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daviT WoWua

ganaxlebuli xalifati: ratom ar aris ”islamuri saxelmwifo” unikaluri?

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

2015

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publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

redaqtori: rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri,

maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2015 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-7722-7

teroristuli organizaciebi Cndebian da qrebian. zogi maTgani sakvirvel gamZleobas avlens da mowinaaRmdege saxelmwifoebi maT verasdros aRiqvamen gansakuTrebiT saSiS organizaciebad, rac xels uwyobs maTi sicocxlisunariano-bis gaxangrZlivebas. sxvebi cota xniT funqcionireben, Tum-ca araproporciulad didi sikvdilianoba da ngreva moaqvT. arian iseTebic, romlebic am oris sazarel kombinacias war-moadgenen da aseTebi, sabednierod, yvelaze mcirericxovan kategorias ganekuTvnebian.

terorizmi, romelic iseTive Zvelia, rogorc poli-tikuri Zaladobis sxva formebi, mudmivad transformirdeba, raTa cvalebad garemoebebs moergos. marTalia, Tanamedrove, postmodernuli terorizmis zogi aspeqti namdvilad SeiZleba revoluciurad CaiTvalos, magram terorizmSi mainc domini-rebs erTi da igive Temebi da amitom, Tu Tanamedrove didi teroristuli organizaciebis winaaRmdeg gvsurs warmatebu-li kontrteroristuli strategiis SemuSaveba, aucilebelia aseT jgufebTan dapirispirebebiT miRebuli gakveTilebis gaTvaliswineba.

aRsaniSnavia, rom arc `erayisa da levantis islamu ri saxelmwifo~ (ISIL) warmoadgens gamonakliss. miuxedavad medi-is mier atexili aJiotaJisa, ISIL-i ar aris Tvisebrivad axali tipis teroristuli organizacia, romelsac xarisxob rivad axleburi kontrzomeb esaWiroeba. misi moulodneli aRzeveba ufro iseT faqtorebs unda mieweros, rogorebicaa Zalian kompetenturi xelmZRvaneloba, arsebuli resursebis Zalian efeqtianad gamoyeneba da drois lamis idealuri SegrZ neba, rasac emateba saomar mdgomareobaSi myofi siriis Zalian xelsayreli garemo da Zalauflebis vakuumi, romelic eray-Si dausrulebeli seqtanturi dapirispirebis Sedegad war-moiqmna.

cxadia, ISIL-i „ufro Zliericaa da ufro cudic“, vidre Tanamedrove teroristuli dajgufebebis udidesi umravle-soba. igi siriasa da eraySi did teritoriebs akontrolebs da 31,000-mde mebrZols iTvlis, romelTagan 15,000 ucxoelia. is yvelaze mdidari teroristuli organizaciacaa, romlis Se-mosavali, 2014 wlis seqtembris monacemebiT, dReSi 2 milion

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dolars utoldeboda. marTalia, masze mdidari organizacia warsulSi Znelad Tu moiZebneba, magram teritoriuli kont-rolis TvalsazrisiT ISIL-i bevrad Camouvardeba kolumbiis revoluciur SeiaraRebul Zalebs, romelic zenitSi yofnis dros TiTqmis safrangeTisxela teritorias akontrolebda; ricxovnobis TvalsazrisiT indoeTis naqsalitebic axlac bevrad aRemateba ISIL-s. marTalia, STambeWdavia am organiza-ciis saerTaSoriso mobilizeba, rogorc masStabis, ise os-tatobis TvalsazrisiT, magram pirveli „islamuri interna-cionali“ didi xniT adre, 1980-iani wlebis avRanuri jihadis dros warmoiSva da 20,000-mde ucxoel mebrZols moicavda.

