du bao giao thong bang pm cube citilabs

8/9/2019 Du Bao Giao Thong Bang Pm Cube Citilabs

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

V THANH TUN_QG10 Trang 51


4.1. C s l thuyt

4.1.1 Nguyn tc d bo:

p ng mc ch, cc yu cu ca cng tc d bo khi lng vn ti

phc v cho cng tc quy hoch, vic d bo khi lng vn ti phi tun th cc

nguyn tc sau:

Tnh y : Ton b nhu cu vn chuyn hnh khch, hng ho trn tng

tuyn ng, tng loi phng thc vn ti n phn chia khu vc quy hoch thnh

nhng tiu vng theo tnh cht hng ho vn chuyn. Trong mi tiu vng: sn xut

v tiu th, ch i v ch n; nhu cu vn chuyn hnh khch i, n tng tiu

vng trong khu vc quy hoch.

Tnh tin cy cao: Mc chi tit, c c s khoa hc. Phn tch lung hng,

lung hnh khch hin ti n quy lut din bin. Phng php trc tip tnh ton,

ti liu bo co thng k, ti liu quy hoch pht trin ca ngnh. D bo khi

lng vn chuyn hng ho: d bo sn xut v tiu th ca cc c s sn xut, cccm dn c n d bo nhu cu vn chuyn.

Nguyn tc lin h bin chng: Tnh h thng, nhng nhn t nh hng

ng thi: xem xt chng trong mi lin h ca cc i tng xung quanh, d bo

khi lng hng ho v hnh khch vn chuyn cho tng phng thc vn ti n

cc quy lut gi tr, quy lut cnh tranh, quy lut cung cu nhng chnh sch iu

tit nn kinh t ca Nh nc. Nhng nhn t nh hng n s la chn phng

thc vn ti tron iu kin hin nay l: Thi gian vn chuyn, chi ph vn chuyn,

mc tin cy, mc c ng v an ton trong vn chuyn, cht lng phc v,

ngoi ra cn phi k n tm l v thi quen ca ngi s dng.

Nguyn tc k tha: Trc khi d bo cn tin hnh iu tra kinh t, lng

hng vn chuyn qu kh, hin ti tm ra quy lut din bin khi lng vn chuyn.

Da vo quy lut din bin ca thi k qu kh v cc yu t tc ng n khi


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lng vn chuyn d on ra quy lut din bin ca thi k tng lai tin hnh

d bo khi lng vn chuyn tng lai.

Nguyn tc c th v bn cht ca i tng: Xem xt n nhng nt

ring bit, c th ring s to ra nhng gii hn nht nh xu hng din bin ca

i tng d bo trong tng lai. Nh d bo nhu cu i li ca dn c trong khu

vc cn phi xt n: thnh phn dn c, la tui, ngh nghip, trnh vn ho,

mc thu nhp ...nh hng rt nhiu n s ln i li bnh qun, nhu cu s dng

phng tin vn ti v cht lng phc v vn ti.

4.1.2 Cc m hnh d bo

M hnh n hi: Phng php ny da trn lin h gia t l tng trng

ca mt bin s ( giao thng,..) vi t l tng trng ca mt bin khc ( GDP,..)

da trn nhng gi thit tng i tin cy. H s n hi c dng:

Phng php m hnh n hi tng qut:

y giao thng = c + m1 * x1 + m2 * x2 + m3 * x3 ... Sp s c :

y giao thng = x1 * m1 + x2 * m2 + x3 * m3 ... (+ x1 * x2 *

x3 )

x1, x2 , x3 cc nhn t: GDP, dn c th, dn c nng thn

m1, m2 , m3 cc h s n hi ca giao thng so vi GDP, dn c

th, dn c nng thn

D bo theo Phng php xu hng:

Bc 1: Da trn s liu thng k thu thp c tm quy lut din bin v

khi lng vn chuyn ca thi k va qua, bng cc phng php tnh ton...Bc 2: Phn tch so snh nhng c im v vn chuyn, tnh hnh pht

trin kinh t x hi trong khu vc tc ng n s bin ng khi lng vn

chuyn i, (hoc n) tng lai d on ra quy lut din bin v khi lng vn

chuyn i, n tng lai.


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Bc 3: Da vo quy lut din bin v nhu cu vn chuyn i, n khu vc

thi k tng lai tnh ton d bo ra khi lng vn chuyn i, n nhng nm

tng lai (nm d bo).

Cc phng php thng k xu hng thng c s dng trong d bo

nhu cu vn chuyn:

Phng php th pht trin

Phng php phn tch tc tng trng

Phng php ng hi quy xu hng

Phng php chuyn gia: Ly kin chuyn gia trong lnh vc chuyn

ngnh & phn tch, tng hp cc kin ny c c d bo cn thit. Trnh t

tin hnh:

1. Xc nh mc ch, nhim v, ni dung v i tng d bo.

2. Tp hp nhm chuyn gia t tiu chun quy m v c cu: nn chn 10-

25 ngi mc thng tin...

3. Son tho, cung cp h thng cu hi, cung cp thng tin c lin quan:

bn khu vc, cc thng tin kinh t x hi lin quan c c s php l, c skhoa hc nht nh. Trc tip gp v ly kin, vd: amax v amin

4. Thu thp, x l v phn tch thng k cc cu tr li: X l s liu thng

k, xc sut, kim nh cc gi thit thng k...

5. Thng tin ngc cho tp th chuyn gia v kt qu x l vng mt. nh

hng & cung cp tip cc thng tin c lin quan

6. Tng hp x l tip cc cu tr li theo tiu chun xc xut thng k.

nh gi phn tn.

7. Kt lun d bo nu nht tr cao, (chuyn lp li nu cn tn mn)

4.1.3 M hnh d bo nhu cu giao thng 4 bc

M hnh phn tch nhu cu i li u tin pht trin vo nhng nm 1950

nh l mt cng c tin tin ca quy hoch giao thng.


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Phn tch, d bo nhu cu i li c s dng pht trin thng tin tr

gip vic ra quyt nh pht trin v qun l h thng giao thng, c bit l giao

thng th.

Quy trnh ny bao gm bn bc:

1. Pht sinh hnh trnh (Trip generation Hnh trnh xut pht u?)

2. Phn phi hnh trnh, (Trip distribution - Hnh trnh i n u)

3. Phng thc phn chia (Modal split Loi m hnh no c s dng,

phng tin giao thng c nhn hoc phng tin giao thng cng cng).

4. n nh mng li (Traffic assignment Tuyn ng no c s dng

vi mi loi m hnh).

Hnh 4.1 Quy trnh, d bo phn tch nhu cu i li theo m hnh 4 bc

Quy trnh bn bc ny s dng nhng m hnh ton hc c lp khc nhau

cho mi hp phn ca quy trnh. Kt qu ca bc ny thng l d liu u vo

gii quyt cc bc tip theo.Sau y trnh by tng bc c th:

Bc 1. Pht sinh hnh trnh (Trip generation)

M hnh pht sinh hnh trnh d bo v xc nh s lng lt i li xut

pht trong vng phn tch (mc tng th), lt i li ca h gia nh (mc c

th) hoc nhng nhm tng ng.

Mc ch ca bc ny nhm xc nh s chuyn i pht sinh ca tng

vng trong khu vc nghin cu. S chuyn i ca tng vng ph thuc vo c


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im s dng t v cc c im kinh t x hi ca ngi s dng giao thng cng

nh cc yu t khc c lin quan n giao thng vn ti.

Trip Generation: Phn loi theo lc ch chuyn i gm 2 loi chnh l HB

(Home Based) v NHB (Non_Home Based).

Trong HB phn theo nhng loi sau:

Chuyn i cng vic ( gia Nh v Ni lm vic)

Chuyn i nh v trng hc ( bao gm c trng i hc, Cao ng,..)

Mua sm

X hi v gii tr

Chuyn i a n

Chuyn i khc

Vi 2 chuyn i u ( Chuyn i vi mc ch cng vic gia Nh v Ni

lm vic, chuyn i gia Nh v Trng hc) l chuyn i bt buc trong phn tch

chuyn i. Chuyn i cui cng (Chuyn i khc) t c la chn hn: i bnh

vin, i khm bnh, chuyn i lm nhng khng n ni lm vic. Ty thuc vo

c im ca khu vc, vn ha v x hi c th nh hng n vic phn chiachuyn i.

Chuyn i NHB c th chia bng hai loi chnh: i cng vic v khc. i

cng vic t cng ty n cng ty. Cc chuyn i ny u khng lin quan n Nh.

Cc yu t nh hng n pht sinh chuyn i:

Pht sinh chuyn i c nhn (Productions): Nhng yu t chnh nh hng

n pht sinh chuyn i nh:

S hu xe t v xe my

Quy m h gia nh

Kch c h gia nh

Tnh cht khu vc(KCN,KDC)

Mt c tr

Kh nng tip cn


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Vi 4 yu t u c xem xt, nghin cu trong cc nghin cu v pht

sinh chuyn i h gia nh, trong khi cc yu t khc lin quan n cc nghin cu

pht sinh chuyn i ca khu vc, yu t cui t c dng.

Thu ht chuyn i c nhn ( Attractions)

Yu t lin quan, quan trng nht l din tch cc KCN, khu vui

chiNgoi ra cn 1 s yu t khc cng nh hng.

Hnh 4.2 nh ngha chuyn i theo mc ch

Hnh 4.3 Pht sinh v hp dn hnh trnh


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Ngun: Bi ging ca Cube Citilas

Hai phng php truyn thng l phn tch phn loi cho v phn tch hi

quy. Trong n ny s dng phng php hi quy tnh ton.

