french experience on long term energy & climate …french experience on long term energy &...
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Frenchexperienceonlongtermenergy&climateplanning
PresentationtotheVisionCommittee,MOEJ,Tokyo,29November2016
RichardLavergne,SeniorAdvisortotheGeneralDirectorforEnergyandClimateandtotheHighCommissionerforSustainableDevelopment,
FrenchMinistryforEnvironment,EnergyandtheSea
FrancewithintheEU
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Population(1/1/2016)- EU28:510M- France:67M
GDPpercapita(marketprices)(2014)- EU28:€27,500- France:€32,300
TotalFinalEnergeticConsumption(2014)- EU28:1,062Mtoe- France:142Mtoe
EUClimateAction• KeyEUtargetsfor2020
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2020/index_en.htm
• 20%cutinGHGemissionscomparedwith1990(-10%fromnonEU-ETSsectorsand-21%fromtheEU-ETS)
• 20%oftotalenergyconsumptionfromrenewables• 20%increaseinenergyefficiency
• KeyEUtargetsfor2030http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2030/index_en.htm
• Atleast40%cutinGHGemissionscomparedwith1990(-30%fromnonEU-ETSsectorsand-43%fromtheEU-ETS)
• Atleast27%oftotalenergyconsumptionfromrenewables• Atleast27%increaseinenergyefficiency
• Long-termgoal• By2050,theEUaimstocutitsGHGemissionssubstantially– by80-95%comparedto1990levelsaspartoftheeffortsrequiredby
developedcountriesasagroup• TurningEuropeintoahighlyenergyefficientandlow-carboneconomywillalsoboosttheeconomy,createjobsandstrengthen
Europe'scompetitiveness
• Actiontowardsclimatetargets• TheEUispursuingitsclimatetargetsthroughacombinationoffinancialsupport andregulation
• Adaptingtoclimatechange• TheEUCommissionhasadoptedanEUAdaptationStrategy andwantsallitsMStoadoptnationalplansby2017
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-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
LU SE DK FI DE FR UK NL AT BE IT IE ES CY MT PT EL SI CZ EE SK LT PL HR HU LV RO BG EU
MemberStateGHGemissionlimitsin2030comparedto2005(nonEU-ETS)
EUReferenceScenarioto2050
• EU28GrossInlandConsumption(Mtoe) • EvolutionofCO2emissions(Mt)bysector
4Energy,transportandGHGemissions- Trendsto2050:lasteditionpublishedinJuly2016http://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling
Source:PRIMES
TheFrenchenergysituationinanutshell
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Grossinlandconsumption:257Mtoe Totalfinalenergyconsumption:162Mtoe
Grosselectricitygenerationbyfuel:569TWh
Datafor2015
67%fossil
Nationalstrategyforecologicaltransitiontowardssustainabledevelopment(SNTEDD)
• Latesteditionwww.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/National-Strategy-of-Ecological,44461.html adoptedbytheFrenchgovernmentinFebruary2015fortheperiod2015-2020toovercome4keyenvironmentalchallenges:• Climatechange• Acceleratedlossofbiodiversity• Resourcescarcity• Increasedhealthrisks
• Unifyingandcoherentframeworkformanythematicorsectoralstrategies(biodiversity,adaptation,agriculture,floodrisks,…)
• Policiesguidelinestoreconcilelong-termandshort-termintereststhrough9cross-cuttinggoalsandpriorities
• Setofindicatorstomonitor/followtheimpactoftheSNTEDD:http://www.statistiques.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/indicateurs-indices/li/indicateurs-nationaux-transition-ecologique-vers.html
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NationalDebateonEnergyTransitionin2013• FourpreliminarypathwayswereissuedattheendoftheNationalDebate
Source:PatrickCriqui,CNRS(viaIDDRI)7
Frenchlegislationforenergytransition(lowcarbonsociety):3majorimpetus
