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Future Skills & New Solutions for Education & Training Results of Global Educa0on Futures Kazan 2223 May 2015, Kazan, Russia

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Future Skills & New Solutions for Education & Training

Results  of    Global  Educa0on  Futures  Kazan  22-­‐23  May  2015,  Kazan,  Russia  

GEF  Kazan  Forum:  highly  produc6ve  conven6on  of  business,  regulators,  and  educators  

94  par0cipants  from  33  countries  represen0ng  manufacturing  and  service  sectors,  regulatory  bodies,  think-­‐tanks,  TVET  &  higher  educa0on  ins0tu0ons*.  The  majority  of  the  aNendees  were  official  and  technical  delegates  of  WorldSkills  Interna0onal.    

Facilita0on  team  has  used  innova0ve  methods  of  collec0ve  crea0ve  work,  including  Rapid  Foresight  methodology  

Forum  was  conducted  in  partnership  with  WorldSkills  Russia  Na0onal  Compe00on  2015  in  Kazan,  aNended  by  more  than  500  contestants  and  experts.  

4  ‘maps  of  the  future’  were  created,  char0ng  skills  of  the  future  for    major  sectors  of  economy  and  society.  Specific  ini0a0ves  were  offered  to  develop  WorldSkills  movement  

*  See  Appendix  for  details  

3  

Held  in  conjunc6on  with  WorldSkills  

Established  in  1946,  WorldSkills  today  unites  74  member  countries  and  regions,  posi0oning  itself  as  the  global  hub  for  skills  excellence  and  development.  The  mission  of  WSI  is  to  raise  the  profile  and  recogni0on  of  skilled  people,  and  show  how  important  skills  are  in  achieving  economic  growth  and  personal  success.  

Opera0ons  of  WorldSkills  include  6  focus  areas.  The  central  one  is  a  system  of  regional,  na0onal,  and  interna0onal  skills  compe00ons  (interna0onal  compe00on  includes  50  skills).  Other  areas  include:  support  in  Career  Building,  Promo0ng  Skills,  Educa0on  and  Training,  Interna0onal  Coopera0on  and  Development,  and  Research  in  skill-­‐related  topics.  WorldSkills  Interna0onal  has  one  of  the  largest  knowledge  base  of  prac00oners  in  the  area  of  industrial  and  service  skills  in  the  world.  

Russia  has  joined  WorldSkills  movement  in  2013.  Currently,  World  Skills  Russia  joins  60  regions  of  the  country,  with  8  thousand  compe0tors  and  10  thousand  experts.  Na0onal  compe00ons  include  innova0ve  WorldSkills  Hi-­‐Tech  (skills  in  advanced  manufacturing)  and  JuniorSkills  (skills  compe00on  for  children  age  10-­‐17)  

GEF  Kazan:  Main  Subject  &  Expected  Outcomes  

4  

Future  Skills  &  New  Solu6ons  in    Educa6on  &    Training    

We  explore    •  changes  in  specific  domains  of  the  global  economy  driven  by  

technological  innova0on  and  social  transforma0on,  •  future  global  demand  for  skills  that  will  ensue  from  such  change,  

and    •  transforma0on  that  will  be  required  in  educa0on  &  training  

systems  across  the  world  to  accommodate  to  such  demand.  

From  ‘knowns’  to  ‘unknowns’  

The  Forum  is  a  collec0ve  explora0on,  a  learning  lab  It  is  not  to  seek  opinion  of  few  experts  but  to  co-­‐create  Our  main  outputs  are  •  Shared  vision  of  future  skills  and  educa0on  &  training  formats  that  

support  them  •  Ideas  of  systemic  innova0on  in  skills  development,  including  those  

that  can  be  implemented  within  WS  movement  

Globally  compe66ve  skills  

Recognizing  the  diversity  of  economic  &  social  prac0ces  in  different  countries,  we  suggest  to  look  at  globally  compe66ve  technologies  &  prac6ces  in  manufacturing  &  services  (as  manifested  e.g.  by  WS  GIPs*),  and  skills  that  can  support  them  

*  WS  GIPs  =  WorldSkills  Global  Industry  Partners  that  help  to  communicate  needs  of  industry  and  best  industrial  technological  prac0ces  

Accelera6ng  changes  in  industrial  &  economic  prac0ces  (driven  by  technologies,    esp.  ICT)  and  growing  complexity  of  global  markets  

Techno-­‐social  transi6on:  up  to  70%  of  tradi0onal  jobs  in  manufacturing  and  services  may  become  obsolete  in  next  20  years  due  to  applica0on  of  AI,  robo0cs,  automated  logis0cal  systems  etc.  (but  many  new  may  be  created)  

Push  of  global  technological,  financial  &  environmental  standards  –  and  possible  redefini0on  of  global  

governance  structure  

Search  for  new  sources  of  na6onal  compe66veness  in  

industrialized  countries  through  crea0on  of  new  &  emerging  

industries  

Future Skills: skills that will make workers competitive

in the future socio-economic & technological

environment

Challenge  of  Future  Skills  

5  

‘Industrialized’  educa6onal  &  training  (olen  cumbersome,  rigid  and  slow  to  respond)  –  how  does  it  have  to  change  to  address  new  skills?  

Rise  of  new  players  (e.g.  global  online  learning  planorms)  –  how  does  it  affect  the  world  of  professional  educa0on?  

Future  Skills  

Learning  in  prac6ce  (on-­‐job  training,  

appren0ceship,  communi0es  of  prac0ce,  etc.)  –  what  forms  will  

thrive,  what  tools  should  arise?  

Global  professional  standards  governing  

interna0onal  educa0on  &  labor  markets  

New  Answers  Within  Educa6on  &  Training?  

