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Robots Learning Like Babies
Andrea Censi
Laboratory for Information and Decision SystemsMassachusetts Institute of Technology
http://censi.mit.edu - [email protected]
時代基⾦金會暨⿇麻省理⼯工學院MIT全球產研計劃台灣年會 2015 MIT ILP-EPOCH TAIWAN SYMPOSIUM
Taipei, July 28, 2015Meet the Future of Robotics and Machine
Learning in Innovation Economy
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Outline
1. What is learning?
2. What is the value proposition for robotics?
3. What are the challenges in designing learning systems?
2
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What is learning?
‣ It’s about using data- …to make predictions- …to make decisions
3
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Examples of learning
4
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Examples of learning
‣ Netflix
5
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Examples of learning
‣ Netflix
5
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Examples of learning
‣ Netflix
5
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Examples of learning
‣ Netflix
5
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Examples of learning
‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch.
6
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Examples of learning
‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch.
6
‣ Example of a “recommender” system- other classical example: shopping suggestions
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Examples of learning
‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch.
6
‣ Example of a “recommender” system- other classical example: shopping suggestions
‣ Netflix Challenge (2007-9): $1M for help in making the learning algorithm better.
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algorithminput output
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learning algorithm
dataa decision rule
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learning algorithm
data
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learning algorithm
dataJohn, “Godfather”,
Jane, “Godfather”,
Jane, “Terminator”,
...
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learning algorithm
dataJohn, “Godfather”,
Jane, “Godfather”,
Jane, “Terminator”,
...
you
rating?
a movie
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10
learning algorithm
data
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10
learning algorithm
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.30
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.010.30
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.010.30 0.50
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.250.010.30 0.50
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.250.250.010.30 0.50
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.250.250.010.30 0.50
parameters (high dimensional)
data
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.250.250.010.30 0.50
parameters (high dimensional)
data best* decision rule
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.250.250.010.30 0.50
parameters (high dimensional)
data
* in the family considered
best* decision rule
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10
learning algorithm
candidates decision rules
error on test data 0.10 0.15 0.250.250.010.30 0.50
parameters (high dimensional)
data
* on the data available* in the family considered
best* decision rule
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Examples of learning
12
‣ Nest Learning Thermostat
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Examples of learning
‣ Nest Learning Thermostat - acquired by Google ($2B)- see also: Ecobee in the Apple ecosystem
13
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Examples of learning
‣ Nest Learning Thermostat - acquired by Google ($2B)- see also: Ecobee in the Apple ecosystem
13
~ NT 300
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Examples of learning
‣ Nest Learning Thermostat - acquired by Google ($2B)- see also: Ecobee in the Apple ecosystem
13
+ learning =
~ NT 300
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Examples of learning
‣ Nest Learning Thermostat - acquired by Google ($2B)- see also: Ecobee in the Apple ecosystem
13
+ learning =
~ NT 300 NT 8000
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14
March 2015 in Boston
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14
March 2015 in Boston
Boston, March 2015
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14
March 2015 in Boston
Boston, March 2015
“snow”fun only on the first day
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March 2015 in Boston
Boston, March 2015
“snow”fun only on the first day
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learning algorithm
data
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17
learning algorithm
datasensor data time series
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17
learning algorithm
data
“I’m cold”, “I’m hot”sensor data time series
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17
learning algorithm
data
turn on/off
temperature date
“I’m cold”, “I’m hot”sensor data time series
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18
learning algorithm
data
a control policy
turn on/off
temperature date
“I’m cold”, “I’m hot”sensor data time series
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18
learning algorithm
data
a control policy
turn on/off
temperature change
a model of the system
turn on/off
temperature date
“I’m cold”, “I’m hot”sensor data time series
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18
learning algorithm
data
a control policy
date
desired temperature
a model of the task
turn on/off
temperature change
a model of the system
turn on/off
temperature date
“I’m cold”, “I’m hot”sensor data time series
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19
![Page 59: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
‣ What is a robot?
