Download - We'll fix it
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Logística,tecnologia e globalização
A. Linhares
Fundação Getulio Vargas
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
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“We’ll fix that.”
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O que esta lista de países sugere?
• Burundi• Uzbequistão• Níger• Bolívia• Mongólia• Afeganistão• Paraguai• Zimbabue• Botswana• Kazaquistão
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Em 24 de Maio de 1993, com a independência da Eritréia, a Etiópia perdeu acesso ao Mar Vermelho e entrou para o grupo das nações aficanas landlocked.
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“Shipping a standard container from Baltimore to the Ivory Coast costs about $3,000, while sending that same container to the landlocked Central African Republic costs $13,000.”
“PRISIONERS OF
GEOGRAPHY”, Ricardo Hausmann,
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University,
former chief economist of the Inter-American Development Bank.
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Então todos os países landlocked estão amaldiçoados?
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Suíça: Travada entre França, Alemanha, Áustria, Liechenstein e Itália.
Se você não pode ir aos mercados, então os mercados vêm a você: mais de 40% do que a Suíça exporta é para seus vizinhos diretos; mais de 55% do que ela importa vem de seus vizinhos diretos.
Note as influências linguísticas ao oeste (“Lac de Neuchâtel”), sul (“Lago Maggiore”), e norte (“Zurichsee”).
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Processando 1kg de leite com cacau e vendendo por US$30
(PS: o Brasil exporta a tonelada do cacau a US$2.000)
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Desenvolvendo um sólido e confiável sistema financeiro
Processando 1kg de leite com cacau e vendendo por US$30
(PS: o Brasil exporta a tonelada do cacau a US$2.000)
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Mercado Global de Cacau:
US$4.000.000.000,00
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Mercado Global de Chocolate:
US$ 4.000.000.000,00
US$75.000.000.000,00
The Economist, April 4th 2007
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Global Market
Cocoa
Chocolate
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Processando 1kg de leite com cacau e vendendo por US$30
(PS: o Brasil exporta a tonelada do cacau a US$2.000)
Desenvolvendo um sólido e confiável sistema financeiro
Produzindo relógios como este Audemars Piguet,
edição especial comemorativa da vitória de Allinghi na America’s Cup,
e o vendendo por US$23.500,00
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Porquê a Suíça é tão rica?
• Ela já tem fácil acesso a mercados gigantescos, como a Alemanha (PIB: US$2.160 trilhões), França (PIB: US$1.558 trilhões), Itália (PIB: US$1.455 trilhões), e Áustria (PIB: US$227 bilhões).
• Seus produtos e serviços têm alto valor agregado, de forma que o custo de frete não é a parcela determinante.
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Os não-landlocked: Os Estados Unidos e a criação do Union Pacific
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Modal US$ / Tonelada (Minist. Transportes, 2001)
Hidroviário 0,45
Marítimo 0,64
Ferroviário 0,79
Rodoviário 28,93
Combustível p/ unidade de kilometragem. Fonte: MT
Como se distribuem os custos de transporte sobre vários modais?Vejamos os custos com combustível.
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The Pacific Railway Act
July 1, 1862
(U. S. Statutes at Large, Vol. XII, p. 489 ff.)
“An Act to aid in the Construction of a Railroad and Telegraph Line from the Missouri River to the Pacific Ocean. . . .”
Abraham Lincoln
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1883: Término da Southern Pacific
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1885: término da Santa Fe
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E não satisfeitos com a integração terrestre...
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O presidente Roosevelt, que tinha grande orgulho do poder da marinha americana, havia ficado impressionado com o incidente durante a guerra espanhola envolvendo a viagem do navio de guerra Oregon por dois meses ao redor da América do Sul, o que fez com que sua chegada fosse irrelevante para o término da guerra.
Afinal de contas, para quê dar a volta ao redor da América do Sul?
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O Canal de Panamá: a distância do Pacífico até os mares do Caribe é de 67.5kms (o diâmetro foi aumentado para 150 metros). Uma passagem leva em torno de 8-9 horas, para as 30-40 embarcações diárias. Mais de 17,000 navios passam pelo Canal anualmente, trazendo uma
receita de mais de US$600 milhões para o Panamá.
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oito minutos depois...
