green leaders forum #3 presentation: dr. junichi fujino, nies
DESCRIPTION
Green Leaders Forum #3 Presentation: Dr. Junichi Fujino, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)TRANSCRIPT
Shuzo.NishiokaJunichi
Fujino
MikikoKainuma
Scenarios for a low carbon society (LCS) in Japan in 2050 Junichi Fujino (NIES)
日中低炭素セミナー 2010
NIES has coordinated this Japan LCS research projectduring FY2004-2008 in collaboration with around 60 researchers from Tokyo Univ, Kyoto Univ, TIT, TSU,Forest Research Institute, etc.
WHAT IS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY?
Takes actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of all groups within society are met
Makes an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change through deep cuts in global emissions
Demonstrates high levels of energy efficiency and uses low carbon energy sources and production technologies
Adopts patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low level of greenhouse gas emissions
From the executive summary of the first Japan-UK LCS workshop (2006)
1st WSExecutive Summary
2020 20502000
Long-te
rm ta
rget y
ear
Rele
ase
of
AIM
resu
lt
Technology development,socio-economic change projected by historically trend
Forecasting
Back-casting
Normative target world
Reference future world
Service demand change
by changing social behavior,
lifestyles and institutions
Mitigation Technology
developmentRequired Policy intervention and Investment
required intervention policy and measures
En
vir
on
men
tal p
ress
ure
Check
ing
year(2
01
5)
Check
ing
year(2
02
5)
Req
uir
ed
in
terv
en
tion
3. We need“Innovation”
to realize visions
2. We need“Visions”
1.”Target” is tough
50% reductionsIn the world
Backcasting is necessary to design sustainable low-carbon societies
Green buildingsSelf-sustained city
Decentralized services
Eco awarenessEffective communication
Dematerialization
Next generation vehiclesEfficient transportation system
Advanced logistics
1990
2000
2020
2050
2010
BaU scenario
Interventionscenario
EE improvement
New energy
Energy saving
Structure change
Life-stylechange
Tech. innovation
Urban structure IT-society
Techno-Socio Innovation Study
GHG reduction target( eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level )
Evaluate feasibility of GHG reduction target
Long-termScenario
DevelopmentStudy
Develop socio-economic scenario, evaluate counter-measures using econ-techno models G
HG
em
issi
on
Middle-termTarget year
Loge-termTarget year
Transportation system
-1
135
Valid
Equity
Suitable
Effective
ReductionTarget study
Study environmental options toward low carbon society in Japan
Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
Advisory board : advice
to project
60 Researchers
Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy
[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]
J apanLow Carbon
Society 2050
http://2050.nies.go.jp
Japan LCS research project and CC policy
0. FY1990- start AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) project FY1997 AIM provided Kyoto Protocol simulations for Japan FY2000 AIM provided IPCC SRES/A1B marker scenario
1. Feb 13th 2007, Interim Report “Japan Scenarios torwards Low-Carbon Society (LCS) -Feasibility study for 70% CO2 emission reduction by 2050 below 1990 level-”
May 24th 2007 Former Prime Minister Abe launched “Cool Earth 50” to reduce 50% GHG emissions by 2050
June 9th 2008 Former Prime Minister Fukuda set the target of Japanese CO2 emissions reduction by 60-80% in 2050
2. May 22nd 2008, Interim Report “Dozen Actions towards LCSs” July 29th 2008 Japanese government set “Action Plan for Achieving a
Low-carbon Society”
3. April 2009, The Mid-term Target Committee, “six options for 2020” (including 7%, 15%, 25% reduction compared as 1990 level)
September 22nd 2009, New Prime Minister Hatoyama set the target as 25% for 2020.
AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling) for Japan LCS scenarios
Energy supply & demand
:Model
:Output of model
Macroeconomy
Stock Activity
Populationand
householdmodel
Residentialsector
Commercialsector
Transpor-tationsector
Industrialsector
Energybalance
table
Pop
ulat
ion
Labo
r
Service
Mat
eria
l sto
ck &
flow
mod
el
Energy supplysector E
nerg
ysu
pply
m
odel
Efficiency
Bui
ldin
g d
ynam
ic m
odel
Env
iron
men
tal o
ptio
n da
taba
se, B
otto
m-u
p en
gine
erin
g m
odel
Passenger Trns.demand model
Freight Trns.demand model
Inte
r-se
ctor
and
mac
ro e
cono
mic
mod
el
Household Prd.& lifestyle model
Residential energyservice model
Commercial energyservice model
Industrial production model
Stock
Preference of household
Production amount
Investment
EnergySnapshot
Tool:Data flow Check consistency!Backcast
Model
7
Socio-Economic Scenarios in Japan, 2050
Population Mil. 127 94 (74%) 100 (79%)
Household Mil. 47 43 (92%) 42 (90%)
Average number of person
per household2.7 2.2 2.4
GDP Tril.J PY 519 1,080 (208%) 701 (135%)Share of production primary % 2% 1% 2% secondary % 28% 18% 20% tertiary % 71% 80% 79%
Offi ce floor space Mil.m2 1654 1,934 (117%) 1,718 (104%)
Building dynamics Model &
Inter- sector and Macro
Economic Model
Travel Passenger volume bill. p・km 1,297 1045 (81%) 963 (74%) Private car % 53% 32% 51% Public transport % 34% 52% 38% Walk/bycycle % 7% 7% 8%
Freight transport volume bill. t・km 570 608 (107%) 490 (86%)
100 126 (126%) 90 (90%)
Steel production Mil.t 107 67 (63%) 58 (54%)
Etylen production Mil.t 8 5 (60%) 3 (40%)
Cement production Mil.t 82 51 (62%) 47 (57%)
Paper production Mil.t 32 18 (57%) 26 (81%)
( %) is a percentage compared with year 2000
year unit 2000A B
Inter- sector and Macro
Economic Model
model
Population and Household
model
Inter- sector and Macro
Economic Model
Transportation demand
model & Inter- sector and
Macro Economic Model
Industrial production index
2050
7
80.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
CO
P (
Coe
ffici
ent
of p
erfo
rman
ce)
Best
Average
Worst
Historical
Projected energy efficiency improvement: Air-conditioners for cooling and heating
AIST
MOE
METI METI
Energy efficiency improvement has been encouraged by Top Runner Program.
Innovations
17
12
23
9
3 43 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2050A 2050B
En
erg
y C
on
sum
ptio
n (
Mto
e)
Change of the numbersof householdsChange of servicedemand per householdChange of servicedemand per householdImprovement of energyefficiencyElectricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption
Gas consumption
Oil consumption
Energy consumption in2000
Residential sector Energy reduction potential: 40-50%
Hi-Insulated housing
Energy Effiency
Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and BChange of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per householdChange of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power
Innovations
Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
Industrial Residential Commercial
Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
2000(Actual)
2050(Scenario A)
2050(Scenario B)
Industrial Residential Commercial Trans. Prv. Trans. Frg.
Decrease of energy demand
Trans. Prv.: Transportation (Private), Trans. Frg.: Transportation (Freight)
40% demand reductions
Coal Oil Gas
Biomass
Nuclear
Solar and Wind
100 200 300 400 500 600
2000(Actural)
2050(Scenario A)
2050(Scenario B)
Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind
low-carbon energy
70% CO2 cutby 2050
70%
redu
ction
6
21
90
36
77
61
24
10
13
38
97
28
17
41
36CCS
Carbon CaptureStorage
Change of activity
1990
CO
2 Em
issi
on
2000
CO
2 Em
issi
on
2050
CO
2 Em
issi
on
Change of activity
Impr
ovem
ent o
f ca
rbon
inte
nsity
of
ene
rgy
supp
ly
Impr
ovem
ent o
f ca
rbon
inte
nsity
of
end
-use
Impr
ovem
ent o
f en
ergy
inte
nsity
of
end
-use
Redu
ction
of
dem
and
Ener
gy d
eman
dse
ctor
Ener
gy s
uppl
y se
ctor
Indu
stry
Tran
spor
tatio
nRe
side
ntial
&
com
mer
cial
Ener
gy s
uppl
y
Reduction of service demandImprovement ofenergy intensityImprovement ofcarbon intensity
Reduction of service demand
