선진핵연료주기 시스템 분석

2010. 8. 31

고 원 일

제9회 방사선안전심포지움, 2010년 8월 31일, 서울교육문화회관

- 핵연료주기별 경제성분석 -

핵연료주기 정책결정의 함의

인적 자원 화폐자원 대중수용성 에너지 사고광범위한

경제적 영향

변환 농축연료

성형가공

선행 : 원료물질을 일차연료로 변환 후행 : 사용후핵연료와 최종폐기물 관리

첨단원자로에서의TRUs 재활용

고준위폐기물

운전중 배출 사고시 배출 폐기물 처분

사용후핵연료

중저준위폐기물

사용후핵연료/고준위폐기물

에너지생산

재순환

중간저장 재처리

밀봉 및 포장

중저준위폐기물

지 구

사 회

원료물질 채광

에너지안보 핵확산위험

핵연료주기 시스템 분석 절차

Definition of System

Alternatives of NFCs

Selection of Evaluation Criteria

Material Flow

Analysis for Each Criteria

Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis

Integration Evaluation(weighting factors)

Economics, ER, PR, etc.

System-wise or Equilibriumevaluation boundary, etc.

Open cycle, Close cycle, etc.

Computer code

Derive the best option (MAUT, AHP, Delphi, etc.)

Uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulation

Optimum NFC

Economics

사용후핵연료주기 특성

우라늄235 (10kg)우라늄236 (6kg)

핵분열생성물 (46kg)

플루토늄 (11kg)

MA (1kg)

우라늄238 (926kg)

U235 (45kg)

U238 (955kg)

(4.5% 농축우라늄)

약 300 여종의 핵종 발생-고방열 : Cs, Sr-가스형태 : H-3, l, Kr 등-Tc, Sm, Nd 등

Pu의 내역

MA의 내역

그대로

변환 그대로

연소

변환 연소

그대로

그대로

그대로

변환

10

35

26

926 926

610

6

11

14

111

1,000 kg 1,000 kg

463

선진핵연료주기 à 사용후핵연료에 포함된 핵종들의 특성을 고려한 관리에 초점

핵연료주기 선정 (평형주기)

PWR

SFR

CANDU

(직접처분주기, “PWR-OT”)

PWR

(열중성자 재활용 주기. “PWR-MOX”)

PWR PWR

(파이로-SFR 핵연료주기, “Pyro-SFR”)

PWR

lHLW

TRU

SF SF

HLW

SF MOX

SF

InterimStorage Disposal Disposal

Pyro/Metal Fuel

Repro./MOX Fab.

Disposal

DUPIC Fab.

SF

(DUPIC 핵연료주기, “DUPIC”)

HLW

Disposal

참고 원자로 특성

Reactor Parameters PWR CANDU SFR

Electric power (MWe)Thermal efficiency (%)Thermal power (MWt)

Load factorCycle length (Full Power Day)

Total HM per core (tHM)No. of batches

Conversion ratio

1,00034.23

2,921.40.8290693–

71333

2,160.60.9–

84.72––

60039.4

1,522.80.8533220.3

60.6067

물질흐름 계산을 위한 가정사항

Reactor OT DUPIC PWR-MOX Pyro-SFR

PWR(UO2)

ENU: 0.71% U-235DU: 0.25 % U-235Fuel:4.5% U-235

NU: 0.71% U-235DU: 0.25 % U-235Fuel: 3.5% U-235

NU: 0.71% U-235DU: 0.25 % U-235Pro:4.5% U-235

NU: 0.71% U-235DU: 0.25 % U-235Pro:4.5% U-235

FUO2 burnup: 55GWd/tHM

UO2 burnup: 35 GWd/tHMLoss : 0.1 %

UO2 burnup: 55 GWd/tHM

UO2 burnup: 55GWd/tHM

R -OREXLoss: 0.1 %Major Waste : Kr, Xe, Cs

PUREXLoss : 0.1 %Major Waste : MA, FP

PyroprocessingLoss : 0.1 %

CANDU F -

Burn-up: 7.5 GWd/tHMCom.: Pu content :0.92 %, Pu fissile : 68 % - -

PWR(MOX) F - -

MOX Burnup: 55 GWd/tHMCom.: Pu content : 8 %, Loss : 0.1 %

-

SFRF - - -

Metal AcZrBurnup: 121 GWd/tHMCom.: DU, Pu: 33.8 %, MA: 5.6 %

R - - - PyroprocessingLoss : 0.1 %

Actinides Contained in the Spent Fuels

Spent Fuel Actinide Kg/TWh Ratio(%)

