Flight Simulators:

How Humans Can No Longer Tell The DifferenceBetween Reality & Illusion

Kartikhttp://survivalofthecraziest.wordpress.com

BarCampBangalore9, 2010-09-18Version 2.6

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However, the author (that’s me again) would appreciate acomment on his blog (or an email) if you’re reusing thispresentation, or parts of it, elsewhere. (In fact, what he wouldappreciate more is a discussion and/or debate, for it’s alwaysnice to know what others think about the convergence oftechnology and humankind).

Simulation (1/3)

WHAT: Imitation Representation of key characteristics, behaviors Using approximations, assumptions Physical or Abstract system

WHERE: Testing Training Education Entertainment (Video Games, Movies, Theme Parks) Scientific modeling Predict real effects of hypothetical conditions,

courses of actions

Simulation (2/3)

FOR SYSTEMS THAT: Are expensive Are dangerous Are specialized Have limited access to Simply don’t exist

SIMULATIONS YOU MAY ALREADY KNOW: Conway’s Game of LifeMonte Carlo Method Network Traffic Simulation ClimatePrediction.net The Sims (well, even Quake & Need for Speed) Logo (remember the Turtle?)Matlab & Simulink Traveling Salesman Problem (!)Maruti Driving School (!!)

Simulation (3/3)CHARACTERISTICS: Typically iterative Underlying mathematical model (Stochastic or Deterministic) Variables that can be played around withOften scalable Could be Real-Time and/or Distributed Involves computers, but not always (remember the DNA double-helix?) Involves humans? = Human-in-the-loop

JUDGED BY: Accuracy (fewer approximations) Level of Fidelity (= faithfulness of reproduction)

Typically adjustable Iteration speed (=Discrete Step [in a

Finite-State Machine]) Ease of interaction (the “playing around” part)

Flight Simulators

No wear & tear on actual aircraft “maneuver damage”

No fuel spent, no munitions fired No risk to life Training for non-replicable situations

Emergency landings Bad weatherMalfunctions Catastrophic failures And so on…

Mission Planning Crash investigation Decision-making abilities Inter-personal communication skills Addresses global pilot shortage Reduced carbon footprint

Qualification

CPT: Cockpit Procedures Trainer FNPT: Flight & Navigation Procedures Trainer

EASA Levels I through III FTD: Flight Training Device

FAA Levels 4 through 7 FFS: Full Flight Simulator

FAA Levels A through D, D = ZFT (possibly) FMS: Full Mission Simulator Related: Engine, Aerodynamics, Flight Systems Simulation

ALSO: Handling Fidelity: e.g. Cooper-Harper Rating ScaleQTG: Qualification Test Guide (baseline) Recurrent Qualification National Aviation Authority (NAA) in India is the DGCA (Directorate General of Civil Aviation)

Timeline

1920-60: Trivia 1960-70:

Link Trainer with replicated cockpits, analogue technology, rudimentary flight dynamics 6 DoF achieved by hexapod “Stewart Platform” Digital Computers creeping in (not PCs)

1980-90:Digital Computers universally used (later even PCs)Collimated Displays bring “depth perception” (optical infinity)Wide Angle FoV: Up to 240 deg with multiple projectors

2000: “Acceleration onset cueing” widely used Helicopter simulators Arrays of Desktop PCs – Unix, Linux, even Windows LCoS Projectors Cost reduction of 40:1

How Many, and Where 1250 Civil worldwide ? Military worldwide

COUNTRY-WISE: USA (550) > UK (75) > China (60) > Germany (50) = Japan (50) > France (40) Also in Dubai and India (2 facilities in Bangalore)

COMPANY-WISE: CAE, Canada (450+) -- (70% of Indian Airlines) Thales & predecessors, France (380) FSI, USA (280)

ALSO:Mechtronix, Canada Indira, Spain NASA, USA Elbit, Israel Northrop Grumman, USA Havelsan, Turkey

What They Can Simulate 6 DoFs (Pitch, Roll, Yaw, Heave, Sway, Surge) Flight Dynamics, Aircraft Performance (physics) Flight Control Surfaces (Ailerons, Elevators, Rudders…) Cockpit Instruments (Real-world equipment)

AFDX, LRUs, AC0 , A320 Communications & Navigation Equipment Control Loading, Motion & Vibration – Sensory Cues Aural Cues (Engine noise, Alarms, ATC radio comms…) Failures & Malfunctions (Equipment, Engine, Systems…)Weather Conditions (Precipitation, Clouds, Lightning…) Airport & Vicinity (Runway, ATC, Parking bays …) Terrain Features (Hills, Water bodies, Roads…) Ground buildings, Traffic, Even peopleOther Aircraft