6  

Group  1:  Automa6on  &  Digitaliza6on  

Group  2:  Human  focused  services  

Group  3:  Educa6on  &  Training  

Group  4:  Global  Agenda  

Scenarios  for  the  future  of  manufacturing:  cyberphysical,  highly  localized,  or?  Future  of  digital  work  Role  of  AI  in  manufacturing  &  digital  work  Role  of  human  workers  

Sectors  vulnerable  vs.  sectors  prone  to  automa0on  (robo0cs,  AI  etc.)  Growing  segments  &  needs  they  address  Role  of  crea0vity  in  21  century  services  Dominant  models  of  service  provision  

Accommoda0on  of  ‘future  skills’  agenda  in  educa0on  &  training  Role  of  ICT  in  transfer  of  knowledge  /  skills  and  assessment  Organiza0on  of  learning  &  career  trajectories  (incl.  new  financial  &  investment  mechanisms  to  support  them)  

Urbaniza0on  &  transforma0on  of  ci0es    Green  agenda    Global  market  &  technological  standards  Global  security  (incl.  cybersecurity)  

GEF  Kazan  Group  Topics  &  Tenta6ve  Ques6ons  

7  

8  

Future  of  Manufacturing  

2015   2020   2030  

Source:  GEF  Kazan,  “Automa0on  &  Digitaliza0on”  group  

Sol  technology  /  format  

Policy  /  governance  mechanism  

Hard  technology  

                 Automa0on  of  rou0ne  manufacturing  skills                    Increased  machine  to  machine  connec0vity  

Light  cheap  wireless  sensorics  

                 Growth  of  customized  manufacturing                    Growing  spreading  of  3D  prin0ng  in  manufacturing  

                 Digitaliza0on  of  manufacturing:  blending  of  sol  &  hard  tech  

                 Spread  of  new  materials  

BMI  for  coordina0on  of  manufacturing  

Material  ‘shredders’  

3D  scanner  &  printer  for  reverse  

engineering  

Empathy  skills  for  engineers  

Electrically  ac0ve  materials  

Persona-­‐lized  co-­‐deign  

Self-­‐adap0ng  solware  

Quantum  computers    

Policies  governing  

mass-­‐market  3D  prin0ng  

Mul0-­‐skilled  digital  factory  operators  

BigData  to  analyze  successful  future    

designs  

New  ‘lingua  franca’:  IT  +  system  

engineering  based    

Manual  work  becomes  ar0san  

Intense  applica0on  of  3D  

prin0ng  in  construc0on  

Mul0-­‐material  3D  prin0ng  

New  human-­‐machine  interfaces  

9  

Key  processes  that  shape  future  of  manufacturing  

•  Automa6on  of  manufacturing  –  a  robust  trend  that  leads  towards  wide  spreading  of  cyber-­‐physical  manufacturing  systems  (involving  industrial  robo0cs,  automated  sensory  systems,  and  self-­‐adap0ve  ar0ficial  intelligence)  that  will  be  fully  autonomous.  Massive  use  of  machine-­‐machine  communica6on  (supported  by  digitaliza6on  of  manufacturing  processes)  will  be  required  to  coordinate  industrial  logis0cs  and  control  produc0on  within  and  between  such  manufacturing  systems.  Human  operators  will  be  high-­‐skilled  produc0on  experts,  and  in  10-­‐15  years  they  will  control  manufacturing  processes  via  brain-­‐machine  interfaces  (even  before  that,  human-­‐machine  interfaces  will  con0nue  to  develop  to  allow  greater  flexibility  and  larger  set  of  tools  to  cope  with  unpredictable  situa0ons)  

•  Growth  of  customized  manufacturing,  supported  by  wide  use  of  3D  prin6ng  technologies,  will  allow  for  increasingly  personalized  manufacturing.    Co-­‐design  between  engineers  &  customers  will  gradually  dominate  manufacturing,  and  will  be  supported  by  BigData  analysis  that  will  allow  to  predict  poten0ally  successful  designs.  Applica6on  of  new  materials  (including  electrically  ac0ve  materials)  will  become  an  enabler  of  wide  use  of  3D  prin0ng  (including  mul0-­‐material  prin0ng).  ‘Material  shredding’  technology  may  become  a  possible  solu0on  to  localized  recycling  that  will  allow  to  break  worn  objects  for  re-­‐use.  In  the  view  of  the  wave  to  transforma0ons  brought  by  3D  prin0ng  into  economy  &  society,  governments  will  introduce  a  set  of  regula0ons  for  this  new  prac0ce  (alike  to  ‘traffic  code’,  and  possibly  accompanied  by  ‘3D-­‐printer  license’).  

10  

Future  manufacturing  sectors  and  future  skills  

Mass-­‐scale  industrial  manufacturing  (e.g.  natural  

resources,  energy,  food,  chemistry  &  new  materials,  machinery  &  

equipment  etc.):  highly  autonomous  cyber-­‐physical  manufacturing  systems  

Customized  end-­‐user  manufacturing  (apparel,  consumer  electronics,  consumer  transport,  

furniture  etc.):  localized  personalized  produc0on  based  on  

3D  manufacturing  

Manufacturing  of  the  future  will  be  dominated  by  two  types  of  produc0on  systems  

Networks  of  unmanned  transport  for  industrial  &  

consumer  logis0cs  •  Product  co-­‐crea0on  with  customer  •  Crea0vity  for  unique  product  

crea0on  •  3D-­‐scan-­‐supported  reverse  

engineering  for  customiza0on  (“same  watch,  different  color”)  

•  ‘Beau0ful  excep0ons’  of  manual  work  dominated  by  ar0sans  

•  Cyberphysical  manufacturing  facility  opera0on  &  maintenance  

•  Skills  for  Internet  of  Things:  system  engineering,  dynamic  programming,  etc.  

•  AI  development  /  training  of  AI  •  Skills  in  chemistry  /  new  materials  

(e.g.  for  electric  materials)  •  Flexible  supply  chain  

management  •  Technology  ethics  

•  Informa0on  worker  skills  (search,  programming,  etc.)  

•  Collabora0on  •  Working  in  dynamic  /  

high-­‐uncertainty  environment  

•  Working  in  mul0disciplinary  environments  

•  Crea0vity  •  System  engineering  •  ‘Green  thinking’  •  Languages:  foreign  +  

universal  ‘lingua  franca’  (based  on  IT  +  finance  +  system  engineering?)  

