www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
International Energy Outlook 2017
forCenter for Strategic and International StudiesSeptember 14, 2017 | Washington, DC
byDr. Ian Mead, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis
• World energy consumption increases from 575 quadrillion Btu in 2015 to 736 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 28% increase
• More than 60% of the increase in energy consumption by 2040 comes from non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India
• Even though demand in the residential and transportation sectors grows more rapidly, the industrial sector still accounts for over 50% of delivered energy consumption in 2040
• Transportation energy use rises by nearly 30% between 2015 and 2040 with almost all of the growth occurring in non-OECD regions
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Key takeaways: IEO2017 Reference case
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• Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing an average 2.3%/year between 2015 and 2040
• Fossil fuels remain dominant, supplying 77% of the world’s energy consumption in 2040
• Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with global consumption increasing an average 1.4%/year between 2015 and 2040
• Coal use remains flat over the projection period as declines in China are largely offset by increases in India and other parts of Asia
• World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow an average 0.6%/year between 2015 and 2040, far below the 1.3%/year growth from 1990 to 2015
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Key takeaways: IEO2017 Reference case (continued)
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Overview
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 4
• The effects of assumptions about economic growth on energy consumption are addressed in the High and Low Economic Growth cases. World gross domestic product increases by 3.3%/year from 2015 to 2040 in the High Economic Growth case and by 2.7%/year in the Low Economic Growth case, compared with 3.0%/year in the Reference case
• The High and Low Oil Price cases address the uncertainty associated with the trajectory of world energy prices. In the Low Oil Price case, the price of North Sea Brent crude in 2016 dollars reaches $43/barrel by 2040, compared with $109/barrel in the Reference case and $226/barrel in the High Oil Price case
• Although the graphics in this presentation focus on projections through 2040, this IEO is the first projection to include model results through 2050, which are available on the IEO page of the EIA website; EIA welcomes feedback on the assumptions and results over the period of 2040–50
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
IEO2017 addresses the uncertainty inherent in energy projections by developing side cases focusing on overall energy consumption
5
0
200
400
600
800
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Non-OECD
OECD
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
World energy consumption rises 28% between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case with most of the increase occurring in non-OECD countriesWorld energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
6
Past trend Outlook
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040
Africa
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Asia accounts for most of the increase in energy use in non-OECD regions in the Reference caseNon-OECD energy consumption by regionquadrillion Btu
7
Asia
Middle East
AmericasEurope andEurasia
Past trend Outlook
1.7
0.2
1.4
1.5
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Total OECD
Japan
OECD Europe
Canada
South Korea
United States
Mexico/Chile
Australia/New Zealand
3.81.41.6
2.42.6
3.03.93.9
4.35.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Total Non-OECD
Russia
Brazil
Other Europe/Eurasia
Other Americas
Middle East
Africa
Other Asia
China
India
Average annual percent change in real GDP by region, 2015-40
Source: EIA and Oxford Economic Model (March 2017)
Economic growth—a major driver of energy demand—is greater on average in non-OECD countries
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 8
OECD Non-OECD
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Reference ReferenceCaseEconomic Growth Economic Growth
Low LowHigh High
OECD
Non-OECD
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Energy consumption varies across the High and Low Economic Growth cases
World energy consumption in three economic growth casesquadrillion Btu
9
2015 2030 2040
0255075
100125150175200225250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
High Oil Price case
Reference case
Low Oil Price case0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Ref RefOil Price
Case
Low High
Liquids
Other
RefOil Price
Case
Low High
World oil prices in three casesreal 2016 dollars per barrel
World energy consumption in three casesquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Future oil prices are another key source of uncertainty in the projections
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 10
2015 2030 2040
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Industrial
BuildingsTransportation
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of energy consumption through 2040 in the Reference caseWorld energy consumption by end-use sectorquadrillion Btu
11
Past trend Outlook
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Petroleum and other liquids
Natural gas
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Energy consumption increases over the projection for all fuels other than coal in the Reference case with renewables being the fastest-growing energy sourceWorld energy consumption by energy sourcequadrillion Btu
12
OutlookPast trend
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD
Non-OECD
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Energy-related CO2 emissions rise by 25% in the non-OECD countries, but they remain relatively flat in the OECD countriesWorld energy-related CO2 emissionsbillion metric tons
13
OutlookPast trend
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Although population and per capita output continue to rise, energy and carbon intensity are projected to continue to fall in the Reference case
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2015 20400123456789
10
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2015 2040
Populationmillion people
Per capita grossdomestic productthousand dollars
Carbon intensitymetric tons CO2 per billion Btu
Energy intensitythousand Btu per dollar
Non-OECD
OECD
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
UnitedStates
OECDEurope
Japan SouthKorea
Russia China India MiddleEast
Africa Brazil
Energy intensityPer capita GDP
Population
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Income and population growth heavily influence energy demand, but improvements in energy intensity can offset associated increases in energy consumptionEnergy intensity, per capita GDP, and population growth in selected regionsaverage annual percent change, 2015-40
15
Liquid fuels markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD Americas
Other non-OECD
OECD Asia
Non-OECD Asia
OECD Europe
OECD Americas
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption grows by 18% between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case because of growth in non-OECD regionsPetroleum and other liquids consumptionmillion barrels per day
17
Past trend Outlook
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Sectoral shares of world liquids use hold relatively constant in the Reference case even as total consumption increasesRefined petroleum and other liquids consumption by end-use sectorquadrillion Btu
18
Transportation
Industrial
BuildingsElectricity
54%
36%
6%4%
56%
36%
5%2%
Note: Percentages express a sector’s liquids consumption compared to total use of these fuels across all end uses.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate
OPEC crude and lease condensate
Other liquids
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Liquid fuel supplies increase from 2015 to 2040 with most of the growth occurring in OPEC crude oil and lease condensateWorld petroleum and other liquids productionmillion barrels per day
