frost & sullivan mobilemonday 13 feb 2012 m-commerce: everything online

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“We accelerate Growth” FEBRUARY 13, 2012 “M-Commerce: Everything Online

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Page 1: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

“We accelerate Growth”

FEBRUARY 13, 2012

“M-Commerce: Everything Online”

Page 2: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

Where we are now…

Page 3: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

Everybody needs one…

Page 4: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

Recent development…

•In 2010, the wireless SIM-based penetration rate was 97.3%

•Average Indonesian held 1.68 SIM cards, resulting in a unique

subscriber penetration rate of only ~60%

•Only ~13% of 3G enable smartphone from the total handset

market*

• Service providers bundling end user devices with subscription

plans with lowering subscription fee

•Trending down internet-able device price such as dongle,

netbook, tablets

*Nomura, September 2011

Page 5: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

37% Expected internet penetration rate in Indonesia by 2015 from

14% in 2010

53% Indonesian mobile internet users aged between 18 and 27

633

Indonesian mobile internet user rank highest among the world

in mobile browsing intensity (pages per month per person)

107% Expected mobile penetration rate in 2015 from 97% in 2010 (SIM)

80% Mobile phones sold in 2010 were internet enabled

What we are projected going forward…

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Page 6: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

6

Near saturating market for penetration rate coupled with reducing ARPU is limiting the revenue growth

If we see Indonesia in the Region… Double digit growth a thing of the past

Australia

Bangladesh

Cambodia

China

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

New Zealand

PakistanPhilippines

SingaporeSouth Korea

Sri Lanka

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0%

2010 M

obile

Revenue C

AG

R (%

)

2010 Mobile Penetration Rate (%)

Mobile Revenue & Penetration Rate APAC, 2010

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Mobile R

evenue C

AG

R (

2009-2

015)

Page 7: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

Where we are now …. Critical mass is achieved with slowing-down growth rate

111.9

153.8

Base Year (2011) Projections (2016)

Mobile Subscription

Penetration Rate - SIM (%)

CAGR: 6.57%

12

4

Base Year (2011) Projections (2016)

Mobile Subscriber Growth Rate (%)

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Page 8: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

20.8

61.2

Base Year (2011) Projections (2016)

11.2

5.4

Base Year (2011) Projections (2016)

…And what next…. Industry needs other source of growth where “voice” is tapering down

Mobile Revenue Annual Growth Rate (%)

Mobile Data Penetration Rate (%)

CAGR: 24.09%

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Page 9: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

“Everything” is online… are we ready? As of 2010, wireless broadband penetration rate of approx. 2.5% but is expected to

reach around 79% by 2015 driven mainly by “small-screen” mobile

50

61

74

90

105

2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

20.1%

CAGR

Internet Penetration (Mn)

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Page 10: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

37.9%

13.3%

1.9%

Singapore Malaysia Indonesia

2010

Indonesia amongst others in the Region While lags behind other countries, coverage expansion & speed

improvement in major cities are increasing

Source: Frost & Sullivan, ITU, Internetstats, AMDA

1,086 1,071 518

4,990

7,792 7,139

Singapore Malaysia Indonesia

Avg Kbps Peak Kbps

BB Penetration (fixed & wireless

dongles as % of pop)

Mobile Data Average & Peak

Broadband Speed (Kbps)

While fixed and mobile internet penetration is still relatively

low, we are now can find many hotspots in metropolitan areas

– most of them are free for use

Page 11: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

So What is it for Us?

Page 12: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

M- Commerce Overview

Broadband Penetration: 6%

(June, 2011)

Internet Penetration: 16%

(June, 2011)

GDP per Capita (2010) : US Dollar 2885

Indonesia

33.74%

18.69%

16.86%

15.20%

9.05%

5.45%

1.00%

XL Axiata

Telkomsel

Telkomsel Internet

Axis

Indosat

Hutchison - 3

CDMA Operators

Mobile Ads/ Content Carriers

27.89%

25.51%

24.62%

9.50%

7.49% Nokia S40

Symbian OS

MTK / Nucleus OS

Sony Ericsson OS

Samsung OS

Blackberry OS

Others

29.74%

26.86%

23.24%

10.58%

5.31%

3.86%

0.40% 0.01%

Mobile Content

Glamour & Dating

Entertainment & Lifestyle

myGamma & Community

Search/ Portal/ Services

Information

Premium Portals

Others

Handset OS

Mobile ads medium/

channel

Source:Buzz City “ A QUARTERLY BRIEFING ON THE MOBILE INTERNET” Oct 2011

Page 13: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

The Journey… to “Everything Online” Internet development in Indonesia is quite recent – spurred by social networking

“Need to be connected”

To contact somebody…

To make appointment…

To find information….

“Social Media”

To share…

To express opinions…

To be a community member…

“Mobile Commerce”

To offer goods…

To find merchandise…

To advertise…

To do payments…

Page 14: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

How big is the market… Indonesia has a very small online market revenue but potential for growth

is there…

$8, 39%

$2, 7%

$11, 54%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

0.1

1.03

67%

CAGR

Online Commerce Market Size, 2010 (USD Mn) Mobile Commerce Revenue Projection

(USD Bn)

Ads

Gaming

Video/music

• Indonesia potentially reach 10 times its current m-commerce industry

value by 2015 with the proper ecosystem and infrastructure,

technology, & regulatory

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Page 15: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

8

125

How big is the market… Indonesia’s growth will likely be fuel by rise in mobile internet users

39.6

145.2

Internet Users Forecast (Mn) Online Ad Market Size Forecast (USD Mn)

29.7%

73.3%

M-Payment Operator Revenue(USD Bn)

0.5

2.1

33.2%

CAGR

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2010 2015 2010 2015

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Page 16: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

For Indonesia alone, the impression is the world’s second largest, after India, with

a total impression of 3.76 billion and is one of four countries that have advertising

impressions in total more than 1 billion in one quarter (BuzzCity, July 18th).

Based on Indonesia mobile-centric market, “mobile content” is still limited by bandwidth availability

- they fit more into small-screen applications rather than band-width hungry apps.

Some key takeaway…

Big screen vs. small

Indonesia broadband market is predominantly “mobile” centric to access

voice & data content. Rich content is more likely goes through big screens.

RBT, video clip, games are booming within mobile ecosystem while video

streaming is more through PC/ netbook.

Full video vs. clips

Current market is keen of video clip, music, & games download through

mobile phones while full video is not feasible due to sub-optimal network

quality (long-wait or fail to load) i.e. high bandwidth/ capacity requirements

to have ideal ecosystem for streaming rich content

Rise on digital ads

Page 17: Frost & Sullivan MobileMonday 13 Feb 2012 M-Commerce: Everything Online

See you somewhere…online