el impacto de la crisis económica mundial: una perspectiva de género
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El impacto de la crisis económica mundial: Una perspectiva de género. Rania Antonopoulos Quito, 26-27 Noviembre 2009. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
El impacto de la crisis económica mundial:
Una perspectiva de género
Rania Antonopoulos Quito, 26-27 Noviembre 2009
Foro Internacional “LA CRISIS MUNDIAL Y ECUADOR: CARACTERISTICAS, CONSECUENCIAS, OPORTUNIDADES Y DIMENSIONES DE GÉNERO”; MINISTERIO DE FINANZAS, UNIFEM, CI-GENERO,FLACSO AC DEMOCRACIA, ILDIS
The role of Markets revisited
• Challenge: Sub-prime mortgage crisis leads to turmoil in financial markets…
• Challenge: Overall demand is insufficient to provide jobs and hire those who need
and wish to work
• Challenge: Poverty, inequality, discrimination, precarious work conditions, low wages
The role of Government revisited Economic and Social outcomes of Laissez faire, and
small government prove uneven and often times disappointing
• In financial markets it can ameliorate instability and fragility:- Bailout… (who/how???)
- But also different rules and regulations are needed (what are the new rules???)
These are not simply technical issues
A framework to understand the crisis from a gender perspective
Financial sector
Market Production sector
Government Sector
Household production sector, plus Care, Reproduction and fulfillment of basic needs of people
Paid formal
Unpaid Work
Paid informal
A framework to understand Gender dimension of the Crisis
Financial sector
Market Production sector
Government sector
Household production, Reproduction and fulfillment of basic needs of people
Functional Distribution of Income ?
Washington Consensus, Inflation
targetingDeficits, IMF, Social
spending???
Neglect of domestic demand, reliance on exports, commodity
chain production Financial market
Liberalization
A Gender perspective on the crisis
Global and National economic and institutional arrangements
in the making for many yearsled to this financial crisis disregarding another
equally real crisis : the non-fulfillment of
basic human needs and of a pro-poor, gender equitable development agenda
Outline of the issues presented
1. Asymmetric impacts of the Crisis
2. A Gender analysis on the crisisa) how are women impacted upon
differently than men?b) what may be a gender equality
agenda at this juncture?
3. The policy space created:the right to a job?a)Can the “right to work” become part of
the Constitutional set of rights?b) can it also promote gender-equality and
pro-poor growth?
• Asymmetry #1Developing countries are hit by the current crisis hard, for no fault of their own
Asymmetry #2Not all governments have the capacity to engage in expansionary policy and fiscal stimulus packages
• Asymmetry #3Social impacts are uneven: People living in poverty have little to cushion them; As poor women and men occupy different social and economic positions, their response to the crisis and their suffering from it should not be treated as identical
Asymmetry #1Developing countries are hit hard by the current crisis, and for no fault of their own
– GDP growth– Trade flows– Remittances
Declining GDP per capita
12
33
18
1
14
2
13
60
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2009 2010
Developed countries
Economies in transition
Developing countries
Source: top graph Jomo K, UN-DESA (July 13-14, 2009;GEM-IWG conference); bottom graph Jayati Ghosh (July 10,2009; GEM-IWG Workshop)
De-coupling?
Top Recipients of Migrant remittances
Remittances in Mexico and other Latin American Countries($US)
World Trade (percentage change per year)
Asymmetry #2
Not all governments have the capacity to engage in expansionary policy and fiscal stimulus packages
Most vulnerable: high poverty and slow growth
2003 to 2007
Number of
Countries
Current Account Balance External Debt
Foreign Exchange Reserves, excl. gold
% improvement
% of GDP 2003
% of GDP 2006
% with improvement
% of GDP 2003
% of GDP 2007
% with improvement
Africa 31 45% 89.7 43.0 97% 12.8 18.1 78%
Central and Eastern Europe
8 38% 55.4 57.3 57% 21.0 23.2 63%
CIS 8 25% 56.1 44.5 88% 12.9 21.3 100%
Latin America and the Caribbean
16 38% 63.7 37.6 100% 11.7 14.8 69%
Middle East, incl. Egypt
7 43% 54.0 28.6 100% 41.1 50.1 40%
Asia, incl. NICs
20 45% 52.5 36.9 100% 27.2 32.7 69%
External Indicators of Developing and Transition Economies (with Population over 5 Million)
• Asymmetry#3Social Impacts are uneven
– People living in poverty have little to cushion them
– Women and men respond differently to the crisis
Social impacts
• ILO: 200 m. more working poor • ILO: Unemployment to rise by 51m• World Bank: 53 million more people in poverty
This is on top of the 130-155 million people pushed into poverty in 2008 because of soaring food and fuel prices
• Social spending is at risk (infant and maternal mortality)– decline in state revenues– ODA volatility and financing for MDGs
• Rising social unrest• Crisis is expected to lead to greatest security risks
Social Impacts are uneven• Malnourishment and school withdrawal among poor
children: in most countries, girls suffer more
• Women increase their Supply of Labour because they accept to work under very informal conditions
• Men suffer from depression, low self-esteem and will experience in some cases a decrease in life expectancy
• When tax revenues decline, government social spending is the first victim. More unpaid work by women who end up working longer (unpaid) hours to close the gaps plus maternal mortality will be further on the rise
What have we learned from past crises?
