-
Modelo de planificacin energtica orientado al desarrollo sostenible Ing. Pablo lvarez WatkinsDirector: Dr. Juan Jos Snchez InarejosTesis Doctoral
-
IVObtencin de datos previos
-
IV.- Obtencin de datosReportes por instituciones: ONU, WEC, UE, EIA, IEA Anlisis de los datos: Poblacin y Consumo Energtico Estimacin de datos faltantes Clculo del consumo energtico por persona Anlisis por sectores de consumoAnlisis de recursos y cesta energtica
-
IV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Pases considerados en el trabajo 50 pases: 18 desarrollados y 32 subdesarrollados
-
IV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Elaboracin de Grupos II 2 Criterios bsicos para la agrupacin de los 50 pases del estudio: Crecimiento poblacional en los prximos 50 aos ndice de Desarrollo Humano
-
IV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Elaboracin de Grupos II
Grupos
Grupos
GIGIIBGIIAGIIIBGIIIAGIVBGIVA
IDH200%110
-
IV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Pases por grupoGIIADerrochadoresGIIBDeslumbradosGIIIBInsumisosGIOlvidadosGIIIAVacilantesGIVBDescalabradosGIVAReconstruidosResto no considerado
-
GIGIIBGIIAGIIIBGIVBGIVAGIIIAIV.- Obtencin de datos previos: Pases por grupoEtiopa:% de Crec.: 269.43 %IDH: 0.327E.V.: 44 aos% Lit.: 39 Educ.: 27%PIB: 2000 USD/hab.Japn:% de Crec.: 85.82 %IDH: 0.933E.V.: 81 aos% Lit.: 99 Educ.: 82%PIB: 26 755 USD/hab..
Grfico1
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
C0
Caso 1 - Referencia
CEPE-1950IDH-2000CEPE-2000D - CEPCCEPC 1950/2000IDH-1950
GI23.140.5227.944.80.82820.452
GIIB12.840.7129.5216.680.43500.430
GIIIB26.980.7574.2347.250.36350.510
GIVB103.40.79162.4359.030.63660.770
GIIA325.90.93350.7924.890.92900.900
GIIIA103.220.92166.9163.690.61840.840
GIVA120.350.92160.4640.110.75000.880
C0
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
CEPE-1950
IDH-2000
CEPE-2000
IDH-1950
Caso 0 - Referencia
C1
Caso 1 - Referencia
CEPE-2000IDH-2000CEPE-2050D - CEPCCEPC 2050/2000IDH-2050
GI27.930.5226.53-1.40.94990.500
GIIB29.520.7169.6540.132.35940.75
GIIIB74.190.75159.7185.522.15270.79
GIVB162.430.79353.45191.022.17600.93
GIIA350.780.93410.6959.911.17081
GIIIA166.910.92264.0897.171.58221
GIVA160.460.92349.88189.422.18051
C1
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
CEPE-2000
IDH-2000
CEPE-2050
IDH-2050
Caso 1 - Referencia
IDH - Hist
19751980198519901995200019501955196019651970197519801985199019952000
GI0.3970.4300.4510.4750.4980.518GI0.250.2850.3150.340.370.3970.4300.4510.4750.4980.518
GIIB0.5720.6050.6320.6610.6880.712GIIB0.410.450.480.510.5380.5720.6050.6320.6610.6880.712
GIIIB0.6960.7110.7330.7660.7770.746GIIIB0.60.620.640.660.6750.6960.7110.7330.7660.7770.746
GIVB0.7820.7960.8080.8030.7860.793GIVB0.7150.730.740.7550.7650.7820.7960.8080.8030.7860.793
GIIA0.8450.8610.8770.8960.9180.934GIIA0.7550.7750.790.810.8250.8450.8610.8770.8960.9180.934
GIIIA0.8330.8480.8630.8820.9040.921GIIIA0.7380.7650.780.7950.8150.8330.8480.8630.8820.9040.921
GIVA0.8410.8610.8720.8910.9090.924GIVA0.7460.770.7850.8020.820.8410.8610.8720.8910.9090.924
GI197519801985199019952000
Angola0.3050.3250.3440.3640.3830.403
Arabia Saud0.5870.6460.670.7060.7370.759
Etiopa0.2480.2610.2750.2970.3080.327
Nigeria0.3280.3880.4030.4250.4480.462
Pakistn0.3450.3720.4040.4420.4730.499
Per0.6410.6690.6920.7040.730.747
Rep. Dem. Congo0.3270.3480.3690.3890.410.431
0.3970.4300.4510.4750.4980.518
GIIB
Argelia0.5010.550.60.6390.6630.697
Argentina0.7850.7990.8050.8080.830.844
Brasil0.6440.6790.6920.7130.7370.757
Chile0.7020.7370.7540.7820.8110.831
China0.5230.5540.5910.6250.6810.726
Egipto0.4350.4820.5320.5740.6050.642
Filipinas0.6520.6840.6880.7160.7330.754
India0.4070.4340.4730.5110.5450.577
Indonesia0.4690.530.5820.6230.6640.684
Irn0.5560.5630.6070.6450.6880.721
Kenia0.4430.4890.5120.5330.5230.513
Marruecos0.4290.4740.5080.540.5690.602
Mxico0.6890.7340.7520.7610.7740.796
Tahilandia0.6040.6450.6760.7130.7490.762
Turqua0.5930.6170.6540.6860.7170.742
Venezuela0.7160.7310.7380.7570.7660.77
Vietnm0.5820.5820.5830.6050.6490.688
0.5720.6050.6320.6610.6880.712
GIIIB
Cuba0.7430.7590.7820.8180.8290.796
Sudfrica0.6490.6630.6830.7140.7240.695
0.6960.7110.73250.7660.77650.7455
GIVB
Estonia0.790.80.8290.8280.8250.826
Federacin Rusa0.790.8090.8270.8240.7790.781
Polonia0.7850.790.7930.7920.8080.833
Rumania0.7550.7880.7940.7770.7720.775
Ucrania0.790.7930.7980.7950.7450.748
0.7820.7960.80820.80320.78580.7926
GIIA
Australia0.8440.8610.8730.8880.9270.939
Canada0.8680.8830.9060.9260.9320.94
EE.UU.0.8630.8840.8980.9140.9250.939
Irlanda0.8180.8310.8460.870.8940.925
Luxenburgo0.8310.8460.860.8840.9120.925
0.8450.8610.8770.8960.9180.934
GIIIA
Austria0.840.8540.8670.890.9090.926
Blgica0.8440.8610.8750.8960.9270.939
Dinamarca0.8680.8760.8830.8910.9070.926
Espaa0.8190.8380.8550.8760.8950.913
Finlandia0.8360.8560.8730.8960.9080.93
Francia0.8480.8630.8750.8970.9140.928
Grecia0.8080.8290.8450.8590.8680.885
Holanda0.8610.8730.8880.9020.9220.935
Portugal0.7370.760.7870.8190.8550.88
Reino Unido0.8410.8480.8580.8780.9160.928
Suecia0.8630.8720.8830.8940.9250.941
0.8330.8480.8630.8820.9040.921
GIVA
Alemania0.8410.8590.8680.8850.9070.925
Japn0.8540.8780.8930.9090.9230.933
Italia0.8280.8460.8560.8790.8970.913
0.8410.8610.8720.8910.9090.924
El dato rojo es supuesto
IDH - Hist
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
0000000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
Grupos
Crecimiento en 50 aosIDH
GI-1950368.50.25
GIIB-1950268.90.41
GIIIB-1950279.370.6
GIVB-1950142.230.715
GIIA-1950178.570.755
GIIIA-1950127.990.738
GIVA-1950133.960.746
GI-2000273.050.518
