海洋安全保障情報「2020 8 · 2020. 9. 12. · 1. u.s. competition with china and russia:...

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海洋安全保障情報「2020年 8月」

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－目次－

１米国関連

２中国・台湾関連

３米中関係

４インド太平洋地域関連

（1）全般

（2）南シナ海

（3）東シナ海

５北極関連・ロシア・その他

１米国関連

1. U.S. Competition with China and Russia: The Crisis-Driven Need to Change U.S. Strategy

Center for International and Strategy Studies, August 14, 2020

Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang

Full Report

2. Navy Force Structure in the Next National Defense Strategy

Center for a New American Security, August 17, 2020

Admiral John Richardson, USN (Ret.), served the 31st Chief of Naval Operations and since retiring,

has joined the CNAS Board of Directors

Full Article

2-1. The Navy Needs More Ships — and Vision, Too

Defense One.com, August 17, 2020

https://www.spf.org/oceans/https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/2020811.Burke_Chair.AHC_.GH9_.pdfhttps://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/navy-force-structure-in-the-next-national-defense-strategy

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Brent Sadler, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation's Center for National Defense

Full Article

2-2. America’s 355-ship Navy does not have to be the current fantasy

Defense News.com, August 24, 2020

Everett Pyatt, a former assistant secretary of the U.S. Navy for shipbuilding and logistics

Full Article

2-3. The US Navy is chasing the impossible

The Strategist, August 27, 2020

Brendan Thomas-Noone, a research fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of

Sydney

Full Article

3. Defining DoD’s Role in Gray Zone Competition

Center for a New American Security, August 24, 2020

Jim Mitre, the Chief Strategy Officer at Govini and Andre Gellerman, a student in the Master of Arts

at Tufts University’s Fletcher School

Full Article

4. Renewed Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for Congress

Congressional Research Service, Updated August 25, 2020

Full Report

5. Defense Secretary Addresses Free and Open Indo-Pacific at APCSS

US Department of Defense, August 26, 2020

Secretary of Defense Dr. Mark T. Esper

Transcript

２中国・台湾関連

1. Arm Taiwan—but Skip the Nukes

Foreign Policy.com, August 4, 2020

Bradley Bowman, the senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation

for Defense of Democracies and Andrea Stricker, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/navy-needs-more-ships-and-vision-too/167753/https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/08/24/americas-355-ship-navy-does-not-have-to-be-the-current-fantasy/https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-us-navy-is-chasing-the-impossible/https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/defining-dods-role-in-gray-zone-competitionhttps://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R43838.pdfhttps://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2328124/defense-secretary-addresses-free-and-open-indo-pacific-at-apcss-courtesy-transc/source/GovDelivery/

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Democracies

As the military balance of power shifts in China’s favor, Beijing may be increasingly tempted to act

against Taiwan. Continue Reading

2. China’s New Type-075 Amphibious Warship Kicks Off Sea Trials

USNI News, August 5,2020

Full Article

2-1. China’s First Type 075 Amphibious Assault Ship Begins Sea Trials

The Diplomat.com, August 11, 2020

Robert Farley, an assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International

Commerce

Full Article

2-2. China’s Type 075 amphibious assault ship completes trial, but needs aircraft

South China Morning Post.com, August 25, 2020

Full Article

3. Which Way the Dragon? Sharpening Allied Perceptions of China’s Strategic Trajectory

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, August 6, 2020

Ross Babbage, Toshi Yoshihara and others

Full Report

4. Deception Is Key to Chinese Military Strategies


Aaron Jensen, currently a Ph.D. candidate at National Chengchi University in Taipei, Taiwan

Despite the long tradition of valuing deception by Chinese military leaders, few studies on Chinese

military power touch on the issue. Continue Reading

5. Xi Jinping Is Not Stalin

Foreign Affairs.com, August 10, 2020

Michael McFaul, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution

Full Article

6. China is overturning the rules-based order from within

The Interpreter, August 12, 2020

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/04/taiwan-military-aid-nuclear-weapons/?utmhttps://news.usni.org/2020/08/05/chinas-new-type-075-amphibious-warship-kicks-off-sea-trialshttps://thediplomat.com/2020/08/chinas-first-type-075-amphibious-assault-ship-begins-sea-trials/https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3098827/chinas-type-075-amphibious-assault-ship-completes-trial-needshttps://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/CSBA8226_(Which_Way_The_Dragon_Report)_FINAL_web.pdfhttps://thediplomat.com/2020/08/deception-is-key-to-chinese-military-strategies/https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-10/xi-jinping-not-stalin