ISIL ar aris „gankiTxvis dRis“ kulti

erT-erTi umTavresi aspeqti, rac kontrteroristul-ma Tanamegobrobam axal, did, unarian da resursebiT mdidar teroristul organizaciasTan gamklavebisas unda gaaanali-zos, aris is, Tu ramdenad dasjerdeba es organizacia Cveu-lebriv SeiaraRebas, Tu airCevs brZolis dramatul eska-lacias da katastroful qmedebebs, maT Soris masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gamoyenebas. termini „katastrofuli terorizmi“ eSton karterma, jon doiCma da filip zelikov-ma 1998 wels gamoiyenes, rodesac ganacxades, rom warmate-buli Tavdasxma masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRiT aTasobiT Tu aTi aTasobiT sicocxles Seiwiravda. 1993 wels msoflio savaWro centris qveS afeTqebuli mowyobiloba birTvuli rom yofiliyo an mas momakvdinebeli paTogeni efeqtianad rom gaefrqvia, ubedureba da qaosi, rasac is gamoiw vevda, eniT aRuwereli iqneboda. katastrofuli terorizmis aseTi aqti gardamtexi movlena iqneboda amerikis istoriaSi. igi mSvidobiani periodisTvis uprecedentod did danakargs moi-tanda, daRupulebis da ngrevis TvalsazrisiT, da amerikis usafrTxoebis fundamentur gancdas daasustebda, rogorc es moxda 1949 wels, sabWoTa atomuri bombis gamocdis dros. perl harboris msgavsad, es movlena Cvens warsulsa da moma-vals or periodad _ manamde da mas Semdeg _ gayofda.2

aum sinrikios mier tokios metroSi zarinis gaSve-

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bam jer kidev ori aTwleulis win cxadad aCvena, rom tero-ristuli organizaciebis mxridan masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis gamoyeneba warmoudgenel sferos aRar ganekuTvne-boda. rva wlis Semdeg al-yaidas organizebulma 11 seqtemb-ris Tavdasxmam terorizmis axali epoqis dadgoma gvamcno _ terorizmisa, romlis ganmsazRvreli da yvelaze saSiSi maxasiaTebeli zemoxsenebuli katastrofuli xasiaTisa iyo. is, rom 11 seqtembris TavdasxmaSi masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRi ar gamouyenebiaT, garkveuli TvalsazrisiT ufro sa-gangaSoc iyo. mokled Tu vityviT, rodesac teroristuli organizacia iRebs gardamtex gadawyvetilebas, daxocos aTasobiT adamiani, masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRi ubralod am gadawyvetilebis sisruleSi moyvanis erT-erTi SesaZleb-lobaa.

amrigad, SesaZlebloba erT-erTi da ara erTaderTi gadamwyveti elementia. teroristuli organizaciebis didi umravlesoba racionaluri aqtoria da konkretuli politi-kuri amocanebis miRwevas cdilobs. metic, zogi „martosuli mgeli“ da bevri calkeuli mebrZoli ki arian TviTmkvlelebi, magram es namdvilad ar exeba teroristul organizaciebs. amitom, Tu amocanis miRweva SesaZlebelia Cveulebrivi Sei-araRebiT, teroristul organizaciebs ara aqvT aranairi re-aluri motivi, rom katastroful qmedebebs mimarTon, ma-Sinac ki, rodesac amis SesaZlebloba aqvT. organizaciebi, romlebsac ganzraxuli aqvT protosaxelmwifoebis marTva, sakuTari teritoriuli kuTvnilebis gamo gansakuTrebiT mgrZnobiareni arian gadaWarbebuli siZlieris sapasuxo darty mis mimarT.

`gankiTxvis dRis“ tipis jgufebi gamonaklisia im zoga-di wesidan, romlis Tanaxmadac, teroristuli organizaciebi racionaluri aqtorebi arian. Tumca, aseTi jgufebis msofl-xedva yovelTvis gulisxmobs raime saxis apokalifsur Se-jaxebas keTilsa da borots Soris, sadac es jgufebi sakuTar Tavs am procesis damaCqareblad moiazreben. amitom ar unda gagvikvirdes, rom masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRi yvelaze Sesaferis SeiaraRebad darCeba amgvari maniqevluri brZolis stimulirebisTvis.

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racionaluri teroristuli organizaciebi mesianis-turi xedvis gareSec ki dilemis winaSe dganan _ Caidinon Tu ara katastrofuli qmedeba, Tu amis SesaZlebloba eZlevaT. Cemi azriT, movlenebis aseTi ganviTarebisTvis Semdegi ori winapiroba unda arsebobdes:

1. „blokbasteris“ saWiroeba _ es gansakuTrebiT ukav-Sirdeba axlad Seqmnil organizaciebs, maT Soris, arsebuli organizaciebisgan „gandgomil jgufebs“. terorizmi, pirvel yovlisa, aris qmedeba. moqmedeben ra konkurentul garemo-Si, teroristuli organizaciebi erTmaneTs im sazogadoebis mxardaWeris mopovebaSi ejibrebian, romelTa, rogorc isini acxadeben, miznis (miznebis) ganxorcielebisTvisac iRvwian. amrigad, brendad gadaqceva maT finansebis nakadebiTac uz-runvelyofs da mebrZolebiTac. rogorc Cans, yvela tipis terorists kargad esmis karlos pizakanes „qmedebis propa-gandis“ efeqtianoba.

