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ENERGY Vol.145,2016

Mcanxixun Information and News Service

Mcanxixun Information

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Contents INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 行业展望 ........................................................................................ 4

Annual Energy Outlook (年度展望) ................................................................................... 4

AVIEW TO 2040 ............................................................................................................................................... 4

(Exxon Mobil Corporation) ............................................................................................................................... 4

2015 能源展望（埃克森美孚公司）....................................................................................................... 4

BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030 ........................................................................................................................ 4

(British Petroleum Company) ............................................................................................................................ 4

2015 能源展望（英国石油公司） .......................................................................................................... 4

GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK ...................................................................................................................... 4

(PLATTS) .......................................................................................................................................................... 4

全球能源展望（普氏咨询） ................................................................................................................... 4

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 With Projections to 2040 ................................................................................... 4

(U.S. Energy Information Administration) ........................................................................................................ 4

2015 年能源展望全文（美国能源署）................................................................................................... 4

WORD ENERGY OUTLOOK .......................................................................................................................... 5

(IEA: International Energy Agency) .................................................................................................................. 5

2015 世界能源展望（国际能源署）....................................................................................................... 5

CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK .......................................................................................................................... 5

（Energy Research Institute,National Development and Reform Commission） ............................................ 5

中国能源展望（发改委） ....................................................................................................................... 5

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) ................................................................................. 5

(U.S. Energy Information Administration) ........................................................................ 5

短期能源展望（美国能源署） .............................................................................................. 5

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels.................................................................................................................... 5

全球原油和液体燃料 ............................................................................................................................... 5

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels ....................................................................................................................... 5

美国原油和液体燃料 ............................................................................................................................... 5

Natural Gas ........................................................................................................................................................ 5

天然气 ....................................................................................................................................................... 6

Coal .................................................................................................................................................................... 6

煤炭 ........................................................................................................................................................... 6

Electricity ........................................................................................................................................................... 6

电力 ........................................................................................................................................................... 6

Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions ..................................................................................................... 6

可再生能源和二氧化碳的排放 ............................................................................................................... 6

U.S. Economic Assumptions ............................................................................................................................. 6

美国经济假设 ........................................................................................................................................... 6


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Chart Gallery ..................................................................................................................................................... 6

图表库 ....................................................................................................................................................... 6

INDUSTRY NEWS 行业动态 ............................................................................................... 6

Oil（石油） .......................................................................................................................... 6

Tycoon pumps $1bn into Canada’s Husky Energy ............................................................................................ 6

李嘉诚向加拿大赫斯基能源注资 13 亿美元 .......................................................................................... 7

‘Teapot’ refiners look to bypass middlemen ...................................................................................................... 8

中国独立炼油厂参与全球石油交易 ....................................................................................................... 8

New Energy（新能源） ...................................................................................................... 9

Wind generation growth slowed in 2015 as wind speeds declined in key regions ............................................ 9

2015 年重点地区风速下降使风力发电增长放缓 ................................................................................. 12

Down on the farm ............................................................................................................................................ 13

走进天津农业光伏园区 ......................................................................................................................... 15

California passes bill to level residential solar playing field ........................................................................... 17

加州通过法案为住宅太阳能创造公平竞争环境 .................................................................................. 18

New Arizona initiative seeks to amend state Constitution to protect solar ...................................................... 18

亚利桑那州新计划旨在修订该州宪法以保护太阳能 .......................................................................... 19

Natural Gas（天然气） ..................................................................................................... 19

Nigeria may lose status among world’s largest LNG exporters – expert ......................................................... 19

专家称，尼日利亚或失去世界最大液化天然气出口国之一的地位 .................................................. 20

South Korea cuts natural gas rates by 6% on lower LNG import costs ........................................................... 20

韩国液化天然气进口成本降低液化天然气价格降低 6% ................................................................. 21

Total boosts European natural gas output in Q1; LNG sales, prices dip .......................................................... 21

欧洲一季度天然气输出增加；天然气销售额和价格下降 .................................................................. 22

Israel, Greece, Cyprus mull joint natural gas projects ..................................................................................... 22

以色列、希腊、塞浦路斯考虑联合天然气项目 .................................................................................. 23

GAIL India to swap US LNG .......................................................................................................................... 24

印度燃气交换美国液化天然气 ............................................................................................................. 25

Minerals（矿产） .............................................................................................................. 25

Union Drops Effort to Restrict U.S. Imports of Raw Aluminum..................................................................... 25

美国工会撤回限制铝进口请愿行动 ..................................................................................................... 26

Mining threatens Mongolia’s fragile environmental balance .......................................................................... 27

采矿正在“耗干”蒙古 ......................................................................................................................... 29

Anglo American to sell phosphate unit to China Molybdenum ....................................................................... 31

洛阳钼业与英美资源集团达成收购协议.............................................................................................. 32

China venture seeks western assets in $4bn quest for acquisitions ................................................................. 32

洛阳钼业正寻求更多收购机会 ............................................................................................................. 33

Glencore looks at sale of Kazakh gold mine as it steps up moves to cut debt ................................................. 33

嘉能可考虑出售哈萨克斯坦金矿 ......................................................................................................... 34

China’s Steel Makers Undercut Rivals as Economy Slows ............................................................................. 34

中国钢材冲击欧美，贸易规则即将改写.............................................................................................. 37


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Clean Energy（清洁能源） .............................................................................................. 39

Ukraine cannot stop using nuclear energy, but must think of new energy solutions ....................................... 39

乌克兰不能停止核能，但必须思考新能源.......................................................................................... 39

Shanghai’s sprawling industrial base will have to shoulder CO2 cuts............................................................. 39

上海：拥抱工业的低碳转型 ................................................................................................................. 41

World business leaders demand an end to fossil fuels subsidies ..................................................................... 43

世界各国经济领导人呼吁取消化石燃料补贴 ...................................................................................... 45

China and US should lead fossil fuel subsidies reform at G20 ........................................................................ 46

中美将在 G20 峰会推进化石燃料补贴改革 ......................................................................................... 49

Coal（煤炭） ..................................................................................................................... 51

China Bans Some New Coal Power Plants, Spelling More Bad News For A Troubled Industry .................... 51

中国禁止新建某些煤电厂 ..................................................................................................................... 52

Traders fear liquidity squeeze in South African coal market ........................................................................... 53

交易员担心南非煤炭市场流动性紧缩 ................................................................................................. 55

Japan fiscal 2016-17 thermal coal price settles lower at $61.60/mt FOB Newcastle: Sources ....................... 57

日本 2016 至 2017 财年热能煤价格定为$61.60/吨 ............................................................................. 57

Trading volumes for US thermal coal futures move higher in March: CME Group ....................................... 58

美国芝加哥商品交易所热能煤期货交易量在三月份有所上涨 .......................................................... 58

Polish Q1 2016 seaborne thermal coal exports rise 64.2% .............................................................................. 59

2016 年第一季度波兰热能煤海运出口总量增长 64.2% ..................................................................... 59

South Korean buyer forges new buying strategy for Colombian ..................................................................... 59

韩国热能煤买家为哥伦比亚制定全新采购策略 .................................................................................. 60

Vietnam Vinacomin's Q1 coal sales rise 6% on higher demand from power plants ........................................ 61

发电厂需求增大，越南 Vinacomin 企业第一季度煤炭销量上升 6% ................................................ 61

China Curbs Plans for More Coal-Fired Power Plants .................................................................................... 62

中国出台限制煤电新政策 ..................................................................................................................... 63

Coal mining giant Peabody files for bankruptcy protection but claims market will stabilise.......................... 64

煤炭巨头 Peabody 申请破产保护但称市场将稳定 .............................................................................. 66

Electricity（电力） ........................................................................................................... 67

Vattenfall CEO says Germany's proposed nuclear risk premium 'too high' ..................................................... 67

瓦腾福（Vattenfall）首席执行官说德国提出的核风险溢价过高 ...................................................... 68

Shutting Australia’s dirtiest coal plant would have “negligible” impact on power prices: RepuTex............... 69

关闭澳大利亚的肮脏的煤电厂对电价的影响“可以忽略不计” ...................................................... 70

100% Renewable Electricity For South Australia By 2030, Greens Propose .................................................. 71

南澳大利亚绿党提出，在 2030 年前，实现 100%可再生能源发电 ................................................. 71

New Graphene Solar Cell Makes Rain-Powered Electricity ........................................................................... 72

雨水供电的新型石墨烯太阳能电池 ..................................................................................................... 74

Renewable Generation Increased By 152 GW In 2015, According To IRENA .............................................. 76

IRENA 表示，2015 年可再生能源产能增长量达到 152 吉瓦............................................................ 77


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INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 行业展望

Annual Energy Outlook (年度展望)

AVIEW TO 2040

(Exxon Mobil Corporation)

2015 能源展望（埃克森美孚公司）

BP ENERGY OUTLOOK 2030

(British Petroleum Company)

2015 能源展望（英国石油公司）

GLOBAL ENERGY OUTLOOK

(PLATTS)

全球能源展望（普氏咨询）

Annual Energy Outlook 2013 With Projections to 2040

(U.S. Energy Information Administration)

2015 年能源展望全文（美国能源署）


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WORD ENERGY OUTLOOK

(IEA: International Energy Agency)

2015 世界能源展望（国际能源署）

CHINA ENERGY OUTLOOK

（Energy Research Institute,National Development and

Reform Commission）

中国能源展望（发改委）

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)

(U.S. Energy Information Administration)

短期能源展望（美国能源署）

Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

全球原油和液体燃料

U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

美国原油和液体燃料

Natural Gas


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天然气

Coal

煤炭

Electricity

电力

Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

可再生能源和二氧化碳的排放

U.S. Economic Assumptions

美国经济假设

Chart Gallery

图表库

INDUSTRY NEWS 行业动态

Oil（石油）

Tycoon pumps $1bn into Canada’s Husky Energy

Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shingis using two of his listed companies to inject $1.3bn into Canadian oil producer

Husky Energy, as the fall in crude prices weighs on the group.


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Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings and Power Assets Holdings will buy a 65 per cent stake in oil storage assets

with a capacity of 4.1m barrels of oil and 1,900km of pipeline in the Lloydminster region, the companies said

yesterday.

CKI Holdings and cash-rich Power Assets are part of Mr Li’s vast business empire that ranges from ports,

property and energy assets in Asia to telecommunications businesses in Europe. Mr Li, who is Hong Kong’s

richest man, also holds a controlling 29.31 per cent stake in Husky Energy.

In the joint venture formed by the three companies, Husky will own 35 per cent, CKI Holdings 16.25 per cent and

Power Assets 48.75 per cent.

The move was akin to a cash injection into the ailing oil producer, which reported its third consecutive quarter of

losses on Monday, analysts noted.

US crude averaged $33.63 a barrel in the first three months of the year, according to Bloomberg, down from

$48.57 a barrel a year earlier.

Power Assets shares traded down

2.8 per cent at HK$75.55 during afternoon trading in Hong Kong, while CKI was down 1.67 per cent at

HK$73.70, both underperforming the Hang Seng index, which traded down 0.66 per cent.

“If you’re cynical, you could say this is a cash injection into Husky. You could also say they are moving cash

around,” said Simon Powell, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UBS.

Mr Powell said CKI and Power Assets did not overpay for the stake and that the investment could deliver a 4 per

cent annual yield.

李嘉诚向加拿大赫斯基能源注资 13 亿美元

香港富豪李嘉诚(Li Ka-shing)正通过旗下两家上市公司向加拿大石油生产商赫斯基能源(Husky Energy)

注入 13 亿美元。原油价格下跌正给后者造成巨大压力。

相关公司昨日表示，长江基建(Cheung Kong Infrastructure)和电能实业(Power Assets Holdings)将买入劳

埃德明斯特地区储油资产 65%的股份，这些资产包括 410 万桶的石油储存能力和 1900 公里的输油管线。

从亚洲的港口、房地产和能源资产，到欧洲的电信企业，李嘉诚拥有庞大的商业帝国，长江基建和现

金充裕的电能实业是这个商业帝国的组成部分。身为香港首富的李嘉诚还持有赫斯基能源 29.31%的控股股

份。

在三家企业组建的合资企业中，赫斯基能源将持有 35%的股份，长江基建将持有 16.25%的股份，而

电能实业将持有 48.75%的股份。

分析师指出，此举相当于向这家问题缠身的石油生产商注入现金。周一，该公司报告连续第三个季度

出现亏损。

根据彭博(Bloomberg)的数据，今年第一季度美国原油价格为平均每桶 33.63 美元，低于一年前的每桶

48.57 美元。

在香港的下午盘交易期间，电能实业的股价下跌了 2.8%，至每股 75.55 港币，而长江基建则下跌 1.67%，

至每股 73.7 港币。两只股票的表现均逊于恒生指数(Hang Seng Index)，后者跌幅为 0.66%。

瑞银(UBS)驻香港分析师西蒙•鲍威尔(Simon Powell)表示：“说话尖刻一点的人会说这是向赫斯基注入

现金。你也可以说他们在调动现金。”

鲍威尔表示，长江基建和电能实业买入这些股份并未付出过高价格，而且这笔投资每年有望带来 4%

的收益。


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‘Teapot’ refiners look to bypass middlemen

China’s independent refineries are becoming more assertive in global oil trading, procuring larger volumes of

crude and buying it directly from the market.

The country’s so-called “teapot” refineries received some of the first import licenses last year as Beijing moved to

boost investment in the energy industry, which has long been dominated by state oil companies Sinopecand

PetroChina.

The teapots — which, despite their nickname, can be substantial buyers, together representing about a third of

China’s total oil refining capacity — have moved quickly to strike deals with some of the world’s largest crude

exporters and are finding ways to procure oil that bypasses international trading houses.

Last month Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals Company bought a spot cargo of crude oil directly from Saudi

Aramco— the state oil company of Opec’s de facto leader and the world’s largest exporter of crude.

Now, the company — one of 11 independent refineries permitted to import crude — will be the first teapot to

trade on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange as it looks to hedge its imports and buy physical cargoes from Oman.

This approach by Shandong Chambroad, say some industry participants, suggests a shift away from the use of

middlemen, whether it is big international oil traders or China’s domestic oil industry giants.

The DME said the exchange will be approaching more independent Chinese refineries in the coming weeks and

plans to hold a roundtable in the country in mid-May “to assist other local participants”.

The world’s biggest trading companies, which include Trafigura, Glencore and Vitol, have aggressively sought

buyers among China’s 20 independent refineries that are able to use imported crude in their plants.

“Some of the teapot refiners have only recently been granted the licenses, so they are still learning,” said David

Wech at consultancy JBC Energy. “They will buy from whomever they can and they will try to buy directly from

sources, but it is still early days.”

Oil analysts say just that just as China’s state-backed energy companies built their own trading divisions to reduce

their reliance on western commodity houses, the teapots are following a similar path. They say it is another

illustration of China’s growing influence on world oil markets.

Owain Johnson, managing director at the DME, said western trading houses still hoped China’s independent

refiners would become firm customers even as some of the bigger teapots become more self-sufficient.

“It’s hard to overstate the level of interest from suppliers and traders in developing relationships with these

guys,” Mr Johnson said.

The majority of China’s refineries are small, local enterprises that will be dependent on bigger players

domestically and internationally for crude procurement.

中国独立炼油厂参与全球石油交易

中国的独立炼油厂在全球石油交易中正变得更加自信，它们加大原油采购量，并直接从市场购买。

这些所谓的“茶壶”炼油厂去年获得首批进口许可证，其背景是北京方面采取行动促进能源业投资；

该行业长期由中石化(Sinopec)和中石油(PetroChina)等大型国企主导。

尽管被称为茶壶，但中国的独立炼油厂有些是相当大的买家，它们合起来占中国炼油总产能大约三分

之一。这些企业迅速行动起来，与世界上一些最大的原油出口企业达成交易，并设法绕过国际贸易公司采

购石油。


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上月，山东京博石化公司(Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals Company)向沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司

(Saudi Aramco)直接购买一批现货原油。沙特是石油输出国组织（OPEC，中文简称“欧佩克”）事实上的

领导者，全球最大原油出口国。

现在，山东京博（获准进口原油的 11 家独立炼油厂之一）将成为在迪拜商品交易所(Dubai Mercantile

Exchange)进行交易的首家茶壶。该公司正寻求对冲自己的进口，并从阿曼购买实物原油。

一些业内人士提出，山东京博的这种做法似乎表明，中国民营炼油厂试图绕过中间商，无论是大型国

际石油交易商还是中国国内的石油业巨擘。

迪拜商品交易所表示，将在未来几周接洽更多的中国独立炼油厂，并计划在 5 月中旬在中国举办一场

圆桌讨论会，“以协助其他当地参与者”。

全球各大贸易公司，包括托克(Trafigura)、嘉能可(Glencore)和维多(Vitol)，都一直积极地在中国获准

使用进口原油的 20 家独立炼油厂中寻找买家。

“有些茶壶炼油厂最近才获得许可证，所以他们还在学习，”JBC 能源咨询公司(JBC Energy)的戴维•

韦克(David Wech)表示。“他们将从他们接触到的任何卖家购买，他们会尝试直接从源头购买，但现在仍是

早期。”

石油分析师们表示，就像中国政府支持的能源企业建立自己的交易部门，以降低对西方大宗商品贸易

机构的依赖一样，茶壶炼油厂在走同样的道路。他们表示，这是中国在世界石油市场上影响力与日俱增的

又一个例证。

迪拜商品交易所董事总经理欧文•约翰逊(Owain Johnson)表示，西方贸易公司仍希望中国的独立炼油商

成为稳定客户，即便某些较大的茶壶变得更加自给自足。

“供应商和贸易商与这些企业发展关系的兴趣极大，再怎么形容也不过分，”约翰逊表示。

中国的炼油厂多数是规模较小的本地企业，它们在原油采购方面将依赖于国内外的更大企业。

New Energy（新能源）

Wind generation growth slowed in 2015 as wind speeds

declined in key regions


10

Source: Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly

U.S. wind generation grew by 5.1% in 2015, the smallest annual increase since at least 1999, as weather patterns

in the Western half of the United States lowered wind speeds and dampened wind generation during the first half

of the year. The same weather patterns resulted in stronger winds in the central part of the country, where wind

generation growth in 2015 was most pronounced.


Wind energy produced 191 terawatthours (TWh) of electricity in 2015, accounting for 4.7% of net U.S. electric

power generation, up from 4.4% in 2014. Wind was the second-largest source of electricity produced from

renewable sources, behind hydroelectricity, and 11 states generated more than 10% of their total electricity

generation from wind. Both the absolute amount of wind generation and wind's share of total U.S. electricity

generation have risen every year since at least 1999.

Wind capacity additions grew by 12.9% in 2015, an increase over the growth over the previous two years. In 2015,

8.1 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity was installed, representing 41% of total capacity additions and bringing the

total U.S. wind capacity to 73 GW. Capacity additions in 2013 were at their lowest point since 1998, when 0.9

GW were installed, due in part to expiring tax credits that have since been extended.


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Year-to-year changes in wind generation reflect both the changes in wind capacity and yearly variations in the

wind resource. Wind resources reflect seasonal wind patterns, which vary based on regional factors and are

subject to year-to-year climate variations. At the state level, three states in the Pacific Census division—California,

Oregon, and Washington—saw decreases in wind generation in 2015, as did most of the states in the Mountain

Census division. Meanwhile, all but 1 of the 12 states in the Midwest region saw increases in generation.

Wind Generation

Wind capacity


Texas continues to be the nation's largest producer of wind energy. Texas accounted for 44% of all wind capacity

additions in 2015; Oklahoma and Kansas, the states to its immediate north, made up another 25%. In 2015, 17.7

GW of installed wind capacity in Texas produced nearly 45 TWh, accounting for 24% of all U.S. wind power.

Texas built a 3,600-mile transmission network that can connect wind-generated electricity from rural areas to

urban load centers. That system and the strong winds on the Texas plains have helped enable the state's substantial

wind generation.

EIA's most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that wind generation will increase 16% in 2016, as

significant capacity additions are expected to come online, adding another 6 GW, or 9%, to operating wind

capacity in 2015. Based on those capacity additions and the expected performance of wind turbines in each region,


12

wind is projected to supply more than 5% of U.S. electricity generation in 2016.

2015 年重点地区风速下降使风力发电增长放缓

资料来源:美国能源信息管理局,每月电力

美国风力发电在 2015年增长了 5.1%,至少是自1999年以来的最小年增,美国西部的气候模式降低了风

速,抑制了风力发电在今年上半年。同样的气候模式导致国家的中部迎来了更强的风,在中部 2015 年风力

发电增长最为明显。


2015 年，风能产生了 191 太瓦时(TWh)的电力,占美国净发电量的 4.7%,高于 2014 年的 4.4%。风是可

再生能源发电的第二大来源,水力发电是第一,11 个州产生的电力超过了全美总风力发电的 10%。风力发电

和全美发电量中风能发电所占的份额的绝对数量自 1999 年以来每年都有有所增加。

风能发电能力的增加在 2015 年增长了 12.9%,超过了过去两年增加的能力。2015 年,8.1 千瓦风电装机

容量被安装,占了了总风电产能增加值的 41%,使全美风力发电产能达到 73 兆瓦。2013 年增加的产能达到了

1998 年以来的最低点,当时 0.9 千瓦风电装机容量被安装,部分原因是税收抵免自扩展之后到期。

风力发电年同比变化反映了风能发电产能的变化和每年的风力资源的变化。风力资源反映了季风模式,

季风模式随区域因素变化和并与气候的逐年变化相一致。在州一级, Pacific Census 区域的三个州——加州,


13

俄勒冈州和华盛顿——2015 年风力发电减少了, Mountain Census 区域的州也呈现了同样的趋势。几乎与此

同时,中西部地区的 12 个州中除了 1 个州风力发电却增加了。

风力发电

风力发电产能


德州仍然是全国最大的风力发电区域。德克萨斯州占 2015 年所有风电装机容量增加额的 44%;俄克拉

荷马州和堪萨斯州,位于德克萨斯州北部,占了另外的 25%。2015 年,德克萨斯州安装的风力发电产能的 17.7

兆瓦产生了近 45 TWh 的电,占美国风能的 24%。德克萨斯州建造了 3600 英里的传输网络，该网络可以将

风能发出的电输送给从农村到城市中心的各个地区。德州平原上的系统和强风帮助该州大量的风力发电成

为可能。

EIA最近的短期能源展望项目,风力发电在2016年将增加 16%,重要的产能增加计划将上线,增加另一个

6 GW,或 9%,去运作 2015 年风电装机容量。基于这些风力发电机的容量增加和预期的每个地区风力涡轮机

的性能,2016 年风力发电提供的电量预计将超过总发电量的 5%。

Down on the farm


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A Chinese pilot shows how 'solar plus agriculture' is emerging as an innovative model in the country's efforts to

upgrade its energy industry, report Li Ying and Feng Hao

Attaching solar panels to the roof of a greenhouse sounds simple enough. In practice, however, there are

complications. What if the panels block out too much light? How do you covert the energy into power for the

greenhouse? China already wastes lots of solar power so why create more? And how to classify it – as an

industrial project or agricultural land?

chinadialogue visited Nesi Solar’s in Tianjin in search of answers.

From a distance Nesi Solar Farm looks like any other solar farm, with rows of black rectangular panels that stretch

on for miles. But enter by the back way and it feels more like a giant greenhouse.

Agricultural solar projects have been around for over a decade but farms like this, which combine PV solar power

generation with modern greenhouse agriculture, are still quite new to China. The Tianjin project covers 1,000 mu

(0.7 square kilometres) and can generate 20MW of power. Beneath the blooming plant beds greenhouse

technology is constantly at work, regulating the temperature, removing pests and distirbuting water.

The owners claim that their upgraded, integrated power grid saves them around 10,000 yuan (US$1,539) per

Chinese mu (666 square metres) of greenhouse. And by installing the panels the overall productivity output of the

land has increased.

Midnight blooms

To avoid blocking sunlight needed by the plants the panels have been arranged according to the plants' growth

patterns. In 'PV agriculture', as its called, greenhouses are typically either half or completely covered in panels,

according to the needs of the crops being grown.

Half-covered greenhouses are used to grow saplings and vegetables. Fully covered greenhouses make ideal homes

for mushrooms.

Power up

You might think that electricity drawn from the solar panels is fed back into the greenhouse’s irrigation, heating

and lighting system but in fact all the power generated is sold to a local grid. As far as the accounts are concerned,

the two businesses are separate.

Many farms start in agriculture and when this becomes unprofitable they turn to power generation as a second

source of income. For companies like Nesi the primary source of income is the electricity, not crops.

Gao Xianggen, deputy head of the China Photovoltaic Agricultural Working Committee, told chinadialogue that

problems can arise when power generation is given priority over agriculture as food production could be

disrupted.

So how do farms strike the right balance? According to a spokesperson for Nesi, the immediate plan is for the

solar business to support the agricultural arm. In the future, they might expand into ecotourism.

But combining the two different types of infrastructure over a long timeframe can be problematic. Jiang Kejuan, a

researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission’s Energy Research Institute explained that most

solar power installations in China are built on permanent structures and have a lifespan of 25-35 years. However,

agricultural greenhouses need to be replaced every 3-5 years. Nesi Solar has made great efforts to improve its

greenhouse structure to ensure it lasts for at least 20 years – but most greenhouse don’t yet share this design.

Not all energy is created equal

The latest figures from the National Energy Administration (NEA) show that in 2015, 15GW of new solar

capacity was installed in China, up 41% on the previous year and accounting for 25% of all new solar capacity

globally.


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This means China has overtaken Germany to become the world’s biggest generator of solar power. However, 20%

of kilowatt hours of solar energy was wasted last year because of China's creaking grid systems which are difficult

or impossible for new energy supplies to connect to. In Gansu far western China 31% of solar power was wasted

last year.

With so much solar power going to waste is there a justification for further expansion? Jiang explained that the

wastage comes from large wind and solar plants. Agricultural solar power plants are small and unlikely to be more

than 60MW in size, which means most grid systems can by all the power they generate.

The NEA’s 13th Five-Year Plan has mandated the rapid development of China's distributed solar sector. This will

mostly take the form of rooftop installations on buildings in industrial parks and development zones, and on

public buildings and private homes. It also mentioned plans to build solar power generators on farmland and even

fish farms – hence the new rise of agricultural solar. Chinese leaders have predicted solar capacity to reach 70 GW

by 2020 – giving huge scope for expansion in the agricultural solar sector.

Industry standards

But growth will not come without risk. In most cases agricultural solar can be classed as agricultural infrastructure.

That means there’s no need to apply for permission to change the use of agricultural land. But a recent

investigation by the land and agricultural authorities in Yunnan province, southwest China, found PV agriculture

projects are classed as construction, which means farmers will have to get new permits of risk the consequences.

At Nesi, the land was previously lying empty so reclassification was not needed.

Currently the solar sector has always been tightly regulated by local and central government. But in recent years

the industry has exploded and the old pricing system is struggling to keep up. In 2014 the NEA said renewable

energy subsidies would be reduced on a regional basis. In some provinces industry insiders complain that

subsidies are not being paid at all.

This year’s government work report called for the development of energy-saving and environmentally-friendly

industries, with these set to become one of China’s main economic pillars. However, there are still no universal

industry standards or inspection bodies for China’s agricultural solar sector.

Industry standards are unlikely to emerge soon. More likely to emerge are standards for broader sectors, such as

solar power generation, mushroom farming and fish and livestock farming. For the meantime, agricultural PV

farmers will continue to wear many hats.

