IT Academy

Povilas Kepalavičius, 2015 11 26, Riga

Global Retail Theft Barometer

Economics

Economics

Economics

Quantity of stores for milion people

About survey• The performance results captured in this

year’s report are interesting in many ways, constituting elements of improvement and of concern

• The report’s findings reveal that shrink remains a significant operational challenge for retailers around the world.

• Survey is done in 24 major geografical markets

Methodology• The report’s objective is to understand shrinkage

rates in four key regions, covering 24 countries and 222 retailers (who are reaching 663 Bilion EUR‘s)

Global shrinkage rates• Shrinkage amplitudeIn all countries variatesFrom 0,8% to 1,7%• Biggest countries and Economies, Biggest losses• Smallest shrinkage hasStrong economy countries

PasaulinisMeksika

KinijaJAV

SuomijaIspanija

RusijaBrazilijaOlandija

PortugalijaArgentina

BelgijaDanija

VokietijaLenkija

ItalijaPrancūzija

Hong KongasAustralija

AustrijaŠvedijaTurkija

JKJaponija

Norvegija

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.81.29

1.71.53

1.481.39

1.361.35

1.31.23

1.181.161.16

1.141.11.091.091.091.09

1.061.05

10.99

0.970.97

0.83

Europe Retail Shrinkage – by Store Type

Shrinkage changes from previous year• First bullet point• Second bullet point• Third bullet point

Country Shrinkage (%) Last year

Shrinkage (%) This year

Changes

Belgija 1,3 1,16

Prancūzija 1,4 1,09

Vokietija 1,10 1,10

Italija 1,3 1,09

Olandija 1,4 1,23

Portugalija 1,2 1,18

Ispanija 1,4 1,36

Jungtinė Karalystė 1,2 0,97

Increased

Decreased

Same

Variation

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131.10%

1.15%

1.20%

1.25%

1.30%

1.35%

1.40%

1.45%

1.50%

1.40%

1.42%

1.45%

1.37% 1.35%

1.24% 1.23%

1.26%1.27%

1.33%

1.29%

1.39%1.40%

1.13%

Sources of Europe Retail Shrinkage • Shoplifting is the biggest

issue in europe – 38% (13.57 bilion. eur)

• Dishonest employee theft retailers cost is 7.71 bilion. eur

• Shrinkage size depends on store type, size of retailer, and investments on loss prevention

21.90%

38.60%

14.70%

24.80%

PersonnelCustomersVendorsErrors

Most-stolen Merchandise • First bullet point• Second bullet point• Third bullet point

Most popular investments in loss prevention• First bullet point• Second bullet point• Third bullet point

Investments size in loss prevention• First bullet point• Second bullet point• Third bullet point

• Retailers constantly investing in complex solutions, with good ROI, like Video surveillance systems, electronical article surveillance, security guards, business intelligence. To reach the best KPI’s

Country Investment % (from revenue) Country Investment % (from

revenue)

Austria 1,15 Norway 1,30

Belgium 0,71 Poland 0,23

Denmark 1,03 Portugal 1,03

Finland 1,37 Russia 1,30

France 0,49 Spain 1,38

Germany 0,82 Sweeden 0,97

Italy 1,01 Turkey 0,12

Netherlands 0,81 UK 1,18

Avarage investments size in Europe is 0.93% (counting from revenue)

BALTIC Survey • We reached 18 retailers, with

800 stores. • Shrinkage in baltics is from

0,24% to 1,8% • 2014 Average shrink is 0,68% • 2013 Average shrink is 0,87%• Investments for loss

prevention is from 0,2% to 1% from revenue.

-0,19%

Source of shrinkage: Europe vs. Baltics

• Same as in Europe, biggest part of shrinkage in baltics is made by shoplifters. But number is 1,5 times bigger then Europe.

• But losses from Vendors and Errors more than 2 times smaller thank Europe. Mostly is that we are more advance with business management systems, and business operations.

38.60%

21.90%

39.50%

Europe

Shoplifters

Employees

Vendors, Er-rors

57.00%27.00%

14.60%

Baltics

Conclusion• Shrinkage is still on of key and critical issue in retailers daily basis

operations

• Retailers are investing, paying more attention and puts more resources for loss prevention

• Key factors, why shrinkage is decreasing:• More investments in loss prevention;• More cooperation between manufacturers and retailers;• Efforts on data analysis, and business inteligence ;• Personnel trainings, and job with them.

Shoplifters and Dishonest employee is biggest issue, which makes 67% of all shrinkage

• Investment in loss prevention solutions, should be made with very good calculations, ROI and KPI‘s, and touch all store level operations , be more complex

Conclusion Baltic Countries in the European

context• Avarege European retailers losses – 1.13% from revenue.

• Avarege Baltics retailers losses – 0,68% from revenue.

European retailers investment size – 0.93% from revenue.• Baltics retailers, invest significantly

smaller amount in loss prevention. But has better results.

Conclusion• It‘s very obvious that shirnkage is decreasing in

most of the countries, except Asia/Pacific regions, which biggest part takes china.

• Decreasing shrinkage is conclusion of constant in growing investment in loss prevention.

Paldies!