•  Ability  to  unlearn  /  relearn  (supported  by  mind-­‐s0mula0on)  

Sector  specific  skills   Universal  skills  Manufacturing  sector  

Source:  GEF  Kazan  

                   Removal  of  intermediaries  

11  

Future  of  Services  

2015   2020   2030  

Sol  technology  /  format  

Risk  factor  

Hard  technology  

Source:  GEF  Kazan,  “Human-­‐Centered  Services”  group  

     Digitaliza0on  of  human  services  (health,  educa0on,  entertainment,  …)                    Growth  of  personal  data  &  personalized  scenarios  

     Increasing  connec0vity  

                   Rise  of  net-­‐centric  culture  

     Greening  of  services  

Social  networks  to  support  personal  development  

Transport  sharing  dominates  urban  transporta0on  

Driveless  cars  

Brain  fitness  in  response  to  loss  of  cogni0ve  abili0es  

Family  universi0es  for  community-­‐based  inter-­‐genera0onal  learning  

Digital  P.A.  to  everyone  

‘Cocoon’  of  personal  security  

‘Avatar’  for  life  scenario  forecasts  

Omnipresent  ICT  jeopardizes  

physical,  mental  &  family  health  

Informa0on  hygiene  prac0ces  for  everyone  

ANen0on  management  &  

mindfulness  schools  

CRMs  &  digital  design  solware  for  personalized  

services  

Ludic  communi0es  in  game-­‐based  

‘work-­‐play-­‐live’  environments  

Models  of  urban  resilience  based  on  

social  capital  

12  

Key  processes  that  shape  future  of  services  •  Digitaliza6on  of  human  life  is  a  strong  trend  in  the  majority  of  service  sectors  (e.g.  

transporta0on,  finance,  retail,  healthcare,  etc.),  coupled  with  the  growth  of  personal  data.  It  allows  to  achieve  personaliza0on  of  services  on  mass  scale  (including  provision  of  personalized  assistance  &  personalized  security  to  virtually  every  member  of  the  society).  Digital  ‘avatars’  (simula0ons  of  personal  behavior)  will  allow  to  predict  poten0ally  beneficial  &  risky  strategies  for  personal  health,  learning,  entertaining  etc.  

•  Digitaliza0on  allows  to  remove  layers  of  intermediaries,  thus  making  provision  of  services  more  efficient  in  economic  and  environmental  terms.  In  par0cular,  it  helps  give  boost  to  sharing  economy  (including,  in  par0cular,  sharing  of  transporta0on)  

•  Personal  does  not  deny  social:  increasing  connec6vity  helps  rise  of  network-­‐based  communi0es  of  interest,  including  social  networks  that  support  self-­‐guided  personal  development,  and  family  universi0es  that  support  inter-­‐genera0onal  community  learning.  In  15-­‐20  years,  many  professional,  hobbist,  gaming  and  personal  development  communi0es  may  converge  to  become  ‘communi0es  of  being’  (olen  built  around  shared  ‘playing’  prac0ces)  

•  Among  the  major  risks  of  this  scenario  is  that  omnipresent  informa0on  technologies  may    become  increasingly  ‘toxic’  to  human  physical,  mental  &  social  health,  including  friendship  &  family  (as  manifested  by  recently  emerged  phenomenon  of  ‘nocializing’,  spending  all  0me  on  mobile  device  while  in  company  of  other  people  and  in  public  places).  Prac0ces  dealing  with  nega0ve  effects  of  ICT,  including  aCen0on  management,  brain  fitness  to  keep  cogni0ve  func0on,  and  ul0mately  ‘informa0on  hygiene’,  should  become  literacies  of  the  future.    

13  

Future  service  sectors  and  future  skills  

Digitalized  &  machine-­‐assisted  massive  use  services  (e.g.  digital  health,  digital  entertainment,  

unmanned  transporta0on,  post-­‐retail  distribu0on,  etc.)    

Customized  highly-­‐personalized  services  (e.g.  wellness,  

psychotherapy,  fitness  &  tourism,  hospitality,  personalized  art  &  

entertainment,  etc.)  

Services  of  the  future  will  largely  break  into  two  types  (but  unlike  in  manufacturing,  these  service  sectors  can  be  largely  independent  from  each  other)  

•  Authen0c  serving  (serving  others  as  a  personal  ‘quest’)  

•  Psychology  skills  •  Ethics  of  service  including  the  

principle  of  “We  belong,  we  care,  we  serve”(also,  principles  that  serve  local  communi0es,  e.g.  ‘slow  food’)  

•  Storytelling  (“every  personalized  service  is  a  story”)      

•  Engineering  of  socio-­‐technical  systems  

•  Sustainable  design  (incl.  balance  between  personal  &  social  structures)  

•  Green  design  •  New  skills  for  working  with  ‘smart  

machines’  (e.g.  human-­‐machine  psychiatrist)  

Similar  to  those  for  Manufacturing  sector  plus:    •  Concentra0on  /  

aNen0on  management  

•  Empathy  /  bonding  (“I  am  a  person  because  of  another  person”)    

Sector  specific  skills   Universal  skills  Service  sector  

Source:  GEF  Kazan  

14  

Future  of  Sustainable  Urban  Socie6es  

2015   2020   2030  

           Urbaniza0on  

Input  that  can  ini0ate    paradgimal  shil  Megaci0es  dominate  

urbaniza0on  process  (esp.  in  emerging  

economies)  

           Greening  of  living  

Urban  organic  farming  

                 Ageing  of  popula0on  

                 Blending  of  virtual  &  real  

Upgrading  spaces  without  building:  intense  use  of  augmented  reality  

Smart  ambience:  electric  grids,  u0li0es,  houses  

Robo0c  assistants:  nurses,  household  

workers  etc  

Family  first:  restric0on  of  

technology  7pm  to  7am  

Urban  construc0on,  equipment  &  transport    must  be  3R  

Policies  that  balance  intergenera0onal  composi0on  of  workforce  

Sol  technology  /  format  

Policy  /  governance  mechanism  

Hard  technology  

Away  from  fossil  fuels:  electric  transporta0on  

dominates  urban  transporta0on  

Integrated  personal  cyber-­‐security  solu0ons  

Ci0es  as  learning  

ecosystems  

Prac0ces  of  healthy  urban  

living  

Source:  GEF  Kazan,  “Global  Agenda”  group  

15  

Key  processes  that  shape  future  of  urban  sustainable  living  

•  Urbaniza6on  is  a  dominant  trend  in  the  global  agenda  that  shaped  the  focus  of  discussion  of  this  group.  Within  next  decade,  the  agenda  of  urbaniza0on  will  become  increasingly  dominated  by  theme  of  megaci0es,  especially  due  to  city  growth  in  Asian  &  emerging  economies.  

