Professor John Sodeau Department of Chemistry & Environmental Research Institute

University College Cork @JohnSodeau, crac.ucc.ie

Every Breath You TakeEva Philbin Award Lecture

Institute of Chemistry of Ireland

Let there be Light…otherwise……

….there would be no atmosphere……

PHOTOCHEMISTRY

VOLCANIC EMISSIONS TO AIR

HONC

…..no plants…..no us….

O2

CO2

A mutual dependence

…no climate.........

PV=nRT n/VT

THERMAL GRADIENT SET UP

INTENSE

WEAK

Earth rotates

Sun heats Earth. Hot air is less dense and rises

Earth rotates and cold dense air flows in underneath

Low pressure on top of high pressure! WIND

Off-axis, rotating planet

OCEANS

IMPORTANT

….no weather…no lecture!

CLIMATE

PERSONALITY

WEATHER

MOOD

Winds: Earth’s natural air conditioning

TRANSFER HEATFROM

EQUATOR TO POLES

TRANSFER AIR POLLUTANTS THROUGHOUT

THE FLUID ATMOSPHERE

Atmosphere: Gk. atmos “vapour/steam" + spharia "sphere”

The Air that we breathe

If only it were that simple

Nature creates air pollution

We create air pollution (anthropogenic)TRANSPORT AGRICULTURE SOLID FUEL

What are the most abundant Air Pollutants?

INVISIBLE PARTICULATE MATTER (PM10 and PM2.5 and PM1)

VISIBLE SOLID PARTICLESBLACK CARBON BROWN CARBON

Why does our Air need care?

GLACIER MELTING

INCREASING NUMBERS OF MORE INTENSE “EXTREME”

WEATHER EVENTS

FLOODING

DESERTIFICATION

From snowball to life as we know it, Jim

20 October 2017~700,000,000 BC

With initial thanks to atmospheric CO2…..and later H2ONATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Earth’s Climate is Changing

1961

Global temperatures are increasing

SO WHAT?

Warm seas and dead puffins

Bering Sea-bed at

Zooplankton

Fish

Birds

+6 oC in 2016

<0 oC until 2015

The Four Horsemen ride again?

2. FOOD INSECURITY1. DROUGHT

4. WAR 3. FAMINE

Climate Change Refugees: How many for Ireland? (1089 in 2018)

GLOBAL ESTIMATES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEE NUMBERS RANGE BETWEEN 10’S OF MILLIONS AND

100’S OF MILLIONS.CERTAINLY MORE THAN 1089

President Trump B.S.

MIAMI NAPA VALLEY HOUSTON

It’s in our Nature: roasted and drowned out of it

It all starts with our Atmosphere

Our atmosphere keeps us warm and protects us from UV radiation

Atmospheric chemical composition and climate change

2005

High point in 2016 for CO2

was 0.0410%.

That is 410 ppmv

(parts per million by volume)

All of these chemical components allow the Sun’s UV and visible

radiation through to the surface. When these wavelengths

(photon energies) reach the surface they become degraded to

infrared (IR) radiation and bounce upwards.

Only carbon dioxide of the above group can trap this energy.

Water Vapour: another IR trap

Cycle dependent on the Earth’s average surface

temperature(+15 oC).

In August 2017 the temperature was 1 oC above

the 1981-2010 norm.

With no atmosphere (containing CO2 and H2O)

our surface temperature would be -18 oC !

Water Cycle

The Natural Greenhouse effect

Not too hot Not too cold

Just right!

How the Greenhouse effect works

The trapping by atmospheric gases like

CO2 or CH4 and particles like black carbon of outgoing infrared

wavelengths emitted by Earth.

CO2 effect predicted in 1896!

“I have calculated the mean alteration of temperature that would follow if the quantity of carbonic acid varied from its present value to a doubled value: 5-6 C.”

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

Methane: Production and Feedbacks

CLIMATE CHANGE

MORE RAIN

MORE WETLANDS

MORE METHANE

FEEDBACKS

July 2017 1842 ppbv

July 2016 1834 ppbv

1 short ton =2000 lbs

Industrial Revolution: Building the Greenhouse

280 ppmv

baseline

for CO2

(1750-1760)

59 years of CO2 data from Mauna Loa, HawaiiMarch 1958 to October 2017

Decade Total Increases Average Annual Rates of Increase

2005 – 2014 21.06 ppm 2.11 ppm per year

1995 – 2004 18.67 ppm 1.87 ppm per year

1985 – 1994 14.24 ppm 1.42 ppm per year

1975 – 1984 14.40 ppm 1.44 ppm per year

1965 – 1974 10.56 ppm 1.06 ppm per year

1960 – 1964 3.65 ppm 0.73 ppm per year (5 years)

2015-2016:

4.5 ppm increase.

