Download - The Battle for Tikrit Enters Its Final Hour
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The Battle for Tikrit Enters its Final HourAnalysis MARCH25,2015|18:43GMT Print TextSize
Summary
Editor'sNote:ThefollowingreportconsolidatessomeofStratfor'smostrecentanalysesontheTikritoffensive,updatedinreversechronologicalorder.Foranoverviewoftheoffensiveitself,readourfoundationalanalysisthebattleforTikritrevealsdeepertruths.
SmokebillowsoverTikritastheoffensivetoretakethecityfromIslamicStatefightersentersitsfinalstages,March30.(AHMADALRUBAYE/AFP/GettyImages)
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battletikritentersitsfinalhour 2/13
Analysis
March 26 - March 31
AlthoughaMarch31announcementbyIraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadithatTikritisrecapturedmayprovepremature,itappearsthattheoperationisinitsfinalstagesandthatBaghdadhasenoughcombatpowertocompletethepainstakingclearanceofIslamicStatefightersfromthecity.
DespitesomesuccessoflimitedbombingmissionsagainstfixedIslamicStatepositionscarriedoutbyU.S.aircraftoverTikrit,WesterninvolvementprovedunpopularwithShiitemilitiascontributingtotheoffensive.FollowingtheannouncementofWashington'sparticipationattheinvitationoftheIraqigovernment,anumberofShiitemilitiasincludingtheHezbollahBrigadessaidtheyweresuspendingoperations.DespiteindignationfromtheShiitemilitiacamp,theairsupportcameatacrucialtimeforthestalledoffensive.Cutoff,duginanddesperate,theremainingIslamicStatefightersinTikrithadsaturatedeveryapproachroutewithimprovisedexplosivedevicesandsniperfire.Hopingtoexactaseveretollontheattackingforces,Tikrit'slastdefenderssucceededinbluntingtheinitiallysuccessfulthrusttoclearthecityandsurroundingareas.
AswellaspinpointingtheremainingIslamicStatestrongpoints,theairstrikescoordinatedthroughtheJoint
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battletikritentersitsfinalhour 3/13
OperationCenterinBaghdademployedadvancedprecisionguidedmunitionstoreducetheriskofnoncombatantcasualties.Precisionlethalityisanimportantfactor,especiallyconsideringthatIslamicStatepositionsareinplacessuchasSaddamHussein'spalacecomplex,wellconstructedandeasilydefendable.AlAbadi'sMarch26visittoTikritmayhavebeenanattempttoencouragedespondentmilitiastocontinuetheirparticipation.OnMarch27aspokesmanforthePopularCrowdmilitiarepeatedthestatementthatthegroupisastateinstitutionand,assuch,subjecttotheorderofIraqi'sprimeminister.
Washington'sinvolvementinanattackintendedtobeledbyIraqisecurityforces(supportedbyIranianadvisorsandsecularmilitias)hasangeredsome,thinningtheranksofanalreadydepletedforce.Yet,theapparentlylimiteddurationoftheairstrikesofferstheShiitemilitiasawaybackin.AsofMarch30onlyonepieceofordnancehadbeendroppedfromaU.S.aircraft,leadingsomegroupstoconsiderrejoiningtheoffensive.Whilethecompleteclearanceofthecitymayyettakedays,itseemsasthoughvictoryisallbutassuredforBaghdadinitsendeavortofreeTikritfromtheIslamicState.
March 25
U.S.ledcoalitionaircrafthavecarriedoutoffensiveoperationsagainstIslamicStatepositionsincentralTikritundercoverofdarkness.AseniorU.S.officialsaidthattheIraqigovernmentinBaghdadhadspecificallyrequestedU.S.airpowertoreignitethestalledoffensivetouproottheremainingIslamicStatepositionsinTikrit.TheU.S.AirForcebegansurveillancemissionsoverTikritfromMarch20,buthadavoidedflyingcombatmissionsinlocationswhereIranianadvisersorShiitemilitiaswereoperating.Thisisnownolongerthecase.