2. sikvdiliswina dartyma _ Tu teroristuli orga-nizaca iseTi viTarebis winaSe aRmoCnda, rodesac misi dasas-ruli moaxloebuli da garduvalia, organizaciis xelmZR-vanelobam SesaZloa saboloo, sasowarkveTili dartyma ganaxorcielos, raTa namdvilma Sokma, rom warmoudgeneli iqceva realobad, mowinaaRmdege saxelmwifo (saxelmwifoebi) SeaCeros, an, Tu Tavi ukve sasikvdilod aqvs gadadebuli, po-tenciuri mxardamWerebi gamoafxizlos. saxelis ukvdaveba terorizmis miTologiis ganuyofeli nawilia yvelasTvis _ religiuri fanatikosebidan dawyebuli, sekularuli eqst-remistebiT damTavrebuli. kidev ufro saxifaTo ki is aris, rom aseTi dartyma im Tamasas aswevs, romlis miRwevasac am saqmis yvelaze radikaluri mimdevrebi Seecdebian.

islamuri saxelmwifo ar miekuTvneba `gankiTxvis dRis kultebs~. miuxedavad imisa, rom Zalian ambiciuria, misi upir-velesi amocana, Seqmnas da marTos saxelmwifo, arc revolu-ciuria da arc warmoudgeneli. hamasis mier Razis seqtoris xelSi Cagdeba, Talibanis mier avRaneTis dapyroba an Tamil eelamis ganTavisuflebis vefxvebis Tu kolumbiis revoluci-uri SeiaraRebuli Zalebis mier protosaxelmwifoebis marT-va imis dasturia, rom teroristTa/meamboxeTa Zalebs namd-

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vilad xelewifebaT aseTi amocanebis miRweva. garda amisa, bevri mizezis gamo, romelTa aq CamoTvla Sors wagviyvanda, saerTaSoriso sazogadoebrioba, umeteswilad, am Zalebs did yuradRebas ar aqcevs, sanam isini raime iseT strategiul Secdomas ar dauSveben, rogoric Talibanis gadawyvetileba iyo, ar gadaeca osama bin ladeni aSS-sTvis 11 seqtembris teraqtebis Semdeg.

katastrofuli qmedebisTvis masobrivi ganadgurebis iaraRis an Cveulebrivi SeiaraRebis gamoyeneba dasavleTSi „efeqtis mosaxdenad“ ISIL-s, rogorc Cans, ar ainteresebs. brZo lis velze warmatebebma ISIL-i ukve brendad aqcia tero-ristebs Soris da mas mTeli rigi im jgufebis oficialuri erTguleba moupova, romlebic adre al-yaidasTan asocirde-bodnen. globalur jihadistur TanamegobrobaSi pirvelo-bisTvis brZolaSi al-yaida axla TavdacviT poziciaSi dgas da, Sesabamisad, ufro mondomebulia aRidginos lideris pozicia Tavisi safirmo meTodis _ katastrofuli Tavdasx-mis _ gamoyenebiT.

sikvdiliswina dartymis albaToba ki, miuxedavad imisa, rom arc erTi varianti ar unda gamoiricxos, rodesac saqme did, religiiT motivirebul teroristul organizaciasTan gvaqvs, vfiqrob, mainc mcirea. im unaris gaTvaliswinebiT, romliTac ISIL-i warsulis gakveTilebs swavlobs, ufro mo-salodneli ISIL-is ukutransformirebaa mcire zomis wmindad teroristul organizaciad im imediT, rom momavalSi, ufro xelsayreli garemo rom Seiqmneba, is kvlav aRzevdeba.

niWieri moswavle

vinaidan teroristuli organizaciebi asimetri-uli omis SedarebiT sust mxares warmoadgenen, maT mudmi-vad sWirdebaT inovacia da improvizacia, raTa resursebis uTanabroba daakompensiron. isini aseve yuradRebiT aanali-zeben warsul warumateblobebs/warmatebebs yvela doneze _ strategiulze, taqtikursa da saoperacioze _ da moqmedebis meTodebis adaptirebas axdenen mudmivad cvalebad viTareb-ebTan.