走进天津农业光伏园区

在常规的农业蔬菜大棚顶上铺设太阳能光板，棚上发电、棚下种菜，听起来很美好。但是，铺设的光

板会不会遮挡阳光，影响棚下作物的生长？电力能自产自销，用于棚内的调温照明吗？如今“弃光”严重，

为什么还要在农业大棚上架设光板？另外，中国历来有“耕地红线不能碰”的严格政策，即为了确保粮食

安全，经常进行耕种的土地面积最低值要坚守在 18 亿亩。而光伏农业大棚这种半工半农的业态，土地性

质又是什么呢？

带着一大串的疑问，中外对话走访了光伏农业公司昌盛日电在天津的项目部。

从天津南站驱车，20 分钟左右就到达了园区。远远地就看到一排排整齐的光伏电板，和其他的光伏电

站好像并没有什么差别。但是，走到背光一面，完全就是另一番景象了，从棚高到架构，以及棚内隐隐透

出的绿色，完全是典型的蔬菜温室大棚。

遮住了阳光，作物怎么生长？

光伏农业是将太阳能发电与现代温室大棚相结合的产业形态。天津园区项目经理尹虹介绍说，所谓“棚

上产电，棚下种菜”的重点在于大棚基本架构的共用，并在大棚的向阳面部分或全部铺设太阳能发电装置。

以建成占地 1000 亩的天津农光园区为例，装机容量可以达到 20 兆瓦；同时，现代农业温室的设备也一应


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俱全，运用智能设备为棚内的农作物调温、除虫、补水以及补光。

光伏电站与农业共用部分的基础和支架，在成本上形成分摊，农业部分的建设成本每亩可以节约超过

1 万元。更重要的是，光伏和农业在土地利用上可以互补，这种综合利用土地资源的生产方式，可以增加

单位面积土地产出，更好地发挥土地的收益潜力。

但是，向阳部分铺设了电板，会不会影响农作物的基本采光需求呢？因为在共用棚顶的情况下，太阳

能光板的排布方式、角度、密度就不再仅仅取决于光伏组件的转换效率，棚内作物的生长情况也是重要的

考量范畴。

换句话说，透光率高，发电效率就降低，这两者不可以兼得。针对其中明显的内在矛盾，农光园区在

规划的时就按照栽种农产品的需要，分为半罩式和全罩式。半罩式的大棚栽种适应弱光环境的农业种植品

种，比如茶叶、喜阴的苗木和蔬菜等；全罩式的大棚则栽种食用菌类产品。另外，农光企业也从产品的经

济附加值上做文章，力图建立农产品食品安全信息化追溯体系。

棚上发的电，棚内用不上

温室棚内运用智能设备控制灌溉、照明和调温，需要使用电力，而棚上放置的太阳能板就在发电，电

力会优先供大棚内使用吗？并不是这样，园区生产的全部电力都会并入国家电网。换句话说，农业和光伏

在盈利模式上是两条线。

具体而言，光伏科技企业的主要营收来源还是在光伏发电，而非农业作物。事实上，第一产业不挣钱，

企业往往“理性”地转向发电收益。中国光伏农业工作委员会副会长、高级工程师高祥根接受中外对话采

访时强调，农光项目在实施中存在轻农重光的问题。

那么，光伏与农业领域究竟如何融合？昌盛日电的相关负责人告诉中外对话，公司以长线模式运营，

就要考虑不同的发展周期。在园区初期，希望以光伏发电为主要盈利点，通过光伏发电的收入补贴农业的

发展，尽力提高农业产品的附加值，发展生态旅游、概念旅游等方向。到成熟期，农业运营成为主要盈利

点，理想状态能通过农业收入补贴光伏电站基础的运营和维护费用。

但是，国家发改委能源研究所研究员姜克隽提出，农业和光伏两套设施的结合存在矛盾点。他介绍说，

现在国内的光伏设施平均寿命可以达到 25 年，有的设施甚至可以达到 30-35 年，光伏设施的基本架构可以

保持稳定。但是农业大棚的设施经常会有变化。从农作物种植的现实来看，一般的农业大棚的使用寿命平

均也就是 3-5 年，农产品也会在产量的基础上发生变动。昌盛日电天津园区的大棚在设计规划是投入了大

量精力完善加强设施，确保这里的农业大棚可以使用至少 20 年。类似的投入在业内目前还比较罕见。

此光非彼光

根据国家能源局最新统计数据，光伏发电 2015 年新增并网装机容量超过 1500 万千瓦，同比增长 41%，

占全球新增装机的四分之一以上，超越德国成为全球光伏发电装机容量最大的国家。同时，数据显示，2015

年全年全国累计光伏发电量 392 亿千瓦时，弃光电量约 80 亿千瓦时，弃光率约为 20%，最为严重的甘肃，

弃光率达到了 31%。

这么多的电力产出无法有效实现并网，光伏还有发展前景吗？事实上，在现代农业发达的地区，农光

结合仍是政策的导向。姜克隽解释说，现在是大型的光伏和风机发电厂出现了“弃光”和“弃风”等问题，

农村光伏分布式发电普遍没有超过 6000 千瓦，国家电网基本上会照单全收。

根据能源局公布的光伏“十三五”规划，分布式光伏发电将会进入快速发展时期。所谓分布式光伏发

电系统是以大型工业园区，经济开发区，公共设施，居民住宅等为主要依托的屋顶式发电系统。而在这个

大的前提下，规划鼓励以农业、渔业设施为依托，建设渔光互补和农光互补光伏发电集中区。可以说农业

光伏正是顺应这一潮流的新型业态。规划提出十三五期间分布式光伏发电系统装机容量要达到 7000 万千

瓦，这也给农业光伏的发展提供了广阔的前景。

亟待制定的行业标准

随着“十三五”新能源规划的出炉，业内普遍认为光伏发电将迎来新一轮的快速增长。但是在增长的

大趋势下，行业也面临着风险。


17

一般认为，农业光伏用地属于设施农业用地，也就是直接用于农产品生产的设施用地，按照相关的管

理条例，设施农业用地不需要办理农用地专用审批手续，但近日，云南省国土资源厅、云南省农业厅联合

调研组在设施农用地管理情况的调研中认为，根据国土资源部的现行政策，农业光伏用地属于建设用地，

应办理农用地转用和土地征收手续。

尹虹告诉中外对话，天津项目园区所占土地之前为荒地或闲置土地，并不会改变原有土地的性质。

目前，光伏应用领域仍然属于政策导向型产业，国家和地方的扶持政策对于光伏电站的建设和运营影

响重大。近几年，由于我国光伏电站规模猛增，原有的电价补贴体系难以支撑国内光伏市场的扩容。国家

能源局于 2014 年下文，未来几年光伏上网电价按地区逐年递减。此外，业内人士透露，部分地区还存在

补贴拖欠的情况。

今年政府工作报告提到，要大力发展节能环保产业，把节能环保产业培育成我国发展的一大支柱产业。

光伏农业作为更加符合生态环境建设要求的产业，对电站品质和农业效益都提出了更高的要求。

但是，技术不断创新、市场不断扩容的光伏农业依然没有统一的行业标准。采访中，天津园区负责人

告诉中外对话，由于没有统一的标准，不少企业只是打着光伏农业的幌子，把土地流转过来。实际上，大

棚下面只是象征性的种些农作物，企业根本不关心农业效益。

而因为同时涉及到第一、第二、第三产业，行业标准的制定并不容易。高祥根表示，短期内指望标准

全面出台不符合客观规律，按照局部的子模块或者分支模块，比如从菌光、渔光、畜禽（牧）光等入手，

或许是更现实的选择。

California passes bill to level residential solar playing

field

The Assembly Utilities & Commerce Committee passed bill 2339 on Wednesday at a 10-2 vote in a crucial bid to

give all state consumers equal access to rooftop solar regardless of utility territory.

The bill presently awaits final ratification from the Assembly floor.

Prior to this legislative update, solar access in California was predetermined based on location and particular

utility. The bill aims to make rooftop solar systems equally available in all utilities across the state regardless of

location; giving consumers a level playing field in terms of access to solar.

Traditionally, Californians under a municipal utility had a lesser chance to be compensated under the net metering

scheme. The bill aims to use consistent methodology to calculate caps on net metering in municipal utility

territories and to calculate caps by the investor-owned utilities, to create a unified standard.

The bill comes at a welcome time amidst a host of net metering controversy across California and neighbouring

state Nevada.

“At its core, this is a consumer protection bill,” said Assembly member Jacqui Irwin, author of the bill.

“Everyone in California should have equal access to solar energy regardless of what city they live in."

Co-author of the bill, Evan Low, also commented: “Solar energy makes sense everywhere in California. Rooftop

solar brings jobs, cleaner air, and energy reliability for all Californians.”

The bill is a significant continuation to solar progress made in the state. In January, the California Public Utilities

Commission voted to protect net metering for consumers living in investor-owned utility territories around central,

coastal and southern California. Now, under AB 2339, some forty municipal utility-served districts will be able to

offer net metering under far more favourable rules.

The bill supplements the serious solar policy dialogue that was started on the back of the Aliso Canyon gas leak.


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In order to mitigate predicted power disruptions, the Brown Administration released an action plan packed with

solar incentives including solar PV and solar thermal solutions. The California Solar Energy Industries

Association (CalSEIA) highlighted how protecting net metering evenly for all consumers is the logical next step.

“Rooftop solar power has always made sense in California, and the accident at Aliso Canyon makes this solution

even more apparent,” said Bernadette Del Chiaro, executive director of the CalSEIA, in a statement. “Protecting

net metering for all consumers is key to tapping into California’s abundant and clean solar energy, creating jobs,

and saving consumers money.”

加州通过法案为住宅太阳能创造公平竞争环境

公共事业和商业委员会大会于上周三以 10-2 的投票通过 2339 法案，使该州所有消费者无论公共部门

领域拥有平等机会来获得屋顶太阳能。

该法案目前等待议会议员的最终批准。

在立法更新之前，加州太阳能获取基于位置及特定公共部门。该法案旨在使屋顶太阳能系统在该州所

有公共部门平等获取，而无需考虑位置，在获得太阳能方面，为消费者提供一个公平的竞争环境。

传统上，市政公共事业下的加州人有比较少的机会得到净计量计划的补偿。该法案旨在使用统一的方

法，计算各个公共部门领域净计量的上限，并且由投资者所由公共部门计算上限，打造一个统一的标准。

该法案到来受到欢迎，正值加州和邻州内华达州出现众多净计量争议。

该法案的著者杰奎·欧文(Jacqui Irwin)表示：“在其核心，是消费者保护法案。每个加州人应该拥有平

等机会来获取太阳能，无论他们居住在什么样的城市。”

该法案的合著者埃文·洛(Evan Low)也评论道：“太阳能存在于加州每个地点。屋顶太阳能为所有加州

人带来就业机会、更清洁的空气以及能源可靠性。”

该法案是该州太阳能进展的重大延续。一月，加州公共事业委员会投票，为生活在加州中部、沿海以

及南部的投资者所有的公共事业领域的消费者保护净计量。目前，根据 AB 2339，约四十个市政公共部门

服务区将能够根据更为有利的规定提供净计量。

该法案补充了在亚里索峡谷天然气泄漏的背景下开始的严肃的太阳能政策对话。为了缓解预期的电力

中断，布朗政府发布一项行动计划，实施太阳能补贴，其中包括太阳能光伏和太阳能热解决方案。加州太

阳能产业协会(CalSEIA)强调对于所有消费者保护净计量平等是合乎逻辑的下一步。

CalSEIA 执行总监 Bernadette Del Chiaro 在一份声明中表示：“屋顶太阳能发电在加州一直具有意义，

亚里索峡谷事故使得这一解决方案更加明显。对于所有消费者保护净计量是利用加州充足并且清洁的太阳

能、创造就业机会并为客户省钱的关键。”

New Arizona initiative seeks to amend state

Constitution to protect solar

Arizona voters could now weigh in or whether utilities pay full credit for extra solar energy.

An industry-backed super political action committee (PAC) voted yes to try and make a constitutional amendment

at the November ballot that would protect current net metering policies, and also alleviate delays in gaining utility

approval to begin producing clean energy. This vote comes at a welcome time, as the subsidy policy is currently in

hot water in other states, notably California and Nevada.

The initiative is known as the Arizona Solar Energy Freedom Act and will succeed in amending state constitution

to protect net metering if it secures 225,963 signatures to allow it to progress to the ballot. The committee


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campaigning for the initiative is led by former utility regulatory Kris Mayes; who was chairwoman of the Arizona

Corporation Commission.

The implications of the initiative are significant for solar in Arizona as it would put a stop to the surplus fees that

certain state utilities have been charging solar customers. The additional bill that solar consumers have been

forced to foot came about as the price of solar modules declined and leasing arrangements increased in popularity.

As a result, utilities devised the extra fees in a bid to get solar customers contribute the maintenance of the grid.

If successful, the initiative would provide protection to solar consumers until 2022, and those who install solar by

then will be allowed to remain under the existing rate plans. In addition, utilities will then be given 90 days to

comply with the new regulations.

Regardless of the initiative, the state’s biggest utility, Arizona Public Service, is set to file a rate case in June that

could make major change to solar rates; which could reduce its peak loads during times of highest demand and

potentially reduce the amount of power to be delivered at any one time.

亚利桑那州新计划旨在修订该州宪法以保护太阳能

亚利桑那州选民现在可以权衡公共部门是否为额外太阳能支付全额抵免。

业界支持的超级政治行动委员会(PAC)在十一月投票中支持一项宪法修正案，其将保护目前的净计量

政策，还缓解生产清洁能源所需的公共部门审批的延迟。这一投票受到欢迎，正值其他州的补贴政策目前

陷入困境，特别是加州和内华达州。

该计划被称为亚利桑那州太阳能自由法案，如果在投票中其获得 225,963 个签名允许其发展，将成功

修订州宪法以保护净计量。助力该计划的委员会运动由前公共事业负责人克里斯·梅耶斯(Kris Mayes)领导，

他曾担任亚利桑那州公司委员会主席。

该计划对于亚利桑那州太阳能产生巨大影响，其将制止某些州的公共部门一直向太阳能客户收取的剩

余费。由于太阳能组件价格下降以及租赁安排流行度提高，出现太阳能消费者被迫支付的增补法案。其结

果是，公共部门规划额外费用以使太阳能客户为电网维护出力。

如果成功，该计划将为太阳能客户提供保护直至 2022 年，届时安装太阳能的客户将被允许保留在现

有的费率计划下。此外，公共部门将被给予九十天的时间来遵守新规定。

除了该计划，该州最大的公共部门 Arizona Public Service 将于六月提交一个价格案，其可能使太阳能

价格产生巨大变化，可能降低其需求最高之时的峰值负荷，并且有可能在任何时刻降低发送的功率。

Natural Gas（天然气）

Nigeria may lose status among world’s largest LNG

exporters – expert

The Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Nigeria LNG Limited, Mr. Babs Omotowa, has raised

alarm over Nigeria’s dwindling investments in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

Speaking at the an event, organised by the Petroleum Club in Lagos, Omotowo noted that with no new

investments, Nigeria would possibly drop from her current position of the 4th world’s largest exporter of LNG to

10th position by 2020.


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Nigeria’s Thisday report quoted Omotowa as saying that NLNG had earned $90 billion revenue since 1999 and

that it has elevated Nigeria to number four exporter of LNG in the world, after Qatar, Malaysia and Australia.

Citing the data on the global exports of LNG in 2014, Omotowa said Nigeria was ahead of other world LNG

giants, including Indonesia, Trinidad, Algeria, Russia, Oman, Yemen, Brunei, UAE, Peru, Equatorial Guinea,

Norway, Papua New Guinea, US, Egypt and Angola.

Omotowa, however, said with no new investments to support Nigeria’s position in the global LNG market, the

country’s position would possibly drop to 10th by 2020.

He said while his company earned $90 billion revenue since 1999, $33 billion was paid to the Nigerian

government as dividend, $6 billion as taxes and $21 billion for joint venture gas purchase.

The NLNG boss noted that his company’s contribution as Company Income Tax and dividend in 2014 and 2015

constituted 14 percent of the country’s annual budget.

According to him, NLNG, which has a global reputation for reliability has also shipped 3,500 cargoes in 15 years.

专家称，尼日利亚或失去世界最大液化天然气出口国之一的地位

尼日利亚液化天然气有限公司的常务董事兼首席执行官 Babs Omotowa 先生，就该公司对液化天然气

(LNG)的投资的逐渐减少提出警告。

就拉各斯的石油俱乐部组织的事件的发言中，Omotowo 评论: 如果没有新的投资，尼日利亚现今世界

第四大液化天然气出口国的地位在 2020 年可能会下滑至第 10 位。

尼日利亚《今日报告》援引了 Omotowo 的发言：日尼利亚液化天然气有限公司(NLNG)自 1999 年起

获益 900 亿美元，而且这使尼日利亚一跃升为世界第四大液化天然气出口国，仅次于卡塔尔、马来西亚和

澳大利亚。

Omotowa 引用 2014 年液化天然气全球报告的数据称尼日利亚领先于其他液化天然气大国，包括印度

尼西亚、特立尼达、阿尔及利亚、俄罗斯、阿曼、也门、文莱、阿拉伯联合酋长国、秘鲁、赤道几内亚、

挪威、巴布亚新几内亚、美国、埃及和安哥拉。

然而，Omotowa 也说道：如果没有新的投资支撑尼日利亚在现今全球液化天然气市场的地位，到 2020

年就有可能下降至第 10 位。

他说道，自 1999 年他的公司获得了 900 亿美元的收益，其中有 330 亿美元作为分红交给了尼日利亚

政府，60 亿美元是税金，210 亿美元为合资企业购进天然气。

NLNG 的老板注意到：作为公司收入税以及（付给政府的）分红，2014 年和 2015 年 NLNG 就为国家

的年度预算贡献了 14%。

据他所言，NLNG 的可靠性享誉世界，15 年内也运输了 3500 船的货物。

South Korea cuts natural gas rates by 6% on lower LNG

import costs

South Korea will cut retail natural gas prices for households and industry by an average of 5.6% from May 1 to

reflect reduced LNG import costs, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said Thursday.

It marks the third cut this year after rates fell 9% in January and 9.5% in March. South Korea cut city gas rates by

more than 20% last year -- 10.3% in May, 10% reduction in March, and 5.9% in January.

"City gas rates have dropped by more than 38% since the end of 2014," the ministry said in a statement.


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Despite the price cuts, the country's LNG demand has been declining. LNG sales by state-owned Korea Gas Corp.,

which has a monopoly on domestic natural gas sales, fell 4.4% year on year to 3.14 million mt in March.

For the first three months, Kogas' LNG sales are estimated at 10.79 million mt, up 1% from 10.68 million mt a

year earlier as its sales over January-February increased 3.4% year on year on a cold snap.

Kogas sold a total of 31.46 million mt of LNG last year, down 10.6% from 35.17 million mt in 2014, which marks

the second consecutive year of decline.

韩国液化天然气进口成本降低液化天然气价格降低 6%

周四，韩国政府贸易、工业及能源部称：由于液化天然气进口成本降低，从 5 月 1 日开始，韩国将会

降低家庭用和工业用天然气的零售价格，降幅为 5.6%。

这标志着今年的第三次削减，第一次是在一月份，降幅为 9%，第二次在三月份，降幅为 9.5%。韩国

去年城市用天然气利率降幅超过了 20%——五月份降幅为 10.3%，三月份降幅为 10%，一月份降幅为 5.9%。

相关部门在一份声明中说：“自 2014 年年底，城市用天然气利率降幅超过了 38%”。

尽管液化天然气的价格下降了，韩国对液化天然气的需求却也在下降。国有企业韩国天然气公司垄断

了国内天然气销售额,3 月份同比下降 4.4%至 314 万吨。

前三个月,天然气的液化天然气销售估计为 1079万吨,较上年同期的 1068万吨增长 1%,销售额在寒流期

间同比增加了 3.4%。

韩国天然气公司去年共销售出 3146 万吨液化天然气，从 2014 年的 3517 万吨下降了 10.6%,这是第二

次连续下降。

Total boosts European natural gas output in Q1; LNG

sales, prices dip

* Production up by 16% to 2.81 Bcf/d

* Startup of Laggan-Tormore boosts output

* LNG sales down 6% to 2.64 million mt

Total's natural gas production in Europe and Central Asia jumped 16% in the first quarter of 2016 to 2.81 Bcf/d,

boosted by the delayed startup in January of its Laggan-Tormore offshore gas field complex in the UK, the French

company said Wednesday.

The company's overall gas production in Q1 rose 2% to 6.44 Bcf/d, but the impact of the rise was soured by a

much lower realized gas prices.

The average sales price in the quarter was just $3.46/MMBtu, down 36% from the same period of 2015 when the

realized price averaged $5.38/MMBtu.

It was also down from the average realized price from the fourth quarter of 2015 of $4.45/MMBtu.

Total also said its LNG sales dipped 6% in Q1 to 2.64 million mt.

The company's overall oil and gas output is expected to rise 4% in 2016, buoyed by the startups since the start of

the year, as well as the expected return of Angola LNG "mid-year" and the Kashagan oil field by end-2016.

Q1 total production averaged 2.48 million b/d of oil equivalent, up 4% on the year.


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"The segment is growing strongly, driven by the rampup of nine projects brought online in 2015 and the startup of

Laggan-Tormore and Vega Pleyarde this quarter," CEO Patrick Pouyanne said in a statement.

欧洲一季度天然气输出增加；天然气销售额和价格下降

*产量增长 16%，开采量升至二十亿八千一百万立方英尺每天

*Laggan-Tormore 气田启动，产量增加

*液化天然气销售额下降 6%，至 264 万吨

法国公司周三称: 由于英国 Laggan-Tormore 海上气田在一月份延迟启动,欧洲和中亚的天然气总产量

在 2016 年第一季度增长了 16%,达到二十亿八千一百万立方英尺每天。

公司在 Q1 的天然气总产量第一季度上涨 2%,至六十亿四千四百万立方英尺每天，但是因天然气产量

上升带来的影响却被低得多的天然气实际价格所抵消。

这个季度天然气的平均销售价格为 3.46 美元/MMBtu，与 2015 年同期相比下降了 36%，去年同季度的

价格为 5.38 美元/MMBtu。

这也比 2015 年第四季度 4.45 美元/MMBtu 平均销售价格低。

Total 说 Q1 液化天然气的销售额也下降了 6%，至 264 万吨。

因（Laggan-Tormore 气田）启动以及安哥拉液化天然气的年中和卡沙干油田 2016 年底的预期回报，

该公司的石油和天然气总产量在 2016 年预计将增长 4%。

Q1 总产量这一年增长了 4%，平均为 248 万桶石油当量。

首席执行官 Patrick Pouyanne 在一份声明中说：“由于 2015 年 9 个项目启动在线运营以及这个季度

Laggan-Tormore 和 Vega Pleyarde 的启动，这一阶段增长强劲”。

Israel, Greece, Cyprus mull joint natural gas projects

The top officials from all three Ministries of Energy met to discuss potential - though highly unlikely energy

ventures.

Ministry of Energy director-general Shaul Meridor met Wednesday with his counterparts from Cyprus and Greece

to discuss potential cooperation opportunities in the energy sector. The session was a follow-up to a meeting held

in the Cypriot capital of Nicosia.

The topics of discussion included the potential of natural gas in the Middle East, the possibility of exporting from

the Israeli and Cypriot reservoirs, a natural gas pipeline to Greece, renewable energy, fuel alternatives, the

integration of natural gas into public transportation, and the laying of a pipe to channel electricity between Israel

and Europe.

Israel and Cyprus have a love-hate relationship when it comes to natural gas. Both countries have reservoirs that

depend on export contracts for development. And both countries are competing to export gas to Egypt. They may

publicly mull constructing shared infrastructure for gas export, but the possibility may be unfeasibly complicated.

Furthermore, Israel can prevent Cyprus from exporting its Aphrodite gas to Egypt and Cyprus can prevent Israel

from exporting its Leviathan stock to Turkey.

How?

Because Israel demanded from Cyprus to participate in the approval process for the development of Aphrodite on

the claim that part of the reservoir encroaches on its territory. Meanwhile, Israel refuses to sign a unitization

agreement between the states to formally delineate the developments of natural gas and oil reserves shared by the

pair which delays the development of the reservoir.


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It is certainly possible Israel is delaying its signature to prevent Delek and Noble from exporting gas from Cyprus

to Egypt before Israel begins exporting. For its part, Cyprus will not approve a gas pipeline from Israel to Turkey

which crosses its economic waters.

The three officials also mulled the export of gas from Israel and Cyprus to Greece. A pipeline from Israel to

Greece would need to be at least 1,100 kilometers long and pass through waters up to 3,000 meters deep a

complicated and expensive option. And Greece only consumes a small portion of natural gas (some 2.7 BCM

annually), making the pipelines an financially unsound proposition.

To reach the next profitable market say, Italy, with its 70 BCM per year would require laying down another 600

kilometers of piping, with more than 100 kilometers passing through the Adriatic Sea, which makes it not much of

an option.

In terms of electricity, the three parties discussed a potential submarine power cable to connect the countries. The

Ministry of Energy estimates such a project would cost €1.5 million. The plan calls for a cable stretching from

Hadera to Vasilikos in Cyprus and from there to Crete and Athens. The Ministry of Energy hopes the cable would

reinforce the energy security of Israel and allow for a future electricity trade between the nations.

In November 2014, the European Union agreed to fund an exploration of the project to the tune of €1.32 million.

Yet even this project seems unfeasible. The evidence is simple since a memorandum of understanding was signed

four years ago, in March 2012, the project has not proceeded in the slightest.

One reason could be that a submarine power cable of 1,520 kilometers (329 kilometers between Israel and Cyprus,

879 kilometers between Cyprus and Crete, and 310 kilometers from Crete to Athens) supplying 2,000 megawatts

is a complicated venture which is bound to incur losses of electricity.

Meridor said Wednesday: “The cooperation between the three countries is part of a strategic step in the energy

markets, which will have both short term and long term effects. Israel’s geographic location necessitates the

maintenance of good ties with its neighbors across the sea, and it will create a new platform for joint ventures.”

以色列、希腊、塞浦路斯考虑联合天然气项目

来自三个能源部门的高级官员开会讨论潜在的——尽管极不可能的能源投资计划。

能源总干事 Shaul Meridor 周三会见了他来自塞浦路斯和希腊的同行，讨论能源领域的潜在的合作机

会。这次会议是在塞浦路斯首都尼科西亚举行的会议的一个补充。

讨论的主题包括中东天然气是潜力,从以色列和塞浦路斯水库出口的可能性、希腊的天然气管道,可再

生能源,燃料的替代品,天然气应用到公共交通,铺设管道来沟通以色列和欧洲之间的电力。

以色列和塞浦路斯之间相爱相杀得关系当讨论到天然气问题时。两国的气田发展都依赖出口合同得以

发展。两国正在为谁将成为向埃及出口天然气的国家竞争。他们可能公开考虑建设共享天然气出口的基础

设施,但可能性可能会难以想象的复杂。

此外,以色列可以防止塞浦路斯向埃及出口 Aphrodite 天然气和塞浦路斯可以阻止以色列向土耳其出口

Leviathan 的油气。

如何?

因为以色列要求参加塞浦路斯 Aphrodite 发展的审批过程，因为以色列声称水库侵占其领土的一部分。

与此同时,以色列拒绝签署一项州之间联合经营的协议，这份协议正式规划了有两个以上国家共享的天然气

和石油储备未来如何发展，以色列的行为延迟了气田的发展。

可能以色列正在推迟其签名,以防止 Delek and Noble 在以色列开始向埃及出口前出口塞浦路斯的天然

气。就其本身而言,塞浦路斯不会同意由以色列通向土耳其的天然气管道建设，该管道横跨其经济水域。

三个官员也考虑了从以色列和塞浦路斯出口到希腊的天然气。连接以色列和希腊的管道将需要至少

1100 公里,穿过最深 3000 米的水域，这是一个复杂和昂贵的选择。希腊只消耗一小部分的天然气(每年大约


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2.7 BCM),使得管道建设成为了一个经济上并不划算的选择。

为到达下一个有利可图的市场,比如每年需要 70 BCM 的天然气的意大利,还需要铺设 600 公里的管道,

超过 100 多公里需要通过亚得里亚海,这使得它从备选方案中排除。

在电力方面,三方讨论了潜在海底电缆去连接不同国家。能源部估计这样的项目将花费€150 万。该计

划要求电缆从 Hadera 延伸至塞浦路斯的 Vasilikos，然后从 Vasilikos 到克里特岛和雅典。能源部希望电缆

加强以色列的能源安全,使未来国家间的电力交易成为可能。

2014 年 11 月,欧盟同意为项目的勘探资助€132 万。然而,即使这个项目似乎是不可行的。证据很简单

因为四年前 2012 年 3 月签署了一份谅解备忘录,该项目没有丝毫进展。

其中一个原因可能是,1520公里的海底电缆(以色列和塞浦路斯之间 329公里,塞浦路斯和克里特岛之间

879 公里,310 公里从克里特岛到雅典)提供 2000 兆瓦是一个复杂的风险投资，因为其将承受电力损失。

Meridor 周三表示:“这三个国家之间的合作是能源市场的一个战略步骤的一部分,将产生短期和长期影

响。以色列的地理位置需要与隔海相望的邻国维护良好的关系，它将为新的联合投资创建一个新的平台。”

GAIL India to swap US LNG

State-owned gas utility GAIL India Ltd will swap one-third of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) it has contracted

from the US with a gas seller nearer to the country to save on transportation costs.

