China’s biomass availability and potential: Is it possible to rescue food security from its
predicament?
Guanghui Xie, PhD 谢光辉
National Energy R&D Center for Non-food Biomass
College of Agronomy and Biotechnology China Agricultural University
国家能源非粮生物质原料研发中心
中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院
World Bioenergy Symposium, Changsha. Oct. 18-19
Food
Energy Enviro- nment
China biomass development faces the challenge of Food-Energy-Environment complexity
Biomass potential from organic wastes
Food
Energy Enviro- nment
Crop residue: 750 Mt (Wang et al. , 2013)
- 88% field residue, 12% process residue - 73% from maize (23%), rice (30%), wheat(20%) - 42% (314 Mt) potentially available for biofuel
- High collection and logistic cost
Forest residue 200 Mt - Competitive usage - High cost
(Xie et al. , 2012)
Livestock excreta: 220-280 Mt (dry)
Waste dead animal: 2.2 billion pigs
Municipal solid waste: 221Mt Organic waste water: 48 billion ton
县级作物秸秆产量分布
全国总县数:2740 旗县区 每县秸秆:0 ~3.1 Mt (平均为0.34 Mt) 秸秆产量1.0 ~ 3.1 Mt: 174旗县区(5.4%) 秸秆产量0.5 ~ 1.0 Mt: 407旗县区(17.3%)
2740 counties in total 0 ~3.1 Mt (0.34 Mt on average) in each county 1.0 ~ 3.1 Mt: 174 counties (5.4%) 0.5 ~ 1.0 Mt: 407 counties (17.3%)
Distribution of crop residue by county
Potential of ethanol from crop residues
5% 10% 15% 30% 50%
60%
70%80%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
15% Surplus the goal In 2020 Ethanol 10 Mt
Assuming that cellulose+hemicellulose=60%
Potential of biomass from marginal land
Food
Energy Enviro- nment
Marginal land (prairie, sparse wood land,
shrub land): 130 Mha (Zhuang et al. , 2011)
Most researchers (Yan et al, 2008; Tang et al., 2010 ; Shi, 2011) over-estimated marginal land (110-164 Mha) for biomass in China
Arable land in total: 137 Mha ≈
Potential of biomass from marginal land
Food
Energy Enviro- nment
Jilin
Xinjiang
Yunan Guizhou
Waste land (prairie, sparse wood
land, shrub land, and unused land):
26.8 Mha (Kou et al 2009)
Marginal land (prairie, sparse wood land,
shrub land): 130 Mha (Zhuang et al. , 2011)
Fragile ecosystems - Mountains - Arid/semiarid - Soil erosion - biodiversity loss
High cost
Liquid biofuel 45 M tone
Easy to be used: 16 % marginal land or 7 M tone ethanol
Potential of contaminated arable land
Food
Energy Enviro- nment
Zin
c
Co
pp
er
A
rsen
ic
Me
rcury
Le
ad
C
adm
ium
Excessively contaminated land in China - MEPC: 10 Million ha(8%)1
- Experts: 20 Mha (17%)2,3
- News reports: 24 Mha (20%)4
Biomass feedstock
Bioethanol 30-60 M tone
(1 Zhou Shengxian. 2011; 6 Wang Huan. 2010; 3 Lu Zixian; 4 Sun et al. 2013; 5 Fan 2010)
China food security predicament
Food
Energy Enviro- nment
Domestic markets Int’l markets
World trade liberalization
Trade barriers
?
Food price August 2014 (CNY/t) CIF Domestic dutiable market price price Rice 3329 3800 Wheat 2007 2507 Corn 1767 2500 Soy 3900 4400
Sugar 2800 6100
Price gap: 500-800 CNY/t 3200 CNY/t (sugar)
INCREASING
Self-sufficiency government: ≥ 95%
DECREASING from 100% 2002 to 89% 2012
Grain relative surplus
Domestic production grain (Mt)
INCREASING 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
19
49
19
62
19
75
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
fee
db
ack
to r
esi
st
DE
China food security predicament
Food
Energy Enviro- nment
Domestic markets Int’l markets
Price gap: 500-800 CNY/t 3200 CNY/t (sugar)
INCREASING
Self-sufficiency continuous
DECREASING
Domestic production grain (Mt)
Grain relative surplus
INCREASING
fee
db
ack
to r
esi
st
DE
To low rate with which China can not feed itself
Nightmare: Nobody can feed China !!!
Combine food and energy (CFE) to improve food security
Food
Enviro- nment
Domestic markets Int’l markets
Price gap: 500-800 CNY/t 3200 CNY/t (sugar)
INCREASING
Self-sufficiency
DECREASING
Domestic production grain (Mt)
Grain relative surplus
INCREASING
fee
db
ack
to r
esi
st
DE
DE
Energy
Stimulate
IN
China
feeds
itself
Potential of food crops for fuels??
Enviro- nment
Domestic markets Int’l markets
Grain relative surplus
Energy
70 210
822 822
1352
1667 1727 1863 1933 2035
2207
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Fuel ethanol production (kt) kt
year Food
5.6 Mt grains 1 % of the total
Additional 2 Mt ethanol
Optimizing land use
• First largest potential organic wastes - rich and diversity, recycling to improve environment - for diversity energy production: power, heat, biogas, ethanol, bio-oil, ……. - high collection and logistic cost • Second one food crops mainly for food security
improvement - ethanol: 200 + 200 Mt (?? or more) • Last and uncertain potential is marginal land - not as large as expected!! - evaluation for the risk of soil erosion and desertification - perennial grasses
Conclusion: biomass availability and potential
Implication: Collaboration for the complexity of Food-Energy-Environment (FEE) Integration
Food
Energy Enviro- nment
Agriculture Forest Energy Environment Society
Governments
Researchers
Industries
Education Inte
rnat
ion
al
Thanks for your attention
NEA
China government plays a crucial role on it