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‣ What is a robot?- has sensors
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‣ What is a robot?- has sensors- has actuators
19
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‣ What is a robot?- has sensors- has actuators- interacts with the physical world
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‣ What is a robot?- has sensors- has actuators- interacts with the physical world
‣ QUIZ: Which one is the robot?
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‣ What is a robot?- has sensors- has actuators- interacts with the physical world
A
‣ QUIZ: Which one is the robot?
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20
‣ What is a robot?- has sensors- has actuators- interacts with the physical world
A B
‣ QUIZ: Which one is the robot?
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20
‣ What is a robot?- has sensors- has actuators- interacts with the physical world
A B C
‣ QUIZ: Which one is the robot?
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20
‣ What is a robot?- has sensors- has actuators- interacts with the physical world
A B C
‣ QUIZ: Which one is the robot?
D
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20
‣ What is a robot?- has sensors- has actuators- interacts with the physical world
A B C E
‣ QUIZ: Which one is the robot?
D
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learning algorithm
data
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21
learning algorithm
datasensorimotor experience
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21
learning algorithm
data
task examples (given by user )
sensorimotor experience
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21
learning algorithm
data
a control policy
command
observations desired state
task examples (given by user )
sensorimotor experience
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21
learning algorithm
data
commands
change in state
a model of the system
a control policy
command
observations desired state
task examples (given by user )
sensorimotor experience
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21
learning algorithm
data
observations
desired state
a model of the task
commands
change in state
a model of the system
a control policy
command
observations desired state
task examples (given by user )
sensorimotor experience
![Page 75: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Examples of learning
‣ Kiva Systems (now AmazonRobotics)
22
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Examples of learning
‣ Kiva Systems (now AmazonRobotics)
22
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Examples of learning
‣ Kiva Systems (now AmazonRobotics)
22
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Examples of learning
‣ Kiva Systems (now AmazonRobotics) - Learning allows high performance
with very cheap components
23
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Examples of learning
‣ Kiva Systems (now AmazonRobotics) - Learning allows high performance
with very cheap components
23
learning algorithm
data
![Page 80: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Examples of learning
‣ Kiva Systems (now AmazonRobotics) - Learning allows high performance
with very cheap components
23
recorded commands
recorded observationslearning
algorithm
data
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Examples of learning
‣ Kiva Systems (now AmazonRobotics) - Learning allows high performance
with very cheap components
23
recorded commands
recorded observationslearning
algorithm
datacommands
change in state
a model of the system
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Examples of learning
‣ Kiva Systems (now AmazonRobotics) - Learning allows high performance
with very cheap components
24
recorded commands
recorded observationslearning
algorithm
data
a model of the system
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‣ Learning makes systems more robust.
25
interferencesabotage faults / wear
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‣ Learning makes systems more robust.
25
interferencesabotage faults / wear
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Examples of learning
‣ Dyson 360eye- learns a 3D map of your house
26
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Examples of learning
‣ Dyson 360eye- learns a 3D map of your house
26
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Examples of learning
‣ “Learning by demonstration”
27
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Examples of learning
‣ “Learning by demonstration”
27
[Muelling, Peters]
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Examples of learning
‣ “Learning by demonstration”
27
[Muelling, Peters]
learning algorithm
data
![Page 90: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
Examples of learning
‣ “Learning by demonstration”
27
[Muelling, Peters]
user demonstrations
robot’s own experience
learning algorithm
data
![Page 91: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
Examples of learning
‣ “Learning by demonstration”
27
[Muelling, Peters]
user demonstrations
robot’s own experience
learning algorithm
data
control policy
commands
current state
![Page 92: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
Learning
‣ It’s about using data- …to make predictions- …to make decisions
28
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Learning
‣ It’s about using data- …to make predictions- …to make decisions
28
‣ Value proposition for robotics:- add value: more complex functionality- reduce design cost- reduce building cost- reduce operating cost
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Learning
‣ It’s about using data- …to make predictions- …to make decisions
28
‣ Value proposition for robotics:- add value: more complex functionality- reduce design cost- reduce building cost- reduce operating cost
but…
![Page 95: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
Downsides of Learning
‣ Adaptivity comes at a (computational) cost.
