2012 12 27()

2012. 12. 27

. 1

1. 1

2. 2

. 3

1. 3

2. 5

3. 6

4. 7

. 8

1. 8

2. 11

3. 13

4. 14 5. 15

6. : 2050 17

. 18

1. ' ' 21

(1) 22

(2) 23

(3) 24

(4) 26

2. ' ' 27

(1) 28

(2) 29

(3) 30

(4) 31

3. ' ' 32

(1) 33 (2) 35

[] 36

- 1 -

.

1.

,

, ,

,

,

30

5

,

(01 50 )

* ()

( ) 5

( ) WB China 2030

- 2 -

2.

() ,

(meta policy directive)

()

() 30

()

* 14 , 30

( )

- (inclusive growth)

-

* ) 5

()

3

(12.1.31)

(12.4.30)

, ,

- 3 -

.

1.

18 3

- ~1 (0.52.5%), 2 ~70(1.75.0%) (Angus Maddison)

- 00 (00~07) 4.2%

50 3%(OECD) *

* : (70) 4.1%, (80) 3.2%, (90) 3.1%

- OECD 2%(1.75%~2.25%), 3%(3.3%~3.9%)

GDP '40 40% ,(Global Insight)

18 (back to the future")

- , (first among equals) ( NIC)

Next Eleven*" 30 EU 27 ( NIC)

* , , , , , ,

, ,

50 1.5% (OECD)

* IT ()

* , , ,

- 4 -

() IT

IT , ,

() IT IT *

* (), (), U-city(), ()

OECD IT

IT

, IT

* ( e-)

( ) /

() IT

( (CISCO )),

3 ( )

( ) IT

*

* (Open Innovation) R&D

IT IT

* , , IT

*

()

* ,

- 5 -

2.

*

* 50 OECD 9%p ) 66.659.5, 65.958.3, 66.054.7, 63.351.1(%,1160)

*

* 2060 , , 2 , 4 (OECD)) 36.968.6 22.155.0, 30.956.7, 11.551.8(%,1160)

70(11) 2050 93 (UN)

40 ,

* 82.2%(11) 85.8%(50)

(1950~2050)

1950 2010 2050* : UN, World Population Prospects the 2010 Revision('11)

,

50 2

(, )

50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-00 00-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 14 714 1220 1308 2572 3401 2454 2249 2071 1928 14 714 12201308257234012454224920711928

* : UN, World Population Prospects the 2010 Revision('11)

- 6 -

3.

* * 10(2011~2020) (0.9) 100

(1911~2010) (0.75)

IPCCOECD

*

* : 23

GDP 03%, 56 GDP 510%

*,

* 15 12.5

*, ** ***

* ($/, 10 , EIA) : ('10)79 ('15)117 ('25)133 ('35)145

** 10 35 : ( ) 1.3, () 1.7

*** 03 3 Blackout 60 (DOE)

, *,

**

* 3~7 Grid Parity (EPIA, )

** 1,500 60

* **

,

* 09 693 20% , ** 09 1,620 20 0.81

- 7 -

4.

* ,

**

* 1 GDP(PPP, USD)

: () 39,333, () 6,620

** ( 0.61, 0.55 ) ( 0.408,

0.283)

Occupy Wall Street,

,

* 50 ('12, OECD) : OECD 2%

(1.752.25%), 3%(3.33.9%)

BRICs *

**

* 2020 3 12 2

** 2050 30

40% ('12, HSBC)

,

,

*

, , IT

- 8 -

.

1.

1120

3.8% 2130 2.9%, 3140 1.9% (KDI)

, 20 ,

*

*

(OECD, '12)

- catch-up , 1 GDP

( $16,740) (NBER, 11)

* 90 IT ,

2%

,

-

,

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

55,000,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

( : %) KDI LG OECD

2011-2020 3.8 3.6 3.4 2.7(11~30)2021-2030 2.9 2.8 2.8

2031-2040 1.9 2.2 2.5 1.0('30~'60)

* : (11.12)

, , SOC ,

( 0.86~1.34%p )

- 9 -

()

