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MINISTRY of ECONOMY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK January 2016 Recent Update: 12/26/2015

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Page 1: Economic outlook

MINISTRY of ECONOMY

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

January 2016

Recent Update: 12/26/2015

Page 2: Economic outlook

A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK…………………………………………………… 3

B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK…………………………………………………….. 19

1) MERCHANDISE…………………………………………………………... 20

2) SERVICES…………………………………………………………………….. 32

C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES…………………. 37

D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY…………………………………………………………… 44

E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE 49

OUTLINE

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 2

Page 3: Economic outlook

A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 3

Page 4: Economic outlook

Growth Forecasts of International Organizations (%)

In 2014, Turkish economy grew by 2.9%.

According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 3% in2015 and 2.9% in 2016

Source: IMF, OECD, WB

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 4

Growth Forecast for Selected Countries/Country Groups(%)

World Turkey Euro Area US Brazil Russia India China

IMF2015 3,1 3,0 1,5 2,5 -3,8 -3,7 7,3 6,9

2016 3,4 2,9 1,7 2,6 -3,5 -1,0 7,5 6,3

OECD2015 2,9 3,1 1,5 2,4 -3,1 -4,0 7,2 6,8

2016 3,3 3,4 1,8 2,5 -1,2 -0,4 7,3 6,5

WB2015 2,4 4,2 1,5 2,5 -3,7 -3,8 7,3 6,9

2016 2,9 3,5 1,7 2,7 -2,5 -0,7 7,8 6,7

Page 5: Economic outlook

According to the IMF estimates, global trade volume of merchandise andservices is expected to increase by 3.2% in in 2015 and 4.1% in 2016.

According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise andservices is expected to increase by 2.8% in 2015 and 3.9% in 2016.

Forecasts for Merchandise Trade Growth (%)

Source: IMF and WTO

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 5

Forecasts for Merchandise Trade Growth(%)

World Trade VolumeYears

Exports Imports

Advanced Economies

Emerging Economies

Advanced Economies

Emerging Economies

IMF2015 2,8 3,5 3,7 1,5 3,2

2016 3,1 4,6 4,0 4,3 4,1

WTO2015 3,0 2,4 3,1 2,5 2,8

2016 3,9 3,8 3,2 5,2 3,9

Page 6: Economic outlook

Top 20 Economies (Current, PPP)

Source: IMF

Turkey ranks as the 18th largest economy in the World and 7th in Europe.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 6

Page 7: Economic outlook

Economic Targets of 2016-2018 Medium Term Program

**Purchasing Power Parity(Medium Term Program, Ministry of Development)

Medium Term Program, which covers 2016-2018 period, aims toincrease growth as well as providing its comprehension viastructural reforms, while continuing to reduce the current accountdeficit and inflation gradually.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 7

2015 2016 2017 2018

GDP (Billion TL, Current Prices) 1963 2207 2489 2770

GDP Per Capita ($)** 20.298 21.240 22.460 23.829

Real GDP Growth 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,0

Unemployment Rate(%) 10,2 10,2 9,9 9,6

Tourism Income (Billion $) 27,0 27,0 29,4 31,8

Current Account Balance (Billion $) -31,7 -28,6 -29,3 -29,9

Current Account Balance/GDP(%) -4,4 -3,9 -3,7 -3,5

Page 8: Economic outlook

Real GDP Growth of Selected Countries/Country Groups (2014)

Turkish Economy expanded by 4.2% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014.

Source: TURKSTAT, IMF

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 8

Page 9: Economic outlook

Economic Growth Rates (2002-2015)

Source: TURKSTAT

Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2014 was 4.7%.

GDP growth for the 1st quarter of 2015 was 2.5%, 3.8% for the 2nd quarter

and 4% for the third quarter

Growth rate was 3.4% for the first 9 months of this year.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 9

5.3

9.4

8.4

6.9

4.7

0.7

-4.8

9.28.8

2.1

4.2

2.92.5

3.8 4.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-I 2015-II 2015-III

Page 10: Economic outlook

GDP Per Capita

Source: TURKSTAT,

Since 2002 GDP per capita has tripled from 3,492 USD to 10,390 USD in2014. In PPP terms GDP per capita exceeded 19,000 USD in 2014.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 10

Page 11: Economic outlook

Capacity Utilization Ratio (%)

Source: CBRT

Capacity utilization ratio in january 2016 decreased by 0.9 pointscompared to that of previous month and realized as 74,9%.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 11

Page 12: Economic outlook

Industrial Production Index (2010=100)

Source: TURKSTAT

Industrial production index rose by 3,6% year-on-year to 130,0 (2010=100) inOctober 2015.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 12

Page 13: Economic outlook

PMI (Purchasing Manager Index)

PMI increased to 52,2 in December 2015, higher than theprevious month’s level (50,9).