PWR SF(Once-through Cycle)

U 1,941.2 98.51Pu 25.0 1.27

MA 4.3 0.22

DUPIC SF(DUPIC Recycling)

U 2,445.5 99.05Pu 20.2 0.82

MA 3.2 0.13

MOX SF(Thermal Recycling)

U 229.2 93.44Pu 14.0 5.71

MA 2.1 0.86

SFR SF(Pyro-SFR Recycling)

U 36.3 71.46Pu 12.9 25.39

MA 1.6 3.15

핵연주기별 물질 흐름 I

Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel

FabricationPWR

(100%)Interim Storage

20.444 tU 20.424 tU 2.215 tU 2.213 tU 2.088 tHM

Disposal

2.088 tHM18.209 tU

NU NU EU

DU

Fuel PWRSF

PWRSF

Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel

FabricationPWR

(71.0%)Interim Storage

18.769 tU 18.750 tU 2.660 tU 2.657 tU 2.561 tHM

DUPIC

2.561 tHM16.090 tU

NU NU EU

DU

Fuel PWRSF

PWRSF

CANDU(29.0%)

Interim StorageDisposal

2.558 tHM

DUPICFuel

2.469 tHM

DUPICSF

2.469 tHM

DUPICSF

PWR-OT (based on 1 TWh)

DUPIC (based on 1 TWh)

핵연주기별 물질 흐름 II

PWR-MOX (based on 1 TWh)

Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel

FabricationPWR

(87.7%)Interim Storage

17.921 tU 17.903 tU 1.942 tU 1.940 tU 1.831 tHM

PUREX

1.831 tHM15.458 tU

NU NU EU

DU

Fuel PWRSF

PWRSF

PWR(12.3%)

Interim StorageDisposal

0.273 tHM

MOXFuel

0.259 tHM

MOXSF

0.259 tHM

MOXSF

MOX fuelFabrication

21.879 kg

Pu

0.002 tHM HLW

0.252 tU

핵연주기별 물질 흐름 III

Pyro-SFR (based on 1 TWh)

Mining & Milling Conversion Enrichment Fuel

FabricationPWR

(47.8%)Interim Storage

12.342 tU 12.330 tU 1.337 tU 1.336 tU 1.261 tHM

Pyro-processing

1.261 tHM10.992 tU

NU NU EU

DU

Fuel PWRSF

PWRSF

SFR(52.2%)

Pyro-processingDisposal

0.076 tHM

SFRFuel

0.068 tHM

SFRSF

0.05 kg SFR fuelFabrication

0.018 t

TRU

1.26 kg HLW

1.113 tU

0.041 tU0.017 t TRU

HLW

단위 비용

Cost items Units Low Nominal High Reference

Uranium $/kgU 25 120 354 Spot price of 08/2010& OECD 2006

Conversion $/kgU 5 10 15 Spot price of 08/2010& OECD 2006

Enrichment $/SWU 80 153 120 Spot price of 08/2010& OECD 2006

Reprocessing PUREX $/kgHM 700 800 900 ADS&FR Study(2002)Pyro-UO2 $/kgHM 500 1,500 2,500 AFCCB (2008)

Fuel Fabrication

UO2 Fuel $/kgHM 200 240 300 AFCCB (2008)&NEA (2001)

MOX Fuel $/kgHM 2,000 3,200 4,000 AFCCB (2008)

DUPIC Fuel $/kgHM 500 700 900 Korean DUPIC Study (2006)

Pyro. & SFR Metal Fuel Fab. $/kgHM 2,500 5,000 7,500 AFCCB (2008)

Long-term storageDepleted U $/kgHM 2.6 3.6 4.6 ADS&FR Study(2002)

Reprocessed U $/kgHM 2.6 3.6 40.0 ADS&FR Study(2002)

Transport & Storage

DUPIC SF $/kgHM 50 100 250 Own estimateUO2 SF $/kgHM 105 125 145 OECD/NEA (2006)

MOX SF $/kgHM 145 218 580 OECD/NEA (2006)Decay storage $/kgIHM 44 69 174 Own estimate

HLW $/m3 80,060 120,090 200,240 OECD/NEA (2006)

