Energy System in the Sharing Economy

2014.�8.�29

한국에너지기술평가원

원장안 남성

Third Industrial Revolution

2010 -

Mass ProductionVertical Integration

Sharing Economy

Mass Customization

Platform business using Network Effect(IoT, 3D Printing)

Technology Innovation has led to High Productivity, Low Cost

- 1 -

Revolution in Business

Land

(Resource)

Capital

Labor

제 1차 산업 혁명이 인적 자원생산성 향상(기계),

2차 산업 혁명은 자본의 생산성향상(전력망, 자동차 등),

미래는 자원의 생산성 향상(자원의 공유로 효율향상)이가장 중요

- 2 -

자본주의는 사물인터넷(IoT)이라는 혁명적인 플랫폼을 통해

미래 공유사회로 변화중 (Jeremy Rifkin)

Communication internet, energy internet, logistic internet 등 IoT분야 기술혁신이 생산성 증대와 한계비용을 제로에 가깝게 만들면서자본주의 경제(capitalism Economy)에서 ‘공유경제(Sharing Economy)’로 전환

• IoT, 3D 프린터와 오픈소스 스프트웨어를 통해 스스로 제품생산, 신재생에너지, 개방형

온라인 강의 등 대부분의 재화와서비스를 모든 사람이 거의 무료로 공유,

• Data Security 와 Protection of Personal Privacy 가 중요

공유경제란?

대규모자본투자를 요구하는현재의수직통합적 산업구조에기반한자본주의 경제구조대신 IoT 기반인프라즉 Platform Business를 기반으로 자원의 생산성을증가시키는분산형,�협동적,�수평적 규모의경제구조 (Distributed,�collaborative,�laterally��scaling�of�economy)

IoT and Sharing Economy

- 3 -

What is IoT(Internet of Things) ?

126.4lb126.4lb

Digital Sensor M2M connection IoT

IoT란?

Comminication Internet, Energy Internet, Logistic Internet으로 구성된 지능형 네트워크에서

모든 기계, 사람 , 비즈니스, Residence, Vehicle를 하나로 연결하여 운영하는 시스템.

- 4 -

Resource Revolution

근본적 효율 향상 방안 필요, 엔진 기술향상보다는 자원의 공유를 통해 효율향상

효율화 수단이 IOT

- 5 -

The Platform Company

30% fromothers

- 6 -

Network Effect and Complementary Goods

InstalledBase

Attractivenessfrom Network Size

ProductAttractiveness

MarketShare

Sales

IndustryDemand

ExpectedMarket Size

Attractiveness fromAvailability of

Complementary Goods

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

ComplementaryGoods

+

Network Effect

Complementary Goods

Attractiveness ofMarket to Third Party

• 미래 혁신 기업은 돈을 남이 벌어주는

회사

• 지난 1년동안 애플은 주식 값이 30% 이상 상승, 삼성은 15% 상승

→ 15% 차이는 앱스토어 (The third party Software) 차이

• 최근 삼성전자가 미국의 사물인터넷

(IoT·Internet of Things) 업체 ‘스마트

싱스(SmartThings)’를 인수

- 7 -

Sharing Economy

- 8 -

Uber – Car Sharing (IoT : Things à Car)

Now (2014) $18.2 B Worth More Than Hertz

$40/hr (20% Fee)

San Francisco 1,600 Taxi vs. 1,000 Uber

Market $22 B à Other

Regulatory Hurdle

일반인도 택시 알바 … '우버' 또 논란

정부로부터 택시기사 사업자 면허를 발급받을 필요가 없다. 우버가정한 기준과 면접만 통과하면 된다. 우버코리아는 “보험에 가입된자가 소유 자동차가 있는 26세 이상 성인 중에서 우버엑스 기사를뽑고 있다”고 밝혔다. 우버코리아는 당분간 승객에게 이용료를 안받고 우버엑스를 시범 운영한 후 유료로 전환할 방침이다. 이처럼우버가 사실상 택시 영업 시장 진출을 선언하면서 기존 택시기사들의 반발도 커지고 있다 . 중앙일보 (2014.8.29)

- 9 -

Airbnb – House Sharing (IoT : Things à House)

- 10 -

Now (2014) $10.0 B Worth More Than Hyatt

6~12% Fee

SNS Based Service- 10 -

Teslar Motors – Electricity Sharing (IoT : Things à VPP)

Now (2014) $32.4 B ($6.6 B) Worth More Than 2/3 GM Motors

- 11 -

NEST Labs / View – Load Sharing (IoT : Things àT/S, Window)

- 12 -

IoT à 에너지수요관리 Platform : NEST Labs Business Model

$40 ~ $4,900 /MWh

$110 ($85 /$25) 5,500 Households50% sign up13 MW reduction$2 M rewards

- 13 -

IoT : Agenda for Global Governance (Standard, Format)

English (A, B, C…)

- 14 -

IoT Platform : Industry 4.0 (Germany)

- 15 -

Samsung + Startup Alliance for IoT Era

August 14, 2014 3:36 PM Samsung has bought prominent connected-device startup SmartThings.