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 13

Page 14: Economic outlook

Inflation (Annual Percentage Change)

Inflation rates in December 2015 were 8.8% and 5.71% according to CPIand PPI, respectively.

Source: TURKSTAT

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 14

Page 15: Economic outlook

Unemployment Rates (%)

Source: TURKSTAT

In October 2015, unemployment rate was 10.5% . In 2014, it was 9.9%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Euro Area was 10.5 % and 9.1 % in (EU28) in

October 2015. In terms of unemployment ratio Turkey outperformed 6 EU members accordingto current data.

After Russia, Germany, England and France, Turkey has the 5th largest labor force among theEuropean countries. (2014, Economist Intelligence Unit)

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 15

Page 16: Economic outlook

CDS Premiums (January 25th, 2016)

Source: Deutsche Bank Research, Bloomberg* Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 16

44

68

105

128

119

166

209

174

286

294

489

374

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Ireland

S.Korea

Spain

China

Italy

Hungary

Portugal

Bulgaria

Turkey

Croatia

Brazil

Russia

Page 17: Economic outlook

Central Government Budget Deficit/ GDP (%)

Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio in 2013 was 1.2% and Turkey compliedwith the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 22 EU Countries. For theyear 2014, the same ratio was 1.3%.

In January-December 2015 period, central government budget deficit was 22,6 billionTL compared to 23,3 billion TL deficit in the same period of 2014.

Source: Eurostat, TUİK* 2014

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 17

Page 18: Economic outlook

Government Debt / GDP (%)

Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 36.2% in 2013 indicating a level below theMaastricht Criterion (60%). Turkey also outperformed 25 EU countries.

In 2014, the ratio was realized at 33.5%

Source: Eurostat*2014

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 18

Page 19: Economic outlook

B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 19

Page 20: Economic outlook

I) MERCHANDISE

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 20

Page 21: Economic outlook

Targets in Merchandise Trade

Turkish Statistical Institute*Forecast: Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development, 2016-2018)**The Exports Strategy of Turkey For 2023

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 21

(Billion $) 2014 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2023**

Exports 157.6 143.9 155.5 175.8 201.4 500

Imports 242.2 207.1 210.7 243.1 273.2 625

Volume of trade 399.8 351.0 366.2 418.9 474.6 1125

Balance of trade -84.5 -63.1 -55.2 -67.2 -71.8 -125

Exports/Imports (%) 65.1 69.5 73.8 72.3 73.7 80

Page 22: Economic outlook

Turkey's Share in Global Merchandise Exports (%)

Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was %0.83 in2014.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 22

Page 23: Economic outlook

Turkey's Share in Global Merchandise Imports (%)

Turkey’s share in global merchandise imports was %1.27 in 2014.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 23

Page 24: Economic outlook

Foreign Trade Developments

In first eleven months of 2015, compared to the same period of 2014, exports decreased by 8.4% and imports decreased by 14,1%.

Source: Ministry of Economy

* Energy corresponds to Chapter 27.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 24

2013 2014 2014 / (JAN-NOV) 2015 / (JAN - NOV)Change (%)

2014/2015

Export 151.8 157.6 144.3 132.2 -8.4

Energy Export* 6.7 6.1 5.7 4.2 -27.1

Gold Export 3.3 3.2 3.2 7.4 132.2

Import 251.7 242.2 220.4 189.2 -14.1

Energy Import* 55.9 54.9 50.5 34.8 -31.0

Gold Import 15.1 7.1 6.5 3.1 -52.2

Foreign Trade Volume 403.5 399.8 364.7 321.4 -11.9

Foreign Trade Balance -99.9 -84.6 -76.0 -57.0 -25.0

Balance excl. Energy -50.7 -35.8 -31.3 -26.4 -15.8

Export/Import (%) 60.3 65.1 65.5 69.9 6.7

Annual (Billion $) Periodic (Billion Dollar)