1 GDP ( $16,740) (NBER, '11.3)

- , (1970) 1990 20

< >

1 GDP

()(7) (7) 1997 5.8% 2.5% 3.2% $17,844 1974 4.4% 1.6% 2.8% $17,473 1970 9.5% 2.9% 6.6% $13,856 1988 3.7% 1.2% 2.4% $21,261 1968 3.9% 1.4% 2.5% $19,496

(41) - 5.6% 2.1% 3.5% $16,740* : When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down" NBER, 2011.3

, Catch-up ,

,

(UBS, Goldman Sachs),

* 06

* (Nomura)

* 2012 : ) 5000, ) 12,700

- , (LG)

*

* 1 2 : ) 33.43%, )72.45%

- 10 -

() New Economy (KDI)

1.

30

1990

1990 , (New Economy)

2.

1990

* 1990-2000 : (3.2), (1.3), (1.6)

1990

* 1996-2000 : (4.2), (0.7), (2.6)

2000 2% 08

* 2001-2007 : (2.5), (0.6), (1.3)

, 90 , New Economy

1990 , ,

* 2000 1990

,

- 11 -

2.

(11 1.24) OECD

17 , 26

* ( 7%) ( 20%) :

() 154, () 90, () 35, () 26

17 21

, 30 280

(30 3,289 8.51%)

* (, 11, ): (12)3,656 (30)3,289 (60)2,187

* (, 11, ): (12)5,000 (30)5,216 (60)4,396

60 10 4 ,

100 80 1 1

* : (12) 11.8% (40) 32.3% (60) 40.1%

,

4.4%p (52.7%57.1%),

7.2%p (37.4%30.2%)

,

* 65 (%): 45.1%, 22.4%, OECD 13.5%(11)

,

,

*

GDP

50 209%

- 12 -

()

, *

* , (10) (08.6~12.7, %) (6.043.14), (4.621.29) (3.971.52)

(10) (%) (/)

* : * :

(-) 15 , 91.8% (12.1)

, BBB+

,

,

SOC *

* ,

- 13 -

3.

*

, **

* (07) / (11) : (11~20) 0.8 / 1.1 (41~50) 2.0 / 3.2

** ( , KEI, '11)() : (20) 29 (50) 122 (100) 2,800

- 20

,

- EU 12

, *

* ( ), ( )

,

* 1030 () (%) : () 1.3(1.5), (OECD) 0.1(0.9)

* 07 10% 13 ,

-

,

,

- ,

- 14 -

4.

*

* GDP 27% ()

, *

* 50% (%) : (11) 15.2%, OECD 11.1%

, ,

* (10 ): 13.6(00) 24.7(05) 31.2(10)

** : 363(05) 656(09)

,

,

*

* 10 10.2%( , 12.9)

OECD (22.0%) 46%

, ,

,

* 12

: (IMD) 22, 33, (WEF) 19, 81

,

,

- 15 -

5.

, ,

() *,

( )

* 50 (67.970.2%,

15~69 ) (22.117.2%, 70 )

()

() *, **

* , ,

** ( + )

()

( )

* EU

, ,

20 , 10 GDP 1%~7%

( )

* 20%~76%

,

- 16 -

() ( ) 89 1.75% 93

0.77% 07 1.30%

* : () (91) 80 (07) 82 () : (91) 1.45 (07) 1.33

3 1(92

14 6.9%)

()

- ,

* (GDP 20) (GDP 3.3)

()

(2000 )

90 (,

9198 9200 ), 2000

,

90

() * ,

-

* : 10.9, 4, 22.4

()

* /GDP : (89) 19% (10) 44% 2.3

* /GDP : (89) 2.2% (10) 4.3% 1.9

* * : (90) 21.8% (10) 22.0% 0.2%p

()

-

( GDP 30% )

- 17 -

6. : 2050

- 18 -

.

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,

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- 19 -

() 2050

1.

,

R&D

, SOC

2.

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- 20 -

2050

20 IT 40

. 80

.

.

,

.

,

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- 21 -

1 ' '

IT

,

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-

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R&D

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IT

FDI

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- 22 -

1.

