dr. anwar abu-zarifa - الصفحات...

54
1 Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa Assistant Professor Room No. B234 ،Tel. Ext. 2862 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://site.iugaza.edu.ps/abuzarifa

Upload: ngokhanh

Post on 17-Sep-2018

216 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

1

Dr. Anwar Abu-ZarifaAssistant ProfessorRoom No. B234 ،Tel. Ext. 2862E-mail: [email protected]: http://site.iugaza.edu.ps/abuzarifa

Page 2: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa . Islamic University Gaza . Department of Industrial Engineering

Syllabus Lectures: 2 sessions / week, 1.5 hours / session Text Book: Energy Systems Engineering: Evaluation and Implementation.

Vanek, Francis M., and Albright, Louis. D. ©2008, McGraw‐Hill.2014 edition ADDITIONAL LEARNING RESOURCES:

Alternative Energy: Political, Economic, and Social Feasibility; Christopher A.Simon; Rowman &Littlefield, London, UK: 2006. ISBN‐13: 978‐0742549098

Energy Systems and Sustainability; Godfrey Boyle, Bob Everett , Janet RamageEds.; Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK: 2003. ISBN‐13: 978‐0199261796

Energy Science: Principles, Technologies, and Impacts; John Andrews and NickJelley; Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK: 2007. ISBN‐13: 978‐0199281121

Sustainable Energy: Choosing Among Options by Jefferson W. Tester, ElisabethM. Drake, Michael J. Driscoll, Michael W. Golay, William A. Peters; MIT Press,Cambridge

Sustainable Energy ‐ Without the Hot Air; David JC MacKay; UIT CambridgeLtd., Cambridge.

Grading: Presentation &Written Report 20% Midterm 30% Final exam 50%

2

Page 3: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa . Islamic University Gaza . Department of Industrial Engineering

Course DescriptionThis course will provide an overview of the issues surrounding the energysystems we currently use or may use at a larger scale in the future to powerour industrial society. The course objective is to equip students with anunderstanding of the fundamentals of energy conversion, focusing on thephysic‐chemical principles underlying the specific technologies and onapplication of these principles to practical analysis of energy systems,followed by a survey of operational principles of conventional andrenewable energy systems. As appropriate, the economic and societalissues surrounding the adoption of new alternative energy technologies orexpansion of the current conventional approaches will be discussed.

Our hope is that this course will give you enough background to approachthe subject of energy conversion with a broad and functional scientificfoundation for intelligent evaluation of these systems.

3

Page 4: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa . Islamic University Gaza . Department of Industrial Engineering

Approximate course outline: Course Introduction Forms of Energy, Energy and Power, Units, Energy/Power Supply and

Demand, Energy and Societal Development, Climate Change andEnergy

Generating Electricity in Conventional Fossil Energy Systems and BriefReview of Relevant .

Where Does the Energy Come From?, How Does Conversion Occur?,the Carnot Limit, Rankine, Brayton and Combined Cycles, CombinedHeat and Power, Emissions and Emissions Controls, ElectricGenerators, Transmission and Distribution.

Electricity From Low Carbon Sources: Hydroelectric, Wind (andNuclear?)

Brief Overview of Nuclear Generation (Current and Next GenerationNuclear Reactors)

Hydroelectric Generation. Solar Energy Wind Energy.

4

Page 5: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa . Islamic University Gaza . Department of Industrial Engineering 5

المصادر و التكنولوجيا و المجتمع: مدخل الى الطاقة :المؤلف

مؤلف(بيتر ز غروسمان):: مؤلف(كاسيديادوارد س محمد):: مترجم(الدملوجيصباح صديق ):: ثاني

)مراجع(الشيخليعبدالستار قاعة الكتب العربية-المكتبة المركزية-غزة: مكان وجوده

: رقم العنوان 2011المنظمة العربية للترجمة ):لبنان ( بيروت : النشر112697333.79: التصنيف

