You walk into a room and find Karen and Joe dead. The only evidence at the scene is some broken glass and a puddle of water. How did Karen and Joe die?
“LS 1 was my favorite course.”
“I had both a fun and enlightening time in LS 1.”
“LS 1 made me much more aware of the world around me and helped me engage in critical thinking.”
2003 LS 1 Students
“[My writings] have virtues that cannot be disentangled from the faults ... there is a way of being wrong which is also sometimes necessarily right.”
Edward Abbey, 1967
Part II - Ways of Knowing (Fixing Belief)
Induction – an argument from a random sample to a population
Deduction – an argument from a population to a random sample
Charles Sanders Peirce – Fixing Belief
Beliefs (cling to) and Doubts (try to eliminate)
Beliefs Actions
“Irritation of Doubt” Inquiry
Methods of Fixing Belief:
Tenacity
Authority
a priori – “Agreeable to Reason” / Induction
Science
Science Reals and Truth (only way to settle opinion)
All investigators will eventually converge on the same truth in the infinite long run
Peirce Thinks We Must Choose Science
Other three methods have some merits…
But Peirce thinks we should want opinions to coincide with facts; therefore we must ultimately choose science
If a person seeks to avoid the truth, s/he “is in a sorry state of mind indeed.”
Other Thoughts on Fixing Belief & Science
Charles Darwin: Painstaking observation leads to knowing
Thomas Kuhn: “Normal science” is based upon past scientific achievements and shared paradigms (common sets of assumptions); there is a universal scientific language as well as a cumulative nature to knowing
Stephen Jay Gould: Knowledge is constantly changing – “Facts” are always reassessed, reinterpreted, reconfigured, etc.
Frank Conroy: Understanding is both a conscious and unconscious process; can take years and is often triggered by seemingly unrelated events
Benjamin Whorf & Edward Sapir: Culture and language shape each other and structure the way we perceive the world; thus there isn’t a single reality
Some Questions to Think About
Are “Reals” really independent of opinion?
Can all questions be answered with science?
The Rational Decision Making Process
Define/DiagnoseThe Problem or
Issue
Define/DiagnoseThe Problem or
Issue
Develop AlternativeSolutions
Develop AlternativeSolutions
EvaluateAlternatives
EvaluateAlternatives
Choose Best Alternative and
Implement It
Choose Best Alternative and
Implement It
Are Decision Making (Problem Analysis and Solving) Processes Completely Rational?
Mate Choice & College Choice
8:00 Classes & Alarm Clocks
Traffic Patterns & The “Energy Bill”
9/11 Response
Some recent examples:
Problem Analysis and Problem Solving Perils
Don’t have complete information
Focus on symptoms not the core problem or issue
Differences in underlying assumptions and beliefs
There isn’t a problem or issue, rather there are many interrelated problems and issues
As a Result: Decision making is not a rational process.
Too many issues, too many choices, not enough time, other resource limitations, cognitive limitations, etc. Thus, our rationality is bounded.
These limitations lead to satisficing behavior as opposed to maximizing behavior (college choice, job choice, mate choice?)
S/he who defines the problem or issue has just as much, if not more, power than s/he who solves it! (energy issue, Iraq, academic rigor)
Decision Making Problems in Groups
Group Polarization: Groups tend to make more extreme decisions; individuals in group not as accountable
Glenbrook High “Powder Puff” Hazing
Decision Making Problems in Groups
Groupthink: Team cohesiveness leads members to strive for unanimity rather than realistically appraise alternative courses of action (Space Shuttle disasters, Iraq?)
Group is highly cohesive
Group faces external threat
Group is isolated from outsiders
Self-censorship of dissenting ideas
Excessive negative stereotyping
Unquestioned morality
Decision Making Problems in Groups
Escalation of Commitment: Self-justification, gambler’s fallacy, perceptual blinders, closing costs, etc., lead people to continue down a path of failure (Relationships, Vietnam, Building the Concorde)
Garbage Can Model of Decision Making
Solutions
Issues
Feelings
Partici
pants
Problems
Luck
$$$$
It’s only rational that decision making processes are not rational!
BUT, understanding the pitfalls leads us closer to rationality