ItislikelythatintelligencecollectedfromreconnaissanceflightsidentifiedknownIslamicStatepositionsinTikrit,whichU.S.ledcoalitionaircraftcanstrikewithprecision.U.S.forceswillhavelittlechoicebuttoincreasethelevelofcooperationwithIranianelementsinIraqastheyoperateincloserproximity.AlthoughtheinvolvementofthecoalitionwillinvigoratethestalledassaultonremainingIslamicStatestrongpoints,theUnitedStatescouldbecriticizedforprovidingperceiveddirectassistancetosectarianShiiteforcesontheground.
Althoughtheairstrikescouldbelimitedinscope,engaginghighvaluetargetsinthecity,theyarelikelytheopeningstagesofabroaderairoffensiveinsupportofthesecurityforcesamassedroundTikrit.AnydisagreementbetweenBaghdad'sandTehran'sforcesonthegroundoverwhetherdirectU.S.supportisrequiredcouldunderminethecohesionbetweenIraqisecurityforcesandIranianandShiiteelements.IfthecooperationbetweentheU.S.ledcoalition,BaghdadandTehranworks,however,itcouldbecomeaforcecompositionmodelforoperationsagainstIslamicStateforceselsewhereinIraqandSyria.
March 19-24
ProgressinthebattleforTikritremainsstagnantastheoperationentersitsfourthweek.IslamicStatesfightersareholedupinthecenterofthecity,resistingattemptstodisplacethem.TheIraqisecurityforcessupportedbyIranianadvisers,ShiitemilitiasandsomeSunnitribalfightershavesustainedsignificantcasualtiesduringattemptstopenetrateandcleartheIslamicStatepositions.Mostlyoralmostcompletelycutofffromtheirsupplylines,theIslamicStateelementsinTikritarerelyingonstockpiledammunitionandsupplies,andtheyhavesurroundedthemselvesbyaringofimprovisedexplosivedevices.
TheU.S.ledcoalition'saircampaigncontinuestoengageIslamicStatepositionsinIraq,butsofar,ithasavoidedareaswhereIranianadvisersorShiitemilitiasareoperating,namelySalahuddinandDiyalaprovinces.ThisislargelybecauseofthepoliticaldynamicbetweenTehranandWashington.Anotherreason
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battletikritentersitsfinalhour 4/13
isthatIranissupportingIraqisecurityforcesinTikritwhiletheUnitedStateshasagreedtosupporttheoffensivetoretakeMosul,abiggerandmorecomplexoperation.However,recentreportingindicatesthatelementsoftheIraqiarmyaredissatisfiedwiththestalledoffensiveinTikritandfeelthatU.S.ledcloseairsupportwithprecisionguidedweaponsisthekeytouprootingtheremainingIslamicStatefightersinthecity'scenter.
ThecallforsuchamovewasstronglyopposedbyHadialAmeri,theheadoftheBadrOrganization,thesuccessortotheBadrBrigades.AlAmeriisveryclosetothecommanderoftheoverseasoperationsarmoftheIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorps,Maj.Gen.QassemSuleimani.Iran'sQudsforcehasbeenheavilyinvolvedinfightingagainsttheIslamicStateinIraq,andSuleimanihaspersonallyadoptedacoordinatingroleontheground.TehranhasbeenquietaboutthesuggestionofU.S.ledaircraftflyingmissionsintheTikritoperation.Likewise,itcommentedlittlewhentheU.S.AirForcesaidithasbeenconductingreconnaissanceflightsoverTikritsinceMarch21andissupplyingIraqisecurityforceswithintelligence.
ItremainstobeseenwhethertheIraqiarmywillofficiallyrequestcloseairsupportfromtheU.S.ledcoalition,andevenifitdoes,whetherWashingtonwillagreetoprovideit.IfcoalitionairstrikesdotargetTikrit,however,importantquestionsariseoverhowtheUnitedStatesandIransharethesamebattlespace.WeretheUnitedStatestobeginaircombatmissionsagainstIslamicStatepositionsinTikrit,itwouldhavetocoordinatecarefullywithIranatthemilitaryandpoliticallevels,andseriousdeconflictionwouldhavetotakeplaceontheground,especiallyiftheUnitedStatesdeployedairtrafficcontrolpersonnel.