•  ‘Greening’  of  living  is  another  very  robust  trend  that  sets  new  standards  of  city  construc0ons,  transport  &  equipment  (3R:  reduce-­‐reuse-­‐recycle),  and  gradual  phasing  out  of  non-­‐electric  transport.  Urban  farming  may  become  a  wide  spread  prac0ce  that,  in  addi0on  to  shortening  the  supply  chain  in  food  industry,  will  also  contribute  to  urban  greening.  

•  Increased  connec0vity  will  lead  to  blending  of  virtual  &  real  in  all  urban  prac0ces:  every  object  in  the  city  will  be  connected  to  the  Internet  of  Things  (including  smart  energy  grids  &  u0li0es,  city  transporta0on,  city  lights,  security  systems,  and  smart  houses).  Spreading  of  augmented  reality  will  allow  for  mul0ple  use  /  upgrade  of  city  spaces  (esp.  public  spaces)  without  rebuilding  them.  Connec0vity  will  call  in  for  new  urban  habits,  including  ‘informa0on  hygiene’  which  may  require  highly  limited  use  of  connected  devices  in  ‘family  0me’  

•  Ageing  of  popula6on  across  the  world  will  affect  all  aspects  of  our  living,  including  composi0on  of  the  workforce.  It  will  lead  to  the  increased  demand  for  prac0ces  of  healthier  living,  including  healthy  food,  fitness  &  wellness.  Increase  of  senior  popula0on  share  will  lead  to  wide  use  of  home  robo0cs  such  as  nurses  and  household  workers.  

16  

New  skills  for  urban  sustainable  living  Transforma0on  of  ci0es  will  create  variety  of  jobs  in  different  areas  of  city  life,  catering  to  needs  of  various  popula0on  groups.  Some  of  these  are  new  skills,  while  others  are  exis0ng  skills  that  will  increase  in  importance.  

Green  city  living  

Healthy  city  living  

Connected  city  living  

Harmonious  city  living  

Some  skills  that  will  be  required  in  this  sector  Jobs  that  support  …  

•  Sustainable  design  •  Smart  grid  design  &  maintenance  •  Electric  transport  repairing  •  Urban  farming  •  Environmental  law  

•  Personal  wellness  advising  /  healthy  habits  coaching  •  Healthy  aging  consul0ng  •  Adapta0on  psychology  

•  Re-­‐educa0on  for  adults  •  Smart  poli0cal  design  •  Inter-­‐cultural  communica0on  •  Cloud  police  •  Cyber  law  

•  Cyber-­‐security  management  •  IoT  design  /  maintenance  •  Home  robo0cs  maintenance  

Source:  GEF  Kazan  

World  2035:  where  are  we  going  *  

WHAT  GOES  UP   WHAT  GOES  DOWN  

•  Highly  autonomous  industrial  cyber-­‐physical  manufacturing  

•  Highly  local  manufacturing,  food  produc0on  &  energy  genera0on  on  demand  

•  Green  produc0on,  energy  &  services  •  Highly  personalized  services  in  

healthcare  &  wellness,  educa0on,  entertainment  etc.  

•  Unmanned  transporta0on  is  ubiquitous  •  Total  connec0vity  +  hybrid  reality  +  

wide  use  of  brain-­‐machine  communica0on  

•  Smart  human-­‐centered  technological  environments    

•  Human  prac0ces  of  ‘ludic’  communi0es  that  naturally  blend  working,  living,  and  crea0vity  

•  Large  industrial  facili0es  as  employers  •  Ci0es  as  centers  of  industrial  mass  

produc0on  •  Centraliza0on  of  infrastructure,  

coordina0on  &  development  •  Manual  labor  in  the  majority  of  

manufacturing  opera0ons  (and  in  many  service  opera0ons)  

•  Middle  management  and  many  industry-­‐related  services  (incl.  jobs  in  sales  &  marke0ng,  supply  chain  management,  accoun0ng  &  finance,  IT  support  etc.)  

•  Boundaries  between  work,  crea0vity,  learning,  play,  and  life  

Source:  GEF  Kazan   17  

*  This  descrip0on  focuses  on  ‘global  best  prac0ces’.  We  acknowledge  the  diversity  of  geopoli0cal  &  economical  scenarios  that  different  countries  of  the  world  may  face  in  next  20  years  

18  

Omnipresent  ICT  

Robo0cs  /  IoT  /  autonomous  energy  /  …  

21  century  literacies:  •  aNen0on  management  /    

mindfulness    •  informa0on  hygiene  •  programming  (as  task-­‐sexng)  

Expanding  domain  of  ‘new  service  economy’  focused  on  crea0ng  unique  human  experiences  through  •  personal  

connec0on  (empathy  /  bonding)  

•  crea0vity  

New  urban  jobs  created  around    •  green  ci0es  •  healthy  ci0es  •  distributed  &  

connected  ci0es  

Domain  of  support  to  lifelong  educa6on  (that  expands  to  include  personal  development,  body  &  mind  fitness,  therapy  etc.)  becomes  a  new  large  economic  sector  with  dozens  of  new  types  of  jobs  

Design,  coordina6on  &  maintenance  of  complex  tech  environments  (ca.5%  of  jobs)  

Management  +  knowledge  work  as  complex  problem  solving  with  dynamic  collec0ve  intelligence  

Source:  GEF  Kazan  

Future  skills:  what  do  21  century  economy  &  society  want?  

