Download - SSA6 Søndeledfjord, Norway
…for sustainable growth in the North
SSA6 Søndeledfjord, Norway
Erlend Moksness, Jakob Gjøsæter, Esben Moland Olsen and Jon Helge VølstadInstitute of Marine Research, Norway
Eirik MikkelsenNORUT (Northern Research Institute), Tromsø, Norway
Håkan T. SandersenBodø University College
Istanbul, 5 February 2010
Final simulation and interactive demonstration
…for sustainable growth in the North
SSA6 Søndeledfjord, Norway
…for sustainable growth in the North
SSA 7.6 Søndeledfjorden
…for sustainable growth in the North
SSA6 Søndeled fjord-system. Southeast Norway
Norway
…for sustainable growth in the North
Policy issue
• Policy issue developed together with municipal authorities
+ +
Maximise local economic benefits from tourism
Minimise impacts on local coastal cod stock
Minimise conflicts with local users
Economics component
Ecology component
Social component
…for sustainable growth in the North
Fjord system elements
• Coastal cod stock – Focus, and indicator for
ecosystem
• Seals, commorants• Recreational fisheries• Commercial cod and prawn
fishery• Eel fishery, with bycatch of cod
• Tourism: – Building and maintenance of
cabins.
– Construction of marinas and sandy beaches
– Other tourist services
– Fishing by tourists
• Shell-fish aquaculture
…for sustainable growth in the North
Modelling objective
• Useful tool for policy-makers and regulators– connections between factors / trade-offs between objectives.– i.e. qualitatively more than quantitatively output– Demonstrated model for municipal authorities; interested
• Regulatory options for municipality– Land regulations: Construction of cabins, marinas and beaches– Marine wildlife regulations (seal and comorant)– Fishing regulations (commercial, tourists, recreational)– Tourist service provisions (accomodation for fishing tourists)– Rear cod juveniles for release, to enhance local cod stock– Aquaculture regulation
…for sustainable growth in the North
Factors affecting cod stock
Tourism and recreation
COD-STOCK
Recreational fishing
Marinas and beaches
2nd homes
Tourist fishing
Commercial fishing
Habitat 0-1 yr
Seal and comorant
Cod rearing
Cannibalism
R
R
R
R
Recruitment
…for sustainable growth in the North
Local economic benefits from tourism
No. of tourist-days
Tourism expenditure
Expenditure/day
Factors
2nd homes
Local economic benefits
Building
Maintenance LEB = Expenditure x Local share x Multiplier
Tourist Categories:• Hotel-tourists• 2nd home owners• Fishing tourists• 2nd home renters• Camping-tourists
…for sustainable growth in the North
Factors affecting number of tourist-days for tourist categories
No. of tourist-days
No of tourist-days
Conflict level (SC)
Accomodation capacity
Fishing tourist accomodation
Landscape/environment quality (EC)
Coastal cod stock state (EC)
Regulations on tourist fishing
GDP-growth rate
SC=Social component EC=Ecological component
…for sustainable growth in the North
Guest days Risør
Guest dayst Risør. Source Statistics Norway
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
2005 2006 2007
Guest days
Foreigners
Norw egians
Guest days Risør. Source Statistics Norway
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
2005 2006 2007
Hotell
Camping/cabins
…for sustainable growth in the North
Tourist days and expenditures • Figures used by us:
• Original expenditure data: Source Statistics Norway/TØI
…for sustainable growth in the North
Local economic benefits from expenditure
• Parameters for LEB (local economic benefits) from tourist expenditure in the different groups: i = (Local share) * (Multiplier)
(From Auno and Sørensen 2009)
Hotel
2nd Home owners
Fishing tourists
2nd home renters
Camping tourists
…for sustainable growth in the North
Other economic effects
• Commercial fishery affected by cod stock state– ”Static approach”– Changes in cod stock state (stock size) translates directly into
relativel lower/higher catches, revenues and LEB
• Potentially: cost of rearing cod juveniles
• Potentially: Aquaculture-production, and effects on wild fish
…for sustainable growth in the North
Factors affecting conflict levelTourist – local inhabitants
• (But… legitimacy… process... output… conflicts…)
Local economic benefits from tourism
No of tourist-daysConflict level
indicator =
No of tourist-days
Local economic benefits from tourism
”Low” conflict level
High
Med
ium
…for sustainable growth in the North
Policy issue & examples of links
Maximise local economic benefits from tourism
Minimise impacts on local coastal cod stock
Minimise conflicts with local users
2nd homes
Tourist days
Fishing pressure
…for sustainable growth in the North
Regulations / Governance
• Number of 2nd homes
• Habitat conservation (”MPA Habitat”)
• Cod fishing regulations (”MPA Cod”)
• Fishing tourist dedicated accomodation
• Number of – seals and comorants– Eel fishers
…for sustainable growth in the North
Base example
Commercial fishery LEB NOK
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
• Cod numbers by age-group
• Cod biomass
• Commercial fishery LEB
Cod SumBiomass kg
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Cod population history
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
0-group
1-group
2-group
3-group
4-group
5-group
6-group
7-group
8-group
9-group
10-group
…for sustainable growth in the North
Base example
• Tourist days
• LEB direct touristexpenditure
• Sum LEB
