economic impact of bali round
TRANSCRIPT
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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2453125
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13-06 13-06
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[] [] [Working
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East Asian Economic Integration(JEAI,
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(http://www.kiep.go.kr)
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()
University of Maryland
(, E-mail: [email protected])
DDA (, 2012)
: (, 2012)
2013 KIEP
Economic Impact of the Bali Packages of the Doha Round
Jin Kyo Suh et al.
DDA 9 WTO (, ) 12
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TRQ , -,
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137-747 246
137-602 235
T.02-3460-1001, 1114 F.02-3460-1122, 1199
http://www.kiep.go.kr
10,000
Policy Analysis 13-06
ISBN 978-89-322-1453-5 978-89-322-1072-8()
FTA
FTA
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(GCF)
APEC :
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MENA
13-06 .indd 1 2014-04-21 1:56:07
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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2453125
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13-06
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Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2453125
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DDA 9 12 . NAMA DDA , WTO .
2013 , 3 . . .
. . , .
,
-
.
DDA WTO , DDA WTO .
2013 12
-
DDA
2004 DDA (Bali) 9 WTO (MC9: The 9th Ministerial Conference) 12 .
, 3 10 , .
2009 , section I() section II( ) . section I GATT 5( ), 8( ), 10( ) , . section II section I , A, B, C 3 . A , B , C .
section I section II .
-
2013 9 WTO section I , section II . .
i) TRQ , ii) , iii) 3 . TRQ G20 UR ( ) (TRQ) 4 . TRQ WTO , TRQ 3 65% TRQ TRQ TRQ .
. ( 6 TRQ ) , .
G33 , (resource poor) ()
-
DDA
, . , (interim solution) . . , WTO . 11 , .
2013 G20 , EU .
i) , ii) (Monitoring Mechanism) . 2013 5 4 ( -, , , ) . - ,
-
. , . WTO .
, .
3 . DDA OECD , (CGE) 10% . TRQ TRQ TRQ , 20% . , G20 , - 97% .
-
DDA
. GDP 1.5~3.9% , 4.3~7.4% ( ) 136~358 .1) GDP 0.03~0.06% , 0.06~0.10% .
GDP
(%) 1.5 3.9 0.03 0.06
( ) 166 430 3.1 6.4
( ) 136 358 2.3 4.5
(%) 4.3 7.4 0.06 0.1
1. :
: 2008 .
. GDP 1% . EU 3.5% GDP . EU 15
1) , .
-
13 , .
GDP . GDP 5.4~6.9% . GDP . .
GDP 2) 1 1,678 GDP 1 . 1 1,536 GDP 1 .
. GDP , . EU, GDP .
2) , EU, .
-
DDA
GDP ( )(%) ( )
0.94 179,628 163,470
EU 28 3.50 680,290 611,426
3.50 307,910 260,599
1,167,828 1,035,495
6.90 256,747 233,696
5.44 114,453 105,819
0.62 5,748 1,125
3.90 42,974 35,778
14.15 54,693 48,109
11.16 670,651 610,004
2.16 8,319 390
1,153,585 1,032,671: 2008 .
2. ()
GDP EU GDP . EU .
GDP . . GDP 0.6% , GDP . GDP
-
TRQ - GDP .3)
GDP
(%) ( ) ( )
(%, )
(%, )
0.00 389 804 0.14 0.12
EU 28 0.00 672 68 0.05 0.03
0.02 538 682 0.00 0.01
0.00 77 59 0.02 0.03
0.03 422 497 0.08 0.20
0.02 264 173 0.05 0.04
0.62 2,657 3,292 2.40 3.25
0.01 1,017 925 0.08 0.06
0.01 210 396 0.09 0.10
0.00 15.2 154 0.00 0.02
3. ()
TRQ - . .
3) TRQ TRQ .
-
DDA
GDP . GDP .
. .
, . 2 . . .
, DDA . DDA . EU, , , DDA 5 . GDP 0.6% 6 .
-
. TRQ GDP . TRQ . EU . - .
. . , DDA , .
. . .
G10 G33
-
DDA
. .
-
3
5
1 251. 262. 303. 314. 33 . 33 . 41
2 451. 46 . 46 . DDA 48 . 582. TRQ 61 . TRQ 61 . DDA 64 . 703. 72 . 72 . DDA 73 . 74
-
4. 76 . 76 . 81
3 871. 88 . 88 . 92 . 1072. TRQ 111 . TRQ 111 . TRQ 120 . TRQ 1253. 129 . 129 . 1364. () 139 . 139 . 144 . 146
4 1491. 150 . 150 . 1522. 155 . 155 . 157
-
3. 158
5 1631. 164 . 164 . TRQ 173 . 176 . 179 . 1812. 182 . 183 . 189 . 189
193
201 1. OECD 202 2. G20 TRQ 206 3. G20 211 4. 213 5. 222 6. TRQ 225 7. 226 8. 228
Executive Summary 231
-
1. : 9 2. () 11 3. () 12 2-1. 47 2-2. 7 D 48 2-3. WTO 52 2-4. 57 2-5. 60 2-6. G20 TRQ 4 68 2-7. 77 2-8. 78 2-9. - 4 79 2-10. G20 80 2-11. 82 3-1. Mos et al.(2011) 90 3-2. OECD 92 3-3. 95 3-4. 96 3-5. 96 3-6. : 98 3-7. : 99 3-8. 103 3-9. 104
-
3-10. 105 3-11. 105 3-12. 106 3-13. 106 3-14. (): 10% 108 3-15. (): , 10% 110 3-16. WTO TRQ 115 3-17. TRQ 118 3-18. TRQ TRQ (2002~11 ) 120 3-19. 125 3-20. TRQ 127 3-21. TRQ () 128 3-22. 130 3-23. 131 3-24. 132 3-25. 133 3-26. 133 3-27. / 134 3-28. 134 3-29. 135 3-30. 137 3-31. : () 138 3-32. : () 138 3-33. (1995~2011) 141 3-34. 5 (2009~11) 143 3-35. G20 (, ) 144
-
3-36. (1) 145 3-37. (2) 145 3-38. (): 30% (, EU )
147 3-39. (): 30% (, EU )
147 4-1. 151 4-2. 153 4-3. 154 4-4. 155 4-5. () 158 5-1. , , 167 5-2. / 171 5-3. TRQ (2008~12 5 ) 174 5-4. G33 177 5-5. AMS (1995~2008) 178 5-6. (1995~2004) 180 5-7. 181 5-8. OECD DAC 187 5-9. G20 , 190
-
1-1. 32 2-1. TRQ 62 2-2. 85 3-1. 91 3-2. TRQ : 116 3-3. TRQ : 117 5-1. : OECD 165
2-1. TRQ (TRQ Underfilled Mechanism) 70
-
1 25
1
1. 2. 3. 4.
DDA
-
26DDA
1.
2001 11 (Doha) DDA 12 2004 . DDA 2013 (Bali) 9 WTO (MC9: The 9th Ministerial Conference) (development) . ( ) WTO DDA WTO .
DDA 2012 . 2008 7 (2009 2011 12 (MC7 MC8) )1) 2012 DDA DDA .
1) 2009 12 2011 12 DDA 2 , .
-
1 27
DDA , DDA .2)
2013 1 (WEF: World Economic Forum). WTO DDA , DDA DDA .
. WTO (early harvest) .
(TF: Trade Facilitation) 2009 12 () . 2011 .
(), TRQ (TRQ administration)
2) DDA WTO . DDA .
-
28DDA
, . TRQ 2012 9 G20 UR ( ) TRQ (underfill) . (Cairns Group) .
G33 . 2008 .3) , G33 . 2005 2013 .
(development) 2005 (LDCs: Least Developed Countries) (DFQF: Duty-Free Quota-Free) . , . DDA
3) WTO .
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1 29
9 WTO (MC9) 2013 3 . . , , , , DDA .4)
3 (, , ) WTO () WTO . GATT WTO . ,5) .
. DDA ,
4) DDA .
5) WTO 2012 , , , , , 7 , , , , , , , 8 . W TO, International Trade Statistics 2013.
-
30DDA
. WTO .
2.
, DDA () .
, . . . .
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1 31
, ?
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, WTO () ?
, ?
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3.
( 1-1). 2 . , TRQ , () , DDA , . 3 .
3 4 . 3 .
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32DDA
(1) , ,
(2)
(3)
(4)
: .
1-1.
, . 4 , CGE . , WTO () . .
5 . . .
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1 33
4.
.
