黙殺されてきたシリア内戦最大の被害者たちは何を欲しているか
IDPs世論調査結果の地域研究的解読
What Do the Most Numerous Grouping of Victims of the Syrian Civil War, Who Have
Been Ignored, Want?Interpretation of Public Opinion Poll Results of IDPs,
Understood through Area Studies
青山 弘之(東京外国語大学・教授)
Hiroyuki AOYAMA(Prof.@Tokyo Univ. of Foreign Studies)
黙殺されてきたシリア内戦最大の被害者Most Numerous Grouping of Victims of the Syrian Civil War, Who Have Been Ignored政府支配地と北・東シリア自治局支配地の国内避難民(IDPs)Internally displaced persons (IDPs) in areas controlled by Syrian government and Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria
「何を欲しているか」を知る従前的手法(質的研究)とその制約Previous Methods to Know “What IDPs Wants” (Qualitative Research) and Their Limitation
歴史学(叙述型研究) ← 資料Historical Study (Descriptive Study) ← Text社会調査・文学 ← コニュニケーション、情報のやりとりSocial Survey, Literature ← Communication, information transmission
本報告の手法に対してありがちな批判Common Criticism of Method of This Presentation本研究の手法Method of This Presentation世論調査結果の分析Analysis of Result of Public Opinion Survey量的研究 + 地域研究Quantitative research + Area study
本報告の手法に対してありがちな批判Common Criticism of Method of This Presentationありがちな批判Common Criticism人々は権威主義支配下の世論調査に萎縮する→ 社会的望ましさバイアスPeople certainly shrink from public opinion survey under authoritarian rule→ Social desirability bias人々に寄り添わなければ本音は聞けないNever find out people really think without getting close to them
中東世論調査(シリア国内避難民2018)Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syrian IDPs 2018)日本学術振興会科学研究費助成事業「東アラブ地域の非公的政治主体による国家機能の補完・簒奪に関する研究」とシリア世論調査研究センター(SOCPS)の合同プロジェクトCollaborative Project of “Roles of the Informal Actors in Reconstruction and/or Destruction of the State: Case Studies of the Arab East” (Grant‐in‐Aid for Scientific Research, JSPS)詳細は「中東世論調査(シリア避難民2018)」(https://cmeps‐j.net/ja/poll_surveys/syria2018)を参照For details, see “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syrian IDPs 2018)” (https://cmeps‐j.net/poll_surveys/syria2018)
調査概要Outline of Survey2018年8月~12月に実施Implemented in Aug. – Dec. 2018代表6県に在住する18~70歳までの国内避難民男女1,817人1,817 IDPs, aged from 18 to 70 years old, in Syria
Male, 878
Female, 622
1930s, 2
1940s, 15
1950s, 114
1960s, 206
1970s, 394
1980s, 386
1990s, 369
2000s, 13
Once, 789
Twice, 407
3 times, 214
4 times, 50
5 times, 21
6 times, 7 7 times, 8 8 times, 210 times,
2
1985, 1 1988, 1 1922, 1 2011, 20
2012, 212
2013, 293
2014, 331
2015, 246
2016, 206
2017, 170
2018, 19
Damascus, 77
Aleppo, 533
Damascus Suburb, 136
Hims, 263
Hama, 50
Latakia, 13
Idlib, 108
Al‐Hasakah, 55
Deir ez‐Zor, 204
Tartus, 2
Raqqa, 41 Daraa, 9 As‐Suwayda, 5 Quneitra, 3
Clerical, 185
Professional, 227
Service/sales, 297
Agriculture, 44
Manufacture, 160
Retired, 83
Student, 107
No occupation, 275
Other, 113
Missing Value, 8
No income, 250
Less than $100 (SP 50,000), 577
$101‐200(SP50,001‐100,000), 432
$201‐300(SP100,001‐150,000), 129
$301‐400(SP150,001‐200,000), 72
$401‐500(SP200,001‐250,000), 29
More than $501 (SP 250,001), 4
Do not now, 1
Missing Value, 5
統計データStatistical Data国際連合人道問題調整事務所UNOCHA 6,100,000人(2017年9月現在)6,100,000 (as of Sep. 2017)
シリア地方自治省Syrian Local Administration Ministry帰還者:4,200,000人(2018年12月20日現在)Returnees: 4,200,000 (as of Dec. 20, 2018)IDPs:2,919,000人(2018年12月25日現在)IDPs: 2,919,000 (as of Dec. 25, 2018)
統計データStatistical Dataロシア難民受入移送居住センターRussian Center for Reconciliation of Opposing Sides and Refugee Migration Monitor2015年9月30日以降の帰還者:1,294,169人(2019年5月1日)Returnees since Sep. 30, 2015: 1,294,169 (as of May 1, 2019)2018年の帰還者:186,234人Returnees in 2018: 186,2342019年の帰還者:12,387人(2019年5月1日)Returnees in 2019: 25,573人