مدخل الى الطاقة المستدامة: شحن مستقبلنا بالطاقة لفيص):: مؤلف(ايفانز. روبرت ل):: مراجع(رشيدي ابراھيم: المؤلفبيةقاعة الكتب العر-المكتبة المركزية-غزة: مكان وجوده) مترجم(حردان: رقم العنوان 2011المنظمة العربية للترجمة ):لبنان ( بيروت : النشر

112769333.79: التصنيف

الطاقة النظيفة:مكان وجوده) مؤلف(جيفرسديفيد : المؤلفقاعة المراجع العربية-المكتبة المركزية-غزة

قاعة-المكتبة المركزية-غزة:: طالبات/ طالب/ المراجع العربية

رقم 2008دار الفاروق لالستثمارات الثقافية ):مصر ( القاھرة: النشر107950: العنوان333.79: التصنيف

اخر المستجدات: اقتصاد الطاقة النووية قاعة -المكتبة المركزية-غزة: مكان وجوده) مؤلف(ستيف توماس: المؤلف

الكتب العربيةرقم 2011بل االلمانية ھنرشمؤسسة ):فلسطين ( رام : النشر112267: العنوان333.7924: التصنيف

renewable energyقاعة الكتب االجنبية -المكتبة المركزية-غزة: مكان وجوده) محرر

(godfrey boyle المؤلف :power plants : types and characteristics : an economic evaluation of the proposedpower plant in the gaza strippalestinian ھيئة energy research centre(board : المؤلف30250 gaza strip:  1995: النشرoptimizing energy efficiencies in industry(gg rajan المؤلف :

boston: mcgraw 93569: رقم العنوان ‐ hill  : النشر2003guide to energy managementا

)غزة مؤلف -الجامعة اإلسالمية -المكتبة المركزية waynec. turner ::(  )مؤلف barney l. capehart المؤلف :

قاعة الكتب -المكتبة المركزية-غزة: مكان وجوده) مؤلف ثالث)االجنبية william j. kennedy ثاني )::

th 93558: رقم العنوان 6 ed. lilburn:thefairmont press  2008: النشر

621.042: التصنيفfundamentals of renewable energy processes(aldo vieira da rosa المؤلف :amsterdam:elsevier limited  2005: النشرfundamentals of renewable energy processes ,energy technology nonconventionalمؤلفrenewable and conventional(s. rao ::(  )مؤلف ثاني b.b. parulekar المؤلف :

621.042 53136: رقم العنوانenergy supply ‐ demand integrations to the year 2000(paul s. basile المؤلف :

Page 6: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Chapter 1

6

Fossil Fuel Resources

Page 7: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

7

ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN GAZA

Page 8: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

8

Gaza Strip is 360 km with a high density population of about 4,118 people / km2, so Gaza Strip represents one of the most densely populated areas in the World. 

Population in Gaza Strip increases (population growth rate 2.7 % year).

Total energy consumption in the Palestinian Territories is the lowest in the region and costs more than anywhere else in the Middle East. 

The people in Gaza get only 0.17 kWh energy‐shares per capita, in comparison to Israel 6356 kWh per capita.

Page 9: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

9

Gaza electricity crisis Currently, Gaza Strip’s needs range between 300 and 350 

megawatts (MW). In Gaza, the power supply comes from three sources, Israel,

Egypt and generated by its own Gaza power plant (GPP). Israel provides 120 MW, Egypt 22 MW and GPP 50 MW In June 2006, Gaza only power plant was destroyed. The plant

was capable of producing up to 140 MW. The power plant wasfully dependent on fuel supplies from Israel.

The deficit means power cuts have been a feature of daily lifefor several years, but the recent crisis has increased theirlength and frequency.

Page 10: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

10

Gaza electricity crisisIn Gaza, the power supply comes from three

sources, Israel, Egypt and generated by its own

Gaza power plant (GPP). Currently, the Gaza

Strip’s needs range 350 megawatts (MW), of

which at least 42 % is purchased from Israel,

distributed in separate feeder lines along the

Gaza Strip, and 6-7 % is purchased from Egypt,

distributed mainly to the Rafah area.