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Dr. Malcolm Jorgensen, a Research Associate and Lecturer at Leuphana University of Lüneburg

By contesting basic principles of international law, China is doing far more damage than is often

recognised. Continue Reading

7. New Chinese Air-Launched Glide Weapon Designed To Be An Airfield Killer

The War Zone.com, August 17, 2020

Full Article

8. China’s dangerous Taiwan temptation

The Washington Post.com, August 17, 2020

Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a contributing columnist for The

Washington Post

Full Article

9. Trouble on China’s Periphery: The Stability-Instability Paradox


David Skidmore, a professor in the Department of Political Science at Drake University in Des Moines,

Iowa, the U.S.

Full Article

10. Image Shows Chinese Submarine Entering Mysterious Cave Facility At South China Sea Base


Full Article

11. Multi-type Army helicopters conduct deck-landing training on civilian semi-submersible vessel

China Military Online.com, August 21, 2020

Full Article

11-1. The Chinese Navy Just Transformed This Cargo Ship Into An Instant Helicopter Carrier

Forbes.com, August 22, 2020

Full Article

11-2. Chinese Military Experiments With Using Commercial Vessels as Helicopter Bases


Steven Stashwick, an independent writer and researcher based in New York City

The use of civilian ships to support combat could expand the military’s reach but blur targeting rules

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-overturning-rules-based-order-withinhttps://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35778/new-chinese-air-launched-glide-weapon-designed-to-be-an-airfield-killerhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/chinas-dangerous-taiwan-temptation/2020/08/14/aeacae5e-de31-11ea-809e-b8be57ba616e_story.htmlhttps://thediplomat.com/2020/08/trouble-on-chinas-periphery-the-stability-instability-paradox/https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35837/image-shows-chinese-submarine-entering-mysterious-cave-facility-at-south-china-sea-basehttp://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2020-08/21/content_9887106.htmhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/08/22/surprise-the-chinese-navy-just-transformed-this-cargo-ship-into-an-istant-helicopter-carrier/#5eac00fa1d44

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in wartime. Continue Reading

11-3. Semi-Submersible Heavy Lift Vessels: A New “Maritime Relay Platform” for PLA Cross-Strait

Operations?

China Brief, The Jamestown Foundation, August 31, 2020

John Dotson, the editor of China Brief

Full Article

12. Taiwan and the United States — much thunder, little rain

East Asia Forum, August 23, 2020

Douglas H Paal, a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Since April, the administration of US President Donald Trump has been ratcheting up its rhetoric and

actions regarding China. Continue Reading

13. China’s navy drills in 4 regions show ability to counter US, observers say


China is conducting military drills almost simultaneously in four sea regions, a rare move possibly

designed to signal its readiness to handle confrontation with the United States and self-ruled Taiwan.

Continue Reading

13-1. Taiwan’s Tsai softens tone after China missile drill

Asia Times.com, August 28, 2020

Taiwanese leader urges Chinese counterpart to exercise 'restraint and responsibility' after provocative

naval drills. Continue Reading

13-2. US-China relations: Chinese military mounts another show of force in Bohai and Yellow seas


Full Article

14. Mahan, Corbett, and China’s Maritime Grand Strategy


Andrew Latham, a professor of international relations at Macalester College in Saint Paul, Minnesota

The shift from Mahan to Corbett is reflective of a major shift in Chinese grand strategy – one that has

implications for the U.S. and the Indo-Pacific at large. Continue Reading

15. China alone

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/chinese-military-experiments-with-using-commercial-vessels-as-helicopter-bases/https://jamestown.org/program/semi-submersible-heavy-lift-vessels-a-new-maritime-relay-platform-for-pla-cross-strait-operations/https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/23/taiwan-and-the-united-states-much-thunder-little-rain/https://www.scmp.com/topics/taiwan-0https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3098671/chinas-navy-drills-4-regions-show-ability-counter-us-observershttps://asiatimes.com/2020/08/taiwans-tsai-softens-tone-after-china-missile-drill/https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3099407/us-china-relations-chinese-military-mounts-another-show-forcehttps://thediplomat.com/2020/08/mahan-corbett-and-chinas-maritime-grand-strategy/

