eqspertis azri

iujin kogani

nato-saqarTvelos urTierTobebi: 28-s minus 1

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

2014

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publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

redaqtori: rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri,

maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2014 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-6887-4

saqarTvelo eWvebsa da molodins Soris: waxaliseba natos mxridan da ruseTis Cumi „ara“

eWvi aravis epareba, rom nato-saqarTvelos urT-ierTobebi ruseTis reaqciis gaTvaliswinebis gareSe ver warimarTeba. 2012 wlis noemberSi ianuS bugaiskim gasagebad ganacxada, rom premier-ministri biZina ivaniSvili iseve ver SeZlebs daarwmunos kremli, rom saqarTvelos natoSi gaw-evrianeba aranair safrTxes ar qmnis, rogorc es ver SeZles verc sxva mezobelma qveynebma da verc mTlianad aliansma. moskovs nato sWirdeba, rogorc mowinaaRmdege da mis ofi-cialur pozicias, rogorc Cans, veranairi donis darwmuneba ver Secvlis.1

miuxedavad imisa, rom nato ar iziarebs moskovis aR-qmas, amiT situacia ar icvleba. moskovi saqarTvelos natos wevrobas im wiTel xazebad aRiqvams, romelTa gadakveTac man ar unda dauSvas.

rogorc vasil ruxaZis statiis saTauridan Cans, avRaneTSi saqarTvelos bolodroindelma danakargebma xeli Seuwyo diskusias da gaaCina eWvebi saqarTvelos natoSi gaw-evrianebis perspeqtivebis Sesaxeb. wlebis ganmavlobaSi mim-dinare sajaro narativis Tanaxmad, saqarTvelos masStaburi monawileoba saerTaSoriso uSiSroebis daxmarebis Zalebis (ISAF) misiaSi jer eraySi, xolo Semdeg avRaneTSi qveyanas natoSi gawevrianebaSi daexmareboda, radgan Crdiloatlan-tikuri aliansis wevrebi dainaxavdnen da daafasebdnen saqa-rTvelos mier gaweul Zalisxmevas da msxverpls da qveyanas aliansSi miiRebdnen. axla bevr adamians epareba eWvi, ram-denad realisturia es imedi. bevri amtkicebs, rom saqarT-velom tyuilad gaiRo msxverpli (avRaneTSi), radgan aman dasavleTis qveynebi ver daarwmuna, rom saqarTvelo aliansSi mieRoT, procesi ki usasrulod Wianurdeba. dasavleTs ar surs ruseTis gawbileba, romelic saqarTvelos natoSi gaw-evrianebas kavkasiaSi sakuTari batonobis anaTemad aRiqvams.2 am arcTu romantikuli „sasiyvarulo samkuTxedis“ TamaSSi yvelaze mniSvnelovani da gadamwyveti Cagvrisa da daSinebis rusuli strategia aRmoCnda. am sakiTxs qvemoT ganvixilavT.

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qveynis aliansSi miRebasTan dakavSirebiT saqarTvelos mosaxleobaSi arsebuli eWvebis miuxedavad, natos general-urma mdivanma anders fog rasmusenma araerTxel ganacxada, rom saqarTvelo „swor gzas adgas“, saqarTvelo „bevrad ufro dauaxlovda natos“ da „Tanmimdevruli da mizandasax-uli mecadineobiT Tqvens mizans miaRwevT da Ria karidan Sex-valT“,3 ramac saqarTveloSi eWvebi Seamcira da molodinic gazarda. garda amisa, 2013 wlis dekemberSi rasmusenma Tqva, rom „nato-saqarTvelos komisiis Seqmnidan xuT weliwadSi saqarTvelo ufro dauaxlovda natos“. rasmusenis bolo-droindeli gancxadebebi aseve advilad SeiZleba 2005 an 2007 wels gakeTebuliyo. marTlac, saqarTvelos natosken wins-vla, cota ar iyos, zenonis aporiebs gvagonebs _ qveyana mud-mivad „uaxlovdeba“, Tumca saboloo punqtamde kidev grZeli gza aqvs gasavleli. ruseTis sagareo saqmeTa ministri ser-gei lavrovi saqmis gasafuWeblad briuselSi Cavida da pres-konferenciaze ganacxada, rom natos gafarToeba ara marto saqarTvelos konteqstSi, aramed zogadad „sabWoTa periodis civi omis inerciuli logikis gagrZelebas“ warmoadgens.

