1

Future Work

Session XJunichi Fujino

The 12th AIM International Workshop19-21, February 2007, NIES/Tsukuba/Japan

Designed by Hajime Sakai

2

JapanJapanLowLow--

Carbon Carbon SocietySocietyProjectProject

BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

年

温室効

果ガス排

出量

(二酸化

炭素

換算

：G

tC/年

)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

2110

2120

2130

2140

2150

年

気温上

昇 (1

990年

=0.6℃

)

GHG475ppm50% reduction

650

550500

BaU

GHG: Greenhouse gases

Tem

pera

ture

rais

e(a

bove

the

pre-

indu

stria

l lev

el)

Year

GH

G e

mis

sion

s (G

t-Ceq

)

475

650550500

BaUGlobal GHG emissions should Global GHG emissions should be reduced by 50% in 2050be reduced by 50% in 2050

Calculated by AIM model

To control temperature rTo control temperature raaise ise below 2below 2ooC (EU target)C (EU target)

Year

Japanese reduction

target in 205060-80%.

CCS・Advanced fire plant + CCS・Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

EECI

・Motor-driven mobiles: Electric Battery Vehicles, Fuel Cell Battery Vehicles

CI

EE・High efficiency hair-conditioner, hot water heater, lighting system

・Fuel cell system, Photovoltaics on the roof

CI・Increase rate of natural gas use

Activity・reduce raw material production・decrease numbers of population/household

Soci

ety

CI

SD

SD

EE

Category

・Nuclear energy・Use of electricity in night time, Electric storage・CO2-free hydrogen supply

Energy supply

・Replacement of working/living place・Public transportation

Transportation

・Use of high insulation system・Control of home energy system

Residential

・Production efficiency improvement

Industry

Main driving forces to reduce CO2 emissions

CCS・Advanced fire plant + CCS・Hydrogen supply using fossil fuel + CCS

EECI

・Motor-driven mobiles: Electric Battery Vehicles, Fuel Cell Battery Vehicles

CI

EE・High efficiency hair-conditioner, hot water heater, lighting system

・Fuel cell system, Photovoltaics on the roof

CI・Increase rate of natural gas use

Activity・reduce raw material production・decrease numbers of population/household

Soci

ety

CI

SD

SD

EE

Category

・Nuclear energy・Use of electricity in night time, Electric storage・CO2-free hydrogen supply

Energy supply

・Replacement of working/living place・Public transportation

Transportation

・Use of high insulation system・Control of home energy system

Residential

・Production efficiency improvement

Industry

Main driving forces to reduce CO2 emissions

23MtC

27MtC

16MtC

8MtC

21MtC

11MtC9MtC

30MtC

41MtC

30MtC

11MtC

amount*

* CO2 reduction amount compared with the emissions in 2000

amountServiceDemand

(SD)40

EnergyEfficiency

(EE)78

CarbonIntensity

(CI)79

CCS30

Dem

and sideS

upply side

CCS: Carbon Capture Storage

Large GHG cut is possible in JapanLarge GHG cut is possible in Japan

Possible trendPossible trend--breaking options breaking options to achieve to achieve 70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan70% reductions toward 2050 in Japan

US

Canada

UK

France

China

India

W orld

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

CO

2 per

cap

ita e

mis

sion

s (t-C

/cap

)

GermanyMETI, Japan2030 scenario

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon SocietyIB1

IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

US: delay for tech development, global warming business

EU: Initiatives toward LCSJapan: Need long-term vision

Developing countries: earlierguidance toward LCS is key

$200/t-C scenario

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventGlobal Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

How to structure How to structure global participation global participation

Junichi Fujino, Jan 12 2007 at Iddri, Paris, fuji@nies.go.jp

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We support country-wise LCS modeling through SD for Asia-Pacific and the world

- We have continued AIM Training Workshops since 1997 -

India China Thailand Korea Malaysia Indonesia BrazilTaiwan,

China USA JapanRussiaSouth Africa

Oct 16-20, 2006 at NIES

JapanLow Carbon

Society 2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

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ChinaChina

IndiaIndia

USAUSA

UKUK DesignDesignJapan Japan

toward toward LCS LCS JapanJapan

ThaiThailandland

EUEU

AIM Training Workshop since1997Oct 16-20, 2006@Tsukuba

（Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

Global Launch of Scientific, Technological,

and Social Innovationto Develop LCS

1st WSExecutive Summary

CollaborativeLCS research

in Asia andfurther

Japan LowJapan Low--Carbon Society (LCS)Carbon Society (LCS)Through Sustainable DevelopmentThrough Sustainable Development