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Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi–based Centre for Policy Research

Full Article

16. Chinese military fires ‘aircraft-carrier killer’ missile into South China Sea in ‘warning to the United

States’


China launched two missiles, including an “aircraft-carrier killer”, into the South China Sea on

Wednesday morning, a source close to the Chinese military said, sending a clear warning to the United

States. Continue Reading

16-1. China launch ballistic missiles into South China Sea in ‘warning to US’ after ‘unprecedented’

war games near Taiwan

The Sun, August 26, 2020

CHINA has launched missiles — including an "aircraft-carrier killer" — into the South China Sea

during menacing war games in "a warning" to the US. Continue Reading

16-2. In Warning to America, China Tests Carrier-Killer Missiles

Popular Mechanics.com, August 26, 2020

China's message? Stay out of our sea. Continue Reading

16-3. Pentagon confirms China missile test in South China Sea

The Washington Times.com, August 26, 2020

Full Article

16-4. China's 'Carrier-Killer' Missiles: Time to Separate Hype from Reality

The National Interest, August 27, 2020

Kris Osborn, defense editor for the National Interest.

Thanks to China's recent test of two different types of anti-ship missiles, debate will surely restart

concerning the future of the aircraft carrier. Is the U.S. Navy ready to take on the challenge?

Continue Reading

16-5. Beijing claims it has warned a US destroyer in South China Sea after missile launch


China says it has warned off a US guided-missile destroyer in the South China Sea which was

deployed to the disputed waters after a Chinese missile launch in the latest of a series of escalating

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/china-alone/https://www.scmp.com/topics/south-china-seahttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3098972/chinese-military-launches-two-missiles-south-china-sea-warninghttps://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12506964/china-launch-ballistic-missiles-into-south-china-sea-in-warning-to-us-after-unprecedented-war-games-near-taiwan/https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a33809002/china-carrier-killer-missile-test-america-warning/https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/aug/26/china-test-fires-carrier-killer-missile-us-announc/https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-carrier-killer-missiles-time-separate-hype-reality-167904https://www.scmp.com/topics/south-china-sea

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tensions in the region. Continue Reading

17. China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for

Congress


Full Report

18. China Wins Seat at International Tribunal for Law on the Sea

Benar News, August 25, 2020

Full Article

18-1. Chinese diplomat elected to maritime disputes tribunal amid South China Sea tension and US

objection


Full Article

19. China Strengthens Navy Base In South China Sea For Aircraft Carriers


H I Sutton, contributor for Forbes

The new suspected dry dock, of a type known as a Graving Dock, is large enough for China's

aircraft carriers. New intelligence suggests that China will soon have its aircraft carriers permanently

based in the South China Sea. Continue Reading

20. China and Russia In Mysterious New Submarine Project



Unlike the U.S. Navy, both Russia and China continue to operate non-nuclear attack submarines in

addition to nuclear ones. Continue Reading

21. China’s war games raise fears for Taiwan’s security

The Economist.com, August 30, 2020

The island cannot rely on American help, but armed conflict remains unlikely. Continue Reading

21-1. Could China Successfully Blockade Taiwan?


James Holmes, J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3099198/china-says-it-has-expelled-us-destroyer-south-china-seahttps://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdfhttps://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/judge-appointed-08252020182723.html#:~:text=Duan%20Jielong%2C%20the%20Chinese%20ambassador,of%20the%20Sea%20(ITLOS)https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3098818/chinese-diplomat-elected-maritime-disputes-tribunal-amid-southhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/08/26/china-strengthens-key-navy-base-in-south-china-sea-for-aircraft-carriers/#4b425865561bhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/08/27/china-and-russia-in-mysterious-new-submarine-project/#4f74b8e16299https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/08/30/chinas-war-games-raise-fears-for-taiwans-security