19
48
44
21
47
34
16
Past trend Outlook
0 5 10 15
Refinery gain
Natural gas plant liquids
Gas-to-liquids
Coal-to-liquids
Biofuels
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Natural gas plant liquids and biofuels account for most of the other liquids supplies
World other liquids suppliesmillion barrels per day
20152030
2040
20Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Middle East North Africa West Africa South America
2040
2030
2015
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
OPEC crude oil production increases between 2015 and 2040 with most of the growth occurring in the Middle EastOPEC crude and lease condensate production by regionmillion barrels per day
21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Russia United States Canada Brazil Kazakhstan
2015
20402030
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Non-OPEC crude oil production increases less than 2% between 2015 and 2040, but growth in Russia, Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan increases by 24%Crude and lease condensate production million barrels per day
22
Natural gas markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 23
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD
Non-OECD
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
World natural gas consumption increases by 43% from 2015 to 2040 in the Reference case largely because of demand growth in non-OECD countriesWorld natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet
24
Past trend Outlook
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Transportation
Electric power
Industrial
Buildings
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Power and industrial sectors account for nearly 75% of the increase in natural gas consumption between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case Natural gas consumption by sectorquadrillion Btu
25
Past trend Outlook
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Middle East, the United States, and China account for more than 60% of the world increase in natural gas productionIncrease in natural gas production, 2015-40trillion cubic feet
26
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Non-OECD Americas
Canada
Other non-OECD Asia
Africa
Australia and New Zealand
Russia
China
United States
Middle East
0
10
20
30
40
2015 2030 2040 2015 2030 2040 2015 2030 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Shale gas and tight gas become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the United States, but also for China and CanadaNatural gas productiontrillion cubic feet
27
ChinaCanada
Shale gas
Other
United States
Coalbed methaneTight gas
Electricity markets
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 28
OECD and non-OECD net electricity generationtrillion kilowatthours
World electricity use by sectorquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Net electricity generation in non-OECD countries increases twice as fast as in the OECD with building use being a major contributor to growth in the Reference case
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 29
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
non-OECD
OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Industrial
Residential
Commercial
Transportation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
World electricity generation by fueltrillion kilowatthours
Share of net electricity generationpercent
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
In the Reference case, renewables and natural gas provide much of the growth in electricity generation with their combined share of the total rising to 57% in 2040
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
LiquidsNuclear
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables
30
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
World net electricity generation from renewable powertrillion kilowatthours percent share of renewable energy
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Wind and solar dominate growth in renewables and represent two-thirds of related capacity additions by 2040
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Other
GeothermalSolar
Wind
Hydropower
31
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
OECDAmericas
OECDEurope
South Korea Japan0
25
50
75
100
125
150
China Russia India Rest ofWorld
Non-OECD
Nuclear electricity generating capacitygigawatts
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
China accounts for two-thirds of the net increase in world installed nuclear capacity from 2015 to 2040
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
2015
20302040
OECD
32
Industrial and Buildings
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 33
020406080
100120140160180200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD
020406080
100120140160180200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD
Industrial energy consumption by fuelquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
In non-OECD regions, industrial coal consumption declines slightly as natural gas consumption increases in the Reference case
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 34
Liquids
Renewables
Electricity
Coal
Natural gas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Residential sector energy consumption by regionquadrillion Btu
Commercial sector energy consumption by regionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Non-OECD countries drive increases in residential and commercial energy consumption
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 35
Other non-OECD
Non-OECDAsia
OECD
0 10 20 30 40 50
20152040
OECD
0 10 20 30 40 50
Non-OECD Europe…
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Total Non-OECD20152040
Non-OECD
Non-OECD Europe andEurasia
Residential per capita energy consumptionmillion Btu per person
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Per capita residential energy consumption increases in most non-OECD regions
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 36
Transportation
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 37
0
30
60
90
120
150
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Diesel (includingbiodiesel)
Electricity
Motor gasolineand E85
Other liquids
Natural gas
Jet fuel
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
Motor gasoline and diesel continue to dominate the transportation fuel mix, but jet fuel, natural gas, and electricity grow fastest in the Reference caseTransportation sector delivered energy consumption by sourcequadrillion Btu
38
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD
Passenger transportation energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
In non-OECD countries, light-duty vehicle energy consumption grows rapidly; in OECD countries, portion related to air transportation increases
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 39
2-3 wheelvehiclesRailBus
Light duty
Air
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OECD
Freight transportation energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017
Freight transportation energy consumption remains relatively constant in OECD countries while international marine transportation grows in non-OECD countries
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 40
Pipeline
Marine
RailHeavy heavytruckMedium heavytruckLight heavytruck
• This year’s IEO includes supplementary analyses which discuss particular areas of uncertainty and consider how changing assumptions affect results.
• Two of these articles provide alternative projections by varying assumptions.– Transportation and Electric Vehicle Penetration
– Economic Growth Rates (China and India)
• Two of these articles provide insight on how EIA considers evolving energy markets.
– Investment in Oil and Gas Resources
– Paris Climate Agreement
Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
IEO2017 will feature four Issues in Focus articles which will be released over the next several months
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Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017
For more information
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