1)
Mos et al. (2011) Hufbauer and Schott(2013) (World Economic Forum, 2013) . Mos et al.(2011) DDA , 25 OECD . Mos et al.(2011) , , , 10% .
Mos and Sorescu(2013) Mos et al.(2011) 106 . 14.5%, 15.5%, 13.2% .
Hufbauer and Schott(2013) , GDP . 1 , GDP 0.9 .
-
34DDA
(WEF: World Economic Forum, 2013)6) . , GDP 4.7% 2.6 1 3,700 . GDP 2.6% ( 1.5 ) .
Wilson et al.(2004) , , , . 75 3,770 .
Zaki(2010) (Dynamic) CGE . (ad valorem tariff equivalents) CGE . .
Otsuki(2011)7) . Otsuki , (border element) (inside the border elements)
6) Hufbauer and Schott(2013), p. 13 .7) Otsuki Tsunehiro(2011), Quantifying the Benefits of Trade Facilitation in ASEAN,
OSIPP Discussion Paper: DP-2011-E-006.
-
1 35
. 5% 1.6 . 7,164 .
(2006) . (2006) (LPI: Logistics Performance Index) . APEC , . CGE . 1.34% 8.18% GDP .
2) TRQ
TRQ UR TRQ (1994) . TRQ TRQ TRQ .
TRQ (2000) . TRQ .
-
36DDA
. TRQ . (IATRC: International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium 2001) TRQ TRQ GATT TRQ .
Abbott and Morse(2000), Skully(2001) . Abbott and Morse(2000) 14 TRQ , UR TRQ TRQ . Skully(2001) TRQ DDA TRQ .
Lim and Babula(2013) DDA TRQ . TRQ . TRQ Li and Carter(2009) . Li and Carter(2009) TRQ , TRQ (in-quota tariff) TRQ .
-
1 37
Li and Carter(2009) Monnich(2003) EU (tobit) TRQ TRQ . TRQ .
3)
Bouet et al.(2010) . Bouet et al.(2010) MIRAGE CGE . OECD 100% 0.08~13% . 0.03~2.7% .
(2011) . (2011) . (SMART: single market, partial equilibrium trade simulation) CGE 0.02~0.03% GDP , 0.001~0.004% .
-
38DDA
4) ()
) Kerkela
et al.(2006) . GTAP , , . ,8) .9) .10)
Peters et al.(2006) (UNCTAD) (ATPSM) EU 175 . 50% ( ) 2.1% , 2.9% .
Elberhi and Leetmaa(2002) CGE . EU
8) .9) (-9%), (-2.85)
. 10) ,
, (Mercosur) , , .
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1 39
. (, , ) .11)
Conforti and Velazquez(2004) GTAP EU . 45% , , , , .
) Sumner(2003) . Sumner
(2003) FAPRI 12) 613) , . 27.4%, 42.8% 11.6% .
11) . , .
12) FAPRI(Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) , FAPRI .
13) (marketing loan), (production flexibility contract payments) (direct payments), (market loss assistance payments and the counter-cyclical payments), (crop insurance subsidies), Step-2 payments to buyers of U.S. cotton, (export credit guarantee subsidies).
-
40DDA
Traore(2011) (ARDL: Autoregressive Distributed Lag) . 1% 0.11% .
Alston, Sumner, and Brunke(2007) , , (ROW) 3 , 4 . 614% , 4 4,3201 490 .
Reeves et al.(2002) . GTAP , , . ( 0.5% ) ( 15.9% ) .14)
14) 1( ) 0.5% , 0.3% , 3.3% , ROW 1.2% . 2( , ) 15.9% , 19.5% , 44.2% , ROW 13.4% .
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. . TRQ, , 4 .
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() . WTO 1995 , CGE () . WTO WTO .
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1)
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: WTO(2004), Modalities for Negotiations on Trade Facilitation(: 2013. 3. 4).
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GATT 5( ), 8( ), 10( ) (TA/CB: Technical Assistance/Capacity Building), . GATT 5( ) 3 , , .18)
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2006 DDA , 2007 DDA . 2009 12 2010 (clean text) . 2011 (facilitator) 2 850 650 .23)
2013 Friends of Chair (FoC) .24) FoC .
21) (2004), p. 18.22) (2010), p. 106.23) Washington Trade Daily(2013), Re-Sparkling TF, Volume 22, Number 51.(March 12).24) Section II FoC, Section I
10, 6~9 11, 1~5 12 FoC.
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1~5 GATT 10 . , , , , . 6~10 GATT 8 , , , , , . 11 GATT 5 , , , , , TBT , , . 12 , , , , , .
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2013 10 GATT 10 8 . 26) .
GATT 10 (1) . (2.1) . (3) , , .
25) WTO(2013a) (2011 11~2013 10) .
26) . shall , shall to the extent possible, shall within its available resources, may, endeavor to .
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EU (7.7) . (8), (10.5), (10.6) , .
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27) .
28) (Single Window) , , .
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2 A/B/C , A , B/C . D , , B/C .
2004 7 D / , . A , B/C
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D - D - D
A - -
B/C
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- B: , 1 . (inadvertently)
- C: . TA/CB, , C
- 1 C TA/CB, (additional arrangement) , ()
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B/C
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2-4.
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2. TRQ
. TRQ
TRQ . TRQ (TRQ TRQ ) (in-quota tariff) . TRQ (out-quota tariff) . .
TRQ [ 2-1] . 2 . (=1) TRQ(= ) , TRQ(= ) TRQ .
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TRQ () . [ 2-1] (=0). .
t
: Skully(2001). p. 2.
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, (=) TRQ ( )
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2 TRQ ( ) (=) . TRQ . TRQ TRQ .31) . TRQ t (Quota Rent) . . TRQ ( ) , TRQ .
[ 2-1] () (=) TRQ , . TRQ t .
31) .
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TRQ TRQ TRQ . TRQ , TRQ TRQ TRQ .
. DDA
1) TRQ UR (tariffication)
. UR . TRQ . / . TRQ .
UR
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TRQ TRQ . TRQ UR .
, , DDA TRQ TRQ . TRQ TRQ , TRQ .
, , EU, , UR TRQ , TRQ .
DDA TRQ . TRQ TRQ . TRQ TRQ .
DDA TRQ .
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TRQ .
2) G20 TRQ 32)
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, . , .33)
( ) Section II TRQ , . G20 TRQ , .
32) 2 , Understanding on TRQ administration provisions of Agricultural Products, as defined in Article 2 of the AoA(September 28, 2012).
33) (UR) , UR .
-
2 67
) G20 TRQ 4
. TRQ 65% . TRQ 3 TRQ 65% TRQ .
1994 (UR Agreement on Import Licensing Procedures) TRQ TRQ 90 , TRQ 30~60 . TRQ .
1 1994 UR ( ) TRQ TRQ UR . UR TRQ .
2 TRQ . TRQ TRQ 90( ) , TRQ () . 9 TRQ .
-
68DDA
G20 TRQ 4 UR 1 115
TRQ 2 116 TRQ 3 117 TRQ 4 118 TRQ 5 119 TRQ 6 120 TRQ 7 121 TRQ (1) 8 122 TRQ (2) 9 123 TRQ (3) 10 124 TRQ 11 . TRQ 12 125
TRQ 1~5 E 1~5: (2013a), p. 10.
2-6. G20 TRQ 4
3 TRQ . 4 TRQ (: ) 30 , 60 . 5 TRQ TRQ . TRQ () TRQ .
6 TRQ , 7 TRQ TRQ ,
-
2 69
TRQ .
8 TRQ . 9 TRQ 65% 100% TRQ . 10 TRQ . 11 WTO TRQ , 12 .
TRQ 65% , TRQ (tracking register) . 2 TRQ 65% TRQ , TRQ . TRQ TRQ , 2 ( 2-1 ).
-
70DDA
TRQ 3 65% 3 TRQ ,
i) TRQ 40% 3 TRQ 8% (5.3%)
ii) TRQ 40% 3 TRQ 12% (8%) ,
TRQ ,
(first-come, first-served only basis at border) (an automatic, unconditional license on demand system) TRQ .
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.
G20 TRQ . G20 TRQ , . G20 TRQ , .
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. 2019 12 WTO (6) G20 TRQ 12 , B . B 34) . .
34) B , , , .
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.
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2005 WTO 2008 (developed-country Members, and developing-country Members declaring themselves in a position to do so)36) , 97% .37)
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36) WTO(2005), p. F-1, LDCs.37) WTO(2005), p. F-1.
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.