Page 25: Economic outlook

Monthly Exports and Imports

In November, 2015 compared to the same month of 2014, exports have decreased by 10.2% and realizedas 11.7 billion dollars and imports have decreased by 25.3% down to the level of 15.9 billion dollars.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 25

Page 26: Economic outlook

Distribution of Foreign Trade in Broad Economic Categories

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 26

EXPORT

IMPORT

Source: TURKSTAT

EXPORT (Milyon $) 2014 2015 2014 2015 Change (%)Share

%

Investment Goods 1,288 1,417 10.0 14,644 13,981 -4.5 10.6

Intermediate Goods 5,692 5,000 -12.2 69,350 63,577 -8.3 48.1

Consumption Goods 6,001 5,284 -11.9 59,333 53,965 -9.0 40.8

Others 86 37 -57.0 1,013 671 -33.8 0.5

TOTAL 13,067 11,738 -10.2 144,340 132,194 -8.4 100

November

Change (%)

January-November

İMPORT (Milyon $) 2014 2015 2014 2015 Change (%)Share

%

Investment Goods 3,033 2,688 -11.4 32,185 31,622 -1.7 16.7

Intermediate Goods 15,908 10,980 -31.0 161,654 131,165 -18.9 69.3

Consumption Goods 2,423 2,270 -6.3 26,146 26,034 -0.4 13.8

Others 21 36 71.4 404 399 -1.2 0.2

TOTAL 21,385 15,974 -25.3 220,389 189,220 -14.1 100

November

Change (%)

January-November

Page 27: Economic outlook

Main Export Items

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 27

* Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2015.

Source: TURKSTAT

Million Dollar CHANGE % *

Rank Code Periodic (January-November) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014/2015

1 87 VEHICLE OTHER THAN RAILWAY OR TRAMWAY 16,544 15,843 13,920 15,899 2,624 -56 -4.2

2 84 BOILERS, MACHINERY AND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES 12,435 11,255 25,236 23,048 -12,801 -11,794 -9.5

3 71 PEARLS, PRECIOUS STONES, PRECIOUS METALS 7,227 10,932 7,417 3,807 -189 7,125 51.3

4 61 KNITTED AND CROCHETED GOODS AND ARTICLES THEREOF 9,301 8,208 920 799 8,381 7,409 -11.7

5 85 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT, PARTS THEREOF 8,775 7,543 16,242 15,995 -7,467 -8,452 -14.0

6 72 IRON AND STEEL 8,441 6,068 16,152 13,651 -7,710 -7,582 -28.1

7 62 NON KNITTED AND CROCHETED GOODS AND ARTICLES THEREOF 5,773 5,439 1,758 1,672 4,015 3,767 -5.8

8 73 ARTICLES OF IRON AND STEEL 5,773 5,034 2,395 2,468 3,378 2,566 -12.8

9 39 PLASTIC AND ARTICLES THEREOF 5,617 4,941 13,036 11,233 -7,419 -6,292 -12.0

10 27 MINERAL FUELS AND MINERALS OILS 5,714 4,164 50,477 34,835 -44,763 -30,671 -27.1

85,601 79,428 147,553 123,406 -61,952 -43,978 -7.2

144,341 132,194 220,389 189,219 -76,048 -57,025 -8.4

EXPORTS IMPORTS BALANCE

List Total

Total

Page 28: Economic outlook

Main Import Items

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 28

* Percent change is related to the annual change in imports in 2015.

Source: TURKSTAT

Million Dollar CHANGE % *

Rank Code Periodic (January-November) 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014/2015

1 27 MINERAL FUELS AND MINERALS OILS 50,699 34,835 5,714 4,164 -44,985 -30,671 -31.3

2 84 BOILERS, MACHINERY AND MECHANICAL APPLIANCES, PARTS THEREOF 27,025 23,048 12,435 11,255 -14,590 -11,793 -14.7

3 85 ELECTRICAL MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT, PARTS THEREOF 16,112 15,995 8,775 7,543 -7,337 -8,452 -0.7

4 87 VEHICLE OTHER THAN RAILWAY OR TRAMWAY ROLLING-STOCK, PARTS THEREOF 15,143 15,899 16,544 15,843 1,401 -56 5.0

5 72 İRON AND STEEL 16,887 13,651 8,441 6,068 -8,446 -7,583 -19.2

6 39 PLASTIC AND ARTICLES THEREOF 12,785 11,233 5,617 4,941 -7,168 -6,292 -12.1

7 29 ORGANIC CHEMICALS 4,869 4,339 498 430 -4,371 -3,909 -10.9

8 90 OPTICAL, PHOTOGRAPHIC, CINEMATOGRAPHIC, MEASURING CHECKING, PRECISION 4,102 4,150 631 657 -3,471 -3,493 1.2

9 30 PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS 3,783 3,856 723 785 -3,060 -3,071 1.9

