garrett choudhury laurel wilt presentation v2trec.ifas.ufl.edu/rab-lw-2/pdfs/ab-lw-2016/karen...
TRANSCRIPT
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Acommonproblemindiseaseorpestmanagement• Adiseasemanagementconceptortechnologymayworkwellinanexperiment,but…
• Howwelldowereallyunderstanditsperformanceacrossaregion?• Willacriticalmassofpeoplelearnaboutitandadoptit?• Willthe"managementlandscape"slowepidemicsenoughtoprotectproduction?
• Ourroleinthisprojectistointegratetheresultsofotherresearchintoaregionalscenarioanalysistosupportdecisionmaking
Partofthesolution
• Understandhowthesocioeconomicandbiophysicalnetworksthataffectlaurelwiltcomposeasinglesystem,andwhatisneededforsuccessfulmanagement
• Stillneed• Goodmanagementtools• Managerstobeconvincedtousemanagementtoolsappropriately
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Traitsofnetworknodes• Inasocioeconomicnetwork,nodesarepeopleorhumaninstitutions(managers/farmers,extensionagents,scientists,…)
• Inabiophysicalnetwork,nodesaregeographiclocations(individualplants,farms,storagefacilities,wildlands,…)
• Degreecentrality– numberoflinks• Betweenness centrality– importanceasabridgebetweenothernodes
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TUVW
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Impactnetworkanalysis(INA)
• TheGarrettLabisdevelopingINAasaplatformforevaluatingsystemmanagementstrategies(suchascropbreedingnetworks,seedsystems,andintegratedpestanddiseasemanagement)
• ImpactOF researchproductssuchasinformation/training,diseaseresistance,anddisease-freeseedproductiontechnologies
• ImpactON spatialecologicalprocesses,suchasgene/genotypespread,pathogeninvasionsorecosystemservicesmorebroadly
• ImpactTHROUGH communicationanddecision-makingnetworks,andlinkedbiophysicalnetworks
Socioeconomicnetwork(exchangeofideasandmoney)
Biophysicalnetwork(movementofplants,pathogens,andpests)
Impactnetworkanalysis
Garrett,inreview
Managementtechnologies
Outcome:yield,profit,systemresil,etc.
IntegrationofsocioeconomicandbiophysicalcomponentsHeterogeneityPhenotypesConstraints
Realism Questionslike:Howdochangesinnetworktraits,suchaschangesinmechanismsforinterpersonalinfluence,affectsystemoutcomes?
PrecisionQuestionslike:Whichparticularcommunicationorlandnodesarekeycontrolpointsfortransmissionthroughthelandscape?
Generality Questionslike:Howcanachangeinimpactnetworkcomponentscompensateforincreasedrisktomaintainsystemsustainability?
Impactnetworks,broadly
ImpactnetworkanalysisofLWmanagement
Diseasemanagementcomponents
Communicationnetwork Ecological(Dispersal)networkDecisionnetwork Establishmentnetwork
ImpactNetworkAnalysis(INA)Components
Qualityofinformationormanagement
Avocadogrowersmanagementnetworks
BeetleandRaffaelea lauricola populationspread
Communicationnetworksthatinfluenceavocadogrowerdecisionmaking,withorwithoutfullinformation
ImpactNetworkAnalysis(INA)ofLaurelWilt
• Integratethesocioeconomicandbiophysicalanalysesofthelaurelwiltmanagementsystem
• Evaluatetheeffectsofcumulativedecisionsbygrowersaboutwhetherandhowtomanagelaurelwilt
• TheINAwillbeusedinscenarioanalysistoevaluatequestionssuchas• howeffectiveamanagementapproachwouldhavetobeforsystem-levelbenefits
• potentialeffectsofpoliciesrelatedtolaurelwiltmanagement• identifykeyrisklocationsintheepidemicnetworkforsamplingandmitigation.
TwoScalesinModeling
• Within-grove epidemicsandmanagementstrategies• Epidemicsandmanagementataregionalscale,andbeyond
WithinGroveManagementofLW
WithinGroveManagementofLW
WithinGroveManagementofLW
WithinGroveManagementofLW
WithinGroveManagementofLW
RegionalManagementofLW
RegionalManagementofLW
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Acknowledgements
WeappreciatesupportfromUSDANIFAandtheopportunitytointegratedatafromthemanygrowersandothercolleaguesworkingtoeffectivelymanagelaurelwilt
KarenGarrett,[email protected],[email protected]