Disposal Packaging

UO2 SF $/kg 100 200 350 OECD/NEA (2006)DUPIC SF $/kg 80 150 250 OECD/NEA (2006)MOX SF $/kg 200 400 700 OECD/NEA (2006)

HLW of PUREX $/m3 100,000 200,000 400,000 OECD/NEA (2006)HLW of Others $/m3 100,000 200,000 400,000 OECD/NEA (2006)

Underground Cost $/m3 600 1,200 2,000 OECD/NEA (2006)

Lead and lag Time

Fuel cycleprocess

Lead/lag time (month)

Lead time (month) Purchase 21Conversion 18Enrichment 12Fabrication 6

Lag time (month) Interim Storage 18Reprocessing 78Final Disposal 480

Fuel Cycle Costs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

OT PWR-MOX DUPIC Pyro-S FRFuel cycle

RC

OST

(%)

U, Convers ion, E nrichment S tandard fuel fabrication S tandard Reprocess ing

Transport &S torage Advanced fuel fabrication Waste management

• OT : 6.42 mills/kWh• DUPIC : 8.16 mills/kWh• PWR-MOX : 8.10 mils/kWh• Pyro-SFR : 7.68 mills/kWh

불확실성 분석

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 180.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Prob

abilit

y di

strib

utio

n

Levelized cost of electricity (mills/kwh)

Pyro-SFR DUPIC PWR-MOX OT

OT DUPIC PWR-MOX Pyro-SFR

Min 3.98 5.78 6.09 4.65

Max 12.59 14.39 13.72 13.21

Mean 7.71 9.50 9.48 8.71

SD 1.58 1.47 1.39 1.19

민감도분석

0

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.03

0.03

0.11

0.99

Underground Cost

Depleted U

SF_UO2 Tran

SF_UO2 Tran

Conversion

UO2 Fuel

Enrichment

Uranium

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

00000.010.010.010.020.030.03

0.050.08

0.110.99

Underground Cost HLW from PUREX

SF_MOX Packaging HLW

Depleted U Reprocessed U SF_UO2 Tran

SF_MOX Tran. Conversion UO2 Fuel

PWR SF PUREX MOX Fuel Enrichment

Uranium

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Component

PWR-MOX

0

0

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.03

0.04

0.06

0.1

0.14

0.98

Underground Cost

HLW from O thers

Depleted U

SF_DUPIC Packaging

SF_UO 2 Tran

Conversion

UO 2 Fuel

SF_DUPIC Tran. Sto

Enrichment

DUPIC Fuel

U ranium

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Com ponent

D U P IC

0

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.09

0.34

0.38

0.85

HLW from Others

Depleted U

Reprocessed U

SF_UO2 Tran

Conversion

UO2 Fuel

Decay storage

Enrichment

PWR SF Pyro.

Pyro. & SFR Fuel Fab.

Uranium

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Coefficient

Pyro-SFR

OT

Coefficient

CoefficientCoefficient

CoefficientCoefficient

우라늄 Break-even Cost I

3.0

8.0

13.0

18.0

23.0

40 140 240 340 440 540 640 740 840 940

Uranium Price ($/kgU)

Fuel

Cyc

le C

ost (

mill

s/kW

h)

PWR-OT

PWR-MOX

DUPIC

Pyro-SFR

• Breakeven price of uranium : $ 270/kgU for Pyro-SFR fuel cycle with reference to the OT option

40 60 80 100 120100

150

200

250

300

350

Brea

keve

n Ur

aniu

m P

rice

($/k

gU)

Cost vaiation of fuel cycle components

Pyro-UO2

Pyro-metal-Fab.

Cost variation of Fuel Cycle Components (%)

우라늄 Break-even Cost II

결 론 및 토론

• 회귀민감도(regression sensitivity)의 분석결과 우라늄가격이 고온

전해분리비용, 금속핵연료 제조비용 등보다도 가장 민감한 것으

로 나타났음.

ü이는 Pyro-SFR 핵연료주기의 경제성 확보는 향후 우라늄가격

에 따라 크게 좌우됨을 의미함

• 직접처분주기와 Pyro-SFR 핵연료주기의 비용표준편차를 고려하

면, 오차범위내에 존재한다고 해석할 수 있음

• 향후, 엔지니어링 분석을 통한 정확한 파이로 비용 도출이 요구됨