Phng php phn tch hi qui (Regression analysis):

Phn tch hi qui l phng php thng k m gi tr trung bnh (mean) ca

mt hay nhiu bin ngu nhin l c d on da vo iu kin ca cc bin

ngu nhin ( tnh ton) khc. C th, c hi qui tuyn tnh, hi qui lgic, hi qui

Poisson v hc c gim st. Phn tch hi qui khng ch l trng khp ng cong

(la chn mt ng cong m va khp nht vi mt tp im d liu); n cn phi

trng khp vi mt m hnh vi cc thnh phn ngu nhin v xc nh

(deterministic and stochastic components). Thnh phn xc nh c gi l b d

on (predictor) v thnh phn ngu nhin c gi l phn sai s (error term).

Mt hm hi quy tng qut nh sau:

Yi = ai + 1X1 + 2X2 + + nXn + i

Trong :

Yi l s hnh trnh pht sinh ra trong vng i.ail s thc.

1. n l h s hi quy.

X1Xn l bin s ngu nhin (cc bin s i din cho mt yu t nh

hng n s lt i li v d nh dn s, h gia nh

il h s hiu chnh (s d).

Cc gi tr ao, 1, 2, k, i c xc nh bng phng php hi quy.

Bc 2. Phn phi hnh trnh (Trip distribution)

Sau khi d bo c nhu cu i li pht sinh ra trong vng phn tch, mc

tiu tip theo l phi xc nh c nhng hnh trnh ny i u trong s cc hnh

trnh xut pht t mt im i v n nhiu im n.


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Hnh 4.4 S phn phi hnh trnh

C ba yu nh hng ti s phn chia ny:

S lng hnh trnh pht sinh t im xut pht.

S hp dn ca vng n.

Tr khng (Chi ph, thi gian i li).

Phng php thng dng xc nh s phn phi hnh trnh l dng m

hnh phn phi hp dn (Gravity mode), phng php ny xc nh r s hnh trnh

i li gia im xut pht v im n nh l mt hm s v thuc tnh i v n

(thuc tnh OD) v chi ph i li gia chng:

Trong :

Tij = Hnh trnh t vng i n vng j.

Pi = Tng s hnh trnh pht sinh t vng i.

Aj = S hnh trnh hp thu vo vng j.

Fij = H s tr khng, thng thng l hm s t l nghch vi thi gian di

chuyn gia i v j.

Kij = H s hiu chnh v mt kinh t x hi cho nhng hnh trnh xut

pht t i v n vng j, thng ly bng 1.

Ta bit Ps v As c xc nh c t qu trnh pht sinh hnh trnh,

tng hnh trnh pht sinh ra phi bng tng hnh trnh hp thu


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Pi = Aj.

Khi tng s hnh trnh hp thu cho mi vng khng bng tng s hnh trnh

hp thu ban u, ta cn iu chnh li nhn t hp thu. Ta phi tnh ton li nhn t

hp thu theo cng thc sau:

Trong :

Ajk = Nhn t hp thu hiu chnh cho vng hp thu (ct) j ln th k.

Ajk = Aj khi k=1

Cjk = Tng gi tr hp thu (ct) thc t cho vng j ln th k

Aj = tng s hp thu mong mun thuc vng hp thu (ct) j

j = s th t khu vc hp thu

n = s lng khu vc

k = s ln lp

Bc 3. Phn chia phng thc

Sau khi hon thnh cng tc phn phi hnh trnh, cng vic tip theo l

phi xc nh c phng thc i li bng phng tin no s c s dng. Giai

on ny d bo c bao nhiu ngi s dng phng tin giao thng cng cng v

bao nhiu ngi s dng phng tin giao thng c nhn. Phng php thng

thng nht c s dng l m hnh Logit.

Hnh 4.5 Phn chia phng thc


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bc th 3 ca d bo nhu cu giao thng s dng m hnh la chn

logit tnh ton. Trong Cube, m hnh n gin nht c s dng l m hnh

logit tuyt i.

M hnh la chn n gin ny chia tng nhu cu i li gia hai la chn

thay th, n c gi l m hnh Binary. iu ny c th c m rng bng cch

thm cc phng thc khc, do to thnh mt m hnh a thc.

y l mt v d n gin ca m hnh tng cu. Gi s rng trong mt h

thng giao thng ch c hai phng thc ri rc cnh tranh l Phng tin c nhn

(Car) v giao thng cng cng (PT) - gia mt tp hp cc im i v im n.

Ngi s dng mt h thng nh vy c gi l s la chn nh phn, bi v ch

c hai la chn thay th ( C nhn hoc PT).

Qu trnh ny bt u bng cch tnh ton chi ph tng qut gia a im i

v a im n bng cc phng thc. Thng thng, chi ph ny l s kt hp

tuyn tnh ca cc chi ph tin t (gi v, nhin liu, vv) v thi gian (i b, ch i,

trung chuyn, thi gian trong xe, vv). Cng c th s dng mt hng s ph gn

ng no ca cc yu t chi ph c th d dng xc nh c s lng, v d

nh s tin li ca dch v xe but, hoc cht lng xe chy trn ng. Gi chi phi li bng Phng tin c nhn l CCar v PT l Cpt. Gi s rng c mt nhu cu

tng l D v cuc hnh trnh trong mt thi gian nht nh. Theo m hnh Logit

tuyt i th xc sut ca vic la chn Phng tin c nhn (PCar )v PT (PPT )

c a ra bi cc phng trnh di y:


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Vi l tham s quy m

Cc d bo nhu cu xe hi( Dcar)v PT ( Dpt ) l:

Cc trng hp ca m hnh c xc nh bi mt hng s dng nh

tham s quy m, c gi l trong cc phng trnh trn. Biu di y cho

thy s nhy ca m hnh vi cc gi tr khc nhau ca .

Nu = 0 m hnh ny l hon ton khng nhy vi chi ph v nhu cu

c chia u gia mi la chn c sn. Ch rng Pcar= 1/2 v Ppt= 1/2 khi = 0.

Khi tng, nhy ca m hnh logit ny tng theo, dn dn phn b nhu cu nhiu

hn la chn vi chi ph thp hn. Con s "m hnh logit nhy" cho thy m

hnh tr nn nhy hn vi s khc bit v chi ph khi = 0,01, 0,02 v 0,04.

Cui cng, khi tin ti v cng, m hnh s phn b tt c cc nhu cu

thay th vi chi ph thp nht. Gi tr ca tham s quy m s ph thuc vo bn cht

ca s la chn, c trng nhu cu cc n v chi ph. V d:


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Hnh 4.6 nhy m hnh Logit

Ngun: Ti liu hng dn s dng CUBE ca Citilabs

Bc 4. n nh tuyn ng (Traffic assignment)

y l giai on cui cng sau khi xc nh phng thc phn chia, mcch l phi xc nh c tuyn ng no (cho mi phng thc) c s dng

cho nhng hnh trnh t im i n im n.

Hnh 4.7 Tuyn ng no s c la chn cho hnh trnh?

Qu trnh n nh tuyn ng bao gm s dng cc phng php sau:

Phng php 1: Tt c hoc khng c g.

Hu ht hnh trnh c ch nh cho nhng tuyn tuyn ng ngn nht.


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Hnh 4.8 Tt c hoc khng c g ( All or nothing)

Phng php 2: Phng php cn bng, phng php ny bao gm cc

bc sau:

1. p dng mt phng php 1 (tt c hoc khng c g).

2. Tnh ton thi gian hnh trnh mi (lin quan n lu lng v ch tc

giao thng)

3. Tnh ton li hnh trnh ngn nht vi s tng trng giao thng

4. Kim tra li tt c cc tuyn xem c thi gian i li l tng ng hay

khng, nu khng, lp li bc 1, ngc li, kt thc qu trnh.

4.1.4 p dng phn mm d bo Cube Citilab trong thc tin:

M hnh Cube Citilab c s dng rng ri nhiu nc trn th gii.

Nhng nm gn y, Vit Nam cng bt u ph bin phn mm ny, v dn dn

a phn mm ny vo ng dng thc t ti nhiu d n ln nh ca c nc. inhnh l cc d n ca cc tp on ln nh JICA, MVAc p dng Vit

Nam. Cc d n ln p dng Cube bao gm:

Giai on 3 ca HOUTRANS:

Trong giai on 3 ca nghin cu HOUTRANS nm 2004, Cube Citilab

c p dng m rng m hnh tnh ton. Trong bao gm phn chia chuyn

i theo mc ch, s hu phng tin c nhn, s hu phng tin gia nh Vi

vic phn chia nh m hnh s d dng nghin cu su cc yu t tc ng v nhm

iu chnh tng h s cho ph hp.


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Hnh 4.9 Giai on 3 ca HOUTRANS s dng CUBE/Voyager

Ngun: Bo co HOUTRANS

Tuyn Metro s 2:

Nm 2008, MVA s dng phn mn ny tnh ton lu lng hnh

khch v doanh thu Tuyn Metro s 2 thc hin cho Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (

ADB). Ngoi ra, bo co ny cng c tham kho tnh ton lu lng hnh

khch i metro ca Tuyn s 5.