Skills  of  the  future  are  needed  not  only  for  employability  &  successful  career-­‐building,  but  also  for  good  ci0zenship  and  higher  quality  of  personal  life.    

19  

21  century  skills   Future  skills  (GEF  Kazan  )  1.  Content  knowledge    

•  English  &  other  languages,  arts,  mathema0cs,  economics,  science,  geography,  history)  

2.  21  century  themes    •  global  awareness,  financial  literacy,  civic  

literacy,  health  literacy,  environmental  literacy  

3.  Learning  &  Innova0on  Skills  •  Crea0vity  &  Innova0on  •  Cri0cal  Thinking  &  Problem  Solving  •  Communica0on  &  Collabora0on  

4.  Informa0on,  Media  &  Technology  Skills  5.  Life  &  Career  Skills  

•  Flexibility  &  Adaptability  •  Ini0a0ve  &  Self  Direc0on  •  Social  &  Cross-­‐Cultural  Skills  •  Produc0vity  &  Accountability  •  Leadership  &  Responsibility  

•  Concentra0on  &  aNen0on  management  •  Informa0on  hygiene  •  Empathy    •  Collabora0on  (as  a  cri0cal  skill  that  should  be  

embedded  in  many  aspects  of  work  &  learning)  •  Working  mul0-­‐disciplinary  environments  +  

emerging  ‘lingua  franca’  (incl.  system  engineering  &  economics)    

•  System  thinking  •  Green  thinking  •  Ability  to  unlearn  /  relearn  •  Ethics  of  human  work  /  human  service  

Source:  Partnership  for  21  century  skills,  GEF  Kazan  

Skills  that  can  be  highlighted  as  

‘universal’  in  addi0on  to  21  century  skills  

Future  skills:  what  new  skills  are  highlighted?  In    comparison  with  exis0ng  models  of  ‘future  skills’  (one  of  the  most  developed  is  used  by  the  Partnership  for  21  century  skills),  GEF  Kazan  session  highlights  several  important  skills  of  the  future:  

20  

The  current  educa0onal  model  is  flawed  by  design:  it  prepares  people  for  skills  of  the  past,  not  skills  of  the  future!    •  We  cannot  teach  people  to  be  crea0ve  by  giving  them  standard  tasks  •  We  cannot  teach  people  to  be  collabora0ve  by  puxng  them  in  compe00on  

against  each  other  •  We  cannot  teach  people  to  be  lifelong  learners  if  we  deprive  them  of  self-­‐

explora0on  and  courage  to  learn,  if  we  blame  them  for  mistakes  •  We  cannot  teach  people  to  be  empathic  /  emo0onally  intelligent  by  removing  

emo0on  and  focusing  on  cogni0ve  abili0es  only  •  We  cannot  teach  people  to  use  IT  properly  if  we  remove  it  from  the  school  •  We  cannot  teach  people  to  be  mindful  if  we  are  not  mindful  

Educa0onal  processes  and  formats  need  to  be  redefined  to  enable  the  development  of  21  century  workers  /  ci0zens  /  humans  

What  is  How:  adapta6on  of  educa6on  to  future  skill  demand  

21  

Economy  2035:  produc0on  &  logis0cs  can  be  up  to  95-­‐99%  unmanned,  and  up  to  50-­‐70%  of  jobs  in  related  services  can  

be  replaced  by  AI  

Exis6ng  (industrial)  model:  60-­‐70%  of  jobs  directly  or  indirectly  serve  systems  of  

mass  produc0on  

Technologies  of  automa6on  &  autonoma6on  (2015-­‐30):  robo0cs,  Internet  of  Things,  Big  Data  &  Ar0ficial  Intelligence,  autonomous  energy  genera0on  &  smart  grids,  unmanned  transporta0on  &  logis0cs,  designed  bio  ecosystems,  etc.  

A  challenge  to  be  taken:  explosive  automa6on  &  autonoma6on  

Source:  GEF  preliminary  analysis  

We  require  new  educa0on  &  training  models  not  only  to  provide  new  workers  &  ci0zens  with  skills  of  the  future,  but  to  help  smoothing  out  transforma0on  of  our  socie0es  for  economically  ac0ve  &  senior  popula0on.  

22  

Transforma6on  of  Educa6on  &  Training  Systems  

2015   2020   2030  

                 Shortening  of  technology  /  working  prac0ce  lifecycles                    Increasing  skills  gap  between  educa0on  &  prac0ce  

                 Delocaliza0on  of  educa0on  

                 Growth  of  learning  by  doing  /  prac0ce-­‐oriented  educa0on  

                 Growth  of  gamifica0on  in  educa0on  

Lifelong  ‘avatar’  for  personalized  

educa0on  

Dual  educa0on  system  dominant  in  

professional  educa0on  

                 New  &  emerging  technologies  not  accessible  to  majority  Peer-­‐to-­‐peer  learning  &  mentorship  

Virtual  tutors  in  mul0-­‐user  

games  support  real  skill  training  

Independent  skill  assessment  with  

competence  centers  

Differen0a0on  of  degrees  to  cover  more  skills  

‘Technology  for  all’  network  for  

makers  

Teaching  prac00oners  

Mass  AR  planorms  with  open  API  for  professional  skill  

training  

                 Number  &  diversity  of  educa0on  providers  is  growing  

Fablabs  permeate  ci0es  

Global  learning  planorm  for  skills  development  

Sol  technology  /  format  

Hard  technology  

Kaizen  park  

Mind  training  in  online  games  

Source:  GEF  Kazan,  “Educa0on  &  Training”  group  +  recommenda0ons  of  other  groups  

Global  culture  learning  planorm  

Google.Educa0on:  search  engine  on  

educa0on  providers  

Automated  real-­‐0me  skill  assessment  done  by  AI  ‘observers’  

23  

Key  processes  that  shape  future  of  professional  educa6on  &  training  

•  Life  cycle  of  technologies  is  shortening  in  almost  any  industries,  and  that  makes  many  skills  obtained  during  ‘long’  educa0on  cycle  (e.g.  university  degree)  increasingly  irrelevant  –  which  may  require  differen0a0on  of  degrees  &  cer0ficates  to  help  cover  more  skills  (and  dis0nguish  between  ‘fundamental’  and  ‘professional’  educa0on).  

