expected social and economic impact and application · pdf fileexpected social and economic...

OECD/ICCP Foresight Forum

Expected Social and Economic Impact and Application of Cloud Computing in Japan

October 14, 2009

DR. Makoto YokozawaNomura Research InstituteProfessor of MOIS Labo., Kyoto Universityhttp://www.mois.asia/

BIAC ICCP Vice Chair.

http://www.mois.asia/

Copyright（C） 2009 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vélib’, “a Cloud of Bicycles”

in Paris

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Focused Issues

Different Styles of Clouds

Cloud Markets in Japan

Issues of Cloud Computing on Advanced Networked Society


Different styles of Clouds

Cost Benefit by Scale– Why use Cloud?

Layered Business Model– Cross Cutting the “Cloud”

– How to Earn Sufficient Scale of Cloud to be Cost Efficient ?

Roadmaps

4

Cross Layer Convergence among Software Industry

Network

Sector-independent Horizontal Cloud

Hardware

Middleware

Application

Solution

Network

Hardware

Middleware

Application

Solution

Vertical Cloud

Horizontal Cloud and Vertical Cloud

General Use Industry UseInter- Cloud Platforms

Amazon EC2

Google Apps

Salesforce,com

Financial Logistics

AuthenticationPlatform

PaymentPlatform

Hadoop Contents DeliveryPlatform

Windows Cloud

Oracle Cloud

Lay

ers

Horizontal CloudVertical

Cloud

GPSRFID

Sensor

NFC

HDTV


-2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Market

SaaSApplications

PaaS

HaaS

Cloud Computing Roadmap

SaaS Expansion

To BPO Services

HR/Finance/BICRM/SFA

Expansion of Paas/HaasEmerging of Paas/Haas

Sector Use of Cloud

More Industry UsePaaS,HaaS

SaaS

▲Amazon

EC2

▲SAP

▲Google

▲IBM Blue Cloud

▲Microsoft

▲Yahoo! ▲SLA

▲Development Tools

▲Google Gears

How to find the “Best Optimized Sharing of IT functions”– Horizontal?– Vertical?– Granurality?

Horizontal Cloud Vertica

l

Clo

ud

7


Cloud Market in Japan

Overall– Cloud Computing will be the next innovation in ICT based

Society and IT industry in Japan

– Applications are expected in 1) Anti-Global-Warming, 2) e-Governments, 3) Energy (Smart Power Grid), 4) Intelligent Traffic Systems and Other Society-based Information Systems

Market Forecasts– Expected market growth to be ~20B USD by 2012 ( ~ 100B

USD Global Market Forecasted)

– Core Cloud Business will be, 1)Data Center, 2)ASP-Saas Application, 3)Shared Outsourcing and 4) Server/Storage/Middleware/Network Services

Public Service Clouds for everyone and Digital ID issues– The Kasumigaseki Cloud for Ministries and Agencies

– National e-P.O. Box

– Clouds for SMEs

8


Size of the Cloud Computing Market

Forecasted scale of Japanese

domestic cloud market

Source: ASPIC

Domestic market will grow to nearly 2 trillion

yen by 2012

■The global cloud computing service market

projected to reach approx. ¥10 trillion in value in

2011 (Merrill Lynch estimated)

Reference: Global Internet router market forecast

Global router market expected to

triple between 2007 to 2013

Source: RHK forecast, 2008

Data Center Services

Server/Storage/Middleware + Network

Shared Use Outsourcing

ASP/SaaS Applications

in 100Million Yen

9


10

Kasumigaseki Cloud

✔Do not need to maintain each system individually

✔Computer resources can be used as much as needed

Gradually migrate to e-government using cloud computing

technologies

Drastic reduction of administrative costs and elimination of

waste(Drastic reduction of operational costs and developmental costs for government information systems)

Coordination of data

・・・

Coordination of data

Ministry

AMinistry

C

Ministry

D

Ministry

B

Development of the Kasumigaseki CloudS

yst

em A

1

Syst

em A

2

Syst

em A

3

Syst

em B

1

Syst

em B

2

Syst

em B

3

Syst

em C

1

Syst

em C

2

Syst

em C

3

Syst

em D

1

Syst

em D

2

Syst

em D

3


The National Electronic Post Office Box Plan

■ Procedures completed with one click

No need submit documents

■ Cost reduction (total for private/public

sectors):

・ Approx. \100 million for moving

・ Approx. \120 million for

retirement

Upon request, individuals (or businesses) are provided with a secure, exclusive account （electronic post office box） that can be used to view and manage personal information (e.g., pension records) in cyberspace and access a wide range of convenient, one-stop government services, achieving the world’s most effective “personal e-government.”

Establish a

government CIO◆ To oversee all aspects of e-

government

(The US Obama administration

has established the position of

Chief Technology Officer)

Pension records, etc. checked on paper

Submit documents for employee tax or employment procedures for each relevant local government or place of business

National and local

governments given equal

to discussion

development of a plan for

unified action◆ BPR of administrative

procedures (general

optimization)

Develop shared infrastructures

◆ Infrastructure using cloud technologies to be shared by the central and local governments

Improved convenienceDevelopment of

necessary infrastructure

What is the National Electronic Post Office Box Plan?