am momentisTvis saqarTvelo-nato-ruseTis Sesaxeb gaWianurebuli diskusiebi cota ar iyos Teatralur iers iRebs. saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianeba SeuZlebeli ar aris [avtoris xazgasma], magram es rom moxdes, arsebul geopoli-tikur viTarebaSi dramatuli cvlilebebi [avtoris xazgasma] iqneba saWiro. amasTan, samive mxares unda esmodes, savarau-dod, rom Tavis mokatuneba kvlavac yvelas interesSi Sedis da es aris realuri perspeqtiva. saqarTvelosTvis dasavleTTan viTomda daaxloeba mniSvnelovania rogorc Sida politikuri miznebis, ise saerTaSoriso imijisTvis. natos, organizacias, romelsac ara aqvs gamokveTili mizani, saqarTvelosnairi qveynebis gawevrianebisken swrafva sakuTari mniSvnelovnebis SegrZnebas uRrmavebs. ruseTs ki, iseTi susti mowinaaRmdegis-gan Seqmnili safrTxobela, rogoric natoa, romelic ufro „qaRaldis vefxvs“ gvagonebs, exmareba sakuTar mosaxleobasa da msoflios Zlier geopolitikur zesaxelmwifod moaCvenos Tavi. ase rom, nu velodebiT am farsis axlo momavalSi das-rulebas,4 ubralod, TamaSi grZeldeba.

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natos mxridan saqarTvelos waxalisebis gamoxat-ulebaa is, razec 2013 wlis 19 seqtembers saqarTvelos Tav-dacvis ministrma irakli alasaniam ganacxada _ 2015 wels saqarTvelos samxedro Zalebi natos swrafi reagirebis Za-lebis nawili gaxdeba. erevnis kavkasiis institutis direq-toris moadgilis, sergei minasianis ganmartebiT, natos es gadawyvetileba saqarTvelos garkveul mniSvnelobas ani-Webs natoSi srulfasovani gawevrianebis gareSe.5 minasianis naTqvamSi aris simarTlis marcvali, radgan orive mxare _ natoc da saqarTveloc _ amiT saxesac inarCuneben da karg urTierTobebsac. Tumca natos swrafi reagirebis Zalebi, rogorc kompensacia, ar aqarwylebs qarTvelebis eWvebs da arc natoSi gawevrianebis gzaze arsebul problemebs agva-rebs. qarTvelebis eWvebi kidev ufro gaaRrmava kolumbiis universitetis adamianis uflebaTa kvlevis institutSi mS-vidobis programis direqtoris devid filipis gancxadebam, rom saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianeba Soreuli momavlis sakiTxia. 2008 wlis buqarestis samitze micemuli dapireba natoSi gawevrianebis Taobaze fuWia.6 es iyo pirveli, dasav-leTis mier ase daufaravad gamoxatuli pozicia, romelic Georgia Today-Si gamoqveynda, magram mas yuradReba cota qarTvelma Tu miaqcia.

filipsis mkafio gancxadebis miuxedavad, irakli ala-saniam Turkish Policy Quarterly-sTvis micemul interviuSi Tqva: „dRis wesrigSi dgas seriozuli nabijebi _ iqneba es gawevri-anebis samoqmedo gegma Tu raime sxva, es iqneba instrumenti, romliTac saqarTvelo dafasdeba, radgan es aris qveyana, sadac tardeba reformebi, romlis politikuri sistema ix-veweba da romelic usafrTxoebis uzrunvelsayofad moq-medebs. winsvla unda moxdes, vinaidan Cven sul ufro metad vuaxlovdebiT kriteriumebs. meore mizezi, ris gamoc natom saqarTvelosTan urTierTobaSi win unda waiwios, aris is sig-nali, romelsac is aspirant qveynebs gaugzavnis: Tu kargad asruleb movaleobebs, wevrobisTvis mogiwveven. am winsvliT is ruseTs gaugzavnis signals, rom miuxedavad imisa, rac man 2008 wels Caidina, ruseTi verasdros gadaaxvevinebs aspirant qveynebs arCeuli gzidan, rom gaxdnen im gaerTianebis wevre-bi, romelSi gawevrianebasac Tavad gadawyveten“.7 SeiZleba

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qarTuli ocnebis koaliciaSi alasania sakuTar Tavs realis-tad miiCnevdes, magram misi gancxadeba _ „ruseTi verasdros gadaaxvevinebs“ _ gulubryvilod Cans saqarTvelos natosken mimaval gzaze. saqarTvelos natoSi integrirebaze ruseTis reaqciebTan dakavSirebiT aseTi gulubryvilo warmodgenebi sakmaod Rrmad aris fesvgadgmuli saqarTvelos oficialur pirebs Soris.

