EricP.Bjorkstedt,MarisolGarcia-Reyes,BillSydeman,JohnLargier,

MarcelLosekoot,BrianTissot

Motivation� Oceanographicimage

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

FauxMPA

Regional(network)scaledynamics

Local(consistent)oceanographicstructure

OceanographicContext

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

Woodson etal(2012)

Bjorkstedt&Peterson(2016)

Basin-scaleclimatedriversofCCS

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

-3-1

13

MEI

-3-1

13

PDO

2005 2010 2015

-3-1

13

NPGO

Climatetrends&events� 2009-10ElNiño� 2011LaNiña� 2014WarmBlob� 2015-16ElNiño

-3-1

13

MEI

-3-1

13

PDO

2005 2010 2015

-3-1

13

NPGO

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

CopepodCommunity� Arrivalofwarm-waterspeciespost2010ElNiño� Displacementofcold-waterspeciesbyBloband2015ElNiño

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

ONCAEAOITHONA.SPINIROSTRIS

OITHONA.SIMILISMICROSETELLA

MESOCALANUS.TENUICORNISLUCICUTIA

PARACALANUSEUCALANUS

CLAUSOCALANUS.PERGENSCLAUSOCALANUS.PARAPERGENSCLAUSOCALANUS.ARCUICORNIS

CLAUSOCALANUSCALOCALANUS.TENUIS

CALOCALANUS.STYLIREMISCALOCALANUS.PAVOCALANUS.PACIFICUS

ACARTIA.DANAECTENOCALANUS.VANUSCORYCAEUS.ANGLICUS

ACARTIA.TONSASCOLECITHRICELLA.MINORNEOCALANUS.PLUMCHRUSMICROCALANUS.PUSILLUS

METRIDIATORTANUS.DISCAUDATUS

PSEUDOCALANUSCALANUS.MARSHALLAEACARTIA.LONGIREMISACARTIA.HUDSONICA

10

1000

1e+05

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

CNSA

WO

WN

UB

Unusualkrillvisitors(copepods,too)

Photocredit:R.Robertson

Fromoffshore:Euphausiarecurva(2014-15,2015-16)

Fromthesouth:Nyctiphanessimplex(2015-16ElNiño)

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

McCabeetal.2016GRL

HarmfulAlgalBloom

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

BottomLine:

BaselineStudyPeriodspannedsomehighlyunusualoceanconditions.

Asyet,itisunclearwhethertheseyearswere(big)blipsormarkapersistentshift.

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

Wanna knowmore?

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

MOCI

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

-3-1

13

MEI

-3-1

13

PDO

2005 2010 2015

-3-1

13

NPGO

� Holistic,syntheticregionalindex� Blendsbasinscaleclimateindiceswithlocal(regional)measuresofoceanconditions.

� Seasonalanomalies(e.g.,comparingamong‘springs’)

MOCI

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

BaselineStudyPeriod:anomalouspolewardflows

OceanCurrentsHFRadar,SatelliteAltimetry,TideGauges

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

SST,SST,SSTFrontalIndex∆

Consistentalongshorestructure

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

Anomalousconditions

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

WarmBlob ElNiño

Smith River at Crescent City (1960-2016)

month

mea

n flo

w (c

fs)

A S O N D J F M A M J J

1000

1000

0

201420152016

2000-2013

Smith River at Crescent City (1960-2016)

month

cum

ulat

ive

mea

n flo

w (c

fs)

A S O N D J F M A M J J

1000

1000

010

0000

20142015

2000-2013

2016

RiverDischarge

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

ConsistentOceanStructure

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

39.0

40.0

41.0

42.0

lat

mSST

mFI

mCHL

mSLa

mXSh

mASh

wshdPrx k= 3 5 7 9

BottomLine:BaselineStudyPeriodspannedsomehighlyunusualoceanconditions.

WarmanomaliesPolewardflowChangesinplanktonecosystem/HAB

Asyet,itisunclearwhethertheseyearswere(big)blipsormarkapersistentshift.

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

Questions?� Oceanographicimage

NCSRMPASymposium5May2017

FauxMPA