Numerous administrative procedures for major life events

Moving house:

・Up to 26 procedures & visits to 7

organizations

・ 13 documents to be submitted

Retirement:

・Up to 10 procedures & visits to 6

organizations

・ 15 documents to be submitted

■ Bulk transmission of employee data

■ One-stop processing of income tax filing

would reduce costs by approx. ¥170 million

Administrativ

e agencies

Electronic post

office box

Pensioner

City A

City B

City CCompany A

Localgovernment office

School

eｔｃ.Regional transport bureau

One-stop services

Transparent administration

Burdens on companies reduced

■ Records can be checked at any time

■ Eliminating social security/public services notifications would reduce costs by 460 billion yen

Now Future

Administrative Data Sharing Support

Center

Source: Outline of New Strategies for New Digital Age: Three-Year Emergency Plan (IT Strategic HQ, April 9, 2009)

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Public-use Cloud Cases in Japan

Kofu-City’s Taxpayers Refunding Management System

Japan Post Office’s Customer’s Inquiry Response

System

Japan Government’s “Eco-POINT” Application System

Force.com

(Platform as a Service)

Usability/Scalability/Security/Productivity/Integrity

UIBusiness

LogicsDatabase

CRM／SFAKofu City Japan Post Eco-Point

12


Maturity Model of Business IT Utilization

Introduction

of IT systems

13 Source) METI Japan

Cross-Company

Utilization of IT

Initial

Introduction of

IT

Intra-Enterprise

Utilization of IT

Intra-Division

Utilization of IT

Difficulty in

Cross-Division

Communication

Difficulty in

Cross-Company

Collaboration

Stage 1

Primary usage of IT

Stage 2

Partial optimization by IT within each division

Stage 3

Partial optimization by IT across a company

Stage 4

Total optimization across industry

Productivity Gain by

IT usage

70% of companies

In Stage1-2

30% of companies

In Stage 3 and 4

Cloud Computing

Service for SMEs

Expected

13


Issues of Cloud Computing on Advanced Networked Sciety

(Technology) NGN / Mobile Cloud

(System) Dependable Clouds

(Institutional) Law Systems and Rules

14


ＳＣＭ電子

申請

R&D on Secure Cloud Networking Technology

Establish a new market as early as possible to achieve high-security, high-speed

and advanced interoperability between clouds by addressing various issues that

currently exist in today’s cloud market.

User A User B

←Cloud networking environment using virtual servers, etc.

Other company’s

cloud

Health care MonitoringMusic

distribution

Elderly

careE-application

Security/Disaster

preventionMedical care Energy control

Home network

E-mail Groupware

Web conferencing

Storage

Word processing

ＥＲＰＳＦＡ

ＳＣＭ Finance/accounting

←Diverse application services

Finance/accounting

CRM Human resources

Other company’s

cloud

IP NGN

Cloud service interoperability technology

Other company’s

cloud

Other company’s

cloud

Core

network

Access network

Intelligent distribution processing technology

“Cloud-synch” IP NGN infrastructure technology

Develop platform technology for interoperability between clouds

Develop technology for real-time processing via interoperability in a distributed environment

Logistics

Transportation

ＳＣＭ

15

15


R&D on Dependable Data Center

and Related Technology

Conduct empirical research and develop various technologies for

the next generation data centers which achieve higher

dependability and security for business uses.

Air conditioning using the open airVerify dependability, cooling capacity and factors for the stable

operation

UPS with PhotovoltaicsVerify energy saving and performance of battery under

photovoltaics

Real time geographically distributed data back upVerify the load factor of network, usability and security

Visualization and integration of log data of serversVerify security of user data

Resource balancing technologyControl and re-arrangement of resource

Virtual resource management systemMaximize resource usage while keeping service level

(example)

16


Access

Network

Core

Network

Edge

NetworkServerDevice

Administrator

Console

Log and

Monitored data

Log and

Monitored data

Log and

Monitored data

Log and

Monitored data

Log and

Monitored data

Traceability for Problem Determination

…

Secure Storage

Secure Logging

Authentication / Authorization

Monitor/Measurement

Secure Boot Secure Boot Secure Boot

Base fe

atu

re

Device Network Server

Software System Dependability

and Cloud Computing

“Dependable Cloud”

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Notes for the Future

■ Global Rules need to be established

• Relationship between corporate compliance (auditing procedures) and external storage of data, etc.

• Ownership of intellectual property rights (e.g., data, service, log) on

clouds

• Advance notification of termination (cancellation) of services, return of

data to owners, proof of data deletion

• Need for the establishment of global rules on personal information

protection (e.g., operations based on the relevant use of personal

information policy)

Reference:

Interim Report : Strengthening Efforts to Enhance Dependability and

Security of Information System Software (May 2009)

– It is very important to enhance the SLA for cloud computing to be fully

utilized in enterprise activities in the future.

– It is important to form a certain social consensus on to what extent

dependability/security is ensured or accountability is fulfilled by the service

providers in accordance with the application of cloud computing, while

considering to what extent risks are accepted by the users.

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Notes for the Future

■ Harmonizing with Domestic RulesHow should we understand the relationship between global rules

and domestic laws, considering that data centers established to provide cloud services are subject to the laws of the countries in which they are located?

■ Other Important Issues• Interoperability• Dependability• Capacity Building (Fix/Wireless Broadband Network)

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