Environmental indicators in economic modelsJM Terres – JRC – Institute for Environment and Sustainability

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Outline

Broad challenges

Modelling agricultural impact on the environment. BioMA concept. Tools at farm level, policy measure level

Integrated economic and agri-environment modeling. CAPRI – Environment:. IFM-CAP-Agri-Environment Indicators

Future challenges – how to tackle them

Broad challenges of Agriculture and Environment

Models for evaluation and impact assessment

EC to report by 2018 – and every 4 years thereafter – on CAP performance for main objectives (food production, natural resources, territorial development).

CAP Horizontal Regulation - Monitoring & Evaluation

Need to test ‘internally’ variant scenarios for policy design

Budget for Europe 2020: 20% for climate related expenditure

Prospective: sustainability assessment, food security, footprint, LC analysis, planet boundaries …

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Model Integration: BioMA - Biophysical Model Applications

Modelling agricultural impact on environment

Water

Erosion

Temperature

SOIL

Weather

Agro-management

Modelling solution

Diseases

Crop model implemented wofostwarm: rice canegrow

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Tools assessing farm practices, policy measures

Low Carbon Farming: a carbon calculator Assess carbon footprint of farm practices and farm products

client: DG ENV

SOSTARE: Sustainability assessment at farm level agronomic efficiency economic results protection of the environment

client: Regione Lombardia

OSCAR: Assessing GHG emission for Rural Development measuresClient DG CLIMA

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CAPRI for agri-environmental assessment: why?

Provides input data to bio-physical models or to indicators (e.g crop shares,

animal stocking densities, yields, input use (N,P,K; energy; feed ...)

Ex-post data (e.g. production, consumption, trade flows, prices, crop shares, yield, N-fertilizer input per crop …)

are based on EU official data sources (FSS, FADN …) are consistent across scales: farm type / region / MS / EU / trade blocks are used in economic modules and passed to environmental models / indicators

The CAPRI baseline is in line with DG-AGRI projections, provides benchmark for counterfactual scenarios

Therefore consistent modelling chain for economic (farm income, trade flows …) and environmental assessment is ensured

Integrated economic and agri-environment modeling

Linking economic to environmental models

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CAPRI

Crop share

Meteo

Admin units

Soil

Landform

Inputs (NPK)

Bio-physical / environmental model

Results: NUTS2Local / detailed spatial data

Linking economic & bio-physical models

AE Indicators available in CAPRI

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• N,P balances: Gross Nutrient Balance (N, P)

• Accounting scheme for emissions relevant for Global Warming mutually consistent with N-Balance (GHG, NH3, NOx, N2, NO3

−)

• Energy use indicator for agricultural activitiesAccounts for direct (gas, heating ..) and indirect (fertilizers, plant protection,

machinery, buildings, feed …) energy input

Risk of Soil Erosion

Biodiversity Friendly Farming Practices

Agricultural Landscape Structure

Farmland Bird Index (proxy)

Application example: CAP greening measures

Modelisation of CAP greening measures

Permanent grasslands: maintenance of grassland area to prevent its conversion to arable land.

Ecological focus area (5% fallow and/or set-aside land of total eligible area, landscape features)

Crop diversity: minimum 3 crops on arable land minimum and maximum thresholds for each crop set at 5% and 70% of the arable land,

respectively.

9To be updated

Modelling EU Farmer level responses: A EU wide farm level model for ex-ante assessment of CAP reform.

Individual-Farm Level Model (IFM-CAP)

Agri-Environmental Indicators

• AE commitments• Soil Management• Pesticides• Nutrient management• Water management• GHG / ammonia emissions• Biodiversity• Energy prod / consumption

Cost

Production factors

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Future challengesIntegrated Modeling in Agriculture (Eco) & Environment

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Thank you

Impact of agriculture on the environmentor impact of the environment on agriculture ...

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GGELS: A Life Cycle Analysis in CAPRI to GHG emissions for the livestock sector in the EU

Main results

Share of total GHG emission for livestock sector (Mt CO2 eq)

Total and composition of GHG emission per kg of product