FromtheIranianperspective,precisionbombingisnotnecessarilyabadthing,evenifitcomesfromatraditionaladversary.NotonlycouldadvancedairsupportpreventtheTikritoffensivefromstallingcompletely,apotentialsourceofembarrassmentforIran,itcouldalsospeedupthefallofcity.AnotherimportantfactoristhatbriningintheUnitedStatescouldhelpIrandeflectblameshouldmisguidedordnancefallonSunniorShiitepopulations.However,thepossibilityofciviliancasualtiesalonemaybeenoughtodeterthecoalition,whichisunwillingtorisknoncombatantdeaths.
March 17-18
IraqisecurityforcessurroundingTikritcontinuetoreceivereinforcementsaheadofthefinalphaseoftheoperationtoclearIslamicStatefightersfromtheheartofthecity.ThecalltobattlehasattractedfightersfrompopularvolunteergroupsincludingtheBadrOrganization,theLeagueoftheRighteous,thePeaceBrigadesandtheiraffiliates.SeniorIraqiarmysourcesarekeentoemphasizethatmanyofthemilitiashaveexperiencefightinginbuiltupareasandthattheTikritoperationasawholehasplayedouttoalargelypredeterminedtimeline.Infact,thesuccessofthesecurityforces,heavilysupportedbyIran,hassofarexceededexpectations.
However,themostdifficultphaseisyettocome.WhilecombatengineersendeavortocleartheapproachestoTikrit,removingimprovisedandconventionalexplosives,aconcertedbombingcampaignissofteningupIslamicStatepositionsindowntownTikrit.Acombinationoflightandheavyartillery,fixedwingaircraft,attackhelicoptersandartilleryrocketscontinuetopoundtargetsinsidethecity.
FollowinguponreportsthatIransentadvancedmissilesystemstoSalahuddinprovince,U.S.militaryadvisersexpressedconcernabouttheuseofIranianheavyweaponsinthefightagainsttheIslamicState,giventheirindiscriminatenatureandpotency.TheShiitemilitiasareincreasinglywellequippedwithweaponsandmaterielsuppliedbyTehran.AhmadalAsadi,aspokespersonforthePeople'sMobilizationForces,saidthatTehranhadsuppliedweaponsandammunition"withoutlimitorconditions."Previously,U.S.StateDepartmentspokeswomanJenPsakiwarnedthattheunselectiveuseofordnancecouldexacerbatesectariantensionson
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battletikritentersitsfinalhour 5/13
theground.
TheprospectofreprisalkillingsagainstIslamicStatesfightersandthosebelievedtohaveaidedthemisveryreal,exacerbatedbythediscoveryofatleastfourmassgraves,unearthedinthevicinityofAlbuAjeelvillage,eastofTikrit.TheremainsarethoughttobelongtoShiitefighters,fromnearbyContingencyOperatingBaseSpeicher,reportedlykilledintheIslamicStateassaultinJunethatforcedtheIraqiarmytowithdraw.Around1,700traineeswerebilletedinthecontingencyoperatingbasealsoknownasSpykerAirBaseatthetime.
AfurtherconcernfortheUnitedStatesandcoalitionforcesingeneraliswhathappenswhentheIslamicStatehasbeenoustedfromitsstrongholds.ThefirstandsecondGulfWarshighlightedtheproblemsthatcanariseinIraqwhenabreakdowninorderoccursinthewakeofintensefighting.WellarmedShiitemilitiasdirectlycontributetothefightagainstIslamicStateand,aswellasholdingagrudgeagainstanySunnistheysuspectofcollusion,willbewellplacedtoexploitanypowervacuumintheaftermathofmilitaryoperations.ThoughleafletsdroppedbyIraqihelicoptershavepromisedanysurrenderingfightersafairandunbiasedtrial,itremainstobeseenwhetherthatpromisewillbehonored.
The Coalition Focus on Stabilization
TheinauguralmeetingoftheCoalitionStabilizationWorkingGrouptookplaceinBerlinonMarch18.DrawingfromremarksmadeinBaghdadtwodaysearlier,aspeechbythespecialpresidentialenvoyfortheglobalcoalitiontocountertheIslamicState,JohnAllen,praisedthemembersofthecoalition,highlightingGermanyandtheUnitedArabEmiratesinparticular.Overthecourseoftheaddress,Allenemphasizednotonlythefiscalcostoftheendeavorbutalsotherequirementtosynchronizecivilianstabilizationeffortswiththemilitaryoperationsthatinevitablyprecedethem.