GAIL, in two deals, contracted 5.3 million tonnes a year of super-cooled gas (LNG) from the US starting 2018. Of

this, it reckons 3-3.5 million tonnes will be shipped to India for consumption by local industries like power and

fertiliser plants.

"Transporting LNG in cryogenic ships from the US will not just be time-consuming, but will add a little extra to

the cost, wiping away some of the gain accruing from a Henry Hub linked price for gas," a senior company

official said.

To overcome this, GAIL plans to swap 1-2 million tonnes per annum of LNG from the US with a seller in Africa,

the Middle East or Asia-Pacific.

GAIL has issued a tender seeking expression of interest (EoI) from swapping part of the 3.5 million tonnes per

annum of LNG it has contracted from Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC, US on FOB basis for 20-year period with

supplies expected to commence from Q1, 2018.

"There are suppliers who sell LNG to Europe from the Middle East or East Africa or the Asia Pacific region.

GAIL's US LNG can be supplied to European users and an equivalent volume shipped to India," the official said.

Doing this would help GAIL save on 10-15 days needed for a ship to travel from the US to India and back. For the

other seller, the same benefit will accrue, besides saving on the transportation cost.

"We would like the saving the seller makes through the swap to be shared with GAIL. We believe we can save

40-50 cents per million British thermal unit through the swap," he said.

In the tender, GAIL said it wants to swap some of the US LNG volumes from Sabine Pass with firms that have

customers in countries in which LNG trade is not prohibited by US law and sanctions.

In exchange it wants equivalent supplies on a delivered basis at Dahej import terminal in Gujarat and Dabhol

facility in Maharashtra.

GAIL sought bids from interest parties by May 5 for a five year swap.

The company has two US deals -- one with Cheniere Energy Partners to buy 3.5 million tonnes a year of LNG

from Sabine Pass Liquefaction, a subsidiary of Cheniere, and another a 20-year sales and purchase agreement with

Dominion Resources for supply of 2.3 million tonnes per annum.


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Supplies from both deals begin in 2018. GAIL also holds a 20 per cent stake in Carrizo's Eagle Ford Shale acreage

in the US. Of the US volumes, the company has sold 2 million tonnes of LNG to overseas users.

印度燃气交换美国液化天然气

国有天然气公用事业 GAIL IndiaBSE 0.23 % Ltd 将把它压缩的三分之一的液化天然气(LNG)与离国家

更近的天然气卖方交换为节省运输成本。

盖尔，两笔交易,一年压缩 530 万吨来自美国的冷却燃气(LNG)从 2018 年开始。这之中,估计 300 - 350

万吨将运往印度由当地电力和化肥等行业消费。

“从美国低温运输液化天然气船不仅会浪费时间,还会增加一些额外的成本,除去一些 Henry Hub 天然

气价格的积累,”公司的一位高级官员说。

为了克服这一点,盖尔计划每年交换 1 00- 200 万吨美国液化天然气与在非洲,中东和亚太地区的卖方。

盖尔已经发布了一个投标为寻求意向书为交换每年压缩的以离岸价格购买的来自 Sabine Pass

Liquefaction, LLC, US 350 万吨液化天然气的一部分，时长为 20 年，供应预计将从 2018 年一季度开始。

“有供应商出售液化天然气到欧洲从中东或非洲东部或亚太地区。盖尔的美国液化天然气可以供应给

欧洲用户，同时相等体积的 LNG 将运往印度,”这位官员说。

这样做将帮助盖尔节省了船在美国和印度之间往返一次所需的 10 - 15 天的时间。对于其他卖家,将收

获同样的收益,还节省运输成本。

“我们希望通过与盖尔的交换共享卖方可以得到好处。我们相信我们可以节省 40 - 50 美分每百万英热

单位通过交换。”他说。

在招标中,盖尔说它想交换一些来自 Sabine Pass 的美国液化天然气与这样的公司，它们拥有 LNG 的交

易不被美国法律和制裁禁止的国家的客户。

作为交换,它希望最后输送到位于 Maharashtra 的 Gujarat and Dabhol 设备的进口终端的供应量是相等

的。

盖尔在 5 月 5 日之前都接受感兴趣的卖方的投标，交换期为五年。

该公司有两个美国的交易——一个与 Cheniere Energy Partners 达成的从其处每年购买 350 万吨的

Sabine Pass Liquefactin 液化天然气液化,Sabine Pass Liquefactin 是 Cheniere 的子公司,另一个交易长达 20 年

和是与 Dominion Resources 签订的采购协议，每年供应量为 230 万吨。

来自这两个交易的供应从 2018 年开始。盖尔还持有 Carrizo's Eagle Ford Shale 20%的股份。该公司已

向海外用户售出了 200 万吨液化天然气。

Minerals（矿产）

Union Drops Effort to Restrict U.S. Imports of Raw

Aluminum

HONG KONG — The United Steelworkers union has suspended indefinitely an unusual effort to push the United

States government to restrict all aluminum imports after the campaign ran into opposition from aluminum

companies, the Canadian government and even Canadian members of the union.

The union on Friday withdrew its petition to an American trade panel, which was filed the preceding Monday,


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after an aluminum industry group agreed to work with the union to address its main concern: Chinese aluminum

production overcapacity and exports. “The Aluminum Association shares many of the concerns expressed by the

United Steelworkers regarding Chinese aluminum overproduction,” the group said in a statement. “Overcapacity

must be addressed to maintain a vibrant and healthy North American aluminum industry.”

The statement provided no specifics, saying only that, “The industry supports ongoing efforts by the U.S. and

Chinese governments to address this critical issue.”

China’s aluminum exports have surged as the country’s economy slows. Those exports have displaced Canadian

exports in some international markets, triggering an increase in Canadian shipments to the United States, where

they now account for two-thirds of all American imports of raw aluminum.

At the same time, American companies including Alcoa have also been expanding in countries including Canada,

Iceland and Saudi Arabia while closing less efficient operations in the United States.

The union tried to address the issue by invoking Section 201 of the 1974 Trade Act — an obscure trade law not

employed since 2001, when President George W. Bush used it to restrict steel imports. That nearly set off a trade

war with the European Union. In a Section 201 case, American industries or unions facing serious injury from

imports may seek broad tariffs on imports from around the world rather than from a particular country.

The union’s petition triggered a strong reaction from government officials and workers in Canada, especially in

the province of Quebec. That was awkward for the United Steelworkers, which represents workers across North

America.

Although it withdrew the petition, the union said on Friday: “We believe the Section 201 case would have resulted

in immediate price increases that would have helped to maintain domestic production and employment as well as

ensuring that producers in the United States and Canada would be able to obtain a fairer price for their products.”

Section 201 cases are handled initially by the United States International Trade Commission, a bipartisan panel of

trade experts in Washington. But the final decision is made by the president, who decides whether to follow

recommendations from the commission. Cases that involve substantial imports from Canada or Mexico are

sometimes slightly harder for American industries and unions to win because they are covered by the North

American Free Trade Agreement.

美国工会撤回限制铝进口请愿行动

香港——美国钢铁工人联合会(United Steelworkers)之前开展行动，推动美国政府限制所有铝材进口，

但在遭到铝业公司、加拿大政府和甚至该工会的加拿大成员的反对之后，他们无限期暂停了这项不同寻常

的行动。

上周五，联合会撤回了上周一向美国一个国际贸易委员会提交的请愿书，在此之前，一个铝业行会同

意与联合会合作，解决他们关切的主要问题：中国的铝产能过剩以及铝材出口。“对于中国的铝产能过剩，

铝业协会(The Aluminum Association)与美国钢铁工人联合会有很多共同的关切，”该组织在声明中说。“必

须应对产能过剩的问题，以维护北美铝业的活力和健康。”

这份声明不涉及任何细节，只表示，“美国和中国政府正在努力解决这一关键问题，行业对此表示支

持”。

就在中国经济放缓之际，该国的铝材出口量猛增。这些出口取代了加拿大在某些国际市场的出口，导

致加拿大对美国的出货量增加，目前美国三分之二的原铝进口来自加拿大。

同时，美国铝业(Alcoa)等美国公司也在加拿大、冰岛和沙特阿拉伯等国家进行扩张，同时关停了美国

境内效率较低的业务。

美国钢铁工人联合会试图援引 1974 年《贸易法》(Trade Act)第 201 条来处理这个问题——这项不太起

眼的贸易法上一次动用是在 2001 年，当时的总统乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)用它来限制钢铁进口，


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结果几乎掀起了与欧盟的贸易战。第 201 条规定，美国产业或者工会如果面临着进口带来的严重冲击，可

以寻求对全球进口设置全面的关税，而不是针对具体某国。

联合会的请愿书引发了加拿大政府官员和工人的强烈反响，尤其是在魁北克省。这对美国钢铁工人联

合会来说有些尴尬，因为它代表着全北美的工人。

虽然撤回了请愿书，联合会上周五仍然表示：“我们相信第 201 条案会立竿见影地促使价格上涨，有

助于维护国内生产和就业，确保美国和加拿大生产商的产品获得更公平的价格。”

涉及第 201 条的案件的初步处理由美国国际贸易委员会(United States International Trade Commission)

开展；它是一个代表两党的小组，由华盛顿的贸易专家组成。但最终决定权在总统，他会对委员会的建议

做出权衡。如果案件涉及从加拿大或墨西哥的大量进口，美国的行业和工会要获胜就会稍微艰难一些，因

为那属于北美自由贸易协定(North American Free Trade Agreement)涵盖的范围。

Mining threatens Mongolia’s fragile environmental

balance

Mongolia’s rush to exploit its mineral resources is using up precious water supplies, writes Lucy Woods

A fifth of Mongolian land has been earmarked for mining. Investors are so happy about this they have given a new

moniker to the world’s second-biggest landlocked country: “Minegolia”.

Mining’s share of Mongolia’s economy has doubled in a decade. Copper, gold, uranium, silver and coal mines

account for 20-30% of national GDP and 89% of annual exports.

Oyu Tolgoi, already one of the largest mines in the world, is expected to expand during the next few years despite

weak commodities prices, and will have an increasing impact on the country’s economy and its ecology.

The International Monetary Fund predicts that by 2021, Oyu Tolgoi will account for a third of Mongolia’s GDP

and that mining’s share of the economy will account for over half.

But the Gobi Desert is more than a vast store of mineral deposits and is also home to many endangered plants and

animals.

“The world is in danger of losing these valuable species into extinction forever,” said Choikhang Janchivlamdan,

a director from the environmental non-profit Green Initiative, when asked about the impact of continued mining

on these desert habitats.

Mining has left water reserves overexploited, he says. Even in rocky outcrops - previous havens for parched

animals - water has disappeared, he adds.

One of these endangered animals is the Asiatic Wild Ass and Green Initiative has observed the species scraping

60-centimetre deep holes into the cracked banks of dried up rivers to quench their thirst.

Other endangered animals native to the Gobi include the black-tailed gazelle, argali sheep, ibex, Mongolian

gazelle, corsac fox, cinereous vulture, steppe eagle and grey wolf.

While mining companies claim to use separate, deep-underground saline water called ‘fossil water’, in reality

many do not. For this, deep drilling and large investment is required, says Mongolia’s United Nation’s

Development Programme (UNDP) deputy representative, Thomas Eriksson. Instead of fossil water, mines use

precious groundwater, polluting and draining water reserves that are shared with animals and people.

According to a World Bank study in 2010, the Southern Gobi region only has sufficient groundwater for the next

decade or so, while herders in the region have testified to the impact of mining on aquifers.


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Despite the droughts and other ecological threats posed by mining, many countries are still eager to follow the UK,

Canada, Russia and China, and invest in Mongolia’s mining boom.

In 2011,Germany signed a coal agreement with Mongolia, Last year, a free trade agreement was signed with Japan,

and a second trade agreement is in the works with South Korea.

Mongolia is heavily dependent on foreign investment, which it makes it difficult to reject proposals from foreign

mining interests - especially from neighbouring China. Some 89% of Mongolia’s exports, which are mostly

minerals, rely on Chinese buyers.

“There are few countries in the world where Chinese trade, foreign investment and global commodity prices

have such an impact,” says Eriksson, as Mongolia “has not yet set aside sovereign wealth (for environmental

protection or health)”

Mongolia is suffering from China’s economic slowdown and has already reacted with emergency austerity

measures.

“This country is in deep trouble” says Sukhgerel Dugersuren, executive director of NGO Oyu Tolgoi Watch,

expressing her concerns.

“A lot of Mongolians would say they have not seen much benefit (from mining),” says Eriksson. Most of the

country still lacks running water, sewage, hospitals and roads.

Yet, according to the World Bank, Mongolia’s economy will likely remain on the up, while poverty levels are

likely to fall.

To help entice foreign investment in mining, and in the hope that multinational companies would build much

needed infrastructure, the government introduced the Land Allocation Law of Mongolia (2003; amended 2005/08).

In it, if mining companies offer compensation for resettlement, and nomads refuse, they lose all land rights.

The law has proved controversial. In response, the Asian Development Bank wrote separate rules for its projects,

adding that the existing law is: “incomplete, imprecise, and fails to adequately protect the rights of affected

persons, ”

Forced to move to inadequate dry lands, nomadic herders give up, sell their animals, relocate to the city and look

for a job.One readily available job is cleaning Oyu Tolgoi roads, says Dugersuren.

“People do not see that as a meaningful existence! You are a nomad. You are a proud person and it’s your

lifestyle. You have all your future plans…then all of a sudden you lose it all. [Mining companies] give you a job

that is collecting people’s trash.”

Desperate job-seeking nomads have also made the migration to an area atop the infamous Nilaikh coal mine.

Located on the outskirts of Ulan Bator, Nilaikh is the oldest coal mine in Mongolia. Closed since Mongolia’s

revolution in 1990, Nilaikh is now covered in rotting animal corpses, piles of discarded plastic and rusting metal

scraps as the government has tried to deter illegal mining by turning it into a rubbish dump. Undeterred,

unlicensed groups still mine the abandoned tunnels.

There are no safety standards and no air testers, and mines are prone to regular collapse. “People lose their

animals and are not experienced in mining,” says one local who did not want to be named. “They go down till

their legs get weak. Nomads do not know about methane, and so, they die.” According to some locals, at least 10

lives are lost this way every year at the mine.

In an attempt to ‘offset’ displacement and ecological damage, mining companies, and the government, employ

“broad and somewhat arbitrary parameters” a 2014 study, in the Journal of Environmental Management found.

Offsetting might be planting trees to replace ecosystems or erecting a community building to replace generations

of tradition; and the practice does “not sufficiently consider real-world challenges in compensating losses in an


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effective and lasting manner,” the report concludes.

In response to Oyu Tolgoi’s ‘offsetting’, herders took a stand, petitioned and filed a complaint to the World Bank’s

Compliance Advisor Ombudsman in April 2013.

Three years on, the complaint has yet to be resolved.

“For many, it (mining) is a cultural shock,” says Dugersuren. Even the traditional Mongolian boot has “the nose

turned upwards so as not to kick a stone to disturb the earth.”

For the most sparsely populated country in the world, where the main form of transport is still horseback along

zigzagging dirt roads, mass demonstrations against monolithic international mining and finance organisations are

an exceptional struggle: “We are so very few. If we bring together 40 nomads in the Gobi, that is huge, this is a

big thing for Mongolia, but it is nothing when foreigners look at it” says Dugersuren.

Deciding on what action to take can also be confusing, as the same companies that are the source of public

grievances are also claiming to fund public services. For example, the UK mining firm, Rio Tinto reported

providing a local hospital, “but you go there and there is one dental cabinet with a plaque that reads: World Bank

financed,” says Dugersuren.

Alternatives

However, alternatives to economic dependency on mining are plausible and plentiful.

Mongolia’s abundant natural resources are perfect for ecotourism, and adventure holidays. A long-term

government policy to protect tourism “from any negative effects from the mining industry” would help diversify

Mongolia’s economy, says the Oxford Business Group’s 2013 Mongolia report.

“Local management models” could protect wildlife from mining while also empowering citizens, says Eriksson.

The model is already successfully used by UNDP to protect river basins and forests. Nomads become “managers

of the land” and the government “actually interacts with them,” he adds.

Renewables

Reducing Mongolia's reliance on mining would make way for entirely new industries. The country gets plentiful

and strong sunlight, and with an estimated 11GW of wind power that could be harnessed in the Gobi, there is huge

potential for renewable energy.

Investment in Mongolian renewable energy could benefit all of Eurasia, says Batbold Ulziibayar, project contract

manager for energy company, Clean Energy Asia (which developed Mongolia’s first windfarm in 2013).

Wind energy is “low impact on traditional nomadic lives with minimal land use.” But renewables are lacking the

requisite financial inducements, says Eriksson.

With so many investment opportunities and natural resources available to it, the question is what will Mongolia

choose to exploit, and what will it protect.

采矿正在“耗干”蒙古

露西·伍兹在文中指出，蒙古的矿产资源开发热潮正在耗尽其宝贵的水源。

五分之一的蒙古土地已经被标为矿区。投资者们欣喜若狂，给这个世界第二大内陆国起了个新绰号—

—“矿谷”。

在短短10年中，采矿在蒙古经济中的比重已经翻了一番。铜、金、铀、银和煤占据了该国GDP的20-30%，

占年出口总额的 89%。

奥尤陶勒盖已经是世界上最大的矿山之一。在大宗商品价格低迷的情况下，它却可能在未来几年“逆

市”扩张，对蒙古经济和生态的影响也将日益增大。


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国际货币基金组织预测，到 2021 年奥尤陶勒盖的产值将占蒙古 GDP 的三分之一，矿业将占该国经济

的一半以上。

但是，戈壁沙漠不仅蕴含着大量矿藏，也是许多濒危动植物的家园。

“世界面临着这些珍贵物种走向永久性灭绝的危险。”当被问及在这些沙漠栖息地持续进行采矿的影

响时，非营利性环境组织“绿色行动”的主管克劳多·奥古里亚罗和乔伊康·贾奇拉姆丹如是说。

采矿使得水资源被“过度开发”，即便在岩石裸露的地区（这里曾经是干渴动物们的天堂），水也都“消

失不见”了。

蒙古野驴便是濒危物种之一。据绿色行动组织观察，为了找水喝，野驴用蹄子在干涸河流龟裂的岸边

掘出了 60 厘米深的洞。

其它濒危动物都是戈壁上土生土长的物种，包括：黑尾羚羊、盘羊、高地山羊、黄羊、沙狐、秃鹫、

草原雕和灰狼。

联合国开发计划署驻蒙古副代表托马斯·埃里克森说，尽管采矿公司都宣称要使用被称为“石油水”

的独立的深层地下咸水，但由于需要深钻和巨大的投入，现实中许多公司并没有这么做。矿井非但不用石

油水，而是在污染和耗尽人畜赖以生存的水资源。

根据世界银行 2010 年的一项研究，南戈壁省的地下水只够用到未来 10 年左右，而在地下含水层的采

矿活动已经对该地区的牲畜造成了切实影响。

尽管采矿引发了干旱和其它生态威胁，许多国家仍然争先恐后地追随英国、加拿大、俄罗斯和中国加

入蒙古的采矿热潮。

2011 年，德国与蒙古签署了一项煤炭协定。去年，蒙古又先后和日本、韩国签署了自由贸易协议。

蒙古严重依赖外国投资，这令其很难拒绝来自外国采矿集团的合作倡议，尤其是来自中国的。蒙古大

约 89%的矿产出口都依靠中国市场。

埃里克森说：“世界上没有几个国家像蒙古这样受中国贸易、外资和全球大宗商品价格如此巨大的影

响，因为蒙古还不会为了环保或健康把主权财富束之高阁。”

蒙古正受到中国经济放缓的影响，并已经采取紧急财政紧缩措施加以应对。

“这个国家陷入了深重的麻烦。”非政府组织“奥尤陶勒盖观察”的执行干事斯琴格日勒·杜格尔苏

荣表达了她的担忧。

埃里克森说：“很多蒙古人会说他们并没有从采矿中看到多少好处。”这个国家的大部分地区仍然缺少

自来水、排水系统、医院和道路等基础设施。

不过，根据世界银行的观点，蒙古的经济可能会维持高位增长，而贫困程度则可能下降。

为了吸引外国对矿业的投资，并希望跨国公司能够建设起急需的基础设施，蒙古政府制定了《土地分

配法》（2003 年出台，2005/08 年修订）。其中规定，如果矿业公司为移民提出了赔偿而牧民拒绝的话，后

者将丧失所有土地权利。

事实证明这部法律是有争议的。作为应对，亚洲开发银行为其项目制定了单独规则，并且指出现行法

律“不完备、不精确，无法充分保护受影响者的权利”。

牧民们被迫迁移到无法保证生计的干旱土地上，只得放弃游牧生活、卖掉他们的牲畜，搬到城市寻找

工作。

他们能够找到的工作之一就是清扫奥尤陶勒盖的道路，杜格尔苏荣说：

“人们认为这种生活毫无意义。你是一个牧人，你是一个骄傲的人，这就是你的生活方式。你对未来

有着非常完整的规划……但转瞬之间就失去了这一切。采矿公司给了你一个工作，就是收集人们的垃圾。”

绝望的无业牧民们也迁到了另一个地区，就在颇受人诟病的尼拉克煤矿的上边。

尼克拉煤矿位于乌兰巴托郊区，是蒙古最早的一座煤矿。该矿在蒙古改革开始的 1990 年关闭，如今

到处堆满了腐烂的动物尸体、如山的废弃塑料和生锈的金属片。这是因为政府为了阻止非法采煤，把当年

的“黑金”生产地变成了一座垃圾倾倒场。但是，无法遏止的无证采煤集团仍然在废弃的矿井里开采。


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然而，这里既没有安全标准也没有空气检测仪，煤矿还经常塌方。一位不愿透露姓名的当地人说：“人

们失去了牲畜，但并没有采煤经验。他们一直往下走，直到腿软到走不动。牧民们对瓦斯一无所知，于是

因此丧命。”据一些当地人说，每年这个矿上都有至少 10 个人失去生命。

《环境管理杂志》2014 年发表的一篇论文指出，为了“抵消”人民被迫迁移和生态破坏的负面影响，

采矿公司和蒙古政府采用了“广泛甚至有些随心所欲的参数”。

所谓的抵消可能是通过植树来替换生态系统或者为移民建立定居社区房屋来替换他们世代的传统生

活方式；但抵消“并没有充分考虑现实世界的挑战，通过一种有效而持久的方式补偿损失”。

作为对奥尤陶勒盖“抵消”措施的回应，牧民们抗议、请愿，并在 2013 年 4 月向世界银行的合规顾

问/巡查官进行了投诉。

三年过去了，这项投诉仍未得到解决。

杜格尔苏荣说：“整块土地正在被掘尽杀死，对许多人来说这是一场文化冲击。”要知道，就连传统的

蒙古靴都“有个上翘的‘鼻子’，以免踢到石头而打扰地球”。

蒙古是世界上人口密度最低的国家，主要的交通方式还是在曲曲折折的土路上骑马。对这样一个国家

来说，针对巨大的国际采矿和金融机构的群众示威还是一种非常罕见的斗争形式。杜格尔苏荣说：“我们

人太少了，如果能在戈壁上聚集 40 个人，对蒙古来说就是一件大事，但在外国人看来根本不算什么。”

当引起国内动荡的这些企业又声称要出资修建公共设施时，采取什么行动也令人迷惑。比如，据报道

英国采矿企业力拓集团要建一座医院。杜格尔苏荣说：“但你到了那里只看到一个牙科器械柜，上面的标

牌写着‘世界银行资助’，你从来不知道谁在撒谎，谁在做什么。”

但是，除了采矿依赖型经济模式，还有很多其他可行的出路。

蒙古丰富的自然资源对于生态旅游和探险旅游来说可谓完美。牛津商业集团的 2013 年蒙古国别报告

指出，一项保护旅游“免受采矿业负面影响”的长期政府政策有助于蒙古经济的多元化。

埃里克森说，“当地管理模式”可以保护野生动物不受采矿伤害，同时也能赋予公民权利。该模式已

经被联合国发展计划署成功地用于流域和森林保护。在该模式下，牧民们变成“土地经理人”，政府“与

他们切实互动”。

减少采矿将为全新的产业让路。蒙古的年日照时间长达 250 天，戈壁的潜在风能多达 1100 万千瓦，

这意味着该国可再生能源潜力巨大。

能源企业亚洲清洁能源公司的项目合同经理巴特包勒德·乌勒扎巴亚尔说，对蒙古的可再生能源投资

可以造福整个欧亚，该公司于 2013 年开发了蒙古的首个风力发电场。

埃里克森说，风能“对传统游牧生活影响小且用地最少”，但可再生能源仍然“缺乏资金来源”。

杜格尔苏荣争辩说，资金并不缺乏，只是需要重新定向，引导其离开采矿业。

对于拥有如此众多的投资机遇和自然资源的蒙古来说，问题是如何在开发和保护之间进行选择。

Anglo American to sell phosphate unit to China

Molybdenum

Anglo American on Thursday unveiled plans to sell one of its largest Brazilian businesses for $1.5bn in the largest

deal by the UK-listed miner since it announced a restructuring plan.

The sale to China Molybdenum Co of Anglo’s niobium and phosphate mines is the start of the group’s bid to sell

at least $3bn of assets this year to reinforce its balance sheet.

Mark Cutifani, chief executive, said the sale was “another positive step forward in the strategic reshaping” of

Anglo.


32

The deal with China Molybdenum depends upon Chinese regulatory approval but Anglo said it had commitments

from holders of 63 per cent of the Chinese group’s shares to support the transaction.

The company’s shares lost 75 per cent in 2015, though they have rebounded this year and are now down about 35

per cent over the past 12 months. Shares rose 2.8 per cent in London after the deal was announced.

Analysts at BMO Capital Markets said the $1.5bn price was “probably better than market expectations” and could

put Anglo in a stronger negotiating position when selling other assets.

China Molybdenum has previously snapped up assets from mining majors, having bought Rio Tinto’s Northparkes

copper mine in Australia in 2013.

Deutsche Bank and Barclays advised China Molybdenum. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley worked with

Anglo.

洛阳钼业与英美资源集团达成收购协议

英美资源集团(Anglo American)周四宣布计划将以 15 亿美元的价格，出售该集团在巴西一项大型产业。

这是这家英国上市的矿业公司在宣布重组计划后进行的最大一笔交易。

英美资源集团此次向洛阳钼业(China Molybdenum Co)售出的是铌和磷酸盐矿，该集团计划今年至少出

售 30 亿美元资产，以增强其资产负债表。

英美资源集团首席执行官马克•卡蒂芬尼(Mark Cutifani)表示这笔交易是该集团“向战略重整积极迈出

的又一步”。

英美资源集团与洛阳钼业的这笔交易还有待中国监管部门的批准，但该集团表示，洛阳钼业 63%股份

持有者已承诺支持这笔交易。

英美资源集团股价在 2015 年跌去了 75%，不过今年有所回升，目前一年内跌幅收缩至 35%左右。这

笔交易宣布后，该集团在伦敦市场的股价上涨了 2.8%。

加拿大蒙特利尔银行资本市场(BMO Capital Markets)分析师表示，15 万亿美元的交易价“可能高于市

场预期”，而且将让英美资源集团在出售其他资产的谈判中更有底气。

洛阳钼业此前已有从采矿巨头抢购资产的经历。2013 年该公司收购了力拓(Rio Tinto)在澳大利亚北帕

克斯(Northparkes)的铜金矿。

为洛阳钼业提供咨询的为德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)和巴克莱(Barclays)，英美资源集团的合作方为高

盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。

China venture seeks western assets in $4bn quest for

acquisitions

The Chinese miner that is paying $1.5bn for a group of Anglo American mines is on the hunt for more deals,

believing the time is right to pluck prime assets from struggling western rivals.