•  Reduc0on  of  skills  gap  can  be  obtained  through  wide  applica0on  of  prac6ce-­‐oriented  learning    /  learning  by  doing.  Elements  of  dual  educa0on  systems  can  be  gradually  implemented  across  the  world,  including  on-­‐job  training  for  students,  prac00oners  teaching  at  school  and  university  level,  and  independent  assessment  centers  (incl.  companies  &  corporate  universi0es)  that  can  award  degrees  based  on  demonstrated  skill  (this  may  also  give  rise  to  ‘creden0al  market’).    

•  New  technologies  are  olen  more  sophis0cated  and  expensive,  crea0ng  ‘technology  gap’  within  and  between  na0ons  –  which  can  be  covered  with  help  of  maker  movement  and  networks  (incl.  peer-­‐to-­‐peer)  that  help  teach  technology  to  anyone  interested.  Augmented  reality  plaJorms  can  be  used  to  reduce  cost  of  training.  

•  In  a  more  distant  perspec0ve,  skill  training  &  assessment  of  teams  &  individuals  can  be  accomplished  in  real  0me  by  Ar0ficial  Intelligence  ‘observers’  that  will  replace  human  observers.  Such  ‘observers’  can  also  act  as  virtual  tutors  that  provide  feedback  &  help  create  beNer  skill.  

24  

•  Game-­‐based  educa6on  for  all  ages  &  stages  of  educa6on  helps  mo0vate  people  for  skill  training  and  keep  them  engaged  in  the  process.  Various  edutainment  formats  (e.g.  Kaizen  park  with  Disney-­‐like  experience  to  try  different  professions,  such  as  ‘Masterville’  in  Russia)  will  help  to  create  mo0va0on.  Training  can  be  conducted  in  mul0-­‐user  gaming  environments  (specially  designed  as  well  as  generic  gaming  universes),  with  real  &  virtual  tutors  using  augmented  reality  to  develop  real  skills  

•  Growth  of  new  providers,  enhanced  by  delocaliza6on  of  educa6on  (as  it  moves  from  real  to  virtual  space),  accelerates  the  prolifera0on  of  new  educa0on  &  training  models.  It  can  be  an0cipated  that,  within  5-­‐10  years,  a  global  online  learning  plaJorm  for  skill  development  emerges,  that  will  play  important  role  in  professional  educa0on  &  training  across  the  world.  Another  an0cipated  plaJorm  (that  will  most  likely  be  combined  with  language  training)  will  help  study  cultural  diversity  (and  cultural  unity  on  global  level,  as  well  as  global  society  inclusiveness  principle)  &  acquire  cross-­‐cultural  communica0on  skills.  

•  In  order  to  organize  the  online  learning  space,  it  is  an0cipated  that  a  major  search  engine  (e.g.  Google)  will  launch  a  specialized  search  on  courses  and  online  learning  tools  available  from  exis0ng  ins0tu0ons  and  new  providers.  

Key  processes  that  shape  future  of  professional  educa6on  &  training  (2)  

25  

Design  of  learning  environments  &    skills  of  teachers  

Learning  environments  &    pedagogy  principles   Skills  of  teachers  

•  Transi0on  from  compe00ve  to  collabora0ve  learning  processes    

•  Focus  on  self-­‐development  &  self-­‐guidance,  collabora0ve  design  of  learning  process  &  content  to  be  explored    

•  Personalized  learning  trajectory  that  combines  •  Learning  in  virtual  environments  

(online  courses,  virtual  reality  lectures,  social  &  AR  simulators  etc.)  

•  Prac0ce-­‐based  learning  in  real-­‐life  sexngs    

•  Peer-­‐based  learning  (face-­‐to-­‐face  &  online)  with  mentors  &  community  

•  Learning  built  around  real-­‐life  problems  &  challenges  rather  than  subjects  

•  Environment  for  physical  exercises  &  interac0on,  emo0onal  /  ar0s0c  interac0on  etc.  

•  Blended  pedagogy  •  Collabora0ve  &  connected  pedagogy,  

including  peer-­‐type  instruc0on  (collabora0ve  explora0on  rather  than  ‘schooling’)  

•  Gamefica0on  of  learning:    •  game-­‐design  •  game-­‐based  teaching    •  in-­‐game  ac0ng  (teacher  as  NPC)  

•  Mentorship  &  coaching  (based  on  learner’s  own  goals)  

•  Entrepreneurship  •  Research-­‐driven  pedagogy  •  Project-­‐based  pedagogy  •  ‘Holis0c’  teaching  that  recognizes  various  

needs  of  learner’s  mind  &  body  •  ‘Skills  archive’:  prac0ce  of  storying  

disappearing  skills  and  retrieving  them  when  necessary    

26  

Self-­‐Guided  Learners:    natural  lifelong  learning  everywhere  all  the  0me  

Global  learning  planorms:  best  of  the  available  knowledge  &  skills,  global  content  (‘billion  student  universi0es’)  

Local  learning  ecosystems:  exis0ng  (schools  /  colleges  /  universi0es)  +  new  formats  helping  to  

serve    

Ed  tech  tools  that  help  create  personalized  trajectories  in  learning,  career,  well-­‐being  etc.    