GIIB-2000143.580.712
GIIIB-2000106.720.746
GIVB-200072.280.793
GIIA-2000147.250.934
GIIIA-2000103.990.921
GIVA-200085.790.924
GI-2050184.140.5
GIIB-2050119.690.75
GIIIB-2050108.860.79C1
GIVB-205067.30.93
GIIA-2050136.211
GIIIA-205097.771
GIVA-205078.581
Grupos
000000000000000000000
GI-1950
GIIB-1950
GIIIB-1950
GIVB-1950
GIIA-1950
GIIIA-1950
GIVA-1950
GI-2000
GIIB-2000
GIIIB-2000
GIVB-2000
GIIA-2000
GIIIA-2000
GIVA-2000
GI-2050
GIIB-2050
GIIIB-2050
GIVB-2050
GIIA-2050
GIIIA-2050
GIVA-2050
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
Transicin de los grupos C0-C1
sintesis
0000000
GI-2000
GIIB-2000
GIIIB-2000
GIVB-2000
GIIA-2000
GIIIA-2000
GIVA-2000
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
Grupos con datos ao 2000
Ev grupos-C1
xyxy
IDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aos
GI-19500.25368.50.25368.5GI-1950
GI-19600.315356.60.315356.6GI-1960
GI-19700.37347.310.37347.31GI-1970
GIIB-19500.41268.90.41268.9GIIB-1950
GI-19800.43337.220.43337.22GI-1980
GI-19900.475302.880.475302.88GI-1990
GIIB-19600.48226.50.48226.5GIIB-1960
GI-20000.518273.050.518273.05GI-2000
GIIB-19700.538195.350.538195.35GIIB-1970
GIIIB-19500.6279.370.6279.37GIIIB-1950
GIIB-19800.605176.680.605176.68GIIB-1980
GIIIB-19600.64195.710.64195.71GIIIB-1960
GIIB-19900.661160.790.661160.79GIIB-1990
GIIIB-19700.6751500.675150GIIIB-1970
GIIIB-19800.711127.20.711127.2GIIIB-1980
GIIB-20000.712143.580.712143.58GIIB-2000
GIVB-19500.715142.230.715142.23GIVB-1950
GIIIA-19500.738127.990.738127.99GIIIA-1950
GIVB-19600.74118.370.74118.37GIVB-1960
GIIIB-20000.746106.720.746106.72GIIIB-2000
GIVA-19500.746133.960.746133.96GIVA-1950
GIIA-19500.755178.570.755178.57GIIA-1950
GIVB-19700.765101.20.765101.2GIVB-1970
GIIIB-19900.766115.680.766115.68GIIIB-1990
GIIIA-19600.78120.90.78120.9GIIIA-1960
GIVA-19600.7851230.785123GIVA-1960
GIIA-19600.79166.90.79166.9GIIA-1960
GIVB-20000.79372.28GIVB-2000
GIVB-19800.79687.46GIVB-1980
GIVB-19900.80376.94GIVB-1990
GIIIA-19700.815116.610.815116.61GIIIA-1970
GIVA-19700.82112.890.82112.89GIVA-1970
GIIA-19700.825159.380.825159.38GIIA-1970
GIIIA-19800.848111.850.848111.85GIIIA-1980
GIVA-19800.861101.410.861101.41GIVA-1980
GIIA-19800.861155.380.861155.38GIIA-1980
GIIIA-19900.882108.380.882108.38GIIIA-1990
GIVA-19900.89192.620.89192.62GIVA-1990
GIIA-19900.896150.040.896150.04GIIA-1990
GIIIA-20000.921103.990.921103.99GIIIA-2000
GIVA-20000.92485.790.92485.79GIVA-2000
GIIA-20000.934147.250.934147.25GIIA-2000
Ev grupos-C1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Tendencia de los grupos 1950-2000
Ev-Grupos-C2a
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Tendencia de los grupos 1950-2000
Ev-Grupos-C2b
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Tendencia de los grupos 1950-2000
EV-Grupos-C2c
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Tendencia 'potencial' de los grupos 1950-2000(3 datos menos)
EV-grupos-C4a
195020102020203020402050
C1Crecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDHCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH
GI368.50.25242.940.514216.760.511197.480.507187.30.504184.140.5368.50.25
GIIB268.90.41132.860.72126.680.727122.040.735119.760.742119.690.75356.60.315
GIIIB279.370.6107.190.754107.750.763109.140.772108.880.781108.860.79347.310.37
1950GIVB142.230.71570.630.8269.250.84868.180.87567.40.90367.30.93268.90.41
GIIA178.570.755141.890.947138.940.96136.420.974136.340.987136.211337.220.43
GIIIA127.990.738101.470.93799.920.95398.650.96897.760.98497.771302.880.475
GIVA133.960.74681.760.93979.850.95478.860.9778.630.98578.581226.50.48
GI356.60.315184.140.5
GIIB226.50.48187.30.504
GIIIB195.710.64197.480.507
1960GIVB118.370.74216.760.511
GIIA166.90.79242.940.514
GIIIA120.90.78273.050.518
GIVA1230.785195.350.538
GI347.310.37279.370.6
GIIB195.350.538176.680.605
GIIIB1500.675195.710.64
1970GIVB101.20.765160.790.661
GIIA159.380.8251500.675
GIIIA116.610.815127.20.711
GIVA112.890.82143.580.712
GI337.220.43142.230.715
GIIB176.680.605132.860.72
GIIIB127.20.711126.680.727
1980GIVB87.460.796122.040.735
GIIA155.380.861127.990.738
GIIIA111.850.848118.370.74
GIVA101.410.861119.760.742
GI302.880.475106.720.746
GIIB160.790.661133.960.746
GIIIB115.680.766107.190.754
1990GIVB76.940.803178.570.755
GIIA150.040.896107.750.763
GIIIA108.380.882101.20.765
GIVA92.620.891115.680.766
GI273.050.518119.690.75
GIIB143.580.712109.140.772
GIIIB106.720.746120.90.78
2000GIVB72.280.793108.880.781
GIIA147.250.9341230.785
GIIIA103.990.921108.860.79
GIVA85.790.924166.90.79
72.280.793
87.460.796
76.940.803
116.610.815
70.630.82
112.890.82
159.380.825
69.250.848
111.850.848
101.410.861
155.380.861
68.180.875
108.380.882
92.620.891
150.040.896
67.40.903
103.990.921
85.790.924
67.30.93
147.250.934
101.470.937
81.760.939
141.890.947
99.920.953
79.850.954
138.940.96
98.650.968
78.860.97
136.420.974
97.760.984
78.630.985
136.340.987
78.581
97.771
136.211
EV-grupos-C4a
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
EV-grupos-C4b
11111111111111
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
C1
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
C2aCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25
GI1950368.50.25350.060.315
1960350.060.315333.80.37
1970333.80.37268.980.41
1980321.410.43321.410.43
1990295.890.475295.890.475
2000281.360.518240.710.48
2010272.860.557281.360.518
2020266.520.596222.290.538
2030262.210.634272.860.557
2040259.850.673266.520.596
279.370.6
2050259.370.712Crecimiento en 50 aosIDH212.710.605
262.210.634
GIIB1950268.980.41GIIA1950178.570.755209.070.64
1960240.710.481960166.90.79203.980.661
