Download - Kostoja e kapitalit Chap 014
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Kapitulli 14
Kostoja e kapitalit
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2010 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Konceptet kresore
• Llogaritja e kostos se kapitalit aksioner
• Llogaritja e kostos se borxhit• Llogaritja e kostos totale te kapitalit
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Thelbi I kapitullit
• Kostoja e kapitalit• Kostoja e kapitalit aksioner• Kostoja e borxhit dhe aksioneve te
preferuara• Kostoja mesatare e ponderuar e kapitalit• Kostot e emetimit dhe Kostoja mesatare e
ponderuar e kapitalit
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Pse kostoja e kapitalit eshte kaq e rendesishme?
• Ne e dime qe kthimi qe marrim nga mjetet varet nga risku i ketyre mjeteve
• Kthimi per investitorin eshte njelloj si kostoja per kompanine
• Kostoja e kapitalit eshte nje tregues I mire se si tregu e sheh riskun e mjeteve
• Njohja e kostos se kapitalit mund te na ndihmoje te percaktojme normen e kerkuar te kthimit per buxhetimin e kapitalit
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Norma e kerkuar e kthimit• Norma e kerkuar e kthimit eshte e njejte
me normen e skontimit dhe bazohet tek risku I flukseve te parave
• Ne na intereson te dime normen e kerkuar te kthimit per nje investim perpara se te llogarisim NPV dhe te marrim nje vendim nese duhet pranuar apo jo
• Na duhet qe te sigurojme nje kthim se paku aq sa norma e kerkuar e kthimit per te kompensuar investitoret per financimin e tyre
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Norma e kerkuar kundrejt Kostos se kapitalit
• Norma e kerkuar e kthimit dhe kostoja e kapitalit mund te perdoren per te njejtin qellim
• Kostoja e kapitalit varet ne rradhe te pare nga perdorimi i fondeve, jo burimet
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Kostoja e kapitalit aksioner
• Eshte kthimi I kerkuar nga aksioneret duke patur parasysh riskun e flukseve te parave te firmes – Risku I biznesit– Risku financiar
• Dy metoda per percaktimin e kostos se kapitalit aksioner– Modeli i rritjes se dividenteve– SML, ose CAPM
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Modeli i rritjes se dividenteve
• (Kostoja e kapitalit aksioner)RE
gPDR
gRDP
E
E
0
1
10
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Modeli i rritjes se dividenteve
• D1 = D0(1+g)
• Kthimi perbehet norma e dividentit dhe norma e fitimeve kapitale: (D1 / P0) dhe (g)
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Shembull i modelit te rritjes se dividenteve
• Suppose that your company is expected to pay a dividend of $1.50 per share next year. There has been a steady growth in dividends of 5.1% per year and the market expects that to continue. The current price is $25. What is the cost of equity?
%1.11111.051.2550.1
ER
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Implementimi i modelit te rritjes se dividenteve
• Per te vleresuar R, duke perdorur kete metode, na duhenketo informacione: P0, D0 dhe g
• Per nje aksion te listuar , dy treguesit e pare mund te gjenden direkt
• g duhet vleresuar– Perdorimi i g-ve historike– Perdor parashikimet e analisteve per g
e ardheshme
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Shembull: Vleresimi i g-se
• Nje metode eshte duke perdorur mesataren e g-ve historike– Viti Dividentet Ndryshimi ne perqindje– 2005 1.23 -– 2006 1.30– 2007 1.36– 2008 1.43– 2009 1.50
(1.30 – 1.23) / 1.23 = 5.7%(1.36 – 1.30) / 1.30 = 4.6%(1.43 – 1.36) / 1.36 = 5.1%(1.50 – 1.43) / 1.43 = 4.9%
Mesatarja = (5.7 + 4.6 + 5.1 + 4.9) / 4 = 5.1% 14-12
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Shembull: Vleresimi i g-se• Nje tjeter metode eshte vlera kohore e parase• Dividenti ne vitin 2005 konsiderohet PV dhe dividenti ne
vitin 2009 konsiderohet si FV• PV= $1.23, FV=$1.50, N=4• Nga makina llogaritese del qe I/Y=5.09%• I/Y= g =5.09%
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Avantazhet dhe disavantazhet e metodes
• Avantazhi– e lehte per t’u perdorur dhe per t’u kuptuar
• Disavantazhet– Aplikohet vetem tek kompanite qe paguajne
divident– E paaplikueshme nqs dividentet nuk rriten me