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2007-2009 wlebis warumateblobebis Semdeg ISIL-ma araerTxel daamtkica, rom is gamocdilebas yovelTvis iTva-liswinebs. rodesac mas warmatebuli kontrteroristuli strategiiT daupirispirdnen, rac gulisxmobda rogorc damiz nebiT dartymebs organizaciis xelmZRvanelobaze, ise brZolas rigiT wevrebTan sahvas3 sabWoebisa da aSS-is mier Se-qmnili koaliciis mxridan, ISIL-ma sakuTari Tavi gardaqmna da meamboxe-teroristuli Zalidan isev, Carlz listeris swor gansazRvras Tu gamoviyenebT, „tipuri teroristuli orga-nizaciis“ formas daubrunda. man sxva mniSvnelovani nabijebic gadadga, rogoricaa sakuTari Stabbinis gadatana sxva adgi-las, biurokratiis recentralizacia, cixeebze Tavdasxmebi (Tavisi xelmZRvanelobis dapatimrebuli wevrebis gasaTavis-uf leblad), koordinirebuli dabombvis masStaburi kampaniebi urbanul centrebSi da Tavdasxmebi, romlebic konkretulad armiis da usafrTxoebis Zalebis winaaRmdeg iyo mimarTuli, raTa maTi sabrZolo suliskveTeba Seesustebina.

marTlac, arc erTi zemoxsenebuli nabiji TavisTavad revoluciuri ar iyo. Tumca, am nabijebis brwyinvale koor-dinirebam aCvena, rom ISIL-i didi SesaZleblobis mqone Zalad Camoyalibda.

„islamuri saxelmwifos“ socialur-politikuri marT-vis strategia, rogorc Cans, brZolis velze mis efeqtiano-bas ar Camouvardeba. yvela tipis meamboxe organizacia, is-lamistebis CaTvliT, jer kidev aTeuli wlebis win mixvda, rom teritoriis warmatebuli kontrolisTvis aucilebelia sajaro momsaxurebis uzrunvelyofa. es „Taflakveri“, ISIL-is mier SemoRebuli kanonis darRvevisTvis dasjis drakonul zomebTan erTad, adgilobrivi suniti mosaxleobis, sul cota, farul mxardaWeras uzrunvelyofs. danarCenebi meo-rexarisxovan moqalaqeebad arian miCneuli an pirdapir devnas ganicdian.

saxelmwifo funqciebis Sesrulebaze valdebulebis aRebiT miRebuli lokaluri sargeblis garda (rac aris sazogadoebaSi damkvidreba da sazogadoebrivi mxardaWeris mopoveba finansebisa da mebrZolebis uzrunvelyofis for-miT), ar unda dagvaviwydes saerTaSoriso ganzomilebac:

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ISIL-is „saxelmwifos proeqtis“ [ucvleli] warmateba Zlieri stimu li iqneba sxva jihadistebisTvis, rom ISIL-Si gaerTi-andnen an, kidev uaresi, imave strategiis TavianT qveynebSi gadaReba scadon (ISIL-Tan afilirebis sxvadasxva xarisxiT).

dabolos, „islamurma saxelmwifom“ sasargeblo gakveTilebi miiRo xalifatis gamocxadebasTan dakavSire-buli sakuTari da sxvebis Secdomebidan. es 2014 wlis 29 ivniss momxdari strategiuli svla ar iyo teroristuli or-ganizaciebis pirveli mcdeloba (ISIL-is winamorbedebis CaTv-liT) daearsebina xalifati.4 is arc ukanaskneli iqneba.

am gamocxadebisTvis ISIL-i wlebis ganmavlobaSi didi sifrTxiliT axdenda mxardaWeris mobilizebas, maT Soris ,aqcentis gakeTebiT misi lideris _ abu omar al-baRdadis savaraudo warmomavlobaze kuraiSebis tomidan, saidanac, is-lamuri tradiciis Tanaxmad, momdevno xalifa warmoiSoboda. jgufi kvlavac usvams xazs, rom 2010 wels abu umaris gar-dacvalebis Semdeg mosuli amJamindeli lideri _ abu baqr al-baRdadi _ imave toms miekuTvneba.