es gulubryviloba SeiZleba aixsnas Semdegnairad: saqarTveloSi Catarebuli saparlamento arCevnebidan TiTq-mis erTi wlis Semdeg kremlma, rogorc Cans, gaiazra, rom natos wevroba marTlac sasurvel mizans warmoadgens saqa-rTvelos politikuri klasis farTo speqtrisTvis [avtoris xazgasma]. Sedegad ki, man ar icis, rogori reaqcia hqondes im faqtze, rom ivaniSvils orive unda _ ruseTTan kargi urT-ierTobebic da natos wevrobac.8 Tumca, aseTi situacia 2013 wlis seqtemberSi iyo da mas Semdeg ruseTma ufro SeteviT da daufaravad daiwyo saqarTvelos natoSi integraciasTan dakavSirebiT Tavisi mkafio amocanis gamoxatva.9

aseTi iyo viTareba 2013 wlis bolos, rodesac nakle-bromantikuli samkuTxedis TiToeulma mxarem Tav-TavianTi roli Seasrula. Semdeg, 2014 wlis 13 ianvars, daviT usufaS-vilma pirvelad gaakeTa mkveTri gancxadebebi.

gadamwyveti Semobruneba

2014 wlis 13 ianvars aRmosavleT partniorobis es-tonuri centris mier organizebul RonisZiebaze gamosvli-sas saqarTvelos parlamentis spikerma daviT usufaSvilma mkveTrad ganacxada, rom saqarTvelosTvis gawevrianebis samoqmedo gegmis (map-i) miniWebaze isev uaris Tqma, rogorc es 2008 wels buqarestSi moxda, saqarTveloSi antidasavluri Zalebis gaZlierebas Seuwyobda xels. usufaSvilma ganacxa-da: „Tu pasuxi aris `ara~ anda `axla situacia Seicvala da regionSi ufro mniSvnelovani movlenebi xdeba da amitom, saqarTvelosTvis natoSi gawevrianebis dapirebis micema 2008 wels ufro mniSvnelovani iyo, magram axla sxva axali viTa-rebis gamo...~ _ es Zirs gamouTxris politikur stabiluro-bas qveyanaSi“. man aseve daamata, rom 2014 wlis natos samitze

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„Zalian mcire progresis“ miReba ar iqneba sakmarisi; Zneli iqneba xalxisTvis amis did miRwevad miyidva“.

am Sexvedris angariSSi, romelic saqarTvelos parla-mentis pressamsaxurma gaavrcela, weria: „saqarTvelos par-lamentis spikerma aseve ilaparaka 2014 wlis natos samitis Sesaxeb da aRniSna, rom saqarTvelos axsovs 2008 wlis biu-qarestis samitis dapireba da miuxedavad imisa, rom qveyana Tanmimdevrulad asrulebs Tavis valdebulebebs, jerje-robiT aranairi Sedegi ar Cans. man (usufaSvilma) Tqva, rom saqarTvelos konkretuli Sedegis _ map-is molodini aqvs da Tu es Sedegi ar iqneba, evrokavSirSi integracias SeiZle-ba garkveuli safrTxe Seeqmnas“.10 usufaSvilis es araoraz-rovani gancxadebebi pirveli oficialuri sayveduri iyo saqarTvelosTvis natos wevrobis samoqmedo gegmis miniWebis gzaze lokokinis tempis gamo. am SeniSvnebma usufaSvilis gaRizianeba da natos dapirebisadmi undobloba gamoavlina.

meore mxriv, premier-ministrma irakli RaribaSvilma 2014 wlis 16 ianvars Jurnalistebs uTxra, rom ar eTanxmeba usufaSvilis Sefasebas. amave dros, RaribaSvilma xazgasmiT aRniSna, rom saqarTvelos sagareo politikis prioritetebi ar Secvlila. man gamoTqva rwmena, rom „Tu map-i ar iqneba axla, is mogvianebiT iqneba... es ar Seuqmnis safrTxes da ar Secvlis evropuli integraciis kurss“.11 2014 wlis 10 Teber-vals, telekompania `rusTavi 2~-Tan interviuSi, alasaniam Tqva: „maRali albaTobiT, Semdeg samitze Cven axali instru-mentebi gveqneba natosTan ufro mWidro integraciisTvis. erqmeva mas map-i Tu sxva ram, anda iqneba es raime axali in-strumenti... es jer gadasawyvetia“.12 Zalian Znelia Tqva, ris safuZvelze varaudobs alasania, rom saqarTvelos axal in-struments mianiWeben. egeb es ministris survilia, romelsac raRac ausrulebels dahpirdnen, an egeb ministrs swams, rom miuxedavad yvela problemisa, saqarTvelos natoSi gawevri-anebis jadosnur gasaRebs miscemen. alasanias gancxadebaze marCielobas azri ara aqvs.