Page 11: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

11various electricity suppliers with its related shares in Gaza between 2005 and 2012

Page 12: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

12

The total amounts (100%) of fossil fuels consumed in the Gaza Strip are imported.  Gaza is completely dependent on Israel for all its supplies of fuel. Fuel enters Gaza via underground pipelines which cross the Israel‐Gaza border at Nahal Oz. The fuel comes in four types:

Industrial gasoline ‐ exclusively for Gaza’s power plant for the production of electricity.

Gasoline ‐ for vehicles. Diesel ‐ for vehicles and back‐up generators which are vital during Gaza’s frequent electricity cuts.

Cooking gas  The power plant was fully dependent on fuel supplies from Israel. The plant needs 3,300,000 liters  of fuel per week to produce 78MW 

Page 13: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

13

Petrol and Diesel Supplies into Gaza

Page 14: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

14

Gaza electricity crisisImpact Power cuts affect every aspect of civilian life. Power cuts mean that hospitals have to suspend operation.

Gaza water authority (CMWU) cannot pump and distribute drinking water, nor unable to treat sewage.

Increasing pressure on the delivery of basic services in health, education, water and sanitation to growing Palestinian population.

Page 15: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

15

Potential of Solar Energy in Gaza Gaza Strip is in the average of overall potential of Supra‐region Africa. According to NASA, Gaza Strip receives high radiation levels about 5.5 

kWh/m2 per day annually. 

Page 16: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

16

Potential of Solar Energy in Gaza The total annual sunshine is approximately 3400 h. These are excellent conditions for harnessing solar energy for both large‐scale and stand‐alone applications.

According to the NASA, Gaza Strip receives high radiation levels ca. 5.5 kWh/m2 per day annually 

A Solar Thermal Power plant could supply entire Gaza Strip with electricity (230MW*24h*365d) on an area of only 3km2

Page 17: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

17

Applications of Solar Energy in Gaza

Around 70% of households in Gaza has solar energy heaters

This can produce 940 GWh per year and saves 85 M€ yearly The corresponding avoided emissions of CO2 are evaluated at

650,000 tons per year

Page 18: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

18

By the end of 2011, total global solar water and heating capacity reached an estimated 232 GWth.In the Middle East, an estimated 70% of Palestinian households rely on solar thermal for water heating (1.6 % of Global Solar Water heating).

Page 19: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

19

Solar powered Hospital

Shifa hospital in Gaza City, solar powerd ICU with 5 kW

Page 20: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

20

Wind Energy in Gaza Strip Wind is an abundant and powerful source of energy that is available consistently. Wind resources vary with location, but in certain areas, wind power can be more economical than solar power – even in Gaza Strip.

e80m Long‐term Mean Wind Speed in Palestine

Page 21: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

21

Wind Energy in Gaza Strip Average of Wind Speed measured in Gaza, 2012

123456789101112Average m/s 4.894.904.773.403.583.353.403.403.482.913.333.66Strongest m/s 1218141211878871013

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

wind sp

eed m/s

Page 22: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

22

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14N

NNW

NW

WNW

W

WSW

SW

SSW

S

SSE

SE

ESE

E

ENE

NE

NNE

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Wind Direction distribution in the Gaza strip, 2012

Wind Energy in Gaza Strip

Page 23: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

23

The wind resource assessment ends up with identifying sites with higher potential that are situated in four selected sites, North of Palestine/Israel, North of West‐bank, Jerusalem, and Eilat, the higher potential was in Eilat area bearing mean wind speed of 9.88m/s at 80 m hub height. 

Gaza area is poor wind energy, , compared to other areas in the country.

But it's worth a try to install small wind turbines. The high density of buildings and the scarcity of open and empty lands in the Gaza Strip obviate the possibility of building wind farms there.

In Gaza, there is no single profitable wind turbine, at the IUG a 1kw wind turbine is currently installed as a pilot project.

Wind Energy in Gaza Strip

Page 24: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

24

Waste‐to‐energy The daily solid waste generation across Gaza is more than 1450 tons (ca. 1.0 kg per capita). 

Nearly 65% of this waste is estimated to be organic, implying real opportunities for waste disposal schemes that emphasize recycling.