marTlac, islamis bevri mkvlevari ISIL-is mier xalifa-tis gamocxadebas, islamuri iurisprudenciis TvalsazrisiT, erT-erT did Secdomad miiCnevs, romelic organizaciis Teo-logiur legitimurobas Seasustebs. maTi mtkicebiT, xalifa muslimuri samyaros umravlesobas unda warmoadgendes, ISIL-i ki amas namdvilad ar warmoadgens da amitom jgufs dasaxe-lebad „islamuri saemiro“ an „islamuri saxelmwifo“ unda aerCia. msjeloba imaze, Tu romeli zemoT naxsenebi mosaz-reba gamoxatavs ukeT islamur Teologias, aSkarad ar Se-dis am naSromis miznebSi, magram ISIL-is islamur saxelmwifos namdvilad aqvs erTi mTavari upiratesoba: „mebrZoli sasu-liero pirebis“ mier gamocemuli religiuri ediqtebi meti ndobiT sargeblobs yvela rangis jihadists Soris (da aseve sxva konfesiebis religiur teroristebs Soris), vidre is ediqtebi, romlebsac [savaraudod] ufro avtoritetuli re-ligiuri institutebi gamoscemen da romlebsac jihadistebi xSirad represiuli da eretikuli mTavrobebis msaxurebaSi adanaSauleben.

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arc erTi strategia ar aris unaklo

mebrZoli organizacia ver SeZlebs saxelmwifosmagvari warmonaqmnis grZelvadian marTvas, Tu mas ar SeuZ lia Cveu-lebrivi samxedro operaciebis Catareba, rom Tavisi terito-ria mowinaaRmdegeebisgan daicvas (an, pirvel rigSi, daipy-ros). sakmaod logikuria, rom farTomasStabiani sam xedro operaciis Catareba, romelic am organizaciis xarisxobriv winsvlas adasturebs, brZolis aseTi formis tradiciul sisusteebsac iwvevs, gansakuTrebiT _ bevrad masze Zlier Za-lasTan dapirispirebisas.

demoralizebuli erayuli Zalebis da danawevrebuli tomobrivi mebrZolebis damarcxeba ISIL-isTvis bevrad ioli saqme iyo, farTo saerTaSoriso koaliciasTan brZola ki Za-lian gauWirdeba. islamuri saxelmwifo SesaZloa am brZola-Si gadarCes rogorc organizacia, Tu is isev daubrunde-ba tipuri teroristuli organizaciis formas (an rogorc cent ralizebuli erTeuli an erTmaneTTan aramWidrod da-kavSirebuli ujredebi), magram ver gadarCeba protosaxelm-wifo, romelic man Seqmna. brZolis survilis xangrZlivi pe-riodiT SenarCuneba, rac umniSvnelovanesi faqtoria droSi gawelili omebis mosagebad, ISIL-is sawinaaRmdego koaliciis zog mokavSires SesaZloa raRac momentSi gauWirdes, mag-ram mTavari mokavSireebi _ amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi da erayis zogierTi mezobeli saxelmwifo _ brZolas imden xans gaagrZeleben, ramdenic saWiro iqneba. isini wagebas, ubralod, ver dauSveben mravali mizezis gamo _ maT Soris omis sxva qveynebSi gavrcelebis SiSiT dawyebuli da presti-JiT damTavrebuli.

jer kidev ISIL-is aRzevebamde didi xniT adre bevri wamy vani mebrZoli islamisturi organizacia idga dilemis winaSe _ ieriSi „axlo mterze“ (adgilobriv, „mwvalebel“ re-Jimebze) mietana Tu „Sor mterze“ (dasavleTze, romelsac SeerTebuli Statebi meTaurobs). xalifatis aRdgenis ambici-urma ideam, romelic, savaraudod, pirvelad abdula azams, jihadis wamyvan ideologsa da osama bin ladenis yofil mentors gauCnda, sxvadasxva formiT iCina Tavi. Tumca, es

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wamowyeba eqskluziuradac rom iyos orientirebuli adgil-obrivi mTavrobebis damxobaze, misi masStabi raRac momentSi aucileblad gamoiw vevs aSS-is Carevas „dominos efeqtis“ Ta-vidan acilebis, mokavSireebis dacvis an orive zemoxsenebu-li amocanis gamo. 2015 wlis axlo aRmosavleTis mimsgavseba 1980-iani wlebis avRaneTTan Tavis motyuebis da TviTdamarc-xebisken mimarTuli midgomaa teroristuli organizaciebis-Tvis.