Japan LCS study (FY2004-2008)Global Environment Research Fund of MOEJ60research experts from NIES, Kyoto Univ.,

TIT, Univ. of Tokyo, and others

http://2050.nies.go.jpOrganized by MOEJ, DefraFacilitated by NIES,UKERC, Tyndall CentreFirst workshop in Tokyo, June 2006Second workshop in London, June 2007

Japan-UK LCS studyinvite all countries to structure global LCS

All information is available on http://2050.nies.go.jp

Scientific background for G8 2008

in Japan

JapanLow Carbon

Society 2050

AfricaAfrica

LatinLatinAmericaAmerica

OceaniaOceaniaCOP12 side eventNov 8, 2006@Nairobi

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Japan-UK 2nd LCS workshop in London, UK

Workshop details•Date: Wednesday 13 – Friday 15 June 2007•Venue: The Mermaid Conference & Events Centre,

Puddle Dock, Blackfriars, London, EC4V 3DB. http://www.the-mermaid.co.uk/

Wednesday 13June

Thursday 14 June Friday 15 June

am Open / high level Analytical / model output

Practicalities – how to achieve LCS (2)

pm LCS scene setting / context

Practicalities – how to achieve LCS (1)

Wrap up

•Raising awareness of potential benefits of transitioning to a LCS.•Suggesting how to close the gap between the business as usual and LCS scenarios.•Developing the framework for a map of LCS activities.

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http://2050.nies.go.jphttp://2050.nies.go.jp

Japan-UK Joint Research Project

for Global ParticipationLCS（Low-Carbon Society）

A Second workshop will be held in London, June13-15, 2007.

A Third workshop may be held in Japan, Feb, 2008.

A First workshop was held in Tokyo, June14-16, 2006.

G8 JapanJune 2008

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Things to do by Feb 2008Japan• Develop Roadmaps using Advanced and Classical

Models including cost analysis• Mapping of LCS related activities• Translate our research activities for publicChina, India, Thailand, Brazil• Develop 2050 visions• Develop roadmaps (research based)UK, Germany, France, and other LCS-positive countries• Develop good roadmapsOther countries• Ask to join our activities!

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Schedule• The middle of May, 2007: CSD in New York, USA• May 2007: SBSTA in Bonn, Germany• May 2007: Workshop on Climate Change for G8 Germany• June 2007: G8 Germany• June 13-15, 2007: Japan-UK 2nd LCS workshop in London, UK• the end of June, 2007

IEW (International Energy Workshop) in Stanford, USAEMF22 in Stanford, USA (+ IPCC consortium?)

• Oct/Nov 2007: AIM Training Workshop• Nov/Dec, 2007: COP13 in Bali, Indonesia• Jan 2008: World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland• Feb 2008 : Japan-UK 3rd LCS workshop in London, UK• Feb 2008 : The 13th AIM International Workshop in Tsukuba• March 2008 : G20 Energy & Environment Ministerial Roundtable in

Japan• June 2008 : G8 Japan

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What we will do and where we can go for

LCSthrough

SustainableDevelopment

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AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling) for Japan LCS scenarios

Energy supply & demand

：Model

：Output of model

Macroeconomy

Stock Activity

Populationand

householdmodel

Residentialsector

Commercialsector

Transpor-tationsector

Industrialsector

Energybalance

table

Popu

latio

nLa

bor

Service

Mat

eria

l sto

ck &

flow

mod

el

Energy supplysector E

nerg

ysu

pply

m

odel

Efficiency

Build

ing

dyna

mic

mod

el

Envi

ronm

enta

l opt

ion

data

base

, Bot

tom

-up

engi

neer

ing

mod

el

Passenger Trns.demand modelFreight Trns.

demand model

Inte

r-se

ctor

and

mac

ro e

cono

mic

mod

el

Household Prd.& lifestyle model

Residential energyservice model

Commercial energyservice model

Industrial production model

Stock

Preference of household

Production amount

Investment

EnergySnapshot

Tool：Data flow Check consistency!Backcast

ModelExtendedSnapshot

11SachikoTsukahara

MahoMiyashita

July 7th 2006, Tanabata "Seven Evenings" LCS Festival

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Discussions!

13

cross

Designed by Hajime Sakai (airbox-pin@nyc.odn.ne.jp)