Most of the collected solid waste in the GS is disposed of in three main disposal sites; Johr al Deek Landfill east of Gaza City, Sofa Landfill east of Rafah City, and Deir El BalahLandfill in the Middle Area of GS. 

Because a high proportion of the waste is organic, it may be environmentally preferable to incinerate solid waste.

The Biogas potential in Palestine is over than 33 million m3. Biomass (wood and agricultural waste) is traditionally used for cooking and heating in rural areas.

Page 25: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

UNITS

Page 26: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

26

Energy vs. Power Energy:  “capacity to do work”

Work:  “quantity of energy transferred by system to another”

Power:  “rate at which energy is converted or work is performed”

Page 27: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

27

Energy: • Integration of power over time,• Energy is what people really want 

from a power system,• How much work you accomplish 

over time.

Power: • Instantaneous rate 

of consumption of energy,

• How hard you work

Page 28: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

28

Page 29: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

29

Energy Energy: 

Integration of power over time, Energy is what people really want from a power system, How much work you accomplish over time.

Energy Units:Joule =  1 watt‐second (J)kWh – kilowatthour (3.6 x 106 J)

U.S. annual electric energy consumption is about 3600 billion kWh (about 13,333 kWh per person, which means on average we each use 1.5 kW of power continuously).

Page 30: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

30

Power Power: 

– Instantaneous rate of consumption of energy,– How hard you work!

• Power = voltage x current for dc  Power Units:

Watts  =    amps times volts (W)Watt (W):  1 J.s‐1 = 1N.m.s‐1 = 1 kg.m2.s‐2

kW  – 1 x 103 WattMW  – 1 x 106 WattGW – 1 x 109 Watt

Installed U.S. generation capacity is about 1000 GW ( about 3 kW per person)

Page 31: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

31

Other customary units, Energy Calorie (cal):  energy required to heat 1g water by 1oC 

(=4.184J, we’ll probably never see cals in this course) 

Kilowatt.hour (kWh) = 1 kW x 3,600s = 3.6 MJ  (when discussing energy systems we may use kWh a lot) (while we’re at it, what is a watt per hour?)

British Thermal Unit (BTU): energy required to heat 1 lb water by 1oF  (=1,055 J, depending on Cp of water…) 1 MBtu=0.292 MWh lb: pound which is legally defined as exactly 0.45359237 Kilograms F: Fahrenheit to Celsius : (°F − 32) ÷ 1.8 =°C

MBTU = 1,000 BTU

Page 32: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

32

Placing things in perspective:  energy 1J = energy stored in capacitor for flash of cheap camera

1kJ = using a 10W flashlight for 1.5 minutes

6GJ = 1barrel of oil equivalent 

0.3 TJ= Average US electricity use in 1 year

100EJ = 100Quads = approximate US energy consumption in one yearToo large to understand:  that is 325GJ/person or 90,000 kWh/person

440 EJ = World energy consumption in one yearOr 65 GJ/person, or 18,000 kWh/person

*E: Exa = 10-18

Page 33: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

33

Placing things in perspective:  power 1W = human heart

100W = light bulb (how much of that is heat?)

1kW = draft horse 

100kW = automobile

2.5 MW = large wind turbine (ca. 50m radius rotor)

250 MW = Boeing 747 at cruise

1GW = coal fired power plant

13.5 TW = World average power generation

Page 34: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

34

Page 35: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

WORLD ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK TO 2030

Page 36: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

World Primary Energy Demand

Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030

Oil

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear powerHydro power

Other renewables

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

Page 37: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region

Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside the OECD

3%12%

85%

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1971-2002 2002-2030

Mto

e

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

31%

10%

59%

share of total increase (%)

* The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

Page 38: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030

Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries

By 2030, per capita primary energy consumption averages a mere 1.2 toe in developing regions, compared with 5.4 toe in the OECD and 4.7 toe in the transition economies. 