azamis sasargeblod unda iTqvas, rom is racionaluri adamiani iyo. misi maRalfardovani ritorikis miuxedavad („Tu muslimebi palestinaSi wavlen da erTi kvira ibrZoleben, palestina ebraelebisgan gaiwmindeba“.), azami sinamdvileSi sakmaod realistur strategias _ „jer avRaneTi“ _ misdevda. radgan is 1989 wels gardaicvala, Cven mxolod SegviZlia vi-varaudoT, ramdenad gaamyarebda is Tavis sityvebs saqmiT, magram xalifatis SemoTavazebuli masStabi _ vrceli teri-toriebi espaneTidan filipinebamde, centraluri aziis, in-doeTisa da evropis da CineTis nawilebis CaTvliT _ am brZo-laSi yvela wamyvani aqtoris, maT Soris, zesaxelmwifoebis CarTvas aucileblad gamoiwvevda. islamistebisTvis es suici-duri scenaris tolfasi iqneboda.

rogorc azamis sicocxlis dros, ise misi sikvdilis Semdeg al-yaidas xelmZRvanelobac imave dilemis winaSe idga da sabolood upiratesoba „Sor mterTan“ brZolas mianiWa. iRebda ra sul ufro globalur xasiaTs 1990-iani wlebis Sua periodidan, al-yaidas brZolam kulminacias 2001 wlis 11 seqtembers msoflio savaWro centris kompleqssa da pen-tagonze koordinirebuli TavdasxmebiT miaRwia. miuxeda-vad imisa, rom mTeli msoflios jihadistebi am Tavdasxmas „sio nis tur-jvarosnuli aliansis“ winamZRolze gamarjvebas uwodebdnen, realurad is strategiuli damarcxebis winapi-roba iyo, romelic avRaneTSi Talibanis reJimis damxobiT damTavrda. es al-yaidasTvis istoriuli masStabebis dana-kargi iyo, Cemi azriT, ori mTavari mizezis gamo: pirveli, Talibanis mier marTuli avRaneTi yvelaze metad miuaxlov-da iseTi tipis saxelmwifos, romlis aSenebiskenac al-yaida miisw rafoda; meore da ufro mniSvnelovani ki iyo is, rom

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al-yaidam sayrdeni baza5 dakarga megobruli fundamentalis-turi sa xelm wifos saxiT, romelic aucilebelia muslimuri samyaros gaTavisuflebis da xalifatis aRdgenis generaluri gegmis gansaxorcieleblad.

politikosebsac da eqspertebsac bevri aqvT dawerili saerTaSoriso Tanamegobrobis strategiul Secdomaze _ ma-leve rom datoves avRaneTi sabWoTa armiiis iqidan gasvlis Semdeg, ramac Talibans SesaZlebloba misca sul ramdenime weliwadSi qveynis marTva xelSi Caegdo. Tumca, 2015 wlis si-ria da erayi da ISIL-is protosaxelmwifos gadarCena abso-luturad gansxvavebuli ambavi iqneba. brZolis erT mxares iseTi naklebsavaraudo mokavSireebis xilva, rogorebic aSS da saudis arabeTis samefoa, erTi mxriv, da meore mxriv, ira-nis islamuri respublikaa, sakmarisia imisaTvis, rom brZolis masStabebi davinaxoT

dabolos, miuxedavad imisa, rom erayisa da levan-tis islamuri saxelmwifo al-yaidas strategiul Secdomas _ aSS-is centris mizanSi amoRebas _ ar imeorebs, is mainc Tanmimdevrulad midis aSS-sTan Sejaxebisken Tavisi zomis, zraxvebis da, Sesabamisad, im safrTxeebis gamo, romelsac is amerikis interesebs da mokavSireebs uqmnis. amrigad, ISIL-i sakuTari warmatebis uneblie mZevali gaxda.

daskvna

2014 wlis 3 dekembers, ramdenime masStaburi Sexve-dris Semdeg, ISIL-is mowinaaRmdegeTa koaliciis 60 partniori qveyana „seriozuli ganxilvisTvis“ pirvel plenarul minis-terialze Seikriba belgiis dedaqalaq briuselSi. dasaxuli Zalisxmevis masStabi namdvilad mosawonia da is xuT mimar-Tulebas moicavs:

1. samxedro operaciebis xelSewyoba, SesaZleblobebis ganvi-Tareba da wvrTna.

