Download - Roberto Luis Troster
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21 de outubro de 2010
• PIB
• População
• Juros
• Câmbio
• Perspectivas
![Page 3: Roberto Luis Troster](https://reader037.vdocuments.pub/reader037/viewer/2022102815/5585a099d8b42a711a8b4637/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Mundo
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-15
-10
-5
-
5
10
15
4.2
7.0
PIB Comércio
3Fonte: IMF
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Antes/depois 2004-7 2011-5
Brasil Alemanha Japão Inglaterra EUA -
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 4.7
1.9 2.3
2.6 2.9
4.1
1.7 1.8
2.7 2.4
2004-2007 2011-2005
4Fonte: FMI
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Antes/depois 2004-7 2011-5
Brasil Rússia Índia China0
2
4
6
8
10
12
4.73
7.32
9.07
11.28
4.10 4.31
8.07
9.64
2004-2007 2011-2005
5Fonte: FMI
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Antes/depois 2004-7 2011-5
Brasil Argentina Chile Colômbia México0123456789
10
4.7
8.8
5.2 6.2
3.9 4.1
3.0
4.6 4.8 4.6
2004-2007 2011-2005
6Fonte: FMI
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Velocidade de vôo - 2015
Brasil
Argen
tina
Chile
China
Aleman
haÍn
dia
Japã
o
Méx
ico
Rússia EUA
Mun
do -
2
4
6
8
10
4.1 3.0
4.5
9.5
1.2
8.1
1.7
4.0 5.0
2.4
4.6
7Fonte: IMF
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Brasil 2010 - 2020
• Cenário externo
• Energia-alimentos
• Copa Olimpíada
• Investment grade
8
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9
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10
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Produção de soja
11Fonte: Abag - Conab
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
15,395
68,708
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Soja kg/ha: 1990-2009
12Fonte: ABAG e Conab
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1,580
2,941
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13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
13
28
9
23
5
Fonte: World Economic Forum
Competitividade mundial +
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14
Spread crédito
Custo da regulação
Qualidade estradas
Contratos trabalho
Proc. inic. empresa
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
128 132
106118
126
Fonte: World Economic Forum
Competitividade mundial -
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NFE, TC e ID
15Fonte: Banco Central
dez-
08
fev-
09
abr-0
9
jun-0
9
ago-
09
out-0
9
dez-
09
fev-
10
abr-1
0
jun-1
0-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2.24
1.37
0.88
TC IDE NFE
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FBKF e poupança
16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Diferença FBKF Poupança
Fonte: IBGE
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Dívida pública
17Fonte: BC
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 8
18
28
38
48
58
68
78
46.8 45.0 42.138.0
43.8
67.464.2 61.1 61.8
68.5
20.6 19.2 19.0
23.8 24.7
Líquida Bruta Diferença
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Crédito
18
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Custo de abrir empresa
Brasil China0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
11.6%
14.3%
6.9%
4.9%
2004 2010
19Fonte: World Bank
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Dias para abrir empresa
Brasil China0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 152
46
120
37
2004 2010
20Fonte: World Bank
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Continuidade
21
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PIB Brasil 1990 - 2020
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
IBGE FMI Focus
22Fonte: IBGE, FMI e Focus
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21 de outubro de 2010
• População
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Índice de Gini
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.57
0.58
0.59
0.60
0.610.600000000000001
0.59
0.58
0.57 0.57
0.56 0.56
0.55
24Fonte: IBGE
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Distribuição de rendimentos
Até 1 sm >1 sn até 2 sm
>2 sn até 5 sm
>5 sn até 10 sm
Mais de 10 sm
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40 34.9
32.7
22.2
6.7 3.4
32.8 34.9
23.1
6.1 3.2
2005 2006 2007 2008
25Fonte: IBGE
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Demografia 2000 - 2020
26
08
1624324048566472
80 +
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
2020
08
1624324048566472
80 +
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0%
2000
Fonte: IBGE
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Pirâmide 2010 - 2020
0-19 20-64 65 +0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
34.6%
58.7%
6.7%
27.0%
63.0%
9.9%
2010 2020
27Fonte: IBGE
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• Juros
21 de outubro de 2010
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Tendência de juros LP
• Queda
• Canais
• Estabilidade
• Credibilidade
• Abertura
• Convergência
29
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Juros pré – 1 ano
30Fonte: BMF
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
15.9 17.8
16.4
12.4 12.1 12.2 10.5 11.2
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Juros pré – 5 anos
31Fonte: BMF
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20 17.6
16.7 14.9
12.4 13.0 12.6 12.8 11.7
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Juros real pré – 1 ano
32Fonte: BMF
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10.0
12.1 11.8
8.4 7.8
7.1 6.0 6.3
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Juros real pré – 5 anos
33Fonte: BMF
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 12.9 12.1
10.8
8.1 8.9
8.2 8.3 7.3
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Dívida pública pré % total
34Fonte: BMF
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12.5
20.1
27.9
36.1 37.3
32.2 33.7 34.1
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Crédito recursos livres / PIB
35Fonte: BMF
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
14.7 15.6 18.7
20.6
24.1
29.0 30.4 30.3
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Juros 3 meses
36Fonte: The Economist
EUA
Japã
o
China
Ingla
terra
Aleman
haItá
lia
Brasil
Chile
Méx
ico
Colôm
bia
Venez
uela
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0.2 0.2
2.6 0.8 0.9 0.9
10.7
2.9 4.5
3.5
14.8
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Juros pré
37Fonte: BMF
1 ano 2 anos 3 anos 4 anos 5 anos 10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6
10.8
11.0
11.2
11.4
11.6
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21 de outubro de 2010
• Câmbio
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Câmbio nominal:1995-2020
39Fonte: Banco Central e RLT
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.97
3.53
1.81
2.50
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IPCA 1995 - 2020
40Fonte: Banco Central e RLT
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
-
5
10
15
20
25
5.6 3.5
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Câmbio real:1995-2020
41Fonte: Banco Central e RLT
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.97
2.15
0.71 0.65
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Aumento do IOF 18.10.2010
42
• Alíquota de 4% para 6%
• IOF margem 0,38% para 6,00%
• Diagnóstico errado
• Efeitos colaterais
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44
21 de outubro de 2010
• Perspectivas
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Perspectivas 2020
45
• Cenário positivo
• Riscos pontuais
• Sustentabilidade
• Adaptabilidade
• Fazer acontecer
![Page 46: Roberto Luis Troster](https://reader037.vdocuments.pub/reader037/viewer/2022102815/5585a099d8b42a711a8b4637/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Riscos
• Externos
• Condução
• Sustentabilidade
• Adaptação
• Visão
46
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21 de outubro de 2020
• PIB – 4,0%
• População – 208 mm
• Juros – 7,5%
• Câmbio – R$ 2,50
• Bolsa - nervosa