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History suggests how Taiwan’s defenders can overcome not just a blockade but an amphibious

onslaught. Continue Reading

21-2. China not ready for full assault: report

Taipei Times.com, September 1, 2020

GEOLOGICAL CHALLENGE: The PLA lacks the landing vehicles and logistics required to launch

an incursion into Taiwan via the Taiwan Strait, a defense ministry report said.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) does not yet have the military capability to wage an all-

out war against Taiwan, given the demanding geological environment of the Taiwan Strait, a Ministry

of National Defense report said. The China Military Power Report 2020, which the ministry yesterday

(August 31) submitted to the Legislative Yuan for review, said the PLA still lacks the landing vehicles

and logistics required to launch an incursion into Taiwan via the Taiwan Strait. Continue Reading

22. First Image of China’s New Carrier-Based AEW Plane



Full Article

23. China-US tensions: Taiwan’s new F-16 service centre is ‘a sign of more open security ties’


Full Article

24. Beijing’s Ambitions to Build Cross-Strait Transportation Infrastructure

China Brief, The Jamestown Foundation, August 31, 2020

Kristian McGuire, an independent, Washington D.C.-based research analyst and associate editor

of Taiwan Security Research

Full article

25. Deciphering China’s ‘World-class’ Naval Ambitions

Proceedings, August 2020

Ryan D. Martinson, an assistant professor at the Naval War College

The Chinese Navy already routinely operates out of area, so its global aspirations should come as no

surprise. Continue Reading

３米中関係

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-china-successfully-blockade-taiwan-168035https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/09/01/2003742623https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/08/29/first-image-of-chinas-new-carrier-based-aew-plane/#2c64d5ab7723https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3099432/china-us-tensions-taiwans-new-f-16-service-centre-sign-morehttps://jamestown.org/program/beijings-ambitions-to-build-cross-strait-transportation-infrastructure/https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/deciphering-chinas-world-class-naval-ambitions

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1. U.S. Ups the Ante in Sino-American Conflict Over the South China Sea

China US Focus.com, August 3, 2020

Sajjad Ashraf, Former Adjunct Professor, National University of Singapore

Full Article

2. Could Donald Trump start war with China over Scarborough Shoal to win re-election?


Full Article

3. A Guide to the Trump Administration's China Policy Statements

Hudson Institute, August 5, 2020

Michael Pillsbury, Senior Fellow & Director for Chinese Strategy at Hudson Institute

Full Report

4. America’s Unholy Crusade Against China

Project Syndicate, August 5, 2020

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and

Management at Columbia University

Full Article

5. Full text of Chinese FM Wang Yi's exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency on current China-

U.S. relations

Xinhua Net.com, August 6, 2020

Full Text

6. Can America Successfully Repel a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan?


Daniel L. Davis, a senior fellow for Defense Priorities and a former lieutenant colonel in the U.S.

Army

Few leaders in “establishment Washington” have taken the time to conduct a comprehensive analysis

of the capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

Continue Reading

6-1. 美国智库眼中的中国区域拒止/反介入作战体系图片来源：环球网

https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/us-ups-the-ante-in-sino-american-conflict-over-the-south-china-seahttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3096017/could-donald-trump-start-war-china-over-scarborough-shoal-winhttps://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/A%20Guide%20to%20the%20Trump%20Administration's%20China%20Policy%20Statements.pdfhttps://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-evangelical-crusade-against-china-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2020-08http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-08/06/c_139267908.htmhttps://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/can-america-successfully-repel-chinese-invasion-taiwan-166350https://www.guancha.cn/DanielDavis/2020_08_17_561767.shtml

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6-2. 中国が台湾を武力攻撃した時にアメリカは中国に勝てるか？

中国問題グローバル研究所、８月２７日

遠藤誉、中国問題グローバル研究所所長

Full Article

7. The US military has options against China

The Hill.com, August 6, 2020

James R. Holmes, J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College

Full Article

8. Hypothetical views on a US-China conflict


Jeff Pao, China Editor at Asia Times Online

Researchers agreed US navy and air force were strong while China’s missile capability had an

advantage in the region. Continue Reading

9. How Good Order At Sea Is Central To Winning Strategic Competition

Center for International Maritime Security, August 12, 2020

Dr. Joshua Tallis, a research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses and an adjunct professor at the