2. ucxoeli teroristi mebrZolebis nakadis SeCereba.

3. finansebisa da dafinansebis wyaroebis xelmisawvdomobis gadaketva ISIL-is/daiSisTvis.

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4. humanitaruli daxmarebisa da krizisebis mogvareba.

5. ISIL-is/daiSis namdvili bunebis gamoaSkaraveba (ideologi-uri delegitimizacia).

Cemi azriT, mTavari miRweva iyo valdebulebis xelaxla dadastureba, iTanamSromlon „im saerTo, mravalwaxnagovani da grZelvadiani strategiis mixedviT, romelic ISIL-i/daiSis Sesustebas da damarcxebas iTvaliswinebs“. ISIL-is globaluri wvdoma da prozelitizmis siZliere bunebrivad moiTxovs aseTive masStabis kontrzomebs, rogorc sivrcis, ise drois TvalsazrisiT.

rogorc am naSromSi ukve aRiniSna, ISIL-i ucxoeli me-brZolebis did raodenobas _ mTliani Zalis TiTqmis naxevars iTvlis. miuxedavad imisa, rom cifrebi gansxvavebulia, iq me-brZoli dasavlelebis raodenoba aTasebs6 aRwevs da izrde-ba. rTulia im mebrZolTa zusti cifris dadgena, romlebic ucxoeTSi brZolis Semdeg saxlebSi brundebian, magram Tu aviRebT im 11%-sac ki, romelsac zogi eqsperti asaxelebs7, potenciuri safrTxe aSkaraa.8 mediawyaroebis Tanaxmad, ISIL-is rigebSi ramdenime aTeuli saqarTvelos moqalaqe ibrZ-vis, maT Soris erT-erTi _ abu omal al-SiSani, anu Tarxan baTiraSvili, wamyvani samxedro meTauria. Tumca, „islamuri saxelmwifos“ mxridan saqarTvelos mTavrobisa da xalxis wi-naaRmdeg omis raime gamocxadebis anda aSkara mtrobis Sesa-xeb jerjerobiT araferi gvsmenia, ramdenime izolirebuli SemTxvevis garda.9

wlebia, rac saqarTvelos saerTaSoriso usafrTxoebis saqmeSi mniSvnelovani wvlili Seaqvs Tavisi samxedroebiT, romlebic Rirseulad msaxuroben saerTaSoriso misi ebSi avRaneTsa da centraluri afrikis respublikaSi. isic unda iTqvas, rom saqarTvelos, rogorc ISIL-is mowinaaRmdegeTa koaliciis wevris roli humanitaruli daxmarebis gaweviT Semoifargleba. amJamad saqarTvelos parlamenti aseve msj-elobs kanonproeqtze, romliTac ucxoeTis ukanono samxed-ro formirebebSi saqarTvelos moqalaqeebis monawileobis kriminalizeba moxdeba.

ISIL-is winaaRmdeg brZolas udavod wlebi dasWirde-ba. igi moiTxovs yovlismomcvel, Tanmimdevrul Zalisxmevas

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politikur, ekonomikur, socialur, sakanonmdeblo da sagan-manaTleblo frontebze. sxvagvarad, Tu Zireuli mizezebi ar aRmoifxvra, aSS-is yofili Tavdacvis mdivnis donald ramsfeldis cnobil SekiTxvas _ „im teroristebis raode-noba ufro metia, romlebsac yoveldRiurad viWerT, vklavT, vaCerebT da azrs vucvliT Tu imaTi, romlebsac medreseebi da radikaluri sasuliero pirebi izidaven, wvrTnian da Cven-Tan sabrZolvelad uSveben?“ _ yovelTvis uaryofiTi pasuxi mohyveba da ara marto islamist teroristebTan mimarTebiT.

gamoyenebuli literatura

1 `islamuri saxelmwifo~ aseve cnobilia Semdegi saxelebiT: `erayisa da

siriis islamuri saxelmwifo~, `erayisa da al-Samis islamuri saxelm-

wifo~ (ISIS), ̀ islamuri saxelmwifo~ (IS) an daiSi (arabul enaze - ad-Dawlah

al-Islāmīyah fī al-‘Irāq wash-Shām).

2 Carter et al. (1998) “Catastrophic Terrorism,” Foreign Affairs, 77(6): gv. 80-94.

3 arabulad niSnavs `gamofxizlebas“, sunituri tomobrivi gasamxedroe-

buli SenaerTebi, romlebic eraySi al-yaidas winaaRmdeg ibrZodnen.