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* 12 () (6.2) : 95.6%, 4.4%

()

, -

, -

*

- ,

- 1 ,

,

*

- 23 -

2.

R&D R&D

()

() , R&D, * ( )

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* R&D , R&D( R&D) 30~40%

- R&D * **

* R&D (12.5 )

** () () , ,

- *

* (: 3 ) ,

* ( ), R&D , (Big Science)

R&D R&D R&D OECD *

R&D (Needs) **

* (10) 15.4%, OECD 21.5%** Living Lab

- 24 -

3.

,

(Top-Down) (Bottom-Up)

M&A ,

*

* ) R&D R&D , R&D

- KOTRA Investment Korea PEF ,

(Mega-City Region) , R&D *

* ) ( : KOTRA Global Alliance Platforms) , ,

, ,

- , , U

* () , , Hyundai Boulevard

* () 10 (Selective Finance for Investment)

* () R&D Research Tax Credit ( R&D 140%, 2 35%, 3 30%, 1 5% )

- 25 -

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- , 2 *

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* ) China Valley , ,

BRICs, Next11* FTA , ,

EDCF

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*

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- 26 -

4.

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* IMD : 33/59, WEF : 81/142(12 )

- 28 -

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R&D

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,(EITC),

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* 49%(279), 40%(165) , 59%(330) (, 10)

*

* 10 50% (12.7 )

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- 31 -

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40

* 40 (, 12.6, ): ()52.6, ()50, ()42.7, ()39.6

- 1)

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1) ' ' 50 (50~55 ) , (12.10) 2013 7 50 '()' .

- 33 -

1. 30~40

100

65

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(12 OECD )

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50%( )

,

,

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- 34 -

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,

Pro Bono( )

PC

(Smartwork)

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- 35 -

2.

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(15)

(GCF) , MICE

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(Burning Tax)

( )

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- 36 -

< >

- 37 -

1

(1) 40

(2) 41

(3) - 42

(4) R&D 43

(5) 44

(6) 45

(7) 46

2

(8) 48

(9) 49

(10) 50

(11) 51

(12) 52

(13) 53

(14) (EITC) 54

(15) 55

(16) 56

(17) 57

(18) 58

(19) 59

- 38 -

3

(20) 61

(21) 62

(22) 63

(23) 64

(24) 65

(25) 66

(26) 67

(27) 68

(28) (Burning Tax) 70

- 39 -

1.

- 40 -

1 (22p)

1.

95 *

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*

95

** IMD (11, 59) : 39

4 ( 200)

* 14%

2.

() *

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3.

- 41 -

2 (22p)

1.

97 7

2.

*

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3.

- 42 -

3 - (22p)

1.

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* () : 25.0( 26.3)(06, ),

22.0, 23.2, OECD 22.9(00, OECD)

2.

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,

() (, )

(, )

(OECDEU, )

3.

- 43 -

4 R&D (23p)

1.

R&D

, , , ,

R&D* **

* () ,

** R&D (10, %)

: 15.4, 24.6, 23.8, 17.8, OECD 21.5

R&D

2.

R&D R&D OECD

( :15.4% 21.5%)

R&D (Needs)

Living Lab*

*

. EU '12 300 Living Lab

- 44 -

5 (24p)

1.

*

* () : () 10 2.36 15 3.82() 10 1.53 15 1.99, (SW) 10 1.16 15 1.31

2.

* 20 10

* :, SW, MICE , ,

*

* ()() : (11) 4,074 (12) 5,000 (13) 7,500()() : (11) 512 (12) 1,000 (13) 1,100

* ODA 15 10( 2.9) 2 * (GKS) 12 422(524) 15 1,000(1,000) * SW

* KOTRA : * (, , )

* MICE , , 1.5 K-POP (13~)

3.

- 45 -

6 (25p)

1.

,

*

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, ,

2.

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(100 )

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- 46 -

7 (25p)

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2.

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(ex. )

*

*

3.

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- 47 -

2.

- 48 -

8 (22p)

1.

* (2012, )

: (700 ) 85.3%, (100 ) 35.3%

** (SES) 9 (2011, )

: ( 10%) 13.8%, ( 10%) 0.8%

,

2.