unda iTqvas, rom 2014 wlis 26 Tebervals RaribaSvil-ma radikalurad Seicvala azri. man Tqva, rom 2014 wlis se-qtembris samitze natom saqarTvelos map-i unda mianiWos im progresis aRiarebis niSnad, romelsac qveyanam miaRwia. mar-

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Talia, `qarTuli ocnebis~ mmarTveli koaliciis zog lid-ers adrec gaukeTebia gancxadebebi saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWebis Sesaxeb, magram es iyo pirveli SemTxveva, rodesac RaribaSvilma Tavis sityvaSi vaSingtonis atlantikuri sabWos winaSe es sakiTxi prioritetad gamoyo. RaribaSvilma Tqva, rom natosTan integraciis gzaze winsvla „arsebiTi“ iyo da amis „realisturi“ gza saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWeba iqne-boda.13 es namdvilad didi cvlileba iyo RaribaSvilis mier 2014 wlis 16 ianvars gakeTebul gancxadebasTan SedarebiT. udavoa, rom im dros ukrainaSi mimdinare movlenebma uSualo gavlena moaxdina RaribaSvilis mosazrebaze. usufaSvilis da RaribaSvilis gancxadebebma aSkarad aCvenes, rom saqarT-velosTvis map-is miniWebis sakiTxi axal fazaSi Sevida. saqa-rTvelos oficialurma pirebma Riad daiwyes map-is miRebaze, rogorc konkretul Sedegze, saubari. meore mxriv, nato Tav-dacviT poziciaSi aRmoCnda, rodesac denis samatma da aSS-is saxelmwifo departamentma mkafiod ganacxades, rom saqarT-velos map-i unda mieniWos.

rogorc liz fuleri wers, natos mouwevs awon-da-wonos saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWebis sikeTeebi da ru-seTisagan mosalodneli uaryofiTi reaqcia. 2013 wlis de-kemberSi nato-ruseTis sabWos Sexvedraze lavrovma kidev erTxel gamoxata moskovis winaaRmdegoba saqarTvelos nat-oSi gawevrianebis mimarT. lavrovi amtkicebda, rom natos gafarToeba civi omis droindeli azrovnebis gadmonaSTia, anda „gulisxmobs ara marto gamyofi xazebis SenarCunebas, romelTa waSlazec Cven yvelam pasuxismgebloba aviReT, aramed am xazebis kidev ufro aRmosavleTiT gadmowevas“.14 Zneli saTqmelia, ukavSirdeba Tu ara TbilisisTvis map-is miniWebis sikeTeebis da moskovis uaryofiTi reaqciis awon-dawonas rasmusenis amaswinandeli TavSekaveba, kerZod ki, Ta-vis arideba, saqarTvelos dahpireboda, rom is map-s miiRebda 2014 wlis seqtembris natos samitze.15 Tumca, aseTi varaudi ar unda iqnes xelaRebiT ugulebelyofili. germaniis mar-Salis fondis yovelwliur forumze briuselSi, 2014 wlis 21 marts rasmusenma hkiTxa ruseTis elCs natoSi aleqsandr gruSkos: „aRiarebT saqarTvelos uflebas, airCios natos wevroba, Tu es saqarTvelos gadawyvetilebaa da nato amas

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eTanxmeba? aRiarebT amas?“ gruSkom upasuxa: „ara. me Zalian mkafiod vTqvi: Cven amis winaaRmdegi varT. Cven migvaCnia, rom es didi Secdomaa. es Cemi qveynis poziciaa“.16 mikibmokibvis gareSe Tu vityviT, gruSkos pasuxi araorazrovani da myari iyo. am pasuxma rasmusens naTlad daanaxa, Tu ra gadaulaxavi winaaRmdegoba eqneba natos dasaZlevi imisaTvis, rom saqarT-velo natoSi miiRos.

miuxedava imisa, aris Tu ara saqarTvelos sagareo politikuri strategia ubralod gulubryviloba `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis mxridan, faqti faqtad rCeba _ ruseT-Tan daaxloeba gamoricxavs [avtoris xazgasma] saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianebis ideas. amitom gulubryvilobaa (Tavi rom davaneboT imas, rom Zalian saxifaToa), rodesac saqa-rTvelos mTavrobas sjera, rom SeZlebs moskovTan urTier-Tobebis mogvarebas da Tan saqarTvelo natoSi integraciis gzaze svlas ganagrZobs. kremlma araerTxel ganacxada mkaf-iod, rom ar dauSvebs Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis gafar-Toebas postsabWoTa sivrceSi, maT Soris, saqarTveloSi da yvelafers iRonebs, saqarTveloSi xelaxal intervenciasac ki, rom es procesi SeaCeros.17 vfiqrobT, es seriozul mid-gomas moiTxovs da ar Rirs am garemoebaTa xelaRebiT ugule-belyofa.