1970222.290.5381970159.380.825259.850.673
1980212.710.6051980155.380.861172.050.675
1990203.980.6611990150.040.896156.480.711
2000191.020.7122000147.250.934191.020.712
2010173.580.7562010141.890.947259.370.712
2020161.260.8012020138.940.96142.230.715
2030153.20.8452030136.420.974127.990.738
2040148.880.892040136.340.987124.570.74
2050148.020.9342050136.211133.960.746
148.040.746
GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738178.570.755
1960209.070.641960123.680.78173.580.756
1970172.050.6751970123.580.815114.730.765
1980156.480.7111980123.630.848150.910.766
1990150.910.7661990125.90.882123.680.78
2000148.040.7462000128.630.921148.030.783
2010148.030.7832010130.770.937126.310.785
2020148.060.8212020132.440.953166.90.79
2030148.070.8582030133.590.968118.830.793
2040148.090.8962040134.240.984109.40.796
2050148.090.9342050134.371161.260.801
108.720.803
GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.746123.580.815
1960124.570.741960126.310.785122.820.82
1970114.730.7651970122.820.82129.170.821
1980109.40.7961980119.20.861148.060.821
1990108.720.8031990119.660.891159.380.825
2000118.830.7932000123.080.924153.20.845
2010129.170.8212010127.250.939123.630.848
2020137.650.8492020130.520.954137.650.849
2030141.040.8782030132.830.97148.070.858
2040147.330.9062040134.130.985119.20.861
2050148.040.9342050134.391155.380.861
141.040.878
125.90.882
148.880.89
119.660.891
148.090.896
150.040.896
147.330.906
128.630.921
123.080.924
147.250.934
148.020.934
148.040.934
148.090.934
130.770.937
127.250.939
141.890.947
132.440.953
130.520.954
138.940.96
133.590.968
132.830.97
136.420.974
134.240.984
134.130.985
136.340.987
134.371
134.391
136.211
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
C2a
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
Evolucin de los grupos hacia el GIIA - 1950-2050
C2bCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25
GI1950368.50.25344.730.315
1960344.730.315316.160.37
1970316.160.37268.980.41
1980286.570.43286.570.43
1990242.760.475242.760.475
2000207.550.518239.390.48
2010182.860.563207.550.518
2020165.860.609218.210.538
2030154.950.654182.860.563
2040149.160.7279.370.6
2050148.020.722Crecimiento en 50 aosIDH204.520.605
165.860.609
GIIB1950268.980.41GIIA1950178.570.755190.590.661
1960239.390.481960161.550.79207.860.64
1970218.210.5381970149.280.825154.950.654
1980204.520.6051980138.910.861168.760.675
1990190.590.6611990128.170.896149.160.7
2000172.030.7122000118.160.934150.270.711
2010151.20.7542010110.150.947172.030.712
2020136.890.7962020104.360.96142.230.715
2030127.720.8372030100.520.974148.020.722
2040122.850.879204098.440.987127.990.738
2050121.90.921205098.031123.820.74
133.080.746
GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738133.960.746
1960207.860.641960120.940.78151.20.754
1970168.760.6751970116.610.815178.570.755
1980150.270.7111980111.850.848112.460.765
1990140.760.7661990108.380.882140.760.766
2000133.080.7462000103.990.921120.940.78
2010128.760.782010101.470.937128.760.78
2020125.580.815202099.920.953125.120.785
2030123.40.851203098.650.968161.550.79
2040122.230.886204097.760.984106.650.793
2050122.010.921205097.771104.930.796
136.890.796
GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.746101.260.803
1960123.820.741960125.120.785116.610.815
1970112.460.7651970118.990.82125.580.815
1980104.930.7961980111.530.861112.190.819
1990101.260.8031990106.790.891118.990.82
2000106.650.7932000103.450.924149.280.825
2010112.190.8192010101.360.932127.720.837
2020116.610.844202099.790.947116.610.844
2030119.750.87203098.720.962111.850.848
2040121.530.895204098.120.985123.40.851
2050121.880.9212050981111.530.861
138.910.861
119.750.87
122.850.879
108.380.882
122.230.886
106.790.891
121.530.895
128.170.896
103.990.921
121.90.921
121.880.921
122.010.921
103.450.924
118.160.934
101.360.932
101.470.937
99.790.947
110.150.947
99.920.953
104.360.96
98.720.962
98.650.968
100.520.974
97.760.984
98.120.985
98.440.987
97.771
981
98.031
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
C2b
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
Evolucin de los grupos hacia el GIIIA - 1950-2050
C2cCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25
GI1950368.50.25344.730.315
1960344.730.315316.160.37
1970316.160.37268.980.41
1980286.570.43286.570.43
1990242.760.475242.760.475
2000207.550.518239.390.48
2010182.860.563207.550.518
2020165.860.609218.210.538
2030154.950.654182.860.563
2040149.160.7279.370.6
2050148.020.745Crecimiento en 50 aosIDH204.520.605
165.860.609
GIIB1950268.980.41GIIA1950178.570.755207.260.64
1960239.390.481960160.710.79154.950.654
1970218.210.5381970146.680.825190.590.661
1980204.520.6051980133.850.861167.980.675
1990190.590.6611990120.220.896149.160.7
2000172.030.7122000107.070.934147.230.711
2010151.20.754201096.740.947172.030.712
2020136.890.797202089.480.96142.230.715
2030127.720.839203084.750.974127.990.738
2040122.850.882204082.210.987123.450.74
2050121.90.924205081.711148.020.745
126.120.746
GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738133.960.746
1960207.260.641960121.870.78151.20.754
1970167.980.6751970117.650.815178.570.755
1980147.230.7111980111.460.848111.340.765
1990135.910.7661990105.380.882135.910.766
2000126.120.746200097.950.921121.870.78
20101200.781201091.50.9371200.781
2020114.960.817202086.830.953123.070.785
2030112.530.852203083.720.968160.710.79
2040110.910.888204082.040.984100.990.793
2050110.60.924205081.711102.750.796
136.890.797
GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.74697.690.803
1960123.450.741960123.070.785117.650.815