TheestablishmentofacoalitionsupportedstabilizationtaskforceinBaghdadindicatesanawarenessoftheproblemsassociatedwiththecreationofpowervacuumsinIraq.AllenhighlightedTikritinparticularasanupcomingcandidateforstabilizationefforts,emphasizingfourkeytenets:theclearanceoftheIslamicState,thesecurityandpolicingcomponentintheaftermath,therestorationoflocalgovernanceand,finally,theprovisionofessentialservices.
ThenecessityforIraqiforcestoleadthewayineffortsagainsttheIslamicStateillustratesthegeneralconsensusamongthecoalitioncountries:thatwhilethemilitantforcesneedtobeneutralized,thereisnostomachforthecommittalofsignificantexternalgroundforces.Money,closeairsupport,weaponsandlimitednumbersofadvisersarelikelytoremaintheorderoftheday,especiallyforWesterncountriesthathavenodesiretobecomeembroiledoncemoreinaMiddleEasterngroundcampaign.
March 14-16
Aftertwoweeksoffairlysteadygainsbysecurityforcesontheground,thebattleforTikritappearstohavehitastickingpoint.AsStratforpreviouslynoted,themostdifficultpartofanyurbanoperationistheclearancephasephysicallyrootingtheenemyoutfromeverydefendedareaandhidingplace.HavingsuccessfullyencircledTikrit,theIraqiarmyandShiitemilitias,supportedbyIranianadvisersandsomeSunnitribalfighters,nowhavetoeliminatetheIslamicStateforcescontainedwithin.
Completelycutoffforanumberofdays,theremainingIslamicStatefightershavewithdrawntoanumberofdefensivepositionsandmaindefendedareasintheheartofTikrit'sdowntown.AnumberofmilitantsarealsoholedupintheSaddamerapalacecomplex,provingdifficulttodislodge.Althoughthesecurityforceshavenumerical,technologicalandlogisticalsuperiority,theextremelyrigorousdefensebyIslamicStatehasmade
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battletikritentersitsfinalhour 6/13
advancingthefinalkilometersslowandcostly.ThousandsofimprovisedexplosivedevicesandconventionalmunitionshavebeenseededthroughoutTikrit,defeatingvehiclesanddismountedinfantryalike.IslamicStatesharpshootershavealsotargetedcombatengineersattemptingtoclearthedevices.
TheemploymentofvehicleborneIEDsandsuicidebombersraisesthestakesforthesecurityforces,addinganotherlayerofthreatandcomplexitytothealreadyhazardousthreedimensionalurbanbattlespace.Thepresenceofciviliansisafurthercomplication.SecurityforcesaretryingtomoveTikrit'spopulationawayfromthefighting,incurringfurtherdelays.Theriskofcollateraldamageisextremelyhighinbuiltupareas,andreportsindicatethattheIslamicStateispreventinglocalIraqisfromfleeing,valuingtheiruseashumanshields.TherearealsobelievedtobeanumberofhighlevelIslamicStatecommanderstrappedinTikritaswell,personnelwhohaveanintelligencevalueifcapturedalive.
Therequirementtobemethodical,preventciviliancasualtiesandleavesomeoftheenemyalivewillbeaserioustestfortheIraqisecurityforces.Itwillalsoputfrontlinepersonnelinextremedanger,whichhasalreadybeenreflectedinthemountingnumberofsecurityforcedeadandwounded,andthesteadystreamofreinforcementsandbattlefieldcasualtyreplacementscomingupfromthesouth.
Inadditiontothefrictionontheground,Stratforsourcesindicatethattensionisincreasingatthepoliticallevel,too.ThetakingofTikritisamajormilestoneinthefightagainsttheIslamicStateandBaghdadcannotaffordadebacle.Also,theIranianmilitaryadviserswhohavebeenprovidingguidanceandsupporttoIraqiforceshaveboastedoftheirabilitytomanageTikritwithoutU.S.ledcoalitionsupport.Asforwardmomentumgrindsslowerandslower,elementsoftheIraqiarmyarebeginningtoassertthattheprecisionofcoalitionairstrikesiskeytounlockingTikrit.However,thisisanuntenablepositionforbothWashingtonandTehran.TheUnitedStates,alongwithcoalitionpartnersandKurdishpeshmerga,iscommittedtosupportingtheassaultonMosul,whichisexpectedtobethetruetestofIraqisecurityforces.IranistakingtheleadinTikrit.ItisunlikelyfromapurelydiplomaticperspectivethateitherIranortheUnitedStateswouldbecontentwithsharingthesamebattlespace,forwhateverreason.
