O PROJETO PIRATAO PROJETO PIRATA & sua importância para a & sua importância para a
previsão climática regional.previsão climática regional.
Paulo NobrePaulo Nobre
CPTEC/INPECPTEC/INPEIIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003IIIX Reunião de Análise Climática do Nordeste/2003
Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003Recife, 4-5 de setembro de 2003Paulo NobrePaulo NobreCPTEC/INPECPTEC/INPE
X-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJX-ISABP Arraial do Cabo, RJ23 August 200423 August 2004
The PIRATA Rational
• To provide a better description of the two main modes of Tropical Atlantic SST variability, namely the:– Equatorial mode: [interannual]– Meridional mode: [decadal]
The PIRATA PROJECTThe PIRATA PROJECT
FranceFranceIRDIRD
BrazilBrazilINPE/DHNINPE/DHN
USAUSANOAANOAA
19951995
Fortaleza
19961996
Natal
1997
1st BuoyMoored
2001
MOU
2003
PIRATABRAZIL
2004
PPA
2005
SWESWE
THE PIRATA BACKBONE
PIRATA BRAZILPIRATA BRAZIL
CPTEC/INPE
Satellite & Coupled O-A Modeling
DHN/CHN
Marine Operations
IO/USP
Education andTraining
FUNCEME
Applications
Marine Operations
PIRATA SATELLITE DATA PIRATA SATELLITE DATA RELAYRELAY
PIRATA buoy data available on near-real time on the Internet:
12N 38W 0N 23W
AUG 23, 2004
TEMPERATURE SOLAR RADIATION
Solar Radiation Estimates
PIRATA 8N-38W
GO
ES
PIRATA 8N-38W
GO
ES
0.04 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution
Buoy Data Received at CPTEC from GTS within a 24h period.
PIRATA BACKBONE & SW EXTENSION
Background Map: Long term mean No. SST observations/month (COADS)
PIRATA ARRAY
PIRATA SWE
Objectives
• Improving knowledge of ocean-atmospheric interactions over the tropical South Atlantic toward generating skillful SST predictions– Modeling effort to improve coupled o-a
models and forecasting tools– Enhancing oceanographic and meteorological
observational infrastructure over the tropical South Atlantic
Mechanisms to be studied
• SITCZ-Cold Tong Complex (Grodsky and Carton, 2002)
• Western Atlantic Warm Pool (Huang and Carton, 1995)
• Eastern Nordeste seasonal rainfall predictability (Rao and Lima, 1993)
• SACZ-SST feedback processes (Chaves and Nobre, 2004; Barreiro and Chang, 2003)
An enhanced observational network over the SW Atlantic:
Benefits
• Both satellite altimetry and tide gauges measurements along the coast and islands are necessary for an effective monitoring of mean sea level.
• T-S vertical profiles are needed to estimate the amount of heat stored on the upper ocean.
Density Anomaly Advection by the South Equatorial Current
SITCZ(Grodsky and Carton, 2002)
SACZSACZ & SSTA : & SSTA : ObservationsObservations17-25 NOVEMBER 199917-25 NOVEMBER 1999
Nobre et al. (2002)
Source regions of Subtropical-Tropical Cell waters
From: Hazeleger et al. (2003)
Anomaly Correlation:
NordesteDry Spells Duration &
SST
Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 200426 March 2004
CPTEC’s Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite
CPTEC’s Ocean-Atmosphere coupled model suite
Forced Spin upForced Spin up
AGCM
OGCM
SST
TauHeat
IC
Coupled ForecastCoupled Forecast
AtmosFCST
daily/hourly
SFCfluxes
SST
OGCM
AGCM
daily
Coupled GCM for Weather Prediction: The Catarina Phenomenon
Will extreme events become more frequent in a warmer
climate?
Ventos & Correntes PIRATA
Equatorial Undercurrent Simulation at CPTEC
PERSISTENCE MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL
Repelli and Nobre (2004)
SIMOC MAM SSTA FORECAST SKILL
Repelli and Nobre (2004)
SIMOC SSTA FORECAST SKILLN
orth
Atla
ntic
Sou
th A
tlant
ic
NOVEMBER DECEMBER
Repelli and Nobre (2004)
Nobre et al. (2002)
Chaves (2003)
WARM-COLD SST OGCM EXPERIMENTS
CPTEC’s Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere model suite