1970111.340.7651970112.90.82114.960.817
1980102.750.7961980101.410.861104.480.819
199097.690.803199092.620.891112.90.82
2000100.990.793200085.790.924146.680.825
2010104.480.819201081.760.939127.720.839
2020107.220.845202079.850.954107.220.845
2030109.160.872203078.860.97111.460.848
2040110.250.898204078.630.985112.530.852
2050110.470.924205078.581101.410.861
133.850.861
109.160.872
105.380.882
122.850.882
110.910.888
92.620.891
120.220.896
110.250.898
97.950.921
85.790.924
110.470.924
110.60.924
121.90.924
107.070.934
91.50.937
81.760.939
96.740.947
86.830.953
79.850.954
89.480.96
83.720.968
78.860.97
84.750.974
82.040.984
78.630.985
82.210.987
78.581
81.711
81.711
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
C2c
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
C4aCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25
GI1950368.50.25344.260.315
1960344.260.315314.720.37
1970314.720.37268.980.41
1980283.810.43283.810.43
1990238.720.475238.720.475
2000202.250.518236.090.48
2010176.720.574202.250.518
2020159.270.631208.230.538
2030148.120.687176.720.574
2040142.230.744279.370.6
2050141.070.8Crecimiento en 50 aosIDH185.130.605
159.270.631
GIIB1950268.980.41GIIA1950178.570.755195.740.64
1960236.090.481960161.170.79160.30.661
1970208.230.5381970148.130.825150.70.675
1980185.130.6051980136.640.861148.120.687
1990160.30.6611990124.580.896127.250.711
2000131.580.7122000113.110.934131.580.712
2010106.040.732010103.990.947142.230.715
202089.730.747202097.490.96106.040.73
203079.820.765203093.20.974127.990.738
204074.730.782204090.890.987118.370.74
205073.740.8205090.441142.230.744
106.730.746
GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738133.960.746
1960195.740.641960120.940.7889.730.747
1970150.70.6751970116.610.815178.570.755
1980127.250.7111980111.850.84879.820.765
1990115.680.7661990108.380.882101.20.765
2000106.730.7462000103.990.921115.680.766
2010107.190.7762010101.470.937107.190.776
2020107.750.807202099.920.953120.940.78
2030109.140.838203098.650.96874.730.782
2040108.80.869204097.760.984123.070.785
2050108.860.9205097.771161.170.79
72.280.793
GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.74687.460.796
1960118.370.741960123.070.78573.740.8
1970101.20.7651970112.90.82141.070.8
198087.460.7961980101.410.86176.950.803
199076.950.803199092.620.891107.750.807
200072.280.793200085.790.924116.610.815
201070.630.834201081.760.939112.90.82
202069.250.876202079.850.954148.130.825
203068.180.917203078.860.9770.630.834
204067.40.959204078.630.985109.140.838
205067.31205078.581111.850.848
101.410.861
136.640.861
108.80.869
69.250.876
108.380.882
92.620.891
124.580.896
108.860.9
68.180.917
103.990.921
85.790.924
113.110.934
101.470.937
81.760.939
103.990.947
99.920.953
79.850.954
67.40.959
97.490.96
98.650.968
78.860.97
93.20.974
97.760.984
78.630.985
90.890.987
67.31
78.581
90.441
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C4a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
C4a
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C4a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C4a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
C4bCrecimiento en 50 aosIDH368.50.25
GI1950368.50.25356.610.315
1960356.610.315347.310.37
1970347.310.37268.90.41
1980337.220.43337.220.43
1990279.870.475279.870.475
2000207.990.518226.540.48
2010151.040.574207.990.518
2020110.650.631195.350.538
203085.750.687151.040.574
204077.890.744279.370.6
205082.220.8Crecimiento en 50 aosIDH176.680.605
110.650.631
GIIB1950268.90.41GIIA1950178.570.755198.370.64
1960226.540.481960166.90.79157.660.661
1970195.350.5381970159.380.825154.990.675
1980176.680.6051980155.380.86185.750.687
1990157.660.6611990146.840.896129.190.711
2000134.230.7122000136.560.934134.230.712
2010116.820.72962010120.390.947142.230.715
2020104.660.7472020105.980.96116.820.7296
203094.70.765203094.760.974127.990.738
204090.110.782204090.290.987118.930.74
205091.110.8205089.49177.890.744
101.720.746
GIIIB1950279.370.6GIIIA1950127.990.738133.960.746
1960198.370.641960120.940.78140.660.747
1970154.990.6751970116.610.815178.570.755
1980129.190.7111980111.850.84894.70.765
1990113.180.7661990108.380.882103.510.765
2000101.720.7462000103.160.921113.180.766
201098.210.7732010101.110.93998.210.773
202095.650.82020100.020.953120.940.78
203096.490.828203099.190.96890.110.782
204098.210.855204098.750.984123.070.785
205099.10.920501001166.90.79
87.240.793
GIVB1950142.230.715GIVA1950133.960.74693.310.796
1960118.930.741960123.070.78582.220.8
1970103.510.7651970112.90.8291.110.8
198093.310.7961980101.880.86195.650.8
199086.310.803199096.190.891
200087.240.793200093.440.924116.610.815
201091.840.834201093.450.939112.90.82
202095.740.876202095.780.954159.380.825
203097.830.917203098.810.9796.490.828
204099.560.95920401000.98586.310.803
205010012050100191.840.834
111.850.848
98.210.855
101.880.861
155.380.861
95.740.876
108.380.882
96.190.891
146.840.896
99.10.9
97.830.917
103.160.921
93.440.924
136.560.934
93.450.939
101.110.939
120.390.947
100.020.953
95.780.954
99.560.959
105.980.96
99.190.968
98.810.97
94.760.974
98.750.984
1000.985
90.290.987
89.491
1001
1001
1001
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62242.94132.86107.1970.63141.89101.4781.76216.76126.68107.7569.25138.9499.9279.85197.48122.04109.1468.18136.4298.6578.86187.3119.76108.8867.4136.3497.7678.63184.14119.69108.8667.3136.2197.7778.58
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
C1-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.6200000000000000
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