Communi0es  of  prac0ce  that  provide  peer  

support  /  guidance  

Skills  of  the  future  in  curriculum  

Big  shias  ahead:  learner-­‐centered  lifelong  educa6on  

Transforma0on  of  professional  educa0on  &  training  systems  should  play  along  with  the  larger  transforma0on  of  ‘industrial’  educa0onal  systems  into  ‘network-­‐based’  educa0onal  eco-­‐systems  that  cater  to  learner  needs  on  the  lifelong  basis  

Source:  GEF  California  session  results  

27  

Proposals  for  WorldSkills  movement:    compe66ons  of  the  future    

New  types  of  compe00ons  that  

could  be  conducted  by  WSI  

New  skills  that  could  be  

introduced  in  WSI  compe00ons  around  2020  

•  Product  lifecycle  management  (PLM)  compe00ons  (for  teams)  •  Problem-­‐solving  challenges  •  Various  compe00ons  for  collabora0on  /  teamwork  •  Sol  skills  compe00ons,  including:  

o  Cross-­‐cultural  communica0on  skill  compe00on,  culture-­‐specific  &  tradi0onal  skills    

o  Public  presenta0on  challenge  •  Compe00ons  for  WS  experts:  

o  Assessment  challenges  (best  skill  valida0on  prac0ces)  o  Communica0on  challenges  (“skill  of  developing  skills”)  

•  Challenge  for  educators  (themes  defined  every  year))  

•  Cyber  security  •  Mobile  app  development  •  Industrial  Internet  analysis  /  configura0on  •  Recycling  management  •  Smart  grid  design  •  Electric  vehicle  repair  

Proposals  made  by  forum  aNendees  in  response  to  the  ques0on  “What  new  types  of  compe00ons,  general  or  skill-­‐specific,  could  be  introduced  by  WSI  in  next  4-­‐6  years?”  

28  

New  role  of  WSI  

•  Massive  WS  compe00ons  (on  na0onal  &  interna0onal  level)  can  become  skill  valida0on  centers  (to  award  professional  cer0fica0on)  

•  WS  can  provide  interna0onal  industry  creden0als  for  student  par0cipants  

•  WS  can  provide  training  on  valida0on  &  skills  analy0cs  methodology  to  countries  &  companies    

•  WS  can  help  build  global  online  learning  planorm  for  skills  (with  use  of  AR  technology)  and  use  it  for  interna0onal  skills  valida0on  (in  more  distant  perspec0ve)  

•  WS  can  become  a  ‘skill  archive’  for  tradi0onal  &  disappearing  skills  •  WSI  could  launch  its  own  WorldTeach  Forum  (not  for  compe00on  but  for  

sharing  the  best  educa0on  &  training  prac0ces)  

Proposals  for  WorldSkills  movement  (2)  

Some  topics  for  future  discussions  

•  How  to  promote  crea0ve  aspect  of  skills?  •  How  to  aspire  to  manual  work?  And  is  it  necessary?  •  How  to  increase  sustainability  /  green  component  in  skills?  •  How  can  a  system  of  transna0onal  competences  be  organized?  •  How  to  enhance  and  globalize  WorldSkills  assessment  /  valida0on  prac0ces?  •  How  to  involve  WorldSkills  compe00on  winners  into  co-­‐design  of  WorldSkills  

movement  development?  

Forum  aNendees  have  also  made  proposals  regarding  the  future  development  of  WSI  in  the  context  of  transforming  world  of  skills,  and  have  indicated  themes  that  could  be  explored  further.  

APPENDIX  

29  

Composi6on  of  the  Par6cipants  Group  

Regional  representa6on  

Female  /  male  propor6on  

Organiza6onal  representa6on  

Number  of  aNendees  N=94  

*  

30  

GEF  Kazan:  Key  Process  

31  

Skills Foresight Future of sector +

Future Skills

Plenary: Future skills for

economic & social development

Plenary: Solutions in education & training for changing

skill demand

Group Work: New solutions in E&T

for future skills

May 22 May 23

Inputs from key experts

Participatory group work

Presentation of results

Group sharing & final remarksGroup sharing

32  

TRENDS   NEW  WORKING  TASKS  

FUTURE  SKILLS  

HARD  &  SOFT  TECHNOLOGIES  

Analysis  of  gap  between  demanded  &  available  skills  

SOLUTIONS  IN  EDUCATION&  TRAINING  

1 2 3 4 5

Co-­‐designed  by:  

Main  Process:  Skills  Technology  Foresight  

GEF  Kazan:  List  of  Contributors  

33  

Sarnai  Batchuluun  (Ministry  of  Labour,  Mongolia)  Suzana  Bin6  Daut  (Government  Building,  Malaysia)  Kadyrbek  Boribekov  (Na0onal  Academy  of  Educa0on,  Kasipkor  Holding,  Kazakhstan)  Armando  Carvalho  (Ins0tuto  do  Emprego  e  Formação  Proffissional  IEFP,  Portugal)  Dilip  Chenoy  (Na0onal  Skills  Development  Corpora0on,  India)  Rodrigo  Cerda  (WorldSkills  Chile)  Rico  Cioccarelli  (Cioccarelli  Baukeramik,  Switzerland)  Claudia  Contreras  (Elektroinstallateur,  Chile)  Amit  Dar  (Educa0on  Global  Prac0ce,  World  Bank  India)  Chris6ne  Davatz-­‐Hochner  (Swiss  Trade  Associa0on,  Switzerland)  Olga  Dekh6arenko  (RIPO,  Belarus)  Alina  Doskanova  (WorldSkills  Russia)  Ta6ana  Drosdov  Díez  (Embassy  of  Spain  in  Moscow)  Savas  Erisen  (WorldSkills  Turkey)  Carlos  Eyharchet  (Fundacion  UOCRA,  Argen0na)  Anastacia  Fetsi  (European  Training  Founda0on,  Italy)  Jorge  Gaspar  (Ins0tuto  do  Emprego  e  Formação  Proffissional  IEFP  Portugal)  Erhan  Girit  (WorldSkills  Turkey)  Eleno  Agapito  Bron  Gonzalez  (CetUna  Paraguay)  Michel  Guisembert  (WorldSkills  France)  Alexey  Gusev  (Russian  Venture  Company)  Anna  Gushchina  ('Stal'Industrial  holding,  Russia)  Mohammad  Hossein  Hajiloo  (WorldSkills  Iran)  Ma6lde  Higinia  (CetUna  Paraguay)  Hannu  Immonen  (Skills  Finland)  Alexey  Ivanov  (R&D  Center  at  Federal  Grid  Company,  Russia)  Kyunghee  Jeon  (SamsungSkills,  Korea)  Dmitry  Kaisin  (Russian  Technological  Agency)  Eduard  Kalitski  (RIPO,  Belarus)  

