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Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Asian Highlands
Robert Zomer, Ph.D.
Visiting Professor/ Landscape Ecologist
Center for Mountain Ecosystem Studies
Kunming Institute of Botany /
World Agroforestry Centre
Kunming, Yunnan Province, P.R. China
Our Common Future under Climate Change
Paris - July 9th, 2015
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Hindu Kush – Himalaya Source: ICIMOD
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Global Hotspot of Biodiversity
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Agrobiodiversity
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Retreating Imja Glacier (near Mt. Everest)
In 2007 (photo: Alton Byers, The
Mountain Institute)
In 1956 (Erwin Schneider, Khumbu, Nepal, 1956 – 1961 Courtesy of the Association for Comparative Alpine Research, Munich Archives of Alton Byers, The Mountain Institute)
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Climate Change in Asian Highlands Accelerated change
Temps rising faster in higher elevations
Glacial melting – rate higher than global avg.
o Glacial lake outbursts – mountain hazards
Loss of permafrost – Tibetan Plateau
Disrupted Agricultural Cycles
o Changes in timing of runoff
o More precipitation as rainfall
o Earlier snowmelt, shorter winters
Impacts on natural systems / ecological interactions
o Shifting of Species Ranges / Protected Areas
o Invasive species and pests
Increase in Extreme Events
o Floods, droughts
Impacts on communities and livelihoods
Asian Highlands – contributes very little to global GHG emissions
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• Physical change Unsustainable extraction of resources,
introduced and invasive species, forest degradation, landuse/cover change, habitat loss
• Climate change Rise in temperature, seasonal change in
precipitation regime, extreme weather conditions
• Demographic and socio-economic change
Immigration, poverty, limited development options, majority on subsistence livelihood
Conservation and Livelihood Challenges
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Year of Climate Departure:
An estimate of the year when the climate
(i.e., near surface air temperature)
exceeds the bounds of historical
variability for a particular location.
Source: Mora et al., 2013
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China – Provinces Ranked by Year of Climate Departure
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Predicted Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2000 - 2050
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Predicted Change in Mean Annual Temperature 2000 - 2050
Average 1.6 to 2.5° C by 2050
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Predicted Change in Mean Annual Precipitation 2000 - 2050
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Change in Water Balance: In-Situ Excess Water (Runoff) – 2050 (RCP 8.5)
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Percent of area shifting to another zone: 48% ; to another stratum: 85%
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Ecoregional Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Bioclimatic Zones - Kailash Sacred Landscape - China, India, Nepal
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Ecoregional Analysis of Climate Change Impact - Kailash Sacred Landscape China, India, Nepal
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Yunnan Province, China: Spatial Distribution Of Bioclimatic Zones By 2050
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Projected Impact Of Climate Change On Spatial Distribution Of Bioclimatic Zones By 2050
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BioclimaticZone Zone UpwardShift
2000 RCP85 km2% 2000 RCP85 (m)
Extremelycoldandmesic F 1,345 362 (983) (73) 4,248 4,617 368Coldandmesic G 3,830 2,564 (1,266) (33) 3,526 3,881 354
Cooltemperateandxeric H 32 304 272 850 2,985 3,510 525
Cooltemperateandmoist J 2,590 2,705 115 4 2,937 3,276 339Warmtemperateandmesic K 9,449 8,471 (978) (10) 2,225 2,491 265Warmtemperateandxeric L 403 612 209 52 1,679 2,103 424Hotandmesic N 4,370 3,452 (918) (21) 1,156 1,694 537Extremelyhotandmesic M 1,592 2,678 1,086 68 777 1,125 348
Extremelyhotandmoist R 64 2,527 2,463 3,848 606 855 249
Yunnan-AllProtectedArea 37923675
ProtectedArea(km2) AreaChange MeanElevation(masl)
AverageUpwardShift
• 56% projected to shift to different bioclimatic zone by the year 2050 (i.e., under RCP 8.5)
• 93% will shift to at least one different bioclimatic strata
Protected Area in Yunnan
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Interactions of Climate Change and On-going Landuse Change Processes
Xishuangbanna Prefecture, Yunnan Province, China • China’s “Treasure House of Biodiversity”
• Among richest areas in flowering species in the world
• Over 5000 species of flowering plant and ferns;
• 153 endemic species and 56 rare and endangered species
• Tropical/sub-tropical: Convergence of Eastern Himalaya / SEA floristic
• The region contains China’s largest area of diverse types of mature tropical forest
• Northernmost tropical rainforest in the world.
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Rubber plantations Xishuangbanna, China, 2010
credit: Science 2009 324:1024 credit: Science 2009 324:1024
credit: Nature 2009 457:246
>20,000 km2 have been converted to mono-culture rubber in mainland SE Asia (5,000 km2 forest)
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Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
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Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
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Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
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Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
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Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.
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Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.
Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
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Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.
Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
Upward zone shift of 280 meters >75% of Xishuangbanna shifting to a different zone
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Impact of Climate Changes and Landuse – Xishuangbanna, SW China
Bioclimatic Zones
By 2050, the area conducive to rubber expands to 75% of the total area.
Climatic change potentially removes the bioclimatic barriers to further expansion of rubber plantations
Rubber Expansion: 8 to 22% of total area of Xishuangbanna Almost all available optimal land, i.e. below 900m
Upward zone shift of 280 meters >75% of Xishuangbanna shifting to a different zone
Potential Impacts on Efficacy of Protected Area Network
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From Data to Dialog - Evidence-based Informed Decision-Making for Adaptation
Asian Highlands Knowledge Platform Interactive Information Flow Community-Based Empowerment
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www.asianhighlands.org