10 71 PRECİOUS STONES, PRECİOUS METALS 14,757 3,807 7,227 10,932 -7,530 7,125 -74.2

166,162 130,812 66,605 62,618 -99,557 -68,194 -21.3

220,389 189,219 144,341 132,194 -76,048 -57,025 -14.1

IMPORT EXPORT BALANCE

List Total

Total

Page 29: Economic outlook

Main Export Partners (Share,%)

Main Trade Partners (January –November 2015)

Main Import Partners (Share,%)

Source: TURKSTAT

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 29

9.3

7.4

6.1

4.7

4.4

Germany

United Kingdom

Iraq

Italy

USA

12

10.2

9.9

5.4

5.1

China

Germany

Russia

Italy

USA

Page 30: Economic outlook

Exports by Regions

Source: TURKSTAT

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 30

2014 2015 % Share % Chg. 2014 2015 % Share % Chg.

EU (28) 5,720 5,631 48.0 -1.5 63,178 58,633 44.4 -7.2

FREE ZONES IN TURKEY 182 149 1.3 -18.1 2,074 1,741 1.3 -16.1

OTHER EUROPE 1,152 855 7.3 -25.8 14,243 13,428 10.2 -5.7

AFRİCA 1,056 1,059 9.0 0.3 12,517 11,274 8.5 -9.9

North Africa 748 712 6.1 -4.8 8,887 7,714 5.8 -13.2

Other Africa 308 347 3.0 12.7 3,631 3,560 2.7 -2.0

AMERICA 852 753 6.4 -11.6 9,083 8,414 6.4 -7.4

North America 653 559 4.8 -14.4 6,502 6,425 4.9 -1.2

Central America and Caraips 58 117 1.0 101.3 847 794 0.6 -6.3

South America 140 77 0.7 -45.0 1,734 1,195 0.9 -31.1

ASIA 4,056 3,240 27.6 -20.1 42,488 38,045 28.8 -10.5

Near and Middle East 3,099 2,418 20.6 -22.0 31,908 28,602 21.6 -10.4

Other Asia 958 822 7.0 -14.2 10,580 9,443 7.1 -10.7

AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND 44 41 0.4 -5.2 543 561 0.4 3.4

OTHER COUNTRIES 6 9 0.1 50.1 216 99 0.1 -54.0

Total 13,067 11,738 100 -10.2 144,341 132,194 100 -8.4

EXPORT

(Million $)November January-November

Page 31: Economic outlook

Imports by Regions

Source: TURKSTAT

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 31

2014 2015 % Share % Chg. 2014 2015 % Share % Chg.

EU (28) 7,426 6,395 40.0 -13.9 80,647 71,588 37.8 -11.2

FREE ZONES IN TURKEY 98 95 0.6 -3.7 1,165 1,128 0.6 -3.1

OTHER EUROPE 3,675 1,911 12.0 -48.0 33,283 25,771 13.6 -22.6

AFRİCA 657 380 2.4 -42.1 5,363 4,654 2.5 -13.2

North Africa 272 209 1.3 -23.0 3,127 2,733 1.4 -12.6

Other Africa 385 171 1.1 -55.6 2,236 1,921 1.0 -14.1

AMERICA 1,647 1,233 7.7 -25.1 17,168 15,323 8.1 -10.7

North America 1,168 850 5.3 -27.2 12,593 11,026 5.8 -12.4

Central America and Caraips 98 70 0.4 -28.5 1,019 962 0.5 -5.6

South America 381 313 2.0 -17.9 3,555 3,335 1.8 -6.2

ASIA 6,428 5,149 32.2 -19.9 69,864 61,203 32.3 -12.4

Near and Middle East 1,938 987 6.2 -49.1 18,887 12,485 6.6 -33.9

Other Asia 4,489 4,162 26.1 -7.3 50,978 48,718 25.7 -4.4

AUSTRALIA and NEW ZEALAND 92 78 0.5 -15.8 479 560 0.3 16.9

OTHER COUNTRIES 1,363 733 4.6 -46.2 12,421 8,994 4.8 -27.6

Total 21,385 15,974 100 -25.3 220,389 189,219 100 -14.1

(Million $)November January-November

Page 32: Economic outlook

2) SERVICES

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 32

Page 33: Economic outlook

Targets in Services

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 33

Page 34: Economic outlook

Turkey's Share in Global Services Exports (%)