Tuyn s 2 vi tng chiu di 13,3 km, trong 10,4 km i ngm v 2,9

km i trn cao. Xut pht t ga trung tm Bn Thnh, ng metro s i qua Ng

Su Ph ng, dc theo sut ng Cch mng Thng 8, tip ni theo ng

Trng Chinh v kt thc ti Bn xe An Sng. Vi gi nh cc tuyn Metro c


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hon thin th lu lng hnh khch i metro vo nm 2025 ca Tp H Ch Minh

nh sau:

Hnh 4.10 Lu lng hnh khch i Metro vo nm 2025

Ngun: D bo lu lng hnh khch v doanh thu Tuyn metro s 2- MVA

Ngoi ra m hnh d bo ca Cube Citilab cng ang c p dng trong

rt nhiu cc d n nh l khc. M hnh cng th hin tnh u vit so vi cc

phn mm d bo khc v tnh linh hot, ty bin v d s dng. Ty thuc vo

thut ton c p dng, m hnh c th thay i v c iu chnh a ra kt

qu ph hp nht.

4.2. D bo lu lng giao thng Qun 10- Tp. H Ch Minh

4.2.1 Cc bc tin hnh d bo.

4.2.1.1 Phn vng giao thng:

Vic xc nh phn vng giao thng c da trn nhiu cch thc nh:

Theo iu kin kinh t, c im dn c, ng ranh khu vc


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Phn vng giao thng trong khu vc nghin cu c chia thnh 2 khu vc:

khu vc ni vng (TAZ) v khu vc ngoi vng ( ExternalTAZ).

Bng 4.1 Khu vc ni vng ( TAZ )

TAZ Khu vc

Dn s HSSVLao

ng1 Phng 1 15121 1682 24512 Phng 2 v 3 24952 8017 48923 Phng 4 v 9 30991 9453 3246

4 Phng 5 v 8 22395 2417 64995 Phng 6 9243 2135 21826 Phng 7 7292 1672 16397 Phng 10 10138 1742 22308 Phng 11 11717 1839 21069 Phng 12 26239 7425 721610 Phng 13 21385 5631 716711 Phng 14 28269 8203 482112 Phng 15

30909 8304 6732

Hnh 4.11 Khu vc ni vng ( TAZ )


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Khu vc ngoi vng (ExternalTAZ) bao gm cc qun, huyn cn li trong

thnh ph H Ch Minh (gm 23 qun, huyn ngoi tr Qun 10). Khu vc ngoi

vng ny c chia thnh 4 Zone da trn cc hng tip cn ca chng theo cc

trc ng chnh ca khu vc. Hng Ty kt ni vo ng Cch Mng Thng

Tm, L Thng Kit. Hng Bc kt ni vo in Bin Ph, V Th Su, Nguyn

Th Minh Khai. Hng Nam kt ni vo ng Ba Thng Hai, Hng Bng. Hng

ng kt ni vo ng L Thng Kit, Nguyn Tri Phng, L Hng Phong, L

Thi T. Vic phn chia cc ExternalTAZ ch mang tch cht tng i theo klin

khch quan ca tc gi. Cc s liu v Tng s chuyn i pht sinh, thu ht ca mi

Qun c tn dng theo iu chnh Quy hoch tng th pht trin GTVT

Tp.HCM n nm 2020 v tm nhn sau nm 2020. Cc s liu ny s c s

dng cho cc bc tip theo trong m hnh d bo.

4.2.1.2 Xy dng v phc tho mng li ( Network & Highway )

a. Xy dng mng li ng (Network)

Mng li ng ni vng: c xy dng da vo d liu v cc tuyn

ng ni vng nh: Tn tuyn ng, im u, im cui, B rng ng, Kh

nng thng hnh, Vn tc lu thng.


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Hnh 4.13 Xy dng mng li ng ni vng

Hnh 4.14 Cc thuc tnh ca tuyn ng


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Bng 4.3 Cc thuc tnh ca tuyn ng khu vc Qun 10

Stt Tn ng im u im cuiMt

ngSln

Vn tctrungbnh

Lulng

(m) Ln1 Ba Thng Hai Cch Mng Thng Tm L Thng Kit 17 4 30 6,400

2 B Ht Ng Gia T Nguyn Kim 7 2 31 3,200

3 Bc HiCch Mng Thng Tm ng Nai 6 2 32 3,200ng Nai Sn 346 7 2 30 3,200Sn 346 L Thng Kit 19 6 32 6,400

4 Cch Mng Thng 8 Bc Hi Cng Trng Dn Ch 11 4 29 6400

5 Cao Thngin Bin Ph ng 3/2 10 3 33 4,800ng 3/2 Hong D Khng 11 3 35 4,800

6 o Duy T Nguyn Tri Phng L Thng Kit 8 2 32 3,2007 ng Nai T Hin Thnh Bc Hi 7 2 34 3,2008 H B Kin T Hin Thnh Trng Sn 8 2 31 3,200

9 Ha HoTrn Nhn Tn Ng Quyn 7 2 29 3,200Nguyn Kim L Thng Kit 7 2 28 3,200

10 L Hng Phong Hng Vng Hong D Khng 15 4 34 6,40011 L Thi T Hng Vng ng 3/2 18 4 33 6,40012 Ng Gia T Vng Xoay Ng 7 Nguyn Tri Phng 14 4 34 6,40013 Ng Quyn ng 3/2 Nguyn Ch Thanh 8 2 29 3,20014 Nguyn Duy Dng Nguyn Ch Thanh B Ht 8 2 30 3,20015 Nguyn Gin Thanh Bc Hi Sn JJ12C 10 3 31 4,800


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Sn JJ12C Cui ng 7 2 31 3,20016 Nguyn Kim Nguyn Ch Thanh ng 3/2 12 4 32 6,40017 Nguyn Tri Phng Ng Gia T ng 3/2 14 4 34 6,400

18 Nguyn Tiu Lang 3/2 Ha Ho 8 2 30 3,200o Duy T Nguyn Ch Thanh 8 2 30 3,200

19 Nht To Nguyn Tri Phng L Thng Kit 6 2 27 3,200

20 S Vn Hnh Nguyn Ch Thanh T Hin Thnh 10 3 28 4,80021 Tn Phc Ng Quyn L Thng Kit 9 3 31 4,800

22 Thnh Thing 3/2 T Hin Thnh 14 4 32 6,400T Hin Thnh Bc Hi 18 6 36 9,600

23 T Hin Thnh Cch Mng Thng 8 L Thng Kit 10 3 34 4,80024 Trn Bnh Trng Hng Vng Ch hoa H Th K 9 3 32 4,80025 Trn Minh Quyn ng 3/2 in Bin Ph 7 2 29 3,20026 Trn Nhn Tn Ng Gia T Hng Vng 8 2 29 3,200

27 Trng Snng Nai S HH3 9 3 33 4,800S HH3 Cch Mng Thng 8 11 3 33 4,800

28 Vnh Vin L Hng Phong L Thng Kit 6 2 28 3,20029 Vng Xoay Ng 7 L Thi T - L Hng Phong - Ng Gia T 21 -

30 in Bin Ph Vng Xoay Ng 7 Nguyn Thng Hin 15 3 34 4,80031 Hng Vng

Vng Xoay Ng 6 CngHa

Nguyn Ch Thanh 9 3 30 4,800

32 L Thng Kit Ba Thng Hai Bc Hi 15 4 29 6,40033 Nguyn Ch Thanh Hng Vng L Thng Kit 10 3 30 4,800


22/77



Cc ng kt ni t tm TAZ: Gi nh t tm TAZ s kt ni vi cc

nt giao ct gn nht. Vi cc thuc tnh vn tc lu thng 28.5km/h ( Theo iu

chnh Quy hoch tng th pht trin GTVT Tp.HCM n nm 2020 v tm nhn sau

nm 2020).

Hnh 4.15 Cc ng kt ni tm TAZ

Cc ng kt ni t tm ExternalTAZ dn TAZ: c xy dng da

trn tm ExternalTAZ vi cc trc ng chnh. Thuc tnh ca cc ng kt ni

ny ly theo ng chnh ko di ca mng li ng ni vng.


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Kt qu:File ma trn bao gm Thi gian, khong cch, chi ph i li gia

cc Zone (Time distance cost.MAT). Ph lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON

M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS.

File chng trnh:

Thi gian i li: Ma trn thi gian, chi ph v qung ng c mi lin h

trc tip vi nhau. Vi trng hp lu thng t do ( xe khng b tc nghn) th

thi gian i li c tnh da vo mi quan h gia qung ng v vn tc:

t0=(li.distance/li.speed)*60/1000 (quy i n v tnh vn tc t km/h sang m/pht

nhn thm vi 60/1000).


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MW[1] l ma trn thi gian i li gia cc zone.

MW[2] l ma trn khong cch gia cc zone.

[I] ngha l i li trong 1 zone ni b. Nu i trong ni zone th Cube khng

th tnh ton thi gian v khong cch nn s liu ny c gi nh da vo cc s

liu khc.

Cu lnh: MW[1] [I] = rowmin(1)*0.5 l ma trn thi gian i li ni zone (

v d nh i li trong Zone 1) c tnh bng gi tr nh nht trong hng nhn

vi 0.5. y l gi tr mc nh.

Cu lnh: MW[2] [I] = rowmin(2)*0.1 l ma trn khong cch i li ni

zone. N c tnh bng cch ly gi tr nh nht trong hng nhn vi 0.1. y l

gi tr mc nh.

Chi ph i li: Chi ph i li = Distance.VOC

Vi VOC (vehicle operating cost) l chi ph vn hnh phng tin tnh theo

VND/km. Gi nh 1 lt xng l 27.000 VND v 1 lt xng i c 30 km trong

thnh ph th gi tng ng l 900/1000000 Nghn VND/m. Chi ph vn hnh

phng tin bao gm rt nhiu yu t nh gi mua xe, bo him, khu hao, chi phi li n thun.