質問票Questionnaire復興に関するIDPsの意識(とりわけニーズ)Perception (esp. needs) of IDPs regarding reconstruction教育 Education住宅再建 Housing rehabilitationメンタル・サポート Mental support生活状況改善 Living condition improvement衛生 Health
質問票Questionnaire諸外国の復興への貢献(IDPs支援)の可否Contributions of foreign countries to reconstruction (and assist of IDPs)生活状況改善 Living condition improvementIDPsのリハビリ rehabilitation of IDPs市民のニーズへの対応 Needs of civilians投資 Investment復興 Reconstruction
質問票Questionnaire質問票は「中東世論調査(シリア避難民2018)」(https://cmeps‐j.net/ja/poll_surveys/syria2018)を参照For questionnaire, see “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syrian IDPs 2018)” (https://cmeps‐j.net/poll_surveys/syria2018)
調査結果Result of Survey詳細は「「中東世論調査(シリア避難民2018)」単純集計報告書」(https://cmeps‐j.net/wp‐content/uploads/2019/03/cmeps‐j_report_45.pdf)を参照
For details, see “Report of Simple Tally of “Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syrian IDPs 2018)”” (https://cmeps‐j.net/wp‐content/uploads/2019/03/cmeps‐j_report_46.pdf)
2.25 3.58
2.40
2.49
3.27
2.76
2.18
2.30
3.29
2.96
2.56
2.36
2.22
2.55
2.57
USRussia
UK
France
China
Germany
Saudi Arabia
TurkeyIran
Japan
Lebanon
Jordan
Qatar
Sweden
N.Korea
ストレートな質問への回答の分析Analysis of Answers to Straight Questions各国評価Evaluation of foreign countries諸外国の二局的な分布の確認To confirm bipolarization of foreign coutries自身の政治的立場(の正しさ)を確認するだけの自己満足?To be self‐satisfied with (propriety of) one’s own political stance?
2.25 3.58
2.40
2.49
3.27
2.76
2.18
2.30
3.29
2.96
2.56
2.36
2.22
2.55
2.57
USRussia
UK
France
China
Germany
Saudi Arabia
TurkeyIran
Japan
Lebanon
Jordan
Qatar
Sweden
N.Korea
予想外への解釈Interpretation of Out‐of‐Expectation日本、ドイツJapan, Germany政治性の低さUnpoliticalness印象の薄さUnimpressivness
聞けない質問の答えAnswers to Unaskable Questionsアサド政権を支持していますか?Do you support al‐Assad regime?アサド政権の政策を支持していますか?Do you support policies of al‐Assad regime?
質問票から削除した質問Questions delated from Questionnaire違法な占領を行う国の撤退On withdrawal of illegally occupied countries支持政党Political affiliates
185
190
309
427
462
548
668
725
834
Combatting corruption
Local reconciliation process
Withdrawal of unlawful foreign troops from the Syrian territory
Return of refugees
Eliminating terrorism
Return of internally displaced persons
Housing rehabilitation
Improving the living condition
Restoring security and stability
市民社会が取り組むべき優先課題Priority Issues That Civil Society Should Address
テロとの戦い
占領地回復
自発的に参加したい優先課題Priority Issues That You Want to Spontaneously Participate
252
379
443
451
487
506
511
650
681
Withdrawal of unlawful foreign troops from the Syrian territory
Eliminating terrorism
Combatting corruption
Improving the living condition
Local reconciliation process
Restoring security and stability
Return of refugees
Return of internally displaced persons
Housing rehabilitation
テロとの戦い
占領地回復
悪魔化の弊害(ないしは盲点)Evil (or Blind Point) of Demonizationいわゆる独裁に対する反対意見は日常的に表明されるPeople express their dissenting opinions of so‐call dictatorship on a daily basisいわゆる独裁は、反対意見を常に封じ込めるのではなく、それに日常的に耳を傾けているSo‐called dictatorship does not necessarily oppress dissenting opinions but listens to them on a daily basis
悪魔化の弊害(ないしは盲点)Evil (or Blind Point) of Demonization暴力の連鎖の契機は?What is starting point of succession of violence?
al‐Hayat, April 8, 2011
参照Reference「中東世論調査(シリア国内避難民2018)」現代中東政治研究ネットワーク(CMESP‐J.net)(https://cmeps‐j.net/ja/poll_surveys/syria2018)“Middle East Public Opinion Survey (Syrian Internally Displaced Persons 2018),” Contemporary Middle East Political Studies in Japan.net (CMEPS‐J.net) (https://cmeps‐j.net/poll_surveys/syria2018)