George Washington University

Full Article

10. To the Brink with China

Project Syndicate, August 13, 2020

Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations

The chances of a Sino-American cold war are far higher today than they were just months ago. Even

worse, the chances of an actual war, resulting from an incident involving the countries’ militaries, are

also greater. Continue Reading

11. The United States Can’t Handle China Alone


Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute

A coordinated strategy is emerging among allies, despite Trump’s best efforts. Continue Reading

12. Avoiding a new Cold War between the US and China

Brookings, August 17, 2020

https://grici.or.jp/1620https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/510466-the-us-military-has-options-against-chinahttps://asiatimes.com/2020/08/hypothetical-views-on-a-us-china-conflict/http://cimsec.org/how-good-order-at-sea-is-central-to-winning-strategic-competition/45247https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/cold-war-or-managed-competition-with-china-by-richard-haass-1-2020-08https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/13/united-states-china-allies-coordinate/?utm

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Jeffrey Bader, a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution

Full Article

13. US, China sea tensions hot and getting hotter


Richard J. Heydarian, a Research Fellow at National Chengchi University (Taiwan)

US ramps up shows of naval force in China-claimed waters in what increasingly looks like the prelude

to an armed conflict. Continue Reading

14. Three Steps to Win — or Avert — a Pacific War With China

The Hill.com, August 26, 2020

Seth Cropsey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute

Full Article

15. U.S. Penalizes 24 Chinese Companies Over Role in South China Sea

The New York Times.com, august 26, 2020

Full Article

16. Why the U.S. Navy Keeps Sailing Through the Taiwan Strait (10 Times This Year)


Caleb Larson, a defense writer with the National Interest

The Navy just announced the 10th transit of the Taiwan Strait by a U.S. warship this year, the most

since 2016. Continue Reading

17. DoD War Games Predict ‘Extremely Destabilizing’ Chinese Military Parity

Breaking Defense.com, August 27, 2020

Full Article

18. U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Background and Issues for

Congress


Full Report

19. Southeast Asia is Ground Zero in the New U.S.-China Conflict—and Beijing Is Winning


Elizabeth Becker, a former international economic correspondent at The New York Times

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/17/avoiding-a-new-cold-war-between-the-us-and-china/https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/us-china-sea-tensions-hot-and-getting-hotter/https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/513687-three-steps-to-win-or-avert-a-pacific-war-with-chinahttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/business/economy/trump-sanctions-south-china-sea.htmlhttps://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-us-navy-keeps-sailing-through-taiwan-strait-10-times-year-167760https://breakingdefense.com/2020/08/dod-war-games-predict-extremely-destabilizing-chinese-military-parity/https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R42784.pdf

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Full Article

20. The War that Never Was?

Proceeding, August 2020

Admiral James A. Winnefeld, U.S. Navy (Retired), Distinguished Professor at the Sam Nunn School

of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology and Michael Morell, former Acting

Director and Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency

The beginning of major state-on-state conflict is almost always a surprise . . . at least to one of the two

sides. Continue Reading

４インド太平洋地域関連

（1）全般

1. Addressing Maritime Security In Southeast Asia

Stable Sea, August 4, 2020

Michael van Ginkel, Research Assistant at OEF’s Stable Seas program

Full Report

2. India and the United States Need Each Other Mostly Because of China


Sumit Ganguly, a distinguished professor at Indiana University, Bloomington

Full Article

3. A Chinese-built airport next door to a key Australia-US naval base?


Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer

Manus Island is a vital strategic location. Why is a Chinese company being paid to upgrade its airfield?

Continue Reading

4. India Doesn’t Want to Be a Pawn in a U.S.-China Great Game


Atman Trivedi, a Managing Director at Hills & Company and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the

Atlantic Council

Full Article

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/29/southeast-asia-china-book/?utmhttps://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/war-never-washttps://stableseas.org/file/470/download?token=CbihUvLGhttps://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/03/india-united-states-balancing-china-threat/?utmhttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/chinese-built-airport-next-door-australia-us-funded-navy-porthttps://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/07/india-doesnt-want-to-be-a-pawn-in-a-u-s-china-great-game/

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5. The return of sovereignty to Australia’s defence strategy


Richard Brabin-Smith AO, Honorary Professor at the Australian National University

Full Article

6. B-2 bombers fly to Diego Garcia in Indian Ocean

UPI.com, August 12, 2020

Full Article

6-1. Diego Garcia: The US has a clear choice


Ambassador Jagdish Koonjul has served as Mauritius’ representative in New York, Brussels, Paris,

Washington, New Delhi and as Secretary for Foreign Affairs

Full Article

6-2. Trio Of B-2 Stealth Bombers Deployed To The Island Of Diego Garcia As Seen From Space


Full Article

6-3. Will US bombers on Diego Garcia deter Chinese aggression?