China Molybdenum said it had more than $4bn available to acquire assets as it looks to expand its international

business further after last week’s agreement to buy Brazilian niobium and phosphate mines from Anglo.

In an interview with the Financial Times, two of CMOC’s senior executives said the company had been “patient”

in pursuing deals but believed the time was right in the commodities cycle to expand.

“We consider this to be the bottom of the cycle,” said Steele Li, executive chairman of CMOC.


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The deal by CMOC is the largest in mining by a Chinese company this year and comes as some miners’ urgent

need to improve their balance sheets may compel them to sell assets they would otherwise keep. Anglo, which

sold the Brazilian mines as part of a widespread restructuring, is using the proceeds to pay down debt.

“Our strategy is to be ready,” said Kalidas Madhavpeddi, chief executive of CMOC International, who said the

group was looking to buy high-quality assets “from people who do not want to sell them”.

“There have been others that we have passed on when we felt that the time was not right or when they were not

tier one . . . we have been patient,” he said.

CMOC, which is listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong and has two large shareholders who together own 63 per cent

of the company’s equity, already owns one of the world’s largest molybdenum and tungsten mines in China.

洛阳钼业正寻求更多收购机会

以 15 亿美元的价格收购英美资源集团(Anglo American)矿业资产的中国采矿企业洛阳钼业(China

Molybdenum)，正在寻求更多收购机会。该公司认为，现在正是从陷入困境的西方竞争对手那里攫取优质

资产的正确时机。

洛阳钼业准备继上周达成从英美资源集团手中收购其位于巴西的铌和磷酸盐矿的协议后，进一步扩大

国际业务。该公司表示，它现有逾 40 亿美元资金用于资产收购。

在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，洛阳钼业的两名高管表示，该公司在推进收购交易方面一直“很耐

心”，但他们相信，现在的大宗商品周期适合扩张。

洛阳钼业董事长李朝春(Steele Li)说：“我们认为，现在正是周期的底部。”

洛阳钼业上周达成的交易是中国企业今年在采矿领域达成的最大一笔交易，当前正值一些西方矿业公

司迫切需要改善资产负债表，使他们不得不出售一些本想保留的资产。出售位于巴西的矿山是英美资源集

团整体重组的一部分，该集团将利用所得进款偿还债务。

“我们的策略是做好准备，”洛阳钼业海外事业部首席执行官卡利达斯•马达佩蒂(Kalidas Madhavpeddi)

表示。他说，该集团正寻求“从那些不想出售资产的人”手里收购优质资产。

他说：“当我们觉得时机不对，或者它们不是一流资产时，我们放弃了一些交易……我们一直很有耐

心。”

洛阳钼业在上海和香港上市，两大股东共拥有公司 63%的股份。该公司在中国的钼和钨矿为全球最大

同类矿产之一。

Glencore looks at sale of Kazakh gold mine as it steps

up moves to cut debt

Glencore is exploring options for its biggest gold mine — which could include a $2bn sale — as it steps up efforts

to reduce its debt burden.

Chinese miners are expected to lead the running to buy the company’s Vasilkovskoye project in Kazakhstan,

according to people familiar with the sale process, following a rebound in the price of the precious metal this year.

Glencore decided to consider a sale after being approached by several suitors and has appointed BMO Capital

Markets and Deutsche Bank to handle a possible deal.

A successful disposal would bring Glencore much closer to its target of bringing net debt below $18bn this year,

and down to $15bn by the end of 2017 — a strategy intended to reassure investors who last year grew concerned

at the Swiss group’s ability to withstand tumbling commodity prices.


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Last year, Glencore’s UK-listed shares were among the worst performers in London. However, the group has

moved to shore up confidence through a series of asset sales, including the $2.5bn disposal of a minority stake in

its agriculture business last month.

As part of its debt reduction programme, Glencore has already struck $1.4bn of deals to sell precious metals in

so-called “streaming” transactions, which give it advance payments in return for the future output from some of its

mines. It may therefore decide on some kind of streaming deal for Vasilkovskoye as an alternative to a sale,

according to people familiar with the group’s plans.

Glencore owns almost 70 per cent of Vasilkovskoye, which has more than

5m oz of proven and probable reserves, through its Kazzinc subsidiary.

Vasilkovskoye produces about 350,000 oz of gold each year and is unusual as being one of the few mines in

Glencore’s vast portfolio where the main output is gold. That means it is more likely to attract interest from

specialist gold miners rather than the financial companies involved in streaming deals.

嘉能可考虑出售哈萨克斯坦金矿

嘉能可(Glencore)正为旗下最大金矿探索出路，这可能包括以 20 亿美元出售。该公司正加大努力减轻

债务负担。

据知情人士透露，中国矿企预计将领跑对哈萨克斯坦 Vasilkovskoye 项目的竞购，今年黄金这种贵金属

的价格出现了反弹。

在几个求购者接洽之后，嘉能可决定考虑出售该矿，为此已委任蒙特利尔银行资本市场(BMO Capital

Markets)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)负责处理可能的交易。

若成功处置这笔资产，嘉能可将大幅接近其目标：今年把净债务降低到 180 亿美元以下，到 2017 年

底进一步降低至 150 亿美元，该战略旨在安抚投资者，去年投资者越来越担心这家瑞士集团对大宗商品价

格暴跌的承受力。

去年，嘉能可在英国上市的股票是伦敦市场上表现最差的股票之一。不过该集团已通过出售一系列资

产来提振信心，其中包括上月以 25 亿美元出售农业业务少数股权。

作为其债务削减计划的一部分，嘉能可已敲定了 14 亿美元的交易，以所谓的“流”交易出售贵金属，

这使其得以从旗下某些矿的未来产量获得预付款。据熟悉该集团计划的人士透露，嘉能可或许因此决定围

绕 Vasilkovskoye 矿达成某种流交易，作为一种替代出售的选择。

嘉能可通过子公司 Kazzinc 拥有 Vasilkovskoye 金矿近 70%股权，该矿的已探明和可能储量超过 500 万

盎司。

Vasilkovskoye 金矿每年生产约 35 万盎司黄金，在嘉能可的庞大资产组合中是少数以黄金为主要产品

的矿之一，这一点比较不寻常。这也意味着该矿更有可能吸引专业黄金矿商，而不是涉及流交易的金融公

司。

China’s Steel Makers Undercut Rivals as Economy

Slows

CARDIFF, Wales — With thunderous roars and flashes of blue light, an electric arc furnace at a steel mill in this

industrial city melts 170 tons of scrap metal at a time, which is made into reinforcing bars for construction

projects across Britain.


35

The furnace, decked out with all the latest gear, helps keep costs down by relying on local scrap instead of

imported materials. It was part of a broad $500 million investment plan to make the steel mill competitive and

profitable.

But China has stymied the strategy.

The steel mill, owned by the privately held Celsa Group of Spain, just cannot compete with Chinese rivals, which

offered products at 20 percent below prevailing rates in Britain. Celsa estimates that Chinese companies at one

point accounted for about half of the region’s sales in a certain type of reinforcing bar, up from essentially nothing

just four years ago.

“It’s nice to have free trade, but it has to be fair,” said Luis Sanz, the managing director for British operations at

Celsa.

The steel industry sits at the crux of a major debate playing out across the world economy, one that could soon be

intensified by a looming change in the global trade rules.

As China’s economy has slowed, the country’s manufacturers, in varied areas like solar panels, tires, aluminum

and shoes, have been in a desperate hunt to maintain sales and avoid layoffs. Looking beyond their borders, many

are offering rock-bottom prices to win orders.

The heavy discounting has fed a backlash. Politicians like the American presidential candidates Donald J. Trump

and Bernie Sanders are railing against free trade, saying the rules hurt domestic workers. Countries are crying foul,

claiming that Chinese exporters are dumping goods.

And the dynamics are getting more complicated, as a crucial provision of global trade rules expires in December.

When China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the country was labeled a nonmarket economy, at the

insistence of the United States and Europe. The technical designation makes it easier to prove that China is

dumping goods in foreign markets, allowing countries to slap tariffs on those products. In March, the United

States imposed a prohibitive 266 percent tariff on certain Chinese steel makers for selling below cost.

Calculating production costs in China is tricky. The true costs are often obscured by politically guided policies

that benefit companies, including state-backed loans at below-market interest rates and free land for job-creating

factories.

Given China’s designation in the W.T.O., the United States, Europe and others can use a proxy country, a locale

with a similar level of income and better data like Poland, Thailand or South Africa, to help determine production

costs. The proxy countries often have higher costs than China, which has greater economies of scale.

China is beginning a global lobbying push to bar the use of proxy countries. Chinese ministers have been meeting

with overseas leaders and with executives of businesses that sell to China. The country is calling for W.T.O.

members to “acknowledge China’s market economy status” and “to adopt the necessary measures as soon as

possible,” the commerce ministry said in a faxed response to questions.

But the rules are somewhat ambiguous, complicating China’s efforts. The 2001 W.T.O. agreement explicitly

authorizes the use of proxy countries through December in cases against China, but it is silent about what happens

after that.

The Europeans and Americans are skeptical about whether China actually qualifies as a so-called market economy.

In a market economy, supply and demand are the guiding forces. In China, the government also plays a major role,

dictating investments, strategy, even when a plant can close.

China’s policies have helped create extensive overcapacity. China makes 50 percent of the world’s steel, 55

percent of its aluminum and 60 percent of its cement, even as its domestic demand has weakened.

“They’re nowhere near a market economy, and it’s delusional to think that they are,” said Leo W. Gerard, the

president of the United Steelworkers Union.


36

The tensions have been palpable in steel.

Celsa and other Western steel manufacturers got clobbered by the global financial crisis that started in 2008, as

demand sank and prices dropped. When the industry started to recover, they faced a growing competitive threat

from China.

In the last three years, Chinese steel exports more than doubled to 107 million metric tons, higher than the annual

raw steel production of the United States. Prices fell steeply, although they have perked up lately on speculation of

renewed demand in China.

The result has been a shakeout in steel.

Celsa has not turned a profit in seven years. ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel maker, announced an annual

loss of nearly $8 billion in February, blaming Chinese competition. Since the beginning of last year, United States

Steel has cut 5,000 jobs and warned that thousands of others are at risk.

“Unfairly traded steel imports have reached historic levels in 2015 and 2016, taking almost 30 percent share of

the domestic steel market,” Doug Matthews, a U.S. Steel executive, testified in a government hearing last month.

China faces its own share of pain.

Hundreds of steel makers are limping along, overloaded with debt and battered by weak prices. The chairman of

Dongbei Special Steel, a large Chinese company, hanged himself in March, days before the company began

defaulting on loans.

The global downturn has created a political firestorm. In February, thousands of steelworkers marched in Brussels,

the headquarters of the European Union, demanding protection from Chinese products.

The issue flared up again when Tata Steel announced plans to sell or close its money-losing business in Britain,

prompting calls for an emergency session of Parliament. Tata has managed to find takers for some of its plants,

but about 11,000 jobs in Britain remain at risk.

“Effective antidumping measures have to be implemented as quickly as possible,” said Wolfgang Eder, chief

executive of Voestalpine, one of Europe’s largest steel makers, warning that “many thousands more E.U. jobs are

under severe threat.”

The political mess could set up a standoff over the W.T.O. rules, since they are one of the industry’s main defense

mechanisms.

The Obama administration has pressed China to follow through on promises of market-oriented reforms, to help

level the playing field. The administration has not taken a public position on whether to repeal proxy country

procedures for China, which would require legislation.

Getting legislation through Congress is even more difficult than usual this year. Trade is a touchy subject in the

presidential election. And the administration’s trade priority is to win congressional approval of the Trans-Pacific

Partnership with China’s economic rivals in the region, including Japan and Vietnam.

Europe, which is just starting to consider the issue, is looking at a compromise, by toughening penalties against

China while still conferring market status on the country. Doing nothing “may well create new and serious

frictions in our bilateral relationship with China,” Cecilia Malmström, the European trade commissioner, said in a

speech in March, adding that three million jobs in Europe depend on sales to China.

The two-way relationship is what makes the trade rules so complex.

If China does not prevail, some players worry about getting stuck with insufficient and high-cost goods from local

factories. “We don’t want locals to go out of business, but we want it to be free and fair,” said Jeffrey Kabel, the

chairman of the International Steel Trade Association, a group in London that represents the entire steel food chain,

including traders, producers and users. A big worry among customers, he said, is that they “won’t have a choice


37

for buying.”

On the flip side, the Celsa production line, with its glowing metal rods, employs about 750 people. Mr. Sanz said

the plant was not yet ready to start layoffs, although the jobs could also not be guaranteed.

“We want fair competition to see who survives,” he said.

中国钢材冲击欧美，贸易规则即将改写

威尔士加的夫——伴随着雷鸣般的响声和蓝色闪光，在这个工业城市的一座钢铁厂里，电弧炉一次可

以融化 170 吨废铁，将它们制成英国各地建设项目所需的钢筋。

这座电弧炉拥有各种最新装备，使用当地废钢铁而非进口材料，有助于降低成本。这是一个综合投资

计划的一部分。整个计划规模达 5 亿美元，旨在提升这家钢铁厂的竞争力和赢利能力。

然而，中国让这个计划搁浅了。

这座钢铁厂隶属于西班牙私人公司 Celsa 集团，完全无法与中国对手竞争，因为中国产品的报价比英

国当前的市价低 20%。Celsa 集团估计，在某个时候，该地区销售的某类型钢筋大约一半来自中国公司，

而仅仅四年之前它们的份额几乎为零。

“自由贸易是件好事，但前提是必须公平，”Celsa 集团负责英国业务的执行董事路易斯·桑斯(Luis Sanz)

说。

钢铁行业处在一个涉及全球经济各领域的重大争议的核心，而全球贸易规则即将发生改变，这个问题

可能也会很快随之愈演愈烈。

随着中国经济放缓，该国太阳能组件、轮胎、铝材和鞋等各种领域的生产商正在拼命维持销售，避免

裁减人员。放眼全球，为了赢得订单，很多公司报出了最低价格。

这样的大幅折扣引发了抵触情绪。美国总统候选人唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)和伯尼·桑德

斯(Bernie Sanders)等政界人士在大力批驳自由贸易，宣称其中的规则给美国劳动者造成了损失。各国纷纷

大呼不公，声称中国正在向国外倾销商品。

随着全球贸易规则的一个关键条款将在今年 12 月到期，情况正在变得愈加复杂。

中国于 2001 年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)的时候，在美国和欧洲的坚持下，中国被打上了“非市场经

济体”的标签。有了这个技术性的说法，要证明中国向海外市场倾销商品就变得比较容易，于是各国便可

以对这些产品征收关税。今年 3 月，美国对一些低于成本价销售产品的中国钢铁企业征收了 266%的惩罚

性关税。

计算中国的生产成本是一件颇为棘手的事情。政治导向的政策会给企业带来一些优惠，比如提供低于

市场利率的国家扶持贷款、为提供就业岗位的工厂无偿供应土地等等，而这些政策常常会掩盖真实的成本。

由于中国被 WTO 视为非市场经济国家，美国、欧洲和其他国家就可以使用一个收入水平相同、但数

据更准确的地区作为代理国——比如波兰、泰国和南非——来帮助确定产品的成本。这些代理国的成本常

常高于中国，因为中国拥有更大的规模经济。

中国已经开始在全球开展游说活动，希望停止使用代理国的做法。中国的部长们一直在与外国领导人

及在中国销售产品的企业高管沟通。商务部在一份回应问题的传真中表示，中国呼吁 WTO 成员“承认中

国的市场经济地位”，并“尽快采取必要措施”。

不过，规则本身有些模糊，给中国的努力增添了变数。2001 年的 WTO 协议明确规定，到今年 12 月

底，针对中国使用代理国的做法将到期，但却没有说之后会怎么样。

中国是否真的有资格获得市场经济的地位？欧洲和美国对此表示怀疑。在市场经济体中，供需才是主

导力量。但在中国，政府也发挥了重要作用，能够决定投资和策略，乃至一家工厂什么时候可以关停。

对于大量的产能过剩，中国的政策起到了推波助澜的作用。即便国内需求有所减弱，中国出品的钢铁

仍占全球产量的 50%，铝材占 55%，水泥占 60%。


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“他们远非市场经济，以为他们是市场经济纯属幻觉，”美国钢铁工人联合会(United Steelworkers Union)

会长利奥·W·杰拉尔德(Leo W. Gerard)说。

在钢铁行业，形势的紧张显露无遗。

于 2008 年开始的全球金融危机导致钢铁需求疲软、价格猛跌，令 Celsa 等西方钢铁生产商遭受了重挫。

就在行业开始复苏的时候，它们又面临着来自中国的日益加剧的竞争威胁。

过去三年，中国钢材出口量增加了一倍以上，达 1.07 亿吨，超过美国一年的粗钢产量。钢价急剧下跌，

尽管对中国需求复苏的预测最近带来了一波价格反弹。

其结果就是钢铁行业的重组。

Celsa 已经七年没有盈利。全球最大的钢铁生产商安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)今年 2 月宣布去年亏损

近 80 亿美元，并将其归咎于来自中国的竞争。自去年年初以来，美国钢铁公司(United States Steel)削减了

5000 个岗位，并警告还有数以千计的人面临裁员危险。

“不公平的钢材进口在 2015 年和 2016 年达到了历史最高水平，占据了国内钢材市场近 30%的份额，”

美国钢铁公司的高管道格·马修斯(Doug Matthews)上个月出席一次政府听证会时表示。

中国自己也在承受煎熬。

成百上千的钢铁生产商正在艰难地维持经营，沉重的债务和疲软的价格令它们举步维艰。今年 3 月，

大型企业东北特殊钢铁集团出现贷款违约的数天前，其董事长自缢身亡。

全球经济下行引发了一场政治风暴。今年 2 月，数以千计的钢铁工人在欧盟总部布鲁塞尔游行，要求

获得保护，免受中国产品的冲击。

这个问题后来又再次爆发：塔塔钢铁公司(Tata Steel)宣布计划出售或关停在英国的亏本生意，以致有

人呼吁英国议会就此召开紧急会议。塔塔的部分工厂找到了买家，但英国仍有约 1.1 万个工作岗位面临风

险。

“必须尽快实施有效的反倾销措施，”欧洲规模居前的钢铁生产商奥钢联集团(Voestalpine)的首席执行

官沃尔夫冈·埃德(Wolfgang Eder)警告。“欧洲还有数以千计的工作岗位面临着严重威胁。”

政治上的困境可能会造成围绕 WTO 规则的僵局，因为这是该行业主要的防御机制之一。

奥巴马政府一直在向中国施压，要其兑现自己有关市场化改革的承诺，帮助创造公平的竞争环境。至

于是否废除针对中国的代理国程序，奥巴马政府并没有公开表态。要实现这一点，需要立法。

然而，今年要让国会通过立法，难度更胜以往。在此次总统竞选中，贸易是一个棘手的议题。本届政

府在贸易领域的优先考虑是让国会批准《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)。参与协定的

成员国包括日本和越南等中国在地区的竞争对手。

欧洲则刚开始考虑这一问题，着眼于达成妥协，方式是强化针对中国的处罚，同时仍然赋予该国市场

经济地位。什么也不做“很可能会在我们和中国的双边关系中制造新的严重摩擦，”欧盟委员会负责贸易

事务的委员塞西莉亚·马尔姆斯特伦(Cecilia Malmström)在今年 3 月的一次发言中说道。她还表示，欧洲

有 300 万个工作机会依赖于向中国销售产品。

正是这种双向关系使这些贸易规则变得非常复杂。

如果中国不能如愿，一些参与方可能会担心自己不得不接受当地工厂生产的数量不足且价格高昂的产

品。“我们不希望本地企业破产，但我们希望能实现自由和公平贸易，”国际钢铁贸易协会(International Steel

Trade Association)主席杰弗里·卡贝尔(Jeffrey Kabel)表示。这个位于伦敦的组织代表整个钢铁产业链的利

益，包括贸易商、生产商和用户。他表示，消费者的一大担心是，他们“不再有权选择购买什么”。

另一方面，能造出锃亮钢材的 Celsa 生产线雇佣了大约 750 人。桑斯表示，这家工厂还没准备开始裁

员，不过这些工作也不能确保依然存在。

“我们希望通过公平的竞争来决定谁能存活下去，”他说。


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Clean Energy（清洁能源）

Ukraine cannot stop using nuclear energy, but must

think of new energy solutions

Ukraine currently cannot stop using nuclear energy, but it must think of alternative energy, Ukrainian President

Petro Poroshenko has said.

"It is clear than neither today nor tomorrow Ukraine would not be able to stop using nuclear energy, diversifying

supplies of energy and striving for energy independence. We must think about new solutions, new alternative and

conventional energy, energy efficiency," Poroshenko said during his visit to Chornobyl NPP on Tuesday.

He said that energy saving will be discussed at once after May holidays at a meeting of the National Reforms

Council. These issues were also discussed on Tuesday by the Ukrainian president and the president of the

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

Poroshenko thanked international organizations and financial institutions, donor countries and partners helping

Ukraine to overcome the aftermath of the Chornobyl disaster. He said international donors at the conference on

Monday decided to contribute EUR 87.5 million to the implementation of Chornobyl projects.

"The documents signed today on the provision of more funds by the EBRD to complete construction of a spent

nuclear fuel storage facility will be one more step in our joint cooperation," Poroshenko said.

乌克兰不能停止核能，但必须思考新能源

乌克兰总统 Petro Poroshenko 说，乌克兰不能停止利用核能，但是必须思考新能源解决方案。

波罗申科（Poroshenko）周二参观切尔诺贝利核电站时说：“很明显，不是今天也不是明天，乌克兰不

能停止利用核能、能源供应的多样化及争取能源独立。我们必须考虑新的解决方案、新的可替代能源、传

统能源、能源效益。”

他说结束五一早国家改革委员会的会议后，节能将立即被讨论。这些问题周二也被乌克兰总统、欧洲

复兴开发银行（EBRD）行长讨论过。

波罗申科感谢帮助乌克兰克服切尔诺贝利灾难后果的国际组织和金融机构、援助国家及合作伙伴。他

说周一会议上的国际捐助人决定捐赠 8750 万欧元来完成切尔诺贝利项目。

波罗申科说：“今天签署的文件中，欧洲复兴开发银行（EBRD）提供更多的资金来完成废旧核燃料的

储存设施的兴建，这是我们共同合作中的一大步。”

Shanghai’s sprawling industrial base will have to

shoulder CO2 cuts

As you gaze out over the Huangpu River from its eastern bank, you see a skyline that epitomises Chinese

prosperity and modernity – the Oriental Pearl Tower and the skyscrapers that surround it.

As would be expected from China’s largest and one of its most prosperous cities, Shanghai is at the vanguard of


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the country’s efforts to switch to lower-carbon technologies.

These, typically, range from green buildings and services that use less water, materials and energy, the promotion

of recycling and reduction of wasteful consumption, and greater use of greener transport, such as electric vehicles,

mass transit and cycle lanes.

Technologies such as green buildings could play a major role in helping the city reduce the rate of increase in CO2

emissions in households and offices. But the city’s rate of growth (since the start of the century its population has

grown 50% to 24 million) will mean that greener urban planning, on its own, would only slow emissions growth,

not reverse it.

That’s because behind Shanghai’s gleaming veneer of a service-based, high tech economy, lies a sprawling

industrial base that accounts for 40% of the city’s economic output and around 60% of its CO2 emissions.

The city is also home to the world’s largest container port, ensuring that shipping (through the burning of bunker

fuel) is major contributor to emissions of CO2 and of smog causing particulates.

If the city’s planners are to deliver a major slowdown in carbon emissions, mundane but economically essential

industries such as power generation, chemicals and shipping and steel will need to install the best available

technologies that cut energy use.

“People in China think cutting emissions means substituting [old] sources of energy with new ones. That’s a

major misunderstanding,” said Zhu Dajiang, director of Shanghai Tongji University’s Institute of Governance for

Sustainable Development.

Zhu holds that changing the energy mix is just one route to reducing emissions. Other approaches that centre on

technology and management systems will be needed if China is going to achieve its goal of reaching peak carbon

by 2030.

Shanghai Waigaoqiao 3rd Power Station has been using new technology to burn coal more efficiently. Its output

of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and particulate matter are now lower than those produced by natural gas power

generation.

Plant manager Feng Weizhong estimates that if all China’s coal-fired power plants were as efficient 60 million

tonnes of the 2 billion tonnes of coal burned per year could be saved, prompting atmospheric pollution to fall

80%.

Besides upgrading energy and infrastructure to make it cleaner and lower carbon, Shanghai will likely need to

increase the share of services and higher tech industries in its economy, and shutdown or move out the dirtiest,

most carbon intensive industries.

For example, the city is currently in talks with Sinopec about moving its refinery from the Shanghai district of

Gaoqiao to somewhere outside the city limits.

But pushing a large share of heavy industry beyond the city’s boundaries is a difficult task, given that these sectors

are major employers and have long benefited from strong political ties with regional officials.

Zhu corrected three common misunderstandings of where emissions come from.

This first refers to the assumption that China can peak its emissions by reducing transportation and building

emissions. Indeed most emissions stem from industrial production, and to talk about an early carbon peak, while

demand for transportation and buildings is still rising, is unrealistic, he adds.

Secondly, people assume reducing carbon intensity (per unit of living space) equates to reducing emissions. Not

so, Zhu adds. Low carbon buildings just reduce the intensity of fossil fuels.

With more people buying bigger houses, carbon emissions are going up, he adds.

Thirdly, low carbon cities cannot be ‘built from scratch’ as some think. The overall speed and quality of economic


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growth are the determining factors, he adds.

Parallels

Wu Libo, an academic at Fudan University, thinks Shanghai can learn from Singapore. The two cities are similar

in many ways. Both are international centres for trade, shipping and finance; both are home to ports with huge

throughput figures; and both are guided by certain Chinese principles.

According to research by the China International Capital Corporation, in 2014 industry still accounted for 26.2%

of Singapore’s GDP (compared to 35% in Shanghai). International Energy Agency statistics show Singapore

ranked 123rd in terms of carbon emissions per GDP unit for 2015, while China was ranked 10th.

The aim of low-carbon development is to decouple emissions growth from economic growth. Low carbon cities

tend to spring up in developed regions, therefore China can expect low carbon cities to take off only when it has

higher GDP per capita.

“Shanghai might need to see per-capita GDP reach US$30,000 or US$40,000 before it can say that has

happened,” said Wu Libo, adding that the city’s per-capita GDP currently is US$20,000 – still much lower than in

Singapore where per-capita GDP stands at US$55,000.

Clusters

Wu Zhiqiang, deputy president at Tongji University, leads a team researching emissions reductions within

building clusters, a much more efficient approach than reducing emissions on a building-by-building basis.

“Green building clusters are a better choice for big cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. It’s hard for a single

building to meet its own peak electricity demand, but coordinating across a community or building cluster allows

power to be better allocated.”

Wu sees cities as living organisms.“And a real organism cannot live apart from its environment. It needs a local

ecology, a regional labour supply, and for the region to better protect its traditions and resources.”