Como há uma diferença de níveis entre as águas do Pacífico e do Golfo do Panamá, foi necessária a construção de represas e mecanismos de nivelamento. Mais de 22,000 pessoas morreram durante a construção do Canal, a maioria de Malária ou de Febre Amarela.
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Cada navio é cobrado por peso. O navio mais pesado a atravessar o Canal foi o francês Infinity de 90.000 Toneladas. Seu pedágio recorde foi de US$200.000. Já a travessia mais leve pertence a um biruta chamado Richard Halliburton, que nadou o trajeto durante 10 dias em 1928, e pagou US$0.36 por seus 75 quilos.
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Hoje não só a marinha americana e seus aliados podem desfrutar do Canal, mas o mesmo é utilizado para rotas de comércio e turismo, integrando ainda mais os Estados Unidos.
Temos ao lado o USS Missouri em seu retorno após o término da 2a grande guerra
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Portanto, os Estados Unidos possuem baixos custos de transporte com a Europa, baixos custos de transporte com a Ásia, e baixos custos de transporte interno.
Já o Brasil não possui baixos custos de transporte para a Ásia, e não possui baixos custos de transporte interno. Vejamos alguns desafios para o Brasil...
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Theme 1Logistics is a fight between geography and topology
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Logistics is a fight between geography and topology
Topology is a branch of mathematics
Rubber ball geometry
•Transformation of objects•Concept of distance or movement
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A topological transformation
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A topological transformation
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Logistics is a fight between geography and topology
Quem já esteve nos Estados Unidos?
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Logistics is a fight between geography and topology
Quem já esteve no Complexo do Alemão?
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Theme 2What happens when transaction costs go to zero?
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Lote econômico de compra
Assume-se que:• A demanda para o produto é constante e uniforme
ao longo do período• O tempo de entrega é constante• Preço por unidade de produto é constante• O custo de manutenção de inventário é baseado
no inventário médio• Custos de pedido (e setup) são constantes• Toda a demanda será satisfeita (não haverá
backorders)
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Lote econômico de compra
R = Reorder pointQ = Economic order quantityL = Lead time
L L
Q QQ
R
Time
Numberof unitson hand
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Lote econômico de compra:Custos de armazenagem
Custos de armazenagem = H (Q/2)
Onde H é o custo unitário de armazenagem (anual)
HoldingCosts
Order Quantity (Q) : pedir o mínimo possível?
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Lote econômico de compra:Custos de pedido
Custos de pedido = P (D/Q)
Onde P é o custo de cada pedido
Ordering Costs
Order Quantity (Q) : pedir o máximo possível?
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Lote econômico de compra:Custos totais
TC = P (D/Q) + H (Q/2)
Ordering Costs
HoldingCosts
Order Quantity (Q)
Total Cost=holding costs + ordering costs
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Lote econômico de compra:o custo total
TC = P (D/Q) + H (Q/2)
Ordering Costs
HoldingCosts
QOPT
Order Quantity (Q)
Total Cost=holding costs + ordering costs
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Lote econômico de compra:o custo total
TC = P (D/Q) + H (Q/2)
Derivando em Q, temos 22
H
Q
DP
dQ
dTC
M i n i m i z a n d o o s c u s t o s t o t a i s a n u a i s , t e m o s q u e
H
DPQ
Q
DPHopt
20
2 2
e t e m o s q u e R = d L
O n d e d é a d e m a n d a m é d i a d i á r i a , e L é o t e m p o d ee n t r e g a e m d i a s ( L e a d t i m e ) . A m b o s s ã o c o n s t a n t e s .
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What happens when transaction costs go to zero?
TC = P (D/Q) + H (Q/2)
HoldingCosts
QOPT
Order Quantity (Q)
Annual Cost of items
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What happens when transaction costs go to zero?
If P=0, Then
1. stocks 0
and
2. we’re always ordering
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What happens when transaction costs go to zero?
If stocks = 0 and we’re always ordering…
then...
(i) squeezing out every bit of efficiency
(ii) vulnerable to disruptions
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Squeezing out efficiency
Michael Dell
• Born 1965
• US$ 17.000.000.000,00 Net worth
(4th richest american, Forbes 2005)
• Dell sales: US$49 Billion (2004)
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Squeezing out efficiency
Dell’s color laser printer 5110cn
Dell started offering printers circa 2004
When mentioning that “the printer business has high profit margins, Dell responded”:
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“We’ll fix that.”