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UR . 6 (2000 ) 36%, 21%
-
78DDA
. 10 (2004 ) 24%, 14% . WTO 25 300 ( 2-8 ).
(5), (1)(13), (11)
(11)-(5)EU(20), (2)
(9)(16)
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2-8.
) DDA DDA 13
. WTO . , . EU, , . .
2005 2013 . 2008
-
2 79
. 4 2013 2010 50% . 2016 , ( 2-9).
2013 , 2010 50%,
2010 50% 2013 200305
2016 , 9.4 5 ,
2-9. - 4
: WTO(2008b), Revised Draft Modalities for Agriculture (TN/AG/W/4/Rev.4) .
) G20 G20 4
2013 5 .41) 2013 50% , . 9.442) .
41) WTO(2013d).42) 1 (,
, , ) ( ) . ( 2013, , : 2013. 7. 3).
-
80DDA
G20 1 G20
: 2013 : 2016 : 2013 50% : 2016 25%
9.4
9.4 2021 1)
5 2)
180.3) 360 , 4 180
540. 1,080 , 3 540 4)
1) 2021 . 2) 5 . 3) 180 . 4) 1,080 2 900 , 3 540 .: WTO(2013d), Inside U.S. Trade, 06/28/2013,Revised G20 Text Requires Export Subsidy Cut by
Developing Countries .
2-10. G20
G20 EU .43) G20 (balance) . G20 EU 2016 25% .
2)
G20 EU
43) , EU .
-
2 81
. . EU . . , .
.
1) DDA
2003 4(C-4, Cotton-4: , , , )44) . 2003 C4
44) . 40% 250 , 1/3 . 60% , 25 . 60% , 45% . 40% , 2/3 .
-
82DDA
45) . 2004 7 (Cotton Sub-Committee) , .46)
2001 11 2003 5 4 Sectoral initiative on cotton 2003 6 WTO case 2003 9 : 2004 3 WTO () 2004 7 : 2004 11 WTO 2005 12 : 2006 3 4, 2007 3 WTO
2008 7 Quadrilateral (, C-4, EU, ) - . 2008 7
.
: A Fairtrade Foundation Report, November 2010,The great cotton stitch-up, pp. 26-27 .
2-11.
45) .
46) 4 , EU , .
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WTO . WTO . 80% . . WTO . .
.
2005 . 2005 2006 , DDA , WTO .
4 . 82.2% . DDA 10 , EU, , 180 (EU: 39 , : 18 , : 112 , 11 ), 62% .47)
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84DDA
[ 2-1]
Rc: , Rg: AMS
2)
DDA C4 . 30% . 2005 , .
. . DDA , DDA .
. , .
47) WTO .
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2 85
( 2-2).
WTO
(- WTO)
WCA
WCA
, , , (C-4)
WTO
: WCA Western and Cental Africa .: John Baffes(2011), p. 1,542.
2-2.
, .
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. DDA . CGE . TRQ . CGE . () WTO GTAP .
1.
.
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48) Freund(2010) , , . Otsuki(2011) , , , , , , , , , . Protugal- Perez and Wilson(2012) 18
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3 89
.49) OECD 2011 DDA
. DDA 1 1~12 11 , (governance) 50) 12 ( 3-1).51) 12 98 . 98 .52)
(scale) 0, 1, 2, . Mos et al.(2013) 106
(hard infrastructure) (ICT), (soft infrastructure) , . (2011) (LPI: Logistics Performance Index) . LPI , , , , 6 .
49) OECD(2013b) .50) Mos et al.(2011)
.
51) , , , (missing data) . 4 .
52) 50% 14 .
-
90DDA
1 2 3 4 5 , 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
a. (1, 2,11)b. (2, 11)c. (3)d. (4)e. (6, 11)f. (7, 10, 11)g. (7, 10, 11)h. (5, 7, 10, 11)i. (9.1, 11)j. (9.3, 11, 12)k. (8)l.
: Mos et al.(2011), p. 9 .
3-1. Mos et al.(2011)
. OECD DDA
. , , , .
, EU, , , [ 3-1] . , . , , , , , , .
-
3 91
2
EU
21.81.61.41.2
10.80.60.40.2
0
: 1. EU 28 , , , , , 22 .
2. . : OECD(2013b), Trade Facilitation Indicators(: 2013. 7. 22) .
3-1.
EU 28 . , , .
, , , . , , . , , , ,
-
92DDA
. , , , , .
, , . , , .
2.0 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.5 2.0 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 EU 1.5 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.6
1.4 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.7 N.A 1.0 2.0 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.9 1.6 1.5
1.6 1.8 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 N.A 2.0 0.5 1.5 1.4 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.4 LDC 0.5 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.6
1.6 1.8 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.8 : 4 CGE .: OECD(2013b), Trade Facilitation Indicators(: 2013. 7. 22) .
3-2. OECD
.
1)
WTO
-
3 93
, , (ADB 2009, p. 3) (2006, p. 88) , . . .
, . . , 18 .
[ 3-1] .
ln ln ln ln
ln
[ 3-1]
[ 3-1] , ln , (average applied
-
94DDA
tariff), 11 . ln , , 1 .
[ 3-1] , [ 3-1] Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga(2009, p. 175) .
[ 3-1] [ 3-2] , .
ln ln ln ln
ln
[ 3-2]
Kee, Nicita, and Olarreaga(2009, p. 176) [ 3-2] , .
World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS) UN Comtrade , World Bank CEPII, UNESCAP , WITS GTAP
-
3 95
, 18 . [ 3-3] .
11 [ 3-4] . , . [0, 2] (-) (linear transformation), .
1 -2.297 10 -1.697 2 -2.573 11 -1.771 3 -0.796 12 -1.278 4 -1.628 13 -1.151 5 -7.566 14 -8.861 6 -1.173 15 -0.920 7 -1.008 16 -1.304 8 -7.286 17 -1.317 9 , -1.524 18 -9.062
3-3.
: WITS .
-
96DDA
TFI(1) TFI(7) TFI(2) TFI(8) TFI(3) TFI(9) TFI(4) TFI(10) TFI(5) TFI(11) TFI(6)
: OECD(2013b), Trade Facilitation lndicators(: 2013. 7. 22) ; Mois and Sorescu(2013), pp. 39-51, Annex 1.
3-4.
[ 3-5] .
TFI (1) TFI (2) TFI (3) TFI (4) TFI (5) TFI (6) TFI (7) TFI (8) TFI (9) TFI (10) TFI (11)TFI (1) 1.00 TFI (2) 0.18 1.00 TFI (3) 0.05 0.31 1.00 TFI (4) 0.24 0.08 0.18 1.00 TFI (5) -0.03 0.12 0.01 0.15 1.00 TFI (6) 0.04 0.25 0.19 0.06 0.40 1.00 TFI (7) -0.02 0.07 0.34 0.03 -0.09 -0.02 1.00 TFI (8) 0.34 0.39 0.14 0.23 -0.03 0.02 0.07 1.00 TFI (9) 0.12 0.25 0.30 0.13 0.18 0.41 0.32 0.00 1.00 TFI (10) 0.21 0.51 0.32 0.09 0.15 0.36 -0.01 0.29 0.25 1.00 TFI (11) 0.15 0.15 0.35 0.27 0.02 0.21 -0.03 0.09 0.31 0.10 1.00 : OECD(2013b), Trade Facilitation Indicators(: 2013. 7. 22) .
3-5.
-
3 97
2)
[ 3-6] [ 3-7] . [ 3-6] , , , , , , , [ 3-7] , , , , , , , , .
, , GDP , (+) , (-) . GDP , GDP (-) , . , , , .
Mos et al.(2013) . Mos et al.(2013) , , , , (Mos et al. 2013, p. 11).