C2a-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
C2b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
368.5268.9279.37142.23178.57127.99133.96273.05143.58106.7272.28147.25103.9985.79356.6226.5195.71118.37166.9120.9123347.31195.35150101.2159.38116.61112.89337.22176.68127.287.46155.38111.85101.41302.88160.79115.6876.94150.04108.3892.62
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GI
GIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
C2c-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2000
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C4b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
C4b
C4b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GI
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIIIB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIVB
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIIIA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
GIVA
IDH
% de crecimiento en 50 aos
C4b-Transicin de los grupos - 1950-2050
-
VPrimer modelo basado en la necesidad energticaModelo Bsico Caso C1 la Referencia
-
V.- Primer modelo basado en la Necesidad Energtica De fcil elaboracin (por 1 persona) Accesible al mayor nmero de personas posible Que integre el mayor nmero de conceptos propuestos Que sirva de base para la elaboracin de nuevos modelosExcel
-
Se gener un archivo base sobre el que se desarrollan todos los casos a analizar. Se sigui el desarrollo por pasos, acarreando datos de los pasos anteriores. Desarrollado, no de forma general, sino especficamente para los 7 grupos generados El archivo cuenta con 21 hojas, 218 tablas y 129 grficasV.- Primer modelo basado en la Necesidad Energtica
-
Paso 1.- Estimar el consumo energtico mundialx=V.- Desarrollo del primer modelo
GI
Paso 1
Grupo IAngola, Arabia Saudita, Etiopa, Nigeria, Pakistn, PerGrupo I
y Repblica Democrtica del Congo
Caso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia
P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.
Sectores de consumo energtico
Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro
2000432.720.1227.9312.092000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
2005490.590.1327.4413.46Industria111.331.331.481.631.812.002.212.422.662.893.173.45
2010549.530.1226.9114.79Transportes121.451.451.621.771.982.182.412.642.903.163.463.76
2015624.540.1426.3916.48Otros sectores536.416.417.137.848.739.6410.6411.6412.7913.9415.2716.61
2020695.880.1126.1418.19Usos no energticos20.240.240.270.300.330.360.400.440.480.530.580.63
2025781.290.1225.7020.08Prdidas222.662.662.963.253.634.004.424.835.315.796.346.89
2030863.010.1025.4621.97Total:100%12.0912.0913.4614.7916.4818.1920.0821.9724.1426.3128.8131.34
2035945.610.1025.5324.1412.0913.4614.7916.4818.1920.0821.9724.1426.3128.8131.34
20401028.120.0925.5926.31
20451111.570.0825.9228.81
20501181.550.0626.5231.34
227.66
(total de referencia-11 aos)
% de Cambio
Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GI en el 2000Sectores en % del GI en el 2050
2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.518Industria25.04Industria1111
273.05%94.96%259.29%20050.516Transportes27.32Transportes1212
20100.514Otros sectores120.66Otros sectores5353
El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC20150.513Usos no energticos4.55Usos no energticos22
20200.511Prdidas50.08Prdidas2222
20250.509Total:227.66
20300.507
20350.505
20400.504
20450.502
20500.5
GI
Industria
Transportes
Otros sectores
Usos no energticos
Prdidas
GIIB
Paso 1
Grupo IIBArgelia, Argentina, Brasil, China, Chile, Egipto, Filipinas, India, IndonesiaGrupo IIB
Irn, Kenia, Marruecos, Mxico, Tailandia, Turqua, Venezuela, y Vietnam
Caso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia
P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.
Sectores de consumo energtico
Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro
20003352.460.129.5298.952000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
20053555.560.0632.29114.82Industria2524.7424.7428.7132.6537.2441.8847.4753.0859.8866.6375.2483.82
20103755.460.0634.78130.60Transportes1817.8117.8120.6723.5126.8130.1534.1838.2243.1147.9854.1760.35
20153919.230.0438.01148.97Otros sectores2928.7028.7033.3037.8743.2048.5855.0661.5769.4677.2987.2897.23
20204082.690.0441.03167.50Usos no energticos43.963.964.595.225.966.707.598.499.5810.6612.0413.41
20254238.540.0444.80189.87Prdidas2423.7523.7527.5631.3435.7540.2045.5750.9557.4863.9772.2380.46
20304393.050.0448.33212.31Total:10098.9598.95114.82130.60148.97167.50189.87212.31239.50266.53300.95335.26
20354534.920.0352.81239.5098.95114.82130.60148.97167.50189.87212.31239.50266.53300.95335.26
20404640.350.0257.44266.53
20454727.610.0263.66300.95
20504813.330.0269.65335.26
2205.26
(total de referencia-11 aos)
% de Cambio
Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIB en el 2000Sectores en % del GIIB en el 2050
2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.712Industria551.32Industria2525
143.58%235.98%338.82%20050.716Transportes396.95Transportes1818
20100.720Otros sectores639.53Otros sectores2929
El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC20150.723Usos no energticos88.21Usos no energticos44
20200.727Prdidas529.26Prdidas2424
20250.731Total:2205.26
20300.735
20350.739
20400.742
20450.746
20500.75
GIIB
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Industria
Transportes
Otros sectores
Usos no energticos
Prdidas
GIIIB
Paso 1
Grupo IIIBCuba y SudfricaGrupo IIIB
Caso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia
P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.