上海：拥抱工业的低碳转型

能源及工业减排是上海这个全球最大城市低碳转型的重中之重，张春报道。

中国“世界工厂”的名号，并不只是世人一句调侃的玩笑，也是中国产业结构深刻的烙印。即便是上

海这样的国际大都市，工业排放也占到了全市碳排放的 50%。重化工业在上海颇具规模，且难以转移。工

业减排无疑是城市减排重点。不过，上海未来的长远发展，更需要高明的城市规划和管理。

戴着工业"脚镣"减排

从上海外滩向黄浦江对面望去，以东方明珠塔为代表的高大楼群夺人眼球。它们象征着这座城市的繁

荣，是很多人脑海中最鲜明的上海印象。

位于长江出海口的这座城市，2015 年 GDP 总量领跑全国，是中国大陆最国际化的大都市和金融中心。

上海港也是当前世界集装箱吞吐量最大的港口。

鲜为人知的是，优越的地理位置也注定了上海要吸纳重化工业，尤其具有举国战略意义的大型国企。

究其原因，用同济大学可持续发展与管理研究所所长诸大建的话说：中国内地的技术以及运营管理能力与

上海悬殊很大！

诸大建说，大型的重化工企业管理要求高，位于出海口的上海进行承接，对国家和区域协调发展来说

是最佳的选择。宝钢(中国最大，现代化程度最高的钢铁联合企业)这样的企业，大部分铁矿原料都是从澳

大利亚、巴西以及印度进口，如果转移到内陆运输加工，运输成本和交通排放也会大大增加。

早在 2011 年就有报道称因为电力、石化和钢铁等重工业仍然是上海支柱产业，碳锁定效应难以避免。

所谓碳锁定效应就是指由于产业结构对传统能源特别是煤炭的依赖性大，导致碳减排困难。


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诸大建认为，放眼未来发展，制造业仍然会占上海 GDP 比重达 30%左右，上海要迅速减排绝非易事。

地方企业也许可以酌情处理。虽然目前尚无定论，但是上海和中石化一直在研究搬迁黄浦江畔、下属中石

化的高桥石化炼厂的可操作性。然而对于不能搬迁的大型央属企业，技术改进还是当下要务。诸大建指出

减排误区现在全国范围内普遍存在，“现在全国一说减排，就是新能源替代。这其实是一个很大的误区，”

诸大建认为，能源结构转型只是低碳转化的一个方向，但是即使努力加速转型，直至 2030 年，中国

一次能源消费结构中仍然有 50%会是煤炭，即使到 2050 年也看不到新能源完全替代化石能源的可能性。

如果只是靠新能源转换，中国不可能在 2030 年达到碳排放峰值。

要解决工业减排这个大头，要走的路有两条，一条是技术，一条是管理。享有全球最清洁火电厂美誉

的上海外高桥第三发电厂，就通过提升技术，大幅度提升煤炭燃烧利用率，并将二氧化硫，氮氧化物和颗

粒物排放降低到比天然气发电还清洁的程度。外三发电厂总经理冯伟忠估算，按照全国每年 20 亿吨发电

用煤计算，如果全国电厂都按照外三的标准进行节能改造，每年可节省 6000 万吨标煤，减少 80%的大气

污染物排放，火电对大气环境的影响几乎可以忽略不计。

诸大建认为外三的技术和经验很值得在上海及全国推广。在他看来，外三的节能环保技术是满足具有

“国际意义、国家价值和地方独创”三个标准的科技创新技术，殊为难得。上海尚存的其他使用燃煤锅炉

的重化工企业如何消化吸收外三的技术和经验，值得探索。

至于管理措施，复旦大学经济学院教授吴力波说，可能要结合碳交易等市场措施来倒逼碳减排的行动，

并期待更多绿色技术在市场作用下出现。

城市布局是未来减排动力

和工业占比一样，城市结构一旦固定也会出现碳锁定效应，要扭转过来很难。比如北京。

很多专家认为北京的交通排放和拥堵居高不下，正是因为规划选择：城市功能太集中，配套功能一环

又一环扩散开去，居住区域大多挪到了城区边缘，平均每天上下班通勤时间接近 2 小时。中国社会科学院

城市与环境研究所所长潘家华早在年前就告诉中外对话，要解决北京的拥堵问题，只能是从规划上将功能

疏解出去。

上海城市规划走的不是北京的道路，多中心和功能混合式发展是目前城市规划的主导思想。

按照上海市 1999-2020 年的城市总体规划，2020 年上海要建成四个中心的现代化国际大都市：航运中

心，金融中心，贸易中心和经济中心。对应不同的功能定位，上海各区域的优势发展方向也做了差异规划。

上海航运中心还在发展阶段，集装箱吞吐量也将进一步上升。到港的集装箱，将通过航运或陆运送达

内地，因此成为上海交通碳排放最大来源。诸大建认为城市不是一个封闭系统。对于城市自身不能解决的

问题，联合周边功能配置可能是更好的出路。他认为低碳发展，要求上海要与宁波、舟山、南京等港口进

行整合，变成一个区域性的航运群体，将陆地运输进行有机分散，而不是只有上海一个点。

在一个多中心而非单极的发展模式之下，每一个城市单元，均强调工作、居住、休闲的功能混合，有

一定的自我服务能力。诸大建说，空间紧凑功能混合的规划可以提高减排效率（单位 GDP 的碳减排）十

倍，而单纯的交通、建筑的低碳减排措施效率只有两倍左右。前者是系统意义上的低碳创新，后者只是简

单的技术改进。

建筑和交通排放，在上海还处于上升阶段。“因为交通和建筑都是消费型的排放，在生活水平还在上

升的阶段，这些排放都是在增加的。”诸大建说。

世界银行数据显示，2006 年中国人均碳排放为 4.9 吨，2011 年上升至 6.7 吨。而同期美国人均碳排放

2006 年为 19 吨，2011 年为 17 吨，呈明显下降趋势。中国的经济还在持续增长，生活水平也将继续提升，

碳排放在一定时期内也会相应提升。

诸大建还提到另外三个减排误区。第一，中国碳来源主要是生产型的工业排放，所以在交通和居住需

求未满足的时候谈减排提前达到峰值，是不现实的；第二，单位面积碳排放强度的减少不等于碳排放总量

的减少，因为人均拥有的住房面积随着经济发展是上升的；第三，低碳城市其实是发展问题，中国还在发

展，必然会有排放。只有当由技术与管理决定的碳生产率与经济增长的速率形成对冲，才能实现碳排放的


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零增长，这需要调控经济增长的规模与速度。

未来的上海

未来的上海是什么样子？

复旦大学经济学院教授吴力波认为新加坡模式值得借鉴。首先，新加坡是国际性的贸易中心、航运中

心和金融中心，这和上海的城市定位高度一致。此外，新加坡和上海，同样是港口城市，有着巨大的港口

吞吐量。它们都是必须保留一定工业比例的城市，也是东方文化主导的城市，二者在一些理念上有共通性。

据中金公司研究部报告，直至 2014 年，新加坡第二产业占 GDP 比重仍达 26.2%（上海为 35%）。根

据国际能源署（International Energy Agency）统计，2015 年新加坡单位 GDP 碳排放在全球 142 个国家中排

名 123 位，而中国位列第 10。

低碳发展的目标就是经济发展和碳排放脱钩。如果以 GDP 来衡量，“上海可能要到人均 GDP3 万、4

万美元的时候，才可能说和碳排放脱钩。”吴力波说，上海现在人均 2 万美元的 GDP 量，还差得远，而新

加坡已经达到了 5.5 万美元。

由于工业部门具有碳锁定效应，因此建筑、交通减排以及科技提升需要同时跟进，这在新加坡低碳发

展中也是重点。按照新加坡发展规划，到 2020 年，新加坡工业碳排放仍将占总排放的 60.3%。

上海也已经在采取多项策略，在建筑等领域进行综合减排。同济大学副校长吴志强的团队致力于建筑

群落的减排研究。这种协同减排方式比单栋建筑效率高出许多。“我们并不是不做单栋的绿色建筑。绿色

建筑群落对于中国像北京、上海这样的大城市来说是更适合的选择。事实上，绿色建筑群落能够为完善区

域内部以及之间的能源分配和供给提供更大的空间。比如单栋建筑的电力峰值调控可能很难。但是一个社

区或群落的电力消耗却可以平衡分配，满足真实需求。”

吴志强认为，绿色群落的概念其实是把城市作为一个生命体来综合考量，并使之不断生长和完善，“一

个真实的很好的生命体不能离开它所处的环境，它需要地区的生态条件，地区的劳动力，需要地区更好地

保护传统和更恰当的资源供给。”

World business leaders demand an end to fossil fuels

subsidies

Billion-dollar payouts for gas and coal fail to make economic sense, writes Eliot Whittington

The Paris Agreement on climate change creates a clear direction of travel for policy-makers, businesses and

investors to stimulate a profound rewiring of the global economy, where resilience, sustainability and transparency

are the watchwords.

As all countries are expected to turn their pledges into action, the first steps to transition to a low – or zero –

carbon economy are being taken by a growing number of regions adopting carbon pricing systems, aimed at

measuring, regulating and reducing carbon.

Yet, governments globally are blunting the effectiveness of their moves to price carbon by spending over US$500

billion each year on subsidies for oil, gas and coal, outstripping subsidies for clean renewable energy by a factor

of four. Pricing carbon whilst subsidising the fuels that drive emissions is inefficient and counterproductive.

The communiqué

At COP21 in Paris, business leaders from The Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group and We Mean Business

joined Heads of State from countries to deliver the Friends of Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform Communiqué calling

for the rapid elimination of inefficient, perverse fossil fuel subsidies.

The communiqué, endorsed by over 40 countries, hundreds of businesses and respected international organisations


44

such as the World Bank, OECD and International Energy Agency (IEA), was presented to former UN Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) executive secretary, Christiana Figueres, and inspired pledges to

reform from the US, Morocco, UK, among others.

Economic health

Eliminating fossil fuel subsidies frees up public resources for cutting taxes, investing in education, healthcare and

infrastructure. It also allows sustainable energy sources to compete on a more level playing field. The Global

Subsidies Initiative (GSI) modeled the impact of subsidy removal in 20 countries and found that eliminating

subsidies can, on average, cut national emissions by 11% between now and 2020.

By redirecting 30% of subsidy savings towards renewable energy and energy efficiency, national emissions could

be reduced by as much as 18% on average by 2020, by when the Paris Agreement is likely to have come into

effect.

According to the IMF, eliminating the subsidies that provide false consumer price advantages for oil, gas and coal

offers financial gains in advanced economies equal to half of corporate income tax or one quarter of public health

spending. In emerging economies, the revenue is worth double the corporate income tax revenues or public health

spending.

More broadly, phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is a major opportunity to reallocate public expenditure in

developing countries and for developed countries to free up resources to help fund their development

commitments.

This is particularly important to support the delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. This will

require innovative financing, where public investment catalyses far greater private funding flows to meet the

needs of Asian countries, including China, to eradicate poverty and create resilient communities for the future.

Developed and developing countries will also need to meet escalating costs due to increasingly severe

climate-related weather disruptions, which disproportionately impact poor communities.

Directing public funds away from fossil fuels and towards sustainable development can be a significant win-win.

Business sense

Many argue that by artificially depressing the cost of fossil fuels, subsidies distort the comparative cost of

renewable energy and energy efficiency, limiting their growth. Already energy efficiency is recognised as the most

efficient way to cut emissions and incur fiscal savings. Low-carbon sectors demonstrate healthy growth of 4% p.a.

or better globally, offering much needed job creation. These gains can be expected to continue.

Perverse subsidies that contradict this agenda can cause confusion and restrict private sector engagement, acting

as an impediment to the acceleration of climate friendly, resilient innovations and investments.

Investment opportunities

Clarity that public resources are shifting away from fossil fuels offers a powerful signal to the private sector that

the time is right to invest in the growing alternatives such as renewables, electric vehicles and low-carbon

infrastructure, which are the economic success stories of the future.

For example, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), backed by China, other Asian countries and a number of G20

developed nations, catalyses investments and leverages public funds to stimulate larger private funding flows. It

has recently launched a US$200 million privately funded initiative to enable small and medium sized cities in

China to turn their solid waste into a sustainable source of renewable energy.

The potential to unleash even greater investment exists, but is often impeded by the contradictory investment of

public funds in bolstering fossil fuel production and consumption.

China’s G20 Presidency


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China is set to introduce a national carbon pricing system in 2017, yet remains the largest global spender on fossil

fuel subsidies in dollar terms, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) July 2015 report.

Speaking in Hong Kong on 23 February, Xie Zhenhua, China’s special representative for climate change, said that

a 50% cut in carbon intensity by 2020 puts China on track to achieve its bold 2030 equivalent target of a 60-65%

cut and also reduces the economy’s dependence on fossil fuels.

Removing and redirecting fossil fuel subsidies could be a key contributor to delivering these goals. China’s

leadership in this respect will not only influence private sector investment within China, but as recent history has

shown, it will be highly influential on private and public sector spending intentions globally.

The G20 was one of the first international bodies to put fossil fuel subsidy reform on the global agenda. As early

as 2009 the largest global economies, as members of the G20, committed to “phase out and rationalise over the

medium term inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”. Despite regular reaffirmation of this pledge, including last year in

Turkey, action has been slow.

In the lead up to the G20 Heads of State meeting in China in May 2016, and with energy prices at an all-time low,

now could be the time for the G20 to act to phase out these inefficient subsidies with a gentler impact on

consumers and national economies. A clear action plan from G20 governments would likely earn the trust and

support of global business, as well as citizens.

Xi Jingping’s speech at the 10th G20 Summit in 2015 in Turkey set the tone and theme for China’s G20

Presidency: "Innovative Growth that Benefits All". To deliver action behind the sentiment, eliminating fossil fuel

subsidies and introducing carbon pricing could be a major and influential step.

世界各国经济领导人呼吁取消化石燃料补贴

艾略特•惠廷顿表示，高达数十亿美元的天然气和燃煤补贴不利于经济可持续发展。

去年签订的《巴黎协定》在内的一系列全球气候协议为决策者、企业和投资者大规模重建一个透明、

强韧、可持续的全球经济指明了方向。

鉴于所有缔约国家都需要采取行动落实他们的减排承诺，越来越多的地区通过碳排放定价机制对碳排

放进行测量、调控，从而实现减排，迈出了走向“低碳”或者“零碳”经济转型的第一步。

然而，各国政府每年对石油、天然气和燃煤的补贴逾 5000 亿美元，是清洁可再生能源补贴的 4 倍，

这使他们的减排效率大打折扣。燃料补贴会鼓励碳排放，因此碳定价政策缺乏有力保障甚至会适得其反。

化石燃料补贴改革公告

在巴黎第 21 届联合国气候变化大会（COP21）召开期间，来自威尔士亲王气候变化问题企业领导人

小组（ Prince of Wales’s Corporate Leaders Group）和 We Mean Business 组织的商界领袖和各国首脑一道

发表了《化石燃料补贴改革之友公告》，呼吁各国尽快取消与经济发展态势相悖的低效化石燃料补贴政策。

经 40 多个国家，数百家企业和世界银行、经济合作与发展组织（OECD）、国际能源署（IEA）等重要

国际组织签署同意后，该公报被提交给前任《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）执行秘书长克里斯

蒂安娜•菲格雷斯(Christina Figueres)。受该公报影响，美国、摩洛哥、英国等国都做出了改革承诺。

经济健康发展

取消化石燃料补贴能为减税、教育、医疗、基础设施等领域释放出公共资源，也会为发展可持续能源

提供更为公平的竞争环境。全球补贴倡议（GSI）通过模拟 20 个国家取消补贴后的影响，发现取消化石燃

料补贴能在 2020 前使各国平均减少 11%的碳排放。

如果将 30%的补贴用于发展可持续能源和提高能源效率，在 2020 年《巴黎协定》生效之前，各国碳

排放量平均最高可减少 18%。

国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据表明，补贴政策错误地给予了石油、天然气、燃煤消费价格优势。

取消该政策为发达经济体带来的财政效益相当于其公司所得税的一半或公共卫生支出的四分之一，为新兴


46

经济体带来的效益相当于其公司所得税收入或公共卫生支出的两倍。

更为宏观的说，取消化石燃料补贴是一次重大的契机，发展中国家可藉此重新分配公共支出，发达国

家可由此释放资源以兑现发展承诺。这对于确保在 2030 年前实现可持续发展目标具有重要意义。然而取

消化石燃料补贴需要创新的融资方式助力。公共投资应当催生更多的社会资金帮助中国在内的亚洲国家消

除贫困，营造更具韧性的社区。而由于气候相关的天气灾害日益严重，且贫困地区犹受其困，发达国家和

发展中国家也需要在这一方面分配更多的资金。

公共资金由化石燃料行业转向可持续发展方面将会取得“双赢”。

商业影响

许多人士认为，补贴政策压低了化石燃料成本，从而扭曲了可再生能源的比较成本以及能源效率，限

制了可再生能源的增长。然而目前，提高能效被认为是减排和节省财政支出最有效的措施。而且全球低碳

行业每年保持 4%或者更高的增长率，提供了大量就业机会。据估计，这样的增长在今后仍将持续。

而补贴政策与上述趋势背道而驰，不仅会引起困惑，还会打击私人领域的投资热情，阻碍气候友好型

经济以及弹性创新和投资的加速发展。

投资机会

明确引导公共资源从化石燃料行业转移对民营经济来说是一个强烈的信号，意味着现在正是投资可再

生能源、电动汽车、低碳基础设施建设等替代性行业的大好时机。这些行业将是今后经济发展的主力军。

例如，在中国等亚洲国家和 G20 集团中的几个发达成员国的支持下，亚洲发展银行（ADB）通过公共

资金投入，极大地调动了民营资本的流入。最近，在 2 亿美元民营资本的支持下，ADB 发起了一项计划，

帮助中国中小型城市将固态废物转化成可持续的可再生资源。

更多的投资机遇尚待争取，但是投入化石燃料生产和消费领域的公共投资却发出了与此相悖的信号，

阻碍了上述投资机遇的拓展。

中国 G20 峰会

国际货币基金组织 2015 年 7 月的报告称，虽然中国将于 2017 年启动全国碳排放权交易市场，但是按

美元换算，其仍是世界上最大的化石燃料补贴国。

中国气候变化事务特别代表解振华 2 月 23 日现身香港时表示，到 2020 年中国若能将碳强度降低 50%，

那么到 2030 年，中国的碳强度将减少 60-65%，同时也使中国减少了对于化石燃料的经济依赖。

取消化石燃料补贴并重新分配这笔资金是实现上述目标的关键。从最近几年的情况来看，中国在这一

方面发挥的领导作用不仅会影响其国内的民营投资，还会极大地影响全球公共和民营领域的投资意向。

G20 是率先将化石燃料补贴改革列入全球议题的国际机构之一。早在 2009 年，作为 G20 成员国，这

些全球最大的经济体就已经决心“将于近期逐步淘汰并重新合理利用化石燃料补贴”。然而，尽管会定期

（去年是在土耳其）重申该承诺，他们却迟迟未采取行动。

现在实为 G20 采取行动的良机。一来，由于目前能源价格创历史新低，逐步取消补贴对消费者和国民

经济的影响较小；二来，二十国集团领导人会议即将于 2016 年 5 月在中国召开，借此契机，由 G20 各国

政府发表明确的行动计划将赢得全球企业和人民的信任与支持。

2015 年，在土耳其召开的二十国集团领导人第十次峰会上，习近平主席发表了题为《创新增长路径共

享发展成果》的重要讲话，确定了今年中国峰会的基调和主题。为确保此次演讲精神的落实，取消化石燃

料补贴和启动碳定价是其中具有重大意义的一步。

China and US should lead fossil fuel subsidies reform at

G20

This year's summit is an opportunity for the superpowers to jointly push the world towards a climate safe future,


47

write Peter Ogden and Ben Bovarnick

In September of this year, Barack Obama will travel to China for the last time as president to participate in the

G20 meeting in Hangzhou. Climate change cooperation has been a signature feature of US-China relations during

the Obama administration, and there is every reason to expect that both countries will want to mark this visit with

a final demonstration of their ability to lead together on the issue. Fortunately, this year’s G20 presents a unique

opportunity to do just that by taking on a critical piece of the climate challenge that still needs to be addressed: the

elimination of fossil fuel subsidies.

This is not new territory for the G20. At their meeting in 2009 in Pittsburgh, the leaders of the world’s largest

developed and developing economies all pledged to “rationalise and phase out over the medium term inefficient

fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption”.

It was and remains a smart objective for G20 countries, which account for almost 50% of global fossil fuel

subsidies. Such subsidies are a drain on national budgets, undermine domestic and global efforts to combat

climate change by incentivising the production and consumption of polluting fuels at the expense of taxpayers,

and make it harder for clean energy alternatives to compete in the marketplace.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that phasing out subsidies would reduce our global greenhouse

gas emissions by a full 10% by 2050. And although fossil subsidies are often justified as a means of helping the

poor, they are typically quite regressive. The richest 20% of the population in developing countries receives on

average six times the value of fuel subsidies as the poorest 20%.

In the wake of the historic Paris Climate Agreement that was achieved last December, the economic,

environmental, and diplomatic logic for ridding the world of these costly, damaging, and all too regressive

subsidies has never been stronger.

Barriers to progress

But in spite of this commitment, subsidies have proceeded to grow, not fall, in the months that immediately

followed. Little reform was carried out and oil prices steadily climbed. Looking further back to the year that the

G20 made its pledge countries around the world spent US$312 billion on fossil fuel consumption subsidies; by

2012 three years later, that figure had risen to US$548 billion.

Although high oil prices have required larger public expenditures to maintain subsidies – which only intensified

the economic rationale for scrapping them – efforts to take the necessary measures encountered serious resistance.

In 2012, for instance, attempts to reform fossil fuel subsidies in Jordan and Nigeria sparked public protests,

forcing both governments to back down.

But a profound shift occurred in the summer of 2014: oil prices started to plummet., and many countries around

the world, including G20 countries Indonesia and India, seized on this moment to undertake reforms. Indonesia

reduced subsidies for gasoline by 31% in November 2014, and eliminated them completely three months later in

January 2015. Due to the low price of oil that month, elimination of the subsidy program actually resulted in a

12% price decline at the pump – from IDR 8,500 (US$0.68) per litre to IDR 7,600 (US$0.61) per litre.

While it was oil importing countries who acted first, in 2015, oil exporters began to take action. Oil exporting

countries have historically been willing to keep fuel prices artificially low at home, sacrificing the greater revenue

they could fetch for their product on the international market and encouraging wasteful consumption by citizens

and local industries. In 2015, oil consumption in the Middle East was almost four times greater per capita than the

global average.

Price reforms

But, ultimately, the toll of low oil prices on national budgets in the region spurred oil exporters in the Persian Gulf

to take action. Even Saudi Arabia, the world’s second largest fossil subsidiser, has taken action. Although Saudi

Arabia, a G20 country, prefers not to describe its policies as fossil subsidy reduction per se, one can see clearly

that the gap between domestic gas prices and international gasoline benchmarks has shrunk considerably since the


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downturn in the oil market. (The US Energy Information Administration attributes about two-thirds of changes in

the price of gasoline to fluctuations in the price of crude oil, and in unsubsidised markets around the world the

recent fall in oil prices has produced corresponding declines in gasoline costs.)

In 2014, Saudi Arabia subsidised gasoline at 17% of the Singapore spot price – the price of wholesale gasoline at

the primary trading hub in Asia. By 2015, the constant price of Saudi gasoline stood at 27% of the price of similar

gasoline in global markets. Now, the recent subsidy reforms that increased gasoline prices by 0.3 riyals per litre

(US$0.30 per gallon), coupled with further declining global gasoline prices, have reduced the cost disparity such

that gasoline in Saudi Arabia is only half the price of the Singapore spot market.

And Saudi Arabia is not alone among oil exporters in the region: Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have also

taken unprecedented steps to bring domestic prices in line with international ones.

The G20

At the G20 in Hangzhou, countries should aim to lock in this progress and bolster their original commitment to

eliminate subsidies, through a two-pronged approach:

First, countries should quantify and report on their domestic progress toward subsidy reform since the original

commitment in 2009. This should include current and expected savings they have achieved through reform and,

when possible, identification of how these savings have and will benefit the country through reinvestment or debt

reduction.

Second, countries should commit to maintain the policies that they have put in place if and when oil prices rise,

and to advance additional policies for further reductions. While an absolute cap on subsidies at 2016 levels may be

challenging or problematic for countries to agree to, because the impact of unpredictable fluctuating oil prices on

absolute subsidy levels is outside of any one country’s control, countries do have the ability to control domestic

policies and to pledge that they will not allow progress to be rolled back.

This commitment to maintain domestic reforms is a necessary step to ensuring politicians are not tempted to

reinstate fossil fuel subsidies if and when prices rise. For instance, less than a year after officially abolishing

gasoline subsidies, Indonesian Prime Minister Joko Widodo asked the state owned fuel company Pertamina to

continue selling gasoline at below market rates, resulting in losses of over US$1 billion in the first three quarters


49

of 2015. Indonesia has been a leader in fossil subsidy reform, and it is important that it not reverse course.

The US, meanwhile, has an all too rare opportunity to showcase domestic leadership that could help to build

support for these new commitments by the G20. Although the United States is still saddled with 11 oil and gas

production tax subsidies that cost about US$4.7 billion annually (which in spite of President Obama’s urging,

Congress has refused to scrap), the US took an important step forward this year, by announcing that the

Department of Interior would begin the process of reforming the federal coal-leasing programme.

Two substantial subsidies that can and should be removed through this process are: the undervaluation and sale of

coal at below market prices by the Bureau of Land Management, or BLM; and a loophole that allows companies

to deduct unlimited transportation and washing costs from the total value of coal that they must pay federal

royalties on. Undervaluation of coal leases has provided a subsidy estimated at over US$28.9 billion since 1982,

and unlimited royalty rate deductions offer an additional subsidy of US$37 million annually.

With the US well positioned to push for progress, and China, as this year’s host of the G20, well situated to put

the fossil fuel subsidy issue squarely on the meeting agenda, there is the potential for us to once again see a

US-China partnership emerge to push the world toward a cleaner and climate safe future.