-
98DDA
-0.68*** -0.42*** -0.27* -0.32*** -1.19*** -0.03 -1.31*** -1.07*** GDP 0.54*** 1.09*** 0.34*** 0.52*** 1.03*** 0.30*** 1.05*** 1.05*** GDP 0.35*** 0.79*** 0.60*** 0.69*** 0.76*** -0.35* 1.20*** 0.81***
1.65*** 1.60*** 3.07*** 1.84*** 1.74*** 0.72 2.34*** 1.63*** -0.05 0.60** 0.34 -0.00 -0.39** -0.83* -0.31* -0.40*** -0.02 -3.73*** -0.3 -0.47* -1.14*** 0.21 -0.63** -1.12*** 0.23 -0.2 -0.41 -0.05 0.01 0.2 0.12 0.03
0.1 -0.2 0.26 0.61*** -0.48*** -0.23 0.08 -0.18* 0.18 0.03 0.47** -0.09 0.09 -0.67 0.12 0.05 0.32 -0.18 -0.04 0 -0.29* 0.9 0.1 0.02
-0.04 0.96*** 0.99*** -0.02 0.18 -0.8 0.12 0.20* 0.47* 0.69*** -0.38 0.22 0.58*** 0.61 0.21 0.66*** -0.23 2.23*** -0.99* -0.15 -0.09 -1.06 -0.19 0.18 0.04 2.35*** 0.14 -0.09 1.16*** 1.96* -0.82*** -0.23 0.22 0.42 1.12*** -0.09 0.44*** -1.06** 0.19 0.35***
0.90*** 1.92*** 0.79*** 0.27** 1.00*** 0.64 0.36** 0.77*** -13.18*** -36.13*** -19.48*** -23.00*** -31.02*** 4.64 -41.53*** -31.33*** 1471 1887 1196 2767 2326 312 2758 3384
R2 0.14 0.22 0.12 0.20 0.37 0.06 0.39 0.47: *, **, *** 10%, 5%, 1% .: .
3-6. :
, , , , , (+) . Mos et al.(2013) Annex 1 , , , , , , , 7 10 .
-
3 99
-1.36*** -1.69*** -1.66*** -1.75*** -1.33*** -1.22*** -1.45*** -1.59*** -1.20*** -1.35***
GDP 1.17*** 1.36*** 1.52*** 1.52*** 1.02*** 1.59*** 1.58*** 1.64*** 1.32*** 1.14***
GDP 0.93*** 0.93*** 0.99*** 1.04*** 1.16*** 0.84*** 0.84*** 0.88*** 0.86*** 1.05***
1.50*** 1.61*** 1.24*** 1.38*** 1.39*** 1.09*** 0.55** 0.83*** 1.11*** 0.08 -0.32** -0.45*** 0.05 0.04 -0.42** 0.04 0.13 -0.1 -0.24** -0.13
-0.25 -0.59*** -0.92*** -0.69*** -0.61*** -0.89*** -0.18 -0.58*** -0.44** -0.16
0.09 0.36*** 0.21** 0.25** 0.1 0.29*** 0.15 0.36*** 0.01 -0.51* 0.27** 0.18 0.22** 0.11 0.01 0.17 0.07 0.21** 0.1 -0.45** -0.11 0.02 0.09 0.18** -0.05 -0.1 -0.16* -0.07 -0.20*** -0.33 0.25** 0.1 0.28*** 0.14 -0.02 0.03 0.25** 0.13 0.13 0.05
-0.25* -0.12 0.14 0.04 0.49*** 0.35** 0.33** 0.12 0.31** -0.01
0.06 0.17 0.19* -0.07 -0.51*** 0.21* -0.19 0.1 -0.07 -0.14
-0.16 -0.03 -0.34** -0.23 -1.18*** -0.28 -1.23*** -0.09 -0.49*** -0.35
-0.48** -0.95*** -1.14*** -0.97*** 0.16 0.01 -0.44* -0.79*** -0.13 0.94
-0.22* 0.13 0.32*** 0.30*** 0.22 0.04 0.23* 0.11 0.03 0.06
0.73*** 0.63*** 0.86*** 0.50*** 0.44*** 0.49*** 0.34** 0.21** 0.43*** 0.33 -35.89*** -38.36*** -42.41*** -44.46*** -38.11*** -45.39*** -44.27*** -43.73*** -40.47*** -35.88*** 3616 3652 3944 3377 2427 3039 3139 3742 3438 837
R2 0.5 0.57 0.63 0.6 0.43 0.57 0.54 0.66 0.55 0.66: *, **, *** 10%, 5%, 1% .: .
3-7. :
-
100DDA
10 , , . , , , 1 2 .
, , , .
, . , 0.06~ 0.47 0.5~0.66 . .
3)
(TE) . .
-
3 101
.53)
ln [ 3-3]
ln [ 3-4]
ln
[ 3-5]
[ 3-3]~[ 3-5] n , [ 3-6] .
exp
[ 3-6]
, [ 3-7] .
53) , , . , , .
-
102DDA
[ 3-7]
(TE) . [ 4] . .54)
[ 3-8] . . .
54) Kee et al.(2009) . .
ln ln
ln ln
ln
Kee et al.(2009) . , Kee et al.(2009) , , . () Kee et al.(2009) , .
-
3 103
EU, .
EU 28
- 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24
2.08 - 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08
2.30 2.40 - 2.37 2.70 2.46 2.47 2.05 2.66 2.36
1.11 1.06 1.05 - 1.10 1.06 1.10 1.18 0.85 1.06
EU 28 1.44 1.76 1.68 1.66 - 1.65 1.85 1.81 1.25 1.77
1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98 - 1.98 1.98 1.98 1.98
0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.58 - 0.58 0.58 0.58
3.10 2.98 3.13 2.73 3.04 3.06 2.74 - 3.04 3.09
2.69 2.19 2.14 2.16 2.09 2.43 2.33 1.87 - 2.36
0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 -
3-8. (: %)
: 1. (), . 2. , , . 3. 0 0 ,
. : .
[ 3-9] . . EU . EU 28
-
104DDA
. . ( 3-10).
EU 28
- 18.20 18.20 18.20 18.20 18.20 18.20 18.20 18.20 18.20
14.79 - 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79 14.79
17.73 17.86 - 17.80 18.23 18.48 18.08 18.18 21.09 17.14
14.31 14.31 14.81 - 14.50 14.31 14.31 16.20 14.81 14.31
EU 28 17.34 17.34 17.86 17.60 - 18.18 18.93 18.39 18.03 17.34
20.66 20.66 20.66 20.66 20.66 - 20.66 20.66 20.66 20.66
11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 11.15 - 11.15 11.15 11.15
23.26 21.88 22.67 22.72 23.92 22.74 20.44 - 18.20 22.60
16.91 16.74 17.36 16.61 16.43 19.54 15.09 18.04 - 16.91
14.56 14.56 14.56 14.56 14.56 14.56 14.56 14.56 14.56 -
3-9. (: %)
: 1. (), . 2. , , . 3. 0 0 ,
. : .
-
3 105
EU 28
- 18.79 18.79 18.79 18.79 18.79 18.79 18.79 18.79 18.79 15.30 - 15.30 15.30 15.30 15.30 15.30 15.30 15.30 15.30
18.40 18.26 - 18.35 18.73 18.26 18.26 18.07 19.96 18.40 14.66 14.66 14.87 - 14.66 14.66 14.66 15.17 14.63 14.66
EU 28 17.85 17.85 18.30 18.09 - 17.85 17.85 18.62 18.40 17.85 21.25 21.25 21.25 21.25 21.25 - 21.25 21.25 21.25 21.25 11.39 11.39 11.39 11.39 11.39 11.39 - 11.39 11.39 11.39
22.56 22.93 23.09 23.43 23.33 22.93 24.79 - 23.00 22.93 15.99 17.47 18.25 18.34 16.88 17.29 19.97 19.23 - 17.47 14.88 14.88 14.88 14.88 14.88 14.88 14.88 14.88 14.88 -
3-10. (: %)
: 1. (), . 2. , , . 3. 0 0 ,
. : .
EU 28
- 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 43.75 - 43.75 43.75 43.75 43.75 43.75 43.75 43.75 43.75
58.70 57.82 - 58.33 58.02 57.82 57.82 57.34 62.69 57.82 55.37 55.37 55.81 - 55.37 55.37 55.37 57.33 55.91 55.37
EU 28 63.23 63.23 65.57 63.45 - 63.23 63.23 66.60 65.13 63.23 76.88 76.88 76.88 76.88 76.88 - 76.88 76.88 76.88 76.88 43.75 43.75 43.75 43.75 43.75 43.75 - 43.75 43.75 43.75
70.55 70.55 72.51 71.88 71.14 70.55 70.55 - 78.36 70.55 57.46 57.46 60.83 57.65 56.48 57.46 57.46 65.88 - 57.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 59.46 -
3-11. (: %)
: 1. (), . 2. , , . 3. 0 0 ,
. : .