Source: WTO

Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 1.03% in 2014.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 34

Page 35: Economic outlook

Turkey's Share in Global Services Imports (%)

Source: WTO

Turkey’s share in global imports of services was 0.49% in 2014.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 35

Page 36: Economic outlook

Contracting Services Abroad

42 out of the world’s top 250 contracting companies are Turkish.

Turkey ranks as the 2nd country (following China) in terms of the number of top contracting companies.

Contributions to the overalleconomic performance: Creatingforeign exchange inflow, exports,employment, technology transfer;adding to the machinery stock,facilitating internationalization.

Regional Breakdown of Projects(%)

Years Projects Countries

Project

Volume

(Million $)

Cum.

Project

Volume

(Million $)

Avr.

Project

Volume

(Million $)

1971-2001 2256 48 46,584 46,584 21

2002 208 34 4,127 50,711 20

2003 343 35 6,401 57,112 19

2004 476 36 8,460 65,573 18

2005 451 33 13,245 78,818 29

2006 575 35 22,205 101,023 39

2007 610 45 25,122 126,145 41

2008 657 39 23,874 150,019 36

2009 512 45 20,189 170,207 39

2010 624 50 23,446 193,653 38

2011 552 51 23,027 216,680 42

2012 533 48 29,741 246,421 56

2013 416 48 29,977 276,398 73

2014 324 46 26,824 303,222 83

2015 156 42 19,366 322,588 124Last updated on December 2015

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 36

Page 37: Economic outlook

C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL andINCENTIVES

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 37

Page 38: Economic outlook

Foreign Direct Investment

FDI reached 148.75 billion USD in 2003-2014 period, while it was 14.6 billion USD in 1984-2002 period.

FDI increased 23.2 % in 2015 January-November with respect toprevious period and reached 14.1 billion USD.

Source: CBRT

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 38

Page 39: Economic outlook

Foreign Direct Investment Abroad

Turkish citizens’ direct investments abroad reached 33 billion USD from2003 to date.

Outward FDI, for the period 2015 January-November and reached 4.9 billionUSD.

Source: CBRT

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 39

Page 40: Economic outlook

The Sectoral Breakdown of Foreign Investments

Source: CBRT

*January-November

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 40

(Million $) 2013 2014 2014* 2015*

AGRICULTURE 47 61 57 46

INDUSTRIAL SECTORS 4,819 4,844 4,346 5,132

Mining and Quarrying 242 364 364 194

Manufacturing 2,207 2,894 2,646 3,601

Production and Distribution of Electricity & Gas 2,334 1,583 1,333 1,335

SERVICES SECTOR 5,000 3,979 3,370 4,794

TOTAL 9,866 8,884 7,773 9,972

Page 41: Economic outlook

Breakdown of Foreign Investments by Country

*January-NovemberSource: CBRT

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 41

2013 2014* 2015*

1 Spain 506 57 2,154

2 USA 326 175 1,479

3 Netherlands 918 1,949 1,024

4 Russia 875 729 757

5 Belgium 60 39 733

6 England 300 1,033 454

7 China 9 28 446

8 Qatar 469 8 350

9 Luxembourg 278 522 337

10 Malaysia 12 0 327

11 Germany 1,968 624 324

12 Japan 439 211 298

13 Azerbaijan 803 716 294

14 Swiss 204 152 161

15 France 217 97 158

16 Italy 146 473 150

17 Greece 68 92 89

18 United Arab Emirates 176 98 67

19 South Korea 61 42 61

20 Austria 647 48 54

LIST TOTAL 8,482 7,093 9,717

TOTAL 9,866 7,773 9,972

Million Dolar

Page 42: Economic outlook

Investment Incentive System

The current investment incentive system ofTurkey is structured in four sub systems:

General Investment Incentive System

Regional Investment Incentive System

Investment Incentive System for Big ScaleProjects

Incentive System for Strategic Investments

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 42

Page 43: Economic outlook

Investment Incentives

*January – NovemberSource: General Directorate of Incentive Implementation and Foreign Investment

