Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Future of Retail How customers are changing

Why closer partnership between manufacturers and retailers will be vital to future success (Kinship)

Lecture  for  Samsung  La0n  America  on  future  of  retailing-­‐  by  Futurist  Keynote  Speaker  

Patrick  Dixon,  Chairman  Global  Change  Ltd,  ranked  one  of  the  20  most  infleun0al  

business  thinkers  alive  today  (Thinkers  50)

More:    hNp://www.globalchange.com  

Videos:  hNp://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon

In  a  rapidly  changing  and  uncertain  future

partnership  /  collabora0on  /  kinship  will  be  vital  to  success

• Global economy never stopped growingWGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)

Mexico,  Braziland  US                            

2003  -­‐  2014GDP                            

Mexico  Retail  Growth  

Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  

>40% WDP by 2015 Asia powering growth

� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity

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Future retail is all about

EMOTION

Understanding  what  really  maNers  to  each  customer,  how  they  feel,  becoming  an  expert  friend

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Why  need  to  look  beyond  market  research

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Middle ClassLa0n  America  -­‐  50  million  more  people  in  last  10  years

Brazil:    113  million  -­‐  56%  popula0onLarger  retailers  growing  beyond  Rio  and  San  Paulo  

Chile:  La0n  America’s  largest  shopping  Mall  -­‐  Costanera

 Peru:    Cencosud  opening  14  huge  new  stores  in  2014

� Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart

Crea0ng  a  huge  “Wow”  with  

SCALEINNOVATION

Turn  retail  store  into  a  Leisure

Experience

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Being  available  to  each  customer  

on  their  “journey”

....but  look  like  you  have  something  to  do  

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Excite  them  ONLINE

70m  people  online  in  Mexico  (58%)88m  in  Brazil  (46%)

28m  in  Argen0na  (67%)10m  in  Chile  (59%)10m  in  Peru  (34%)

33%  in  UK  don’t  watch  live  TV

Most  people  in  La0n  America  are  not  BUYING  online  yet,  BUT....Global  e-­‐commerce  $1.5  trillion  in  2014      -­‐    $100bn  in  La0n  America  $6.2bn  in  Mexico  led  by  tradi0onal  retailers  -­‐  40%  growth  in  201212%  of  all  retail  is  online  in  UK

Online Sales per UserLatin America: $578Mexico: $854Brazil: $717Argentina $380

Pay-Pal survey

52%  of  online  users  in  Mexico  have  bought  with  Pay-­‐Pal

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Mobile6m  new  mobile  users  in  Mexico  in  201428%  popula0on  -­‐  highest  in  La0n  America

30m  smartphones  -­‐  up  49%  last  year60%  of  25-­‐34  year  olds  using  smartphones

Mobile: MORE THAN A CHANNEL

Brazil RetailMobile influenced 72% of retail sales in Brazil in 2013

INFLUENCERS:

1. Family and friends 2. Manufacturers websites 3. Online consumer reviews of retailer websites (Cisco survey)

UK RetailMobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013

50% of all UK online sales are using mobile

InformationRevelation

Identity

1  trillion  pages                            a  month

Loca0on  Marke0ng

is  next  BIG  THING

MobilePaymentsMaNer

>  200  million  mobile  payments  >  $160bn  

• 1.7bn  mobile  users  -­‐  no  bank  account• Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers  use  mPesa• $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP

•

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2m  businesses  use  SQUARE  in  US

Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model

2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                    

TelcoBanks

FusionOn-­‐Off  line

Online / physicalworlds become one in Brazil

50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online

89% want digital information in store

Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home

Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU

1.3bn  home  delivered  e-­‐com  items  in  UK  a  year  (+12%  pa)

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3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries

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Gold  standard:10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery

10am orders for 3pm Delivery

Internet of Things

90% all global data generated in last 2 years

Big Data

Big Data sharing allows shift from

Marketing to Smart Advice

Mexico mobile ad spend $173m in 2014 - 87% growth last year

•Focus  on  customer  experience•Use  smart  tools  in  markeGng•Become  an  expert  friend  Merge  online  and  offline  retail

•Think  Mobile  •Solve  customer  problems  fast

Customer  Kinship

Requires  closer  Partnerships  

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Future of Retail Kinship, Relationship, Partnership