-
106DDA
EU 28
- 64.95 64.95 64.95 64.95 64.95 64.95 64.95 64.95 64.95 50.13 - 50.13 50.13 50.13 50.13 50.13 50.13 50.13 50.13
67.75 65.38 - 66.19 66.59 65.38 65.38 64.66 73.67 65.38 62.32 62.32 61.76 - 62.44 62.32 62.32 63.37 65.68 62.32
EU 28 70.51 70.51 72.95 70.64 - 70.51 70.51 75.98 70.27 70.51 83.91 83.91 83.91 83.91 83.91 - 83.91 83.91 83.91 83.91 47.87 47.87 47.87 47.87 47.87 47.87 - 47.87 47.87 47.87
80.58 80.58 84.86 81.31 82.48 80.58 80.58 - 101.01 80.58 62.63 62.63 66.98 63.84 60.45 62.63 62.63 69.86 - 62.63 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 68.97 -
3-12. (: %)
: 1. (), . 2. , , . 3. 0 0 ,
. : .
EU 28
- 30.11 30.11 30.11 30.11 30.11 30.11 30.11 30.11 30.11 32.64 - 32.64 32.64 32.64 32.64 32.64 32.64 32.64 32.64
38.18 38.02 - 37.91 38.00 38.02 38.02 37.81 36.52 38.02 35.78 35.78 35.32 - 35.78 35.78 35.78 35.57 33.73 35.78
EU 28 36.92 36.92 39.52 36.80 - 36.92 36.92 41.96 39.78 36.92 37.17 37.17 37.17 37.17 37.17 - 37.17 37.17 37.17 37.17 23.27 23.27 23.27 23.27 23.27 23.27 - 23.27 23.27 23.27
55.05 49.75 50.35 49.62 49.51 49.75 49.75 - 49.72 49.75 23.04 27.24 26.48 27.23 26.04 27.24 27.24 25.05 - 27.24 47.38 47.38 47.38 47.38 47.38 47.38 47.38 47.38 47.38 -
3-13. (: %)
: 1. (), . 2. , , . 3. 0 0 ,
. : .
-
3 107
[ 3-11] [ 3-13] . , EU . . , .
.
CGE . . (SAM) 55) 10~20% .56)
55) CGE ( GTAP SAM ) , 18 14 SAM SAM . GTAP 10 SAM ( ). . SAM .
56) .
-
108DDA
GDP
(%) ( ) ( )
(%, )
(%, ) 0.33 63,854 60,358 0.40 0.53
EU 28 0.97 188,312 152,409 0.05 0.54 6.02 223,989 194,359 6.84 5.34 4.28 90,156 78,939 1.31 1.78
0.65 5,980 1,290 1.60 5.95 0.69 7,630 6,619 0.76 0.62
12.80 49,445 43,684 16.08 16.06 0.80 70,502 50,813 0.11 0.51 11.16 670,995 599,658 5.76 6.77
3.33 12,826 6456 15.83 15.31 : .
3-14. (): 10%
( 3-14). GDP .
GDP 0.3% EU 0.8~1.0% GDP . EU 15 13 , .
. .
-
3 109
. GDP . GDP 6.0~6.3% GDP . GDP .
GDP 57) 3,227 GDP 2,686 . 1 GDP 9,284 . 20% GDP 10% . .
[ 3-15] . , , .58) EU , .
57) , EU, . 58) ( )
, . CGE .
-
110DDA
.
. . . , . , .
EU 28
GRAI 7.56 0.84 2.66 2.13 12.04 0.43 6.11 -1.50 4.72 -8.79 VGOL -87.81 -43.81 -5.06 -7.66 134.47 -7.49 -27.47 -62.65 -67.17 37.06 SUGA -0.55 -2.61 2.34 3.46 -7.03 2.94 -6.37 -1.53 1.36 10.12 OTAG 9.39 -1.63 -1.64 1.89 14.26 -0.84 -3.13 -3.90 4.61 -4.00 LIST 2.85 1.68 3.73 2.70 15.04 0.98 10.17 1.75 7.13 -8.00 DAIR 2.42 2.65 2.88 4.15 0.52 1.36 2.84 3.80 5.71 7.85 EXTR -6.11 -15.48 -5.39 -6.42 -39.90 -5.55 -4.85 -10.47 -4.56 4.04 FDBV 2.29 2.93 3.99 3.14 4.44 3.03 7.37 3.31 7.36 -6.72 TXCL 1.41 0.02 4.60 2.96 11.24 4.81 2.55 3.58 5.99 18.53
WOOD 0.07 0.55 4.08 1.07 13.18 0.58 -0.12 0.51 3.81 2.99 CHEM 0.53 -0.75 0.64 3.24 2.02 1.63 -4.14 2.89 0.89 -8.49 STME -2.22 -3.85 3.82 1.32 10.65 0.49 -15.07 -0.94 -6.75 2.43 OTME -42.76 -59.58 -16.78 -29.81 241.44 -127.08 74.24 -64.15 53.67 31.16 VEHI 2.79 2.49 4.68 3.29 20.73 4.24 5.82 2.89 6.93 -6.78 ELEC -3.45 -9.29 7.79 -1.11 7.72 10.01 -9.58 -0.47 10.38 -4.22 MACH -0.88 -2.59 3.97 0.61 14.93 4.76 -19.97 1.88 -0.76 23.72 OTMA 1.01 -0.31 3.93 5.58 3.09 3.02 0.50 2.97 8.39 -1.13
3-15. (): , 10%
: GRAI(), VGOL( , ), SUGA(), OTAG( ), LIST(), DAIR(), EXTR(), FDBV(). TXCL( ), WOOD(), CHEM(), STME(), OTME( ), VEHI( ), ELEC(), MACH(), OTMA( ) .
-
3 111
. . CGE .59) .
2. TRQ
. TRQ
1) TRQ
) (applied tariff) TRQ TRQ
. . TRQ , TRQ .
TRQ . TRQ
59) (OTHE) , (SUGA) . , CGE .
-
112DDA
. TRQ . TRQ (out-quota tariff) .
) (FCFS: First-come, first-served) TRQ
, TRQ . , . .
TRQ TRQ , TRQ . (In-quota tariff) (out-quota tariff) . TRQ . G20 .
-
3 113
) (Licences on demand) TRQ
TRQ . TRQ . TRQ TRQ . TRQ . . (: rent seeking activity) .
) (Historical importer)TRQ
. () . () . WTO TRQ 9% .
) (Auction) TRQ
TRQ . TRQ
-
114DDA
, TRQ TRQ . TRQ (Non-productive rent seeking behavior) , TRQ .
) (State trading enterprises) TRQ
WTO TRQ 2% . . , , . .
) (Producer group) TRQ TRQ ,
. WTO TRQ 1% . . TRQ ,
-
3 115
1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1. (AT) 654(51.9)639
(46.8)538
(45.8)537
(45.9)498
(45.7)498
(45.7)497
(45.6)497
(45.6)476
(43.6)
2. (FC) 101(8.0)153
(11.2)122
(10.4)122
(10.4)76
(7.0)76
(7.0)79
(7.1)81
(7.2)81
(7.2)
3. (LD) 290(23.0)297
(21.8)226
(19.3)225
(19.2)225
(20.7)225
(20.7)226
(20.7)227
(20.8)226
(20.7)
4. (AU) 41(3.3)52
(3.8)71
(6.0)71
(6.1)73
(6.7)73
(6.7)73
(6.7)73
(6.7)94
(8.6)
5. (HI) 68(5.4)119(8.7)
89(7.6)
89(7.6)
89(8.2)
89(8.2)
89(8.2)
89(8.2)
89(8.2)
6. (ST) 22(1.7)20
(1.5)26
(2.2)27
(2.3)26
(2.4)26
(2.4)26
(2.4)26
(2.4)27
(2.5)
7. (PG) 8(0.6)9
(0.7)6
(0.5)7
(0.6)7
(0.6)7
(0.6)7
(0.6)7
(0.6)7
(0.6)
8. (MX) 54(4.3)60
(4.4)87
(7.4)84
(7.2)83
(7.6)82
(7.5)83
(7.6)83
(7.6)84
(7.7)
7. (NT) 9(0.7)7
(0.5)5
(0.4)5
(0.4)8
(0.7)9
(0.8)9
(0.7)6
(0.5)6
(0.5)
8. (OT) 12(1.0)9
(0.7)4
(0.3)4
(0.3)4
(0.4)4
(0.4)4
(0.4)4
(0.4)4
(0.4)
1,259(100.0)1,365(100.0)
1,174(100.0)
1,171(100.0)
1,089(100.0)
1,090(100.0)
1,093(100.0)
1,093(100.0)
1,094(100.0)
: ( ) .: WTO(2002); WTO(2012a) .
