Download - Market Cycles: Election Years
Market Cycles:Election Years
Eric LaneAssociate Manager, Finance Sector
Disclaimer
My…… political philosophy
…… political history
Why none of this matters
A Brief History of Time
How HAVE the markets performed during Presidential election years?
S&P 500: 1/1999 – 12/2007
The 4-year Cycle: 1950-2004
2008 – A Different Kind of Election
Now onto the present……
The Iowa Electronic Market
Democrat or Republican
The Iowa Electronic Market
Democrat Nomination
Democrat President in 2008?
Traditional Winners Traditional Losers
Metals Trade Regulations
Alternate Energy and Environmental Cleanup
Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae
Homebuilders
Oil and Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Insurance Providers
Defense
Big Pharma
PHLX Drug Index
Big Oil
PHLX Oil Services Index
Barack Obama (D)
Senator from Illinois
Policy Platform Cracking down on mortgage fraud Helping homeowners avoid foreclosure Middle Class Tax Relief
"Making Work Pay" credit American Opportunity Tax credit
Retirement Security Health Care Reform Alternative Energy
Hillary Clinton (D)
Senator from New York
Policy Platform
Ending the foreclosure crisis Stimulus Package High-wage job growth Health Care Reform Leveling the Economic Playing Field
Strategic Energy Fund Special Interest reform Health Care
Trade
John McCain (R)
Senator from Arizona
Policy Platform
Pro-Growth Tax Policy Keep tax rate low Make permanent Bush income and investment tax
cuts Cut the corporate tax rate Ban Internet and cell phone taxes
Social Security and Medicare Trade Health Care Market-based energy reform
The Best Option?
Gridlock.