Tourist days
-
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Hotel
2nd home owners
Fishing tourists
2nd home renters
Camping
LEB from direct tourist expenditure, NOK
-
10 000 000
20 000 000
30 000 000
40 000 000
50 000 000
60 000 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Hotel
2nd HO
Fishing tourists
2nd HR
Camping
Sum Local Economic benefits NOK
-
50 000 000
100 000 000
150 000 000
200 000 000
250 000 000
300 000 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
…for sustainable growth in the North
Example 2
• No marinas/beaches• No nets or trawl-
fishing• More dedicated
fishing-touristaccomodation(80 *****)
• Leads to:– No commercial
fishing– More fishing
tourists
Cod SumBiomass kg
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Cod SumBiomass kg
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
…for sustainable growth in the North
Example 2
• Local economicbenefits bycategory
• Bottom diagram– No nets/trawl– No habitat
destruction– More dedicated
fishing touristaccomodation
Average LEB NOK
-
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
30 000 000
35 000 000
40 000 000
45 000 000
50 000 000
Hotel 2nd HO Fishing tourists 2nd HR Camping New 2nd homes Maintenance 2ndhomes
Commercial fishery
Average LEB
-
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
30 000 000
35 000 000
40 000 000
45 000 000
50 000 000
Hotel 2nd HO Fishing tourists 2nd HR Camping New 2nd homes Maintenance 2ndhomes
Commercial fishery
…for sustainable growth in the North
Challenges…
• Make and use model when data availability and quality is low!
• Estimate tourist-days from ”tourists-factors”– Lack of available data– Lack of relevant studies in literature– Calibrate model to produce ”reasonable” numbers for tourist-days
• Understand and model in a good manner– conflict potential– Landscape quality
• Get data, and better data– Tourist fishers’ catches (IMR)– Expenditure and LEB from tourists fishers (NORUT)– LEB from tourism (SSB)
…for sustainable growth in the North
Way forward…?
• Run scenarios for municipality• Demonstrate/discuss with stakeholders• Involve high-schools in project
– Demonstration made– Educational use of model– Field data collections and questionnaires for data and model improvements?
• Commercial fishery– Better model for estimating changes in economic benefits due to changes in cod
stock?– Include profit maximisation by fishers?
• Include ?– Cod rearing – Aquaculture– Employment-effects of tourism
• Search for funding to use Spicosa-framework/methodology in new projects, elaborate and refine
…for sustainable growth in the North
Thank you
…for sustainable growth in the North
Tourist-day numbers and expenditures
• Tourist day numbers this year = Initial level + Effect of factors changed from initial level x Effect of economic development (GDP-growth)
• Daily expenditures from national survey, + adjustments
• Local economic benefits from I/O-database and own estimates
0i i0 ij j j k k
j
T T b (A A ) 1 (b ln(A ) 1,3) /100
…for sustainable growth in the North
Tourist days and GDP-growth Norway
y = 3,6811Ln(x) - 1,305
R2 = 0,3503
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Growth GDP Norway
Gro
wth
sta
ys
No
rwa
y
…for sustainable growth in the North
…for sustainable growth in the North
Commercial fishery
• Assume linear (Schaefer) harvest function: h = q E X
• Assume constant fishing effort
• Fixed prices
• Stock changes -> direct changes in harvest, revenues, local economic benefits
…for sustainable growth in the North
Landscape quality index
• Subjective index
Or
• A calculated index– No of 2nd homes– Boat-places in marinas, and area of constructed sandy beaches– Coastal cod stock state– Number of seals and birds (comorants)– Number/area of aquaculture plants
…for sustainable growth in the North
Factors for tourist days
• Tourist groups – Hotel-tourists– 2nd home owners– Fishing tourists– 2nd home renters– Camping-tourists
• Factors affecting number of tourist-days– Total number of tourist-days– Boat facilities in town centre – Level of conflict between tourists and locals– Standard on tourist-related services– Accomodation capacity 2nd homes for rent– Accomodation capacity dedicated for fishing
tourists – Accomodation capacity Hotel– Accomodation capacity Camping– Landscape and environmental quality index– Regulation on construction of 2nd homes– Regulation on construction of boat marinas– Regulation on construction of sandy beaches– State of coastal cod stock– Regulations on tourist fishing– Marketing expenditure tourism– GDP growth in Norway same year
…for sustainable growth in the North
Tourist factors
…for sustainable growth in the North
Tourist-day numbers and expenditures
• Tourist day numbers this year= Initial level+ effect of change in ”factors” from their initial level + effect of economic development (GDP-growth)
• Daily expenditures from national survey + modifications
• Local economic benefits from literature, I/O-database and own estimates
…for sustainable growth in the North
Available data, approach..?
• Tourist numbers – history in Risør/Sørlandet?– Countings from tourist information?– Other data
• How to build scenarios?– Based on policy instruments– Based on primary outcomes of policies
• Thank you
…for sustainable growth in the North
…for sustainable growth in the North
…for sustainable growth in the North
Shell-farming in Søndeledfjord