The sea, the sky and everything in between

That’s Not All

Hostage Rescue behind enemy lines Air-to-Air Refueling Formation FlyingMedical Evacuation Ground Vehicle Simulators

Tanks, Trucks, Weapon Launchers…Weapon Ballistics & Trajectories Radar Modeling Ship & Submarine Simulators Landing on ships, Offshore oil rigs Urban Warfare, Anti-Terrorist Training Real-time Weather (Why only on your desktop?) Real-time Air Traffic (See liveatc.net, flightaware.com) Satellite Imagery

Not Even Close

IOS: Instructor Operating Station TrueAirport Services (CAE) Augmented Reality: e.g. CAE Augmented Visionics SystemWargaming & Battlespace Simulation Synthetic, Tactical Environments (STRIVE, VBS2) Networked Simulators C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance & Reconnaissance) – Net Centric Warfare UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) Simulators (even UAVs)OPV (Optionally Piloted Vehicles)

Digital Cockpit, Fly-by-Wire Estimated 50% US Army aircraft by 2025 Intelligent behaviors like Swarming

Simultation Entertainment

IN A THEATRE NEAR YOU: Augmented Reality (Avatar) Remember Virtual Reality, VRML? High-Definition Projectors CGI (Computer Generated Imagery)

IN A GAMING CONSOLE NEAR YOU: Accelerometers Joysticks Call of Duty: Modern Warfare America’s ArmyMicrosoft Flight Simulator (banned after 9/11) Open Source:

X-PlaneFlightGear

THEME PARKS & RIDES Such as Universal Studios’ Hollywood Theme Park

Typical FFS

HARDWARE:Motion Platform (Hydraulic/Electrical) Cockpit Replica

+ Controls (Joysticks, Pedals, Switches, …) + Instructor Station

Visual System Projection System (3…n Projectors)

SOFTWARE: Avionics Navigation Terrain Communications & SoundMotion & Control LoadingWeather SAFOR (optional) IOS, Record & Playback Host/Controller

Related Domains (1/3)

Modeling & Simulation Physics, Aerodynamics, Fluid Dynamics Scientific Computing Algorithms, Data Structures Artificial Intelligence

SAFOR: Semi-Automated Forces Expert Systems

Audio Programming (e.g. DirectX, and speech/text) Augmented Reality Databases, DBMS, Storage, SAN Distributed Computing, Grid, HPC, Parallel Programming Embedded Systems HCI (Human-Computer Interaction), MMI (Man-Machine Interface) HFE (Human Factors), UX (User Experience), Usability Information Architecture, Visualization

Related Domains (2/3)

Graphics – 2D & 3D (e.g. OpenGL)GUI (User Interfaces)Models, Textures, ArtworkFractals, Special EffectsGPU (Graphics Processing Units) & Projection Systems

Integration (Hardware-Software, Software-Software) Network Programming (Ethernet, USB I/O)Open Source, University Research Programming (lots of it)

in every possible language, from FORTRAN to .NETincluding Web-based interfaces

Scripting (again, lots, and in lots of languages)Optimization, Performance Improvement Cybernetics, Control Theory

Related Domains (3/3)

Software Architecture & DesignObject-Oriented Analysis & Design (OOAD) Componentry (COM, DCOM, CORBA…) Interfaces, Interoperability (API, ABI) Frameworks, Shared Services

Project Management / Program Management Agile/XP/Scrum Configuration Management Defect Prevention & AnalysisQuality Management

Testing, Debugging, Verification & Validation (V&V) System Administration (including Security & IDS) Marketing, Customer Service, Maintenance Contracts… Training Solutions (from Manuals to Modules) Technical Writing (I mean *really* technical)

ARINC family (Aeronautical Radio, Inc.)ARINC 429: Commercial avionics data busARINC 664 Part7: Avionics Full Duplex Network (AFDX)

CAN: Controller Area Network

HLA: High Level Architecture For platform-independent distributedcomputer simulations Uses RTI (Run-Time Infrastructure) IEEE 1516.* Standards Family

The usual (Ethernet, TCP/IP, UDP, SNMP…)

Protocols

Standards

DIS: Distributed Interactive Simulation IEEE 1278.* Standards Family Simulations involving inexpensive, general-purpose computers & hundreds of intelligent online players

RTCA (Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics) DO-178B: Software Considerations in Airborne Systems & Equipment Certification

MIL-STDs from US DoD:MIL-STD-1553B: Serial Data Bus for Military AvionicsMIL-STD-2525B: Common Warfighting Symbology