• NationalDebateonEnergiesand“POPE”SteeringLawof13July2005• CutofGHGemissionsof75%by2050(3%/y)andsupport-50%atWorldlevel• Decreaseofthefinalenergyintensityof2%/yfrom2015and2.5%/yfrom2030
• “Grenelle del’Environnement”Initiative in2007-2010• “Grenelle 1”SteeringLaw#2009-967of3/8/2009
• Ambitioustargetsforbuildings(50kWh/m²/yearfornewbuildings,-38%energycons.forexistingbuildings,energyauditsofStatebuildings,…)andtransportation
• Applicationof”Factor4”andoftheEU“3x20%”policy• “Grenelle 2”Act#2010-788of12/7/2010toimplement“Grenelle 1”• YearlyFinanceLaw:CITE,Eco-PTZ+,bonus-malus,etc.• EnergyR&D:PIA,Competitivenesspoles,…
• EnergyTransitiontowardsGreenGrowth:on-goingprocesssince2012• NationalDebateonEnergyTransitionfromNov.2012toJuly2013• EnvironmentalConferenceofSept.2013withPresidentHollandedeclaration• EnergyTransitiontowardsGreenGrowthAct(LTECV)#2015-992of17/8/2015• YearlyFinanceLawsfor2015,2016and2017
Moreandmore:- InvolvementofNGO’s- ImprovementofEEand
developmentofrenewables- Localauthoritiesempowerment
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Manyquantitativeobjectivesto2030and2050inLTECV,amongwhich:
Carboncomponenttrajectoryupto
€100/tCO2in2030
€
9DuringtheCOP22,theFrenchPresidentofFranceannouncedhiswishthatFrancereachcarbonneutralityby2050
Threemaintoolstokeepmomentumintheenergytransition,asmentionedintheLTECV
• NationalStrategyforlow-carbondevelopment(SNBC)2015-2028(*)• TheGovernmentimposed,bysuccessive5-yearsperiods,3GHGemissionsceilings(“CarbonBudgets”)thatFrance
shouldnotexceed• Inordertomeetthiscommitment,theSNBCissetupfor3successive5-yearsperiods• Allfuturenationalpolicies(forinstancetransport,spatialandinfrastructureplanningandenergyproduction)should
takeitintoaccount
• Multi-annualProgrammingforEnergy(PPE)2016-2023(**)• Governmentalactionplanthatdefineditsprioritiestosupportvariousformsofenergyorenergysavings,inlinewith
theSNBC:• Energyefficiencyandrenewables• Securityofsupply• Balancebetweensupplyanddemand
• PPEissetupfor2successive5-yearsperiods
• Empowermentofregionalandlocalauthorities• Includingvariousstrategic/actionplanningterritorialexercises(SRADDET/SRCAE,PCAET,SRB,S3RENR,TEPCV,…)
(*)Adoptedbydecreeof18November2015(**)Adoptedbydecreeof27October2016 10
TheFrenchNationalLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy(SNBC)(1/8)
• SNBCdefinesstrategicorientationstoimplementGHGemissionsreductionineachsectorofactivityinaccordancewithLTECV• Basedonastudymadefrommid-2014tomid-2015todevelopGHG/energyscenariosto2035:WEMandWAMscenarios(*)• AssociatedwithCarbonBudgets,i.e.ceilings/upperlimitsofGHGemissionsatnationallevel,of5yearseach,until2028,withindicative splitbysectorofactivity• BasedontheseCarbonBudgets,itiseasiertoassessthetendencyforthedecreaseofGHGemissions(independentlyofweatherconditions,geopoliticalcrisis,…)
• Scenarios,CarbonBudgetsandSNBCshouldbeupdatedandextendedbyJuly2019
(*)WEM=WithExistingMeasures(BaU Scenario)WAM=WithAdditionalMeasures(ReferenceScenario)
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TheFrenchNationalLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy(SNBC)(2/8)
• PrimaryconsumptionoffossilfuelsinWEMandWAMscenarios
• GHGemissionsinWEMandWAMscenarios
12Seewww.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/scenarios-a-l-horizon-2020-2030.htmlWEM=WithExistingMeasures(BaU Scenario)WAM=WithAdditionalMeasures(ReferenceScenario)
129 126 126 128 132129119
106 109
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0
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2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mtoe