Andrew Banfield, a senior lecturer at the Australian National University

Full Article

7. BRI and Indo-Pacific: Geopolitics of Multilateralism?

RSIS Commentary, August 13, 2020

Nazia Hussain, Senior Analyst and Research Analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International

Studies (RSIS) and Amalina Anuar, Senior Analyst and Research Analyst at RSIS

The Belt and Road Initiative, and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific, have new dimensions and new

players. But how are these concepts unfolding, and will they move past existing pitfalls?

Continue Reading

8. Democracy’s Squad: INDIA’S Change of Heart and The Future of The Quad

War on The Rocks.com, August 13, 2020

Jeff M. Smith, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington

https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/11/the-return-of-sovereignty-to-australias-defence-strategy/https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2020/08/12/B-2-bombers-fly-to-Diego-Garcia-in-Indian-Ocean/6961597251622/?utmhttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/clear-choice-us-diego-garciahttps://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35834/trio-of-b-2-stealth-bombers-deployed-to-the-island-of-diego-garcia-as-seen-from-spacehttps://www.aspistrategist.org.au/will-us-bombers-on-diego-garcia-deter-chinese-aggression/https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CO20157.pdf

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Full Article

9. Can 'The Quad' Work Together to Contain Chinese Aggression?

The Dispatch.com, August 21, 2020

Joseph Hammond, a former Fulbright fellow and journalist

Full Article

10. Guam needs Aegis Ashore

Defense News.com, August 26, 2020

Bradley Bowman, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Maj. Shane

Praiswater, a visiting military analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Full Article

11. US Defense Secretary Esper Visits Tiny Palau, Highlighting US-China Competition


Robert Burns, AP national security writer

The island nation is an example of the battleground on which the United States and China are pursuing

a “great power” competition for global influence. Continue Reading

12. A China management strategy with ASEAN at its centre


Frederick Kliem, a fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological

University

Full Article

（2）南シナ海

1. South China Sea Military Capabilities Series

Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory, July 2020

In the information age, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) believe that success in combat

will be realized by winning a struggle for information superiority in the operational batttlespace.

China’s informationized warfare strategy and information-centric operational concepts are central to

how the PLA will generate combat power. These South China Sea (SCS) military capability

(MILCAP) studies provide a survey of military technologies and systems on Chinese-claimed island-

reefs in the disputed Spratly Islands. Continue Reading

1-1. Introduction to South China Sea Military Capability Studies

https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/democracys-squad-indias-change-of-heart-and-the-future-of-the-quad/https://thedispatch.com/p/can-the-quad-work-together-to-containhttps://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/08/25/guam-needs-aegis-ashore/https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/us-defense-secretary-esper-visits-tiny-palau-highlighting-us-china-competition/https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/27/a-china-management-strategy-with-asean-at-the-centre/https://www.jhuapl.edu/NewsPublications/Publicationshttps://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/IntroductiontoSCSMILCAPStudies.pdf

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1-2. Air and Surface Radar

1-3. Electronic Warfare and Signals Intelligence

1-4. High-Frequency Communications

1-5. In Depth: Subi Reef Counter-Stealth Radar

1-6. Inter-Island Communications

1-7. Undersea Fiber-Optic Cable and Satellite Communications

2. Brunei, ASEAN and the South China Sea


Joshua Bernard B. Espeña, a defence analyst in the Office for Strategic Studies and Strategy