Dyah  Kar6ningdyah  (Ministry  of  Educa0on  and  Culture,  Indonesia)  Brent  Kindred  (SkillsUSA)  Denis  Konanchuk  (SKOLKOVO  Educa0on  Development  Centre,  Russia)  Nikolay  Kuteev  (Russian  Technological  Agency)  Tim  Lawrence  (SkillsUSA)  San-­‐Quei  Lin  (World  Skills  Interna0onal,  Сhinese  Taipei)  Yehuda  Calo  Livne  (Shahak  Training  Centre  Israel)  Ekaterina  Loshkareva  (Agency  for  Strategic  Ini0a0ves,  Russia)  Sergey  Masyagin  (University  of  Innopolis  Russia)  Ekaterina  Matveeva  (Europeonline,  UK)  Diana  Carolina  Mejia  (SENA,  Colombia)  San6ago  Y.  Mendieta  (WorldSkills  Ecuador)  Xavier  A.  Mendieta  (WorldSkills  Ecuador)  Juan  Pablo  Castro  Morales  (SENA,  Colombia)  Vacharapong  Mukcherd  (Department  of  Skill  Development,  Ministry  of  Labour  Thailand)  Francis  Mwape  (WorldSkills  Zambia)  Prenesh  Naidoo  (MediaplaJorm,  South  Africa)  Sergey  Nazarenko  (KAMAZ,  Russia)  Alexey  Nikolaev  (Intel,  Russia)  Christopher  Ian  Oliver  (Festo  Didac0c,  South  Africa)  Kourosh  Parand  (Ministery  of  Coopera0ves,  Labor  and  Social  Welfare,  and  TVTO  Iran)  Sung  Hee  Park  (WorldSkills  Korea)    Young-­‐Bum  Park  (WorldSkills  Korea)    Raymond  Patel  (merSETA,  South  Africa)  Dmitry  Peskov  (Agency  for  Strategic  Ini0a0ves,  Russia)  Lilit  Petrosyan  (WorldSkills  Armenia)  Oleg  Ponfilyonok  (Associa0on  of  Small  UAVs,  Russia)  Stefan  Praschl  (World  Skills  Interna0onal,  Austria)  Ernst  Ralf  (DMG  MORI  Academy,  Germany)  Victoria  Ratnikova  (WorldSkills  Russia)  Pyotr  Schedrovitsky  (G.P.  Schedrovitsky  Ins0tute  for  Development,  Russia)  

Kers6n  Seise  (WorldSkills  Germany)  Dmitry  Shamenkov  (System  of  Health  Management,  Russia)  Andrey  Shpitov  (Festo,  Russia)  Kader  Si-­‐Tayeb  (WorldSkills  France)  Mar6n  Sneyd  (Dublin  Ins0tute  of  Technology,  Ireland)  Adrian  Sommer  (Verband  Schweizerischer  Elektro-­‐Installa0onsfirmen,  Switzerland)  Ji  Oh  Song  (Samsung  Electronics,  Korea)  Mohamad  bin  Sulaiman  (Department  of  Skills  Development,  Ministry  of  Human  Resources,  Malaysia)  Olga  Syomina  (Domodedovo  Training,  Russia)  Yasuo  Takamori  (Toyota  Motor  Corpora0on,  Japan)  Yasuo  Torikai  (Toyota  Motor  Corpora0on,  Japan)  John  Twohig  (WorldSkills  Ireland)  Ismael  Ugur  (WorldSkills  Turkey)  Maxim  Usynin  (Russian-­‐Bri0sh  Ins0tute  of  Management,  Russia)  Isacio  Vallejos  (CetUna  Paraguay)  Ester  van  der  Linde  (WorldSkills  South  Africa)  Kirill  Vasiliev  (World  Bank  Russia)  Kanissery  Venugopalan  (NeCur  Technical  Training  Founda0on,  India)  Ravi  Shanker  Verma  (Na0onal  Skills  Development  Corpora0on,  India)  Andre  Vermeulen  (WorldSkills  South  Africa)  Bu  Nur  Widyani  (Ministry  of  Educa0on  and  Culture,  Indonesia)  Alina  Yakovleva  (Open  Innova0on  2015  Forum,  Russia)  A  Sun  Yun  (WorldSkills  Korea)    Ulan  Zharmukhamedov  (Kasipkor  Holding,  Kazakhstan)  Natalia  Zolotareva  (Ministry  of  Educa0on  and  Science,  Russia)    

34  

GEF  Kazan:  List  of  Moderators  &  Organizers  

GEF  Kazan  Organiza6on  Team  Pavel  Luksha      Director,  GEF  /  Report  Author  Ekaterina  Loshkareva    Program  Co-­‐designer,  ASI  Alina  Doskanova                                                                              Par0cipants  and  key  speakers  management,  WSR    Tatyana  Pirog    Administra0ve  Director,  GEF  Varvara  Lukashina    Administra0on,  ASI  Ksenia  Andreeva    Administra0on,  ASI  

GEF  Kazan  Facilita6on  Team  Pavel  Luksha      Team  leader  Timour  Shchoukine    Facilitator,  Automa0on  &  Digitaliza0on  Ekaterina  Shapyrina    Facilitator,  Automa0on  &  Digitaliza0on  Pavel  Surkov      Facilitator,  Human-­‐Centered  Services  Tatyana  Pirog    Facilitator,  Human-­‐Centered  Services  Yuri  Lapshin      Facilitator,  Educa0on  &  Training  Systems  Alexei  Morozov    Facilitator,  Educa0on  &  Training  Systems  Dmitry  Sudakov      Facilitator,  Global  Agenda  Kris0na  Kashfullina      Facilitator,  Global  Agenda  

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GEF  Kazan:  List  of  Supporters  

GEF  Kazan  session  operator   Key  sponsors  of  GEF  Kazan  

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