FossilprimaryenergyconsumptioninWEMandWAM2scenarios
WEM
WAM2
-30%
551
478 468 465 467 470
556517
457
407366
317286
0
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1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MtCO2eq
GHGemissionsinWEMandWAM2scenarios
WEM
WAM2
TheFrenchNationalLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy(SNBC)(3/8)
• Acontinuousprocessofupdatingandextension
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TheFrenchNationalLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy(SNBC)(4/8)
• Concertationprocessallover2015• Communicationwithvariouscommittees,incl.• EnvironmentalAuthority• CETE=Committeeofexpertsforenergy
transition:8academics• CNTE=NationalCouncilforEcological
Transition:50delegates• Severaldedicatedmeetingsbothonthescenarios
andthedraftSNBC• Consultationofthepublic
• PublicationofSNBC• Decreeof18November2015
https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jo_pdf.do?id=JORFTEXT000031493783 togetherwithareportprovidingorientationsandrecommendationswww.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/SNBC_Strategie_Nationale_Bas_Carbone_France_2015.pdf andEnglishsummary:www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/15147-2_strategie-bas-carbone_4p_GB.pdf
• CNTE• ChairedbytheFrenchMinisterofEnvironment,EnergyandtheSea
• Composition:
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TheFrenchNationalLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy(SNBC)(5/8)
Transport(28%)
Building /Dwelling(20%)
AgricultureForestry(19%)
Industry(18%)
Energybranch(12%)
Waste(4%)
TargetsReduceGHGemissionsby29%bythe3rd carbonbudgetperiod(2024-2028)comparedto2013andbyatleast2/3betweennowand2050
Reduce emissionsby54%bythe3rd carbonbudgetperiodcomparedto2013andbyatleast87%by2050 +Cutenergy consumptionby28%by2030comparedto2010
Reduceagricultural emissionsbymorethan12%bythe3rdcarbonbudgetperiodcomparedto2013andby50%throughtheagro-ecologyproject
Cutemissionsby24%bythe3rd carbonbudgetperiodandby75%betweennowand2050
Keepemissionsbelowthe2013levelduringthe1st3carbonbudget periodsandreduceenergyproduction-relatedemissionsof96%by2050vs.1990
Reduceemissionsby33%bythe3rd carbonbudgetperiod
MeansEnergyefficiencyofvehicles(2l/100 kmforvehiclessoldin2030)
Implementthe2012thermalregulationandanewone
Increasetheimplementation oftheagro-ecologyproject
Manage thedemandforenergyandmaterialsperproduct
Reduceenergydemandandcarbonfootprint
Reducefoodwasteandpreventproductionofwaste
Lowcarbonsupplysystems(vehiclequotasinpublicfleets,electricchargingstations,…)
Renovateentirelythestockofbuildingstohighstandardsofefficiencyby2050(BBC)
Promoteaverysignificantincreaseintheamountofthewoodharvested
Promotecirculareconomy
Continue todeveloprenewables
Increaserecyclingandsorting
Demandside(cityplanning,teleworking,occupancyratein vehicles,…)
SpeedupDSM(eco-design,Linky,etc.)
ReducetheshareofGHGintensiveenergysources
Improvetheflexibilityoftheenergysystem
Reducediffusemethaneemissions
Promote alternativestoprivatecars
Ultimatelystopincinerationwithoutenergyrecovery
Encouragemodalshift 15
TheFrenchNationalLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy(SNBC)(6/8)
• Carbonbudgets:anillustrationwithacompatibleGHGemissiontrajectory
• Indicativesectoralsplitofthe3firstcarbonbudgets(incl.overseasterritories)
WasteAgricultureEnergybranchIndustryDomestic&TertiaryTransport
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TheFrenchNationalLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy(SNBC)(7/8)