中美将在 G20 峰会推进化石燃料补贴改革

今年的 G20 峰会将是中美两个大国联合推进全球气候安全进程的机会，彼得•奥格登和本•博瓦尼克表

示。

今年 9 月，美国总统奥巴马将参加在杭州举行的 G20 峰会，这将是他最后一次以总统的身份前往中国。

气候变化合作已经成为奥巴马政府领导下美中关系的标志性特征，而我们完全有理由相信，中美两国都希

望奥巴马此次访华能够最终奠定两国在全球抗击气候变化工作中的领导地位。幸运的是，今年的 G20 峰会

关注到了抗击气候变化工作中极为关键、也是亟须解决的一大问题：取消化石燃料补贴。这为中美两国达

成自己的目标提供了独特的机会。

这并非是 G20 峰会首次涉及这一问题。早在 2009 年的匹兹堡峰会上，全球最大的发达和发展中经济

体领导人就一齐承诺，提出“将化石燃料补贴合理化，并在中期时间内逐步取消鼓励浪费型消费的化石燃

料补贴。”

G20 国家化石燃料补贴额约占全球总额的 50%。对他们而言，这一承诺无论在当时还是现在都非常明

智。此类补贴不断耗费国家预算，用纳税人的钱鼓励高污染燃料的生产和消费，损害了各国国内和国际社

会抗击气候变化的努力，并降低了清洁替代能源的市场竞争力。国际能源署预计，截至 2050 年，取消化

石燃料补贴将会减少全球整整 10%的温室气体排放量。化石燃料补贴虽然常常挂着扶贫的美名，但大多是

一种倒退的表现。在发展中国家，最富裕的 20%的人口接受的化石燃料补贴平均约为最贫困的 20%的人口

的 6 倍。

去年 12 月《巴黎协定》达成之后，无论是经济层面，还是环境、外交层面，都具备了充分的理由取

消这种代价高昂、破坏性高且极为倒退的补贴。

尽管已经做出承诺，各国的化石燃料补贴在接下来的一年里却是不减反增。改革毫无踪迹，油价稳步

上涨。2009 年，全球化石燃料消费补贴总额为 3120 亿美元；而到 2012 年，这一数字更是上升至 5480 亿

美元。

油价上涨意味着需要拿出更多的公共支出来维持补贴，而这只会强化取消补贴的经济原因，但采取必

要措施的努力却遭遇了重重阻碍。例如 2012 年，约旦和尼日利亚试图改革化石燃料补贴，但由于民众抗

议，两国政府不得不放弃改革。

2014 年夏天，情况出现了转机：石油价格开始暴跌，全球许多国家（包括 G20 成员国印度尼西亚和

印度）借此机会开展改革。2014 年 11 月，印度尼西亚削减了 31%的汽油补贴，并于三个月后的 2015 年 1

月彻底取消该项补贴。鉴于当时油价较低，取消此项补贴后汽油零售价实际下降了 12%，从原来的每升 8500


50

印尼盾（0.68 美元）跌至每升 7600 印尼盾（0.61 美元）。

有了石油进口国打头阵之后，2015 年，石油出口国家也开始了行动。一直以来，这些国家大多心甘情

愿地人为压低国内油价，这种做法不仅牺牲了他们出口带来的大量收入，还鼓励了国民和当地产业的浪费

性消耗。2015 年，中东地区的人均石油消耗量几乎高出全球平均水平的 4 倍。

但最终，低油价对波斯湾地区各国国家预算带来的影响使得该地区的石油出口国们不得不采取行动，

即便是化石燃料补贴总额位列全球第二的沙特阿拉伯也不例外。虽然作为 G20 成员国的沙特阿拉伯认为自

身政策本质上并不是在削减化石燃料补贴，但可以清楚的看到，石油市场陷入低迷以来，沙特阿拉伯国内

油价和国际汽油基准价格之间的差距已经明显缩小。（美国能源信息管理局认为，汽油价格变动约有三分

之二的原因在于原油价格的波动。而近来，全球无化石燃料补贴国家市场油价的下跌相应地也导致了汽油

成本下降。）

2014 年，沙特阿拉伯对汽油的补贴额度为新加坡现货价格（亚洲主要交易中心的汽油批发价格）的

17%。截至 2015 年，沙特阿拉伯国内汽油的固定价格为同类型汽油在全球市场中价格的 27%。目前推行

的补贴改革将每升汽油的价格提升了 0.3 里亚尔（每加仑提升 0.3 美元），随着全球汽油价格进一步下跌，

沙特国内汽油价格仅为新加坡现货市场价格的一半，与国际价格的差距已经大幅缩小。

沙特阿拉伯并非是该地区唯一采取行动的石油出口国：卡塔尔和阿拉伯联合酋长国也史无前例地采取

了相关措施，缩小国内价格与国际价格的差距。

今年 9 月，G20 峰会将在杭州举行。与会各国应该努力保持这一进展，并且采取双管齐下的方法，履

行他们当初取消补贴的承诺。

首先，各国应量化并汇报 2009 年承诺以来，国内在补贴改革方面取得的进展，其中应包括通过改革

节省的实际金额和计划节省金额，条件允许的情况下还应给出节省下来的资金通过再投资和债务减免等措

施，为国家带来了、或者即将带来何种利益。

其次，各国应承诺无论国际油价是否回升都不会撤销已出台的政策，并且将会推出补充政策，进一步

削减补贴。鉴于油价波动无法预知，其对化石燃料绝对补贴水平的影响也难以控制，要想全球一致同意确

定 2016 年补贴额的绝对上限可能具有挑战性，但各国的确有能力控制国内政策，并承诺不会撤销已经做


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出的努力。

坚持国内改革是确保油价回升之后，政客不会试图恢复化石燃料补贴的关键。例如，印度尼西亚官方

废除汽油补贴之后不到一年，该国总理佐科·维多多就下令国有的印尼国家石油公司继续以低于市场水平

的价格销售汽油，导致该公司 2015 年前三季度燃料分销业务损失超过 10 亿美元。印度尼西亚一直以来都

是化石燃料补贴改革的领军者，保持其改革的势头十分重要。

与此同时，美国国内的改革措施能够为 G20 各国达成这些承诺提供支持，而这也是美国展示其领导风

范的不可多得的机会。目前，美国仍存在 11 项石油和天然气生产税补贴，每年在这方面的开支约为 47 亿

美元。总统奥巴马曾敦促取消这些补贴，但遭到国会拒绝。尽管如此，美国政府今年还是采取了一项重要

举措，宣布内务部将着手改革联邦煤炭租赁计划。目前美国存在土地管理局（BLM）对煤炭价值评估过低，

并且以低于市场水平的价格销售煤炭的情况；此外，一些公司还利用体制漏洞，将运输和洗涤成本从煤炭

总价值中扣除，从而降低需支付的联邦特许使用费。美国政府的改革措施预计将取缔这两项实质上的化石

燃料补贴行为。1982 年来，对煤炭租赁价值的低估约造成了超过 289 亿美元的补贴，而每年大小企业从特

许使用费中扣除的运输和洗涤成本总价值为 3700 万美元。

美国已经做好准备，作为今年 G20 峰会主办国的中国已经蓄势待发，化石燃料补贴的问题也被明确提

上了会议议程，我们将再次见证中美两国通力合作，推动全球朝着能源更加清洁、气候更加安全的未来前

行。

Coal（煤炭）

China Bans Some New Coal Power Plants, Spelling More

Bad News For A Troubled Industry

The long-suffering global coal industry just got another dose of bad news. China’s government this week said it is

banning construction of new coal-fired power plants in areas with surplus power supplies.

Declining domestic demand for Chinese coal could lead to higher exports of coal from the country, further

expanding the glut of global coal supplies and weighing on already depressed prices. The downturn has battered

major U.S. coal-mining companies such as Peabody Energy Corp. and Arch Coal Inc., which both recently filed

for bankruptcy protection.

“If China tightens coal-fired thermal power plants then this will significantly lead to a decline in coal-demand

growth,” Miao Tian, an energy analyst at North Square Blue Oak investment bank in Beijing, told The Wall Street

Journal.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner, issued the partial

coal plant ban Monday. The central government has previously said it aimed to curb excess power capacity — part

of a broader effort to address oversupply in the Chinese economy, which has widened as China’s industrial

demand has weakened. But the NRDC communiqué is the clearest signal yet that Beijing won’t accept new coal

capacity in areas with an overabundance of supplies, the Journal noted.

The commission also said that in regions that face a shortage of electricity supplies, the government will prioritize

renewable energy projects such as solar and wind farms, and develop energy transmission networks across

provincial borders. Chinese officials last week vowed to lead the world on green energy development during a

signing ceremony for the Paris climate change agreement in New York.


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In China, the world’s biggest coal consumer and producer, coal-fired power plants still account for about

two-thirds of the country's primary energy consumption. But the shift away from new plants offers further proof

that Asia’s largest economy is no longer the boon that U.S. and global coal companies once sought.

As China’s economy has ramped up in recent years, mining companies have invested heavily to acquire mines and

build new operations to supply power plants and steel mills in China. Peabody, Arch and their competitors had bet

that China’s growing appetite for coal could offset the sluggish U.S. market, where tougher pollution limits,

concerns about climate change and more-efficient, cleaner energy supplies have dampened demand for

high-carbon coal.

But the influx of coal supplies served only to weigh down prices, making it harder for miners to get the cash to

cover their multibillion-dollar debt obligations. Peabody Energy filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection two

weeks ago as it struggled to service debt worth $10.1 billion, marking a critical new low for the U.S. coal industry.

In China, coal demand is on track to grow about 2 percent annually over the next five years and reach about 4.3

billion metric tons by 2020, according to China National Coal Association data cited by the Journal. By contrast,

annual coal demand grew about 9 percent on average from 2000 to 2010. During that decade, China began to

consume nearly as much coal as the rest of the world combined, U.S. energy data show.

中国禁止新建某些煤电厂

长期受苦的煤炭工业只是得到了另一则坏消息。这周中国政府说中国正在有剩余电力供应的地方禁停

新的燃煤发电站的建设。

国内对煤炭降低的需求会使得煤炭有较高的出口量，进一步扩大了煤炭供过于求的局面，加重了已经

压低了的煤炭价格。煤炭的衰退已经重创了美国主要的煤矿业的公司，如博地能源公司（Peabody Energy

Corp.）和阿奇煤炭公司（Arch Coal Inc.），它们最近都申请了破产保护。

苗田是一名北广场蓝色橡树投资银行的能源分析师，她告诉华尔街日报说：“如果中国缩进燃煤热电

站的建设，这将极大地导致煤炭需求的下滑。”

中国国家发展和改革委员会（China’s National Development and Reform Commission）是国家顶级的

经济规划师，周一发布了禁停部分煤电厂。中央政府之前说过，它致力于控制过剩的电力能源-中国经济中

努力解决过剩问题的一部分，随着中国工业需求变弱，这一点变宽了。但是杂志注意到，国家科学研究开

发公司（NRDC）公告是最明显的信号，北京不会在供应过多的地区接受新的煤炭产能。

发改委还说，在面临电力供应短缺的地区，政府将优先发展再生能源项目，如太阳能和风力发电厂，

跨省发展能量传递网络。上周在纽约的巴黎气候变化签约仪式上签约，中国官员发誓带领全世界发展绿色

能源。

中国这个世界上最大的煤炭消费和生产国，燃煤发电厂仍然占据着大约国内主要能源消费的三分之

二。但是从全新的厂房搬走进一步证明了亚洲最大的经济不再是美国和全齐煤炭公司曾经寻找的福音。

随着近些年中国经济的增长，矿业公司已经投入巨资来获取矿山和建立新的业务操作，满足发电厂和

轧钢厂。皮博迪、阿奇以及他们的竞争者曾经打赌中国的增长对煤炭带来的需求能够抵消美国市场的低迷，

在美国有更加严格的污染限制，考虑到气候变化，更加有效的、清洁的能源供应已经抑制了高碳含量的煤。

但还煤炭的流入只是压低了价格，使得矿工们更加艰难地得到钱来偿还他们数十亿美元的债券。皮博

迪能源两周前申请（美）联邦破产法第 11 章的破产保护，因为它在价值 101 亿美元的债务中艰难求生，

标志着美国煤炭行业一个重要的新低。

根据中国国家煤炭协会被杂志引用的数据，在中国，煤炭行业已走上正轨，在过去五年中，每年基本

都保持 2%的增长，2020 年能达到差不多 43 亿公吨。相比之下，从 2000 年到 2010 年，每年的煤炭需求增

长约为 9%。美国能源数据显示，在那个十年中，中国开始消耗几乎和世界上其他国家消耗之和的煤炭数

量。


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Traders fear liquidity squeeze in South African coal

market

Strong screen prices of spot thermal coal threaten to reduce liquidity in the South African Richards Bay market,

with many players questioning into which markets 6,000 NAR coal -- purchased at prices above $50/mt FOB --

was workable.

Since rallying from below $50/mt in early January to a high of $57.80/mt in mid-March, Richards Bay 6,000

kcal/kg NAR FOB prices have consistently traded at a premium to those of Europe-delivered CIF ARA, and have

often pushed above delivered prices for 6,000 NAR CFR West India, two key consumer markets of the coal.

While this has opened arbitrage opportunities for alternative originations in both markets, the effect is particularly

stark in India, where end users have been inundated with more attractive offers from alternative destinations

including Colombia, Russia, Poland, Australia and even Canada in recent weeks.

"Now I've seen everything," one Singapore-based trader said. "The Indian market is completely messed up

because of these higher South African prices."

The spike reached a peak on March 14, when a 75,000 mt April-loading parcel traded on the electronic trading

platform globalCOAL at $58.20/mt FOB, approximately a $4.30/mt premium to equivalent swaps prices at the

time.

Even higher paying markets such as Turkey have now turned away from South African coal, as more competitive

offers from producers in Colombia, Russia and Poland have flooded into the country, where prices were assessed

at $50/mt Friday March 25

"You used to be able to make South African coal into Turkey work," a Switzerland-based trader mused, "but now

a Russian Panamax from the Baltic is cheaper than Richards Bay."

Freight Routes Freight

($)

Calculated price

($) Assessed delivered price ($)

Richards Bay-India West 6.25 61.05 52.05

Richards Bay-Rotterdam 5.00 59.80 45.00

Richards Bay-Med 5.25 60.05 50.00

Defying gravity

Given that there is no clear arbitrage market for the material, buyers are right to question how onscreen FOB

South Africa prices can continue to defy gravity.

When canvassed, sellers of Richards Bay material have often cited tight availability of higher specification coal as

the fundamental reason behind the surge in values.

Demand for grades 5,500 and 5,700 has eclipsed that of 6,000 NAR, according to several sources, who said sellers

are less keen to process coal to such high specifications as a result, particularly given the fall in values for 6,000

NAR.

"The yield on 5,500 and 5,700 is higher currently, so there's less incentive to produce 6,000 NAR," one

Switzerland-based trader outlined. "It makes more sense for producers not to wash the coal at these prices; which

makes it [the 6,000 NAR] scarce."


54

A European-trader went on to add: "Sellers aren't producing it, so they're buying back all the available quantities

they can to meet their obligations. One [large producer-trader] has been relentless in its bidding in the last six

months or so, which has pushed prices higher."

With deals for 5,500 and 5,700 NAR coal indexed on a 6,000 NAR basis with an applied discount, this has

effectively supported value right across the chain, even as demand drops.

There was, however, a growing chorus of traders who said that even despite the cut in output, the market for 6,000

NAR is anything but tight.

"There is only one area where we indeed feel some tightness: on the screen," a European utility trader said. "One

of our suppliers -- from which we had purchased a February-delivery 5,750 min NAR cargo -- ended up delivering

6,000 NAR instead," he confirmed.

"More recently, with our March cargoes, we were having problems to proceed to loading. The buyer didn't have

the shipping instructions until two hours before the end of the laycan -- I suppose they didn't know where they

were going to take the cargo -- and in a second cargo, the same buyer requested us to put the cargo onto their

stockpile instead of delivering FOB."

Growing stockpiles

Several sources expressed similar sentiments, saying that in addition to curbing output of higher specification coal,

sellers were placing material of all grades into stockpiles as there was no demand at current prices.

Given the fundamentally bearish outlook for the market -- as evidenced by the steep backwardation in the futures

market (the spread between prompt-month and year-ahead contracts), which at its height was $11.30/mt January

25 -- many questioned the motives behind such a move.

A London-based trader said that of the 3 million mt of South African coal that had flowed to India during January,

much had not yet found homes with end users.

"If it's sitting in stockpiles, the question is, who's paying for it?" the source asked.

This was echoed by a Switzerland-based trader, who said placing coal into stocks can "effectively make it

disappear."

"I've seen cargoes moving from Russia's Murmansk port to the Far East - that defies all logic and cost, but the

producer does have storage in both locations."

Export data reveals that the bulk of vessels from South Africa have been destined for India and Pakistan, while

more traditional spot buyers such as the UAE, Europe and Turkey have been taking less.

"Where is the Richards Bay 6,000 NAR going? Into term contracts really," a trader said. "Buyers in Pakistan,

Malaysia, Sri Lanka... they aren't paying these prices you see on screen though."

Collapse in liquidity

This was echoed by a Switzerland-based trader who reported that buyers in Pakistan were receiving quotes from

sellers at $57-58/mt CFR for May delivery.

"The freight from South Africa to Pakistan alone is $7/mt, so that gives you a [calculated netback] FOB price of

$50/mt, which is definitely not what is showing on screen today and not where I can buy," he added.

The source said that the higher onscreen prices were making it increasingly difficult for traders to compete in a

market where flows were controlled by a few producers and demand was shrinking.

Prices have lost more than 60% of their value in the last two years and the fight for what thin margin remains has

intensified as a result.

"We [traders] are quiet because we don't know what to do. It's too risky to go long and it's too risky to go short at


55

the moment," a Switzerland-based trader lamented. "There's no market left for us really... The sellers push out the

traders because they want all the margin they can get."

With three major producers -- Glencore, Anglo American and South32 -- controlling 70% of total Richards Bay

shipments and an increasing number of smaller traders seemingly unable to transact due to credit risk terms, a

growing number of participants were beginning to express skepticism around Richards Bay spot prices.

"I don't understand the incentive to create the disconnect because, eventually, the game won't lead to much; people

won't be willing to settle [against an index]," a European trader said.

"We could go back to the situation where producers are dealing directly with consumers, which is not good for

consumers either ? it will create an oligarchy," the source added.

More concerning is the notion that the trend could filter out beyond the Richards Bay market, which is currently

epitomizing the wider fundamental concern within the coal market; most originations are controlled by the same

key players.

With poor economics leading to some exiting the ring, this is a trend that could deepen.

"It's not just in South Africa; it's in Colombia and Russia. And It's not just one seller, it's a few," a second

European trader cautioned.

"The industry has to tackle this to bring transparency back," said another.

交易员担心南非煤炭市场流动性紧缩

现货动力煤的强劲的屏幕价格对降低南非理查兹湾市场流动性造成了威胁,许多参与者质疑,哪个市场

的 6000 NAR 煤是可行的，当购买价格高于 50 美元/吨 FOB。

从 1 月初低于 50 美元/吨反弹到 3 月中旬的高点 57.80 美元/吨,理查兹湾 6000 千卡/公斤 NAR 煤的离

岸价格一直高于运到欧洲 ARA 港的到岸价格,并且经常推高西印度购买时 6000 NAR 卖方支付运费的交货

价格病，两个重要的煤炭消费市场。

当这为这两个市场的替代组织提供了套利的机会,在印度的影响尤为明显,在印度最终的消费者被来自

替代目的地的更具吸引力的价格所包围，最近几周，这些目的地包括哥伦比亚、俄罗斯、波兰、澳大利亚

甚至加拿大。

“现在我看到的一切,”一位驻新加坡的交易商说，“印度市场被完全搞砸了,因为南非市场的高价格。”

在 3 月 14 日,价格达到了顶峰，在电子交易平台 globalCOAL 完成的一笔 75000 mt 的于 4 月装载的煤

炭订单价格达到了 58.20 美元/吨 FOB,比等价互换价格高了约 4.30 美元/吨。

更高的支付市场如土耳其已经不再购买南非煤炭,因为哥伦比亚,俄罗斯和波兰的生产者提供了更具有

竞争力的价格，3 月 25 日星期五，他们的价格评估为 50 美元/吨。

“你过去可以使南非煤炭进入土耳其的市场,”瑞士商人若有所思地说,“但现在，从波罗的海出发的

俄罗斯巴拿马运河大型船上的煤炭价格要比理查兹湾的便宜。”

价格飙升

因为没有材料的明确的套利市场,买家有权质疑南非公开的 FOB 价格是怎样可以继续上涨的？

审视时,理查兹湾材料的卖家经常援引更高规格的煤炭紧张可用性作为价值激增背后的根本原因。

对 5500 和 5700 规格煤炭的需求已经超过 6000 NAR 规格煤炭的需求,几个证据可以说明这一点，谁说

卖

家不太热衷于将煤炭进行处理以达到更高的规格,特别是考虑到 6000 NAR 价值的下降。

“目前 5500 和 5700 规格煤炭的收益更高,所以生产 6000 NAR 的动力减少,”一位瑞士的交易员说，“对

于生产者，在这样的价格下，不洗煤才更有道理,这使得 6000NAR 的煤稀缺。”


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欧洲的交易商继续补充道:“卖家不生产,所以为完成他们的份额，他们将所有能购买到的 6000NAR 买

回。一个[大的生产商和交易商]在过去六个月左右的时间里不间断地进行投标,这种行为推高了价格。

5500 和 5700 NAR 煤炭交易价格随 6000 NAR 的交易价格变动，但低于它。这种关系有效地支持了整

个价值链条,即使需求下降。

然而,越来越多的交易员表示,尽管削减产量,6000NAR 的市场也不应该如此紧张。

“只有一个地方我们确实感到有些紧张:在屏幕上,“欧洲公用事业交易员表示，“我们的一个供应商—

—我们从他那里购买了 5750 min NAR 于二月交付的货物,最终交付的货物却是 6000 NAR,”他确认。

“最近,我们 3 月的货物,我们在装载过程中遇到了问题：直到受载期限结束前两小时买方才给了装船

指示,我想他们不知道自己将要去哪里提货。同样的买家要求我们把货物放到他们的库存中而不是船上交

货。”

越来越多的库存

几个来源表达了类似的情绪,说除了抑制输出更高规格的煤炭,卖家将所有规格的材料都放入库存，因

为以

当前价格没有需求。

考虑到从根本上看空的市场前景——这种前景被期货市场陡峭的现货溢价证明在(月度合约和年度合

约之间的价差),1 月 25 日差价高达 11.30 美元/吨,许多质疑此举背后的动机。

伦敦的交易员说,在 1 月已流入印度的南非的 300 万吨煤炭中，大多数还没有找到最终消费者。

“如果坚持存放在仓库,问题是,谁付钱?”来源问道。

这得到瑞士商人的附和,他说增加煤炭库存可以有效地让它消失。

“我看过从俄罗斯摩尔曼斯克港口运往远东的货物——颠覆所有逻辑和成本,但生产者确实在这两个

地方都保有大量库存。”

出口数据显示,大部分船只从南非出发开往印度和巴基斯坦,更为传统的现货买家例如阿联酋、欧洲和

土耳其购买得更少了。

“理查兹湾 6000 NAR 在合同条款中将如何显示？”一位交易员表示，“巴基斯坦,马来西亚,斯里兰卡

的买家…他们不会按屏幕上的价格进行支付。”

流动性崩溃

这得到瑞士交易员的赞同，交易员称巴基斯坦买家收到卖家 57-58 美元/吨 CFR，5 月交付的报价。

“从南非到巴基斯坦的运费是 7 美元/吨,所以原本计算的离岸的净价是 50 美元/吨,这绝对不是今天显

示在屏幕上的价格,也不是在那里可以买到的,”他补充道。

来源说,屏幕上更高的价格使交易商越来越难去竞争在这样的市场上，这里流量被几个生产商控制，而

需求正在萎缩。

价格已经贬值超过 60%在过去的两年里,关于薄利应该保持在多少的讨论已经变得激烈了。

“我们(交易员)是安静的,因为我们不知道该做什么。这太冒险以至于不会太长,也不至于太短,”瑞士

商人叹惋不已。“市场没有留给我们什么…卖方把交易员推出去,因为他想要得到所有的利润。”

三个主要生产商——嘉能可、英美资源集团和 South32——控制理查兹湾出口总额的 70%和越来越多

的小商人似乎无法交易由于信用风险条款,越来越多的参与者开始对理查兹湾现货价格表示怀疑。

“我不明白创造分离的动机,因为最终,游戏不会导致很多,人们不会愿意解决(对指数),”一个欧洲交易

员表示。

“我们可以回到生产商与消费者直接打交道的时候,这是不利于消费者的要么它将创建一个寡头,”源

补充道。

更多有关的是这样的想法，即这一趋势可能过滤掉的不止理查兹湾市场,这种想法概况了煤炭市场中更

广泛的重要问题;大多数问题的开始都由相同的参与者控制的。

差的经济导致一些公司的退出,这是一个可能深化的趋势。


57

“不仅仅是在南非,在哥伦比亚和俄罗斯也有这样的情况。而且不只是一个卖家,是几个卖家,”第二个

欧洲交易员警告说。

“这个行业必须解决这个问题，以换取透明度的回归,”另一个说。

Japan fiscal 2016-17 thermal coal price settles lower at

$61.60/mt FOB Newcastle: Sources

Japan-based electricity generator Tohoku Electric Power and Australian thermal coal miner Glencore have arrived

at a price of $61.60/mt FOB Newcastle basis 6,322 kcal/kg GAR (6,000 kcal/kg NAR) for their April 2016-March

2017 Japan fiscal year contract, market sources said Monday.

Glencore and Tohoku finally agreed their price on Saturday after talks between the two parties overran their April

1 deadline, sources said.

Tohoku Electric was said to have been aiming for a price of less than $59/mt FOB Newcastle 6,322 kcal/kg GAR,

while Glencore had sought a price in the mid-to-upper $60s/mt, sources added.

The settled price represents a decline of 9.14% on last fiscal year's contract price of $67.80/mt FOB Newcastle

6,322 kcal/kg GAR that was achieved by Australian coal producer Rio Tinto.

The April 1, 2016, to March 31, 2017, contract price for Tohoku is, however, the lowest for nine years since

$55.50/mt FOB Newcastle was struck for the April 2007-March 2008 fiscal year.

Market sources said the price achieved by Glencore in its negotiations for Australian thermal coal deliveries to

Tohoku over the April 2016-March 2017 period was "good," considering prevailing market prices.

Spot market prices have been trading at significantly lower levels, with a May-loading 30,000 mt parcel of

Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR thermal coal having traded at $53/mt FOB on Friday.

It was not immediately clear how much Australian 6,322 kcal/kg GAR thermal coal Glencore would be supplying

to Tohoku in its April-year contract, though in previous years the volume has varied between 20 million and 40

million mt, according to market sources.

The settlement price agreed between Tohoku and Glencore usually becomes the benchmark for deliveries of

Australian thermal coal in the Japan market for the Japanese fiscal year period.

Glencore was approached for comment but did not immediately respond.

日本 2016 至 2017 财年热能煤价格定为$61.60/吨

周一传来的市场消息称，日本东北电力发电机和澳大利亚热能煤矿业巨头 Glencore 就 2016 年 4 月—

—2017 年 3 月日本财政年度合同达成协议，6,322 kcal/kg GAR (6,000 kcal/kg NAR) 煤炭的纽卡斯尔离岸价

格为$61.60/mt。

消息人士称，Glencore 和东北煤矿的双方会谈甚至超期，终于在周六达成共识。

消息人士补充道，东北电力的预期的 6,322 kcal/kg GAR 煤炭的纽卡斯尔离岸价低于$59/mt，而 Glencore

则力图争取$60s/mt 或更高。

相比去年澳大利亚煤炭生产商力拓(Rio Tinto)争取到的 6,322 kcal/kg GAR 财政年度合同价格为

$67.80/mt 的纽卡斯尔离岸价，结算价格下降了 9.14%,

自 2007 年 4 月-2008 年 3 月的财政年度以来，2016 年 4 月 1 日到 2017 年 3 月 31 日,东北电力的合同

价格是九年以来最低的，仅为$55.50/mt 纽卡斯尔离岸价。


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市场消息人士称，考虑当时的市场价格，Glencore 在与东北电力关于 2016 年 4 月-2017 年 3 月澳洲动

力煤供应的商谈期间,争取到了“理想的”成交价格。

五月份运送的 30000 吨 6000 kcal/kg NAR 热能煤周五的报价为$53/mt，这显著降低了现货市场价格交

易水平。

据市场消息称，虽然前几年的供应总量从 2000 万至 4000 万吨不等,尚不清楚澳大利亚 Glencore 将供

应给东北电力多少吨 6,322 kcal/kg GAR 热能煤。

东北电力和 Glencore 达成的结算价格，通常就是日本财政年度期间，澳洲动力煤在日本市场的交付基

准。

Glencore 即将但尚未作出回复。

Trading volumes for US thermal coal futures move

higher in March: CME Group

Monthly trading volumes for US thermal coal futures on the CME Group exchange increased in March, according

to CME Group data issued Thursday.

The Central Appalachia rail (CSX) futures contract traded 987 times in March, up 112.3% from 465 trades in

February. Year-ago trading volumes were not available.

Open interest in the financially settled CSX contract totaled 3,375 contracts at the end of the month, down 16.1%

from 4,025 contracts at the end of February.

The physical front-month price for the CSX contract averaged $37.88/st in March, up 1.8% from February but

down 16.3% from an average of $45.24/st last year.

The financially settled Powder River Basin 8,800 Btu/lb futures contract traded 1,761 times in March, up 193.5%

from 600 trades in February. Year-ago volumes were not available.

Open interest in the PRB 8,800 contract totaled 2,732 contracts at the end of March, down 4.6% from 2,865

contracts the prior month.

The physical front-month price for the PRB 8,800 contract averaged $9.42/st in March, down 4% from $9.82/st in

February and down 12.6% from $10.78/st last year.

The physically settled CAPP barge contract traded 70 times in March, up from zero contracts in February. Open

interest for the contract stood at 100 the end of March, down from 105 contracts in the prior month.

The physical front-month CAPP barge contract averaged $43.45/st in March, up 0.7% from $43.17/st in February

but down 17.3% from $52.55/st from last year.

The exchange is planning to delist the CAPP barge contract after December of this year.

No trade data was included for the physically settled Illinois Basin 11,500 Btu/lb contract, which the exchange

launched in October 2014 but has yet to trade.