Sectores de consumo energtico
Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro
200054.5630.0474.194.052000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
200554.8920.0180.894.44Industria240.970.971.071.171.301.431.561.701.831.972.102.23
201055.2560.0187.954.86Transportes180.730.730.800.870.971.071.171.271.381.471.571.67
201556.2650.0296.155.41Otros sectores19.30.780.780.860.941.041.151.261.371.471.581.691.79
202055.909-0.01106.785.97Usos no energticos2.70.110.110.120.130.150.160.180.190.210.220.240.25
202555.475-0.01117.536.52Prdidas361.461.461.601.751.952.152.352.552.752.953.153.35
203056.1410.01126.117.08Total:1004.054.054.444.865.415.976.527.087.648.198.749.30
203556.7910.01134.537.644.054.444.865.415.976.527.087.648.198.749.30
204057.2370.01143.098.19
204557.7380.01151.378.74
205058.230.01159.719.30
72.20
(total de referencia-11 aos)
% de Cambio
Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIIB en el 2000Sectores en % del GIIIB en el 2050
2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.745Industria17.33Industria2424
106.72%215.28%229.74%20050.750Transportes13.00Transportes1818
20100.754Otros sectores13.93Otros sectores19.319.3
El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC20150.759Usos no energticos1.95Usos no energticos2.72.7
20200.763Prdidas25.99Prdidas3636
20250.768Total:72.20
20300.772
20350.777
20400.781
20450.786
20500.79
GIIIB
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Industria
Transportes
Otros sectores
Usos no energticos
Prdidas
GIVB
Paso 1
Grupo IVBEstonia, Federacin Rusa, Polonia, Rumania, y UcraniaGrupo IVB
Caso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia
P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.
Sectores de consumo energtico
Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro
2000257.9-0.01162.4341.892000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
2005250.131-0.03174.0743.54Industria2610.8910.8911.3211.7412.3112.8713.4914.1214.8715.6216.3817.13
2010243.836-0.03185.1245.14Transportes7.53.143.143.273.393.553.713.894.074.294.514.724.94
2015236.792-0.03199.9247.34Otros sectores2811.7311.7312.1912.6413.2613.8614.5315.2016.0116.8317.6418.45
2020229.758-0.03215.4049.49Usos no energticos2.51.051.051.091.131.181.241.301.361.431.501.571.65
2025222.679-0.03233.0351.89Prdidas3615.0815.0815.6716.2517.0417.8218.6819.5420.5921.6322.6823.72
2030215.6-0.03251.8154.29Total:10041.8941.8943.5445.1447.3449.4951.8954.2957.1960.0962.9965.89
2035208.537-0.03274.2457.1941.8943.5445.1447.3449.4951.8954.2957.1960.0962.9965.89
2040201.493-0.03298.2260.09
2045193.95-0.04324.7762.99
2050186.42-0.04353.4565.89
579.74
(total de referencia-11 aos)
% de Cambio
Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIVB en el 2000Sectores en % del GIVB en el 2050
2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.793Industria150.73Industria2626
72.28%217.60%157.29%20050.807Transportes43.48Transportes7.57.5
20100.820Otros sectores162.33Otros sectores2828
El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC20150.834Usos no energticos14.49Usos no energticos2.52.5
20200.848Prdidas208.71Prdidas3636
20250.862Total:579.74
20300.875
20350.889
20400.903
20450.916
20500.93
GIVB
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Industria
Transportes
Otros sectores
Usos no energticos
Prdidas
GIIA
Paso 1
Grupo IIAAustralia, Canad, EE.UU., Irlanda, LuxemburgoGrupo IIA
Caso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia
P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.
Sectores de consumo energtico
Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro
2000327.3210.04392.49128.472000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
2005344.3190.05390.83134.57Industria24.431.3531.3532.8434.5236.1937.7339.6341.2842.7144.1946.0348.30
2010361.3380.05391.54141.48Transportes26.734.3034.3035.9337.7839.6041.2943.3645.1746.7348.3550.3652.85
2015376.9260.04393.47148.31Otros sectores2228.2628.2629.6131.1332.6334.0235.7337.2238.5139.8441.5043.55
2020392.5390.04393.96154.65Usos no energticos1.72.182.182.292.412.522.632.762.882.983.083.213.36
2025408.9020.04397.16162.40Prdidas25.232.3732.3733.9135.6537.3738.9740.9242.6344.1145.6347.5349.88
2030425.2770.04397.76169.16Total:100128.47128.47134.57141.48148.31154.65162.40169.16175.03181.09188.63197.94
2035438.9550.03398.74175.03128.47134.57141.48148.31154.65162.40169.16175.03181.09188.63197.94
2040452.6460.03400.07181.09
2045467.310.03403.65188.63
2050481.9750.03410.69197.94
1781.73
(total de referencia-11 aos)
% de Cambio
Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIA en el 2000Sectores en % del GIIA en el 2050
2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.934Industria434.74Industria24.424.4
147.25%104.64%154.07%20050.941Transportes475.72Transportes26.726.7
20100.947Otros sectores391.98Otros sectores2222
El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC hasta alcanzar el mximo = 120150.954Usos no energticos30.29Usos no energticos1.71.7
20200.960Prdidas448.99Prdidas25.225.2
20250.967Total:1781.73
20300.974
20350.980
20400.987
20450.993
20501
GIIA
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Industria
Transportes
Otros sectores
Usos no energticos
Prdidas
GIIIA
Paso 1
Grupo IIIAAustria, Blgica, Dinamarca, Espaa, Finlandia, Francia, Grecia,Grupo IIIA
Holanda, Portugal, Reino Unido, y Suecia
Caso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia
P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.
