German solar PV development

and subsidy policy

Ray Loa

1

What is in your mind when people talk

about solar energy?

• Solar energy has huge potential so we should all

focus on solar

• Solar energy is not efficient so we should focus

on other renewable energy sources instead

2

Germany set solar PV power record by

supplying 40% of total electricity demand.

• On July 7th, 1:45pm, PV power

supplied 40% of the total

electricity demand in Germany

(23.8GW)

• 5% of the electricity came from

PV in 2012

~10 times the world average

(0.5%)

>100 times compared to Taiwan

(0.03%)

3

Source: SMA Solar Technology; Taiwan Power Company; Deutshe Bank

Grid parity is a key concept in renewable

energy development.

• PV installation will boom after

grid parity is reached

– residential > commercial > industrial

• Italy and India have reached

grid parity, according to

Deutsche Bank, Germany and

Japan are close

• Before grid parity is reached, PV

development is driven by

subsidies, such as Feed-in-tariff

(FIT)

4

Source: US Department of Energy; Deutsche Bank

Grid parity definition:

LCoE <= Electricity rate

Phase I

(2000-2009)

Phase II

(2010-2011)

Phase III

(2012-)

Objective

Ground-mounted

Ground-mounted

Rooftop

PV system price

(Euro/Wp)

3-5 2 1.6

FIT(ct/kWh) 46-62 24-39 13.5-19.5

FIT rate degression Flat monthly Flat monthly Flat monthly +

Volume-based

Threshold No No 52GW by 2020

German FIT policy is divided into three phases by

different objectives and FIT designs.

5

Source: Deutsche Bank; BSW-Solar; Apricum GmbH

German FIT policy successfully drove

domestic PV installations.

6

Cumulative installed PV capacity and YoY% in Germany (2000-2012)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

YoY

%

Cum

ula

tive insta

lled P

V c

apacity

[MW

p]

Year

Source: Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit - BMU

Taiwan has launched Million Rooftop PVs

Promotion with FIT and tender design.

• 130MW of total PV installation is targeted in 2013, which is divided into non-

tendered (40MW) and tendered (90MW)

• The objective is first rooftop, then ground-mounted PV installation

• Appealing FIT is expected to drive PV installation (IRR = 10%, PP = 9yr)

• Threshold yearly installation and tender process are adopted

7

Installation

scale

Phase I

(Jan. 1st-Jun. 30th)

[NTD/kWh]

Phase II

(Jul 1st-Dec. 31st)

[NTD/kWh]

Tender process

Rooftop 1-10kWh 8.3971 8.1836 No

10-100KWh 7.5432 7.3297 No

100-500kWh 7.1162 6.9027 Yes

>500kWh 6.3334 5.9776 Yes

Ground-mounted >1kWh 5.9776 5.6218 Yes

Source: Taiwan Million Rooftop PVs Promotion Office

Taiwan PV subsidy policy started slow but is

equipped with comprehensive design.

• High FIT rate at front will boost PV installation, and FIT rate

degression will take place along the timeline

• Threshold yearly installation and tender process are adopted to

control quantity and quality of PV installaiton

• Rooftop PV is targeted as main objective considering Taiwan’s land

limitation, remote PV is recommended

• Other issues as energy transition period and energy storage are

needed to be tackled along the PV development

8

Back up slides

9

30% of the solar energy in one second can

supply one year global electricity demand.

10

Source: KTH Renewable Energy Technology course

German PV system price dropped by 50%

from 2006-2011 with continued momentum.

11

Efficiency roadmap of solar cell technologies.

12

Source: NREL

Italy has reached grid parity by high power price and high energy yield.

13

Solar PV power has flatten the load

curve in Germany.

14

Source: Energy Rebellion