29
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30
Downsides of Learning
‣ Adaptivity comes at a (computational) cost.
![Page 97: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
30
more adaptive less adaptive
Downsides of Learning
‣ Adaptivity comes at a (computational) cost.
![Page 98: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
30
more adaptive less adaptive
Downsides of Learning
‣ Adaptivity comes at a (computational) cost.
Human
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30
more adaptive less adaptive
Downsides of Learning
‣ Adaptivity comes at a (computational) cost.
Fruit flyHuman
![Page 100: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
30
Dyson 360eye
more adaptive less adaptive
Downsides of Learning
‣ Adaptivity comes at a (computational) cost.
Fruit flyHuman
![Page 101: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
30
Dyson 360eye
more adaptive less adaptive
Downsides of Learning
‣ Adaptivity comes at a (computational) cost.
Fruit flyHuman iRobot’s Roomba
![Page 102: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
Downsides of Learning
‣ It might be harder to understand your design.
31
![Page 103: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
Downsides of Learning
‣ It might be harder to understand your design.
31
‣ Just like “genetic algorithms”…
![Page 104: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
Downsides of Learning
‣ It might be harder to understand your design.
31
2006 NASA ST5 spacecraft antenna.
‣ Just like “genetic algorithms”…
![Page 105: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
Downsides of Learning
‣ It might be harder to understand your design.
32
![Page 106: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
Downsides of Learning
‣ It might be harder to understand your design.
32
![Page 107: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
33
Downsides of Learning
(image, label)(image, label)(image, label)(image, label)(image, “gorilla”)(image, label)
learning algorithm
data
‣ It might be harder to understand your design.
![Page 108: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
33
Downsides of Learning
(image, label)(image, label)(image, label)(image, label)(image, “gorilla”)(image, label)
learning algorithm
data
‣ It might be harder to understand your design.
image of person
“gorilla”
![Page 109: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
33
Downsides of Learning
(image, label)(image, label)(image, label)(image, label)(image, “gorilla”)(image, label)
learning algorithm
data
‣ It might be harder to understand your design.
image of person
“gorilla”
evidence: + eyes + hair - clothes
![Page 110: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
Downsides of Learning
‣ Machine learning systems are hard to maintain.
34
![Page 111: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
Downsides of Learning
‣ Machine learning systems are hard to maintain.
34
![Page 112: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
Learning
‣ It’s about using data- …to make predictions- …to make decisions
35
‣ Value proposition for robotics- add value: more complex functionality- reduce design cost- reduce building cost- reduce operating cost
![Page 113: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
Learning
‣ It’s about using data- …to make predictions- …to make decisions
35
‣ Value proposition for robotics- add value: more complex functionality- reduce design cost- reduce building cost- reduce operating cost
‣ But:- systems need more computational resources- systems are hard to trust- systems are less maintainable
![Page 114: Robots Learning Like Babies - Andrea Censi · ‣ Netflix suggests you a good movie to watch. 6 ‣ Example of a “recommender” system-other classical example: shopping suggestions](https://reader033.vdocuments.pub/reader033/viewer/2022042910/5f410aa8af9f126fc54f260c/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
Learning
‣ It’s about using data- …to make predictions- …to make decisions
35
‣ Value proposition for robotics- add value: more complex functionality- reduce design cost- reduce building cost- reduce operating cost
‣ But:- systems need more computational resources- systems are hard to trust- systems are less maintainable
‣ Learn about learning: “The Master Algorithm” by Domingos (Sep’15)