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 43

Certificates

Issued

Amount of

Fixed

Investment

(Million TL)

Potential

Employment

(People)

Total Total Total

2013 4,856 96,121 194,385

2014 4,033 64,022 144,471

2015* 3,959 90,655 128,430

Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 6 Various TOTAL

2013 1,753 797 686 505 470 619 26 4,856

2014 1,446 707 591 447 365 459 17 4,033

2015* 1,303 788 579 426 417 436 10 3,959

CERTIFICATES ISSUED

Page 44: Economic outlook

D - FREE ZONES IN TURKEY

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 44

Page 45: Economic outlook

Tax advantages for manufacturers Medium-and long-term investment view Availability to transfer profits Commercial facilities Exemption from customs duties Acquisition of the documents relating to the free movement of goods under

the scope of Customs Union with the EU Principle of equality No time restrictions Flexibility to adjust to the market needs and conditions Reliable inflation accounting Market access to domestic and foreign markets Reduced bureaucratic procedures and dynamic business management Strategic advantages Affordable and compatible infrastructure Supply chain opportunities

The Advantages of Free Zones for Users

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 45

Page 46: Economic outlook

Free Zones in Turkey

61,505 people have been employed in Free Zones of Turkey in 2014.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 46

Page 47: Economic outlook

Trade Flows of Free Zones

In 2014, total trade volume of the Free Zones reached 22.4billion dollars, decreasing 3.5% annually.

Source: General Directorate of Free Zones, Foreign Investments and Services

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

3,195 2,177 2,295 2,668 2,971 2,887 2,732

5,874 4,913 4,361 6,924 7,071 7,701 7,958

8,248 5,493 6,625 7,253 7,257 7,490 7,059

7,262 5,173 5,291 5,801 5,754 5,162 4,683

24,579 17,756 18,572 22,646 23,053 23,240 22,432TOTAL TRADE VOLUME

Million Dollar

From Domestic Market to Free Zones

From Free Zones to Abroad

From Abroad to Free Zones

From Free Zones to Domestic Markets

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 47

Page 48: Economic outlook

Concentration in Free Zones by Industries

Source: General Directorate of Free Zones, Foreign Investments and Services

Istanbul Ataturk Airport FZ Services and Software

Antalya FZ Yacht-building, Medical Equipment

Kocaeli FZ Ship-building

Avrupa FZ Ready-Wear

Mersin FZ Ready-Wear

Bursa FZ Automotive sub-industries

Izmir FZ Leather

TUBITAK-MAM FZ R&D Activities

Adana-Yumurtalik FZ Ship Repair and Maintenance

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 48

Page 49: Economic outlook

E - BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL

TRADE

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 49

Page 50: Economic outlook

Trade Relationships of Turkey with Others

Bilateral Trade Relationships of Turkey

Europe, Asia-Pacific, Eurasia, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Americas

Regional and Multiple Trade Relationships of Turkey

EU, ECO, D8, BSEC, OIC, COMCEC

Multilateral Trade Relationships of Turkey

WTO, OECD, G20

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 50

Page 51: Economic outlook

1. EFTA (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein)

2. Israel

3. Macedonia

4. Bosnia and Herzegovina

5. Palestine

6. Tunisia

7. Morocco

8. Syria (**)

9. Egypt

10. Albania

(*) Agreements that are in the approval process

(**) Pending

FTA Countries

11. Georgia

12. Montenegro

13. Serbia

14. Chile

15. Jordan

16. South Korea

17. Mauritius

18. Lebanon*

19. Kosovo*

20.Malaysia

21. Moldova*

22. Faroe Islands*

23. Singapore

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 51

Page 52: Economic outlook

1. Ghana*

2. Ukraine

3. Colombia

4. Ecuador

5. Democratic Republic of the

Congo

6. Cameroon

7. Seychelles

FTA Countries(On-going Negotiations)

8. Gulf Cooperation Council

9. Libya

10. MERCOSUR

11. Japan

12. Peru

13. Mexico

* Negotiations completed.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 52

Page 53: Economic outlook

Multilateral Trade Relationships

Trade in Services Aggrement (TISA)

Due to the stumble of Doha Development Round and ambitious targets of top servicesexporters, TISA negotiations which continue between countries, who makes up 70% oftotal world services, in order to increase liberalisation in services trade while Turkey isincluded in the negotiations.