1. Investment rates collapse and savings rates rise (i.e., The Asian crisis of 1997-98)
countercyclical policies are badly needed (IMF?WB?)
2. Even when economic growth resumes, employment levels take a very long time to recover
public service job creation policies are badly needed
Philippines: GDP growth,savings and investment rates
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Savings rate Investment rate GDP growth rate
Malaysia: GDP growth, savings and investment rates
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Savings rate Investment rate GDP growth rate
South Korea: GDP growth, savings and investment rates
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Savings rate Investment rate GDP growth rate
Indonesia GDP growth, savings and investment rates
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1990199119921993 19941995199619971998199920002001 2002200320042005
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Savings rate Investment rate GDP growth rate
Jayati Ghosh, GEM-IWG Workshop, Day 10, Session II, July 10, 2009, The Levy Economics Institute
What else do we know from past experiences?
•The Asian financial crisis shows that the massive unemployment impacts --doubled rates within a year of the crisis-- persisted for a long time (LABORSTA, ILO)
•Indonesia has never recovered
•Thailand and the Philippines have taken nearly a decade to decrease unemployment rates to the pre-crisis levels
2. A Gender perspective on the crisis (continued)
a) how are women impacted upon differently than men?
b) what may be a gender equality agenda at this juncture?
Total Workload – Earnings Gap: Selected Developing Countries
What Is Unpaid Work?
• Gaining access to basic inputs for cooking, cleaning, sanitation, food processing etc: collecting water, wood etc
• Providing Care work: children, elderly, chronically ill etc;Volunteer work;Subsistence Production, family businesses
Where? at home and in the public domain
Formal work some family labor
Formal work
Household Sector
Public Sector
Formal Work
Supplies labor Receives income
Saves and Consumes
Banks
HOUSEHOLDS in the Economy:
Business Sector
The conventional view
Original graphic design of this and the following slide is from Eugenia Gomez Luna, "Unpaid work and the System of National Accounts", Session 9, Conference on “Unpaid Work: gender, poverty and the MDG’s,” October3-4, 2005, http://www.levy.org/undp-levy-conference/program_documents.asp
Formal Labor
Informal Labor
Formal
Volunteer
Household Sector
NGO Sector
Deterioration of
Human capabilities?
Formal workInformal work Unpaid work
Upaid work
Volunteer work
Formal Labor
Informal Labor
Upaid work
Volunteer work
Public Sector
Business Sector
…a different (Macro) perspective
Women and Employment Guarantee Programs
Issue#1: Supply of labor issues ( constraints by unpaid work; availability of crèche etc)
Issue#2: types of projects women want - Participation in design of
projects (unpaid work, cooperatives, skill enhancement)
Issue#3: evaluation criteria must include reduction of drudgery and
unpaid work
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
India Mauritius South Africa Benin Mongolia Madagascar
Time Spent on Nonmarket Activities (Selected Developing Economies)
Female Male
Gender paths of transmission of the crisis
• Micro credit and Micro-finance institutions• Paid work in export sectors: textiles,
consignment, agriculture and tourism• Informal work and vulnerable workers • Unpaid work and invisible vulnerabilities • Remittances and migration
Micro-finance institutions
Over 3,330 MFIs reached 133 million clients in 2006
93 million of the clients were among the poorest when they took their first loan, 85% women
REMITTANCES and Migration
Tajikistan(45.5% of GDP), Moldova (35% of GDP)
Uganda, Zimbabwe and Tajikistan(drop of 50%)
EXPORTS High-end agricultural
Uganda - cut flowers 85% female
Ecuador- cut flowers 70% female
Thailand fruits 80% female
EXPORTS High-end agricultural
Malaysia - garments 78% female
Bangladesh- garments 85% female
Philippines- electronics 53% female
The crisis?We must bear in mind that for many people, in many countries this crisis comes to sit on
top of other crises
• poverty• income inequality• diminishing space for livelihoods• unemployment • Basic needs remain unfulfilled,including the right to
a job
Changes in employment to output growth ratio
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Central andEastern Europe
(non-EU) & CIS
DevelopedCountries and EU
South Asia Latin America andthe Caribbean
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Middle East andNorth Africa
1995-1999
2000-2005
3. The policy space created:the right to a job?
a) Can the “right to work” become part of the Constitutional set of
rights?
b) Can it also promote gender-equality and pro-poor growth?