The South Korean giant announced the news today but didn’t disclose terms. Re/code, citing anonymous sources, pegged the deal at around $200 million. Today’s deal could have big implications in the growing Internet of things world, at least judging by the stated plans in the press release on the deal:

- 16 -

IoT Platform : Industrial Internet (GE)

- 17 -

GE + Startup Alliance for IoT Era

SAN RAMON, Calif., June 25, 2014 – GE (NYSE: GE) announced today the launch of Frost I3, a new Industrial Internet incubator with Frost Data Capital to create and grow up to 30 new startups over the next three years.

GE’s Predix platform

- 18 -

Sensor Infrastructure

GE is developing sensors that could be printed inside machines

- 19 -

Jet Engine

Maintenance crews can already gather data from jet engines like the GEnx - 20 -

Gas Turbine

- 21 -

Wind Power Up

- 22 -

Energy system in sharing economy

- 23 -

Energ

yTra

nsportation

Centralization ( Urbanization) 19c Decentralization (Rural) 20cPow

er

Com

munic

ation

Decentralized, local, small 21c

Coal

Steam Powered Train

Steam Engine

Telegraph, Steam Powered

Printing

Oil & Gas

Automobile

ICE, Motor

TelephoneRadio, TV

Distributed Energy System (Renewable,

Demand Response,SMART Grid)

EV

Electricity

Internet, IoT (Internet of Thing)

Communication/Energy/Logistics Matrix (Path Dependence)

- 24 -

Historically, Market discovered and promoted a new engine for growth at each crisis : Economic Driver for Job Creation and Economic Growth

Great Depression(1929 – 1930)

World War,Cold War

Military Industry

Internet and Network Economy

(1.6 new million jobs and Trillions in Profits )

Asia’s Financial Crisis

(1990s)Dotcom Bubble

(2000s)

Housing and Financing Economy

Financial Crisis(2008)

What is next Engine for Economic Growth?

Solution

Green Growth:Renewable Energy & Nuclear How about the outcomes of Green Growth Policy?

If not satisfied, why?

New Growth Engine

- 25 -

How much more Solar PV energy cost fall?

- 26 -

Was Renewable energy the growth engine as expected?

- 27 -

These days the challenges that industries likesolar, wind, and biofuels face are often not aboutfundamental science. Many of the bigbreakthroughs have already taken place, and insome circumstances, electricity from wind andsolar is already cheaper than electricity fromfossil fuels.)

What hampers there industries now is poor saleschannels, complex financing and incentives, anda failure to communicate with consumers(Business Model).

That makes them ripe for disruption by theapplication of IT, which will drive the next phaseof cost reduction and implementation, especiallyfor solar….

(Source: S. Paul and N. Allen, MIT Technology Review, 2012) Now

Tomorrow

Cost Reduction & Business model is the key!

More Business Model and Product Innovation combined with IT

- 28 -

Economic Impact of Renewable Energy is relatively Low among 12 disruptive technologies

Communication Internet

Logistic Internet

Energy Internet

Potential economic impact of technologies

- 29 -

: Convergence of Disruptive Technologies

Next Engine for Economic Growth

- 30 -

InternetInternet of ThingsMobile Internet+EV+StorageCustomer Choice

Paradigm Shift in Energy Technology

- 31 -

: Convergence with Storage System

One Way of Additional Value Creation to Renewables

- 32 -

MIT Media Lab Changing Places & Smart Cities Group

Energy Buffer

New Energy Networks for Electric Mobility

- 33 -

RoboScooterGreenWheel

CityCar

Mobility-on-Demand SystemsA Lightweight Electric Vehicle Ecosystem

New Use Model Users are allowed to pick up electric vehicles from any charging station and drive to any other charging station in a one-way sharing scheme (point-to-point rental)

MIT Media Lab City ScienceMIT Media Lab

Changing Places & Smart Cities Group - 34 -

Multi-Modal Recommendation Engine

CityCar

MIT Media Lab City Science

Persuasive Electric Vehicle (PEV)

RoboScooter & GreenWheel

MIT Media Lab Changing Places & Smart Cities Group

- 35 -

(Source: Harvard Business Review 2013)

Disruptive technological innovation

Disruptive technological innovation:신제품은 5개 단계의 시장을 연속적으로 거쳐대중성을 확보

Big-bang disruption: 신제품이 일부의 초기사용자만으로도 완벽하고빠르게 광범위한 대부분의 시장에 수용됨

(ex) 스마트폰, 전기자동차, 스마트그리드

Big-Bang Disruption

- 36 -

- 37 -

Why Tesla Motors Succeed so fast?