OpenGL (and derivatives) for graphics

SEDRIS (Synthetic Environment Data Representation & Interchange Specification)

Scope for Improvement

Acceleration Onset Cueing – not good enough for Fighters Synchronization between Visual & Motion cues

Simulator Sickness (= disorientation) Different reaction times System latency

Stroboscopic Effect Helicopters require huge Field of View Upper bound on computation power, hence Fidelity Integration

Exponential system complexity 3rd Party COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf) Deployment & Maintenance

Redundancy (at higher cost) & Downtime (physical limitations)

Related Organizations SISO: Simulation Interoperability Standards Organization I/ITSEC: Interservice/Industry Training, Simulation & Education Conference US DoD PEO-STRI (erstwhile STRICOM): Simulation, Training & Instrumentation Command

2009 Budget: $ 900 mn.2009 Spending: $ 3 bn. (And this is just the US…)

In India: Army SDD (Simulator Development Division) estd. 1991, Secunderabad

COMPANIES IN INDIA: CAE, Bangalore Zen Technologies, Hyderabad Alpha Technologies, BangaloreMoog, Bangalore Barco, New Delhi Rexroth Bosch, Bangalore And more…

“Are You Living in aComputer Simulation?”

Original paper by Prof. Nick Bostrom, Future of Humanity Institute, 2003 (simulation-argument.com) Abstract: At least one of the following propositions is true:

(1) Human species likely to go extinct before reaching “post-human” stage

(2) Any post-human civilization is extremely likely to run simulations of their evolutionary history

(3) We are most certainly living in such an ancestor-simulation

In other words: unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation

…which would require only a fraction of their computation resources

(…so why wouldn’t they do it?)

Related Ideas (1/2)

Self-Awareness, Consciousness: No complex system can explain it’s own working completely

Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle applied to self Evolution = Iteration?Max 13% of human brain used

The rest holds untapped information? From past incarnations (= iterations)? Debug symbols? Source code? About the future?

Where did your childhood fears come from? Sufficiently advanced technology indistinguishable from magic (or God)

What does a video game character perceive the player/user as?

Related Ideas (2/2)

Quantum Physics & Multiverses: we do it all the time Don’t need to simulate *everything* all the time

Varying levels of fidelity (from atoms to space) Universal laws of Physics: e=mc2, Planet orbits,

Speed of light (upper bound!) Recurring patterns of Mathematics: Normal

distribution, Pareto principle, Golden ratio (1.618) Natural, chaotic patterns are easy. Circles &

squares are difficult Cause &effect. Can it be anymore deterministic? Hence, complexity should not be a concern, given

enough computational power Just because our language doesn’t have the words for a concept, doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist

What Religion Tells Us About Simulation

End of the world & new beginning Every major world religion preaches it (2012 ?) Iteration? Someone else needs to use the sim lab time slot?

Every religion shares approximately the same “auspicious” dates, unless they were moved for political/power gains

Jesus Christ wasn’t born on December 25 (You and I weren’t there, so argument is pointless)

Bhagwad Gita Karmanyeva Adhikaraste Ma Faleshu Kadachan… =

Deterministic Causality? God’s name is indifferent from God = Proxy Design Pattern? SatYug, TretaYug, DwaparYug, Kalyug = Timeboxed states

with reconfigured attributes? Brahma, Vishnu, Mahesh = Constructor, Iterator, Destructor? TheChurchOfGoogle.org - Proof that Google is God And so on…

Further Reading

xamuel.com/simulationism--Further thoughts on simulation-argument.com

Wired 8.04: “Why the Future doesn’t need us”, by Bill Joy--Humans are almost an endangered species

“In the Mind of the Machine: The Breakthrough in A.I.”,by Prof. Kevin Warwick

--Self-conscious machines may have no motivation to treat their creators well

“The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology”, by Ray Kurzweil

--Exponential growth of technology will surpass human brain “The Belief Instinct: The Psychology of Souls, Destiny & the Meaning of Life”, by Jesse Bering

--God is an adaptive illusion “What do Computers tell us about God?: Reflections of a Computer Scientist”, by Hooman Katirai, MIT

--God is unknowable, not fully comprehendible, and we need intermediaries to interact with God

Thank You

“You don’t need eyes to see, you need vision”-Faithless

Look up “Living Earth Simulator” Mining economic, environmental & health data to

create a model of the planet in real time

CONTACT: Blog: http://survivalofthecraziest.wordpress.com Email: survivalofthecraziest<at>gmail.com