ERRONEOUS PERCEPTIONS OF CHINESE BACCARAT PLAYERS: EVIDENCE FROM GUIDE BOOKS

HUANG, Gui-Hai (Samuel), Ph.D. Gaming Teaching and Research Centre, Macao

Polytechnic Institute, China

9th European Conference on Gambling Studies and Policy Issues

From Fantasies and Feelings to Facts in the Future 18 - 21 September 2012

Club Hotel Loutraki, Loutraki, Greece

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OUTLINE Background A Brief Introduction to Baccarat Literature Review Methodology Data Analysis Discussion and Conclusion

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BACKGROUND Macao has been the largest casino city since 2007. Baccarat is the dominant game in Macao. It has

contributed 91.4% of casino gaming gross revenue in 2011.

Both probable pathological and problem gambling rates are 2.80% in 2010(Fong, & Ng, 2010)

Baccarat is the favorite casino game of 92% of problem gamblers who sought help from the Resilience Centre between 2006 and 2011(Resilience Centre, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012).

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A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO BACCARAT Baccarat statutory rules issued by Secretary for

Economy and Finance Main bet options: banker, player or the tie. Side bet options: bank pair, player pair, dragon-7,

progressive jackpot. At the beginning, eight decks cards are put in one

shoe. The first several and the last about one deck of cards are discarded.

The cards are not reshuffled before these cards are used out.

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A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO BACCARAT Two or three cards are given to player and

banker following the rules. Cards Ace through Nine each are worth their

face value and the cards ten, jack, queen and king are each worth zero points.

A hand is evaluated as the sum modulo ten of its cards, i.e., only the last digit of the total is counted.

A hand with a value closer to nine will win.

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A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO BACCARAT Within one shoe, the different runs of the games

are inter-related rather than independent. “Although the game seems serious and elegant, it

is really as simple as betting on the flip of a coin.”(Shackleford, 2011)

Hannum and Cabot argue that ‘baccarat is for all practical proposes a game of pure chance”(2001, p. 99)

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LITERATURE REVIEW Erroneous perceptions maintain gambling

despite negative outcomes. (Delfabbro, 2004; Jacobsen, Knudsen, Krogh, Pallesen, & Molde, 2007).

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LITERATURE REVIEW The gambler’s fallacy comes from an expectation

that the sequences of short-run events will be representative of long-run distributions.

If some pattern like P(player bet wins)-B(banker bet wins)- P- B appears, the gambler expect the player bet will win next round.

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LITERATURE REVIEW The illusion of control is the tendency for

individuals to overestimate their ability or knowledge to control events that is not warranted by objective reality(Lang, 1975).

It is also referred to as overconfidence (Goodie, 2005), magnification of gambling skill(Toneatto, 1999).

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LITERATURE REVIEW Illusory correlations: Individuals believe that

events they expect to be correlated, due to previous experience or perceptions, have been correlated in current experience, even when they have not been(Gaboury & Ladouceur, 1989).

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LITERATURE REVIEW Availability of others’ wins: When individuals see

and hear fellow gamblers winning on nearby slot machines, it allows them to believe that winning is a frequent occurrence and reinforces the belief that they will win if they continue to play (Griffiths, 1994)

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LITERATURE REVIEW Interpretive bias. It allows gamblers to reframe

their memories regarding gambling experiences in a way that focuses on positive experiences (wins) and disregards negative experiences (losses), facilitating the rationalization of a decision to maintain gambling behavior.

etc.

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METHODOLOGY Ten books of Baccarat tips collections written by

five authors have been collected. All of the five authors are believed to be

experienced baccarat players. Five books written by different authors are

reviewed . While more than one statements illustrating one

type of erroneous perceptions may exist in one book, only one statement was documented in this study.

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LEONG ZEONG: INTRODUCTION TO AND WINNING TIPS FOR BACCARAT “Six Square Magic Strategy”: Regard 36 games as

one session. Record the outcomes of these 36 games in a 6*6 square diagram. For every six games in any one row/column/diagonal, each of banker and player bet must win three games. Bet using such diagram(p. 9).

B P B B P P B B P P B P P B P B P ? P P B P B B B P ?? P P B

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LEONG ZEONG: INTRODUCTION TO AND WINNING TIPS FOR BACCARAT Chasing: When gamblers are losing, the betting

decision will easily become out of control unless others (friend/relatives) stop him/her. Or he/she will lose more and more. Such phenomenon can been seen almost everyday in casinos(p. 78).

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LEONG ZEONG: INTRODUCTION TO AND WINNING TIPS FOR BACCARAT(2006) Illusion of Control: It is absolutely worthwhile to

learn and to practice Baccarat betting tactics (p. 41).

Illusory Correlations: If you believe that gambling is the product of devils and devils must be active in the night and inactive during the daytime, you may win if you stick to gamble during the daytime (p. 95).

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YIP, WAI-TONG: BACCARAT TIPS COLLECTION(2006) Illusion of Control : From the pragmatic

perspective, the reasonable return on Baccarat gambling should be 200% (p. 35).

Follow the winner: There are three types of gamblers: the unlucky ones, the ordinary ones and the lucky ones….. Follow the lucky one to gamble at increasing betting sizes until the lucky one loses( p. 46).

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BRUCE CHEN: WINNER TAKES IT ALL--ROADMAP TO BACCARAT FORTUNE (2010) He proposed a sophiscated betting size

management strategy: Bet only on player or banker. Regard 5 runs of game as one small episode, 4 small episodes as one session. In each session, starting from a reasonable small betting size, increase betting amount in a predetermined incremental scales if the previous bet wins. Restart from small betting amount when the previous bet lose or one small episode ends(pp. 108-131).

Illusion of control 21

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Baccarat is a very complex table game. The cards

in one shoe(eight decks) used by previous runs will not be reused, the outcomes of the game using cards from a same shoe are NOT statistically independent. Many erroneous perceptions are difficult to falsify.

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DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION Three popular erroneous strategies shown in

these books are Betting size management (illusion of control) Following trends(gamblers’ fallacy) Following the winner(illusory correlation)

Following the winner is unique illusory

correlation to Baccarat.

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HUANG, GUIHAI (SAMUEL) Associate Professor Gaming Teaching and Research Centre Macao Polytechnic Institute, China W: gtrc.imp.edu.mo E: ghhuang@ipm.edu.mo Director-General Asia Pacific Association for Gambling Studies(APAGS) W:www.gamblingstudies.org E: apa4gs@gmail.com

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