3-16. WTO TRQ
.60)
2) TRQ
WTO TRQ 1995 1,259 2003~04 1,434 2011 1,094. TRQ
60) TRQ 7 (Mixed allocation) .
-
116DDA
476 44% , TRQ . 226 21% . 7%(81 ), 9%(94 ), 8%(89 ), 8%(84 ) , TRQ 1~3% .
TRQ . . .
TRQ TRQ . , TRQ .
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
(AT) (FC) (LD)
: .
3-2. TRQ :
-
3 117
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(AU) (HI) (ST) (MX)
: .
3-3. TRQ :
3) TRQ (Fill-up rate)
) TRQ TRQ () TRQ
, TRQ TRQ TRQ .
2002~11 TRQ 70% , 68%, 65%, TRQ 63% . TRQ 57~59% .
-
118DDA
TRQ TRQ TRQ , TRQ .
TRQ , TRQ .
2002~11 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
71 68 63 63 69 69 73 72 73 68 56 60 49 48 58 39 40 28 27 43
58 51 55 60 57 58 56 59 86 59 26 32 59 64 63 61 57 62 64 59
91 58 63 63 63 61 58 44 32 57 81 72 75 71 74 73 69 54 - 70 74 83 47 63 60 62 56 75 - 63
74 44 66 67 66 63 69 64 60 65 100 86 45 45 49 57 49 46 46 47 56 95 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 66 60 62 64 66 64 63 60 61
: .
3-17. TRQ (: %)
TRQ . TRQ
-
3 119
TRQ . TRQ . TRQ TRQ . TRQ .
TRQ TRQ TRQ . TRQ . TRQ .
) TRQ TRQ (100%), (97%), (92%),
(85%) . 61% TRQ . , EU, TRQ , , TRQ .
-
120DDA
(AT)
(FC)
(LD)
(AU)
(HI)
(ST)
(PG)
(OT)
(MX)
(NS)
98 - - - 96 - - - - - 97 100 - - - - - - - - - 100 - 66 70 - 78 100 - 100 98 - 85 - 45 - - - - - - - - 45 87 - - - - - 35 - 61EU - 65 51 - 68 - - - - - 48
- - 57 95 - 98 - - 8 - 65 46 - 42 42 83 93 41 - 81 - 61
78 - 22 46 93 - - - - - 58 83 - 83 95 100 - - - 97 - 92 - - 87 43 - - - - 72 - 61 100 - 34 - - 22 77 - - - 45 - 47 - - - - - - 73 47 55
68 43 59 59 57 70 63 100 65 47: .
3-18. TRQ TRQ (2002~11 )(: %)
. TRQ
1)
TRQ ( ) [ 3-8] .
[ 3-8]
(actual imports), TRQ . (random variable) .
-
3 121
. TRQ , .
[ 3-9]
, , .
. TRQ . TRQ , TRQ . () (), () (POP) . TRQ . 1 ( ) .
TRQ [ 3-10] .
[ 3-10]
-
122DDA
[ 3-10] . 0, 100% 100% 1 . Tobit (double-censored Tobit model) .
i f i f i f
[ 3-11]
Tobit Tobit , [ 3-12] (Maddala 1983).
ln
ln
ln
ln
ln
[ 3-12]
[ 3-12] () () [ 3-13] .
-
3 123
i f i f , i f i f [ 3-13]2)
WTO 2000~12 TRQ TRQ TRQ , [ 3-12] . TRQ TRQ FAO . TRQ (AMAD: Agricultural Market Access Database) . AMAD 1995 WTO WTO TRQ .
3)
, [ 3-12] [ 3-19] . 1 GDP TRQ . Pooled TRQ . . . Pooled
-
124DDA
(-) . . Random Effect . .
, .
TRQ . TRQ . . TRQ TRQ . , () TRQ .
Random Effect (FC) TRQ Pooled TRQ
-
3 125
. Random effect TRQ . TRQ 10% .
Pooled Tobit Random Effect Tobit(AU) 0.844 (12.11)** 1.096 (17.21)**
(FC) 0.243 (5.06)** 0.1010 (5.31)**(HI) 0.188 (3.80)** 0.167 (3.46)**
(LD) 0.487 (10.72)** 0.492 (9.86)**(MX) 0.362 (6.32)** 0.162 (3.13)**
(ST) 0.099 (1.12) 0.806 (9.43)** 0.002 (0.58) 0.003 (0.26)
0.0014 (0.037) 0.0027 (4.34)** 0.0014 (0.37) 0.001 (1.13) 0.001 (5.36)** 0.001 (1.45) 0.0003 (3.49)** 0.005 (2.64)**1 GDP 0.0006 (5.44)** 0.0005 (0.06)
0.0003 (1.80) 0.0081 (1.69) 0.9030 (28.09)** 0.7920 (21.56)**
(Likelihood) -3897.99 -2595.07: 1) ( ) t-value.
2) ** 5% .: .
3-19.
. TRQ
TRQ CGE . G20 TRQ WTO TRQ
-
126DDA
65% . TRQ 65% . , , 65% . 65% , EU TRQ 40% . TRQ . TRQ 2~5 , TRQ TRQ .
EU TRQ . TRQ . TRQ TRQ 3 65% TRQ . TRQ , TRQ .
TRQ . TRQ , , , . TRQ . TRQ , ( ), , , 5 20% .
-
3 127
2009 2010 2011 2009~11 100 100 100 100
100 100 100 100 83 84 77 81 49 0 82 44 62 65 62 63
86 87 88 87EU 43 37 64 48
77 75 73 75 0 1 17 6
90 90 90 90 84 83 83 83 61 56 51 56
100 100 100 100 81 82 79 81 59 59 67 62 95 93 90 93 61 33 32 42 55 46 46 49
: , , 2008~10 , , EU, , 2007~09 .: WTO(2012a) .
3-20. TRQ (: %)
20% TRQ 10% TRQ . G20 65% WTO TRQ .
TRQ 0.101 TRQ
-
128DDA
GDP ( )(%) ( )
0.00 91 90EU 28 0.00 344 379
0.01 1,026 932 1,279 1,401
0.00 133 67 0.00 36 15
0.03 397 465 0.03 320 248
0.00 14 31 0.01 463 317
0.00 42 1 1,333 1,114
: .
3-21. TRQ ()
0.0050 20 . TRQ 10% , 20% . 10% 20% .
TRQ [ 3-21] . TRQ . TRQ GDP .
GDP EU . GDP 0.03% ,
-
3 129
TRQ . TRQ .
3.
.
1) 61)
WTO 34. 31 31 0.5% . 31 2007~11 303 13 596 0.2% ( 3-22).
62) 2007 70% 2011 49% . 2007~11 46%.63) EU, , EU .
61) HS 2007 .62) EU , , , , ,
.63) 2008~09
.
-
130DDA
. , ( 3-23).
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5 - 5,099 4,312 7,200 9,001 5,122
3,531 4,358 4,992 5,590 6,704 5,035 - - 6,259 6,437 6,948 3,929
- 3,121 2,982 4,051 4,735 2,978 - 2,170 2,017 2,161 2,542 1,778
- 1,602 1,618 2,330 2,615 1,633 - - - 7,625 - 1,525 - 1,724 1,568 1,619 2,159 1,414
1,343 1,667 1,096 1,082 1,472 1,332 - 879 1,188 1,066 1,425 912
- - 796 1,288 2,312 879 - 1,918 - 1,996 - 783 - 755 735 667 866 604 - - 886 874 908 534 675 521 496 413 453 512
- - - - 2,458 492 - - 628 484 974 417 - - 261 238 417 183 - - 364 - - 73
- - - 90 104 39 - - 46 70 66 36 - - - 35 95 26 - - - 118 - 24
(%)
5,549 23,815 30,243 45,435 46,253 30,259(0.05) (0.17) (0.27) (0.33) (0.27) (0.22)
11,575 14,146 11,365 13,864 17,028 13,596 : 10 .: UN(2013), Comtrade(: 2013. 7. 2).