From The Economist print edition, Technology's Mr Predictable: Michael Dell's money-making machine has further scope for growth, Face value column, Sep 22nd 2005
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Why is this course important?
Because the mindset has changed from large margins should be strived for towards the view that large margins should be fixed.
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We’ll fix that
FORBES 2005 Top 10 1. Bill Gates Microsoft (linux, openoffice, Ajax, etc) 2. Warren Buffett 3. Paul Allen Microsoft (linux, openoffice, Ajax,
etc) 4. Michael Dell Dell (fixing it) 5. Larry Ellison Oracle (web2.0, ajax, etc) 6. Christy Walton Wal-Mart (fixing it) 7. Jim Walton Wal-Mart (fixing it) 8. S. Robson Walton Wal-Mart (fixing it) 9. Alice Walton Wal-Mart (fixing it) 10. Helen Walton Wal-Mart (fixing it)
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Bill Gates & Paul Allen (Microsoft)
OpenOffice: US$0,00
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Larry Ellison (Oracle)
Zoho CRM: US$0,00 (3 users), US$12/user, if #>3
JD Edwards EnterpriseOneCustomer Relationship ManagementUS$ Thousands/user
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Will you fix that?
• IBM versus DELL
• MICROSOFT versus OpenOffice
• VARIG versus GOL
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Vulnerability
As supply chains become more integrated and leaner, they become more vulnerable to disruption.
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Albuquerque, March 2000. Lightning strikes down the cooling system of a Philips semiconductor plant.
A small fire is put out, and Phillips tells its customers, Nokia & Ericsson, that in a week production will resume. Ericsson says ‘Ok’. Nokia prepares for the worse.
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As it turned out, the clean areas of the factory had been contaminated, and it could take months to resume production.
When Ericsson finally looked for alternative suppliers, Nokia had already grabbed deals with them.
In 2001, after huge losses in the mobile-phone division, Ericsson decided to quit making handsets on its own. Instead, it put that part of its business into a joint venture with Sony.
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Theme 3A country should be open, not closed
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A country should be open, not closed
• Burundi vs. USA• Hong Kong vs. Bolivia• Israel vs. Syria• East Germany vs. West Germany, pre-89
The higher the flux, the better they are.
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A country should be open, not closed
A country, a company, a person should be open:-to FDI-to ideas-to competition-to technology-to trade-to transport
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Theme 4Standardization & the Plug and Play architecture
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Standardization & the Plug and Play architecture
• Containers
• rss feeds
• IEEE 1394
• TCP/IP
• Ajax
• Electricity Grid
• Microsoft Office
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1. Someone makes a standard, or a standard comes out as a winner in a fight between competing standards
2. An explosion of productivity enables mass production of goods and services based on this ‘plug and play’ architecture
3. The idea behind this?
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Exemplo 1. Revólveres em 1860
Nos anos 1860, havia grande dificuldade de se montar revólveres e outras armas, devido à precisão de encaixe de suas várias peças.
Por volta de 1880, surgiram os instrumentos conhecidos como “micrometers” para medições precisas de peças e partes. Isso permitiu que estas peças e partes fossem intercambiáveis, o que foi fundamental para a produção em massa.
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Consumidores então não mais precisavam retornar aos produtores para realizar manutenção.
• Agora, com a standardização, qualquer peça poderia ser trocada sem necessidade de ser especialmente adaptada a cada arma.
• Este foi um grande avanço. Todo mundo que já experimentou matar alguém usando uma faca sabe que é muito inconveniente: há muito sangue, suor, e lágrimas, dá um trabalho enorme. Além do que deve-se sempre tomar cuidado para não se cortar.
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Example 2. Adobe Acrobat
• The PDF file standard enables people to swap files without any regard for which computer, program, typeface it was created.
• Adobe acrobat forms also let people print the forms, then scan them back in digital form in a way that there is no friction between paper copy and electronic ones.
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Theme 5The end of the middleman
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The end of the middleman
Universal, Sony/BMG, Warner and EMI have seen sales of recorded music shrink by a fifth between 1999 and 2003.
Are they “fixing it”?
Or is Apple Computer?
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The end of the middleman
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Questions for thought
1. How did people change topology in the past?2. How did people minimize the friction of
transaction costs?3. Which countries and companies were open in
the past?4. Which standards emerged? Which gains of
scale did they bring?5. Which middleman are gone?