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ARMANDO SÁNCHEZ VARGAS
Métodos econométricos
aplicados a cambio climático
TALLER CLIMA RED
PINCC-UNAM
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OBJECTIVES 1. Propose a methodology to determine
the d ifferenGated impacts of EXTREME EVENTS on socioeconomic variables at the jurisdicGonal level (i.e. poverty)
2. Build an appropriate adaptaGon public policy based on our empirical results
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BACKGROUND
WHY IS IT NEEDED?
1. C l imate impac t s and soc i a l vulnerability are spaGally differenGated
2. There are very few micro-‐ level studies 3. inputs to design differenGated public
policies
• ClimaGc Change has been linked with changing levels of temperature and rainfall.
• Such extreme events have given rise to several negaGve effects on the economic welfare of the inhabitants, (specially the poor ones)
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METHODOLOGY
HOW TO DEVELOP IT? 1. By Combining climaGc, spaGal and
household’s survey data (GeostaGscal Basic Areas and household´s surveys) 2. Use conterfactual staGsGcal methods to
es`mate the impacts and design an adaptaGon public policy
2. • Use the methodology as a tool to design differenGated public policy.
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THE METHODOLOGY IN PRACTICE (flowchart)
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1. SpaGally idenGfy counGes, households and climaGc staGons
2. EsGmate 15 extreme climate indicators based on 25 years of daily records from 61 staGons
3. Map zones facing extreme events and idenGfy the affected people spaGally
4. Construct comparable groups of affected and not affected people . (PSM)
5. Calculate the mean differences between socioeconomic indicators
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Clima&c Change Impact
Control Group Treatment Group
Counterfactual PSM
Econometric Impacts