美国芝加哥商品交易所热能煤期货交易量在三月份有所上涨

芝加哥商品交易所（CME）周二发布的数据显示，CME 交易所的月度热能煤期货交易量在三月份有

所上涨。

CSX 集团三月份的期货成交次数达到 987 次，相比二月份的 465 次，提升了 112.3%。前年交易总量


59

不算在内。

CSX 集团月底财务结算过的未平仓合约总数达到 3375 份，相比二月底的 4025 份，下降了 16.1%。

三月，CSX 集团即期月份合同的实物价格平均每吨为 37.88 美元，比二月份同期增长了 1.8%，但是，

相较于去年同期平均每吨 45.24 美元的价格，下降了 16.3%。

三月，粉和盆地 8,800Btu/lb 交割期货总数达 1761 次，比二月份同期的 600 次，上涨了 193.5%。前年

交易总量不算。

三月底，PRB8800 的未平仓合约总数达到 2732 份，比上月同期的 2865 份，下降了 4.6%。

三月，PRB8800 即期月份合同的实物价格平均每吨为 9.42 美元，比二月份同期每吨 9.28 美元的价格，

下降了 4%，相较于去年同期平均每吨 10.78 美元的价格，下降了 12.6%。

三月， CAPP 驳船合约的实物交易次数达到了 70 次，而二月同期为零。三月底，未平仓合约总数为

100 份，比上月同期的 105 份，有所减少。

三月，CAPP 即期月份驳船合同的实物价格为平均每吨为 43.45 美元，比二月份同期每吨 43.17 美元的

价格，上涨了 0.7%。但是，相较于去年同期平均每吨 52.55 美元的价格，下降了 17.3%。

该交易所打算于今年十二月，撤销 CAPP 驳船合约。

该交易所 2014 年十月发起的伊利诺斯盆地 11,500 Btu/lb 实物合约仍在继续交易，但是其交易数据不

包含在内。

Polish Q1 2016 seaborne thermal coal exports rise

64.2%

Seaborne exports of Polish thermal coal in Q1 2016 climbed 64.2% year on year to 537,400 mt, data from

state-controlled coal exporter Weglokoks showed Wednesday.

The volume was also 0.5% higher than the last quarter of 2015, which had been the lowest quarterly total for four

years.

About 296,400 mt of Polish thermal coal were sold inland during the January-March period, falling 32.3% on the

year and 17.1% lower than the previous quarter.

Polish exports of hard coking coal -- all delivered inland -- in Q1 2016 were at 108,300 mt, down 44.2% on the

year, but 2.5% higher compared to Q4 2015.

2016 年第一季度波兰热能煤海运出口总量增长 64.2%

国家煤炭出口商 Weglokoks 于周三表示，2016 年第一季度波兰热能煤的海运出口总量同比增长了

64.2%，达到了 537400 吨。

相比季度产量最低的 2015 年最后一季度，总量也有 0.5%的上涨。

1 月到 3 月期间，波兰热能煤的国陆销售总量大约有 296400 吨，本年度下降了 32.3%，比上一季度下

降了 17.1%。

而 2016 年第一季度的硬质焦煤内陆出口量达到了 108300 吨，本年度虽下降了 44.2%，相比 2015 年第

四季度却有 2.5%的增长。

South Korean buyer forges new buying strategy for


60

Colombian

A South Korean power utility and thermal coal buyer has developed a new procurement strategy for Colombian

coal based on prevailing low FOB Colombia prices and weak freight, a market source familiar with the company's

strategy said Tuesday.

The new strategy might facilitate more shipments of Colombian thermal coal to Asia-Pacific customers, including

South Korea, the source said.

Korea East-West Power, or EWP, bought two Capesize cargoes of 130,000 mt each of Colombian coal with a

minimum calorific value of 5,700 kcal/kg NAR coal at $41/mt FOB basis 6,080 kcal/kg NAR, and 410,000 mt of

the same on a CFR basis at $52/mt, basis 6,080 kcal/kg NAR.

By averaging the prices paid for these Colombian cargoes on a CFR and FOB basis, EWP was able to save itself

about $3.50/mt on its purchase price of six Capesize cargoes of Colombian thermal coal, amounting to 670,000 mt,

the source said. This saving works out to about $2.34 million.

The source said that he believed the purchase strategy for Colombian thermal coal could have some staying power

if the spread between FOB Colombia and Newcastle prices continues and freight rates remain low.

Essentially, EWP's strategy takes advantage of the spread between Colombian and Newcastle thermal coal FOB

prices in the Atlantic and Asia-Pacific markets.

Platts assessed the 90-day price of Newcastle 6,300 kcal/kg GAR coal at $49.30/mt FOB, on Friday. Colombian

6,000 kcal/kg NAR coal on a 90-day basis was $42.50/mt, offering a spread of $6.80.

Core to the new strategy is EWP's access to its own dedicated ships through its long-term chartered vessel

contracts, or CVC.

These long-term freight contracts allow EWP to allocate two CVC Capesize ships to carry the thermal coal from

Colombia -- with a sailing time that is three times longer than from Newcastle.

韩国热能煤买家为哥伦比亚制定全新采购策略

周二，有市场知情人士称,基于哥伦比亚煤炭离岸价格和运费普遍走低的现状,韩国电力公司，也是热

能煤买家采用新的采购策略。

知情人士透露，该策略的实施，将增加亚太地区的哥伦比亚热能煤销售量，包括韩国。

韩国东西电力，或者叫 EWP，买了两船每船装载 130000 吨的哥伦比亚煤炭，其最低热值为

NAR5700kcal/kg ，煤炭 NAR6,080 kcal/kg ，离岸价为$41/mt6080,以及 410000 吨相同货物，成本加运费

价格为$52/mt，NAR6080 千卡/公斤。

该知情人士称，平均成本加运费价格和离岸价算下来，EWP 买下满满六批哥伦比亚热能煤，每吨可省

下 3.53 美元，总计 67 万吨。总共估计可以省下 234 万美元。

该知情人士还称，他认为如果哥伦比亚和纽斯卡尔的离岸价继续保持不变，并且运费率始终保持较低

水平，这一哥伦比亚热能煤采购计划将产生一定影响。

重要的是，EWP 正是利用了哥伦比亚和纽卡斯尔热能煤离岸价格的优势打入大西洋地区和亚太地区市

场。

周五，Platts 对纽卡斯尔 kcal/kg GAR 煤炭$49.30/mt 期限为 90 天的离岸价进行评估。哥伦比亚期限为

90 天的 6,000 kcal/kg NAR 煤炭的离岸价为$42.50/mt,优惠 6.80 美元。

EWP 新战略的核心是只通过长期租船合同是用自己的专用船只,或称之为 CVC。

正是由于长期货运合同的签订，EWP 得以从哥伦比亚出发运送满满两船货物出航，比起从纽卡斯尔出


61

发，航程足足增加三倍。

Vietnam Vinacomin's Q1 coal sales rise 6% on higher

demand from power plants

Vietnam National Coal - Mineral Industries, better known as Vinacomin, sold nearly 8.7 million mt of coal to

domestic consumers in the first quarter of this year, up 6.1% from 8.2 million mt in the same period of last year,

due to higher demand from the power sector, the company said in a statement Friday.

But the country's major coal producer also faced stiff competition from other local supply sources and imported

coal from Russia, Australia, Indonesia and China in the first three months of this year, according to the statement.

State-owned Vietnam Electricity, or EVN, the national power generation and distribution company, added more

than 3,400 MW of electricity generation capacity from new coal-fired power plants in 2015.

These power plants consume nearly 10 million mt/year of coal, EVN data showed.

In the first two months, Vietnam imported 2.4 million mt of coal, spiking 295.9% year on year.

The main sources were: Australia with 904,211 mt, up 357.9% year on year; Russia 658,920 mt, 22 times higher

than 29,851 mt in the same period of 2015; China 436,510 mt, more than eight times higher than 51,697 mt over

January-February last year; and Indonesia 380,353 mt, up 58.7% year on year, according to last month's customs

data.

Vinacomin targets to sell 10 million mt of coal in Q2, jumping 14.9% from Q1.

The country's power sector is expected to be the biggest buyer of coal, consuming about 33.2 million mt in 2016,

or about 69.9%, of the estimated total coal consumption in the year.

Power sector consumption is expected to rise to 64.1 million mt, or 74.2% of the total by 2020, about 96.5 million

mt or 79.4% of the total by 2025 and 131.1 million mt or 83.7% of the total demand by 2030, a government report

said last month.

发电厂需求增大，越南 Vinacomin 企业第一季度煤炭销量上升 6%

越南国有煤矿行业，也就是 Vinacomin，于周五发表的声明中提到，由于能源部门的需求扩大，本年

第一季度的国内销售总量达到将近 870 万吨，同比去年的 820 万吨，上升了 6.1%。

该声明表示，即便如此，第一季度，该国的主要煤炭供应商仍面临着严峻的挑战，除了来自国内其他

地方供应商的竞争压力，还有俄罗斯、澳大利亚、印度和中国的大量进口煤炭抢占市场。

越南国家电力，或 EVN，是一家国有电力公司，2015 年，该公司的燃煤发电站产能超过 3400 兆瓦。

EVN 统计数据显示，这些发电站每年消耗的煤炭将近一千万吨。

头两个月间，越南煤炭进口总量达到 240 万吨，同比高达 295.9%。

据去年海关统计数据显示，煤炭主要来源中：澳大利亚进口总量为 904211 吨，同比增长 357.9%；俄

罗斯 658920 吨，相较 2015 年同一时期的 29851 吨，增加了三倍之多；中国 436510 吨，相较去年一月到

二月期间，增长了八倍；印度 380353 吨，同比增长 58.7%。

Vinacomin 计划第二季度的销售量将达到一千万吨，比第一季度增长 14.9%。

越南能源部门估计是最大的煤炭买家，2016 年的消耗量达到 3320 万吨，预计占本年度煤炭总消耗量

的。69.9%

上个月的政府工作报告表明，预计截至 2020 年，能源部门的煤炭消耗量将增至 6410 万吨，占总量的


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74.2%；截止 2050 年，预计达到 9650 万吨，占总量的 79.4%；截止 2030 年，预计达到 1311 万吨，占总量

的 83.7%。

China Curbs Plans for More Coal-Fired Power Plants

HONG KONG — Coal-fired power plants have propelled much of China’s economic rise for decades, helping

make the nation the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. Even with economic growth slackening, and

other energy sources taking hold, new coal plants have been added.

Now Beijing is trying to slow things down.

In guidelines released on Monday, China halted plans for new coal-fired power stations in many parts of the

country, and construction of some approved plants will be postponed until at least 2018.

The announcement, by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy

Administration, means that about 200 planned coal-fired power generators — those seeking approval and those

approved but not yet under construction — may not be completed, said Lauri Myllyvirta, who analyzes China’s

energy production for Greenpeace.

The total of 105 gigawatts of power those plants would have been able to produce is considerably more than the

electricity-generating capacity of Britain from all sources.

“That’s a big chunk of power,” said Bob Hodge, a coal specialist with IHS Energy, a consulting firm. “It’s a lot

of power. It’s a heck of a lot of power.”

Electricity generated from fossil fuels like coal is the biggest single contributor globally to the rise in carbon

emissions, which scientists say is causing the earth’s temperature to rise. Leaders from 175 countries, including

China, gathered in New York on Friday to sign the Paris climate accord, which aims to halt and eventually reverse

the rise in carbon emissions, keeping the increase in global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees

Fahrenheit.

China, by far the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses, is aiming to reach a peak in carbon emissions by

2030. A recent economic slowdown, policies to discourage coal-fired power plants near big cities, and a huge

investment in wind and solar energy capacity helped reduce coal use in China last year.

But even as coal becomes unpopular in China, the country’s biggest state-owned electricity generators are adding

new coal-fired power plants at a pace not seen in a decade, said Mr. Myllyvirta of Greenpeace, which is

acknowledged as an authoritative analyst of China’s energy production. Such plants add to existing overcapacity,

he said.

The announcement does not stop projects already under construction, which amount to about 190 gigawatts of

new coal-fired power generation, he said.

“It’s definitely a positive step, but it’s not even enough to prevent the overcapacity from getting worse,” Mr.

Myllyvirta said.

While the curbs on new coal projects, if rigorously enforced, may help China meet its long-term goals on climate

change and air pollution, the primary motivation for the move appears to be short-term economic considerations.

In the face of the slowest economic growth in a quarter-century, electricity demand has fallen so sharply in China

that some coal-burning power plants are operating only 40 or 50 percent of the time. Construction of wind

turbines and solar panels has also eaten slightly into the market share of the coal plants.

Yet in China’s highly regulated power industry, market signals are weak, and planning and construction of new

power plants had continued apace, pushed forward by local governments eager for the construction jobs and


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expanded tax base. With its new decrees, the central government seems to be trying to halt the development of

power plants that might well be underused if they were built.

Mr. Hodge, the consultant at IHS Energy, said that as of two weeks ago, there were 1,200 new coal-fired plants on

the drawing boards in 59 countries, mostly in Asia, and China was the single largest contributor.

“In my opinion, if they needed the power, they would build them,” he said of China. “I think if you are Beijing,

and you don’t need the power, you can delay them until you might need them. They are not scrapping them.”

The guidelines, dated March 17, state that 13 provinces and regions, including top coal producers like Shanxi and

Inner Mongolia, as well as the southern economic powerhouse of Guangdong, should “strictly control” new

capacity, delaying the approval of new projects until after 2017. A slightly longer list of provinces — 15, with

considerable overlap — were told to put off construction of approved projects that had not yet broken ground.

In both instances, an exception has been made for projects aimed at the “people’s livelihood,” a phrase that was

not explained but may include measures like providing steam heat to homes in wintertime.

The government announcement also calls for an acceleration of the closing of outdated coal-fired plants that use

older, dirtier technology. But China is adding about 1 gigawatt in coal-fired capacity a week, Mr. Myllyvirta said,

as companies that have easy access to loans from state banks build new plants.

That is in stark contrast to the United States, the world’s second-biggest carbon emitter, where it has become

increasingly difficult to build new coal-fired plants under the Obama administration.

Last year, almost 14 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity was retired in the United States, according to the Energy

Information Administration in Washington. At the same time, there are only six new coal-fired plants on the

drawing boards in the United States through at least the next five years, with a total capacity of less than 2

gigawatts, according to the agency.

In China, however, as coal prices drop, the big state-owned electricity generators are benefiting because highly

regulated electricity prices have not fallen in tandem.

中国出台限制煤电新政策

香港——过去几十年，燃煤发电厂为中国经济增长贡献了许多动力，也促使该国成为世界上最大的温

室气体排放国。尽管经济增速正在放缓，其他能源也逐渐发展起来，但中国还是在新建燃煤电厂。

现在，北京试图减缓这一势头。

依据周一发布的指导方针，中国已经在许多地方停止批准新的燃煤电厂计划，一些已被批准的电厂项

目的建设也将被推迟到至少 2018 年。

为绿色和平组织分析中国能源消耗情况的柳力(Lauri Myllyvirta)表示，国家发展改革委员会和国家能源

局联合发布的这项通知意味着，有大约 200 个计划中的燃煤电厂可能不会建成。其中既包括正在等待批准

的，也包括一些已经获批但还没有开始施工的项目。

这些发电站如若建成，装机容量将达到 105 千兆瓦，大大超过英国所有能源发电的总容量。

“那是很大一块发电量，”咨询公司 IHS 能源(IHS Energy)的煤炭专家鲍勃·霍奇(Bob Hodge)说。“相

当多的电量。非常非常多。”

通过燃烧煤炭等化石燃料发电，是导致全球碳排放增长的最大因素，科学家表示这种因素正在导致地

球气温上升。周五，包括中国在内的 175 个国家的领导人聚集在纽约，签署了《巴黎气候协定》。该协定

的目标是遏制碳排放增长，最终扭转其上升趋势，将全球气温增长幅度控制在 2 摄氏度以内。

截至目前，中国依然是世界上最大的温室气体排放国，有可能在 2030 年达到其碳排放的峰值。随着

中国经济增长放缓，加之政府制定政策阻止在靠近大城市的区域建设燃煤电厂，并大力投资风能和太阳能

发电，中国的煤炭消耗量在去年有所下降。


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不过，被认为是中国发电情况权威分析机构的绿色和平的柳力表示，尽管燃煤发电在中国已经变得不

受欢迎，但中国最大的几家国有发电企业还在以近十年未见的速度建设新的燃煤电厂。他还表示，这些新

增电厂会加剧中国本已存在的产能过剩情况。

他还提到，这份通知不会叫停已经在建的燃煤发电项目，这些电厂一旦建成，将形成约 190 千兆瓦的

装机容量。

“这肯定是一项积极的举措，但它不足以阻止产能过剩情况的进一步恶化，”柳力说。

针对新燃煤发电项目的控制措施如能得到严格执行，可能会有助于中国达到自己在气候变化和空气污

染治理方面的长期目标，但政府采取这项举措的主要动因似乎是短期经济考量。

随着经济增速降至 25 年来的最低点，中国的电力需求也大幅下降，一些燃煤电厂只以 40%或 50%的

产能在运转。风力发电机和太阳能电池板的建设也在蚕食燃煤电厂的市场份额。

不过，在中国高度受管制的电力行业，市场信号的作用比较弱，在渴望创造工程就业机会和扩大税基

的地方政府推动下，新发电厂的规划与建设依然在快速进行。通过下达这样的新法令，中央政府似乎在试

图控制这些电厂的发展，因为它们即使建成，也很可能无法充分释放产能。

IHS 能源的霍奇表示，截止两周前，59 个国家的规划版图上共有 1200 个新燃煤电厂项目，它们大多

位于亚洲，其中中国的数量是最多的。

“在我看来，如果需要电力，他们是会建这些电厂的，”他在此处指的是中国。“我觉得如果你是北京

政府，你不需要这些电力，就可以推迟建设，等需要的时候再建。他们不是要淘汰这些项目。”

按照这份落款日期为 3 月 17 日的通知要求，包括山西、内蒙古等产煤大省，以及广东等南方经济强

省在内的 13 个省份和地区应“严格控制”新增发电容量，在 2017 年前暂缓新项目审批。通知还列出一个

比之略长但大部分重叠的名单，要求名单中 15 个省份和地区已经批准但尚未开工建设的煤电项目暂缓开

工。

上述两项要求都将“民生”项目排除在外。通知没有解释这个名词，不过其中可能包括居民冬季供暖

之类的措施。

这项政府通知还要求加快淘汰使用老旧、不环保技术的落后电厂。不过，柳力表示，中国现在平均每

周新增约 1 千兆瓦的燃煤发电容量，因为比较容易从国有银行获得贷款的企业还在建设新发电厂。

这与全球第二大碳排放国美国形成了鲜明对比。在奥巴马政府的治理下，美国要建设新的燃煤发电厂

已经变得越来越困难。

华盛顿美国能源信息管理局的资料显示，去年美国缩减煤电装机容量近 14 千兆瓦，与此同时，美国

至少未来五年的规划图上只有六家新的燃煤电厂，总装机容量为 2 千兆瓦。

但是在中国，煤炭价格的下降令大型国有发电厂受益，因为受到严格管制的电力价格并没有随之下降。

Coal mining giant Peabody files for bankruptcy

protection but claims market will stabilise

Industry-watchers, environmental groups and think tanks have commented on news this morning that the biggest

coal mining company in the US, Peabody Energy, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing downturn

in the coal industry as a major factor.

The company said it will continue with business as usual during the proceedings and has excluded its Australian

operations from the filing, made with the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Missouri.

However, the main Peabody Energy Corporation and the majority of its US entities are included in an action that

Peabody claimed was “targeted towards significant debt reduction and improvement in fixed charges”.


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The company has been able to obtain debtor-in-possession financing to the tune of US$800 million arranged by

Citigroup including a US$500 million term loan. Peabody believes it has enough liquidity to survive and

“continue the flow of goods and services to its customers in the ordinary course”, the company claimed in a

statement.

“The factors affecting the global coal industry in recent years have been unprecedented. Industry pressures in

recent years include a dramatic drop in the price of metallurgical coal, weakness in the Chinese economy,

overproduction of domestic shale gas and ongoing regulatory challenges,” the statement went on to say.

Additionally, assets earmarked to be sold in Colorado and New Mexico will no longer change hands, as an

unnamed buyer was unable to complete the transaction, the company said. However, Peabody claimed that it

believes the market for coal will stabilise.

'Be in no doubt; this is very big news' - reactions this morning

PV Tech has already received commentaries on the news from a number of sources:

Ilmi Granoff, attorney and senior researcher at think tank, the Overseas Development Institute (ODI): "We know

their playbook. As coal majors like Peabody lose out to cleaner technologies in their home markets, they pitch

their industry as the solution to poverty. But increasingly developing economies - from Ethiopia to China -

aren’t buying the pitch. Cleaner technologies are delivering better on everything from household energy access to

national energy security.”

Mary Anne Hitt, director of environmental group Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal Campaign: "The biggest coal giant

has fallen, and Peabody Energy’s bankruptcy should serve as a wake-up call to anyone promising that coal’s glory

days will return. As Peabody grapples with the reality that the world is turning away from coal, it’s essential that it

doesn’t turn away from its obligations to workers, communities, and the environment.

Unfortunately, Peabody has a history of spinning off its responsibilities into smaller companies that seem built to

fail, while taxpayers are left holding the bag. We need to make sure the former energy giant is held accountable

for every promise it’s made and that its decline leaves its commitments in the best shape possible. In addition to

Peabody doing its part, we also need Congress to do theirs -- which means investing more federal dollars in

economic redevelopment and diversification in coal communities, shore up health care and pension plans for coal

workers and their families, and ensure toxic mining sites are cleaned up and reclaimed.

As we transition to the clean energy economy, it’s essential that we don’t forget the immense contributions that

coal communities have made to America and that we secure every family’s livelihood as we transition to new

economic opportunities."

Tom Sanzillo, director of finance at Ohio-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA):

"Peabody Energy, to the detriment of its investors and employees, is bankrupt today because its leadership has

been unable to adjust to new energy markets in which coal is being displaced by new energy sources. That said,

the coal industry is not dead, but it faces a time now in which is must innovate in ways that it has not done before.

That means smaller markets and fewer mines.

Now that they have burned through energy industry deep pockets, multi-decade long government subsidy

programs and public equity markets they must find others sources of capital. New investors will demand a level of

innovation and discipline that has so far been lacking.

Peabody in 2013 reporting 9.285 billion tons of coal in its reserves, and in 2015 reducing that to 6.3 billion tons.

Most of that change comes from write-offs of reserves that are no longer minable by current market economics."

Richard Black, director of UK-based non-profit, Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU): “Be in no doubt;

this is very big news. The coal industry around the world has been under sustained pressure for a number of years

now due to a range of factors, including a glut of coal pushing prices down and the increased availability of

natural gas. But environmental pressures are the biggest factor. In many countries, air pollution is now a major

concern, governments are becoming more and more concerned about the climate impacts of coal; and now the


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biggest private company of all has succumbed.

Phasing out coal in favour of cleaner forms of energy, like natural gas or renewables, is a process which is

accelerating around the world. US companies are going bankrupt, European countries including the UK are

phasing it out, and our research also shows that talk of a coal renaissance in Asian countries is likely to be a red

herring."

Bill McKibben, co-founder of grassroots climate action organisers 350.org: "This is a company that wilfully and

deliberately sought to delay, dismantle or destruct climate action. Perhaps if they had spent more time and money

diversifying their business rather than on lobbying against climate action and sowing the seeds of doubt about the

science, they might not have joined the long (and ever growing) list of bankrupt global coal companies."

Dr. Alison Doig, principal climate change advisor, Christian Aid: “We are starting to see the dawn of a new clean

industrial era, in which coal power belongs in the past. It is time to make a big shift towards a renewable world,

which delivers sustainable energy for all, providing power for the world’s poorest without increasing the risks of

climate change.”

煤炭巨头 Peabody 申请破产保护但称市场将稳定

行业观察家、环保组织以及智库都对今天上午的消息，即美国最大的煤炭公司 Peabody Energy 申请第

十一章破产保护发表评论，该公司援引煤炭行业不景气作为破产的一个主要因素。

该公司表示，在诉讼期间，其将照常运营，并且将其澳洲业务排除在向美国密苏里州东区地方破产法

院提交的申请之外。

然而，Peabody Energy Corporation 的主要部分以及其美国公司的大部分都包括在 Peabody 声称的“瞄

准大幅减少债务并改善固定支出”的行动中。

该公司在一份声明中称，该公司能够获得债务人持有资产融资，总计八亿美元，由花旗集团(Citigroup)

安排，其中包括一份五亿美元定期贷款。Peabody 认为，其有足够的流动资金来生存下去及“继续在正常

的业务往来过程中向其客户提供产品和服务”。

该声明继续表示：“最近几年影响全球煤炭行业的因素都是史无前例的。近年来的行业压力包括冶金

用煤价格的大幅下滑、中国经济疲软、国内页岩气产能过剩以及持续的监管挑战。”

此外，该公司表示，由于一家不愿透露名称的买家无法完成交易，指定在科罗拉多州和新墨西哥州出

售的资产将不再转手。然而，Peabody 称，其相信，煤炭市场将稳定。

“毫无疑问，这是重磅消息”——今天上午的反应

PV-Tech 已收到多方人士对于这一消息的评论：

智库海外发展研究院(ODI)的代理人兼高级研究人员伊尔米·格拉诺夫(Ilmi Granoff)表示：“我们知道

他们的剧本。由于煤炭巨头，如 Peabody，在其本国市场输给了清洁技术，他们将其行业定位为脱贫方案。

但是越来越多的发展中经济体——从埃塞俄比亚到中国——不买账。清洁技术在从家庭能源获取到国家能

源安全的各个方面都发挥更好的作用。”

环保组织塞拉俱乐部(Sierra Club)的超越煤炭运动(Beyond Coal Campaign)的总监玛丽·安妮·伊特

(Mary Anne Hitt)表示：“最大的煤炭巨头已经陨落，Peabody Energy 的破产应该作为警钟，对于任何承诺煤

炭的辉煌时代将回来的人予以警示。由于 Peabody 对抗世界正在告别煤炭的事实，至关重要的是其不躲避

对工人、社区和环境的义务。

不幸的是，Peabody 在历史上有过将其责任分拆到较小的公司却失败的案例，而纳税人被留下来承担

责任。我们需要确保该前能源巨头对其作出的每项承诺负责，虽衰退却使其承诺尽可能处于最佳状态。除

了 Peabody 尽到本分，我们还需要国会尽到自己的本分——意味着投入更多联邦资金到煤炭界的经济重建

和多元化，支持对于煤炭工人及其家庭的医疗保健和养老金计划，并且确保有毒矿场得以清理及回收。

由于我们向清洁能源经济过渡，至关重要的是，我们不要忘记煤炭界对美国作出的巨大贡献，以及我


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们在向新的经济机会过渡中保护每个家庭的生计。”

俄亥俄州能源经济和财务分析所(IEEFA)财务总监 Tom Sanzillo 表示：“Peabody Energy，对于其投资者

和员工造成损害，由于其领导层无法适应煤炭已被新能源取代的新能源市场，今天破产。也就是说，煤炭

行业没有消亡，而是目前面临必须以其从未有过的方式创新。这意味着市场缩小，煤炭减少。

现在他们已经告别了能源行业的雄厚财力、数十年的长期政府补贴计划以及公共股权市场，他们必须

找到其他资金来源。新的投资者将要求迄今一直缺乏的创新与纪律。

Peabody 在 2013 年报告储备 92.85 亿吨煤炭，在 2015 年减少至 63 亿吨。这一改变的大部分来自目前

市场经济不允许更多开采，故而造成储备削减。”

英国非营利机构 Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit(ECIU)总监理查德·布莱克(Richard Black)表示：

“毫无疑问，这是重磅消息。全球煤炭行业多年来一直承受持续压力，现有由于许多因素，其中包括大量

煤炭推动价格下降以及天然气供应量增加。但是环境压力是最大的因素。在许多国家，空气污染目前成为

一个主要问题，各国政府正在越来越关注煤炭对气候的影响，现在最大的私营公司已垮台。

逐步淘汰煤炭，支持更清洁的能源形式，如天然气或可再生能源，是在全球范围内加速的一个进程。

美国公司将要破产，欧洲国家，其中包括英国，正在将其逐步淘汰，我们的研究还显示，亚洲国家的煤炭

复兴可能与事实不符。”

草根气候行动组织者 350.org 联合创始人比尔•麦吉本(Bill McKibben)表示：“这是一家故意并蓄意延

迟、取消或破坏气候行动的公司。也许如果他们花费更多时间和金钱来多元化其业务，而非游说反对气候

行动，撒播对科学怀疑的种子，他们可能不会加入长长的(不断增加的)全球破产煤炭公司名单。”

Christian Aid 首席气候变化顾问艾莉森·多伊格(Alison Doig)博士表示：“我们开始看到新的清洁行业

时代的曙光，煤炭发电属于过去。是时候向可再生世界转变，在不提高气候变化风险的前提下，为所有人

提供可持续能源，为世界最贫困的地区提供电力。”

Electricity（电力）

Vattenfall CEO says Germany's proposed nuclear risk

premium 'too high'

The CEO of Swedish utility Vattenfall, which has large stakes in Germany's Brunsbuttel and Krummel nuclear

plants, said the additional amount German nuclear power producers would have to pay for decommissioning and

spent fuel storage under a proposed plan is "disproportionate to the economic strength of the utilities."

