fy 2014 u.s. agricultural trade forecasts changes to fy 2014 forecasts exports $2.0 billion to...
TRANSCRIPT
FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $137.0 billion Imports $3.5 billion to $109.5 billion Surplus $5.5 billion to $27.5 billion
Final Changes For FY 2013 Exports $0.9 billion to $140.9 billionImports $1.2 billion to $103.8 billionSurplus $2.1 billion to $37.1 billion
USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on December 2, 3pm EST
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
U.S. Agricultural Trade
'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 12 13 14(f)
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130$140$150
Billi
on $
27.5
Exports
Imports
Trade Surplus
Records
137.4 140.9
109.5
37.142.9
Soybean exports surge on higher volumes and prices while corn export values fall
137
Grains and Feeds
Oilseeds Livestock, Poultry, and
Dairy
Cotton Horticultural Products
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 FY 2014 Forecasts
Bill
ion
Do
llars
Au
gu
st
No
vem
ber
-$0.7 Billion+$0.7 Billion
-$0.7 Billion
No Change
November vs. August Commodity Forecasts Higher soybean exports outweigh lower grains and cotton
+$2.4 Billion
Grains and Feeds
Oilseeds Livestock, Poultry, and
Dairy
Cotton Horticultural Products
0
10
20
30
40 FY 2013 Exports vs. 2014 Forecast
Bill
ion
Do
llars
FY
201
3
FY
201
4
-$3.2 Billion
-$1.3 Billion
+$3.1 billion
November FY 2014 Forecast vs. FY 2013 Exports Lower Grains, Oilseeds, and Cotton Offset Gains in LPD and Hort
-$3.2 Billion +$0.3 Billion
Bulk Exports Continue to Slide While High Value Products Nearing Record
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f0
20
40
60
80
100
Overall Forecast down $3.9 Billion from FY 2013
Bulk High Value
Bill
ion
$
$ 46
.2 B
illio
n
$ 42
.9 B
illio
n
$ 94
.7 B
illio
n
$ 94
.1 B
illio
n
Export Volume Recovers
2011 2012 2013 2014f0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Other*
Soybeans
Feeds
Wheat
Coarse Grains
Mill
ion
Ton
s
146 mmt 166 mmt
*Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco
146 mmt130 mmt
Canada and China Vie for Top Market Status
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(f)0
5
10
15
20
25U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico
Bill
ion
Dol
lars
China
Mexico
Canada
Exports Up to China and MexicoChange in FY 2014 Exports from August Forecast
-$100 mil
+$100 mil
+$1.0 bil +$100 mil
+$200 mil
-$100 mil
+$100 mil
+$600 mil
Imports $3.5 billion but remain at a record of 109.5 billion
Tropical Products $1.7 billion – lower imports of coffee , rubber, cocoa, and sugar
Horticultural Products $300 million – demand for fresh fruits and vegetable, processed fruit, wine, and essential oils continues growth
Grain and Oilseeds $1.5 billion –sharply lower U.S. demand for imported corn
Livestock & Dairy $500 million – lower beef and dairy imports expected
Imports are forecast at a record $109.5 billion – down $3.5 billion from the Aug. forecast
FY 2014 Imports
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $28.1 billion $700 million
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
11 12 13 14f
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug Forecast
Nov Forecast
2014 Key Developments
Wheat volume down–less demand from China and Brazil and competition from Canada. Wheat value down -pressured by record U.S. corn crop. Corn value is down slightly, despite sharply higher volumes. Record U.S. corn crop is pressuring unit values, spurring global import demand.
Wild CardsSouth American corn planting progressSouthern Hemisphere winter wheat cropsChina’s wheat and corn import demand
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $28.8 Billion $2.4 Billion
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
2014Key DevelopmentsSoybean volume rises on record early sales and larger production Strong demand boosts soybean and soybean meal prices Soybean meal volume up on record sales paceSoybean oil exports reduced on weakening vegetable oil prices and strong domestic demand for biofuels
Wild Cards China’s soybean import demand Argentina export prospects
'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 10 11 12 13f
14f
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug Forecast
Nov Forecast
Revised FY 2014 Projection : $4.3 Billion $700 million
Export Forecast for Cotton
2014 Key Developments Lower unit values More exportable supply in major competators
Wild Cards China’s reserve policy
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
10 11 12 13f
14f
0
2
4
6
8
10Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug Forecast
Nov Projection
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $31.8 Billion $700 Million
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
2014Key Developments Pork raised on higher prices with strong Asian demand expected
Beef raised on higher prices with strong global demand and limited supplies
Dairy higher on strong prices and increased export volumes.
Broiler meat lowered slightly on lower prices.
Wild CardsOngoing SPS trade issues
'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13f
'14f
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug Forecast
Nov Forecast
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.5 Billion
Export Outlook for Horticulture Products Unchanged
2014Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Strong exports to Canada, Europe and China Tree nut exports higher due to strong demand in China and Europe for almonds, pistachios and walnuts
Wild Cards China’s continued growth, particularly for tree nuts, fresh fruit and wine
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11 12 13f
14f
10
15
20
25
30
35
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug Forecast
Nov Forecast
Record