Management of the Armed Forces of the Philippines and Chelsea Anne A. Uy Bomping, a defence

analyst in the Office of Naval Strategic Studies of the Philippine Navy

Full Article

3. Citing Duterte order, Lorenzana says PH won’t join other navies in South China Sea drills

INQUIRER.net, August 3, 2020

Full Article

3-1. Duterte bans exercises with US in South China Sea



Full Article

4. US Close-in Reconnaissance over the South China Sea Increased Sharply in July

The South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), August 4, 2020

Since 2009, there has been a sharp increase in the US military activities in the South China Sea in

terms of the frequency, intensity, and pertinence. Continue Reading

5. The True Significance of Pompeo’s South China Sea Statement

Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS, August 4, 2020

https://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/AirandSurfaceRadar.pdfhttps://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/EWandSIGINT.pdfhttps://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/High-FrequencyCommunications.pdfhttps://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/InDepthSubiReefCounterStealthRadar.pdfhttps://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/Inter-IslandCommunications.pdfhttps://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/UnderseaFiber-OpticCableandSATCOM.pdfhttps://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/brunei-asean-and-south-china-seahttps://globalnation.inquirer.net/189992/citing-duterte-order-lorenzana-says-ph-wont-join-other-navies-in-south-china-sea-drillshttps://asiatimes.com/2020/08/duterte-bans-exercises-with-us-in-south-china-sea/http://www.scspi.org/en/dtfx/us-close-reconnaissance-over-south-china-sea-increased-sharply-july

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6. Strengthening the Philippines’ approach to maritime security


Ellaine Joy C Sanidad, Chief of the Maritime Security and Safety Division at the National Coast Watch

Council Secretariat of the Philippine National Coast Watch System

Full Article

7. South China Sea: The Battle of the Diplomatic Notes Continues

The Diplomat.com, 4, 2020

Nguyen Hong Thao, professor of the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam

The latest round of diplomatic note exchanges resurrected the 2016 arbitral tribunal award.

Continue Reading

8. South China Sea outpost amid reports of major PLA landing drill


Full Article

9. What Does Vietnam Think About America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy?


Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation

The South China Sea is where the rubber meets the road for U.S.-Vietnam security ties, and in this

regard, Hanoi has gone as far as it is comfortable. Continue Reading

10. Vietnam rejects Chinese aggression in the South China Sea


Nguyen Khac Giang, a senior research fellow at the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy

Research, Vietnam National University

Full Article

11. Japan and Vietnam ink first maritime patrol ship deal as South China Sea row heats up

The Japan Times, August 11, 2020

Full Article

12. South China Sea: Chinese military told not to fire first shot in stand-off with US forces

https://amti.csis.org/the-true-significance-of-pompeos-south-china-sea-statement/https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/04/strengthening-the-philippines-approach-to-maritime-security/https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/south-china-sea-the-battle-of-the-diplomatic-notes-continues/https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3096004/taiwan-sends-marines-reinforce-south-china-sea-outpost-amidhttps://thediplomat.com/2020/08/what-does-vietnam-think-about-americas-indo-pacific-strategy/https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/08/vietnam-rejects-chinese-aggression-in-the-south-china-sea/https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/11/national/japan-vietnam-patrol-ships-south-china-sea/

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Full Article

12-1. Chinese Military Told to Prevent Escalation in Interactions With US


Steven Stashwick, an independent writer and researcher based in New York City

Chinese planes and ships are reportedly told “not to fire the first shot.” Continue Reading

13. South China Sea: the dispute that could start a military conflict


Full Article

14. Demystifying Australia’s South China Sea stance


Sam Bateman, a Professorial Research Fellow at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources

and Security (ANCORS), The University of Wollongong

Full Article

15. US spy planes in South China Sea ‘creating risk’ for civilian aircraft


The US Air Force is creating risks for passenger flights over the South China Sea with its close-in

reconnaissance missions near the Chinese coast, a Chinese military source and observers have warned.

Continue Reading

16. China’s PAFMM grey zone maritime challenge to the Philippines


Christian Vicedo, an independent security analyst based in Manila

Full Article

17. Why Doesn’t China Deploy Fighter Jets to the Spratly Islands?


Ian Storey, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Is Beijing merely trying to avoid provocation, or is there a more serious problem with its artificial

island bases in the South China Sea? Continue Reading

18. The End of American ‘Neutrality’ in the South China Sea

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3096978/south-china-sea-chinese-military-told-not-fire-first-shothttps://thediplomat.com/2020/08/chinese-military-told-to-prevent-escalation-in-interactions-with-us/https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3096897/south-china-sea-dispute-could-start-military-conflicthttps://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/12/demystifying-australias-south-china-sea-stance/?utmhttps://www.scmp.com/topics/south-china-seahttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3096857/us-spy-planes-south-china-sea-creating-risk-civilian-aircrafthttps://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/08/13/chinas-pafmm-grey-zone-maritime-challenge-to-the-philippines/https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/why-doesnt-china-deploy-fighter-jets-to-the-spratly-islands/