* 12 ,

16 12 4 377 4.3%

** : () " 10% rule"

10% ()

3.

- 49 -

9 (28p)

1.

,

* () : (06) 83.7% (10) 85.3%

( ) *

* (12) : (1.4), ( ) 700

2.

( ) ()

,*

* CAP 11 79

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(fund offunds) *,

* 3 :'11 2,500( 1.4 18% )

3.

- 50 -

10 (28p)

1.

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7

2.

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3

Clayton 4

3

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3.

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- 51 -

11 (28p)

1.

(11 114.7, ) ,

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( ) (, )

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* (370) 25% (30%) ,

3.

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- 52 -

12 (29p)

1.

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(12.8) (%)(%)(%) 80.2 81.8 56.2 6 10 39.6 36.4 23.2 2 4

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- 53 -

13 (29p)

1.

40 5

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3.

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- 54 -

14 (EITC) (30p)

1.

(EITC)*

*

70~200

** 0911 :

(09) 59.7, 4,573 (10) 56.6, 4,369 (11) 52.2, 4,020

2.

( 1 )

(6 )*

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2

3.

- 55 -

15 (30p)

1.

* 49%(279), 40%(165) , 59%(330) (, 10)

2.

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(22%)**

(-)

1,000 200 6% 12 44 +32

3 200 38% 76 44 -32

88 88

* 400**

22%

3.

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- 56 -

16 (30p)

1.

() (

)

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( Job-Center plus )

- 24 Community link office

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2.

()

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3.

,

One-Stop

- 57 -

17 (31P)

1.

,

,

( Teach For America,

12 5,800 )

12

2.

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,

3.

- 58 -

18 (31p)

1.

,

,

*

* GDP 0.5% (1.67%),

(0.73%), (0.72%) (CAF, '06)

(fair share), (service credit)

,

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2.

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(), ()

3.

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- 59 -

19 (31p)

1.

,

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* (TV 2, 2 ) 68

1 4

,

2.

,

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(3)

3.

,

- 60 -

3.

- 61 -

20 (33p)

1.

65

, 19

*

* 1889

65 49

65 70

* 68.3%, 65 83.7% 70 (11.6 )

2.

65

,

3.

30~40

- 62 -

21 (33p)

1.

57 (OECD 60~65)

* 60

57, 53

OECD

, (12 )

2.

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3.

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- 63 -

22 (33p)

1.

* (, 09): 37, 3 20

1~5

* (CIA, World Factbook, 2011): 222 - (0.92), 221

- (1.07), 220 - (1.11), 219 - (1.15), 218 - (1.21)

2.

* 40%

3.

- 64 -

23 (33p)

1.

90%

12

,

,

2.

( ) BTL,

50% (12 13.2% )

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** (08, ) : 80%, 75%, 54%

( )

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3.

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- 65 -

24 (34p)

1.

( 9 )

70%

* (, )

(09) 363, 3.4 (10) 373, 3.7 (11) 382, 3.8

2.

13

*

( 42)

()

3.

- 66 -

25 (smart work) (34p)

1.

400

2.

PC

(Smartwork)

* ,

,

* IT

00 , 11

3.

IT

- 67 -

26 (34p)

1.

* 5.7%(32.4, 12)

OECD 12.1%(10)

* 65

, (08.7 )

,

2.

OECD

,

< >

1 95 , ,

2 7595 , ,

3 5375

3.

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- 68 -

27 (35p)

1.

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2) 3)

1) 0930 () (%) : () 1.6(1.9), (OECD) 0.4(1.2)

2) ,

3) 07 10% 13 ,

1)

2) 3)

1) -

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2) 09 1,620 20 0.81

(IEA) : (09) 3% (35) 15%

3) ()

() LNG

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21

3

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( (CISCO ))

- 69 -

2.

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(AMI)(ESS)

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2 RPS , ,

3

R&D Top5

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3.

- 70 -

28 (Burning Tax) (35p)

1.

,

(Earning Tax)

, (Burning Tax)

* OECD (12.4) ,

,

2.

(Burning Tax)

3.

(i) (ii)

(iii)

( )