unda gvaxsovdes saerTaSoriso doneze gakeTebuli ori mniSvnelovani gancxadeba. londonis Links Amalysis-is di-reqtorma denis samatma Tqva, rom saqarTvelos natoSi gaw-evrianebis procesis gaWianurebas axla aranairi gamarTleba ar aqvs. es ruseTs gaaRizianebs, magram SesaZloa amisTvis Rirdes kidec amis gakeTeba. gancda, rom ruseTs garkveul-wilad vetos ufleba aqvs imaze, Tu ra moxdeba saqarTveloSi, sakmaod didxans gagrZelda da axla Tavad es gancda arasta-bilurobis da usafrTxoebis mizezia, rom araferi vTqvaT imaze, rom zRudavs am qveynebis uflebebs, Tavad gansazRv-ron sakuTari momavali. saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianeba is tabua, romelic unda dairRves rogorc ruseTisTvis, aseve saqarTvelosTvis.18 sainteresoa, rom aSS-is saxelmwifo de-partamentma imave dRes dauWira mxari saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWebas. ar aris naTeli, es arsebiTi politikuri cv-lilebaa Tu ara, magram pirvelad moxda, rom aSS-m mkafiod

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dauWira map-is miniWebas mxari. unda gvaxsovdes, rom aSS natos erTaderTi [avtoris xazgasma] wevria, romelmac es gaakeTa. aSS saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWebas 2008 welsac emxrobo-da. miuxedavad amisa, nato konsensusis principiT moqmedebs da saqarTvelosadmi skeptikurad ganwyobilma natos wevrma qveynebma, gansakuTrebiT dasavleT evropaSi, es gegma CaSa-les. raime niSani imisa, rom am skeptikosebma dRes mosazreba Seicvales saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWebis Taobaze, ar Cans. Sedegad, map-i kvlav Soreul perspeqtivad gamoCndeba, rode-sac nato 2014 wlis seqtemberSi uelsSi Seikribeba. da mainc, vaSingtonis es gancxadeba mniSvnelovania. da arsebobs mizezi virwmunoT, rom uelsSi saqarTvelo-natos urTierTobebSi raRac seriozuli moxdeba.19 aSkaraa, rom joSua kuCeram sca-da, saqarTvelosTvis raRac sasiamovno mainc eTqva da Tavisi statia daasrula varaudiT, rom uelsSi saqarTvelosa da na-tos urTierTobebSi raRac seriozuli moxdeba.

sabrZolo ganwyoba gamoxata alasaniam Eurasianet.org-is SekiTxvaze eleqtronuli fostiT gamogzavnil pasuxSi: „saqa-rTvelos natoSi gawevrianebis procesis daCqareba im axali politikuri midgomis erT-erTi arsebiTi elementi unda iyos, romelic ukeT Seuwyobs xels evropuli da evroatlantikuri stabilurobis uzrunvelyofas“. sergi kapanaZes, yofili pre-zidentis mixeil saakaSvilis mTavrobis sagareo saqmeTa min-istris moadgiles, miaCnia, rom fsonze evropis saimedooba devs: saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianebisadmi valdebulebis gaZliereba erT-erTi saukeTeso gza iqneba ruseTis lideris vladimir putinisTvis imis saCveneblad, rom dasavleTi ar aris „qaRaldis vefxvi“. natos orWofobis mTavari mizezebi kvlav arsebobs: ruseTi isev inarCunebs samxedro Zalas af-xazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi da natos gafarToebas myisier safrTxed aRiqvams. yofili sabWoTa kavSiris teritoriaze natos gafarToebisadmi kremlis mtruli damokidebulebis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelos Crdiloatlantikur aliansSi miRebam SeiZleba ruseTs ubiZgos, CaerTos iseT saomar viTa-rebaSi, romlis demonstrirebac sul axlaxan yirimSi moax-dina.20

saqarTvelos damoukidebel eqspertebs Tbilisis sur-vili, natos moaxloebul samitze map-i miiRos, gamarTle-