• GHGemissions(andenergy)evolutionspersectorwithrespecttotheBaU scenario
• Yearlyaverageemissions
GHG(energy) 1st CarbonBudget(2015-2018)
2nd CarbonBudget(2019-2023)
3rd CarbonBudget(2024-2028)
Waste -8% -14% -21%
Agriculture -5% -8% -11%
Energybranch -14% -19% -28%
Industry -4%(-5%) -8%(-8%) -16%(-13%)
Domestic&Tertiary -8%(-4%) -20%(-10%) -34%(-17%)
Transport -7%(-5%) -18%(-12%) -27%(-18%)
TOTAL -7% -15% -23%
Yearlyaverageemissions(MtCO2eq)
1990 2013 1st Carbon Budget(2015-2018)
2nd Carbon Budget(2019-2023)
3rd Carbon Budget(2024-2028)
EU-ETS(excl.internationalflights) 119 110 #N/A #N/A
Othersectors 373 332 #N/A #N/A
TOTAL 552 492 442 392 358 17
TheFrenchNationalLowCarbonDevelopmentStrategy(SNBC)(8/8)
• SNBCwasassessedforitsmacro-economicimpactswiththe Three-MEmodel(ADEME&OFCE),seewww.development-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Thema-SNBC.pdf (Frenchonly)
• ComparisonwithaBaU scenariogivesthefollowingresultsoverthenext2decades(2015-2035):• ImpactonGDP=+1.6pointin2035vs.BAU(mainlybecauseofinvestmentsinnewbuildingsover2017-2021)• Jobscreation=+400,000(netcumulativegain)in2035vs.BAU
In%
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Multi-annualProgrammingforEnergy(PPE)(1/5)
• LTECVmergedseveralplanningdocumentsforvariousenergyforms(electricity,gasandheat)intoasingleinstrument,PPE,andwidenstheirscopetoincludeconsumption,networksandsecurityofsupply
• PPEdefinesprioritiesofpublicactioninanintegratedandglobalenergyapproachinordertoachievetheLTECVgoals
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Multi-annualProgrammingforEnergy(PPE)(2/5)
• PPEanalysisincludesvariousenergydemandscenariostakingintoaccountdifferentassumptions(macroeconomicoutlooks,demographicforecastandenergyefficiencyoutlooks)
• Twomainscenarioswereconsideredforenergydemand• PPEReferenceScenario:-13%in2023(comparedto2012),thatiscompatiblewithLTECVtargetof-20%in2030
• PPEsensitivityanalysis:-3%in2023(comparedto2012)
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2012 2018 2023 2030
Mtep
Référence2012 Variante Scénarioderéférence Objectif203020
Multi-annualProgrammingforEnergy(PPE)(3/5)
Energyefficiency Renewables Cleaner mobility Securityofsupply Longerterm
Targets (2023)-12% forthefinalenergeticconsumption-23%fortheprimaryconsumptionoffossilfuels(inlinewith-30%in2030)
+70%for installedcapacityofelectricrenewablesand+35%forrenewableheat,comparedto2014(inlinewiththeglobalobjectiveof+32%in2030)
Cutenergyconsumptionintransportof13%
Demandsideresponse upto6GW(incl.erasing)Preservehighlevelreliabilitystandards(electricity,gas)
Hydraulicstorageof1to2GWbetween2025and2030
Means(2023)Tocutenergyconsumptioninbuildingsof 15%by2023
Scheduleofcallsfortenders 2.4 millionEVsandplug-inhybridvehicles
Nonewcoal plantbutCCSready
Deploymentofsmartgrids
Thermalrenovationof500,000dwellings/y from2017
Simplifications Installationof1millionchargingpointsby 2020
CapacitymechanismtobelaunchedinJanuary2017
Supportofstoragesolutions
Financingtools Participatory finance(crowdfunding)
3%truckstobesuppliedwithNGVand20%bio-NGVwithinglobalNGVconsumption
Ensureavailabilityofgasstorageinfrastructuresanddevelopmentofgasinterruptibility
Supportofauto-consumptionandauto-production
Whitecertificates Extendheatfunding Advancedbiofuels Ensureaneffectivedistributionofoilstrategicstocks
Engage-10to-65TWh ofnuclearpowerby2023
Etc. Etc. Etc. Etc. 21
Multi-annualProgrammingforEnergy(PPE)(4/5)
• AlmostthesameconcertationprocessasforSNBC• Communicationwithvariouscommittees,incl.