Cu lnh: MW[3]=1.5*mw[2]*900/1000000 l VOC ma trn chi ph vn

hnh phng tin. Vi 1.5 l h s iu chnh, xt nh hng ca cc yu t khc

tc ng n chi ph i li.

Cu lnh: IF(I>12) MW[3][I]=9999999999 l cc chuyn i ni vng c

Ma trn chi ph =9999999999 vi cc Zone ln hn 12 (ExternalTAZ). iu ny

gip phn b chuyn i ni vng ca cc ExternalTAZ=0.

4.2.1.3 M hnh pht sinh v thu ht chuyn i ( Trip Generation )

M hnh pht sinh (P) v thu ht (A) chuyn i c xy dng l cc hm

hi quy tuyn tnh 3 bin vi cc bin l s lng dn s, s lng lao ng v s

lng hc sinh sinh vin. C th kt qu tnh ton nh sau.

M hnh pht sinh chuyn i:

Pi= ai*Population + bi*Workers + ci*Students


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M hnh thu ht chuyn i:

Aj= xj*Population + yj*Workers + zj*Students

Trong : Population : Dn s

Workers : S lao ng

Students : S HSSV

ai, bi, ci, xj, yj, zj l tham s, h s hi quy tng ng.

Bng 4.4 Tham s, h s hi quy m hnh pht sinh, thu ht chuyn i

Chuyn i Dn s HSSV

Lao

ng

Phtsinh

HBW

H s 0.002742 -0.047176 0.452868

t Stat 0.062260 -0.509062 3.919127

HBS

H s 0.025684 0.131965 0.071725

t Stat 0.434999 1.062323 0.463062

HBO

H s 0.312818 -0.125096 -0.145789

t Stat 2.800396 -0.532286 -0.497503

NHB

H s 0.014581 0.019505 -0.006825

t Stat 0.536623 0.341202 -0.095754

Thu

ht

HBW

H s -0.022228 0.175015 0.322392

t Stat -0.245755 0.919720 1.358731

HBS

H s -0.122150 0.456722 0.408566

t Stat -2.384580 4.237840 3.040354

HBOH s -0.102445 0.622483 0.803569t Stat -0.345498 0.997832 1.033052

NHB

H s 0.002496 0.036485 0.026851

t Stat 0.088677 0.616072 0.363621

Trong qu trnh phng vn kho st thc t chuyn i, s chuyn i kho

st c khng nhiu v kt qu kho st phi qua mt bc hiu chnh nn kt qu


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vng (ExternalTAZ) c ly theo iu chnh Quy hoch pht trin GTVT

Tp.HCM n nm 2020 v tm nhn sau nm 2020.

Bng 4.5 Ma trn OD Tng chuyn i nm 2020 gia Qun 10 v cc

Qun, huyn khc ca Tp.HCM

Pht sinh Thu ht

Ni i/ Ni n Qun 10 Ni n/ Ni i Qun 10

Qun 1 18413 Qun 1 18873Qun 2 8066 Qun 2 10227Qun 3 24468 Qun 3 22358

Qun 4 8953 Qun 4 8986Qun 5 28000 Qun 5 28426Qun 6 12628 Qun 6 15240Qun 7 19273 Qun 7 19967Qun 8 32599 Qun 8 26966Qun 9 15873 Qun 9 20724Qun 10 - Qun 10 -Qun 11 21532 Qun 11 21464

Qun 12 17809 Qun 12 25076G Vp 25682 G Vp 22157Tn Bnh 48516 Tn Bnh 48320

Bnh Thnh 18840 Bnh Thnh 17339Ph Nhun 10455 Ph Nhun 10780Th c 18091 Th c 15007C Chi 21836 C Chi 31603

Hc Mn 17549 Hc Mn 19100Bnh Chnh 29961 Bnh Chnh 32105

Nh B 11478 Nh B 15865Cn Gi 6269 Cn Gi 7803Tn Ph 43497 Tn Ph 32761Bnh Tn 39502 Bnh Tn 44627

Tng 499290 Tng 515774Ngun iu chnh Quy hoch pht trin GTVT Tp.HCM n nm 2020 v

tm nhn sau nm 2020.


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Bng 4.6 Ma trn OD ngoi vng (ExternalTAZ)

Zone Qun I-E E-I

13

Qun 2, Qun 9, Bnh Thnh,

Th c, Qun 3 85338 85655

14

Bnh Chnh, Bnh tn, Qun

11, Qun 6, Qun 5, Qun 8 164222 168828

15

Qun 1, Qun 4, Qun 7, Nh

B, Cn Gi 64386 71494

16

Tn Bnh, G Vp, Hoc Mn,

C Chi, Tn Ph, Ph Nhun 167535 164721

Tng 481481 490698

Da vo Ma trn OD ngoi vng(I-E v E-I Trips) ta c th xc nh c

chuyn i pht sinh PI-E, PE-Iv thu ht AI-E, AE-I. Gi tr PI-E ca cc Zone ni vng

c tnh da vo Tng AI-E v chia u cho 12 Zone ni vng. Gi tr AE-Ica cc

Zone ni vng c tnh da vo Tng PE-Iv chia u cho 12 Zone ni vng. Mtkhc s chuyn i pht sinh, thu ht ca khu vc ngoi zone n khu vc Qun 10

c gi nh l PE-E = AE-E =200.000 chuyn i. (Xem Bng 4.6)

Bng 4.7 Pht sinh, thu ht cho cc mc ch I-E, E-I, E-E

Zone/

Chuyn

i

I-E E-I E-E

P A P A P A

1 40123 0 0 40892 0 0

2 40123 0 0 40892 0 0

3 40123 0 0 40892 0 0

4 40123 0 0 40892 0 0

5 40123 0 0 40892 0 0

6 40123 0 0 40892 0 0


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File chng trnh:


32/77



Trong :

P[1]: Chuyn i Pht sinh vi mc ch HBW.

P[2]: Chuyn i Pht sinh vi mc ch HBS.

P[3]: Chuyn i Pht sinh vi mc ch HBO.

P[4]: Chuyn i Pht sinh vi mc ch NHB.

P[5]: Chuyn i Pht sinh ngoi Zone PI-E

P[6]: Chuyn i Pht sinh ngoi Zone PE-I

P[7]: Chuyn i Pht sinh lin vng PE-E

P[8]: Tng s chuyn i Pht sinh.

A[1]: Chuyn i Thu ht vi mc ch HBW.

A[2]: Chuyn i Thu ht vi mc ch HBS.

A[3]: Chuyn i Thu ht vi mc ch HBO.

A[4]: Chuyn i Thu ht vi mc ch NHB.

A[5]: Chuyn i Thu ht ngoi Zone PI-E

A[6]: Chuyn i Thu ht ngoi Zone PE-I

A[7]: Chuyn i Thu ht lin vng PE-EA[8]: Tng s chuyn i Thu ht.

Cu lnh: BALANCE A2P=1,2,3 NHB=4 nhm mc ch cn bng s

chuyn i pht sinh v thu ht. Vi vic s dng cc h s hi quy a vo tnh

ton S chuyn i Pht sinh v Thu ht s lm cho hai gi tr ny khc nhau. Theo

nguyn tc tng s chuyn i Pht sinh bng tng s chuyn Thu ht. Tc l P=

A nn cn phi hiu chnh li hai gi tr S chuyn i Pht sinh v Thu ht cho cc

mc ch chuyn i c th.

Cube Citilabs a ra 3 nguyn tc cn bng:

A2P: Tng s chuyn i Thu ht bng tng s chuyn i Pht sinh cho mc

ch .

P2A: Tng s chuyn i Pht sinh bng tng s chuyn i Thu ht cho mc

ch .


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NHB: tng s chuyn i hp dn bng tng s chuyn i pht sinh cho mc

ch . V s chuyn i pht sinh ca tng zone bng vi s chuyn i hp dn ca

zone .

Thng thng A2P cho cc mc ch home based ( HB)

NHB cho mc ch non home based (NHB)

Nh vy A2P=1,2,3 s dng cn bng s chuyn i Pht sinh v Thu ht

cho mc ch chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO. NHB=4 s dng cn bng s chuyn

i Pht sinh v Thu ht cho mc ch chuyn i NHB.

4.2.1.4 M hnh phn b chuyn i ( Trip Distribution)

Phng php dng xc nh s phn phi hnh trnh l dng m hnh

phn phi hp dn (Gravity mode), phng php ny xc nh r s hnh trnh i li

gia im xut pht v im n nh l mt hm s v thuc tnh i v n (thuc

tnh OD) v chi ph i li gia chng:

Trong :

Tij = Hnh trnh t vng i n vng j.

Pi = Tng s hnh trnh pht sinh t vng i.

Aj = S hnh trnh hp thu vo vng j.

Fij = H s tr khng, thng thng l hm s t l nghch vi thi gian di

chuyn gia i v j. Trong lun vn ny s dng l hm s t l nghch vi chi ph s

dng phng tin gia i v j.

Kij = H s hiu chnh v mt kinh t x hi cho nhng hnh trnh xut

pht t i v n vng j, thng ly bng 1.

H s tr khng Fij

Mi quan h gia phn phi chiu di chuyn i v chi ph i li c biu

din bi "ma st" ng cong bng cch s dng cng thc sau:

Fij= CijAexp(BCij)


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Trong :

Fij l h s tr khng.