The German Commission on the Review of the Financing of the Nuclear Phaseout, or KFK, recommended to the

German government that nuclear utilities pay a so-called risk premium of Eur23.3 billion ($26.4 billion) into a

fund for decommissioning reactors and final storage of spent fuel, which would be administered by the state.

That payment would be on top of the almost Eur40 billion in provisions that utilities have set aside to finance

decommissioning and storage.

Speaking at a press conference Thursday on Swedish state-owned Vattenfall's first-quarter results, CEO Magnus

Hall said the commission's plan "in principle is a feasible way to organize and finance the nuclear power phaseout

but the risk premium is too high."

However, Hall said Vattenfall, which said last week it would sell its German lignite business, had no plans to

divest its other operations in the country, which also include hydropower production.


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Hall said the lignite sale would cut Vattenfall's CO2 emissions by 60 million mt, more than 70% of the group's

total emissions in 2015.

NUCLEAR TAX

Turning to its Swedish nuclear operations, Hall again called on the government to abolish the capacity tax on

nuclear power. The tax is based on the amount of electricity reactors can generate, not on actual generation.

Hall and other Swedish nuclear utility executives have said that the tax, coupled with low electricity prices, is

making nuclear power unprofitable. As a result, Vattenfall plans to shut two reactors ahead of the end of their

technical lifetimes.

"We will not invest in the reactors if the tax is still there. I have not backed off from that one millimeter," Hall said.

But he added he did not "really know how we will handle" the shutdown of its remaining five reactors if the tax is

not abolished.

Vattenfall also wants to see abolished a special real estate tax on hydropower plants in Sweden, Hall said.

"It's more expensive to produced hydro and nuclear power in Sweden than it is to produce CO2 emitting power in

Germany. Which in my world is a very strange situation," he added.

For the January-to-March quarter, Vattenfall said electricity generation was up 5% year on year at 48.7 TWh.

Fossil fuel-fired generation accounted for 22.5 TWh, flat from the first quarter of 2015, while nuclear was at 13.6

TWh, up from 12 TWh, and hydropower at 10.9 TWh, up from 9.8 TWh.

Sales for Q1 were SEK45.9 billion ($5.7 billion) with profit of SEK 6.6 billion, compared with sales of SEK45.4

billion and profit of SEK5 billion in the year-ago quarter.

瓦腾福（Vattenfall）首席执行官说德国提出的核风险溢价过高

瑞士公用事业公司瓦腾福（Vattenfall）在德国的 Brunsbuttel 和 Krummel 核电站拥有大的股份，其执行

董事长说，德国额外的核电力生产商将不得不为退役买单，下一个计划乏燃料储存与公共事业经济实力是

不成比例的。

德国核淘汰融资评审委员会，或 Krummel 核研究中心，向德国政府推荐说核设施支付所谓的 233 亿欧

元（264 亿美元）的风险溢价用来使反应器退役和乏燃料的最后储存，这些都将由国家来管理。

条款中付款几乎是 400 亿，公共事业公司已经留出了退役和储存的经费。

在周四的关于国营企业瓦腾福第一季度业绩的一个新闻发布会上，首席执行官 Magnus Hall 说委员会

的计划“原则上是一个可行的方法来组织和负担核电逐步停止的经费，但风险溢价太高了”。

瓦腾福说上周它想卖掉它在德国的褐煤生意，然而，Hall 说瓦腾福没有出售其在该国内运营的计划，

也包括水电生产。

Hall 说褐煤销售将消减瓦腾福的 CO2 排放量达 6000 万吨，比集团 2015 年总排放量高 70%。

核缴税

转向其瑞典的核运营，Hall 再一次呼吁政府废止对核能收税。税收是基于电力反应堆能够生产的数量，

而不是实际的生产量。

Hall 和其他瑞典的核公用事业公司的高管们表示税金加上低电价，使得核能没有了利益。结果，

Vattenfall 计划在它们的技术寿命来临之前关掉两个反应器。

Hall 说：“如果仍然受税金的话，我们将不再投资反应器。我态度非常坚决。”但他补充说“真的不知

道我们将如何处理”剩余的 5 个反应堆的关闭，如果税收没有废除。

Hall 说：瓦腾福想要在瑞典水电站看到一个废除的特殊的房地产税。

他又说：“在瑞典生产水和核能要比在德国生产 CO2 更贵，在我的世界里，这是一个非常奇怪的事情。”


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1 月-3 月的季度，Vattenfall 表示与去年同期相比（48.7 TWh），发电量增长了 5%。矿物燃料占 22.5 TWh，

与 2015 年第一季度持平，然而核能从 12 TWh 上涨到 13.6 TWh，水力发电从 9.8 TWh 上涨到 10.9 TWh。

第一季度销售额为 459 亿克朗（57 亿美元），利润为 66 亿克朗，去年同期，销售额为 454 亿，利润为

50 亿。

Shutting Australia’s dirtiest coal plant would have

“negligible” impact on power prices: RepuTex

Shutting down the dirtiest of Australia’s coal-fired power generators in the next couple of years would have a

“negligible” effect on electricity prices, while also helping to the nation’s emissions reduction task and addressing

an oversupply of capacity in the market, a new report has found.

The analysis, by energy and emissions market advisory firm RepuTex, models the introduction of new legislation

which would see emissions-intensive generators – like Victoria’s Hazelwood, Loy Yang A, Loy Yang B, and

Yallourn – bid competitively for the cost of closure of their plant.

This cost would then be paid for by power stations that remained in operation, proportional to their carbon

emissions.

The report found that removing a brown coal generator in 2017-18 would lead to just a 3 per cent increase in the

average annual wholesale pool price for electricity, or just $2.20/MWh to $3.00/MWh, depending on the size of

the generator retired.

For residential electricity bills, falling network costs may completely offset any cost impact of the new policy,

with retail energy prices expected to fall out to 2020.

The policy plan – initially proposed by Australian National University academics Frank Jotzo and Salim Mazouz,

and potentially adopted by Labor under its new policy – would help to cut emissions from the electricity sector,

but would do so without the use of public funds, and without a carbon price.

Incentivising the closure of brown coal power plants would also help drive the decarbonisation of the NEM to

meet the government’s 2030 emissions reduction target, and to address the oversupply of generation capacity in

the market.

And according to RepuTex, now is probably one of the best times to get such a policy plan underway.

“Unlike the period of climate policy development from 2007 to 2013, which took place while distribution and

transmission costs were increasing, we are now likely to see downward price pressure and greater competition

over the next 12 months,” said RepuTex’s associate director of research, Bret Harper.

“That dynamic means it is a good time for new policy – policymakers have a window of opportunity to drive

reform with minimal cost to consumers,” he said.

As RepuTex notes, Australia’s heavily coal-powered electricity sector is responsible for over one-third of national

greenhouse gas emissions.

Last year, the NEM recorded total emissions of 164 Mt, with RepuTex analysis indicating that closing one brown

coal-fired generator in 2017-18 would reduce emissions by 2 to 6 million tonnes per year, or between 6 to 18

million tonnes over the three years to 2020, depending on the size of the generator removed.

“Despite an established ‘oversupply’ in the system, we are unlikely to see any retirement of brown-coal

generation unless this sort of policy is implemented, so the status quo will simply continue,” he said.

“Direct regulation to ensure the orderly exit of emissions intensive generation is the best way to minimise the


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cost to consumers, reduce national emissions and get industry on board.

“Placing the cost of closure on industry, but allowing industry to benefit from increased pool prices, means that

generators are incentivised to participate, and taxpayer funding is not required,” Harper said.

RepuTex notes that the policy proposal would, however, need to be supported by a longer-term policy to

decarbonise the sector.

“In reality, there is no silver bullet to curb Australia’s rising emissions challenge. Industry funded auctions have

the capacity to make immediate emissions reductions within the power sector, however, an emissions baseline or

cap will also be needed to guide our electricity market to the 2020 and 2030 targets,” Harper said.

关闭澳大利亚的肮脏的煤电厂对电价的影响“可以忽略不计”

一项新的报告发现，未来几年关闭澳大利亚肮脏的火力发电发电机对电价的影响“可以忽略不计”，

同时有助于国家的减排任务和解决产能过剩的市场。

这个分析是由能源和排放市场咨询公司 RepuTex 做出的，这个分析模拟了新的立法的引入，这将看到

高排放量的发电机-像维多利亚的黑泽尔伍德（Victoria’s Hazelwood）、Loy Yang A、Loy Yang B 及雅洛恩

电厂-以关闭他们的工厂为代价进行有竞争力的投标。

这个费用将由仍然运营的发电站支付，与它们的碳排放量相称。

报告显示 2017-2018 年除去一个褐煤发电机仅会造成平均每年总电价有 3%的上涨，或者仅仅从

$2.20/MWh 涨到$3.00/MWh，这取决于移除的发电机的大小。

对于居民用电电费，网络成本的下降可能完全抵消任何新政策的成本冲击，零售能源价格有望在 2020

年下滑。

政策规划-最初由澳大利亚国立大学学者 Frank Jotzo 和 Salim Mazouz 提出，根据新政策，可能被劳工

所接受-能够帮助电气行业的排放量，但是没有公共资金的使用，也没有碳价。

激励褐煤火电厂的关闭也能帮助推动低碳经济的新经济模式（NEM），得以实现 2030 年政府的减排目

标，以及处理市场上的产能过剩问题。

根据 RepuTex，现在可能是最好的一个时机来让这样的政策计划实施。

RepuTex 的研究室副主任，Bret Harper 说：“与 2007 到 2013 年的气候政策的发展不同，它们发生在

分布和传输成本增加的时候，我们现在可能看到在未来 12 个月内价格下行的压力和更大的竞争。”

他说：“动态意味着对于新政策是个好时候-政策制定者们有一个机会来推动改革以最小的成本转嫁给

消费者。”

RepuTex 注意到，澳大利亚的大量的燃煤电力行业对三分之一以上的国家温室气体的排放负有责任。

去年，新经济模式记录到总排放量为 164 Mt，RepuTex 分析表明 2017-2018 年关闭一个褐煤燃煤发电

机每年将减少排放量达 200-600 万吨，或者过去的三年里到 2020 年减少排放量 600-1800 万吨，这取决于

移除的发电机的大小。

他说：“尽管系统中是已经确定的过剩，但是我们不太可能看到褐煤应用的移除，除非这种政策能被

实施，所以现状还将继续。”

“直接监管以确保有序退出排放密集型一代是降低转嫁给消费者成本、减少国家排放、使工业顺利发

展的最好方法。”

Harper 说：“把关闭的成本放在工业上，但是允许工业从增长的价格中获益，意味着发电机被激励参

与，纳税人不需要提供资金。”

然而，RepuTex 意识到政策建议需要受到低碳行业长期政策的支持。

Harper 说：“事实上，没有良方来控制澳大利亚正在上升的排放量挑战。行业资助的拍卖有能力做到

在电力行业直接减排，然而，排放的基线和上限仍然需要来指引我们电力市场实现 2020 到 2030 年的目标。”


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100% Renewable Electricity For South Australia By

2030, Greens Propose

If the Greens have anything to say about clean energy policies in South Australia, this land may showcase a 100%

renewable electricity portfolio by 2030.

According to RenewEconomy, the Greens have announced plans to have “… South Australia source 100% of its

electricity needs from clean energy by 2030.” Such a clean energy achievement will generate 1,000 jobs and

include a SolarReserve 100MW solar tower and storage plant near Port Augusta.

This aggressive clean energy plan was made public Monday by Greens leader Richard Di Natale and other

Senators in Adelaide ahead of the forthcoming federal election. He said this target will require an investment of

around $15 billion over 15 years.

As writer Giles Parkinson puts it, “South Australia is the obvious place for the Greens to target a 100 per cent

renewable energy plan. This year, it will be the first mainland state to pass the 50 per cent renewable energy mark,

courtesy of more than 1,500MW of wind energy and 640MW of rooftop solar.”

Labor premier Jay Weatherill also supports a 100% renewable energy future. The official state target is 50% by

2025.

“Transitioning to clean energy is the key to unlocking South Australia’s economic potential and combating

global warming,” di Natale said in a statement. “While both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten talk about

tackling climate change, they have locked us into the industries of the last century, supporting coal and vested

interests.

“It is a testing time for South Australia. The Whyalla community is facing the possible closure of its major

employer while Port Augusta prepares to close its coal-fired power station. Thousands of jobs have been lost in

this state yet our vision for a clean energy future would see this state thrive.”

The Greens back a proposal by US-based SolarReserve to build a 110MW solar tower with storage plant near Port

Augusta. Ironically, this location is where the state’s last coal-fired generator is due to close down in May.

“This plan will deliver major new clean energy projects where the sun shines and the wind blows by working

with industry and the community through a combination of reverse auctions and direct investment,” the Greens

said in their statement.

We will report on developments taking place which will help in achieving this goal.

南澳大利亚绿党提出，在 2030 年前，实现 100%可再生能源发电

绿党一旦在南澳大利亚清洁可再生能源发展政策上动脑筋，估计不到 2030 年，该地区将 100%采用可

再生能源发电。

据 RenewEconomy 称，绿党计划“在 2030 年前，南澳大利亚将 100%采用清洁能源发电。”这一清洁

能源普及计划将新增 1000 个工作岗位，此外，SolarReserve 将在奥古斯塔港建造一座 100 兆瓦的太阳能塔，

和太阳能储备站。

周一，绿党领袖 Richard Di Natale 和其他参议员在即将在阿德莱德举行的联邦选举前公布了该计划。

他说,这一目标的实现在未来 15 年间会需要大约 150 亿美元的投资。

正如作家 Giles Parkinson 所说,“绿党的 100%可再生能源使用计划毫无疑问会在南澳实施。今年,它将

成为第一个可再生能源利用率达到 50%的内陆国家,其中风能总量超过 1500 兆瓦，屋顶太阳能总量超过 640


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兆瓦。”

工党总理 Jay Weatherill 还期望可再生能源未来的利用率能达到 100%。 2025 年的官方目标是 50%。

“转而使用清洁能源是解锁南澳大利亚经济潜力和对抗全球气候变暖的关键,”di Natale 在一份声明中

说。 “Malcolm Turnbull 和 Bill Shorten 在讨论气候变化的应对策略时,局限于上世纪的产业，支持煤炭和

其既得利益。

“南澳大利亚还处于试用期。奥古斯塔港准备关闭燃煤发电站，也就相当于 Whyalla 社区的主要雇主

正面临倒闭的窘境。该国有成千上万的工作岗位缺失，而我们预计未来的清洁能源使用计划会使得这个国

家兴旺起来。”

绿党对美国 SolarReserve 在奥古斯特港附近建造 110 兆瓦的太阳能塔和存储装置的提议表示支持。具

有讽刺意味的是,该国最后的燃煤发电机将在五月关闭，而地点就在此处。

“这一计划主要的新清洁能源项目将在太阳能和风能丰富的地区开展,与行业和社区联手，结合反向拍

卖和直接投资两种方式进行，”绿党在声明中说道。

我们将报告有助于实现这一目标的进展。

New Graphene Solar Cell Makes Rain-Powered

Electricity

The Intertubes have been buzzing with news of an all-weather solar cell that produces an electrical current from

falling raindrops. The research is still far from the marketplace, but it’s yet another indication that the growth

potential of the global solar industry shows no signs of slowing down as new technologies bring on succeeding

waves of efficiency improvements and lower costs.

All else being equal, an all-weather solar cell would expand the geographical map for cost-effective solar

installations in rainy regions, including parts of the US. In fact, you get a twofer, because rain removes dust and

debris from the surface of solar panels, providing a no-cost way to keep them humming along optimally during

sunny weather.


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All Weather, Rain-Powered Graphene Solar Cell

The new rain-powered graphene solar cell was developed by the leading marine research institute Ocean

University of China, in collaboration with Yunnan Normal University.

To wrap your mind around the all-weather concept, consider that rainwater is not pure H20. In its recently

published study, A Solar Cell That Is Triggered by Sun and Rain, the Ocean University research team describes

rain as a giant “salt reservoir full of positively and negatively charged ions.”

The foundation of the device is a rather conventional dye-sensitized solar cell deploying the familiar indium tin

oxide formula. For those of you keeping score at home, the dye is another standard item in the solar toolkit, the

ruthenium-based N-719.

That accounts for the sun-powered part of the equation. The rain-powered part comes in with a “whisper-thin”

coating of graphene. When rainwater comes into contact with graphene (this stuff), its salts dissociate, as

explained in this helpful rundown from researchsea.com:

…the water becomes enriched in positive ions and the graphene becomes enriched in delocalized electrons. This

results in a double-layer made of electrons and positively charged ions, a feature known as a pseudocapacitor. The

difference in potential associated with this phenomenon is sufficient to produce a voltage and current.

The solar conversion efficiency of the device clocks in at a maximum of 6.53 percent for simulated sunlight.

You’ll have to read the full study for details on the rain-powered output, but the abstract describes it as “a voltage

of hundreds of microvolts.”

Those figures don’t sound all that impressive, but the point of early stage research is to identify promising

pathways for improvement, and the team is confident that its findings will open up the solar map in new ways.

Is That The Best You Got, Koch Bros?

This is just one of many other new solar R&D projects (here’s another recent example) indicating that the solar

industry can continue to look forward to falling costs and rising efficiencies.


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One case in point is indium tin oxide (ITO). While ITO has been the go-to material for transparent thin film solar

cells, it is relatively brittle. A team at Brookhaven National Laboratory has been noodling around with the idea of

replacing it with a combination of graphene and plain window glass, so there’s that.

In the context of all this activity, it’s worth noting that the anti-solar lobby seems to have stopped trying to back up

its position with any kind of solid public policy research.

The latest major effort occurred last year, when Utah State University’s Institute of Political Economy (IPE) came

out with a pair of reports purporting to blow up the case for wind and solar subsidies.

Both reports have a half-hearted, paint-by-numbers feel. Here’s a snippet from the Executive Summary for the

solar report, titled, “Reliability of Renewable Energy: Solar.”

…IPE determined that using tax dollars to mandate and subsidize solar power is not a worthwhile investment

because the high costs of overcoming solar power’s unreliability outweigh its limited environmental benefits. First,

solar power is heavily dependent on government subsidies and mandates, and the solar industry is not

economically viable without them…

That subsidy argument is more than a bit disingenuous considering the massive, generations-long record of

preferential treatment accorded the US fossil fuel industry, but consider the source. Back in 2012 IPE received a

$1.54 million grant from the fossil-friendly Charles Koch Foundation, as reported by The Salt Lake Tribune:

The USU donation will be used to hire two tenure-track professors and pay for programs and building costs at the

Jon M. Huntsman School of Business, specifically in its Institute of Political Economy and in Huntsman Hall.

Not helping things in the scholarly merit department is the author list of the solar report, which consists of Randy

T. Simmons (this guy) of Utah State University, Ryan M. Yonk of Utah State University, and Jordan Lofthouse of

the Koch-funded think tank Strata Policy (these guys).

Actually, all three authors are connected to Strata. Simmons and Yonk were instrumental in the founding of Strata

back in 2003, with the idea of creating this:

…an environment where students would become part of an academic apprenticeship — where they would be

trained as policy analysts and professional researchers — without the traditional academic restraints found in the

classroom.

Maybe Strata should not have so enthusiastically thrown out the baby with the bathwater when it comes to

traditional academic restraints. When Simmons’s Koch connections came to light last year, Utah State posted a

permanent disclaimer/disclosure/apology on its website. Among other academic shortcomings, the post notes that

Simmons seems unaware of “the most basic statistical principle: correlation is not causation.”

雨水供电的新型石墨烯太阳能电池

小道消息称，全天候太阳能电池将利用降雨生成电流。虽然该产品仍在研发阶段，不过不难看出全球

太阳能产业仍在蓬勃发展，不断有新技术涌现，电源配置不断改进，成本也在不断降低。

别的且不谈，这款全天候太阳能电池的适用范围更为广泛，囊括降雨频繁的地区，如美国部分地区。

实际上，还有一个额外的好处，雨水可以冲刷净太阳能仪表盘上的灰尘和碎渣，无需额外花钱维护，即可

保证其在晴天自行高效运行。


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全天候，雨水供电石墨烯太阳能电池

海洋研究权威机构中国海洋大学，联手云南师范大学，开展新型雨水供电石墨烯太阳能电池的研究。

要想实现全天候运行，就不能仅仅简单把雨水视作 H2O。在其最新发布的研究报告中，中国海洋大学

研究组将这一晴雨双驱的太阳能电池的描述为巨大的“充满正负离子的储盐罐”。

结构设备的基础是一个色素增感太阳能电池,而非传统部署所使用的铟锡氧化物分子式。对于那些一心

求稳的人,染料相当于另一个标准项太阳能工具包,也就是钌基 N - 719。

这是阳光驱动部分的反应式。雨水驱动部分带有薄薄一层石墨烯涂层。当表层石墨烯接触雨水，其中

的盐分便被分离开来，researchsea.com 纲要中给出的相关解释说明便于理解：

水受到正离子强化，石墨烯则受到离域电子强化，进而生成双层膜，也就是赝电容现象。潜在的差异

与这种现象足以产生电压和电流。

设备时钟模拟太阳光的太阳能转换效率最多 6.53%。你必须阅读雨水驱动输出的完整研究细节,抽象描

述也就是“数以百计的微伏电压。”

这些数字听起来不那么令人印象深刻,但早期的研究只是为了确定改进的途径,该团队相信其研究结果

将打开太阳能利用的新篇章。

这就是最好的了吗，Koch Bros？

这只是许多新太阳能 R&D 项目之一(这是另一个最近的例子)，这表明太阳能产业有望实现成本下降和

效率上升。

氧化铟锡(ITO)是个很好的例子。尽管 ITO 是太阳能电池透明薄膜的最佳材料,它却相对脆弱。布鲁克

海文国家实验室的一个小组正在打算用石墨烯和普通窗玻璃的合成物取代它。

在所有这些活动中,值得注意的是,日游说似乎已经放弃利用一切可靠的公共政策研究佐证自己观点的

尝试。

去年，犹他州州立大学政治经济学院(IPE)发布了两份报告，大肆鼓吹风能和太阳能补贴，这也是去年

的最新重大进展。

从这两份报告似乎都只是草草了事。这里有一段太阳能执行概要报告的片段,题为“可靠的可再生能源:


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太阳能。”

…IPE 认为使用纳税人的钱授权和补贴太阳能，并不是一项有价值的投资,因为克服太阳能不可靠性的

高成本大于其有限的环境效益。首先,太阳能严重依赖政府补贴和授权,若非政府支持，太阳能产业并非经

济可行的…

鉴于美国化石燃料行业历来享受到的极大优惠待遇,这一点小小的补贴实在不值一提。早在 2012 年，

IPE 就曾收到来自查理斯•科赫化石燃料基金会 154 万美元的赠款，《盐湖城论坛报》报道:

USU 捐款将用于雇佣两位终身教授，支付项目支出和乔恩•M•亨茨曼商学院建筑成本,特别是在政治经

济学院和亨茨曼大厅的建设。

学术价值部门太阳能报告撰写人列表中,犹他州立大学的 Randy T. Simmons(这个人),犹他州立大学的

Ryan M. Yonk,和 Koch 基金会 Strata Policy 智囊团的 Jordan Lofthouse(这些人)，并未参与实际研究。

实际上,三位作者都是 Strata 相关人士。早在 2003 年，Simmons 和 Yonk 就有了这一想法，并对 Strata

的创设起着重要作用:

……这样一个环境下,使得学生将成为学术学徒,经过训练成为政策分析师和专业研究人员——没有了

传统教授方式的各种限制。

也许 Strata 在应对传统学术限制上不应该如此草率鲁莽。当去年，当 Simmons 和 Koch 的关系曝光时,

犹他州在其网站上发布了一份永久声明/披露/道歉。《华盛顿邮报》指出,在众多学术弊端中,Simmons 似乎

并没有意识到“最基本的统计原则:相互关系并非因果关系”。

Renewable Generation Increased By 152 GW In 2015,

According To IRENA

New data released by the International Renewable Energy Agency has shown global renewable energy generation

capacity increased by 152 GW in 2015, up 8.3%.

According to Renewable Capacity Statistics 2016, released this week by the International Renewable Energy

Agency (IRENA), global renewable energy capacity had reached 1,985 GW. Leading the way was hydro, which

according to IRENA’s definitions, includes large-hydro, or hydro plants greater than 10 MW in size, which are

often removed from renewable energy figures.


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“Renewable energy deployment continues to surge in markets around the globe, even in an era of low oil and gas

prices,” said IRENA Director-General Adnan Z. Amin. “Falling costs for renewable energy technologies, and a

host of economic, social and environmental drivers are favoring renewables over conventional power sources.

This impressive growth, coupled with a record $286 billion invested in renewables in 2015, sends a strong signal

to investors and policymakers that renewable energy is now the preferred option for new power generation

capacity around the world.”

IRENA found that 2015 was a record year for both wind and solar, thanks to a continuing decrease in technology

costs. Wind power grew by 17% in 2015, installing 63 GW, while solar capacity increased 37%, with 47 GW

installed during the year. Hydropower capacity increased by only 3%, but with an impressive 3%, representative

of hydro’s total installed capacity of 1,209 GW.

The developing world is leading the way in terms of fastest growth in 2015. Central America and the Caribbean

saw their renewable energy generation capacity expand at 14.5% during 2015, while in Asia, where new additions

in 2015 accounted for 58% of new global capacity in 2015, expanded at a rate of 12.4%. Meanwhile, capacity

increased by only 6.3% in North America and 5.2% in Europe.

This is in line with the UN Environment Programme’s Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016

report, published late March, which revealed investments in the developing world outstripped those in the

developed world for the first time, with a total of $156 billion invested into renewable energy in 2015.

“The significant growth rates for renewable generation capacity in developing economies are a testament to the

strong business case for renewable energy,” added Mr. Amin. “Renewables are not just a solution for

industrialized countries, they are also powering economic growth in the fastest growing economies in the

developing world.”

IRENA 表示，2015 年可再生能源产能增长量达到 152 吉瓦

国际可再生能源署最新一组调查数据显示，2015 年，全球可再生能源产能增长了 152 吉瓦，所占比重


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达上升了 8.3%。

国际可再生能源署(IRENA)本周发布的 2016 年可在生产能数据显示，全球可再生能源产能已达到 1985

吉瓦。其中水力资源所占比重最大，根据 IRENA 的定义，水力资源包括大型水利，或者是规模大于 10 兆

瓦的水电站，而水力发电量通常不被算在可再生能源产能之列。

“国际市场持续不断的进行可再生能源调度，即便是在油气价格较低的地区，” IRENA 署长 Adnan Z.

Amin.表示。“技术成本的降低，加之大部分经济、社会和环境因素的趋使，使得可再生能源比传统能源更

具优势。这一跨越式的增长，以及 2015 年可再生能源领域 2860 亿的新增投资款项，无一不向投资者和政

策制定者展示出可再生能源目前在全球能源产量中举足轻重的地位。

IRENA 调查发现，由于技术成本的持续走低，2015 年的风能和太阳能利用率创历史新高。这一年之

内，风能利用率上升了 17%，产能增加了 63 吉瓦，而太阳能利用率增长了 37%，产能增加了 47 吉瓦。水

力产能仅增长了 3%，不过实际增长量则达到了 1208 吉瓦，也是不小的增长。

2015 年，发展中国家的发展速度遥遥领先。这一年里，中美和加勒比地区的可再生能源产能增长了

14.5%，而亚洲地区的增长量占全球总增长量的 58%，增长率达到了 12.4%。与此同时，北美地区仅增长

了 6.3%，欧洲仅为 5.2%。

这与联合国环境署于 2016 年 3 月底发布的全球可再生能源投资趋势报告相契合，该报告显示，2015

年，发展中国家在可再生能源领域的投资首次超越发达国家，投资总量达到了 1560 亿美元。

“发展中国家可再生能源产能的大幅增长，证明了可再生能源的巨大发展前景，”Amin 补充道。“可

再生能源不仅有利于发达国家，还能驱动发展中国家的经济迅速增长。”

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