TheU.S.ledcoalitionmaywellbeabletoprovidedecisiveairinterventioninthebattleforTikrit,butnotwhiletheIraniansareinvolved.And,pullingoutissomethingTehranisnotpreparedtodo,notwhileithasitsowngeopoliticalinterestsintheregion.So,fornow,thebattleforTikritisonthevergeofstalling.Forthesecurityforcestopresshometheadvantagetheyhavegainedthusfar,Baghdadmustacceptthatthebloodiestdaysofthebattleareyettocome.
March 12-13
TheIslamicStatecontinuestogiveupgroundinTikritafterdaysofintensefighting.TheIraqiarmy,supportedbyShiitemilitias,IranianmilitaryadvisersandsomeSunnitribalfighters,isconsolidatingitspositionaroundcentralTikrit.PocketsofresistanceremaininSaddam'spalaceandoutlyingareas,butthemainIslamicStateforceislargelycontainedinthecentralbusinessdistrictandindustrialbelt.
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battletikritentersitsfinalhour 7/13
ReportsindicatethattheentireeastbankoftheTigrisRiverisundercontrolofsecurityforcesandthattheIslamicState'snorthernsupplyrouteissevered,preventingfurtherreinforcementsorexfiltration.AlthoughIslamicStatefightershaveconcededterritory,theycontinuetoexactacostontheattackingforcesurbanterrainisaforcemultiplierfordefenders.Aswellasemployingconventionalweaponsandskirmishtactics,theyaremakingextensiveuseofimprovisedexplosivedevices.
EnteringthebuiltupareaofdowntownTikrit,thesecurityforcesareheavilychanneledandmustexposethemselvestoboobytraps,murderholesandsniperfireastheybegintheclearanceinearnest.AlthoughtheIraqistatemediaclaimsthathundredsofIslamicStatefightershavebeenkilledsofarinTikrit,thedeathtollcontinuestoriseonthesideofthesecurityforcesaswell.SourcesreportahighnumberofIraqicasualtiesbeingevacuatedbacktowardBaghdad,withreinforcementsbeingsentforward.Althoughgovernmentbackedforceshavetheoverwhelmingadvantage,asIslamicStateforcescontractintopositionsthatconcentratetheirmanpower,theymaybeabletoachievelocalparitywithattackingelements.
ThebattleforTikritisenteringitsfinal,bloodystages.Securityforceswillhavetoclearstreetbystreet,buildingbybuildingandroombyroom,inevitablyincurringcasualtiesastheydoso.FortheremainingIslamicStatemilitants,theirsisnowafighttothedeath,withdwindlingnumbersandlimitedammunition.Theoperationhassofarbeenasuccess,butonewithsignificantcasualtiesonbothsidesandmoretocomeintheimmediatefuture.
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battletikritentersitsfinalhour 8/13
March 11
TheTikritoffensivecontinuestomakeheadway.Althougharmedresistanceislighterthananticipated,thesheeramountofexplosivedevicesseededalongthemainaxesofadvancehasslowedtheattackingforces.Nevertheless,IraqisecurityforcesaresolidifyingtheirholdontheAlQadaisahneighborhoodtothenorth.Tothesouth,Tikritgeneralhospitalisingovernmenthands,andfightingcontinuestowrestcontrolofthepalacecomplexbuiltbySaddamHusseinonthewestbankoftheTigrisfromtheIslamicState.Accordingtorecentreports,theeastbankoftheriverisalmostentirelyunderthecontrolofsecurityforcesandShiitemilitias.
Iraq'sministerofstateforprovincialaffairs,AhmedAbdullahalJubouri,saidtheIslamicStatehasplacedaround6,000IEDsandlandminesinandaroundTikrit.ThethreatfromsuchdevicesisthesinglelargestimpedimenttotheadvanceofgroundforcesintoTikrit.Locatinganddisposingofantipersonnelandantivehicleexplosivesistimeconsumingaswellasinherentlydangerous.