3-22. (: , %)
-
3 131
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5 ()
EU 27 1,515(27.3)4,511(18.9)
4,467(14.8)
5,188(11.4)
8,079(17.5)
4,752(15.7)
13(0.2) 3,528(14.8)
3,554(11.8)
6,006(13.2)
7,989(17.3)
4,218(13.9)
2,121(38.2) 2,628(11.0)
2,114(7.0)
2,561(5.6)
2,870(6.2)
2,459(8.1)
12(0.2) 2,362(9.9)
1,161(3.8)
2,583(5.7)
2,141(4.6)
1,652(5.5)
43(0.8) 316(1.3)
642(2.1)
743(1.6)
838(1.8)
517(1.7)
150(2.7) 333(1.4)
252(0.8)
471(1.0)
624(1.3)
366(1.2)
10(0.2) 30(0.1)
76(0.2)
110(0.2)
108(0.2)
67(0.2)
1(0.0) 6(0.0)
13(0.0)
12(0.0)
21(0.0)
11(0.0)
(A) 3,866(69.7) 13,713(57.6)
12,280(40.6)
17,675(38.9)
22,671(49.0)
14,041(46.4)
38(0.7) 805(3.4)
2,927(9.7)
4,630(10.2)
6,145(13.3)
2,909(9.6)
569(10.3) 1,045(4.4)
2,920(9.7)
4,639(10.2)
2,693(5.8)
2,373(7.8)
541(9.8) 894(3.8)
1,821(6.0)
3,141(6.9)
1,389(3.0)
1,557(5.1)
50(0.9) 192(0.8)
1,232(4.1)
3,620(8.0)
1,538(3.3)
1,326(4.4)
169(3.0) 193(0.8)
1,086(3.6)
1,492(3.3)
805(1.7)
749(2.5)
UAE 9(0.2) 329(1.4)
818(2.7)
952(2.1)
697(1.5)
561(1.9)
(B) 1,376(24.8) 3,458(14.5)
10,804(35.7)
18,475(40.7)
13,266(28.7)
9,476(31.3)
(A+B) 5,242(94.5) 17,171(72.1)
23,084(76.3)
36,150(79.6)
35,937(77.7)
23,517(77.7)
5,549(100.0) 23,815(100.0)
30,243(100.0)
45,435(100.0)
46,253(100.0)
30,259(100.0)
: .
3-23. (: , %)
-
132DDA
2)
1. () 1 , , , , 76% .
, , . . EU 75% , EU ( 3-25, 3-26, 3-27, 3-28 ).
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5 ()
383 3,200 8,727 12,066 11,659 7,207(23.8)
93 3,309 2,973 5,694 6,866 3,787(12.5)
/ 2,837 3,739 3,318 3,980 5,046 3,784(12.5)
38 2,472 1,729 6,052 4,657 2,990(9.9)
291 2,642 2,768 4,415 4,289 2,881(9.5)
/ 615 998 2,021 1,803 1,625 1,412(4.7) , , ,
10 1,005 1,144 1,060 1,006 845(2.8)
4,266 17,365 22,680 35,069 35,149 22,906(75.7)
5,549 23,815 30,243 45,435 46,253 30,259(100.0)
3-24. (: , %)
: .
-
3 133
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5
11 346 1,930 2,134 3,809 1,646 22.8
1 1 1,137 3,159 1,269 1,113 15.4
287 272 1,681 2,257 1,042 1,108 15.4
EU 27 59 173 511 531 2,158 686 9.5
0 474 356 312 110 250 3.5
0 2 419 647 27 219 3.0
0 79 396 260 351 217 3.0
2 302 527 126 39 199 2.8
361 1,648 6,958 9,426 8,806 5,440 75.5
383 3,200 8,727 12,066 11,659 7,207 100.0
3-25.
: .
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5
- 1,973 1,710 3,471 4,269 2,285 60.3
0 208 401 1,330 1,331 654 17.3
- 169 117 268 432 197 5.2
EU 27 1 136 102 176 368 157 4.1
- 385 106 49 7 109 2.9
UAE - 28 139 178 65 82 2.2
91 7 71 63 68 60 1.6
92 2,906 2,647 5,536 6,540 3,544 93.6
93 3,309 2,973 5,694 6,866 3,787 100.0
3-26.
: .
-
134DDA
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5 1,872 1,984 1,571 1,800 1,976 1,841 48.6
EU 27 714 840 827 997 1,545 984 26.0
134 186 193 264 362 228 6.0
2 64 94 122 214 99 2.6
9 23 95 124 123 75 2.0
1 12 100 56 111 56 1.5
0 55 35 53 52 39 1.0
7 15 29 45 90 37 1.0
2,740 3,178 2,943 3,462 4,474 3,359 88.8
2,837 3,739 3,318 3,980 5,046 3,784 100.0
3-27. /
: .
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 5 EU 27 185 1,163 992 1,266 1,674 1,056 36.7
14 315 168 770 205 295 10.2
1 92 182 248 266 158 5.5
0 109 210 163 191 135 4.7
25 115 94 127 156 103 3.6
7 101 51 123 233 103 3.6
1 157 95 119 139 102 3.6
17 39 42 217 128 88 3.1
UAE 2 61 52 76 66 51 1.8
3 19 104 38 41 41 1.4
1 8 24 117 45 39 1.3
257 2,178 2,014 3,264 3,143 2,171 75.4
291 2,642 2,768 4,415 4,289 2,881 100.0
3-28.
: .
-
3 135
EU GSP EBA (GSP-Everything But Arms Initiative)
GSP (GSP-Duty and quota-free market access)
GSP (GSP-Revised Preferential Tariffs Ordinance)
LDBDC GSP(GSP for least-developed beneficiary developing countries)
(44)
5,000 GSP LDC 1,450
GSP (GSP-African Growth and Opportunities Act: AGOA)
40
(26 )
4,600 GSP 1,800
GSP (GSP-Least-developed Countries Tariff Programme: LDCT)
,
GSP (GSP-Enhanced duty-and quota-free market access)
8,859 ( 98%, 99% .)
(Forum on China-Africa Co-operation)
(30)
(Duty-Free Tariff Preference Scheme: DFTP)
HS 6 85%
(Duty-and quota-free entry)
GSP (GSP-Tariff Treatment for LDCs)
: WTO(2009), pp. 39~43; , (2010), p. 19 .
3-29.
, EU, (GSP: Generalized System of Preference) ( 3-29). 2010
-
136DDA
80.4%( ) . 20% . .
.
GTAP . [ 3-30] . EU , . .
97% .
. GDP 0.62% ( 3-31). GDP .64) GDP , GDP
64) ( ).
-
3 137
EU-28 1 0.08 2.58 65.16 24.73 2 0.40 0.24 4.74 191.50 3 17.92 87.53 23.55 1.70 4 7.68 0.00 0.70 0.30 5 0.20 0.41 24.06 4.23 6 3.63 2.48 24.74 17.42 7 0.00 0.00 0.12 2.19 8 1.53 0.08 8.42 11.22 9 9.65 0.03 3.79 4.52 10 0.09 0.00 0.73 0.92 11 0.05 0.02 1.35 4.49 12 0.08 0.00 1.19 1.32 13 0.12 0.00 0.41 0.43 14 0.97 0.03 7.36 4.19 15 0.04 0.06 0.56 1.44 16 0.56 0.01 1.61 6.26 17 0.14 0.01 1.08 5.21 18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
: GTAP 8.1 .
3-30. (: %)
. EU . GDP . .
( 3-32). . EU . .
-
138DDA
(%) GDP
(%) ( ) ( )
(%, )
(%, ) 0.00 327 922 0.11 0.09
EU 28 0.00 296 465 0.04 0.02 0.02 680 757 0.03 0.04 0.00 44 48 0.01 0.02
0.00 20 27 0.00 0.01 0.01 57 74 0.00 0.00
0.62 2,643 3,262 2.38 3.23 0.00 31 14 0.01 0.00 0.00 273 67 0.02 0.00
0.00 25 156 0.00 0.02
3-31. : ()
: .
EU 28
GRAI 0.06 0.08 0.00 0.07 0.01 0.00 -0.92 0.07 0.05 0.04 VGOL 0.04 0.09 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.01 -1.44 0.03 0.04 0.06 SUGA -0.16 -16.66 -0.03 0.01 -0.25 -0.04 104.42 -0.32 -0.65 -6.84 OTAG 0.12 0.23 0.15 0.07 0.09 0.06 -1.81 0.09 0.19 0.24 LIST 0.01 0.06 -0.02 0.03 0.03 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.06 DAIR -0.01 0.06 0.00 -0.01 0.01 -0.01 -0.16 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 EXTR 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.04 -1.21 0.04 0.04 0.02 FDBV 0.00 0.05 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.58 -0.01 0.01 -0.04 TXCL -0.56 0.08 -0.10 -0.16 -0.08 -0.05 10.77 -0.15 -0.30 -0.21
WOOD 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.03 -2.08 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 CHEM 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -2.47 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 STME 0.04 0.04 0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -4.18 -0.01 -0.01 -0.03 OTME 0.21 0.25 0.07 0.19 0.12 0.05 -9.28 0.12 0.17 0.15 VEHI 0.03 0.01 0.00 -0.02 -0.02 0.02 -3.55 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 ELEC 0.05 0.05 0.02 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 -4.68 -0.03 -0.05 -0.03 MACH 0.05 0.03 0.00 -0.03 -0.03 -0.02 -5.01 -0.03 -0.04 -0.03 OTMA 0.05 0.02 0.03 -0.04 0.00 0.02 -1.83 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 : GRAI(), VGOL( , ), SUGA(), OTAG( ), LIST(), DAIR(),
EXTR(), FDBV(). TXCL( ), WOOD(), CHEM(), STME(), OTME( ), VEHI( ), ELEC(), MACH(), OTMA( ) .