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China US Focus.com, August 16, 2020


Full Article

19. Should Vietnam Take China To Arbitration Over the South China Sea?

Lawfare Blog.com, August 17, 2020

Dr. Mark J. Valencia, an Adjunct Senior Scholar at China’s National Institute for South China Sea

Studies

Some analysts are predicting that Vietnam will soon file a complaint against China under the U.N.

Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) dispute settlement mechanism regarding China’s actions in

the South China Sea. Continue Reading

20. Water Wars: Lines in the Great Wall of Sand

Lawfare Blig.com, August 17, 2020

Sean Quirk, a JD/MPP joint-degree student at Harvard Law School and Harvard Kennedy School

On July 13, the United States hardened its position against the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on

the South China Sea. Continue Reading

21. KMT to push for Pratas Islands visit

Taipei Times.com, August 21, 2020

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus yesterday said that it would continue to push for its plan

to inspect the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島) after the Ministry of National Defense

canceled a planned visit citing insufficient review time. Continue Reading

22. China’s Maritime Law Enforcement Activities in the South China Sea

International Law Studies, U.S. Naval War College, August, 2020

Diane A. Desierto, Associate Professor of Human Rights Law and Global Affairs at the University of

Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs

Full Report

（3）東シナ海

1. Japan’s Legal Response in the Gray Zone


James Kraska, chair and Charles H. Stockton Professor for International Law in the Stockton Center

for International Law at the U.S. Naval War College

https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/the-end-of-american-neutrality-in-the-south-china-seahttps://asiatimes.com/2020/05/vietnam-may-soon-sue-china-on-south-china-sea/https://www.lawfareblog.com/should-vietnam-take-china-arbitration-over-south-china-seahttps://www.lawfareblog.com/water-wars-lines-great-wall-sandhttps://taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2020/08/21/2003742052https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2924&context=ils

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China’s gray zone tactics around the Senkaku Islands are even more dangerous than similar moves in

the South China Sea. How is Japan responding? Continue Reading

2. Slaughter in the East China Sea


What happens if China fights the United States and Japan? A mutual disaster, wargame predicts.

Continue Reading

3. How Japan Talks About Security Threats


Eitan Oren, a teaching fellow at the Department of War Studies, King’s College London and Matthew

Brummer, an assistant professor at the University of Tokyo

The particulars of the language used to describe rivals are important to understanding Japan’s threat

assessments and policy goals. Continue Reading

4. Three questions Japan must answer as it seeks missile strike options

Nikkei Asian Review.com, August 17, 2020

Jeffrey W. Hornung, a political scientist at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation

Full Article

5. The Abe Era Ends, Cheering China, Concerning Washington


Michael Auslin is the Payson J. Treat distinguished research fellow in contemporary Asia at Stanford

University’s Hoover Institution

Full Article

５北極関連・ロシア・その他

1. Russia’s Giant Battle Cruiser Will Return


H I Sutton, contributor for Forbs

The Russia Navy’s most powerful warship, the battle cruiser Admiral Nakhimov, may be about to be

relaunched. Continue Reading

2. Image Shows Russia Extending Runway At Arctic Base, Could Support Fighter Jets, Bombers

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/japans-legal-response-in-the-gray-zone/https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/07/slaughter-in-the-east-china-sea/https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/how-japan-talks-about-security-threats/https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Three-questions-Japan-must-answer-as-it-seeks-missile-strike-optionshttps://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/28/abe-japan-resignation-united-states-ally/?utmhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/08/15/russias-giant-battle-cruiser-will-return/#14d99db466ea

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Full Article
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35899/russia-is-extending-the-runway-at-its-arctic-base-could-support-tactical-jets-bombers

海洋安全保障情報「2020 8 · 2020. 9. 12. · 1. u.s. competition with china and russia:...

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