economic outlook douglas, az. cochise college center for economic research lower levels of...
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Economic OutlookDouglas, AZ
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Lower levels of production Job losses/rising unemployment Less income Lower levels of sales Stock market declines Loss of consumer and investor
confidence Financial crisis
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Peak Trough Duration (Months)
February 1945 October 1945 8
November 1948 October 1949 11
July 1953 May 1954 10
August 1957 April 1958 8
April 1960 February 1961 10
December 1969 November 1970 11
November 1973 March 1975 16
January 1980 July 1980 6
July 1981 November 1982 16
July 1990 March 1991 8
March 2001 November 2001 8
December 2007 ? 18 (and counting)
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
I 2005 II III IV I 2006 II III IV I 2007 II III IV I 2008 II III IV I 2009
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan2007
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan2008
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan2009
Mar
Compared to same month previous year
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Recovery likely in late 2009 Positive signs in recent weeks Financial crisis will slow
recovery and growth Economic stimulus will have
impact
How Cochise County andDouglas are impacted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%Ja
n 07
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
08
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
09
Feb Mar
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%Ja
n 07
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
08
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
09
Feb Mar
Compared to same month previous year
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Peso
s to
U.S.
Dol
lar
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Reta
il Sa
les T
ax G
row
th
Exchange Rate Retail Sales Tax Revenue
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise County retail market in recession since November 2007 2009 (Jan-Mar): -9.4% 2008: -6.5% 2007: -1.3%
Douglas Retail Sales Tax Revenue 2009 (Jan-Mar): -2.0% 2008: 6.1% 2007: 2.2%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Jan
07
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
08
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
09
Fe
b
Ma
r
Cochise County Douglas
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise County restaurant & bar sales in recession since October 2007 2009 (Jan-Mar): -2.9% 2008: 0.2% 2007: 0.1%
Douglas restaurant & bar sales in recession since at least July 2007 2009 (Jan-Mar): 0.4% 2008: -7.7% 2007: -2.9%
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
County retail sales at or near bottom—recovery likely in late 2009
City-level retail sales tax revenue helped along by tax rate increase
Stronger Peso may help Restaurant & bar sales at or near
bottom—recovery likely in mid-2009
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
*
United States
Arizona
Cochise County
Douglas (ADOC)
Douglas (CER)
* Jan-Apr only; seasonally adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
9.5%
10.5%
11.5%
Apr2008
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2009
Feb Mar Apr
United States
Arizona
Cochise County
Douglas (ADOC)
Douglas (CER)
Seasonally Adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
May2008
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2009
Feb Mar Apr
Compared to same month previous year
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
275
-450
-425
-325
-250
-75
-675
-100
-125
575
-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600
Professional and Business Services
Government
Information
Other Services
Manufacturing
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Construction
12 months ending Apr 2009
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
2.2%
-6.0%
-6.7%
-7.6%
-10.5%
-16.7%
-31.0%
10.8%
-14.3%
-38.6%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Professional and Business Services
Government
Educational and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Information
Manufacturing
Construction
Financial Activities
12 months ending Apr 2009
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Expect continued job losses & rising unemployment
Local area will fare better than, and begin to recover before, state and nation
ADOC data for Douglas will continue to overstate unemployment
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Co
ch
ise
Co
un
ty
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Do
ug
las
Cochise County Douglas
Single Family Residential Building Permits
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise County 2009, 1st Qtr: 66 (-45.5%) 2008: 404 (-14.4%) 2007: 472 (-47.6%) 2006: 900 (-18.8%)
Douglas 2009, Jan-Apr: 3 (-72.7%) 2008: 15 (-60.5%) 2007: 38 (-42.4%) 2006: 66 (-18.5%)
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise County 2009, Jan-Apr: 306 (-10.3%) 2008: 1,120 (-20.0%) 2007: 1,400 (-10.6%) 2006: 1,566 (-20.7%)
Douglas 2009, Jan-Apr: 25 (-21.9%) 2008: 102 (-3.8%) 2007: 106 (10.4%) 2006: 96 (5.5%)
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
14
10
7
9
78
10
3
6
17
87
15
8
5
89
8
5
7
11
3
7 7
02468
101214161820
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Previous Current
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
$50,000$65,000$80,000$95,000
$110,000$125,000$140,000$155,000$170,000$185,000$200,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Cochise County Douglas* Jan-Apr only
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Cochise County 2009, Jan-Apr: $175,970 (-
6.9%) 2008: $184,000 (-5.6%) 2007: $195,000 (1.3%) 2006: $192,569 (10.7%) 2005: $173,900 (24.3%) 2004: $139,900
Douglas 2009, Jan-Apr: $90,000
(4.0%) 2008: $89,750 (-0.3%) 2007: $90,000 (-1.1%) 2006: $91,000 (35.8%) 2005: $67,000 (21.8%) 2004: $55,000
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Va
lua
tio
n
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
New residential construction likely at or near bottom (county & city)
Existing home sales approaching bottom
Home prices should continue to hold or decline modestly
Commercial construction has remained relatively strong, but no new projects
Cochise College Center for Economic Research
Most of the recession is probably over
There have been some signs that we’re at the bottom
The economic stimulus package will have an impact on the economy
Employment probably won’t improve until late 2009 or early 2010