Nominal price

Real price

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Typ

e A

oil

pri

ce (

¥/l

itte

r)

Year

Fig.1 Fluctuation of type A oil in Japan

Nominal Price

Real Price

Osamu Tamaru*1, Kazushi Miyashita2, Yasuzumi Fujimori3, Toshihiro Watanabe1 and Teisuke Miura4

1. Introduction 4. Classified and quantified the social situation

3. Construct the fishery income simulation model

Fisheries Research Agency

7. Conclusion and Future works

2. How do we increase income of fishery households?

Operating squid jigging near the harbor increased fishery income in each catch condition.

It may be assumed that effective method for improving managements of squid jigging fisheries households isn’t increasing of weight of catch but decreasing of cost.

Now, we are constructing the squid schooling model with the Boids algorithm for clarifying the influences of fish lamp when squid school under vessels. The fishery income simulation will be considered the influences of fish lamp by incorporating the squid schooling model.

In “the 3rd Oil Crisis”, fishermen should not operate their fishery in a similar way which operated in “the 2nd Oil Crisis”.

Operating squid jigging near the harbor decreased the emissions of exhausted both CO2 and NO2 gasses.(Tamaru et al., submitted)

Fishery income fluctuation by selecting fishing ground in the Japanese coastal squid jigging fishery

1National Research Institute of Fisheries Engineering, Fisheries Research Agency 2Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University 3Faculty of Fisheries Science, Hokkaido University 4Hokkaido Industrial Technology Center

y = 1E+07x-0.939

R² = 0.9019

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Catch (ton)

Trad

e p

rice

(¥/k

g) R2=0.9019

Total weight of catch (ton)

Un

it p

rice

of

fres

h s

qu

id (

JPY/

kg)

y = 14.623x + 3E+07R² = 0.0182

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Weight of catch (ton)

Val

ue

of

catc

h(U

nit

: 1

,00

0¥

) R2=0.0182

Total weight of catch (ton)

Tota

l pri

ce o

f ca

tch

(U

nit

: 1,0

00JP

Y)

Fig.2 Relationship between the total weight of catch and the unit price of Japanese common squid

Fig.3 Relationship between the total weight of catch and total trade price of Japanese common squid

Many fishermen have been in financial trouble, because of rising fuel price (Fig.1) and falling fish prices( Fig.3) (Baba 2008)

Many fishermen operate their fishery with their own knowledge and intuition

People make a risky choice when they are in bad situation (Kahneman and Lovallo 1993)

The rate of fuel cost of squid jigging fishery is higher than the other fisheries the 2nd Oil Crisis the 3rd Oil Crisis

1. Quantify squid jigging fisheries management 2. Clarify usability of fishermen’s past experiences in the 2nd Oil Crisis

by using the fishery income simulation model

First principal component

Second oil shock

Before and after second oil shock

Bubble economy

Deflation

Third oil shock

Second principal component

Fig.2 Result of principal component analysis of income determination parameters

I. Before and after the 2nd Oil Crisis

II. the 2nd Oil Crisis

III. the Bubble Boom

V. the 3rd Oil Crisis

IV. Deflation The forward direction of X-axis means increasing of the unit price of fresh squid and decreasing of the employment cost. The forward direction of Y-axis means increasing of the unit price of type A oil.

for classifying social situations

Step 1: Hierarchical cluster analysis

Step 2: Principal component analysis

for quantifying the characteristics of each cluster (Fig.2)

Change these factors which were in the red boxes at the fishery income simulation

The total operation time was set as 20 hours hm get larger and ho get smaller, according as the distance from the harbor to the fishing ground increased

Inco

me

(U

nit

: 1

0,0

00

¥)

Distance from harbor to fishing ground (km)

Before and after second oil shock, Second oil shock,

Bubble economy, Deflation, Third oil shock

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期

50case50case

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期

100case

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

200case200case

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

350case

Relationship between the fishery income estimated with the fishery income simulation and the distance from theharbor to fishing ground