Are we going

exponential?

2015 to 2016 temperature/CO2 change

2016/2017

Are we there yet? Are we there yet?

A missing piece of the puzzle: effect of aerosols on climate change

Volcanoes

Absorption of heat by dark particles

Winter is Coming: Aerosols and Climate Change

In 1815 the Mt Tambura strato-volcano in Indonesia erupted violently. In Europe, 1816 became known as the “Year without a Summer” with lower average temperatures by up to 3 0C.

The Irish Famine of 1740-1741: the first environmental migrants?

In 1737, two strato-volcanos (Vesuvius and Avachinski) erupted violently. In 1739, Ireland experienced the start of a full year of below average temperatures with Frost fairs possible on the Shannon. The crops failed. Many died or emigrated……

Not just Ireland, Danny!Between December 1739 and May 1740, London had 39 snowy days.

For two of these months, average temperatures were < 0 0C.

+ = +

Global temperature was 14.8 oC

in 2015

(1.0 oC above)

Paris Climate Accord: Start date 2020

168 80%

16 OCTOBER 2017

AIM:

To keep global temperatures well below 2 oC

above 1850-1900 levels by 2100

(To aspire to 1.5 oC)

Global temperature was 13.8 oC

in 1850-1900

Global temperature was 15.0 oC

in 2016

(1.2 oC above)

We are close to a + 2 0C world at 410 ppmv CO2. What level in 2100?

Source: Stern Review

LOW

ESTIMATE

MEDIUM

ESTIMATE

HIGH

ESTIMATE

What it all means to us

Who cares…. as long as you’ve got your health?

The Health Problems of Particle Pollution

Deaths per

year due to

air pollution

calculated

from data like

this

Nobody has

air pollution as

a cause of

death on a

death

certificate

Cardiovascular effects of Particle Pollution

FREE RADICAL INFLAMMATION

PM, NOX

WHO now estimates that around 8 M people die each year - one in eight of total global deaths – as a result of air pollution exposure. (4.3 M indoor and 3.7 outdoor).

Majority due to cardiovascular disease.

STROKE

HEALTHY

Possible effects on dementia of airborne ultra-fine particles (UFP)

Magnetite (Fe3O4) nanoparticles <150 nm in diameter have been

found in brain tissue harvested in Manchester and Mexico City.

Magnetite contains Fe(II).

Fe(II)/H2O2

2017 Canadian Study shows dementia links to living <200 m from busy roads

Tyres/Brakes/Exhaust

Air Pollution Particles from Solid Fuel Burning

Solid fuel burning produces PRIMARY PM2.5

Smoky coal (4.3 kg/1000 kg burnt)Home heating oil (0.1 kg/1000 kg burnt) Gas (0.0/1000 kg burnt)Peat (4.5kg/1000kg burnt)Wood (9.0 kg/1000kg burnt)

Sources of Air Pollution in Killarney (EPA/UCC SAPPHIRE PROJECT)

Domestic Solid

Fuel Burning

produces > 70%

of the small

particles

Traffic

produces 1%

of the small

particles

The Health Problems of NO2 pollution

Nearly 9500 people are killed by air pollution each year in London. About 3500 from PM2.5 and ~6000 from NO2

1480 people killed by air pollution in Ireland each year. 1480 from

PM2.5 and 10 from NO2

Air Quality needs to be monitored and reported in real-time….like most of Europe

“Urban background stations and traffic oriented stations

should be part of the monitoring programme in

the designated zones.” (EU CAFÉ Directive)

“Up to date information on concentrations of all regulated pollutants in ambient air should be readily available to the

public.” (EU CAFÉ Directive)

Up-to-date information on Air Pollution: EU and beyond

World Air Quality Index (19th October 2017) http://aqicn.org/map/europe/

ONE STATION IN IRELAND:NOT REPORTING.

(Things can only get better)

Air Pollution and Climate Change are two sides of the same coin

Is the future electric?

Yes it is from a roadside air pollution

perspective

No it is not from a climate

change perspective

with our current fossil fuel power

stations

Yes it is from a climate change

perspective when we STOP

generating electricity from

fossil fuels

The other brother: a load of rubbish

Clean Air from Clean Energy

What can we do?

Final Words

Tom Lehrer, 1962

Thank you!

https://youtu.be/7ap8O-M6bIA

crac.ucc.ie

What if we do nothing…..