Reduction of service demand
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofenergy intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
Improvement ofcarbon intensity
・High economic growth, Increase of service demand per household, Increase of office floor (increase)
・Servicizing of industry, Decline in number of households, Increase of public transportation (decrease)
・Fuel switch from coal and oil to natural gas
・Insulation・Energy use management (HEMS/BEMS)・Efficient heat pump air-conditioner, Efficient water heater,
Efficient lighting equipment・Development and widespread use of fuel cell・All-electric house・Photovoltaic
・Advanced land use / Aggregation of urban function・Modal shift to public transportation service・Widespread use of motor-driven vehicle such as
electric vehicle and fuel-cell electric vehicle・High efficiency freight vehicle・Improvement of energy efficiency (train/ship/airplane)
・Power generation without CO2 emission・Hydrogen production without CO2 emission
・Fuel mix change to low carbon energy sources such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and renewable energy
・Effective use of night power / Electricity storage・Hydrogen (derived from renewable energy) supply
・Farm products produced and consumed in season
GHG 70% reduction in 2050 Scenario A: Vivid Techno-driven SocietyDemand side energy -40% + Low carbonization of primary energy +CCSwith moderate cost of technological options as 0.3% of GDP in the year of 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2
emis
sion
s [M
tC]
-70% to 1990
1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances
3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
4. Sustainable Building Materials5. Environmentally Enlightened
Business and Industry6. Swift and Smooth Logistics7. Pedestrian Friendly City
Design8. Low-Carbon Electricity9. Local Renewable Resources
for Local Demand10. Next Generation Fuels11. Labeling to Encourage Smart
and Rational Choices12. Low-Carbon Society
Leadership
A Dozen Actions
Residential/commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Energy supply
Cross-sector
A dozen actions make it possibleto reduce 70% CO2 emissions by 2050
Japan
Japan
13
How to achieve Low-Carbon Life?
Popularization of Environment buildings
NavigationSystem
Support for live
Efficiency Improvement
Construction Skills Design Skills
Communization and Standardization of technical know-howTax benefits for aggressive company for LCS Building
Obligation and regulation
LC-Life
Eco-Labeling
Support for Choice
Financing
Tax benefits, subsidy, reimburse
Support for Purchase
Transition to service Consumption lifestyle
Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Applicances
Action 2
Comfortable and GreenBuilt Environment
Action 1
Policy
PolicyPolicy
5 yrs5 yrs
30 yrs
14
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Add
ition
al in
vest
men
t [Tr
il. JP
Y]
Ene: Fuel savingEne: Additional fixed investmentTrp: Fuel savingTrp: Additional fixed investmentInd: Fuel savingInd: Additional fixed investmentRes: Fuel savingRes: Additional fixed investmentTotal
Scenario AEarly Investmentcan reduce cost and enhance energy efficiency of countermeasures
and gain multi-benefits e.g. energy securitybusiness powercomfortable live spacewalkable city, happy life!
Backcasting model can show optimized pathways towards LCS
Japan
Funded by Ministry of Environment, Japan and NIES
GH
G e
mis
sion
s pe
r cap
ita
High CarbonLocked in Society
Low Carbon Locked in Society
Development of Asia LCS Scenarios
Policy Packages for Asia LCS
Low Carbon Society
Backcasting
Leapfrog-Development
How to reach to Low Carbon Society in Asia ?
High Carbon Locked-in type Development
Climate catastrophe:Significant Damage to Economy and Eco- System
Time
(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS (2) Quantifying future LCS visions (3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting
16
Low-Carbon Scenarios forcountries and sub-countries in Asian
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS
17
Do we really succeed to explain necessity of low-carbon society?