Cij l chi ph chuyn i t vng pht sinh i n vng hp dn j

A v B l hng s hiu chun nh th hin trong bng 4.8

Bng 4.8 M hnh phn b chuyn i - Cc hng s hiu chun

Mc ch chuyn i A B

HBW -0.8002 -0.0397

HBS -0.2126 -0.133

HBO 0.0607 -0.1195

NHB 0.3197 -0.1109

Ngun: D bo lu lng hnh khch v doanh thu Tuyn metro s 2-

MVA

T cc hng s hiu chun A, B trn ta c th tnh H s tr khng Fij cho

cc mc ch chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO, NHB vi cc gi tr gi nh. ng vi

gi tr Cij=1 th cc gi tr tng ng ca hm Fij cho HBW=0.961078, HBS=

0.875465, HBO= 0.887364, NHB= 0.895028, tnh ton tng t cho cc gi tr Cij

khc ( Xem bng 4.9). Gi tr Fij ny s dng cho qu trnh ni suy gi tr tr khng

Fij trong chng trnh DISTRIBUTION. H s c iu chnh ph hp vi

m hnh.

Bng 4.9 H s tr khng vi mc ch chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO,NHB

Cij HBW HBS HBO NHB I-E E-I E-E

0.01 1.8316 2.6584 0.7552 0.2291 10.869 10.869 10.8691 0.9611 0.8755 0.8874 0.895 0.9047 0.9047 0.90475 0.2262 0.3653 0.6066 0.9608 0.5397 0.5397 0.53977 0.1596 0.2606 0.4875 0.8571 0.4412 0.4412 0.4412

10 0.1065 0.1621 0.3481 0.6888 0.3264 0.3264 0.326425 0.0282 0.0181 0.0613 0.1749 0.0706 0.0706 0.070650 0.006 0.0006 0.0032 0.0136 0.0059 0.0059 0.0059

Cn bng s chuyni pht sinh v chuyn i thu ht Pi = Aj.


35/77



Ta bit Pi v Aj c xc nh c t qu trnh pht sinh hnh trnh,

tng hnh trnh pht sinh ra phi bng tng hnh trnh hp thu.

Pi = Aj.

Khi tng s hnh trnh hp thu cho mi vng khng bng tng s hnh trnh

hp thu ban u, ta cn iu chnh li nhn t hp thu. Ta phi tnh ton li nhn t

hp thu theo cng thc sau:

Trong :

- Ajk = Nhn t hp thu hiu chnh cho vng hp thu (ct) j ln th k.

- Ajk = Aj khi k =1

- Cjk = Tng gi tr hp thu (ct) thc t cho vng j ln th k

- Aj = tng s hp thu mong mun thuc vng hp thu (ct) j

- j = s th t khu vc hp thu

- n = s lng khu vc

- k = s ln lpM hnh DISTRIBUTION Phn b chuyn i c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.20 M hnh phn b chuyn i

Thng tin u vo:

File Matrix File 1l ma trn Thi gian, khong cch, chi ph i li gia cc

vng. Time distance cost.MATc ly t chng trnh HIGHWAY.


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File Zoanl Data 1 l s liu s chuyn i pht sinh, thu ht. Generation.dbf

c ly t chng trnh GENERATION.

Kt qu: File ma trn phn b chuyn iDistribution.MAT. Xem Ph lc

C: CC KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS

File chng trnh:


37/77




38/77



Trong :

MAXITER: S vng lp ti a l 99, dng cn bng Pi = Aj.

MAXRMSE (Root Mean Squared Error): Sai s bnh phng trung bnh ln

nht.

RMSE dng kim tra sai s gia Aj ban u v Aj sau khi tnh lp trong

m hnh.

LOOKUP NAME=FF, Thnh lp hm Friction Factor

LOOKUP[1]=1,RESULT=2, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 2(HBW)

LOOKUP[2]=1,RESULT=3, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 3 (HBS)

LOOKUP[3]=1,RESULT=4, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 4 (HBO)

LOOKUP[4]=1,RESULT=5, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 5 (NHB)

LOOKUP[5]=1,RESULT=6, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 6 (I-E)

LOOKUP[6]=1,RESULT=7, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 7 (E-I )

LOOKUP[7]=1,RESULT=8, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 8 (E-E ).

INTERPOLATE=T, Cho php ni suy cc gi tr gia khi chi ph khng

trn.

LIST=Y, Lit k cc gi tr trong bng tnh ton.

R: H s tr khng Fij cho cc mc ch chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO, NHB, I-

E, E-I, E-E vi cc gi tr gi nh. S dng ni suy cc gi tr Fij khc.

MW[20]=MI.1.3 Ma trn lin quan xc nh hm tr khng, y l ma trnCOST_MC (chi ph i li gia cc Zone).

GRAVITY PURPOSE=1,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF







39/77



GRAVITY PURPOSE=7,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF, Cu lnh lin quan

n Graivity Model.

MW[8]=MW[1]+MW[2]+MW[3]+MW[4]+MW[5]+ MW[6] + MW[7] l Ma

trn tng ca cc ma trn chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO, NHB, I-E, E-I, E-E.

4.2.1.5 M hnh phn chia phng thc: ( Mode Choice )

a. Thit lp chi ph i li bng GTCC:(Puplic Transport)

Hnh 4.21 M hnh xy dng mng li GTCC

Thng tin u vo:Network File c ly t Network ca mng liNetwork10.net

Line File 1 l file thit lp hin cc tuyn xe but da trn mng li

Network Cactuyenxebuyt.lin

System File 1 l file h thng nh ngha v cc phng thc di chuyn

System.PTS

Fares File l file nh ngha v h thng gi ca xe but Fares.far

Factor File l file chng trnh la chn kh nng tip cn Factor.fac

Cc file thit lp u vo nh sau:

Bng 4.10 Thng k h thng xe but trn a bn Qun 10

STT M s tuyn im u im cui1 Tuyn s 103 Bn xe Ch Ln Bn xe Ng 4 Ga.2 Tuyn s 13 Bn Thnh Bn xe C Chi.3 Tuyn s 94 bn xe Ch Ln Bn xe C Chi.

4 Tuyn s 27 Bn Thnh Bn Xe An Sng


40/77


41/77



Hnh 4.23 S h thng mng li cc tuyn i qua khu vc Qun 10

System File 1nh ngha v cc phng thc di chuyn ca h thng

Phng thc di chuyn 1 l i xe but

Phng thc di chuyn 100 l i b

Cc phng thc ny c nh ngha nhm m ha trong cu lnh c ddng.

Fares File l file nh ngha v h thng gi ca xe but, h thng gi xe

but c nh ngha da vo nh ngha phng thc ca h thng

Cc loi v c nh ngha trong Cube Citilabs nh sau:

Free: min ph

Flat: gi chung c nh cho tuyn

Distance: bao gm chi ph ln xe v chi ph cho tng tuyn ng


42/77



From/to: Chi ph ph thuc vo im bt u v im kt thc.

Count: chi ph da trn tng s Zones i qua

Accumlate: Mi Zones c mt gi v khc nhau v s cng vo chi ph

chung

Hilow: Chi ph b nh hng bi s lng zone cao nht i qua.

Trong lun vn s dng nh ngha Flat cho tt c cc tuyn c gi chung l

2000 VN.

Factor File 1 l file chng trnh la chn kh nng tip cn n giao

thng cng.

Trong lun vn la chn thut ton Bestpathonly l la chn ng ngn

nht tip cn(t).

Kt qu:

Network File: mng li cc tuyn xe but, cc tuyn ng k ni t tm

Zone n cc trm dng nh ch.

Links File 1:Bng thng k cc thuc tnh (in u, im cui, khong

cch, thi gian).NTLegs File:Lit k cc thuc tnh ca cc tuyn ng i b kt ni t

tm Zone dn trm dng nh ch.

Matrix File 1: File ma trn chi ph i li bng xe but MAtrixCP.MAT.

Xem Ph lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE

CITILABS

File chng trnh:


43/77




44/77



Trong :

LW.TRANTIME = 0.80*(li.DISTANCE*60/1000)/LI.SPEED ( hm thit

lp chi ph thi gian bng qung ng chia cho vn tc)l thi gian i li ca xe

but c gi nh bng 0.8 ln thi gian i li ca phng tin c nhn.

LW.WALKTIME = 1.00*(li.DISTANCE*60/1000)/4.5 l thi gian i li

ca i b c gi nh rng vn tc ca ngi i b l 4.5 km/h.

COST=LI.DISTANCE: nh ngha hm chi ph c tnh bng n v mt

EXTRACTCOST=LW.WALKTIME

MAXCOST=500 ch tnh tip cn xe but t trm dng cho khu vc

R=500m

NTLEGMODE=100 l nh ngha phng thc i b l 100

FROMNODE=1-16, TONODE=16-9999

MW[1]=FAREA(0): ma trn MW[1] l gi v i li bng xe but FAREA

IF (MW[1]=0) MW[1]=9999: nu gi tr MW[1] = 0 th nhn gi tr

9999

Hnh 4.24 Mt bao ph ca mng li cc tuyn i qua khu vc Qun 10


45/77



Trn ton Qun 10 mng li xe but c bao ph gn nh hon ton.

Vng trn en l tm ca cc trm dng, nh ch ca h thng xe but. T tm

vng trn xanh th hin bn knh trm dng, nh ch l 500m, vi khong cch ny

th xc sut la chn phng tin xe but s thp v dn dn tin gn n vng trn

mu th khong cch ngn hn, xc sut la chn phng tin xe but cao hn.

ng ni tm Zone: Tm Zone c kt ni vi cc trm xe but, nh ch

gn nht bng h thng ng kt ni s dng phng thc i b. Theo tt c

cc Zone s s dng phng tin giao thng cng cng xe but tha khong cch i

b khng qu 500m.