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bulad miaCniaT, Tumca eWvoben, rom es realisturia. us-afrTxoebis eqspertma, Teona aqubardiam, Jamestown Foundation-s uTxra: „saqarTvelosTvis `aliansSi gawevrianebis sagzao rukis~ micemis mTavari mowinaRdege aSS ki ara, safrangeTi da germaniaa“. Tumca, man ar gamoricxa, rom yirimis movle-nebis fonze „am qveynebmac ki Seicvalon pozicia da mxari dauWiron saqarTvelos“.21 aRsaniSnavia, rom natos general-uri mdivnis specialurma warmomadgenelma, jeims apaTuraim, saqarTvelos sazogadoebrivi mauwyeblis pirvel arxTan in-terviuSi Tqva, rom saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWebis sakiTxi ar ganixileboda maRali donis bolodroindel Sexvedraze. „qarTvelma xalxma ar unda iCqaros da ar unda scados natos wevrobis samoqmedo gegmis droze adre miReba“. [saqarTvelos gulis mosagebad ki] apaTuraim aRniSna, rom sjera, „seqtem-berSi axali nabiji gadaidgmeba saqarTvelos natoSi gawevri-anebis gzaze“.22 miuxedavad imisa, rom apaTurais gancxadeba 2014 wlis 10 Tebervals irakli alasanias naTqvams amyarebs, is imasac aCvenebs, rom nato ar aris jer mzad saqarTvelos map-i mianiWos.

nato-saqarTvelos urTierTobebSi aRmasvlebisa da daRmasvlebis miuxedavad, uaresi jer kidev win iyo.

mware simarTlis momenti

2014 wlis 26 marts, briuselSi evrokavSiris li-derebTan Sexvedris Semdeg, prezident barak obamam pres-konferenciaze ganacxada: „arc ukraina da arc saqarTvelo ar dganan natoSi gawevrianebis gzaze da axlo momavalSi am viTarebis Secvlis aranairi perspeqtiva ar aris“.23 anu obamam daazusta, rom nato ar apirebs axlo momavalSi mianiWos saqa-rTvelos natos wevroba an Tundac map-i, rac natoSi gawevri-anebisken mimaval oficialur gzas niSnavs. miuxedavad imisa, rom obamam gaimeora is, rac qarTvelebs ukve kargad hqondaT gaazrebuli, es gancxadeba mainc Soki iyo qarTuli sazoga-doebisTvis.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis absoluturma umravleso-bam, vasil ruxaZis gamokiTxvis mixedviT, Tqva, rom imedga-cruebulia da motyuebulad grZnobs Tavs da rom eraysa da

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avRaneTSi saqarTvelos mier gaweuli samxedro Zalisxmeva da msxverpli aSS-sgan ugulebeyofili da SeumCnevelia. isini amtkicebdnen, rom obamam patara saqarTvelos gverdze ga-dadebiT, ubralod, ruseTi daamSvida. misma gancxadebam daa-dastura bevri qarTvelis SiSi, rom dasavleTi, revanSistul ruseTTan konfliqtis safrTxis gamo, saqarTvelos aras-dros miiRebda natos wevrad.

saqarTvelos xelmZRvanelobam scada obamas gancxadebis mniSvnelobis Serbileba da erTgvarad Sereuli da araTanmimdevruli komentarebi gaakeTa. magaliTad, sagareo saqmeTa ministri maia fanjikiZe amtkicebda, rom aSS-is prezidents sinamdvileSi ar uTqvams, rom saqarTvelo ar aris natoSi gawevrianebis gzaze. parlamentis spikerma daviT usufaSvilma Jurnalistebic ki daadanaSaula aSS-is prezi-dentis sityvebis araswor interpretaciaSi miuxedavad obamas garkveviT naTqvamisa, rom axlo momavalSi nato ar apirebda saqarTvelosTvis arc wevrobis da arc map-is miniWebas. amave dros, premier-ministrma irakli RaribaSvilma Tqva, rom obamas gancxadeba adekvaturi iyo da asaxavda realobas.24

2014 wlis 28 marts saqarTvelos prezidentma giorgi margvelaSvilma telekompania `rusTavi 2~-Tan interviuSi Tqva, rom barak obamas gancxadeba natosTan dakavSirebiT „ar iyo is, risi mosmenac esiamovna“. [sakuTari imedgacruebis Sesamsubuqeblad] margvelaSvilma xazgasmiT aRniSna, rom arc aravin eloda, rom 2014 wlis seqtembris uelsis samitze saqa-rTvelos natoSi miiRebdnen.