nje norme te arsyeshme – Shume e ndjeshme ndaj normave te
parashikuara te rritjes – nje rritje e g me1% e rrit koston e kapitalit aksioner me 1%
– Nuk e trajton riskun haptazi
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Metoda e SML -se
• Perdor informacionin e meposhtem per te llogaritur koston e kapitalit aksioner– Norma pa risk, Rf
– Primi i riskut te tregut, E(RM) – Rf
– Risku sistematik i mjetit,
))(( fMEfE RRERR
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Shembull - SML
• Suppose your company has an equity beta of .58, and the current risk-free rate is 6.1%. If the expected market risk premium is 8.6%, what is your cost of equity capital?– RE = 6.1 + .58(8.6) = 11.1%
• Since we came up with similar numbers using both the dividend growth model and the SML approach, we should feel good about our estimate
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Avantazhet dhe disavantazhet e SML-se
• Avantazhet– Konsideron riskun sistematik– I aplikueshem per te gjitha kompanite ,
perderisa mund te llogaritim beten• Disavantazhet
– Duhet te llogaritim primin e riskut te tregut i cili varion gjate kohes
– Duhet te llogaritim koeficentin beta, I cili gjithashtu varion gjate kohes
– Perdorim te kaluaren per te parashikuar te ardhmen
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Shembull – Kostoja e kapitalit aksioner
• Suppose our company has a beta of 1.5. The market risk premium is expected to be 9%, and the current risk-free rate is 6%. We have used analysts’ estimates to determine that the market believes our dividends will grow at 6% per year and our last dividend was $2. Our stock is currently selling for $15.65. What is our cost of equity?– Using SML: RE = 6% + 1.5(9%) = 19.5%
– Using DGM: RE = [2(1.06) / 15.65] + .06 = 19.55%
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Kostoja e borxhit• Eshte norma e kerkuar e kthimit per borxhin e
kompanise• Zakonisht fokusohemi ne koston e borxhit afat-gjate• Norma e kerkuar e kthimit vleresohet me mire duke
llogatitur RDM e borxhit ekzistues• Ne mund te perdorim gjithashtu klasifikimin e
obligacioneve aktuale per te parashikuar riskun e borxhit te ri te emetuar
• Kostoja e borxhit, nuk eshte norma kupon
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Shembull: Kostoja e borxhit
• Suppose we have a bond issue currently outstanding that has 25 years left to maturity. The coupon rate is 9%, and coupons are paid semiannually. The bond is currently selling for $908.72 per $1,000 bond. What is the cost of debt?– N = 50; PMT = 45; FV = 1000; PV = -908.72;
CPT I/Y = 5%; YTM = 5(2) = 10%
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Kostoja e aksioneve te preferuara
• Tipare– Paguan divident konstant– Dividentet parashikohen te paguhen
pambarimisht• Aksioni i preferuar eshte nje i perjetshem,
prandaj perdorimformulen e te perjeteshmes per te llogaritur RP
• RP = D / P0
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Shembull: Kostoja e aksioneve te preferuar
• Your company has preferred stock that has an annual dividend of $3. If the current price is $25, what is the cost of preferred stock?
• RP = 3 / 25 = 12%
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Mesatarja e ponderuar e kostos se kapitalit
• Ne mund te perdorim kostot qe gjetem me lart per te llogaritur koston mesatare te ponderuar te kapitalit per firmen
• Kjo mesatare eshte norma e kerkuar e kthimit per firmen bazuar ne perceptimin e tregut per riskun e mjeteve
• Peshat percaktohen nga perqindja e financimit te mjeteve
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Peshat e struktures se kapitalit
– E = Vlera e tregut e kapitalit aksioner= # e pjeseve te aksioneve shumezuar me cmimin e tregut te aksionit
– D = Vlera e tregut e borxhit= # e obligacineve shumezuar me cmimin e tregut te obligacionit
– V = Vlera e tregut e firmes= D + E• Peshat
– wE = E/V = perqindja e kapitalit aksioner
– wD = D/V = perqindja e borxhit
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Shembull: Peshat specifike
• Suppose you have a market value of equity equal to $500 million and a market value of debt equal to $475 million.– What are the capital structure weights?