Why an EGS,ELR,PWP?The right to work promotes • Dignity, inclusion and expanded democracy
(rights based approach to economics and to life)• Direct and indirect income creation• Direct and indirect job creation
• RESOURSE MOBILIZATION??? LABOUR!!!! • But community development promoting work!!!
that also reduces unpaid work
Why an EGS,ELR,PWP?The right to work promotes (continued)
• Public and Private Asset creation • Pro-poor growth• Change our mentality about growth as the single
developmental objective and replace it with pro-poor growth, employment creation, social inclusion, improvement in the life of all people
Typology of Direct Job Creation Government Programs
• The Right to Work: INDIA NREGA since 2006
• Recognition of Unemployment during prosperity: South Africa since 2005, Sweden and Australia (1940’s-70’s)
• ILO Employment Intensive Infrastructure(since 70’s in many African countries)
• Emergency Programmes:Indonesia, Korea, Argentina post 2001 financial crisis, USA (New Deal and now)
• Social Funds:Bolivia (1986), Chile (1975-1987), Peru (1991) ????
Employment Guarantee Programs
-What kinds of jobs and for what types of “projects”?
-Who is eligible? For how long?
-What is the “cost” of such projects and what are the “benefits”? Financing? Are they inflationary?
-Institutional arrangements? Technical expertise?
Employment Guarantee Programs
• Expanded Public Works Programmes [infrastructure, social sector, environment, economic]
SOUTH AFRICA
• National Rural Employment Guarantee Act [Right to Information Act- Ongoing Social Audits ]
INDIA
Time Spent on Unpaid Work -SA
Total Hours Spent on Unpaid Work per Year by Household Type and Gender
0
1,00
0,00
0,00
0
2,00
0,00
0,00
0
3,00
0,00
0,00
0
4,00
0,00
0,00
0
5,00
0,00
0,00
0
6,00
0,00
0,00
0
7,00
0,00
0,00
0
8,00
0,00
0,00
0
Urban Formal African
Urban Formal Coloured/Asian
Urban Formal White
Urban Informal African
Rural Commercial African
Rural Commercial Coloured/Asian
Rural Commercial White
Ex-homeland African
Hou
seh
old
Gro
up
Total Hours Per Year
Female
Male
Rural Areas in India Types of Community Projects
Rural roads and access roads
Rural land development
Flood control works
Water conservation and water harvesting
Irrigation facilities to land owned by poor people and to beneficiaries of land reforms
Reactivation of traditional water harvesting and distribution systems
EPWPTypes of Community Projects
Road construction and maintenance Water delivery
Ecological latrines Early childhood development (unpaid work)Home and community based care (unpaid work)Environmental water conservation Prevention of fires
EPWP: Social Sector
• Social Sector consists of – ECD/Education and– HCBC/Health
• High female intensity (60 and 69% respectively) addresses female unemployment in the short run
and builds skills in the long-term
• Data source: Friedman, Irwin, Bhengu, L., Mothibe, N., Reynolds, N., and Mafuleka, A., (2007) Scaling up the EPWP,Health Systems Trust, November, Volume 1-4. Study commissioned by Development Bank of South Africa and EPWP.