• Avoid energy resource battles by using resources in efficient ways
• Develop many innovations to support global sustainable development
• Build well-designed city for comfortable and friendly transportation, living, offices, amusement space in energy-saving/ renewable energy rich way…
Good entrance point to climb up the mountain “happy, challengeable and sustainable society”
We need good scientific findings to innovate systems to pledge people’s activities for LCS
18181818
GHG Mitigation (ktCO2eq) As of 27 March 2009
[Trans] freight car (change of ownership from private to commercial)
[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners
[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of lights
[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners
[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of lights
[Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and saving in use
[Industry] Measures in the Petrochemical industry
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
-20,000
-40,000
0 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 240,000 280,000 320,000 360,000 400,000
[Residential] HEMS
[Trans] Clean Diesel
Alternative energy [Industry]
Energy efficient appliances [Residential]
Solar heater [Residential]
Cross-sectoral technologies [Industry]
PV [Commercial][Commercial] BEMS
・
[Trans] Energy efficiency improvement of ships, rails and air
[Transport] Bionergy
[Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and saving in use
[Transport] Measures to reduce service demands
[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of motors
Measures in F-gases
[Wastes] Measures in the waste sector
[Residential] PV
[Residential] High efficient water supply
[Trans] Conversion to electric vehicles
[Residential] Insulation[Agriculture] Process improvement of domestic animal excrement, reduction of manure
[Trans] Efficiency improvement[Commercial] Insulation
[Trans] Highbrid[Industry] Innovative processes
[Industry] High efficient power generation
[Industry] Energy saving and recovery
[Commercial] High efficient water supply
Marginal Abatement Cost to Reduce GHG emissions
in 2020 (Case III)
Miti
gatio
n co
sts
(Yen
/ktC
O2)
: Industry
: Commercial
: Agriculture
: Wastes
: F-Gas
: Residential
: Transportation
Japan
20
Further Information:Japan Scenarios and Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies (LCSs) (2008.6)
Special Issue on “Modelling Long- Term Scenarios for Low-Carbon Societies” CLIMATE POLICY 8 (2008)
Call for Action and Executive Summary of the Third Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project on “a Sustainable Low-Carbon Society” (2008.3)
All materials can be downloaded at the“Japan Low-Carbon Society 2050” homepage: http://2050.nies.go.jp
JapanLow CarbonSociety 2050
http://2050.nies.go.jp
Contact person: Junichi Fujino ([email protected])
21
22
Depicting socio-
economic visions in 2050
Estimating energy service
demands
Exploring innovations for energy demands
and energy supplies
Quantifying energy
demand and supply to estimate
CO2 emissions
Checking potentials for energy
supply
Achieving energy-related CO2
emissions target
Step4
Scenario Approach to Develop Japan Low-Carbon Society (LCS)
Step1
Step2
Step3
Step5
23
Vision A Vision B
Vivid, Technology-driven Slow, Natural-oriented
Urban/Personal Decentralized/Community
Technology breakthroughCentralized production /recycle
Self-sufficientProduce locally, consume locally
Comfortable and Convenient
Social and Cultural Values
2%/yr GDP per capita growth
1%/yr GDP per capita growth
Visions we prepared two different
but likely future societies for Japan
Akemi Imagawa
To achieve the 70% reduction goal by 2050, we investigated - which options should be selected,- when options should be introduced,- how much of each option should be introduced at each
stage,with reference of candidate options as prepared.
Current society
Economic activityCO2 Emission
2000 2050
CO2
CO2
Low carbon society
Economicactivity
CO2
BaU society
70% reductiontarget
Technology, infrastructure,
institution, management options
Economic activity
Actions
ActionsActions
2050 Society
1. Comfortable and Green Built EnvironmentEfficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built environment design. Intelligent buildings.
2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances. Initial cost reduction by rent and release system resulting in improved availability.
3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local foods for local cuisine
4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and renewable buildings materials and products.
5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and Industry Businesses aiming at creating and operating in low carbon market. Supplying low carbon and high value-added goods and services through energy efficient production systems.
12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and recognizing extraordinary contributions.
6. Swift and Smooth LogisticsNetworking seamless logistics systems with supply chain management, using both transportation and ICT infrastructure
7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient public transport
8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power and CCS-equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants
9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind, biomass and others.
10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply system with required infrastructure
11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by consumers, and public acknowledgement of such consumers
A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies Residential/commercial sector actions
Industrial sector actions
Transportation sector actions
Cross-sector actions
Energy supply sector actions
Press release on May 22, 2008
1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
Selection of residential buildings with high environmental efficiency. Commission of low carbon design to architects and construction companies.
Contribution of Building Owners
Development of low carbon architectural design methods. Investing for technology development in insulation technologies, etc. Sustenance of regional worker skills.