• V = 500 million + 475 million = 975 million• wE = E/V = 500 / 975 = .5128 = 51.28%
• wD = D/V = 475 / 975 = .4872 = 48.72%
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Taksat dhe WACC• Duhet te marrim parasysh efektin e taksave per
vleresimin e kostos se kapitalit• Shpenzimet e interesit zvogelojne detyrimin e
taksave– Ky reduktim zvogelon koston e borxhit– Kostoja e borxhit pas taksave = RD(1-TC)
• Divdentet nuk zbriten perpara te ardhurave te taksueshme prandaj taksat nuk kane ndikim tek kostoja e kapitalit aksioner
• WACC = wERE + wDRD(1-TC)• Nqs firma ka edhe aksione te preferuara, atehere
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Shembull– WACC - I• Informacion per
kapitalin aksioner– 50 million shares– $80 per share– Beta = 1.15– Market risk
premium = 9%– Risk-free rate = 5%
• Informacion per borxhin– $1 billion in
outstanding debt ($1000 face value)
– Current quote = 110– Coupon rate = 9%,
semiannual coupons
– 15 years to maturity• Tax rate = 40%
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Shembull– WACC - II
• What is the cost of equity?– RE = 5 + 1.15(9) = 15.35%
• What is the cost of debt?– N = 30; PV = -1,100; PMT = 45; FV = 1,000;
CPT I/Y = 3.9268– RD = 3.927(2) = 7.854%
• What is the after-tax cost of debt?– RD(1-TC) = 7.854(1-.4) = 4.712%
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Shembull– WACC - III
• What are the capital structure weights?– E = 50 million (80) = 4 billion– D = 1 billion (1.10) = 1.1 billion– V = 4 + 1.1 = 5.1 billion– wE = E/V = 4 / 5.1 = .7843
– wD = D/V = 1.1 / 5.1 = .2157
• What is the WACC?– WACC = .7843(15.35%) + .2157(4.712%) =
13.06%
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Eastman Chemical I• Shkoni tek Yahoo Finance dhe gjeni informacion
per Eastman Chemical (EMN)• Tek Profile dhe Key Statistics, ju mund te gjeni
informacionin e meposhtem:– # of shares outstanding– Book value per share– Price per share– Beta
• Under analysts estimates, you can find analysts estimates of earnings growth (use as a proxy for dividend growth)
• The Bonds section at Yahoo Finance can provide the T-bill rate
• Use this information, along with the CAPM and DGM to estimate the cost of equity
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Eastman Chemical II• Shko tek FINRA dhe gjej informacion per
obligacionet e Eastman Chemical– Futni emrin e Eastman Ch per te gjetur
informacion per obligacionet– Ndoshta nuk do te jeni ne gjendje te gjeni
informacion per te gjitha obligacinet e kompanise per shkak te mungeses se ligujditetit ne keto tregje
• Shko tek faqja e SEC per te gjetur informacion per vleren e librit per firmen gjate tremujoreve te fundit
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Eastman Chemical III
• Gjej koston e ponderuar te borxhit– Perdor vlerat e tregut nqs je ne gjendje ta
sigurosh te tere kete informacion– Perdor vlerat e librit nqs informacini per vlerat
e tregut nuk eshte I plote– Shpesh ato jane te perafert
• Llogaritja e WACC– Perdor peshat e vlerave te tregut
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Shembull: puna ne internet
• Gjej parashikime te WACC ne www.valuepro.net
• Shiko supozimet – Si ndikojne supozimet, vleresimin e WACC-
se?