Sectores de consumo energtico
Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro
2000232.640.020167.6439.002000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
2005235.1850.011175.7641.34Industria23.39.099.099.6310.0810.5511.0211.6112.2012.8513.5014.1914.89
2010237.360.009182.2043.25Transportes20.37.927.928.398.789.199.6010.1110.6311.2011.7612.3712.97
2015238.7950.006189.5845.27Otros sectores25.810.0610.0610.6611.1611.6812.2012.8513.5114.2314.9515.7216.48
2020239.950.005197.0747.29Usos no energticos3.31.291.291.361.431.491.561.641.731.821.912.012.11
2025240.9450.004206.7849.82Prdidas27.310.6510.6511.2911.8112.3612.9113.6014.3015.0615.8216.6317.44
2030241.960.004216.4752.38Total:10039.0039.0041.3443.2545.2747.2949.8252.3855.1657.9560.9263.89
2035242.5050.002227.4655.1639.0041.3443.2545.2747.2949.8252.3855.1657.9560.9263.89
2040243.050.002238.4157.95
2045242.475-0.002251.2460.92
2050241.93-0.002264.0863.89
556.25
(total de referencia-11 aos)
% de Cambio
Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIIA en el 2000Sectores en % del GIIIA en el 2050
2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.921Industria129.61Industria23.323.3
103.99%157.53%163.82%20050.929Transportes112.92Transportes20.320.3
20100.937Otros sectores143.51Otros sectores25.825.8
El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC hasta alcanzar el mximo = 120150.945Usos no energticos18.36Usos no energticos3.33.3
20200.953Prdidas151.86Prdidas27.327.3
20250.961Total:556.25
20300.968
20350.976
20400.984
20450.992
20501
GIIIA
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Industria
Transportes
Otros sectores
Usos no energticos
Prdidas
GIVA
Paso 1
Grupo IVAAlemania, Italia y JapnGrupo IVA
Caso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia
P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.P = Ref, CEPC = ref, SC = ref.
Sectores de consumo energtico
Indice de crecimiento poblacional por lustro
2000267.540.01160.4642.932000 - ref.20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050
2005268.280.003172.4346.26Industria2912.4512.4513.4214.2015.0915.9816.8618.0319.2120.3921.8323.29
2010267.51-0.003183.1048.98Transportes19.58.378.379.029.5510.1410.7511.3412.1312.9213.7114.6815.66
2015264.41-0.01196.7452.02Otros sectores2410.3010.3011.1011.7612.4813.2313.9614.9215.9016.8718.0719.27
2020261.02-0.01211.1355.11Usos no energticos1.70.730.730.790.830.880.940.991.061.131.201.281.37
2025256.43-0.02226.7758.15Prdidas25.811.0811.0811.9412.6413.4214.2215.0016.0417.0918.1419.4220.72
2030251.85-0.02246.8962.18Total:10042.9342.9346.2648.9852.0255.1158.1562.1866.2470.3175.2980.30
2035246.27-0.02268.9766.2442.9346.2648.9852.0255.1158.1562.1866.2470.3175.2980.30
2040240.7-0.02292.1170.31
2045235.11-0.02320.2375.29
2050229.51-0.02349.8880.30
657.77
(total de referencia-11 aos)
% de Cambio
Evolucin de la poblacin del grupoIndice de crecimiento poblacional por lustroConsumo energtico per cpitaConsumo energtico total anualIDH -referencia 2000-Sectores en % del GIIA en el 2000Sectores en % del GIVA en el 2050
2050/20002050/20002050/200020000.924Industria190.75Industria2929
85.79%218.04%187.05%20050.932Transportes128.27Transportes19.519.5
20100.939Otros sectores157.86Otros sectores2424
El IDH se supone se comporta siguiendo el CEPC hasta alcanzar el mximo = 120150.947Usos no energticos11.18Usos no energticos1.71.7
20200.954Prdidas169.70Prdidas25.825.8
20250.962Total:657.77
20300.970
20350.977
20400.985
20450.992
20501
GIVA
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
Industria
Transportes
Otros sectores
Usos no energticos
Prdidas
Paso 1-sin
Paso 1 - Sntesis
Consumo energtico total por gruposConsumo energtico total por gruposConsumo energtico total por sectoresConsumo energtico per capita por gruposndice de desarrollo humano supuesto por gruposPoblacin por grupos
Caso 1 - ReferenciaRestoCaso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - ReferenciaCaso 1 - Referencia
Total anual por gruposConsumo energtico per cpita GJ/hab -referencia-GJ/habIDHMillones de habitantes
GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoConsumo totalGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVARestoGIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto
200012.0998.954.0541.89128.4739.0042.93367.3851.97419.3520001154.95344.9951.97200012.0998.954.0541.89128.4739.0042.9351.97SI90.8198.45105.98114.48122.91132.83142.82154.00165.19178.94193.101499.52200027.9329.5274.19162.43392.49167.64160.4644.9920000.5180.7120.7450.7930.9340.9210.924sn2000432.723352.4654.56257.90327.32232.64267.541154.956080.10
51.09427.5416.98170.86526.08160.67178.38240.781772.38200513.46114.824.4443.54134.5741.3446.2668.42ST73.7279.6985.6592.2598.75106.47114.12122.52130.94141.34152.201197.65200527.4432.2980.89174.07390.83175.76172.4353.4620050.520.720.750.810.940.930.93sn2005490.593555.5654.89250.13344.32235.19268.281279.81
200513.46114.824.4443.54134.5741.3446.26398.4368.42466.8520051279.813553.4668.42201014.79130.604.8645.14141.4843.2548.9887.09OS96.24104.85113.33123.03132.67144.03155.43168.37181.31197.15213.381629.80201026.9134.7887.95185.12391.54182.20183.1061.9320100.510.720.750.820.950.940.94sn2010549.533755.4655.26243.84361.34237.36267.511406.16
56.50490.8418.60177.36552.10169.17190.48311.021966.06201516.48148.975.4147.34148.3145.2752.02105.84UNE9.5610.5111.4412.5213.5914.8616.1417.6219.1020.9222.77169.03201526.3938.0196.15199.92393.47189.58196.7468.0120150.510.720.760.830.950.940.95sn2015624.543919.2356.27236.79376.93238.80264.411556.19
201014.79130.604.8645.14141.4843.2548.98429.1087.09516.1920101406.1661.9387.09202018.19167.505.9749.49154.6547.2955.11124.38P97.04104.92112.69121.52130.27140.54150.85162.39173.93187.98202.471584.60202026.1441.03106.78215.40393.96197.07211.1372.6920200.510.730.760.850.960.950.95sn2020695.884082.6955.91229.76392.54239.95261.021711.11
62.54559.1420.54184.96579.58177.03202.00385.862171.65202520.08189.876.5251.89162.4049.8258.15139.18202525.7044.80117.53233.03397.16206.78226.7774.8520250.510.730.770.860.970.960.96sn2025781.294238.5455.48222.68408.90240.95256.431859.34