• Learning Curve for Battery Price: from 4% to 8%

• Amount of Drive Range: from 50 miles to 250 miles • The speed: already higher than you can legally go on

any highway. It used to be golf cart speed, and now we’re talking about race cars.

• EV price: about a 40 percent learning curve, which means it almost halves with every year

- 38 -

Given that annual new vehicle production is approaching 100 million per year and the global fleet is approximately 2 billion cars, it is impossible for Tesla to build electric cars fast enough to address the carbon crisis. By the same token, it means the market is enormous. Our true competition is not the small trickle of non-Tesla electric cars being produced, but rather the enormous flood of gasoline cars pouring out of the world’s factories every day.

Technology leadership is not defined by patents, which history has repeatedly shown to be small protection indeed against a determined competitor, but rather by the ability of a company to attract and motivate the world’s most talented engineers. We believe that applying the open source philosophy to our patents will strengthen rather than diminish Tesla’s position in this regard.

All Our Patent Are Belong To YouBy Elon Musk, CEO

Using Electrification of Ground Transportation System, We can save 30% of fossil fuel used in transportation without affecting ground transportation!

Nampyo Suh, MIT

- 39 -

국민 발전소 Platform

발전소 효율을 증가 시키는것은 매우 어려움

피크용 발전소는 1% 정도운전자원 낭비

Big Data를 이용하여 불필요한전기를 줄여서 공유하는 시스템

- 40 -

Value in 국민발전소

에너지정책의전환(공급중심 수요중심)�에너지정책의전환(공급중심 수요중심)�

§ 피크시수요관리로고부가가치창출

§ 수요자원의거래를통한혁신적시장조성

§ 피크시수요관리로고부가가치창출

§ 수요자원의거래를통한혁신적시장조성

발전원가절감발전원가절감

§ 피크시시장가격이오프피크시보다

6~7배 높음

§ 시장가격을 1원감소시키면연간 1,500억원 발전원가절감

§ 피크시시장가격이오프피크시보다

6~7배 높음

§ 시장가격을 1원감소시키면연간 1,500억원 발전원가절감

핵심가치창출핵심가치창출

§ 연간60~100시간피크시수요반응(DR)을통한 시장가격조정이효율적

§ 연간60~100시간피크시수요반응(DR)을통한 시장가격조정이효율적

- 41 -

IoT for Demand Response in Factory

- 42 -

Free Energy 시대 도래

Internet technology and renewable energies are beginning to merge to create an energy internet that will change the way the power is generated and distributed in society.

In the coming era, hundreds of millions of people will produce their own renewable energy in their homes, offices, and factories and share green electricity with each other on energy internet at nearly zero marginal cost, just as we now generate and share information online.

When internet communications manage green energy, every human being on Earth becomes his or her own source of power. The creation of renewable regime, loaded by buildings, partially stored in the form of hydrogen, distributed via a green energy internet, and connected to plug-in, zero emission transport that will allow billions of people to share energy at near zero marginal cost in an IoT world.

25 years from now

- 43 -

That is beginning to evolve on a small scale as hundreds of start up businesses established 3D printing operations, infofacting products at nearly zero marginal cost, powering their Fab Labs with their own green energy, marketing their goods for nearly free on hundreds of global websites, and delivering their products in electric and fuel cell vehicles powered their own green energy

(Jeremy Rifkin, Zero Marginal Cost Society)

- 44 -

New York State is proposing to turn its electric utilities into a new kind of entity that would buy electricity from hundreds or thousands of small generators and set prices for that electricity and for the costs of running the power grid.

The proposal anticipates a radically different electric system, dominated by decentralized production, much of it of renewable, intermittent energy sources like solar or wind power. The Public Service Commission is considering how the utilities would have to change.

Instead of distributing electricity themselves, the utilities would effectively direct traffic, coordinating distribution of electricity produced by a multitude of smaller entities, according to an outline published last month by the commission, which regulates utilities

New York Times, May 13, 2014

State Energy Plan Would Alter New York Utilities

- 45 -

How to reshape the energy system in sharing economy?

How to transform to a new energy system ?

What do we need to prepare?

- 46 -

Challenges in Energy Industry?