dr. denis onieal the leadership challenge: what’s next??? it’s not your mother’s fire...
TRANSCRIPT
Dr. Denis Onieal
The Leadership Challenge:What’s Next???
It’s not your mother’s fire department anymore
Metropolitan Fire ChiefsLouisville KY
May 2012
Dr. Denis Onieal
Future Success as a Fire Department
Is solely dependent upon your preparation for tomorrow; yesterday’s war stories won’t cut it. It isn’t “yesterday” anymore.
Experience alone will not help you; many of the things that you will face have never been faced by anyone before.
The rate of change is accelerating at a pace that is almost impossible to maintain.
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Music
Publishing
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Newspapers
Colleges and
Universities
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Photographs
Handwritten Letters
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Dictatorshipsaround the
World
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How can anyone imagine that the fire and
emergency services will be immune?
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When the environment changed……
Alligators changed and adapted….
Dinosaurs didn’t
Who’s still around????
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The Seeds of Destruction… mid-1970s, who invented several solid-state image sensors that
"converted light to digital pictures"
1987 – who released seven products for recording, storing, manipulating, transmitting and printing electronic images
1990 – who developed the Photo CD and the first worldwide standard for defining the digital environment for computers and computer peripherals
In 1991, who released the first professional digital camera system
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…are sometimes in your own organization
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Barriers to Change: The Real Reason Behind the Kodak Downfall
The Kodak problem, on the surface, is that it did not move into the digital world well enough and fast enough.
What no one seems to do is go back and ask: Why did Kodak make the poor strategic decisions they made?
As Kodak became more and more successful, complacency grew
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Any Questions???
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY
Did You Know?
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SociologicalThe Baby Boomers!!!
Born between 1946 – 1964 – 92% of all women who could have children in those years, did. A baby was born every 8 seconds for 18 straight years. (…and we thought we invented sex…)
Average life expectancy for boomers right now is 82.5 years and that will grow! It will be 85.
NYT – 3/27/2007
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Sociological
Baby Boomers
More Med callsHigher fire riskIncreased issues of people being incapable of self care
Moving back into cities to be closer to health care
Senior to grave housing
These people know how to push the political “buttons.”
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Japan’s Age Distribution:
2007 – 21% age 65 and over
2009 – 22.2% age 65 and over
2010 – 22.6% age 65 and over
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Japan’s
Population
Is
Aging….
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FIRE DEATH RATE BY COUNTRY(2005-07)
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US
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FIRE DEATH RATE BY COUNTRYPercent of Decrease From 1979 to 2007
USJapan
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Building Construction Methods and Materials for the Fire Service
Michael Smith, EFO
Technological
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Technological
8K BTU vs 18K BTU heat release
Rooms of “solid gasoline”
All in room furnishings, trim, arches, windows, carpet are now plastic
Increased changes to building structures / occupancy
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All Plastic furnishing – not 8K BTU per pound but 16-18K BTU per pound
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Columns are plastic
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Light Weight Steel – early failure
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Building renovation – flat to peaked roof (rain problems)
Truss supported roof
Joist supported roofOld Building
New Roof
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All Joints Are Glued
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What are modifications to buildings for energy conservation doing to their structural integrity?
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How well will the rural fire service handle ethanol fires and haz-mat transportation
incidents?
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Connected FutureGary Grube
Motorola Senior Fellow
Mobile phones : 25 sold per second
World population :4 births per second
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Presume you are on camera – the average American citizen is videotaped 15 times per day (ATM, Bank, 7-11, street cameras, store security)
If you or members of your department do anything that can be interpreted as controversial or wrong, presume it will be on You-Tube within hours.
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These stories were cut from USA Today – 4/10/08. Notice that they appeared together in the same newspaper on the same day.