SourcesonthegroundindicatethatIslamicStatefighterscontinuetoleavetheTikritbattlespaceattheirownriskIraqinewsmediareportedthattheIslamicStateisexecutingsomefleeingfighterstodissuadeotherpotentialdeserters.IraqiaviationassetshavealsobeentakingtheirtollonIslamicStateconvoysmovingbetweenTikritandHawija,amilitantbastionnortheastofBeiji,ontheroutetoKirkuk.AswellasusingU.S.
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
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producedAH64attackhelicopters,theIraqiarmyisdeployingEurocopterEC635T2lighthelicoptergunships,armedwithheavymachinegunsandunguidedrockets.RussiahassuppliedfourMi35MHindEtroopcarryingattackhelicoptersandthreeMi28HavocattackhelicopterstoaidinthefightagainsttheIslamicState.
Baghdadiskeentoemphasizetheinclusivenatureoftheoperation,withtheIraqiarmytakingtheleadinthefighting,supportedbyShiitemilitiasandaround1,000Sunnifighters,andIranassistingwithmilitaryadvisersandsomeweaponry.However,theinvolvementoftheIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorpsinanoffensiveonIraqisoilhasgeneratedconcerninsomeareasofBaghdad'spoliticalestablishmentaswellasinneighboringcountries:SaudiForeignMinisterPrinceSaudalFaisalaccusedIranoftryingtotakeoverIraqinaMarch5newsconference.
ThereisalsoconcernamongtheKurdishandSunnicommunitiesinIraqregardingtheconductofprogovernmentShiitemilitias.ThecommunitiesareworriedthatreprisalattacksagainstIslamicStatefightersmayextendtoanySunniswhowereallegedtohavesupportedorcolludedwithmilitants.Therearealsoconcernsthat,havingestablishedsomedegreeoflocalcontrol,Shiitefighterswillbereluctanttorelinquishtheirpower,possiblyfuelingfurthersectarianviolenceinthevacuumofapostIslamicStateIraq.
March 6-10
Iraqiforces,consistingofregulararmyformationsandlocalShiitemilitiasandassistedbyIranianadvisers,continuetotightenthenoosearoundIslamicStateforcesinTikrit.TheoutlyingtownofalAlamhasbeensecuredtothenortheast.ClosertoTikrititself,thesuburbofalDawrhasbeensecuredtothesouth,theAlQadaisahneighborhoodtothenorth,andpartsofAlbuAjeelareinthehandsofBaghdad'sforces.Iraqi
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/strategic-reversal-united-states-iran-and-middle-east
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formationstothewestofTikrithavesecuredtheentirewestside,forcingIslamicStatefighterstowithdrawbacktothecityproper.
SourcesonthegroundreportedthatmissileandartilleryfirehadbeendirectedatIslamicStatestrongholdsinthecenterofTikrit,whileunconfirmedreportssaidmilitantshadbeenseenfleeingnorthfromTikritandalAlamtoBeiji,andonwardtoHawija.DespiteeffortstocompletelyencircleTikrit,theIslamicStatehasbeenabletomaintainasupplylinetothenorth.ThecommanderofIraqiarmyaviation,Gen.HamidalMaliki,drewattentiontotherateofattritionachievedbyIraqicloseairsupport,whichincludesAH64attackhelicoptersbuiltandsuppliedbytheUnitedStates.ThegeneralsaidMarch10thatover30vehiclesusedbytheIslamicStatehadbeendestroyedinandaroundTikritandthatasignificantnumberofcasualtieshadbeeninflictedonthegroup.
U.S.Gen.MartinDempsey,chairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,metwithIraq'sprimeministeranddefenseministerinBaghdadonMarch9todiscusstheongoingmilitaryoperationsinSalahuddinandAnbarprovinces.DempseyappearedbeforetheSenateArmedServicesCommitteeinWashingtononMarch3,callingtheinvolvementofIranianbackedShiitemilitiasinthefightforTikritpositive,aslongastheirpresencedidnotexacerbatetensionswiththeSunnicommunity,somethingthatcouldeasilyderailtheunityof
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Baghdad'sforcesinthefightagainsttheIslamicState.
