frost & sullivan mobilemonday 13 feb 2012 m-commerce: everything online
TRANSCRIPT
“We accelerate Growth”
FEBRUARY 13, 2012
“M-Commerce: Everything Online”
Where we are now…
Everybody needs one…
Recent development…
•In 2010, the wireless SIM-based penetration rate was 97.3%
•Average Indonesian held 1.68 SIM cards, resulting in a unique
subscriber penetration rate of only ~60%
•Only ~13% of 3G enable smartphone from the total handset
market*
• Service providers bundling end user devices with subscription
plans with lowering subscription fee
•Trending down internet-able device price such as dongle,
netbook, tablets
*Nomura, September 2011
37% Expected internet penetration rate in Indonesia by 2015 from
14% in 2010
53% Indonesian mobile internet users aged between 18 and 27
633
Indonesian mobile internet user rank highest among the world
in mobile browsing intensity (pages per month per person)
107% Expected mobile penetration rate in 2015 from 97% in 2010 (SIM)
80% Mobile phones sold in 2010 were internet enabled
What we are projected going forward…
Source: Frost & Sullivan
6
Near saturating market for penetration rate coupled with reducing ARPU is limiting the revenue growth
If we see Indonesia in the Region… Double digit growth a thing of the past
Australia
Bangladesh
Cambodia
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
New Zealand
PakistanPhilippines
SingaporeSouth Korea
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0%
2010 M
obile
Revenue C
AG
R (%
)
2010 Mobile Penetration Rate (%)
Mobile Revenue & Penetration Rate APAC, 2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Mobile R
evenue C
AG
R (
2009-2
015)
Where we are now …. Critical mass is achieved with slowing-down growth rate
111.9
153.8
Base Year (2011) Projections (2016)
Mobile Subscription
Penetration Rate - SIM (%)
CAGR: 6.57%
12
4
Base Year (2011) Projections (2016)
Mobile Subscriber Growth Rate (%)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
20.8
61.2
Base Year (2011) Projections (2016)
11.2
5.4
Base Year (2011) Projections (2016)
…And what next…. Industry needs other source of growth where “voice” is tapering down
Mobile Revenue Annual Growth Rate (%)
Mobile Data Penetration Rate (%)
CAGR: 24.09%
Source: Frost & Sullivan
“Everything” is online… are we ready? As of 2010, wireless broadband penetration rate of approx. 2.5% but is expected to
reach around 79% by 2015 driven mainly by “small-screen” mobile
50
61
74
90
105
2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E
20.1%
CAGR
Internet Penetration (Mn)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
37.9%
13.3%
1.9%
Singapore Malaysia Indonesia
2010
Indonesia amongst others in the Region While lags behind other countries, coverage expansion & speed
improvement in major cities are increasing
Source: Frost & Sullivan, ITU, Internetstats, AMDA
1,086 1,071 518
4,990
7,792 7,139
Singapore Malaysia Indonesia
Avg Kbps Peak Kbps
BB Penetration (fixed & wireless
dongles as % of pop)
Mobile Data Average & Peak
Broadband Speed (Kbps)
While fixed and mobile internet penetration is still relatively
low, we are now can find many hotspots in metropolitan areas
– most of them are free for use
So What is it for Us?
M- Commerce Overview
Broadband Penetration: 6%
(June, 2011)
Internet Penetration: 16%
(June, 2011)
GDP per Capita (2010) : US Dollar 2885
Indonesia
33.74%
18.69%
16.86%
15.20%
9.05%
5.45%
1.00%
XL Axiata
Telkomsel
Telkomsel Internet
Axis
Indosat
Hutchison - 3
CDMA Operators
Mobile Ads/ Content Carriers
27.89%
25.51%
24.62%
9.50%
7.49% Nokia S40
Symbian OS
MTK / Nucleus OS
Sony Ericsson OS
Samsung OS
Blackberry OS
Others
29.74%
26.86%
23.24%
10.58%
5.31%
3.86%
0.40% 0.01%
Mobile Content
Glamour & Dating
Entertainment & Lifestyle
myGamma & Community
Search/ Portal/ Services
Information
Premium Portals
Others
Handset OS
Mobile ads medium/
channel
Source:Buzz City “ A QUARTERLY BRIEFING ON THE MOBILE INTERNET” Oct 2011
The Journey… to “Everything Online” Internet development in Indonesia is quite recent – spurred by social networking
“Need to be connected”
To contact somebody…
To make appointment…
To find information….
“Social Media”
To share…
To express opinions…
To be a community member…
“Mobile Commerce”
To offer goods…
To find merchandise…
To advertise…
To do payments…
How big is the market… Indonesia has a very small online market revenue but potential for growth
is there…
$8, 39%
$2, 7%
$11, 54%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0.1
1.03
67%
CAGR
Online Commerce Market Size, 2010 (USD Mn) Mobile Commerce Revenue Projection
(USD Bn)
Ads
Gaming
Video/music
• Indonesia potentially reach 10 times its current m-commerce industry
value by 2015 with the proper ecosystem and infrastructure,
technology, & regulatory
Source: Frost & Sullivan
8
125
How big is the market… Indonesia’s growth will likely be fuel by rise in mobile internet users
39.6
145.2
Internet Users Forecast (Mn) Online Ad Market Size Forecast (USD Mn)
29.7%
73.3%
M-Payment Operator Revenue(USD Bn)
0.5
2.1
33.2%
CAGR
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2010 2015 2010 2015
Source: Frost & Sullivan
For Indonesia alone, the impression is the world’s second largest, after India, with
a total impression of 3.76 billion and is one of four countries that have advertising
impressions in total more than 1 billion in one quarter (BuzzCity, July 18th).
Based on Indonesia mobile-centric market, “mobile content” is still limited by bandwidth availability
- they fit more into small-screen applications rather than band-width hungry apps.
Some key takeaway…
Big screen vs. small
Indonesia broadband market is predominantly “mobile” centric to access
voice & data content. Rich content is more likely goes through big screens.
RBT, video clip, games are booming within mobile ecosystem while video
streaming is more through PC/ netbook.
Full video vs. clips
Current market is keen of video clip, music, & games download through
mobile phones while full video is not feasible due to sub-optimal network
quality (long-wait or fail to load) i.e. high bandwidth/ capacity requirements
to have ideal ecosystem for streaming rich content
Rise on digital ads
See you somewhere…online