Background on the Study• Type of Intervention : scaling up Early Childhood
Development and Home/Community Based Care
• The right to work , the right types of projects? unpaid work and gender issues
• Research project on micro-macro impact of scaling up public job creation
• South Africa Study: Kijong Kim (Levy Institute), EPWP interviews , Irwin Friedman (Health Trust Fund) and PROVIDE team (Dept. of Agriculture)
EPWP: Social Sector
The SAM for South Africa
• Based on PROVIDE, Dept. of Agriculture• Factors disaggregated by skill and gender• 26 sectors• 20 types of hhs• 7 exogenous sectors
1 FGOS2 FMaleUS3 FMaleSk4 FFemUS5 FFemSk
E 53 1 SALTAXX 54 2 INDTAXO 55 3 DIRTAXG 56 4 GOVT
57 5 KAP58 6 DSTOC59 7 ROW
A 27 1 CagricC 28 2 CminingT 29 3 CfoodI 30 4 CtextV 31 5 CpaperI 32 6 CpetroT 33 7 CnonmetI 34 8 CmetalsE 35 9 CmachinS 36 10 Ccomeq
37 11 Ctrnseq38 12 Comanuf39 13 Celec40 14 Cwater41 15 Cbuild42 16 Cconstr43 17 Ctradacc44 18 Ctrnscom45 19 Cfinserv46 20 Cbusserv47 21 Ceduc48 22 Cogovserv49 23 Chealth50 24 Csocial51 25 Coserv52 26 Cdomserv
1 HUF_Af1_32 HUF_Af43 HUF_Af54 HUF_Co1_35 HUF_Co46 HUF_Co57 HUF_Wh8 HUI_Af1_39 HUI_Af4
10 HUI_Af511 HRF_Af1_312 HRF_Af413 HRF_Af514 HRF_Co1_315 HRF_Co416 HRF_Co517 HRF_Wh18 HRI_Af1_319 HRI_Af420 HRI_Af5
Types of Households
1 HUF_Af1_32 HUF_Af43 HUF_Af54 HUF_Co1_35 HUF_Co46 HUF_Co57 HUF_Wh8 HUI_Af1_39 HUI_Af4
10 HUI_Af511 HRF_Af1_312 HRF_Af413 HRF_Af514 HRF_Co1_315 HRF_Co416 HRF_Co517 HRF_Wh18 HRI_Af1_319 HRI_Af420 HRI_Af5
Urban Formal African Non-PoorUrban Formal African PoorUrban Formal African Ultra PoorUrban Formal Colored Non-PoorUrban Formal Colored PoorUrban Formal Colored Ultra PoorUrban Formal White Non-PoorUrban Informal African Non-PoorUrban Informal African PoorUrban Informal African Ultra PoorRural Commercial African Non-PoorRural Commercial African PoorRural Commercial African Ultra PoorRural Commercial Colored Non-PoorRural Commercial Colored PoorRural Commercial Colored Ultra PoorRural Commercial White Non-PoorEx-homeland African Non-PoorEx-homeland African PoorEx-homeland African Ultra Poor
Policy Simulations• All Existing Types of Projects have the potential to reduce unpaid work
and facilitate creation and access to basic services EPWP Working for Water; environment sector (Tsitsikamma 2004/05)EPWP Social Sector (Health Trust Fund)EPWP Infrastructure;Access roads and Water Reticulation (SCIP
Engineering Group)
• Options for Job allocation scheme Jefes variation by population weights (part time year around)NREGA scheme (100 days)Poverty weights-normalized by populationUnemployment weights normalized by poverty incidence
• Target population Poor and ultra poor households comprising (50% of the
unemployed); “unskilled” wages according to programme stipulations and skilled according to SAM
Impact of EPWP Injection
ex-ante evaluation of policy scenariosex-ante evaluation of policy scenarios• Direct and indirect job creation (skill level/gender/sector)
• Direct and indirect income received by type of hh• Depth of poverty reduction • GDP growth? Pro-poor growth?Sectoral growth?• Fiscal space expansion?• Impact of new assets and service delivery for participants
and community
Simulation Results
9 billion Rand, full time-year around jobs
• Direct job creation (1,2million)
• Indirect job creation: for every 3 EPWP, another one in the economy is created
• GDP (+1.7%), tax expansion (1/3 recovered)
• Poverty reduction: pro-poor growth!
Costs and Benefits
• Social inclusion • Income-Poverty reduction? This depends on the length
and duration of jobs, wages and targeting method• Asset poverty reduction!!! • Service delivery!!!• Gender equality in unpaid and paid work• Pro-poor development• Monetary cost: 1% of GDP ….?3% of GDP?• Opportunity cost of not mobilizing domestic
resources?
www.economistsforfullemployment.org
Thank you
The International Working Group on Gender, Macroeconomics and International Economics
www.genderandmacro.org
member institutions...
member institutions...we are...a group of economists working towards building a global informal network of academics, policy advisors, institutions, advocates and members of government, committed to the realization of the right to work…
www.economistsforfullemployment.org
we are committed to...joining forces with all who foster public dialogue and seek to promote employment guarantee around the world. Together, we can provide coherent, viable policy alternatives that lead to inclusive and just outcomes for all…
COUNTRIES REPRESENTED
Morocco South AfricaIndia
Costa Rica
ArgentinaColumbia
Bulgaria
United StatesTunisia
Ghana
MexicoAustralia
Canada
Djibouti
Belgium
Turkey
Georgia
Luxembourg
Switzerland
Iran
Brazil