March 1-5
TheIraqiarmymadegainsinruralareaseastofTikrit,havingestablishedablockingpositiontothewest.BycapturingthesuburbsofalDawrtothesouthandalAlamtothenorth,IslamicStatefightershaveincreasinglybeenforcedtofallbacktothecity.InanattempttoslowadvancingforcesanddisruptairstrikesfromIraqifixedwingaircraftandattackhelicopters,themilitantssetfiretotheAjiloilfield,creatingmassivecloudsofsmoke.
ReportscontinuetoindicatethatIraqiattemptstolockdownTikrithavenotbeensuccessful,withIslamicStatefightersstillpossessinglimitedfreedomofmovement.SourcesonthegroundclaimthatelementsoftheIslamicStateleadershipinTikrithavealreadyfledthecity.AlthoughitisunlikelythattheIslamicStatewouldrelinquishitsgriponTikritwithoutextractingacostontheattackingforces,theexodusofgroundcommanderscouldindicateanexpectationthatthecitywillfall.Additionalreports,however,suggestthatIslamicStateforceshaveabandonedQayyarahAirBase,southofMosul,tofreeupreinforcementsforTikrit.Thiswouldindicatethemilitantgroupispreparedtostanditsground,orintheworstcase,counterattackinforce.
ImprovisedexplosivedevicesandsniperfireareslowingBaghdad'sforcesandantiIslamicStatemilitias.AroadsidebombinthesouthernalDawrdistrictkilledthecommanderoftheShiitemilitiaLeagueofRighteousnessonMarch4,alongwithhisbodyguard.OtherproIraqigovernmentforcesdiscoveredabombmakingfactoryintheNaouradistrict,recoveringsome40explosivedevicesreadyforuse.
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
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Aftertighteningtheperimeter,about30,000IraqisoldiersandShiitemilitiafightersarepoisedtoattackthecitywithaircoverfromrotaryandfixedwingaircraft.FightingintheurbanenvironmentwillbecostlierforthemilitarybecausethebuiltupterraingivesthedefendingIslamicStateforcesasignificantadvantage.Anestimated28,000civilianshavealreadyfledthecityinanticipationofthecomingassault.
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https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/explaining-greeces-financial-disarrayhttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemens-persistent-humanitarian-crisishttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/explaining-greeces-financial-disarrayhttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battle-tikrit-reveals-deeper-truthshttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china-fears-us-missile-system-south-koreahttps://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.stratfor.com%2Fanalysis%2Fbattle-tikrit-enters-its-final-hour&title=The%20Battle%20for%20Tikrit%20Enters%20its%20Final%20Hour&description=March%2026%20-%20March%2031%20Although%20a%20March%2031%20announcement%20by%20Iraqi%20Prime%20Minister%20Haider%20al-Abadi%20that%20Tikrit%20is%20recaptured%20may%20prove%20premature%2C%20it%20appears%20that%20the%20operation%20is%20in%20its%20final%20stages%20and%20that%20Baghdad%20has%20enough%20combat%20power%20to%20complete%20the%20painstaking%20clearance%20of%20Islamic%20State%20fighters%20from%20the%20city.https://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical-diary/battle-tikrit-and-netanyahus-advicehttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/nigerias-2015-presidential-election-four-possible-scenarioshttps://www.stratfor.com/weekly/old-order-collapses-finallyhttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/yemens-persistent-humanitarian-crisishttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battle-tikrit-reveals-deeper-truthshttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/china-fears-us-missile-system-south-koreahttps://www.stratfor.com/analysis/nigerias-2015-presidential-election-four-possible-scenarios
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4/1/2015 TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/battletikritentersitsfinalhour 13/13
RELATED SITUATION REPORTS
Israel: Ground Operation Will Not Be Launched For 24 Hours, Official Says
Iraq: United States Launches Airstrikes On Tikrit
Iran: Nuclear Negotiators Making Final Push
https://www.stratfor.com/situation-report/iran-nuclear-negotiators-making-final-pushhttps://www.stratfor.com/situation-report/israel-ground-operation-will-not-be-launched-24-hours-official-sayshttps://www.stratfor.com/situation-report/iraq-united-states-launches-airstrikes-tikrit