Page 39: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Map of Global Energy Poverty

Millions of People Without Electricity

Millions of People Relying on Biomass

28 20

509 530

56 96

815

221 332

801

18 570

1.6 billion people have no access to electricity, 80% of them in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Page 40: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s

World Energy‐Related CO2 Emissions

Page 41: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

CO2 Emissions by Sector,1990‐2030

CO2 emissions in power generation and transport are expected to increase the most

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1990 2002 2010 2020 2030

mill

ion

tonn

es o

f CO

2

Power Generation Other Transformation Industry Transport Other Sectors

Page 42: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Growth in World Energy Demandand CO2 Emissions

Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1971-2002 2002-2030

aver

age

annu

al g

row

th ra

te

Primary energy demand CO2 Emissions

Page 43: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

43

Page 44: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

World Alternative Policy Scenario 

Analyses impact of new environmental & energy‐security policies worldwide OECD: Policies currently under consideration  Non‐OECD: Also includes more rapid declines in energy 

intensity resulting from faster deployment of more‐efficient technology

Impact on energy, CO2 emissions & investment needs Basic macroeconomic & population assumptions as for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change

‐ Current Policies Scenario: A scenario in theWorld Energy Outlook 2010 that assumes no changes in policies from the mid‐point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario).

The WEO has also developed an alternative scenario that puts the global energy systems on a trajectory to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions in line with limiting the increase in temperature to 2°C.

Page 45: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

45

Overall results from the Kyoto Protocol suggest

Page 46: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Net Natural Gas Imports, 2030

Net gas imports are lower in all major importing regions, except China

0

200

400

600

OECD NorthAmerica

OECD Europe OECD Asia China

bcm

Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario

* Billion cubic metres of natural gas (abbreviated: bcm)

Page 47: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Scenarios

OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 – 25% higher than in 1990

Alternative Scenario

11 000

12 000

13 000

14 000

15 000

16 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

Reference Scenario

Page 48: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002‐2030

Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

49%

10%

21%

12%

8%

OECD

63%

1%

21%

15%

Transition economies

67%

7%

17%

5%4%

Developing countries

58%

World

End-use efficiency gains

7%

Fuel switching in end uses

20%

Increased renewables in power generation

10%

Increased nuclear in power generation

5%

Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation

Page 49: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

49

Correlation between Energy Use and Wealth The most commonly used measure of wealth in present use is the

gross domestic product, or GDP, which is the sum of the monetaryvalue of all goods and services produced in a country in a given year.

Though other factors play a role, the wealth of a country measuredin terms of GDP per capita is to a fair extent correlated with theenergy use per capita of that country.

Plotting these countries’ GDP per capita as a function of energy useper capita (see Fig. 1‐2) shows that GDP per capita rises with energyper capita.

Countries such as Russia and Bahrain, which may fall outside thecurve due to their status as major oil producers or due to extremeclimates.

(Germany, Australia, Japan, Canada, and the United States), there isa wide variation in energy use per capita, with Canadian citizensusing on average more than twice as much energy as those of Japanor Germany.

Page 50: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

50

Page 51: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

51

Page 52: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

52

Human Development Index and Energy Human Development Index (The HDI is measured on ascale from 0 (worst) to 1 (best))*.

Plotting HDI as a function of energy use per capita (seeFig. 1‐3) shows that countries with high HDI values havehigher values of energy use per capita than those with alow value.

For example, Zimbabwe, with a life expectancy of 38years and an HDI value of 0.491, has an energy per capitavalue of 2.2 × 1010 J/capita or 21.0 million BTU/capita,whereas for Canada, the corresponding values are 0.950,4.7 × 1011, and 442

* the United Nations has since the early 1990s tracked the value of the human development index (HDI).

Page 53: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

53

Page 54: Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa - الصفحات الشخصيةsite.iugaza.edu.ps/aabuzarifa/files/ES20152_Ch1.pdf · Dr. Anwar Abu-Zarifa ... The deficit means power cuts have been a feature

Summary & Conclusions  On current policies, world energy needs – and CO2 emissions – will be 60% higher in 2030 than now

Policies under consideration & faster deployment of technology could substantially save energy and reduce emissions 

Larger capital needs on the demand side would be entirely offset by lower investment needs on the supply side 

Truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment

Urgent & decisive government action is needed