evidencias atmosféricas del cambio climático en el pacifico ...evidencias atmosféricas del cambio...
TRANSCRIPT
Evidencias Atmosféricas del Cambio Climático en el Pacifico Sur Oriental
René D. Garreaud
Departamento de Geofísica Universidad de Chile
Centro del Clima y Resiliencia
Reunión conformación grupo expertos nacionales en Cambio Climático del Sistema Marino
Valparaiso, 21-Dic-2018
120°W 90°W 60°W 30°W
60°S
30°S
0°S
S. Atlantic Anticyclone
Midlatitude Storm track
Continental Low Level Jet
SE Pacific Anticyclone
Midlat. Precip.
Tropical rainfall
SCu & Cold SST
The big picture v qt
LLJ
1000 m ASL
Is t
he r
eg
ion
al co
oli
ng
of
the
Hu
mb
old
t E
BU
S a
lread
y t
akin
g p
lace?
Offshore
Coast
Inland
West Andes
East Andes
Falvey & Garreaud 2009
Is t
he r
eg
ion
al co
oli
ng
of
the
Hu
mb
old
t E
BU
S a
lread
y t
akin
g p
lace?
Aguirre et al. 2009
Vwind & SST trends (1979-2015)
Is the regional cooling of the
Humboldt EBUS already taking place?
Over the Pacifc SST trend looks very similar to the PDV patter
2006-1979
Falvey & Garreaud 2009
Is t
he r
eg
ion
al co
oli
ng
of
the
Hu
mb
old
t E
BU
S a
lread
y t
akin
g p
lace?
Observed (ERA) PDO-Congruent
AMIP (Ocean forced) Hist (CC)
SLP trends (1979-2015)
Aguirre et al. 2009
Central Chile Southern Chile Annual rainfall trends
(1960-2016)
Precipitation trends over land
Boisier et al. 2018, Elementa
Frequency Area Chlorophyll Discharge Nitrate Phosphate
Plume River Load
43
45
55
61
61
75
45
96
39
46
45
46
104
59
21
41
51
65
55
62
55
70
100
83
55
88
86
96
102
102
Numbers and colored areas indicate the mega drought (2010-2014) mean values of selected variables as a percentage of the past decade (2000-2009) averages for five rivers in central Chile. Maipo, Mataquito and Maule river have P and Ni data until 2011 only.
39°S
31°S
Massoti et al. 2018, Frontiers
Impact of Mega drought in coastal zone
Precipitation trends 1960-2005: Attribution Both O3 depletion and GHG increase, but O3
effect dominates in summer
Boisier et al. 2018, Elementa
What about
Extreme Events?
Puelo summer
Puerto Montt annual
Trend and Variability
Leon-Muñoz et al. 2018, Sci. Reports
Greening
Drying
No change
-90 0 +90 %
Chiloe Island
Aysen River
Coyhaique
NW
Pat
ago
nia
Puerto Montt
(a) Precipitation anomalies (b) Enhanced Vegetation Index anomalies (a) Streamflow anomalies
The awful 2016
El Niño! Natural….
SAM! Antrophogenic
r = -0.2
Large scale conditions JFMA 2016
Garreaud 2018, Sci. Res.
Mortality
Uptake
Encystment
Grazing Advecction Transport
Turbulence Upwelling
Harvesting Consumption
Competition
Dormancy
Alexandrium Catenella
Other Algae communities
(Diatoms)
Bloom Zooplankton
Shell fish
Pelagic fish
Solar Radiation
Photosynthesis
Consumption Filtering
SXT accumulation
Cell growth
Physical processes
Biological processes Macro algae
Cyst
Zygote
© RGarreaud / DGF-UCh + CR2
Nutrients (P,N,Si)
Solar Radiation
Heat Fresh Water Momentum
Atmosphere/Land Boundary Conditions
Nutrient Fluxes (N, P, Si)
Upwelling
Aquaculture
Excystment Sedimentation Deep
Water
Poisoning
Fluxes
Upwelling
Ocean state:
• Temperature • Stratification ((z)) • Vertical velocity • Currents • pH
Uptake
Advecction Transport
Turbulence Upwelling
Alexandrium Catenella
Bloom
Solar Radiation
Photosynthesis
Cell growth
Physical processes
Biological processes
© RGarreaud / DGF-UCh + CR2
Nutrients (P,N,Si)
Solar Radiation
Fresh Water
Atmosphere/Land Boundary Conditions
Deep Water
Fluxes
Ocean state:
• Temperature • Stratification ((z)) • Vertical velocity • Currents • pH
The awful 2016
Balance De Masa
GCMs (more than 40)
Socio-economic development pathways
How much CO2 will be emitted in the future ?
Climate Scenarios
+300
0
-300
°C mm/yr +4
0
-4
+1
0
-1
PSU
(a) Sea Surface Temperature (b) Precipitation (c) Surface salinity
Projected changes End of century under heavy emission scenarios
Least warming
Marked drying
Garreaud 2019, submitted to JFD
Southern SA Climate Change Projections Towards the end of century under A2 (RCP8.5)
Estudio DGF/UCh-CONAMA 2007 empleando PRECIS
Environmental extremes and change Social tensions
Local activities Climate variability Climate change
9 de Junio 2016 - Posición: 36.4°S 72.9°W 5 millas náuticas frente a la desembocadura
del río Itata - Región del Bio Bio
© Cesar Hormazabal
Medir, medir, medir…
Belmar et al. 2019???