: .
3-32. : () (: %)
-
3 139
4. ()
.
1)
25.65) EU. EU 1995 88.7%, 2005 81.7% . 2010 52.4% EU .
, , (2010 ).66) 2003~10 8,600~1 , 2010 20% . 1995 4.4 2011 8,500 .
2005 2 7,000 EU , 2006 2009 230 , 2010 . EU, , , 4 25 98% .
65) (13), (5), (1), (11), EU(20), (2), (11), (5) .
66) EU, , 2011 2011 .
-
140DDA
2)
WTO (, , , ), (, , ), (, , ), , , , (incorporated products) . 72 , 62 , 44 . EU , 20 , 11 , 13 .
EU 1995 , , , 200910 , , , , , , , , , .67)
200911 , , , , 2010 2011 . , , , , 5 .
2009 237 , 2010 . , , , , 2001 .
67) 2010 450 , 9,800 .
-
3 141
-
142DDA
, , EU, , 5 2009~11 2 6,000 , , , .
3) G20 3(2009~11)
, , EU, , , 68) 6. 2013 5 G20 2013 UR 50% . G20 , , 3 . WTO (annual commitment levels) 50% . 50% G20 .
2003 , , , 50% . , , , 50% . WTO 66% ( 3-35). EU ( ), 2009 2010 .
68) 2009~11 3 146 .
-
3 143
-
144DDA
(2011)
(2011)
EU(2010)
(2010)
(2009)
17.3 45.9 2.2 20.9 0.4 66 72 - - - - 83 7 - 7 - 57 - 85 7 - - - - - - 52 7 - - - - 5 - - - - 41 - - - - - 100 - - - - 100 - Incorporated products - - 3 100 -
3-35. G20 (, )(: %)
: WTO . : WTO .
.
WTO , EU, , , . WTO , , EU, 3 96% .69) 2006 EU . 4 2009 (2008 ).
, 1995
69) 1995~2005.
-
3 145
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 32.0 3.4 465.6 934.7 2,353.1 1,049.8 2,810.1 1,186.8 EU 1,036.0 967.7 915.6 803.0 664.5 732.4 514.6 688.2
- - - - 344.8 423.1 216.3 145.7 12.8 10.3 55.4 35.1 55.3 52.1 27.7 18.1 11.1 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 6.8 -2,106 - - -64.8 -72.5 -91.5 -147.3 -94.0
: () () .: WTO , International Financial Statistics(IFS)
.
3-36. (1)(: )
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 434.9 2,238.4 1,620.7 1,365.2 207.9 1,130.0 148.3 81.2 EU 868.4 900.7 919.6 - - - - -
124.9 117.7 134.3 110.4 538.9 398.2 27.4 44.3 82.7 341.8 325.1 - 269.0 2.2 7.0 12.4 5.4 12.4 - - - -140.6
: () () .: .
3-37. (2)(: )
3,200 DDA 2001 28 . 2009 1 4,800 , 2010 8,100 . 1999 2001 2 1,600 2008 4 2 . 2008 , 74%, 26% .
-
146DDA
.
. EU .
. ( ), , 5 .70)
. GDP GDP ( 3-38).
EU , GDP ( 3-39). EU GDP , GDP .
70) GTAP rTMS (+) (-) . 5 rTMS 30% . 10% 20% , 30% .
-
3 147
GDP
(%) ( ) ( )
(%, )
(%, ) 0.00 87 84 0.00 0.00
EU 28 0.00 94 54 0.00 0.00 0.00 25 23 0.00 0.00 0.00 10 10 0.00 0.00
0.00 16 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 2 0.00 0.00
0.00 0 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 121 64 0.00 0.00 0.00 61 35 0.00 0.00
0.00 4 2 0.00 0.00
3-38. (): 30% (, EU )
: .
GDP
(%) ( ) ( )
(%, )
(%, ) 0.00 166 164 0.00 0.01
EU 28 0.00 194 254 0.00 0.00 0.00 23 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 21 25 0.00 0.00
0.00 62 58 0.00 0.02 0.00 3 17 0.00 0.00
0.00 2 5 0.01 0.00 0.00 120 96 0.00 0.00 0.00 116 18 0.01 0.01
0.00 -28 62 0.00 0.00
3-39. (): 30% (, EU )
: .
-
3 149
4
1. 2. 3.
DDA
-
150DDA
, , CGE . DDA , EU, , , , .
1.
.
1)
GTAP 8.1 135 DDA () 10 . 10 (KORE) (USAA), EU(EU28), (CHIN), (INDI), (BRAZ), (LDCS), (DPED), (DING), (OTHE). EU DDA , . . .
-
4 151
2)
GTAP 8.1 57 18 . , , , , , ( ) 8 . . .
1 GRAI , 2 VGOL , , 3 SUGA , 4 OTAG , 5 LIST , 6 DAIR 7 EXTR , , 8 FDBV 9 TXCL , , , 10 WOOD , -11 CHEM /, , 12 STME -13 OTME -14 VEHI , 15 ELEC -16 MACH -17 OTMA -18 SERV -: GTAP 8.
4-1.
-
152DDA
, . . , . , , , , , 9 . 1 .
.
TRQ , , .
, EU , . TRQ . G20 .
. , CGE .
-
4 153
TRQ .
. DDA .
.71) TRQ , . .
(LDC )TRQ
4-2.
71) . CGE .
-
154DDA
. 3 . 3 .
TRQ 3 TRQ 20% . . 97% .
10%
TRQ
, /(), , , 5 20%
, /( ), , , 5
( ) 97%
: .
4-3.
-
4 155
GDP ( )(%) ( )
0.94 179,628 163,470 EU 28 3.50 680,290 611,426
3.50 307,910 260,599 - 1,167,828 1,035,495
6.90 256,747 233,696 5.44 114,453 105,819
0.62 5,748 1,125 3.90 42,974 35,778
14.15 54,693 48,109 11.16 670,651 610,004
2.16 8,319 390 - 1,153,585 1,032,671
: .
4-4.
2.
.
( 4-4). GDP .
GDP 1% . EU 3.5% GDP . EU 15 13 ,
-
156DDA
.
GDP . GDP 5.4~6.9% , 4% GDP . GDP . .
GDP 72) 1 1,678 GDP 1 . 1 1,536 GDP 1 .
, GDP , . .
72) , EU, .
-
4 157
. .
. .
.
. GDP , .
EU, GDP . GDP EU GDP . EU .
GDP . . GDP 0.6% , GDP . GDP
-
158DDA
. TRQ GDP .73)
GDP
(%) ( ) ( )
(%, )
(%, ) 0.00 389 804 0.14 0.12
EU 28 0.00 672 68 0.05 0.03 0.02 538 682 0.00 0.01 0.00 77 59 0.02 0.03
0.03 422 497 0.08 0.20 0.02 264 173 0.05 0.04
0.62 2,657 3,292 2.40 3.25 0.01 1,017 925 0.08 0.06 0.01 210 396 0.09 0.10
0.00 15.2 154 0.00 0.02 : .
4-5. ()
3.
TRQ
73) TRQ TRQ .
-
4 159
.74)
DDA . , GDP .
. GDP . GDP . . .
, . section II .
74) . . , .
-
160DDA
. .
, DDA . DDA . EU, , , DDA 5 . GDP 0.6% 6 . .
. TRQ GDP . TRQ . .
.
-
4 161
. . , .
. , TRQ DDA 5 . .
-
5
1. 2.
DDA
-
164DDA
. . . .
1.
.
1990 . 6 , , , , .75) , .
OECD ,
75) (2012), pp. 62~64.
-
5 165
, , , OECD . , OECD , , , OECD ( 5-1).
, .
0.0
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