• EnvironmentalAuthority• CETE=Committeeofexpertsforenergytransition:8academics• CNTE=NationalCouncilforEcologicalTransition:50delegates• Consultationofthepublic
• PublicationofPPE• Decreeof27October2016togetherwithareportprovidingorientationsandrecommendationswww.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/PPE-complet-1.pdf (Frenchonly)
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Multi-annualProgrammingforEnergy(PPE)(5/5)
• ThetwomainPPEscenarioswereassessedfortheirmacro-economicimpacts,thesamewayasSNBC,seewww.development-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/7_-_Volet_Impacts_economiques_et_sociaux.pdf (Frenchonly)
• ComparisonofthePPEReferenceScenariowithaBaU onegivesthefollowingresultsover2014-2030:• ImpactonGDP=+1.1pointin2030vs.BAU(mainlybecauseofinvestmentsinnewbuildings,asforSNBC)• Jobscreation=+280,000(netcumulativegain)in2030vs.BAU
In%
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NationalStrategyforEnergyResearch
• SameprinciplesofconcertationprocessasforSNBCandPPE• InvolvementofANCRE,NationalAlliancefor
CoordinationofEnergyResearchwww.allianceenergie.fr• ConformitywithSNBCandPPE• CoherencewiththeEUSET-Planhttps://setis.ec.europa.eu
• Mainobjective:toidentifyandtostructurebigissuesandchallengesinresearchandinnovation,atvarioustimehorizonsupto2050,tomeetLTECVgoals• Decisionsupporttoolforthegovernmentrather
thanaprogrammingdocument• Forinstance:
• TodevelopatransversalapproachforEnergyR&Dinordertobettertakeintoaccountenvironmentalissues,humanitiesandsocialsciencesanddigitalchallenges
• Topreparenewtoolstomanageflexibilityandsophisticationoftheenergysystematdifferenttimehorizons
• FrenchgovernmentalexpensesforenergyR&D(inM€)
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Budg
et d
épen
sé (M
€)
Domaines de recherche transverses et non classésEnergies fossilesNouvelles technologies de l'énergieEnergie nucléaire
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Budg
et d
épen
sé (M
€)
Domaines de recherche transverses et non classésEnergies fossilesNouvelles technologies de l'énergieEnergie nucléaire
OtherfieldsandtransversalresearchFossilfuelsNewenergytechnologiesNuclear
Carbonpricing:CarbontaxandEU-ETSarecoexistinginFrance
• FrenchCarbonTaxsince2014• Growthiscompensatedbytaxcutinfavourofenergytransition(taxcredit,…)
• EU-ETS• Operatesinthe28EUcountries+• LimitsGHGemissionsfrom:
• Approximately11,000energyintensiveinstallationsandmanufacturingindustrysectors
• Operatorsofflights• Capandtrade:intheperiod2013-2020,thecapisreducedby1.74%everyyear(i.e.-21%in2020comparedto2005)
• Priceiscurrentlybetween4and6€/tCO2
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
en€/tCO2
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ImportanceofcarbonpricingintheEU(1/2)• FranceisinfavourofabetterEUcarbonpricingbecausethecurrentpricesignalisnotenoughandtoovolatiletosupport
cleanenergyandtogetprogresstowardstheatleast-40%GHGEU2030target(-30%nonEU-ETSsectorsand-43%EU-ETS)
• Negotiationsareunderwaybetweenthe28MSswithproposalssuchas“pricecorridor”,“carbonfloor”,benchmarks,etc.
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ImportanceofcarbonpricingintheEU(2/2)• Ex-postevaluationoftheimpactoftheEU-ETS,Renewable,TaxationandotherpoliciesonCO2emissionsfromcombustion
• Climatepolicyworksasitreducesemissionsandstimulatestheuptakeofcleantechnologies
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Integrationoftheclimateriskwithintheannualreportingofcompaniesandinstitutionalinvestors
• Forinstitutionalinvestors• Since2012,portfoliomanagementcompaniesandfundmanagementcompanieshavetoreporton
environmental,socialandgovernance(ESG) criteriathattheyuseintheirinvestmentpolicy(supporttoSociallyResponsibleInvestment)
• Decree#2015-1615of10December2015setupthe“EnergyandEcologicalTransitionfortheClimate”governmentallabel• 9 fundshavebeenlabelledsofar,foratotalamountofassetsundermanagementofb€1.2
• Decree#2015-1850of29December2015mademandatoryforlargeinstitutionalinvestorstoreportannually,from1st January2017,onthemeanstocontributetotheenergyandecologytransitions,including:• Carbonfootprintofportfolios• Greenpartoftheirinvestments• Lowcarbondevelopmentstrategysetuptofightagainstclimatechange
• Frenchpublicfinancialinstitutions(CDC,AFD,BPI,…)havebeenencouragedtolaunchgreenbondsthatwouldbededicatedtoenvironmentalinvestments
• TheFrenchgovernmenthasannounceditsintentiontolaunchasovereigngreenbond• Forcompanies
• Since2001,Frenchlegislationhasrequiredlargecompaniestoprovideextrafinancialreportingonenvironmental,socialandgovernance(ESG)aspects,includingrisksanduncertainties
• Decree#2016-1138of19August2016mademandatoryforthemtoreportannually,from1st January2017,onsignificantitemsofGHGemissionsduetothecompaniesactivities,includingthroughtheuse ofgoodsandservicesthattheyproduce
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Thankyouforyourattention!MoredetailsontheMinistrywebsitewww.developpement-durable.gouv.fr
andinthelasteditionofthe“Panorama”www.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/Sortie-du-rapport-Panorama.html
E-mail:[email protected]
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