4 2005 wels iordanielma Jurnalistma fuad huseinma gamosca wigni sax-

elwodebiT „al-zarqavi: al-yaidas meore Taoba“. wamyvan islamist mebr-

ZolebTan, maT Soris al-yaidas da masTan afilirebuli teroristuli

organizaciebis warmomadgenlebTan Catarebul vrcel interviuebze

dayrdnobiT wignSi warmodgenili iyo al-yaidas Svidfaziani gegma xali-

fatis Camosayalibeblad. gegma xalifatis gamocxadebas mexuTe fazaSi,

sadRac 2013-sa da 2016 wlebs Soris periodSi iTvaliswinebda. ISIL-is

fesvebs abu musab al-zarqavisTan _ am organizaciis damfuZnebelTan

mivyavarT.

5 osama bin ladenis moadgilis, aiman al-zavahiris Tanaxmad, „islamuri

moZraobebi msoflio aliansze gamarjvebas ver miaRweven, Tu am moZ-

raobebs arabuli regionis SuagulSi islamuri baza [sayrdeni] ar eqna“.

(citirebulia e. karmonis naSromSi 2006). miuxedavad imisa, rom avRaneTi

arabeTis regionSi ar mdebareobs, aq arsi ufro mniSvnelovania, vidre

geografiuli mdebareoba. ISIL igive strategias mihyva, amjerad arabe-

Tis regionSi.

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6 evropolis direqtoris robin uainraitis gamoTvlebis Tanaxmad, ro-

melic man 2015 wlis 13 ianvars britaneTis TemTa palatis sesiaze daa-

sa xela, evrokavSiris 3,000-dan 5,000-mde moqalaqem datova evropa si-

riaSi, eraysa da sxva konfliqtur zonebSi sabrZolvelad. sadazvervo

organizacia Soufan Group-is ufrosi vice-prezidentis riCard baretis

TqmiT, siriaSi mebrZoli daaxloebiT 12,000 ucxoelidan 3,000 dasavle-

lia (ivnisi, 2014).

7 Brookings Doha Center-is mkvlevris, Carlz listeris gamoTvliT, evro-

kavSiris zog qveyanas, rogoric, magaliTad, holandiaa, dabrunebuli

mebrZolebis ufro maRali maCvenebeli aqvs - 20% (ricxobriv gamosax-

ulebaSi es udris 35 mebrZols 180-dan).

8 garda amisa, marTalia, yvela ucxoeli mebrZoli ar aris an ar gaxdeba

teroristi, magram am ori kategoriis garCeva Znelia, rac kidev ufro

arTulebs kontrteroristul Zalisxmevas.

9 Tamaz WaRaliZis onlainmuqarebi, romelic amJamad siriaSi ibrZvis.

WaRaliZis Tanaxmad, saqarTvelodan mebrZolebis raodenoba 200-s aR-

wevs.

bibliografia:

1. Barrett, Richard (2014) Foreign Fighters in Syria, a report by the Soufan Group

2. Carter, Ashton, John Deutsch and Philip Zelikow (1998) “Catastrophic Terrorism,” For-

eign

3. Affairs, 77(6): pp. 80-94

4. Hoffman, Bruce (1998) Inside Terrorism

5. Karmon, Ely (2006) Al-Qaida and the War on Terror after Iraq. Institute for Counter-

Terrorism

6. Laqueur, Walter (2003) No End to War: Terrorism in the 21st Century. Continuum

International Publishing Group, Inc.

7. Laqueur, Walter (1996) “Postmodern Terrorism,” Foreign Affairs, 75(5): pp. 24-36

8. Lister, Charles (2014) Profiling the Islamic State, Brookings Doha Center Analysis Paper

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9. Post, Jerrold M. (2008) The Mind of the Terrorist: The Psychology of Terrorism from

the IRA to al-Qaeda

10. Riedel, Bruce (2015) The Charlie Hebdo Attack and the War Within Global Jihad. Avail-

able at www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2015/01/07-paris-attacks-global-

jihad-charlie-hebdo?utm_campaign

11. Stern, Jessica (2003) “The Protean Enemy,” Foreign Affairs, 82(4): pp. 27-40

12. “Up to 5,000 Europeans joined jihad, Europol chief says” www.euobserver.com/

news/127202

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