Inco

me

(U

nit

: 1

0,0

00

¥)

Distance from harbor to fishing ground (km)

Before and after second oil shock, Second oil shock,

Bubble economy, Deflation, Third oil shock

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期

50case50case

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期

100case

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

200case200case

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

350case

Relationship between the fishery income estimated with the fishery income simulation and the distance from theharbor to fishing ground

Inco

me

(U

nit

: 1

0,0

00

¥)

Distance from harbor to fishing ground (km)

Before and after second oil shock, Second oil shock,

Bubble economy, Deflation, Third oil shock

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期

50case50case

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

オイルショック前後 オイルショック期 バブル期 デフレ期 燃料高騰期

100case

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

200case200case

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

10km 20km 30km 40km

350case

Relationship between the fishery income estimated with the fishery income simulation and the distance from theharbor to fishing ground

Fig.6 Relationship between the fishery income and the distance from the harbor to the fishing ground

the 3rd Oil Crisis

In all social situations and all catch conditions

the 2nd Oil Crisis

In the regular and good catch conditions

higher income

In the poor and very poor catch conditions

lower income

the lowest income

Very poor catch Poor catch

Good catch Regular catch

Inco

me

(Un

it: 1

0,0

00

JP

Y)

Many fishermen may make risky choices

The emission of exhausted NO2 has similar trend

5. Income fluctuation estimated with the fishery income simulation

The unit price got lower, according as the total catch of squid increased

Increasing of total weight of catch didn’t cause increasing of total price of catch

The fishery operating simulation model make it possible to quantify coastal squid jigging fisheries management

Fig.5 Relationship between distance from harbor to fishing ground and emissions of exhausted gasses

Rate of distance 0% located in the harbor, and 100% located in the fishing ground.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Rate of distance (%)

Emis

sio

n o

f exh

aust

ed

gas

(kg) NOx

Rate of distance (%)

Emis

sio

n o

f exh

aust

ed

gas

(kg) NOx

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Rate of distance (%)

Emis

sio

n o

f exh

aust

ed

gas

(kg) CO2

Operation Move

near far

CO2

Distance (km)0 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

Emis

sio

n o

f ex

hau

st g

as (

kg)

Squid jigging

MovingFig.7 Relationship between the emission of exhausted CO2 and distance from the harbor to the fishing ground

Fish lamp

Predator

Schools of squid

Fishhook

Fig.8 3D Boid simulation model for squid jigging fishery

Fig.4 Fluctuation of the unit price of fresh squid

R2 = 0.0182

R2 = 0.9019

C: Amount of catch (case)

r: Unit price of squid (JPY/case)

P: Price of catch (JPY)

P=C•r

M: Employment cost (JPY)

F: Fuel cost (JPY)

mm: Mileage in moving (litter/km)

d: Moving distance (km)

W: Cost of form polystyrene case with ice (JPY)

ho: Continuative tense of squid jigging operation (hour)mo: Mileage in operating squid jigging (litter/h)

O=M+F+W

O: Cost of operation (JPY)

f=mm•d+ho•mo

E=P-OE: Income (JPY)

W=C•y+i•j

y: Unit price of a foam polystyrene case (JPY/case)

i: Unit price of ice (JPY/kg)

C: Amount of catch (case)j: Total amount of ice (kg)

m=0.5177•s2.6236 s: ship speed (km/h)

F=f•R f: Total fuel consumption (litter)

R: Unit price of type A oil (JPY/litter)

ho=H - hm

hm: Continuative tense of moving (hour)

H: Total operation time (hour)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Nominal price

Real price

Trad

e p

rice

(¥

/kg)

Nominal Price

Real Price

6. Exhaust gasses from squid jigging vessel at fishery operation

Before and after the 2nd Oil Crisis

the Bubble Boom

the 2nd Oil Crisis

the 3rd Oil CrisisDeflation