Hnh 4.25 ng kt ni tm Zone bng phng thc i b

b. Xc nh phng thc la chn:


46/77



Sau khi hon thnh cng tc phn phi hnh trnh, cng vic tip theo l

phi xc nh c phng thc i li bng phng tin no s c s dng. Giai

on ny d bo c bao nhiu ngi s dng phng tin giao thng cng cng v

bao nhiu ngi s dng phng tin giao thng c nhn. Gi nh n nm 2020

cc tuyn Metro cha c hon thnh, nn phng tin giao thng cng cng ch

tnh cho mng li xe but hin hu. Cc phng thc vn ti c chia thnh 2

loi :

Phng tin giao thng cng cng : Xe But

Phng tin giao thng c nhn: Xe my v xe t

C rt nhiu phng pht tnh ton bc ny, trong m hnh gi nh

s dng hm tha dng sau tnh ton:

Vi Ci l chi ph i li ca phng tin

Gi nh xc xut i xe But:

Gi nh xc xut i xe c nhn:

i vi xc xut i xe but tng ng vi cc gi tr gi nh.

Vi =0 c th nhn thy xc xut la chn GTCC l 12.5%. Gi tr cng

cao tng ng vi xc xut la chn phng tin c chi ph i li thp hn cng

cao. y, trong lun vn gi nh vi cc mc ch ca chuyn i tng ng vicc gi tr sau:

HBW: 0.1, HBS: 0.25, HBO: 0.1, NHB: 0.1, EXTERNAL: 0.05


47/77



Hnh 4.26 Xc xut la chn GTCC

Theo quy hoch chung ca Thnh ph H Ch Minh n nm 2020 v tm

nhn sau nm 2020 th nm 2020, xe c nhn chim 75% phng thc, phng tin

giao thng cng cng chim 25%. Hin ti t l xe but chim 6%-7%, n nm

2020 vi gi nh rng cc tuyn metro cha hon thnh th d on t l xe but

tng ln t 20% n 25%. V vy trong m hnh tnh ton c iu chnh li h scho ph hp vi t l ca phng thc.

M hnh Mode Choice c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.27 M hnh phn chia phng thc Mode Choice


48/77



Thng tin u vo:

Matrix File 1 l ma trn phn b chuyn i Trip Distribution.MAT t

chng trnh DISTRIBUTION

Matrix File 2 l ma trn thi gian, khong cch v chi ph Time Dis

Cost.MATt chng trnh HIGHWAY

Matrix File 3 l ma trn chi ph i li bng xe but MAtrixCP.MAT t

chng trnh PUBLIC TRANSPORT

Kt qu:File ma trn phn chia phng thc la chn chuyn i gia cc

Zone Mode Choice.MAT. Kt qu xut ra c trnh by trong Ph lc C: CC

KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS

File chng trnh:


49/77




50/77



Trong :

MW[1]=MI.1.1 ; HBW MATRIX : Ma trn chuyn i theo mc ch HBW

MW[2]=MI.1.2 ; HBS MATRIX: Ma trn chuyn i theo mc ch HBS

MW[3]=MI.1.3 ; HBO MATRIX: Ma trn chuyn i theo mc ch HBO

MW[4]=MI.1.4 ; NHB MATRIX: Ma trn chuyn i theo mc ch NHB

MW[5]=MI.1.5+MI.1.6+MI.1.7 ; EXTERNAL MATRIX: Ma trn chuyn

ca ngoi zone External.

MW[8]=MI.2.3 ; MC_COST: Ma trn chi ph ca phng tin c nhn

MW[9]=3.1 ;PT_COST: Ma trn chi ph ca phng tin xe but.

HBW (LAMBDA=0.1) : Mc ch HBW vi gi tr Lamda = 0.1

MW[10]=EXP(-0.1*MW[8]) Hm hu dng chi ph c nhn mc ch

HBW


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MW[11]=EXP(-0.1*MW[9]) Hm hu dng chi ph xe but mc ch

HBW

MW[12]=MW[10]+MW[11] Tng hm hu dng chi ph c nhn v xe

but

MW[13]=(MW[11]/MW[12])/4 Xc sut i bng xe but cho mc ch

HBW

MW[14]=1-MW[13] Xc sut i bng xe CN cho mc ch HBW

Tng t cho cc chuyn i HBS, HBO, NHB, EXTERNAL ng vi cc

gi tr Lamda gi nh.

MW[35]=MW[1]*MW[14]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho HBW

MW[36]=MW[1]*MW[13]: S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho HBW

MW[37]=MW[2]*MW[19]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho HBS

MW[38]=MW[2]*MW[18]: S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho HBW

MW[39]=MW[3]*MW[24]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho HBO

MW[40]=MW[3]*MW[23] : S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho HBW

MW[41]=MW[4]*MW[29]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho NHBMW[42]=MW[4]*MW[18]: S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho HBW

MW[43]=MW[5]*MW[34]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho

EXTERNAL

MW[44]=MW[5]*MW[33]: S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho

EXTERNAL

MW[45]=MW[35]+MW[37]+MW[39]+MW[41]+MW[43] ; Tng chuyn

i bng phng tin c nhn

MW[46]=MW[36]+MW[38]+MW[40]+MW[42]+MW[44] ; Tng chuyn

i bng phng tin giao thng cng cng.

4.2.1.6 Xt nh hng thi gian i vi cc chuyn i ( Time Of Day

Characteristic)

a. Chuyn t PA sang OD


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bc Mode choice xc nh c s lng chuyn i bng phng

thc c nhn dng PA (Production-Attraction) cho cc mc ch HBW, HBS,

HBO, NHB v External. Tuy nhin ma trn dng PA khc ma trn dng OD. V OD

ch ng hng di chuyn ca chuyn i. Chnh v vy ta thc hin mt bc

chuyn i t chuyn i dng PA sang OD.

Theo xt kt qu nghin cu National Cooperative Highway Research

Program - 365 th bc chuyn t ma trn PA sang ma trn OD c tnh ton nh

sau:

i vi OD ca cc chuyn i HB: OD(HB)=(P+A)/2

i vi cc chuyn i lin quan n nh ( HBW, HBS, HBO) th ma trn

OD c tnh bng (ma trn P+ma trn P hon v)/2. C th i vi mc nh HBW

c tnh nh sau:

HBWOD=0.5 x HBWPA+ 0.5 x HBWPA

Trong :

HBWOD : l ma trn OD cho chuyn i vi mc ch BHW

HBWPA: l ma trn PA cho chuyn i vi mc ch BHWHBWPA: l ma trn PA hon v cho chuyn i vi mc ch BHW

i vi NHB v External th ma trn PA =OD v hng ca ma trn NHB

trong nh ngha pht sinh v thu ht ging vi ma trn OD nn khng cn chuyn

i.

M hnh Chuyn t P-A sang O-D c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.28 M hnh chuyn i t P-A sang O-D

Thng tin u vo:Matrix File 1: l ma trn chuyn i c nhn v GTCC

Mode Choice.MAT t chng trnh MATRIX 5 (Mode Choice)

Thng tin u ra: Matrix File 1: Ma trn chuyn i c nhn v GTCC

chuyn i sang OD ( matra OD.MAT). Kt qu xut ra c trnh by trong Ph


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lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE

CITILABS

File chng trnh:

Trong :


54/77



MW[1]=MI.1.1 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i c nhn HBW

MW[2]=MI.1.2 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i xe but HBW

MW[3]=MI.1.3 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i c nhn HBS

MW[4]=MI.1.4 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i xe but HBS

MW[5]=MI.1.5 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i c nhn HBO

MW[6]=MI.1.6 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i xe but HBO

MW[11]=MI.1.1.T; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i c nhn HBW

MW[12]=MI.1.2.T; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i xe but HBW

MW[13]=MI.1.3.T ; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i c nhn HBS

MW[14]=MI.1.4.T ; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i xe but HBS

MW[15]=MI.1.5.T ; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i c nhn HBO

MW[16]=MI.1.6.T ; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i xe but HBO

MW[21]=((MW[1]+MW[11])/2) ; Ma trn D chuyn i c nhn ca HBW

MW[22]=((MW[2]+MW[12])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca HBW

MW[23]=((MW[3]+MW[13])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn ca HBS

MW[24]=((MW[4]+MW[14])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca HBSMW[25]=((MW[5]+MW[15])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn ca HBO

MW[26]=((MW[6]+MW[16])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca HBO

MW[27]=MI.1.7 ; Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn ca HBW

MW[28]=MI.1.8 ; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca NHB

MW[29]=MI.1.9 ; Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn ca EXTERNAL

MW[30]=MI.1.10 ; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca EXTERNAL

MW[31]=MW[21]+MW[23]+MW[25]+MW[27]+MW[29] Tng s chuyn

i CN

MW[32]=MW[22]+MW[24]+MW[26]+MW[28]+MW[30] Tng s chuyn

i GTCC

b. Xc nh ma trn OD ca phng tin c nhn

Ma trn OD phng tin c nhn c chia lm 2 loi: l Xe my (MC) v

xe t (CAR), y khng xt cho phng thc i b. V mc tiu ca lun vn l


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nm c cc c s l thuyt ca d bo nn cc thng s chuyn i c gi nh

nh sau:

Chuyn i mc ch HBW c 30% i t v 70% xe my

Chuyn i mc ch HBS c 20% i b v 80% xe my

Chuyn i mc ch HBO c 30% i t v 70% xe my

Chuyn i mc ch NHB c 30% i t v 70% xe my

S chuyn i phng tin c nhn ang c tnh theo n v l

(chuyn/ngi) v vy cn quy i v n v xe con quy i (CAR) v xe my

(MOTORCYCLE) bng cch chia cho h s chuyn ch cho tng loi phng tin.

