코로나와 플랫폼 경제 · 2020. 7. 20. · sacha arnoud, director of engineering (waymo)...
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코로나와플랫폼 경제
강정수 1
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AI 기반 기업의 성장과AI-Lockin-Loop에 따른독과점 경향
강정수 2
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the rise ofthe AI-Powered Companies
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& monopolistic tendenciesbased on AI-Lockin-Loop
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Winners& Losers
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강정수 6
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Price Change - First Half 2020:
Amazon(42.9%)
Apple(24.2%)Microsoft(29.0%)
강정수 7
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Price Change - First Half 2020
Boeing: -43.7%
Expedia: -24%
Delta Air Lines: -47.5%United Airlines: -55.4%강정수 8
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Price Change - First Half 2020
Zoom; 272.6%
Tesla: 158.1%Nvidia: 61.5%
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코로나COVID-19Pandemic
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Qs!
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강정수 12
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강정수 13
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강정수 15
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Fear & Dread
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fear: [일반적인 공포, 두려움]을 의미dread: 마주하고 싶지 않은,그러나 [마주해야하는 구체적 공포, 두려움]
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in uncertain times불확실의 시대
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Sharp discontinuities
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Before CoronaAfter CoronaPost-Corona
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a cliché
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Fear& Dread
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We start to seeour fellow humanas a potential enemy
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Fear& Dread
강정수 25
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The Stress ofLockdown
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It's not just the viruswe fear
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but the future itself.
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seeing the futurenot as a promisebut as a threat
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Qs!
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climate crisis?
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machine crisis?
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AI-Impact on Productivity
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$13trn
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$13trn? = nearly China's GDP
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AI-Impact = Fire or Electricity
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Is AI reallya world changing technology?
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Will AIhavea world-alteringimpact?강정수 38
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AI = machine learninghave mademuch progress.
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in the early 2010srecognizing patterns in data(images, speech, etc.)강정수 40
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improved algorithmsmore powerful computersmore data
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powerfulpattern-recognitiontools
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AI= a general-purpose= technology
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affectingentire economies
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Geoffrey Hinton: "in five years", "might be ten years" (2017)
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medical diagnosis?
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CoronaCovid-19
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by handwith telephone callswith shoe leather
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Workers replaced by robots?
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a wave of unemployment
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automation technologiesacceleratedbased on AI-Technology
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automation technologiesaimed at reducing laborby substitutingcheaper capital강정수 56
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displacedworkers
강정수 57
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DisplacementEffect
강정수 58
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Lilly Irani“Automation doesn’t
replace labor. (...)It displaces it.”강정수 59
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automation technologiesenabled the creation ofnew tasks
강정수 60
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ReinstatementEffect
강정수 61
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Mixed effectson labor demand!
강정수 62
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the future of work?
강정수 63
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a race betweenautomation andnew,labor-intensive tasks강정수 64
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task content of productiondisplacement effectreinstatement effect강정수 65
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market failurescounterbalancing policies
강정수 66
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Self-driving cars
강정수 67
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Where'smy self-driving car?
강정수 68
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Is the AV TechnologyAround the Corner?
강정수 69
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강정수 70
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Sacha Arnoud, Director of Engineering (Waymo) (2018.2)
“When you’re 90% done, you still have 90% to go,”
The first “90% of the technology takes 10% of the time.”
강정수 71
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Risk 1
강정수 72
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Risk 2: safe “islands” around cities
강정수 73
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Gatik
강정수 74
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"The state of AI hypehas far exceeded
the state of AI science,
강정수 75
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the Hype Cycle of Gartner
강정수 76
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Face Recognition
강정수 77
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강정수 78
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강정수 79
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Black Lives Matter
강정수 80
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강정수 81
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강정수 82
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강정수 83
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강정수 84
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강정수 85
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강정수 86
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AI has beenfar more successful!
강정수 87
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electricityin the 20th century
강정수 88
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the cloudin the 21st century
강정수 89
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AI's potential?!
강정수 90
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the effectof slowingits adoption
강정수 91
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idiot savant
강정수 92
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The AI Technologyneedanother breakthrough!
강정수 93
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AI Winter
강정수 94
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강정수 95
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AI summer
강정수 96
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warmer& brighter
강정수 97
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AI-Traps
강정수 98
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NOT:AI winter iscoming again!
강정수 99
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BUTan autumnal breeze
강정수 100
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“When you’re 90% done,you still have 90% to go,”
강정수 101
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Risk 3:Platform-Monopoly
강정수 102
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Monopsony
강정수 103
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AI-Lockin-Loop
강정수 104
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Network Effects▶︎ better Services▶︎ Market Power▶︎ economies of scale강정수 105
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abuse of market power
강정수 106
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the best(not good enough)
강정수 107
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The regionalitylost almostall of its relevance.
강정수 108
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vertical integration
강정수 109
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Expanding horizontally
강정수 110
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acqui-hirecompetition reduced
강정수 111
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acquisitions
강정수 112
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The concentration of big tech
강정수 113
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MAFAAsMicrosoft, Apple, Facebook,
Amazon and Alphabet
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outdated definitionof monopoly
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consumer welfarelow prices
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Q: a new competition?
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2 recommendations
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1. no acquisitionWhatsApp, Instagram
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2. Exclusivity clauses
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We need a broad discussion
about economies of scale & network effects
of the digital economy.
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