Contribution of Architects, etc.
Complex energy-saving performance metrics, high calculation costs, insufficient personnel
Complex energy-saving performance metrics, high calculation costs, insufficient personnel
Insufficient incentives for choosing energy-saving residences and buildings
Insufficient incentives for choosing energy-saving residences and buildings
Residential household energy demand:-40% (from FY2000 level)Building floor area energy demand:-40% (from FY2000 level)
Residential household energy demand:-40% (from FY2000 level)Building floor area energy demand:-40% (from FY2000 level)
Dissemination of diagnosis practitioners for energy-saving and CO2 reduction efficiencies
Organizing training classes and events for passing on knowledge of architectural technologies
Establishment and review of long-term energy-saving standard targets for buildings.
Introduction and expansion of residence and building labeling system for environmental efficiency (new building, renovation, mandatory indication upon leasing)
Barriers
Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction PeriodStandardization Period
Establishment of simplified evaluation method for environmental efficiency of residences and buildings
Implementation and expansion of tax breaks and low interest loan financing based on the environmental efficiency label
Solar and wind utilization design
Finance-friendly environmental
efficiency
Nurturing of worker skills & information
transmission
Future Objectives
2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000
BarriersFuture
Objectives
Example to translate model results into policy actions
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO2
emis
sion
s [M
tC]
80% in 2050
Japanese Emissions Targets towards 2050
Jump
Step
25% in 2020(incl. credit? )
HopKyoto Protocol during 2008-2012 (Sink 3.8%, credit 1.6 %)
Japan
Japan
New Prime MinisterHatoyama 鳩山由紀夫
Expectations on LCS-RNet: “How to deploy LCS study to real world?”
Research members
Application and development to actual LCS processes
Development and maintenance of study tools/models
Each country’s domestic/ local research institute
Policy makers
Central/ regional
government managers
NGOs
Proposal/ collaborative activity on LCS scenario and roadmap makng
Request of more practical, realistic roadmaps and also tractable tools for real world
Even we understand the necessity of low-carbon society…
• Difficult to have global agreement: COP15• Difficult to change and find easy solutions• Huge cost? Huge economic impact
(lower income, higher unemployment rate, lower GDP growth rate)?
日本政府中期目標達成分析タスクフォース1.モデル分析を行う研究機関国立環境研究所(増井利彦 社会環境 研究領域統合評価研究室 室長 システム
他(藤野純一、肱岡靖明、花岡達也)) - AIM/Enduse[Global] モデル ( 世界モデル ) - AIM/Enduse[Japan] モデル(日本モデル) - AIM/CGE[Japan] モデル(経済モデル)地球環境産業技術研究機構(秋元圭吾 研究 他)システム グループ グループリーダー - RITE モデル( DNE21 +)(世界モデル)日本エネルギー経済研究所(伊藤浩吉 常務理事 他) - エネ研モデル(日本モデル)日本経済研究センター(猿山純夫 研究統括部 担当部長 他) - 日経センター・一般均衡モデル(経済モデル) - 日経センター・マクロモデル(経済モデル)慶應義塾大学産業研究所(野村浩二 商学部教授) - KEOモデル(経済モデル)2.モデル分析を評価する有識者 有村 俊秀 上智大学経済学部経済学科准教授 飯田 哲也 環境エネルギー政策研究所所長◎ 植田 和弘 京都大学大学院経済学研究科教授 栗山 浩一 京都大学農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻教授 土居 丈朗 慶應義塾大学経済学部教授 屋井 鉄雄 東京工業大学大学院総合理工学研究科教授 山口 光恒 東京大学先端科学技術研究センター特任教授
5 research teams
7 experts
Identification of necessary actions
Diffusion of green design building
Certification & registration of labeling
Incentives to the higher performance building
Organizing training classes and events
Establishment of simplified evaluation
method
dissemination of diagnosis practitioners
Lack in information of environmental performance of the building
Relatively high cost compared to general building
Lack in knowledge of regional specific climatic conditions
Too complicated calculation required
Lack in personnel who can implement
the calculation
Indirect options
Direct options
Barrier breaking
Step by step strategiesStep by step strategies
20091213-City Center, Copenhagen