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Review of Recent Forest Foresight Work in Finland
Metsäalan ennakointikartoitus
Riitta Hänninen, Sini Niinistö & Tuula Nuutinen
Finnish Forest Research Institute
Eväitä metsäalan ennakointiin – seminaari ja työpaja, Tieteiden talo 30.3.2012
Contents
Project & Purpose
Forest sector foresight work has a long tradition
Recent literature reviews
How do we define foresight work?
Classification of the reports
Recent forest sector foresight studies and exercises – examples
Preliminary observations
Forest Sector Foresight Network ?
Project & Purpose Project:
• The project (1.2.‐30.4.2012) is financed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM) and the Finnish Forest Research Institute (Metla)
Purpose:
• To make a literature review by listing the recent publicly available reports, existing networks and possible new projects – with the focus in Finland
• To foster networking and information sharing by a workshop (30.3.2012) arranged together with MMM and the Ministry of Employment and the Economy (TEM).
The results are expected to benefit actors in and around the forest sector, e.g.:
• The planning of the new version for the Finnish National Forest Program (KMO) by MMM
• The new Strategic Programme for the Forest Sector (MSO) by the Ministry of Employment and the Economy (TEM)
Forest sector foresight work has a long traditionInternational foresight work, e.g.:
• e.g. FAO/UNECE (especially EFSOS), IIASA, etc., and national organizations
• forest resources, forest policy, production, trade flows, etc.
Finnish efforts, e.g.:
• Metla’s research originates from the 1970‐1980’s: forest resources, markets, forest sector. Long‐run and short‐run analyses.
• Future Forum of Forests (later Forest Sector Foresight Unit) the Universityof Eastern Finland (UEF). 2003‐2011. Co‐operation with the University of Turku (TUTU) .
• Forest industry firms: results are not always publicly available.
• Many other organizations, most of which deal with forest sector as one part of the Finnish economy in their forecasting analysis: e.g., government’s foresight reports, the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (Etla), consults (e.g., Pöyry), Pellervo Economic Research (PTT), Bank of Finland (BOF), etc.
Recent literature reviews
Niskanen, A., Donner‐Amnell, J., Häyrynen, S. ja Peltola, T. 2008. Metsän uusi aika. Kohti monipuolisempaa metsäalan elinkeinorakennetta. Metsäalan tulevaisuusfoorumin loppujulkaisu. Silva Carelica 53. 272 s.
Final Report of Future Forum of Forests – A Foresight Initiative to Study the Future of Forest Sector in Finland
– Reviews foresight reports published in the 2000’s
Pelli, P. 2008. Review on forest sector foresight studies and exercises. EFI Technical Report 29. 68 s.
Review of foresight studies and exercises. 2011. Annex 1 to Study on the continuation possibilities of the forest foresight activities in the University of Eastern Finland. EFI. 27 s.
– Based on information collected in COST strategic workshop series ”Foresight on Future demand for Forest‐based Products and Service” and on a web review of recent activities.
How we define foresight work?
In our literature review we understand foresight work widely
Futures studies, modelling scenarios, trend analysis, monitoring markets, strategic planning, making visions, shaping future, etc.
Foresight can be defined in many different ways, e.g. Gavigan et al. 2001:
– systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering
– from medium to long‐term vision building process
– aimed at present day decisions and mobilizing joint actions
Classification of reports
The classification of the literature and networks will be further developed during the project
In this presentation we have listed examples of studies and exercises in the following order: – Demand and production of Finnish forest‐based products and services
– Wood use and supply for industry and energy
– Global effects on forest sector
– Policies and strategies in forest sector
– Policies and strategies related to forest sector
Recent forest sector foresight studies and exercises – examples
Examples on foresight: Demand and production of Finnish forest‐based products and services
Category 2011 2010 2009 2008
Demand for •sawnwood and customer structure , 2020 (HY)•Paper and wood products in 2020 (Metla, VATT) •European level: products, forest resources, 2030, EFSOS II
X X
Forest industry in 2020. (Ruralia Institute) •Capacity cuts for paper and sawnwood• Capacity cuts for forest industry•Biorefineries producing wood based fuels‐‐estimated effects on the national and regional economy
X X
Technology: New products and services of forest industry , bioproducts and bioenergy. ‐‐ Research strategy 2030, Forest Cluster Ltd, VTT‐‐Future Forum of Forests (UEF)
X X
Demand for nature tourism and recreation (Metla, UEF) X X
Examples on foresight:wood use and supply for industry and energy
2011 2010 2009 2008
Industrial use of wood in 2020 – based on scenarios for paper and wood product industries’ production. (Metla, VATT)
X X