parlamentis wevrma `qarTuli ocnebidan~ Tina xidaS-elma imave dRes ganacxada, rom seqtembris samitze natos mkafio reagirebas moelis ukrainaSi ruseTis qmedebebTan da-kavSirebiT. man aseve dasZina, rom „ruseTis qmedebebze re-agirebis erT-erTi varianti saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWe-baa. meore varianti SeiZleba im dapirebis gameoreba iyos, rom saqarTvelo natos wevri gaxdeba, Tumca miTiTebis ga-reSe, rom amisTvis saqarTvelom map-is faza unda gaiaros“.25

mokled, nato-saqarTvelos urTierTobebze mware si-marTle mosalodnelze naklebad sasiamovnoa. Znelia imis Tqma, saqarTvelosTvis es aris deJavu da Tavis mware beds unda miendos, Tu SegrZneba imisa, rom saqarTvelo Seeca-

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da, magram ar gamouvida. mTlianobaSi, saqarTveloSi didi imedgacruebaa, rom miuxedavad misi mcdelobebisa da msxver-plisa, natom danapirebi ar Seusrula da/an moatyua kidec, miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelo yvelafers akeTebda natos mkacri moTxovnebis Sesasruleblad. eWvi aravis epareba, rom, rogorc zemoT aRiniSna, nato ar aris mzad daicvas dRes saqarTvelo ruseTisgan. natos am poziciis mizezebi mraval-gvaria _ saqarTvelos gulisTvis ruseTTan urTierTobebis gafuWebis survilis arqoniT dawyebuli natos samxedro uZlurebiT damTavrebuli. miuxedavad imisa, rom pasuxismge-blobis tvirTi orive mxares unda aeRo, nato realurad gaurbis Tavis dapirebas da pasuxismgeblobas, miuxedavad natos generaluri mdivnis rasmusenis araerTi dapirebisa saqarTvelos natosTan daaxloebis da misTvis map-is mini-Webis Sesaxeb. obamas gancxadeba bolo dartyma iyo im iluz-iebis dasamsxvrevad, romlebic bevrs hqonda rogorc natoSi, aseve saqarTveloSi. Sedegad, dRes saqarTveloSi yvelas es-mis, rom uelsis natos samitze viTareba ar Seicvleba. natos oficialur warmomadgenlebs ar surT amis aRiareba; Tan amas verc uaryofen. meore mxriv, ruseTma, rogorc am urTierTo-bebis iribma monawilem, warmatebiT SeZlo am urTierTobebis swori gzidan acdena im daufaravi da pirdapiri strategiis gamoyenebiT, romelic ewinaaRmdegeboda saqarTvelosTvis map-is miniWebis da Semdeg mis natoSi gawevrianebas. gakveTi-li, romelic saqarTvelom am mtkivneuli gamocdilebiT unda miiRos, aris is, rom natom, miuxedavad misi Ria karis politikisa da saqarTvelos daxmarebisa, ver moutana qveya-nas is sikeTeebi, rasac map-i da aliansSi qveynis Semdgomi gawevrianeba hqvia. ufro advilia nato daadanaSaulo yvela ubedurebaSi, vidre saqarTvelos ararealisturi molodini aRiaro. amis aRiarebisTvis qveynis xelmZRvaneloba mzad ar iyo da jerac ar aris.

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gamoyenebuli literatura

1 “Georgia’s Post-Election: Challenges and Priorities”, strategiisa da saerTaSoriso kvlevebis centri (CSIS), 2012 wlis noemberi; ix.: http://csis.org/files/publica-tion/121106_US-Georgia_Policy_Brief_Bugajski.pdf; gv. 5

2 statiis sruli versia ix.: “Latest Georgian Casualties in Afghanistan Spark Unprec-edented Public Debate and Doubts about Georgia’s NATO Perspectives,” The Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 10, issue 116; www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=41041&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=685&no_cache=1#.Uz_R_6iSzsY; 19 ivnisi, 2013.

3 www.civil.ge/eng/_print.php?id=26217; 27 ivnisi, 2013.

4 am damafiqrebeli statis sruli versia ix. Joshua Kucera, “Georgia Again ̀ Clos-er’ to NATO. But Will it Ever Get There?” Eurasianet.org; www.eurasianet.org/node/67831; 5 dekemberi, 2013.

5 statiis sruli versia ix.: ttp://www.stratfor.com/the-hub/russian-concerned-about-georgia-joining-nato-special-task-force; 19 seqtemberi, 2013.

6 Maia Edilashvili, “Phillips: Moscow’s Problem is Georgia’s Sovereignty,” Georgia Today, nomeri 685; www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=11550; 11-17 oqtomberi, 2013. zaur Siriaevma ufro bundovani gancxadeba gaakeTa, rom saqarT-velos natoSi gawevrianebis vadebi am momentisTvis daudgenelia, miuxeda-vad imisa, rom Tbilisi 2014 wels map-is miRebas moelis. srulad statia ix.: “NATO and the South Caucasus: What Next?” Today’s Zaman; www.todayszaman.com/columnist/zaur-shiriyev_332726_nato-and-the-south-caucasus-what-next.html; 30 noem-beri, 2013.