5,000 Surveillance Cameras
30 Surveillance Cameras on Delaware highways
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But today’s spring breakers …say they have been tamed, not by parents or colleges or the fed-up cities they invade, but by the hand-held gizmos they hold dearest and the fear of being betrayed by an unsavory, unsanctioned photo or video popping up on Facebook or YouTube.
Spring Break Gets “Tamer” as World Watches Online (NYT 3/16/2012)
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If you don’t realize that everything you do in public or in public places is on video, you don’t have a grasp of reality!!!
Where do you think Billy Goldfeder gets all that stuff??
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You’re on the witness stand
You’re the Chief Officer in charge of the following events.
In each event, someone is seriously injured or killed.
Defend yourself
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFdDW9aE6-A
Milford CT PD returning from a neighbor community assist in June 2009
The four second CEM
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What Can You Expect?
Expect that next generation has always been different
Expect rapid communication and learning
Expect that as a result of a number of incidents, the fire service will find itself in the same position as Law Enforcement – you will be sued for the mis, mals, and nons.
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S.C. POST AND COURIER, 3/14/2010: A team of State Law Enforcement Division agents is reviewing records from the Sofa Super Store blaze for signs of criminal negligence on the part of commanders who oversaw the attack on the inferno in which nine firemen died, authorities said.
Ninth Circuit Solicitor Scarlett Wilson requested the review after meeting with relatives of two firefighters who died in the June 18, 2007, inferno. Family members gave Wilson eight binders of materials they say prove that commanders exposed fire crews to unnecessary and deadly risks with insufficient training and leadership.
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Waiting for the other shoe
To Drop
Assessed Property
Value
2013
20??
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Municipal Tax Base
• The economy is reducing State and municipal governments revenue because of abandoned housing - diminished property tax revenues.
• Housing prices have been dropping for several years, but the assessed value of property in many cases has not reflected the drop in market value.
• As property owners realize their market values are lower, they will demand re-assessment to lower assessed values.
•Diminished assessed value = diminished tax revenue
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The Perfect Storm
An increase in:
• Demand for services by an ever increasing senior population
• Salary / benefits due to economy and workload
• Cost of service delivery
A decrease in:
• Tax revenue
• Volunteer base
• Career hiring / staffing
V
E
R
S
U
S
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Fire and Emergency Services
• No government / Fire and Emergency leaders today experienced this level of economic crunch
• Last serious economic downturn in 1970s – cities went bankrupt; FD layoffs and strikes
• Declining volunteers – increased service and training demands, fuel costs
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Training and Education
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The learning technologies will be available, the problem will be assessing and using the appropriate ones.
Be wary of the person who wants to teach everything by computer, or says s/he can.
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Students will be used to being responsible for their own learning.
We have not yet developed the processes by which we will assess their knowledge, skills and abilities.
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Learning Styles The human characteristics
associated with learning will not change. There will be more and varied ways for someone to learn – but we will all have our own “favorites.”
There will be an ever increasing need to validate that learning occurred. This validation will require performance measurements, not cognitive ones.
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Learning Styles The new learning and learning styles will require
new strategies: Collaborative learning requires increased
interpersonal skills. Those with poor interpersonal skills will be at a learning disadvantage.
There will be a greater inclination to try new and untested technologies without considering the learner. To someone with a computer – everything looks like a course.
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Learning Styles The instructor’s role will
change to include technology assessments, that is to say, which technology will best deliver this information.
The role will also require some old (and some new) techniques for assessment.
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The US Fire Administration
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The National Fire Academy Courses from 10 minutes to 10 days in length
Work with your State Fire Academy to deliver over 200 different courses in all subject areas
Work with colleges and universities to standardize 2, 4 and grad degrees
Trained 110,000 firefighters in all 50 States last year – in residence, in classrooms in every State, and on-line.
Training is low / no cost
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National Fire Programs
NFIRS Data and analysis (upcoming improvements!!)
Research and technical publications
Learning Resource Center – on line
Prevention and Public Education Exchange
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Which Future Fire Service are you going to Prepare?