Non Agricultural Market Access (NAMA)

NAMA refering to all products not covered by the WTO-Agreement on Agriculture(manufacturing products, fuels and mining products, fish and fish products, and forestryproducts) targets to further liberalization on these product by both reducing tariff andnon-tariff barriers.

G-20 Presidency

The G-20 economies consisting of USA, Germany, Argentina, the European UnionAustralia, Brazil, China, Indonesia, France, South Africa, South Korea, India, Britain, Italy,Japan, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey represent approximately 90% ofthe World GDP, 80% of the world trade, and two-thirds of the world population.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 53

Page 54: Economic outlook

Regional Breakdown of Exports

Source: TURKSTAT* January –November** Except Lebanon and Kosovo

In January- November 2015, exports to EFTA countries increased by 64%annually and the EFTA Countries became the fastest growing export destinationof the regions above.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 54

(Million $) 2013 2014Change

(%)

% Share

(2014)2014* 2015*

Change

(%)

% Share

(2014)

EU-28 63,040 68,514 8.7 43.5 63,178 58,633 -7.2 43.8

CIS 16,924 15,616 -7.7 9.9 14,354 9,799 -31.7 9.9

EFTA 1,662 3,795 128.4 2.4 3,708 6,098 64.4 2.6

Economic Cooperation

Organization 11,898 11,717 -1.5 7.4 10,534 8,728 -17.1 7.3

Organization of Islamic Cooperation49,371 48,625 -1.5 30.9 43,987 39,227 -10.8 30.5

Black Sea Economic

Cooperation 20,368 19,687 -3.3 12.5 18,133 13,422 -26.0 12.6

FTA Countries**14,942 18,845 26.1 11.2 17,440 18,560 6.4 12.1

OECD 68,684 76,675 11.6 48.6 70,557 69,308 -1.8 48.9

Turkic Republics 6,908 7,108 2.9 4.5 6,470 4,880 -24.6 4.5

General Total 151,803 157,610 3.8 100 144,341 132,194 -8.4 100.0

Page 55: Economic outlook

Trade Representatives Abroad

The Ministry are serving in 110countries, 154 locations and 4offices abroad.

January 2016 Ministry of Economy 55

Page 56: Economic outlook

Daimi Temsilci Yardımcılığı

Ticaret Müşavirliği

Ticaret Ataşeliği

İrtibat Büroları

AFRİKA

Kahire

Nairobi

Pretoria

Rabat

Trablus

Tunus

Kazablanka

ASYA

Astana

Aşkabat

Bangkok

Bişkek

Cakarta

Duşanbe

Hanoi

İslamabad

Kabil

Kuala Lumpur

Manila

Pekin

Seul

Singapur

AVRUPA/KAFKASYA

AB

DTÖ

OECD

Atina

Bakü

Belgrad

Berlin

Bern

Bratislava

Brüksel

Budapeşte

Bükreş

Dublin

Helsinki

Kiev

Kişinev

Kopenhag

Lahey

Lizbon

Lefkoşa

Londra

Lubliyana

Madrid

Minsk

Moskova

Oslo

Paris

Podgorica

Prag

Priştine

Roma

Saraybosna

Sofya

Stokholm

Tiflis

Tiran

Üsküp

Varşova

Viyana

Zagreb

Barselona

Batum

Düsseldorf

Hamburg

Hannover

Kazan

Marsilya

Milano

Münih

Novorossisk

Odessa

Rotterdam

Selanik

St.

Petersburg

Stutgart

Birmingham

Krasnodar

Novosibirsk

Yekaterinbur

g

Taşkent

Tokyo

Ulan Bator

Yeni Delhi

Almatı

Guangzhou

Hong Kong

Karaçi

Mumbai

Şangay

Georgetown

Abuja

Addis Ababa

Akra

Cezayir

Dakar

Darüsselam

Hartum

İskenderiye

Buenos Aires

Karakas

Mexico City

Ottava

Santiago

Vaşington

Houston

Los Angeles

AMERİKA

ORTA DOĞU

Abu Dhabi

Amman

Bağdat

Beyrut

Doha

Kuveyt

Manama

Muskat

Riyad

Sana

Şam

Tahran

Tel Aviv

Basra

Cidde

Dubai

Erbil

Halep

Kudüs

Musul

Tebriz

Sidney

Melbourne

AVUSTRALYA

New York

Sao Paulo

Şikago

Toronto

Miami

San Francisco

Seattle

GEORGETOWN

Locations of Trade Representatives

56