Forest‐based bioenergy in 2020• Potential for harvest and use of forest chips in energyproduction under different constraints•Economical feasibility of targets for forest‐based energy• Equipment and labour demands for increased use of forest chips (Metla, VTT, Metsäteho, Pöyry)
X X X X
Wood resources and supply (Metla, UEF)*Domestic wood supply in 2055 based on inventory and different cutting scenarios (demand and market driven)*Carbon sequestration in tree stock under differentcutting and climate scenarios until 2035 or 2053
X X
Private NI‐ forest owners‐ future structure (PTT) X
Examples on foresight: global effects on forest sector
2011 2010 2009 2008
Future forest sector, strategy, new scenarios for globaldevelopment, the value chage of wood and forests, bioenergy and new business possiblities. ”Metsän uusi aika”. (Forest Sector Foresight Unit, UEF)
X
Global developments, future forest sector, food, energy, land use, the strategic role of natural resources. ”Maailma haastaa” (Forest Sector Foresight Unit, UEF)
X
Future forest sector and forest know‐how. Challenges of climate change and changing globalmarkets. Finnishparliament, Committee for the future
X
Climate change – effects on ecosystem services, forestecosystems and forestryVACCIA , ISTO, FICCA(Previous programs FINADAPT, SILMU, FICCA)
X X
Examples on foresight: policies and strategies in forest sector Category 2011 2010 2009 2008
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry e.g.: Planning & evaluation strategic programs , KMO 2015 • Future forest sector and other rural livelihoods in 2020.• Alternative scenarios for KMO2015 preparationMETSO‐program* for biodiversity safeguarding 2008‐16
Ministry of Employment and the Economy, e.g. : Strategic program for the forest sector 2011‐2015 & National wood construction programme & the EU • Bioenergy 2020, labour and education. Metsäteho.•Competition: Forestry entrepreuneurship (Indufor), operation environment (MSO), etc.
X
X X
X
National strategy of natural resources• Background report, natural resources (SITRA, SMY)
X X
Research strategy Forest Cluster Ltd. 2030, ‐ based on: EVA, Capful global scenarios & workshops, etc.
X
* Together with the Ministry of Environment
Examples on foresight: policies and strategies related to forest sector
2011 2010 2009 2008
Global scenarios with effects on Finnish industries, EVA, Capful. International: New Global economy 2025, WB
X X
Climate and energy: ‐ Energy Visions 2050 (VTT)‐ Government foresight report on climate and energy policy – lowcarbon Finland 2050 ‐ Energy demand 2030, TEM‐Energy scenarios to fulfil international goals, 2012, 2020, 2050: economic, social and ecological effects. SITRA (Gaia Consulting Oy)International: ‐World Energy Outlook 2035, IEA
X X X
Future of Finland (SITRA, Otava)‐forests, water, food, living, building construction
X
Preliminary observations
The reports can be discussed, for example, in the light of the main drivers affecting the Finnish forest sector:
The global economic recession in 2009 finally showed the strong dependence of the Finnish forest sector on the international operating environment
– In recent publications global economic‐ and other developments, demand prospects for end‐products, etc. have been taken account more often than in the older reports. E.g., “Maailma haastaa” (2011, Forest Sector Foresight Unit , UEF) “Murroksen jälkeen” (2011, Metla).
The structures of demand for the end products are changing and the largest future demand and supply growth has moved to Asia.
– Customer behaviour in forest products market demand needs more attention
– Updating is also needed for the global trade flow analysis of forest products and roundwood after the recent economic recession.
Preliminary observations
Future customers and users, possibilities offered by new materials, services and business models, have become the drivers of the development
– The issues are taken account in the Forest Cluster Research Strategy and research on this area is going on e.g. in Metla
Environmental values and the multiple use of natural resources have important effects on the future forest sector development
– important goal is to develop possibilities for new entrepreneurship based on natural values, which is taken account in the strategic programs of the ministries, MMM &TEM
– Studies are going on e.g., in the field of nature tourism and forest health effects (e.g. in Metla)
– Research on social issues needs more attention
Forest sector foresight network ?The interest in foresight work has increased especially after 2009.
The literature review indicates:– There is a lot of forecasting and foresight already: discussions, analyses and modelling
covering diverse subject areas
– The number of actors is apparently large.
The Forest Sector Foresight Unit (the University of Eastern Finland , UEF). 2003‐2011.
A need for new arrangements for forest‐related foresight work .
The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM) and the Ministry of Employment and the Economy (TEM) have suggested a new Forest Sector Foresight Network
Forest Sector Foresight Network– Metla, the European Forest Institute (EFI) and the University of Eastern Finland (UEF) as
initiators
– This workshop to collect information on the needs and potential for wider collaboration.
Kiitos