7 „interviu irakli alasaniasTan: saqarTvelos Tavdacva“ (2013 wlis Semodgoma); gv. 16.

8 statis sruli versiisTvis ix. Joshua Kucera, “Georgian NATO Ambitions Annoy Russia, Even Under Ivanishvili”, Eurasianet.org; www.eurasianet.org/node/67536; 23 se-qtemberi, 2013.

9 damatebiTi informaciisTvis ix. SeniSvnebi 16, 17 da 20.

10 sruli statia ix.: www.civil.ge/eng/_print.php?id=26857; 14 ianvari, 2014. aseve ix.: http://en.trend.az/regions/scaucasus/georgia/2229641.html; 14 ianvari, 2014.

11 statiis sruli versia: Liz Fuller, “Georgia Sets Sights on NATO Membership Action Plan,” Caucasus Report; www.rferl.org/content/caucasus-report-georgia-nato/25232112.html; 16 ianvari, 2014. SemdgomSi moxseniebulia, rogorc Liz Fuller,“Georgia Sets Sights”.

12 sruli statia ix.: www.cvivil.ge/eng/article.php?id=26931; 10 Tebervali, 2014.

13 sruli statia ix.: www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=26978; 26 Tebervali, 2014.

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14 sruli statia ix.: Liz Fuller,“Georgia Sets Sights”.

15 www.rferl.org/content/georgia-rasmussen-nato-membership/25254477.html; 22 mar-ti, 2014.

16 sruli statia ix.: www.civil.ge/eng/_print.php?id=27060; 22 marti, 2014.

17 Vasili Rukhadze, “Georgian Government Plays an Unattainable Foreign Policy Game,” The Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 11, issue 34, ix.: www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42005&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=756&no_cache=1#.Uz6ECqiSzsY; 21 Tebervali, 2014.

18 statiis sruli versia ix. vebgverdze: www.geotimes.ge/index.php?m=home&newsid=30745&lang=eng; 27 Tebervali, 2013.

19 statiis sruli versia ix.: Joshua Kucera,, “US Endorses NATO MAP for Georgia,” Eurasianet.org; vebgverdze: www.eurasianet.org/node/68092; 27 Tebervali, 2014.

20 statiis sruli versia ix.: Giorgi Lomsadze, Georgia: Does Ukraine Crisis Im-prove Euro-Atlantic Integration Odds?” Eurasianet.org; vebgverdze: www.eurasianet.org/node/68109; 6 marti, 2014.

21 statiis sruli versia ix.: Giorgi Menabde „Tensions around Crimea Create New Risks for Georgia,” The Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 11, is-sue 50; vebgverdze: www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42104&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=756&no_cache=1#.U1jx6FWSzkM; 17 marti, 2014. natos did wevr qveynebs, rogorebicaa germania, safrangeTi, italia da gaerTianebuli samefo, regionSi natos yvelaze erTguli momxre qveynisTvis, saqarTvelosTvis, map-is miniWebis sakiTxis ganxilvac ki [av-toris xazgasma] ar surT. natoSi gawevrianebis es gegma yvela xelmomwer mxares aliansis gawevrianebis gzaze ayenebs da rodesac qveyana srulfa-sovani wevri xdeba, is sargeblobs erToblivi usafrTxoebis garantiiT, romelic organizaciis me-5 muxlSia gansazRvruli. praqtikulad [avtoris xazgasma] es niSnavs natos mier saqarTvelos dacvas ruseTisgan [avtoris xazgasma], risTvisac arc aSS da arc natos sxva wevri qveyana dRes mzad ver iqneba [avtoris xazgasma]. statia srulad ix.: Judy Dempsey, “NATO Must Avoid New Cold War Borders,” Carnegie Europe; vebgverdze: http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=55304; 10 aprili, 2014.

22 http://en.trend.az/regions/scaucasus/georgia/2256066.html; 26 marti, 2014.

23 www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-usa-eu-summit-nato-idUSBREA2P18L2014 0326; aseve ix.: www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=27079; 26 marti, 2014.

24 am brwyinvale statiis sruli versia ix.: “Georgia is Reeling After President Obama’s NATO Statement,” The Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 11, issue 69; vebgverdze: www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42219&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27&cHash=26b9d13ba2bfca15e2dbb0fcbc63a205#.U0kCMFWSzsY; 11 aprili, 2014.

25 statiis sruli versia ix.: www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=27089; 28 marti, 2014.

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