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Tabela 14.1 Kostoja e kapitalit aksioner
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Tabela 14.1 Kostoja e borxhit
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Tabela 14.1 WACC
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Kostoja e kapitalit e projekteve
• Duke perdorur WACC si norme skontimi, kjo eshte nje norme e pershtateshme per projekte qe kane risk te njejte me aktivitetet aktuale te firmes
• Per nje projekt qe nuk ka te njejtin risk me firmen, na duhet te percaktojme normen e pershtateshme te skontimit per projektin
• Nje korporate e thjeshte ka nje WACC jo te pershtateshme per korporata te cilat kane disa divizione
• Shpesh divizionet kerkojen norma te ndryshme skontimi
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Perdorimi I WACC per te gjithe projektet - Shembull
• Cfare do te ndodhe nqs ne perdorim te njejten WACC per te gjithe projektet pavaresisht nga risku?
• Supozoni WACC = 15%Projekti Norma e kerkuar IRRA 20% 17%B 15% 18%C 10% 12%
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Perdorimi I WACC per te gjithe projektet - Shembull
• Cilat projekte duhet te pranohen?– Krahasojme IRR –te me 15 % dhe
pranojme projektet A dhe B• Cilin projekt do te zgjedhim nese
marrim ne konsiderate normen e kerkuar te kthimit? – B dhe C
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Perdorimi I WACC per te gjithe projektet - Shembull
• Kur perdorem WACC, pranuam nje projekt te riskueshem (A) dhe hodhem poshte nje projekt me pak te riskueshem (C) qe do te duhej ta kishim pranuar
• Cfare ndodh me kompanine nqs vepron ne baza te tilla?
• Firma behet me e riskueshme duke rritur ne kete menyre koston e saj te kapitalit
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Metoda e “Lojes se paster”• Perdorimi I nje WACC qe eshte
unike per nje projekt te vecante , bazuar ne kompani me linja te ngjashme biznesi
• Gjeni nje apo me teper kompani qe jane te specializuara ne produktin apo sherbimin qe firma e juaj po merr ne konsiderate
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Metoda e “Lojes se paster”
• Llogaritni beten e seciles kompani
• Beni mesataren• Perdorni kete beta dhe CAPM
per te gjetur normen e pershtateshme te kthimit per nje projekt te atij risku
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Metoda subjektive• Konsideroni riskun e projektit relativ me ate te
kompanise• Nqs projekti ka me shume risk se firma , merrni
nje norme skontimi me te madhe se WACC• E kunderta nqs projekti ka me pak risk se firma• Prape mund te pranoni projekte te gabuara apo te
hidhni poshte projekte te mira por norma e gabimit eshte me e ulet.
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Metoda subjektive- Shembull
Niveli I riskut Norma e skontimit
Very Low Risk WACC – 8%
Low Risk WACC – 3%
Same Risk as Firm WACC
High Risk WACC + 5%
Very High Risk WACC + 10%
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Kostot e emetimit• Norma e kerkuar e kthimit varet nga risku
dhe jo nga menyra se si eshte ngritur kapitali• Megjithate nuk duhet injoruar kostoja e
emetimit te letrave me vlere• Nqs nje kompani ka nevoje per $100 milion
nga shitja e aksioneve te zakonshme kur kostot e emetimit jane10%– Te ardhurat nga shitjet e aksionit do te jene vetem
90% te sasise se shitur– Kapitali I siguruar= $100 milion/1-.1= $111.11
milion
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Quick Quiz• What are the two approaches for computing the
cost of equity?• How do you compute the cost of debt and the after-
tax cost of debt?• How do you compute the capital structure weights
required for the WACC?• What is the WACC?• What happens if we use the WACC for the discount
rate for all projects?• What are two methods that can be used to compute
the appropriate discount rate when WACC isn’t appropriate?
• How should we factor flotation costs into our analysis?
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Comprehensive Problem• A corporation has 10,000 bonds outstanding with
a 6% annual coupon rate, 8 years to maturity, a $1,000 face value, and a $1,100 market price.
• The company’s 100,000 shares of preferred stock pay a $3 annual dividend, and sell for $30 per share.
• The company’s 500,000 shares of common stock sell for $25 per share and have a beta of 1.5. The risk free rate is 4%, and the market return is 12%.
• Assuming a 40% tax rate, what is the company’s WACC?
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Ethics Issues
• How could a project manager adjust the cost of capital (i.e., appropriate discount rate) to increase the likelihood of having his/her project accepted? – Is this ethical or financially sound?
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FUND
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