201516.48148.975.4147.34148.3145.2752.02463.80105.84569.6420151556.19268.01105.84203021.97212.317.0854.29169.1652.3862.18152.25Total anual:367.38398.43429.10463.80498.19538.73579.37624.90670.47726.33783.92203025.4648.33126.11251.81397.76216.47246.8975.7320300.510.730.770.880.970.970.97sn2030863.014393.0556.14215.60425.28241.96251.852010.47
69.34632.9422.76193.66605.91185.11214.26460.442384.42203524.14239.507.6457.19175.0355.1666.24171.82Total:6080.60203525.5352.81134.53274.24398.74227.46268.9778.9420350.510.740.780.890.980.980.98sn2035945.614534.9256.79208.54438.96242.51246.272176.56
202018.19167.505.9749.49154.6547.2955.11498.19124.38622.5720201711.11472.69124.38204026.31266.538.1960.09181.0957.9570.31190.90totales de referencia slo consideran 11 aos, no 50204025.5957.44143.09298.22400.07238.41292.1180.2620400.500.740.780.900.990.980.98sn20401028.124640.3557.24201.49452.65243.05240.702378.39
76.54714.7424.98202.76634.09194.22226.52527.122600.97204528.81300.958.7462.99188.6360.9275.29213.33%204525.9263.66151.37324.77403.65251.24320.2382.1420450.500.750.790.920.990.990.99sn20451111.574727.6157.74193.95467.31242.48235.112597.09
202520.08189.876.5251.89162.4049.8258.15538.73139.18677.9120251859.33974.85139.18205031.34335.269.3065.89197.9463.8980.30235.58SI1499.5224.66%205026.5269.65159.71353.45410.69264.08349.8883.2520500.500.750.790.931.001.001.00sn20501181.554813.3358.23186.42481.98241.93229.512829.81205010022.76millones de habitantes
84.10804.3627.20212.36663.12204.40240.66582.862819.06ST1197.6519.70%
203021.97212.317.0854.29169.1652.3862.18579.37152.25731.6220302010.47275.73152.25Totales227.662205.2672.20579.741781.73556.25657.771540.76OS1629.8026.80%
92.22903.6229.44222.96688.38215.07256.84648.143056.67Total:7621.36con restoUNE169.032.78%
203524.14239.507.6457.19175.0355.1666.24624.90171.82796.7220352176.55978.94171.826080.60sin restoP1584.6026.06%
100.901012.0631.66234.56712.24226.21273.10725.443316.17totales de referencia slo consideran 11 aos, no 50
204026.31266.538.1960.09181.0957.9570.31670.47190.90861.3720402378.38780.26190.90Total:6080.60
110.241134.9633.86246.16739.44237.73291.20808.463602.05
204528.81300.958.7462.99188.6360.9275.29726.33213.33939.6620452597.09282.14213.33
120.301272.4236.08257.76773.14249.62311.18897.823918.32
205031.34335.269.3065.89197.9463.8980.30783.92235.581019.5020502829.81183.25235.58
Totales1051.4310157.88334.292683.148255.812575.483042.397128.6935229.11
Total:35229.11
% de P total2.98%28.83%0.95%7.62%23.43%7.31%8.64%20.24%100.00%
% de P 20002.88%23.60%0.97%9.99%30.64%9.30%10.24%12.39%100.00%
% de P 20503.07%32.88%0.91%6.46%19.42%6.27%7.88%23.11%100.00%
GIGIIBGIIIBGIVBGIIAGIIIAGIVAResto
Paso 2-reservas
Paso 2
Caso 1 - Referencia
Reservas Energticas Mundiales
2000
Energticos Naturales
La energa solar4000al ao
La energa elica15al ao4063total al ao
La energa hidrulica45al ao
La energa geotrmica3al ao
El trabajo animalX4108con biomasa, sin hidrulica
Combustibles
Hidrgenoreferido a los HC
Carbn140000reservas ltimas recuperables
Petrleo y sus derivados11600reservas ltimas recuperables
Gas Natural4550reservas ltimas recuperables
Biomasa tradicional80al ao
Biomasa moderna10al ao90total al ao
Energticos nucleares
Uranio1700reservas conocidas - 3.7 Mton
Total:362350
Paso 2-cesta
Paso 2
Cesta energtica por grupo
Caso 1 - Referencia
Porcentajes establecidos
2000 - %2050 - %
GrupoPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtrasGrupoPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras
I33.551204.545I33.551204.545
IIB41.2713.7220.440.6716.97IIB41.2713.7220.440.6716.97
IIIB253752.90.130IIIB253752.90.130
IVB31.525.15304.717.65IVB31.525.15304.717.65
IIA38.228.0619.55.32.756.19IIA38.228.0619.55.32.756.19
IIIA41.514.118173.55.9IIIA41.514.118173.55.9
IVA48.415.222.49.41.82.8IVA48.415.222.49.41.82.8
Valores dependientes
GIPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras
200033.551204.545100
0
200533.551204.545100
0
201033.551204.545100
0
201533.551204.545100
0
202033.551204.545100
0
202533.551204.545100
0
203033.551204.545100
0
203533.551204.545100
0
204033.551204.545100
0
204533.551204.545100
0
205033.551204.545100
GIIBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras
200041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
200541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
201041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
201541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
202041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
202541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
203041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
203541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
204041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
204541.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
0
205041.2713.7220.440.6716.97100
GIIIBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras
2000253752.90.130100
0
2005253752.90.130100
0
2010253752.90.130100
0
2015253752.90.130100
0
2020253752.90.130100
0
2025253752.90.130100
0
2030253752.90.130100
0
2035253752.90.130100
0
2040253752.90.130100
0
2045253752.90.130100
0
2050253752.90.130100
GIVBPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras
200031.525.15304.717.65100
0
200531.525.15304.717.65100
0
201031.525.15304.717.65100
0
201531.525.15304.717.65100
0
202031.525.15304.717.65100
0
202531.525.15304.717.65100
0
203031.525.15304.717.65100
0
203531.525.15304.717.65100
0
204031.525.15304.717.65100
0
204531.525.15304.717.65100
0
205031.525.15304.717.65100
GIIAPetrleo y derivadosCarbnGas NaturalNuclearHidroelctircaOtras
200038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100
0
200538.228.0619.55.32.756.19100
0
201038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100
0
201538.228.0619.55.32.756.19100
0
202038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100
0
202538.228.0619.55.32.756.19100
0
203038.228.0619.55.32.756.19100