Theo thao kho h s chuyn ch phng tin nm d bo 2020 ca HOUTRANS

c:

H s chuyn ch ca t l 1.96

H s chuyn ch ca xe my l 1.3

M hnh O-D t xe my c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.29 M hnh xc nh ma trn OD t xe my

Thng tin u vo: Matrix File 1 Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn v

GTCC matran OD.MAT t chng trnh MATRIX 6 (P-A chuyn sang O-D).

Thng tin u ra:Matrix File 1Ma trn chuyn i c nhn bng xe my

v t (MT OTO XEMAY.MAT). Xem Ph lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON

M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS

File chng trnh:


56/77



Trong :

MW[1]=MI.1.1; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn HBW

MW[2]=MI.1.3; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn HBS

MW[3]=MI.1.5; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn HBO

MW[4]=MI.1.7; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn NHB

MW[5]=MI.1.9; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn EXTERNAL

MW[6]=0.3*MW[1]/1.96 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng t ca HBW


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MW[7]=0.7*MW[1]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca HBW

MW[8]=0.8*MW[2]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca HBS

MW[9]=0.3*MW[3]/1.96 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca HBO

MW[10]=0.7*MW[3]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca HBO

MW[11]=0.3*MW[4]/1.96 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng t ca NHB

MW[12]=0.7*MW[4]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca NHB

MW[13]=0.3*MW[5]/1.96 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng t ca EXTERNAL

MW[14]=0.7*MW[5]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca

EXTERNAL

MW[15]=MW[6]+MW[9]+MW[10]+MW[13] ; Tng s xe t

MW[16]=MW[7]+MW[8]+MW[10]+MW[12]+MW[14] ; Tng s xe my

c. Xc nh ma trn chuyn i s dng phng tin c nhn gi cao im

Chuyn i s dng phng tin c nhn y l t v xe my gi cao

im (lu lng gi cao im) dng kim tra, nh gi t chc giao thng, mc

phc v trn tng tuyn ng.

Theo TCXDVN 104:2007 mc 5.2.3 th lu lng gi cao im c tnh

nh sau: Ngi =(0.12-0.14) Ngi ngy m

Trong thut ton ca chng trnh chn Ngi =0.12Ngi ngy m

M hnh O-D t xe my gi cao im c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.30 M hnh Od t xe my gi cao im

Thng tin u vo:Matrix File 1Ma trn chuyn i c nhn bng xe my

v t MT OTO XEMAY.MAT t chng trnh MATRIX 7 (Ma tran OD oto xe

may)

Thng tin u ra: Matrix File 1Ma trn OD gi cao im chuyn i c

nhn bng xe my v t MT GCD.MAT. Xem Ph lc C: CC KT QU

TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS


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File chng trnh:

Trong :

MW[1] = MI.1.1.0.12 ma trn xc nh gi cao im ca t

MW[1] = MI.1.2.0.12 ma trn xc nh gi cao im ca xe my

MW[3[=MW[1]+MW[2] tng lu lng gi cao im CPU (CPU: lu

lng quy i sang n v xcq)


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Hnh 4.31 Lu lng PCU ni Zone trong gi cao im

4.2.1.7 Xc nh mng li ( Trip Assignment )

Phng php nng lc gii hn

Mi quan h gia vn tc V v lu lng N: c th hin trong Hnh 4.34

Mi quan h gia vn tc V v lu lng N. Trong c 5 min khu vc c

gii hn bi 6 mc phc v khc nhau tng ng t A n F ( t phi qua tri).

Hnh 4.32 Mi quan h gia vn tc V v lu lng N


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Khi lu lng tng ti nng lc thng qua ca ng, th tc

trung bnh ca dng giao thng s gim t tc t do (tc ca xe khi c mnh

n trn ng) cho n tc khi dng giao thng t ti a.

Mcphc v_LOS ( Level of Service): l thc o v cht lng vn hnh

ca dng giao thng, m ngi iu khin phng tin v hnh khch nhn bit

c. c nh gi theo mc 5.4.2 TCXDVN 104:2007 ng th, tiu

chun thit k.

Mcphc v c chia lm 6 cp khc nhau, k hiu l A,B,C,D,E,F.

mc A - cht lngphc v tt nht v mc F - cht lngphc v km

nht.Hssdngkhnng thnghnh (Z)l mt trongscc ch tiugn

linvimcphcvmtonngph.HssdngKNTH(Z)l ts

gia lu lng xe (N hoc V_volume) vi kh nng thng hnh (P hoc

C_capacity). H s s dng KNTH l thng s i din th hin mcphcv

camttuynng.

Bng 4.11 nh gi mcphcvvhssdngKNTH

STT

Mcphcv nh gi

H s s dngKNTH (Z)

1 A Dng t do, tc rt cao < 0.35

2 B Dng khng hon ton t do, tc cao 0.35 0.50

3 C

Dng n nh nhng ngi li chu nhhng khi mun t do chn tc mongmun 0.5 0.75

4 DDng bt u khng n nh, li xe c t tdo trong vic chn tc 0.75 0.90

5 E

Dng khng n nh, ng lm vic trngthi gii hn, bt k tr ngi no cng gy tcxe 0.90 1.00

6 F Dng hon ton mt n nh, tc xe xy ra > 1.00


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Khichtlng dng cngcao tclyucu tc chy xecng ln, h

s Zcng nh. Ngcli,khiZ tngdnthtcchyxetrungbnhcadng

xegimdnvnmtgitrnhtnhsxyratcxe(Z~1).

Cciukinvnhnhchungchoccmcphcv:

McphcvthitkvhssdngKNTHcsdngkhi thitk

ngphc quynhBng 4.11

Bng 4.12 McphcvvhssdngKNTH khi thit k

Loi ng

Cp

k thut

Tc thit

k (km/h)

Mc

phc v

H s s

dngKNTH

ng cao tc th

100 100C

0.6-0.7

80 80 0,7-0,870 70 0,7-0,8

ng phchnh th

80 80

C

0,7-0,8

70 70 0,7-0,860 60 0,8

50 50 0,8ng ph

gom

60 60D

0,850 50 0,8-0,940 40 0,8-0,9

ng ph nib

40 40 D 0,8-0,9

30 30E

0,920 20 0,9

Mi quan h gia Thi gian i li v Lu lng xe: c im quan

trng ca giao thng ng b l thi gian i li tng t l thun cng vi lu

lng: c cng nhiu phng tin lu thng trn cng mt on ng th th vn

tc ca dng xe cng gim v thi gian i li cng tng.

Mi quan h ny c biu din bng cng thc:

T= T0[ 1+ 0.15 ( V/C ) 4]

Trong :

T: Thi gian i li b tr hon (gin on) gia im u I v im cui J


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T0: Thi gian i li trng thi t do gia im u I v im cui J

V: Lu lng t im u I n im cui J.

C: Kh nng thng hnh ln nht ca tuyn ng.

Hnh 4.33 Mi quan h gia Lu lng v Thi gian i li

Ngun: Ti liu hng dn Cube ca Citilabs

M hnh HIGHWAY n nh tuyn ng Assignment c trnh nh

sau:

Hnh 4.34 M hnh n nh tuyn ng Assignment

Thng tin u vo:

Matrix File 1: File ma trn OD ca t v xe my gi cao im MT

GCD.MATly t chng trnh MATRIX 8.

Network File: File mng li ngNetwork10.NET

Intersctn Data: File thit lp nt giao Intersection data.IND (xem Ph lc

B).

Kt qu:


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Network File: File mng li cc tuyn ng sau khi c n nh cc

chuyn iLeadedNetwork.NET

Tunr Flows: File kt qu dng nh gi nt giaoIntersection data.INT

Path File 1: File kt qu dng nh gi mng liPathFile.PTH

File chng trnh:

Trong :

TURNS N=1-99999 T=TURN[1]+TURN[2]*0.25 Turn nh ngha tng

cc hng r bng tng hng r [1] cng vi hng r [2]*0.25. c xc nh

bng lu lng t + lu lng xe my*0.25 cho mi hng r. Cu lnh ny dng

xc nh lu lng ti cc hng r.

T0=((LI.DISTANCE/1000)/(LI.SPEED))*60 Thi gian i li trng thi t

do.

TC=T0*(1+0.15*(V/C)^4) Thi gian i li b nh hng bi lu lng.


64/77



V=VOL[1]+VOL[2]*0.25 Lu lng PCU = Lu lng t + Lu lng

xe my*0.25

4.2.2 nh gi cc kch bn giao thng

4.2.2.1 Kch bn 1 ( Gi nguyn mng li ng hin ti)

Lu lng PCU l lu lng xe con quy i.

Vi kch bn ny th lu lng ni qun c th hin nh sau:

Hnh 4.35 Lu lng PCU ni qun 10 kch bn 1 (I-I)

Lu lng PCU ni qun c phn b trn hu ht trn tt c cc tuyn

ng trn a bn, a phn tp trung ln nhng tuyn ng chnh kt ni tm

cc Zone ni vng vi nhau. Lu lng ny pht sinh ch yu do ngi dn trong

ni vng Qun 10 s dng i li trong ni qun.

