I. The liberal consensus
II. Trends in conflict and governance
III. The consensus in crisis?
IV. Beyond the consensus
1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensusPersonnel contributions to UN peacekeeping, 1990-2013
UN
IFO
RM
ED
PER
SO
NN
EL C
ON
TR
IBU
TIO
NS
1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensusCountry Programmable Aid to fragile states 2000 – 2011
CP
A in
mill
ions
of
US
D
1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensusFastest 20 reformers’ progress in institutional transformation
Source: Pritchett and de Weijer 2010
1990 – 2010 post-Cold War liberal consensusTheory of change: fragility to functioning state,15-30 years
• Residual conflict: The human security challenge
I. Largest driver of poverty
II. Globally networked
III. Increasingly criminalised
IV. Hard to escape
V. Hard to predict
Trends in conflict and governance
Source: WDR 2011
For every 3 years a country is affected by major violence, poverty reduction lags behind by 2.7%.
Trends in conflict and governanceResidual Conflict: Largest driver of poverty
Povert
y h
ead
cou
nt
(% o
f p
op
ula
tion
liv
ing
belo
w $
1
.25
a d
ay)
Countries affected by major violence Countries affected by minor violenceCountries with negligible or no violence
Trends in conflict and governanceResidual Conflict: Largest driver of poverty
Until the early 1990’s, per capita incomes and growth in Burkina Faso and Burundi were similar. Following massive violence in Burundi, their growth paths diverged.
Burundi has lost nearly two decades of income growth, with incomes set back to the 1970’s level.
Source: WDR 2011
Trends in conflict and governanceResidual Conflict: Largest driver of poverty
Source: The Brookings Institution
Trends in conflict and governanceResidual Conflict: Globally networked
Sources: http://unama.unmissions.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=K0B5RL2XYcU%3D; http://icasualties.org/oef/;http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/programs/foreign%20policy/afghanistan%20index/index20130827.pdf;
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2489
31013343
4167
4724
6656
Afghanistan (civilian, police and military deaths)
Trends in conflict and governanceResidual Conflict: Globally networked
Sources: Justice in Mexico; UNAMA; The Brookings Institution
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2826
6837
9614
15273
16800
12903(projection)
24893101 3343
41674724
6656
Mexico (Organized Crime Related Killings)Afghanistan (civilian, police and military deaths)
Polity and the Onset of Instability, 1955-2006
Trends in conflict and governanceResidual conflict: hard to escape
Source: CSP 2014
Polity and the Onset of Instability, 1955-2006
Trends in conflict and governanceResidual conflict: hard to predict
Source: CSP 2014
Annual deaths from political violence, 1946 – 2013
The consensus in crisis? Global trends in armed conflict, 1946 – 2014
Source: CSP 2014
*
Source: CSP 2014* 2014 Estimates
The consensus in crisis? Global trends in governance, 1946-2014
Source: CSP 2014
* 2014 Estimates
*
*