Lu lng PCU i li trong khu vc nghin cu:


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Hnh 3.36 Lu lng PCU khu vc nghin cu kch bn 1

Khc vi lu lng PCU ni qun, lu lng CPU khu vc nghin cu

phn b ch yu trn cc tuyn ng chnh, ng trc chnh ca khu vc qun


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nh: ng Ba Thng Hai, L Thng Kit, in Bin Ph, Cch Mng Thng 8,

Nguyn Tri Phng, S Vn Hnh

Hng Bc Nam : lu lng phn b tp trung trn cc tuyn Cch mng

thng 8. Ngoi ra, mt phn lu lng cng i vo cc ng trc chnh ca khu

vc qun.

Hng ng Ty: lu lng phn b tp trung trn cc tuyn Ba Thng

Hai, Ng Gia T, in Bin Ph.

Mc phc v: da vo H s s dng KNTH trn tng tuyn ng ta c

th nh gi s b tuyn ng no tc nghn, tuyn ng no lu thng bnh

thng.

Cc tuyn ng c H s s dng KNTH 1 (tng ng mc phc v F):

cc tuyn dng b tc nghn


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Hnh 4.37 nh gi mc phc v kch bn 1

Nhn chung cc tuyn ng trong ni qun lu thng kh n nh, khng

b tt nghn. Tuy nhin cc tuyn ng trc chnh ca qun lu thng kh khn v

bt u xut hin tnh trng tc nghn ti cc trc nh: L Thi T, S Vn Hnh,

Nguyn Tri Phng, Ng Gia T. Hu ht cc tuyn ng kt ni vi cc khu vcngoi vi vo trung tm a phn lu thng khng n nh, nhiu trng hp b tc

nghn nh: L Thng Kit, Cc Mng Thng Tm, Ba Thng Hai, in Bin Ph.

Thi gian i li trn mng li:Vi gi nh rng thi gian i li khng

b nh hng bi nt giao v dn tn hiu. (n v: Pht)


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Hnh 4.38 Thi gian i li b qua nh hng nt giao, n tn hiu kch bn 1

4.2.2.2 Kch bn 2 ( M rng mng li ng theo quy hoch giao thng)

Theo iu chnh quy hoch pht trin GTVT TP H Ch Minh n nm

2020 v tm nhn sau nm 2020 th v kt cu h tng giao thng u c nng

cp m rng p ng c nhu cu i li trong tng lai. Vi kch bn thay i

m rng nay, chiu rng cc tuyn ng c ly theo Ph lc 1: Quy m cp

hng k thut ca cc tuyn v nt giao thuc mng li ng c s nh sau:


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Bng 4.13 Thng k ng m rng Qun 10 theo iu chnh quy hoch

Stt Tn ng im u im cui

Chiurngmt

ng

Sln

Khnngthnghnh

Schiu

(m) Ln

1Cch MngThng Tm Bc Hi

Cng TrngDn Ch 23 7 12600 2

2 Ba Thng HaiCch MngThng 8

L ThngKit 18 6 10800 2

3in BinPh

Ng 7 LThi T

Cch MngThng Tm 15 5 9000 1

4 Ng Gia TNg 7 LThi T Ng Quyn 18 6 10800 2

5 Hung Vng L Thi TNguyn ChThanh 9 3 5400 1

6T HinThnh

Cch MngThng Tm L Gia 18 6 9600 2

7 L Thi TBa ThngHai

Nguyn ThMinh Khai 23 7 12600 2

8Nguyn TriPhng

T HinThnh

Ng 6Nguyn TriPhng 18 6 9600 2

9Ly ThngKit

Ng 4 ByHin

Nguyn ChThanh 22 7 12600 2

10L HngPhong H K Ha

Trn Hngo 18 6 10800 2

Vi kch bn ny th lu lng CPU vn theo hng tip cn nh kch bn

1 tuy nhin vi vic m rng mng li theo quy hoch ca thnh ph gii quyt

tnh trng qu ti trn cc tuyn ng.

Lu lng PCU l lu lng xe con quy i.

Vi kch bn ny th lu lng ni qun c th hin nh sau:


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Hnh 4.39 Lu lng PCU ni qun 10 kch bn 2 (I-I)

kch bn 2 ny, th vic m rng cc trc ng chnh trn a bn khng

nh hng nhiu n Lu lng PCU ni qun. Lu lng PCU ni qun c

phn b trn hu ht trn tt c cc tuyn ng trn a bn, a phn tp trung ln

nhng tuyn ng chnh kt ni tm cc Zone ni vng vi nhau.Lu lng PCU i li trong khu vc nghin cu:


71/77



Hnh 4.40 Lu lng PCU khu vc nghin cu kch bn 2


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Cng nh kch bn 1, kch bn 2 ny lu lng CPU khu vc nghin

cu phn b ch yu trn cc tuyn ng chnh, ng trc chnh ca khu vc

qun nh: ng Ba Thng Hai, L Thng Kit, in Bin Ph, Cch Mng

Thng 8, Nguyn Tri Phng, S Vn Hnh

Hng Bc Nam : lu lng phn b tp trung trn cc tuyn Cch mng

thng 8. Ngoi ra, mt phn lu lng cng i vo cc ng trc chnh ca khu

vc qun.

Hng ng Ty: lu lng phn b tp trung trn cc tuyn Ba Thng

Hai, Ng Gia T, in Bin Ph.

Mc phc v:

Hnh 4.41 nh gi mc phc v kch bn 2

Nhn chung cc tuyn ng trong khu vc ni qun cng nh cc trc kt

ni vi cc vng bn ngoi lu thng n nh, khng cn tnh trng tc nghn nh

kch bn gi nguyn hin trng.


73/77



Thi gian i li trn mng li:Vi gi nh rng thi gian i li khng

b nh hng bi nt giao v n tn hiu. (n v: Pht)

Hnh 4.42 Thi gian i li b qua nh hng ca nt giao, n tn hiu kch

bn 2

4.3. nh gi kh nng thng hnh qua cc nt in hnh

Kh nng thng hnh ca mt nt giao thng c iu khin bng n tn

hiu l tng kh nng thng hnh ca cc ng dn vo nt trong mt n v thi

gian (thng l gi xanh). Trong phn mm Cube Citilab, nh gi kh nng thnghnh qua nt c da theo b tiu chun HCM 2000 ( Highway Capacity Manual).

Thi gian delay ny c tnh cho n v l giy nn trong kt qu xut ra ca Cube

Citilab (n v pht) phi c quy i v so snh vi cc mc theo HCM 2000.

nh gi kh nng thng hnh qua nt giao c la chn theo tiu ch thi gian tr

hon (Delay) cc mc sau:


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Hnh 4.43 Mc kh nng thng hnh qua nt giao theo HCM 2000

Ngun: Los Criteria For Signalized Intersections HCM 2000

4.3.1 Nt giao Ng 4 Ba Thng Hai L Hng Phong

Nt giao Ng 4 Ba Thng Hai L Hng Phong l nt giao ct kh quang

trng ca khu vc Qun vi tuyn ng Ba Thng Hai l trc ng chnh, l trc

ng Ty ca Thnh Ph. Tuyn ng L Hng Phong l tuyn ng lin Qun,

kt ni khu vc ni Qun vi khu vc khc.

Hnh 4.44 nh gi mc phc v nt giao Ng 4 BTH LHP kch bn 1


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kch bn 1, vi mng li ng hin ti mc nh gi phc v chung

y l D. Cc hng t Ba Thng Hai im 173 i v t 301 i L Hng Phong 235

vi thi gian delay mc 1.29 l kh ln nn mc nh gi l E dng khng n

nh, ng lm vic trng thi gii hn, bt k tr ngi no cng gy tc xe. Cc

hng cn li c nh gi mc B dng xe tng i n nh.

Trc ng Ba Thng Hai l trc ng chnh, trc ng ng Ty ca

khu vc v vy lu lng tp trung kh ln nn nh gi chung th cc hng Ba

Thng Hai i mc phc v D v E l hai mc cn cnh bo trng thi mt n nh

ca dng xe. Hng cn li L Hng Phong i l trc ng ni , lu lng ch

yu l phc v cho nhu cu i li cho ni vng v vy c nh gi tt hn mc

B dng xe tng i n nh.

Hnh 4.45 nh gi mc phc v nt giao Ng 4 BTH LHP kch bn 2

kch bn 2, vi mng li ng m rng theo iu chnh quy hoch

chung ca Thnh ph, th mc nh gi chung ca nt l B dng xe trng thi tt,


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lu thng n nh vi cc hng c c nh gi mc phc v A v B. Thi

gian tr hon mc kh thp t 0.15-0.25 pht. Kch bn 2 ny ph hp vi tnh

hnh thc t ca d bo nm 2020.

4.3.2 Nt giao Ng 4 Nguyn Tri Phng B Ht

Nt giao Ng 4 Nguyn Tri Phng B Ht l nt giao trong khu vc ni

Qun, vi Tuyn ng Nguyn Tri Phng l trc chnh ca Qun, kt ni cc

Zone trong khu vc vi nhau. Tuyn B Ht l tuyn ng mang tnh cht ni b,

kt ni cc khu vc dn c, phc v cho lu lng trn Zone i qua.

Hnh 4.46 nh gi mc phc v nt giaoNg 4 NTPBH kch bn 1


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Hnh 4.47 nh gi mc phc v nt giaoNg 4 NTPBH kch bn 2

Vi nt giao Nguyn Tri Phng B Ht l nt giao mang tnh cht ni

b, a s ch phc v cho dng lu lng ni vng nn mc phc v c nh

gi l A n nh, khng b tc ngn. Chnh v l nt giao mang tnh cht ni b

Qun nn c hai kch bn, th dng lu lng qua nt giao ny khng b tc ng

nhiu.

du bao giao thong bang pm cube citilabs

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